Dover Corporation

Good morning and welcome to Dover's second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Speakers today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Brad Serapak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Andre Geliuk, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, please press the star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded and your participation implies consent to our recording. of the call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Andre Geliuk. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Christal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. This call will be available on our website for playback through August 3rd, and the audio portion will be archived for three months. Dover provides non-GAAP information, and reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures are included in our investor supplement and presentation materials, which are available on our website. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements that are subject to uncertainties and risks. We caution everyone to be guided in their analysis of Dover by referring to our Form 10-K and our most recent Form 10-Q for a list of factors that could cause our results to differ from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by law. With that, I will turn this call over to Rich.

Thanks, Andre. Good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results were strong across the board, and we are especially pleased with the top-line performance considering the complicated operating environment. The demand environment in the quarter was robust and continued the momentum from the first quarter And despite posting a 30% organic top line growth, we execute two with a sequentially higher order backlog. I'll focus on the bigger picture here and highlight again what we believe is underappreciated aspect of our portfolio. It's organic growth potential. Our revenue in the second quarter was above the pre-pandemic comparable quarter in 2019 and resulted in the highest revenue first half of the year in recent Dover history. meaning that the majority of our markets are not simply recovering, but are operating in a growth environment. New order bookings remain robust, with all segments posting book to bill above one, resulting in sequential, comparable growth backlog, as I mentioned earlier. Operating margin conversion was solid for the quarter as a result of good execution at the operating level and a healthy mix of products delivered in the quarter. All of this is well and good, but make no mistake, the operating environment remains very challenging. It's been 90 days since the last time we were asked the question about the duration of quote-unquote transitory inflation. As we've discussed after the first quarter, we had some line of sight on raw materials cost trajectory coming into the year, which allowed us to get in front from a price-cost perspective. We have also proactively given our operating companies some leeway on working capital decisions to build inventories based on the backlog trajectory. What we underestimated was the total cost impacts of a strained logistics system and tight labor market that shows no signs of abating. This has had two knock-on effects on our results. First, the absolute costs of inbound and outbound freight were materially higher. And second, and more important, the costs associated with production line stoppages due to lack of labor and components caused by trends in time, uncertainty, and overall supply chain tightness. I'll deal with the market dynamics and supply chain impact by business later in the presentation, but based on our experience so far, I am concerned about the notion that the current economy needs to be further stimulated and second-order implications of that line of thinking, and I'll leave it at that. Our teams have done a commendable job navigating these choppy waters and continue shipping products and driving robust margin conversion and strong cash flow. Overall, we believe that our operating model has been an advantage to us as we are largely a localized producer and are not overly reliant on extended supply chains. This is clearly reflected in our top line performance in the quarter. As we look to the second half of the year, our order backlogs make us confident in our top line trajectory. Our forecasts do not incorporate much in the way of an improvement nor deterioration of the operating challenges that we've witnessed during the first half. We're just going to have to power through and work with our suppliers and customers to adapt to the prevailing conditions. We are raising our annual revenue growth guidance to 15% to 17% and our adjusted EPS guidance to $7.30 a share to $7.40 a share. We also expect stronger cash flow as a result of the improved margin performance. I'll skip to slide four, which provides a more detailed overview of our results in the course. Engineer products revenue was up 25% organically. Vehicle services was strong across all geographies and product lines and had record bookings during the quarter. Industrial automation demand was strong across the automotive sector and in China. Aerospace and defense posted an all-time record revenue during the second quarter. Waste hauling was flat year over year as the business continues to wrestle with component and labor availability issues that are constraining product shipments. Importantly, waste handling bookings were robust and the backlog was up nearly 75% versus the prior year. Engineered products is our most exposed segment to input and logistics cost inflation due to materials intensity, contractual pricing dynamics, and relatively higher share of international sourcing in vehicle services. You can see it in the segment's margin was flat year over year as strong volume leverage and pricing increases were offset by input cost and freight inflation as well as labor and component availability challenges. Fueling Solutions was up 25% organically in the quarter, and the strength of the above-ground and below-ground retail fueling globally, including some remaining tailwinds from the EMV opportunity in the U.S. following the April deadline. Vehicle wash has been strong this year, and our recent ICS acquisition, integration, and performance is ahead of plan. Activity in China in fuel transport remains subdued, but there are signs of Chinese operators reopening their tendering activities. Order backlogs are up 29%, and we expect our software and service business, hanging hardware, vehicle wash, and compliance-driven underground product offerings to help offset the anticipated headwinds from the EMV roll-off. The segment posted another strong sequential margin performance on higher volumes, strategic pricing initiatives, productivity actions, and mix. Sales and imaging and ID improved 20% organically. The core marketing and coding business grew well on strong printer demand across all geographies, with China and India driving particularly strong performance. Serialization software also grew ahead of expectations. The digital texting printing business was up significantly against a comparable quarter when much of their operations were locked down in northern Italy last year, but nevertheless, The business remains impacted, though we are beginning to see growth in demand for large printers, particularly in Asia, and continued growth in ink consumable volumes. Margins improved by 420 basis points on volume, leverage, pricing, and productivity initiatives. Pumps and process solution posted another banner quarter at 34% organic growth on improved volumes across all businesses except precision components. Demand for biopharma connectors and pumps continued to be strong, driven by vaccine, and non-COVID related pharmaceutical tailwinds. Industrial pumps grew by over 20% on robust end customer demand with particular strength in China. Polymer processing shipments grew year over year and continued strength in Asia and is gaining momentum in the US market. Precision components are slightly down in the quarter, though demand conditions have stabilized. and are recovering well in some end markets and geography, giving us confidence in the second half trajectory. Margins in the quarter expanded by 910 basis points on strong volumes, favorable mix, and pricing. Top line growth in refrigeration and food equipment continued its impressive clip, posting a 44% organic growth. Revenue in the beverage can making doubled in the quarter and bookings nearly doubled as well. The business is now booked into late 2022. Food retail saw broad-based growth across its product lines. Door cases are now booking into 2022. And the demand for natural refrigerants is driving outside growth in our systems business in the U.S. and in Europe. Backlog in food retail is now double where it was last year. The heat exchange of business grew on robust demand in all geographies with rebounding order rates in commercial HVAC in North America and record order intake in EMEA, extending lead times for heat pumps and boilers. Food service equipment was up in the quarter on a tough comp. Chain, no, actually on an easy comp, and chain restaurant demand is robust, but the institutional market is still recovering. Margins in the segment improved by 580 basis points, driven by strong volumes and productivity actions, partially offset by availability issues with insulation, raw materials, and labor and food retail operations, which we expect to subside in the second half. And I'll pass it on to Brad here.

