Devon Energy Corporation

Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call

11/8/2023

spk00: I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin. Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and updated outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Moncrief, our president and CEO, Clay Gaspar, our chief operating officer, Jeff Rittenhour, our chief financial officer, and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
spk08: Thank you, Scott. It's a pleasure to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us. For today, I plan to focus my comments on the trajectory of our business for the remainder of 2023 and highlight the steps we're taking to further improve capital efficiency as we head into 2024. Now, let's start with a brief review of our financial and operating performance. In the third quarter, Devon delivered a production per share growth rate of 10% year over year. This strong growth rate was fueled by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin, accretive acquisitions, and an opportunistic share repurchases over the past year. On a barrel of oil equivalent basis, our total volumes were within the guidance range, but oil volumes were slightly softer due to select well performance in the Williston, coupled with minor infrastructure constraints in the Delaware Basin. We will cover