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. I'm on slide six of the presentation deck. On the top of the page is the revenue bridge. Our top line organic revenue increased by 30% in the quarter with all five segments posting growth with particular strength in our pumps and process solutions and refrigeration and food equipment segments. FX benefited the top line by about 5% or $68 million. Acquisitions added $19 million of revenue in the quarter. There were no year-over impacts from dispositions. The revenue breakdown by geography reflects strong growth in North America, Europe, and Asia, our three largest regions. The U.S., our largest market, posted 25% organic growth in the quarter on solid trading conditions in retail fueling, marketing and coding, biopharma, food retail, and can making. Europe grew by 30% on strong shipments in vehicle aftermarket, biopharma, and industrial pumps, and heat exchangers. All of Asia was up 38% organically on growth in biopharma, marketing and coding, plastics and polymers, heat exchangers, and retail fueling demand outside of China. China, which represents a little over half of our business in Asia, was up 33% organically in the quarter. Moving to the bottom of the page, bookings were up 61% organically, reflecting continued broad-based momentum across the portfolio. In the quarter, we saw organic growth across all five segments. Going to the earnings bridges now on slide seven. On the top of the chart, adjusted EBIT was up 173 million and margin improved 400 basis points as improved volumes, continued productivity initiatives, and strategic pricing offset input cost inflation. Adjusted segment EBITDA was up 350 basis points. Going to the bottom of the chart, adjusted net earnings improved by $135 million as higher segment EBIT more than offset higher taxes, as well as higher corporate expenses, primarily relating to compensation accruals and deal expenses. The effective tax rate, excluding discrete tax benefits, was approximately 21.7% for the quarter compared to 21.6% in the prior year. Discrete tax benefits were $11 million in the quarter or $9 million higher than 2020 for approximately $0.07 of a year-over-year EPS impact. Right-sizing and other costs were $11 million in the quarter or $8 million after tax. Now on slide eight. We're pleased with the cash performance thus far this year, with free cash flow of $364 million, a $96 million increase over last year. Free cash flow conversion stands at 9% of revenue for the first half of the year, 80 basis points higher than the comparable period last year, despite a significant investment in working capital and the impact of prior year tax deferrals that did not repeat this year. Also, as we discussed last quarter, we remain focused on delivering against our customer strong order rates and built inventory to ensure we can meet the current demand in the second half of the year. With that, I'm going to turn it back to Rich.

Okay, thanks, Brad. Let's try to pause here for a moment because this is a complicated slide, but I think it's a transparent view of what we think is going to happen over the second half of the year and includes our current view of the outlook of the second half by segment and provides context of how we are thinking about full-year guidance, which I'll get to shortly. Remember, the demand environment is strong across the portfolio, so let's not try to get overexcited about headwinds or mixed commentary. We managed it in H1, and we'll do it again in H2, but this is the reality of the situation in terms of the dynamic of the business. We expect top-line and engineered products to remain robust through the remainder of the year based on solid backlog and good bookings trajectory. Momentum in the vehicle aftermarket industrial automation should continue to while we expect the improved order rates and backlogs and solid waste handling and industrial winches to drive solid year-over-year growth in the second half. Aerospace and defense is expected to be modestly down, largely as a result of a difficult year-over-year comparison on project delivery. Supply chain constraints and cost inflation are expected to continue to have a material impact on this segment. Waste handling and automotive aftermarket businesses are our largest business exposed to the trifecta of raw materials inflation, extended supply chains, and a larger proportion of assembly labor. Our management teams are winning in the marketplace considering the headwinds, which is reflected in the growth rate and order books. But we are clearly at the point of having to defend our market position at the expense of the price-cost dynamic, which will be detrimental to near-term margins, but not material, slightly detrimental. We expect fueling solutions to provide organic growth for the full year above our initial expectations on the back of growth in systems and software, recovering underground demand, and vehicle wash. Recall that above-ground business has a tough second half due to the North American EMV volumes. Margins of fueling solutions will be up for the full year, though we expect Modest margin compression in the second half relative to the first half on slightly lower volumes and negative product and geographic mix, which I think that we covered at the end of Q1, as with less North America volume due to EMV and more international volume that's slightly delivered. Trading conditions and imaging and ID are expected to continue their positive trajectory for the remainder of the year. Our core marketing and coding business is expected to maintain its growth trajectory with services and serialization products positively impacting performance. Digital textile printing is recovering, and we expect the end of the year we will well above 2020 but below its 2019 high watermark. We expect operating margins to remain stable in the second half. The pumps and process solutions should see a solid second half. Demand for biopharma and hygienic applications remain robust, with customers now placing orders into 2022. We are strategically investing in additional clean room capacity for this platform to support its growth. Trading conditions and industrial pumps are strong and driven by robust and customer demand as opposed to channel stocking. Plastics and polymers is expected to be steady, though this business faces a difficult comparable period due to a strong performance last year. Precision components will return to growth in the second half as OEM new builds will supplant increased activities at refineries and petrochemical plants. We expect margins to remain strong in this segment, but we may see some minor dilution due to mix on the back half as our precision components business recovers But the absolute profit trajectory of this segment is in very good shape. With its large backlog and high sustained order rates, refrigeration and food equipment will finish the year strong, with double-digit growth expected for all operating businesses. New orders in core food retail business have been healthy across the product segments, and the tailwinds from our leadership position in natural refrigerants are driving outside growth for our systems business. We expect to begin to significantly ramp up shipments of our new digital door product. Belvac continues to work through its record backlog. They are now taking orders for late 22 and even into 2023. Our heat exchanger business is positioned well as they are seeing strong order rates across all verticals and geographies. We have been investing in capacity and new capabilities in these two businesses and are well positioned to capture the growth. Food service equipment demand is normalized and returned to growth at restaurant chains and institutional business continues to improve. We expect this business to post solid growth in the second half, albeit against a low comparable. We expect margins to continue their seasonally adjusted upward trajectory for the remainder of the year. Improved volume leverage, productivity gains, and positive product mix and business mix should more than offset operational challenges related to component and labor shortages, increased logistics costs, and input cost inflation. Moving to slide 10. We remain on the front foot investing behind our business to support the growth, productivity, and long-term portfolio enhancement. Organic high return on investment projects remain our top priority for capital allocation. On the left hand, you can see a sample of the current growth and productivity CapEx projects that we are working on that add up to $75 million of spend. The project mixes balance between growth and productivity, with a skew towards new capacity as supporting long-term growth in key priority portions of our portfolio. Our next priority in capital allocation is strategic bolt-down acquisitions that enhance our long-term growth profile and attractiveness of our portfolio. You can see that all four of our recent acquisitions were in either digital or high-growth single-use pumps markets. These are small additions, but we are very excited about scaling up these highly innovative technologies as part of our . We remain on the hunt for acquisitions, have a solid M&A pipeline as we enter the second half. Our current dry powder on a full year 21 basis is approximately $3.3 billion. Our revised annual guidance is on page 11. We are increasing our top line forecast to reflect the durability and demand trends that we are seeing. We now expect to achieve 15% to 17% all-in revenue growth this year. Our $0.55 adjusted EPS guidance increase is mindful of the supply chain and input challenges we summarized earlier in the presentation, and we expect free cash flow generation to edge higher as well due to margin improvements. On the bottom of the page, we show our expected 21 performance in a multi-year perspective. We remain on track to deliver strong returns through a combination of robust organic revenue growth, strong margin expansion, and disciplined capital allocation. Before wrapping up, I want to thank everybody at Dover for their perseverance and accomplishments executing in today's challenging environment. And with that, Andre will open it up to Q&A.

If you would like to ask a question, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key on your telephone keypad. We ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. Your first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

Good morning, guys. Thanks, Andy. Rich, can you give more color into what you're seeing in terms of margin progression in pumps and process and refrigeration? I know you just talked about it, but if you look at pumps and process, you've been sustaining that 30% level. Can you keep doing that? I know you talked about a little dilution there, and then on the refrigeration side, how would you assess the sort of march toward that mid-teens margin goal that you've talked about?

On the pumps and process side, a solution side of the portfolio, nothing deteriorates in the second half. It's just pure mix. So what I was trying to make clear is one of the businesses that suffered greatly last year and is beginning to improve now as a precision components business, that is slightly dilutive to margins, but in terms of absolute profit, it's a positive. So I wouldn't get overly chuffed about that. On the refrigeration side... We expect third quarter margins to be the highest of the year, just based on seasonality and the size of our backlog and everything else. Quite frankly, we're a bit disappointed in the margin in Q2. I don't think that's the fault of management, but we've had a really difficult time with freight costs and components and labor availability. So on one hand, I think... The effort on their part to get the product out the door was excellent. The bottom line is we disappointed a bunch of customers in our ability to get the product out because of the supply chain issues. So the trajectory is good. And as you can see from the backlogs, you know, this is more of a 2022 story now more than a 21 story.

That's helpful. And then we know you want to be conservative given all the cross currents out there, but you know, you obviously are forecasting revenue to come off a bit from Q2 with the backlog up 70%. You talked about EMV coming down, supply chain, you know, the virus is still out there, but you didn't mention your release that you have visibility already into 22. So maybe you can just talk about that visibility and You know, obviously it's in refrigeration, but is it across all the businesses so that organic growth could actually be quite strong as you go into 22?

Well, look, I mean, I'm not going to complain about the size of our backlog. And if you run the calc on it, we couldn't get it out the door over the balance of the earth if we wanted to. So it's up to execution, number one. And, you know, with the exception of Belvac and Mog, most of our business is short cycle. so we'll see at the end of Q3. At the end of the day, Annie, it's the same discussion we had at the end of Q1. The demand is there. It's up to us to get it out the door. I think that when all is said and done, I think that we probably are going to do better on average because I think that we're advantaged from a supply chain point of view versus some of our competitors, and that's what's going to be winning in the marketplace. It's not so much pricing dynamic right now it's whether you can get the product out the door so we you know I think that right now I don't in my tenure here we've never had backlogs like this and it's a good problem to have thank you Rich thanks so our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JP Morgan hey good morning guys morning Steve

Just kind of digging into Andy's question a little bit of a different way. I think normally you guys convert your first half orders relatively close as a percentage into sales from first half to second half. Obviously that suggests kind of a stupidly high revenue number for the year relative to your guidance, like $700 million higher. Obviously, there's supply constraints and things maybe getting pushed into 22. Can you maybe just talk about the mechanics of this backlog? What's converting? What's different when it comes to the conversion from orders into sales this cycle, if you will? I mean, I'm sure it's much more extended, obviously, this cycle. Maybe just mechanically, is there double ordering going on? Is there... You know, are guys pushing deliveries into 22? You know, just a little more of the mechanics around that.

Sure. You know, I think that we discussed it a little bit at the end of Q1. Clearly, based on our backlogs of exiting Q1, then Q2, because of the demand function, was going to be higher than kind of what a normal seasonality would be, just because of where the demand was. So it was just purely a function where you could get it out the door or not. at the end of the day. So that's the good news. So I don't think you can look at Q2 and just say, well, I'm going to go back and look at history, and then Q3 is this much higher than Q2, and then it's going to spit out a number, as you said, that's just not realistic, quite frankly. So as point number one, so I'd be careful about calculating seasonality based on history just because of the strength of the first half, just because of the recovery coming out of the pandemic. In terms of the backlog, yeah, we'd have to prick it down because we've got some long cycle backlog. I mean, we mentioned Belvac, which is booking into 2023 now, is a piece of that that will just convert over time. We don't believe that there's double ordering going on right now. From what we can tell... It looks like it's just a recognition by the customer base of the constraints that are out in the system that in previous periods you just didn't have to put the orders in. You want to get in line. So that is what is expanding the backlog. I mean, I think you asked the question at the end of Q1 about this whole issue of channel stocking, destocking, and we took a close look. I mean, we grew our industrial pumps business by 20% in the quarter, or over that, actually. So we took a close look at channel checks, and we don't see that inventory building up at our distributors. It's just passing right through. So that's good news at the end of the day because it means it's fundamental demand. So I think it's two issues. We've got some long-cycle businesses that are booking out well further than historically they used to, and then I think on our short-cycle businesses, I think there's a recognition of the constraints in the supply chain that's just making everybody get in line further out than they normally would have.

And I guess on that front, on the working capital side, is there any unwind of this big inventory issue and receivables, I guess not receivables, because your sales are going to continue to grow, but on the inventory side, I mean, any flush you see in the second half, I know you raised your free cash flow guidance, but, you know, if there's anything to nitpick at, this quarter would be, you know, the working capital build was kind of sizable. Any unwind there in the second half?

Well, I mean, I think the working capital build has been to our advantage, and we'll see after everybody reports in terms of top line. I mean, having the product available... or having the components available to convert has been an advantage to us. I don't see anything fundamentally deteriorating in our working capital. We'll see in the second half. I would expect to see liquidation in Q4. And if we don't on the industrial working capital side, that means that the demand outlook for 22 is robust. And you know what? We may carry it again, but I don't think that That just means higher earnings in the outside period. So right now, sitting here, we would expect free cash flow to be up, no real deterioration in terms of the metrics of working capital. We'll leave it at that to see how order rates progress over the balance of the year.

Great. Thanks a lot.

Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Hey, Jeff. Hey, Rich, maybe just touch a little bit more on M&A, right? I mean, you know, you've been doing some bolt-ons, but as you know, you've got kind of multibillion-dollar capacity here. Activity seems to be picking up in your neighborhood, right? I wonder if, A, you see things kind of trading away from you that you are interested in, or just kind of the actionability of what you might have in your pipeline line.

Yeah, without getting into the specifics, I think that we lost out on one deal that we chased pretty hard due to valuation. Some of the other ones that you've seen transact, we're well aware of those assets and we're not participating in them. Bottom line is it's a good news, bad news story. I mean, the bad news is the valuations are what they are. And I'll leave it at that. The good news is because valuations are what they are, then there's a lot building up that wants to come to market because I think there's a recognition of these are the salad days for multiples of not even earnings anymore, but of whatever you want to choose to be the multiple. So we're looking at a lot of stuff right now. We're going to remain disciplined. I mean, the things that we've got there are small, but we think that the network effect And the leverage of those small products is, you know, our expectation of returns are going to be very high in the deals that we did. And we'll see in the second half.

And unrelated, different question. Just back to kind of price and how you're managing all this. You know, what are you doing differently? I'm sure you can use the demand pulse to just extract price if people want the product bad enough. But are you able to drive deposits, do other things to just kind of improve the commercial terms of how you're transacting with folks?

It depends. I think because demand is high and capacity is tight, you can manage profitability by customer probably a little bit more efficiently than in the past. but I think in certain of our businesses, and I'll go back to what I talked about in engineered products, when you get to the third price increase, do you actually go for the fourth price increase? Because the fact of the matter is you run the risk of demand destruction in the short term, and that's not good. So part of my comment about engineered products, especially around ESG and VSG is at a certain point, if we go negative in terms of price cost, but the volume remains robust and the installed base goes up, that's a better trade because we believe that some of these supply chain constraints and raw materials will roll off hopefully sooner than later. And you really go back to your core customers and say, sorry, but here comes another price increase. I think that we're managing differently across the portfolio, but we don't want to force short-term demand destruction by trying to just be draconian.

Great. Makes sense. Active management. Appreciate it. Thanks a lot.

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

Hi, yes, good morning. Andrew. Hi, how are you? Just a question just to sort of to continue sort of to talk about capital allocation. You did sort of highlight over $3 billion in dry powder. You know, how should we think? You know, you sort of clearly have established yourself as one of the most consistent operators post-COVID. So how do you think about sort of the pace that you would like, right, you know, assume that valuations stay where they are But how do you see the pace of capital allocation per year in a normalized environment, assuming that prices stay where they are?

I don't know how to answer that. Look, I'll put it this way, Andrew. You know, what we're realistically looking at right now is about two-thirds of our dry powder. Now, do we execute on that or not? I'm not sure, but just in terms of the amount of targets and a realistic view of what the value of those targets are is about two-thirds of our dry powder. So it's, you know, it's quite a bit at the end of the day. But it's a realistic view, and, you know, there are some deals that we just can't get there. I mean, this – This notion that return on invested capital made a quantum leap from three to five years over the last 12 months. I find an interesting dynamic and I'm not here to criticize anybody's deals. Everybody's got their own strategy to a certain extent. So, um, my, like I said before, to the, to Jeff's question, the bad news is valuation. The good news is there's a lot of assets that see valuations of transactions in the marketplace. So the amount of opportunities that are out there and ones that are rumored to come is actually proactive to capital deployment.

That's a great answer. Thank you. And then the other question, maybe I missed it, but did you comment on what the price increase was in the second quarter and what are you modeling for the second half of the year?

Price to raw materials improves in the second half of the year versus the first half. The outlier is logistics costs and line stock. This is really the negative headwind. But price-cost on a raw material side, it's actually better in the second half than the first half.

But what was the price component of organic growth in the second quarter?

Two? Less than two, yeah, around that number. Not that significant. You know, it really comes down to, Andrew, it comes down to the timing of when those price increases. Rich is saying, you know, there's multiple times that price is being put in. So it's not one big bang of January 1. It kind of spreads across the year. So you get that effect.

Nope, totally got it. Looking at your price reaction today, I don't think anybody's complaining about your execution. Thanks so much. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Mellius Research.

Good morning, guys.

Hey, Scott.

Hey, Scott.

Is there any way to kind of convert the – Rich, you made the comment of disappointing customers. I mean, can you convert that to kind of an on-time delivery number to us and kind of what's normal and what you're at now? or any way to kind of think about it, you know, other than subjectively?

Well, I mean, there's really two dynamics. I think that our lead times are disappointing to our customers because, you know, you go for years where you can convert orders within with intra month in some of our businesses where that's just not possible. And that, And that's where you get this function of now everybody's seen it for six months, and so it's got a knock-on effect of backlogs because there's a recognition of this is more durable than maybe everybody thought. So the positive is it builds your backlogs at the end of the day. The negative is, you know, our lead times have stretched out. Now you couple that with in certain of our businesses where we've had, some pretty difficult logistics constraints and, in some cases, labor availability, and then you've got disappointment of we say we're going to deliver the product on X date, and we miss it, and that's happened. So we quantify it more in dollars and cents. I'd have to go look up in terms of on-time delivery. I think across the board, It's probably okay, but as I mentioned before, a business like VSG that's got probably our longest extended supply chain is suffering the most as opposed to printing an ID that just doesn't have to deal with the reality of that.

That's a fair point. Just to follow up, all the questions on M&A I think are appropriate just given where your leverage ratio is, but You could flip it over and just say, well, valuations are crazy. Why not sell some assets here? Because you do have a fairly broad portfolio and some things seem to fit better than others. And is there any appetite to doing so?

No, I think that's a fair comment. I guess that's all I can say about that. But you're right, right? Valuations inbound and outbound are what they are. And you can manage that both ways. Okay.

I'll pass it on. Thank you, guys. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to circle back maybe to slide nine. So just to try and understand, essentially is the point here that sort of this is largely relating to a half-on-half margin outlook. And so sort of company-wide second half segment margins are maybe down slightly versus the first half. And then within that, you've sort of got DEP and DFS maybe down a bit, DRFE flattish, and then DII and DPPS flat to up. half-on-half. Is that the right sort of summary of that slide, just to make sure it's sort of half-on-half we're looking at?

Yeah, I think that if you overlay my comments onto this slide, they're going to match, right? I think that we're just giving you an honest assessment based on the prevailing market conditions of where we have headwinds operationally, price cost, and then some commentary on mix, which is a commentary H1 to H2. So... As I mentioned in my comments, I don't think we have to be overly dramatic about it. We've managed it quite well in the first half, and I don't expect us to manage it differently in the second half, but we have to recognize that there are certain decisions that we're making, like if you look at DEP in terms of price-cost, which whether from an absolute profit point of view may be in good shape with slightly dilutive margins because we're just making a choice to chase the volumes. which I think is appropriate in that case.

That's very clear. And then secondly, you know, looking at the cash flow, you've addressed the working capital point once or twice. Capital spending's up a decent amount this year. I think a sort of low double digit type increase year on year. I'm just trying to think about sort of the outlook from here. You know, how much does that reflect the sort of catch up spend? You laid out some projects in the deck, you know, after a weaker capex number last year for obvious reasons. And how much is this sort of a sustainably higher level? You know, just trying to understand, you know, how your capital intensity looks on the capex front beyond 2021. Should we see capex normalized lower again or be flat when we look at next year?

Well, I mean, I think that 20, we can just throw out, right? I mean, at the end of the day, everybody reacted to the change in market conditions appropriately. So, you know, as a percent of revenue, we'll see where we end up. And I don't want to do the calculations here, but as a percent of revenue, 19 to 21 is probably flattish. And I would expect that to be the same going into 22. I mean, we've One of these days, we're going to do a presentation on our returns for organic investment, and they absolutely blow away anything that we do inorganically. So to the extent that we find the projects going into 22, we'll spend it internally. But right now, sitting here today, do I expect it as a percent of a revenue to go up dramatically in 22? No.

That's helpful because I think, yeah, there's a lot of sort of broader chat about, you know, CapEx super cycles and this and that, which I think is a bit odd. It doesn't sound like from Dover's sort of internal outlook that there's anything game-changing in terms of CapEx intensity as we look out?

Well, you know, I think that there is an interesting argument, and I would agree with it, that to the extent that labor inflation is durable and that supply chains, the issues that we're having, supply chains will improve, but not dramatically. There's an argument to be made that the returns on automation are going to be better than they've been over the last five to six years. And I would agree with that.

Interesting.

Thanks very much. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.

Thanks, Joe.

Thanks, Sue. So I'm going to ask Julian's question maybe a little bit more explicitly on the margins for the second half of the year. And so it sounds like You know, Rich, you guys have done a great job managing this historically. When I look at slide nine, you know, it's basically what I'm hearing from you is that incremental margins are probably going to be pretty comparable to the kind of 30% range that you just put up in the second quarter. Maybe there's some slight pressure, but that's kind of how you're thinking about this for the second half. Is that fair?

Yeah, I think that we're just trying to be transparent, Joe, right? It's very nice. You know, we could have put up the second quarter results and said everything's great. and see you next quarter and gotten away with it. But I think that we have to recognize that there are some issues that need to be overcome. To us, I don't think that we should get overly excited about it. It's just the facts are the facts. We've dealt with them at H1. If anything, it becomes more of a mix issue in Q2, and that's not problematic. So as I mentioned before, DRFE is going to have its best quarter of the year from a revenue and an operating margin point of view. So that's great in terms of absolute profit, but it is dilutive to overall group margins. So am I going to tell them to slow down to protect the margin? No, at the end of the day. And that's the case in a couple other cases. A couple of our businesses, I mean, if precision components on the back half revenue increases, but it's slightly dilutive to a, let's call it a very robust margin that we're clocking at pumps and process solutions, again, I don't think it's overly problematic, but we're just trying to guide everybody of, hey, look at the margin in Q2, but, you know, Read from a seasonality point of view. If I go back and look at history, Q3 is X percent higher than Q2. So let me just model that and run down the field. I think that would give you a number that, you know, we would like to get to, but I'm not entirely sure, just because of the pull forward in terms of the demand and the operating leverage that we're getting in Q2.

We've got to be a little bit careful with the conversion to the back half as well, because price materials does impact conversion. So just keep that in mind is that that has nothing to do with absolute profits per se, as Rich has talked about, but the conversion rate is influenced by that.

Sure. No, that, that makes sense. And, and, uh, fully appreciate all the color you guys are providing, I guess, I guess my, my one follow-up and maybe just kind of focused on the near term for a second. Um, when you think about third quarter, uh, you know, from a, from a pure revenue and, and, and, and EPS perspective, Would you expect it to be up versus the second quarter or, you know, similar? I'm just curious, like, how you guys are thinking about it with the way that the backlog is kind of converting into your business.

Similar, I guess, is the answer.

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.

Your next question comes from the line of Mitch Debris with Baird.

Yes, thank you for taking the question. I also want to ask a question about slide nine. You know, you've got... At least next quarter we're going to have one slide.

All right, go ahead.

We're going to kill that slide for next quarter.

You've got positive commentary on price costs for DI and DPPS. And, you know, just kind of looking through your disclosures in the queue, these were the segments with frankly, the smallest pricing gains in a quarter, both of them a little over 1%. So I find that to be a little bit counterintuitive, right? You've got less of a pricing tailwind in these two, yet you expect better price-cost dynamic. Can you maybe put a finer point on this as to what's happening with these two?

Well, I think Brad addressed it in an earlier question. You know, everybody, you know... we don't do our pricing on January 1st, right? It's done differently. There's signaling effect to manage backlogs. So you basically, in certain businesses will say, we're going to do a price increase at the end of Q1, meaning so you lose that clocking period at Q1, so it actually ramps over the balance of the year on the comp. So again, it is just a reflection of the timing of those price increases and kind of the H1, H2 effect of that.

Okay, got it. Sorry I missed that. Then I guess my follow-up, you know, just sort of looking at your order intake, right, in refrigeration and food equipment, pumps and process solutions, in both these segments you're running well ahead of what we saw pre-COVID. And I guess my question is, again, If we're not talking about some kind of a capex super cycle here, what is really happening with these end markets? And is it fair for us to think that this is sustainable to some degree into 2022? Or is there a hangover to be expected here as things normalize? Thank you.

Let me see. I think I've tried to answer this about 15 different ways. I think that that backlogs are building, which is a reflection of constraints in the system. So I think when we get to next year, it's going to be an interesting dynamic because as those constraints come down, then lead times are going to come down, which is going to be negative to backlogs to a certain extent. But that, you know, I think that Steve talked asked the question or maybe wrote it earlier today. I think we've got to be careful with absolute backlogs and doing math on it and trying to extrapolate revenues into the future. I mean, the bottom line is that backlogs build and shrink based on lead times and market conditions and everything else. So could I envision a scenario where backlogs come down? Yes. Do I think that's overly problematic? No, because to a certain extent, that means the headwinds that we have supply chain logistics are getting better, which is better for margins at the end of the day.

Yeah. So, Rich, to clarify, I wasn't talking about backlog because I totally agree with what you're saying. I was wondering more about your bookings, right, which have been very, very strong year to date, even relative to pre-COVID.

Yeah. Well, look, I mean, you know, I think that we are executing really, really well in pumps and process solutions. I mean, we made a presentation on that, on what we do. thought was coming at the end of 20. And look, and as I mentioned at the end of Q1, we think that we are in a minimum of three-year cycle of the demand function on DRFE, which is positive. And it's not just, you know, it's across the board. It's not just door cases, it's systems business, it's SWEP on the heat exchangers, and it's Belvac, all of which we believe are in a multi-year cycle.

Great. Thanks for the call.

Thanks.

Your last question comes from the line of Dean Dre with RBC Capital Markets.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Morning. Morning. Hey, no, we covered a lot of ground here. It came up multiple times about component and labor shortages. So, Rich, if you could just take us through, like, where is it most acute today on the component side? Is it semiconductors, printed circuit boards? Are you qualifying new suppliers? So that's the component side. And then on the labor side, any color there, unfilled positions, are you expecting a significant step up in labor costs as this needs to adjust? Take us through that if you could.

Oh, boy. Well, we've got a pretty wide portfolio. I'll make some general comments about the components. They're all tight. They're more problematic if they're large and imported, because if you take a look at what's going on in the logistics supply chain in the Port of Los Angeles and all that, it is a bloody mess right now. which only impacts a small portion of our portfolio, because as I mentioned in my comments, at the end of the day, we think that we're winning in the marketplace because we don't have a lot of instances of that. If you've got very long supply chains and it's containerized freight coming out of Asia back to North America to fulfill demand, you're suffering, quite frankly. On the labor side, it's purely in our operations that I have a higher propensity of assembly labor. And for all the reasons that we can understand, that's been difficult. I think it's not getting worse as we move through the second quarter, which is the good news. So hopefully in September, when some of these government influence in terms of of the labor market begins to roll off that it will get better and everybody's gonna go back to school in September. So our view right now is it's probably gonna remain difficult through August. And I think that we're hopeful in September that the situation gets better.

That's real helpful. And then last one from me, just you talked about this last quarter and how did it play out where you said you were gonna give the business units more autonomy in managing their own working capital that you gave them the green light, you know, go ahead and build inventory. And I know there was some surprise there because you hadn't done that before, but how has that worked out? Is that going to be a permanent, was that a one-time event that you needed to get in front of this demand? But just, you know, some color there would be helpful. Thanks.

Well, I mean, if the demand holds up, then we'll continue to kind of give them that latitude because the absolute profit versus the carrying cost of the working capital, you know, the math works, I guess the best way I can say it. I would expect if we get improvement in the logistics supply chain that it will come down naturally because that's what's really driving it at the end of the day. We're basically giving the green light to everybody of you've got the backlog. Don't be reticent of trying to get the subcomponents in because we want to convert.

That's real helpful. Thank you.

Thanks.

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer period and Dover's second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.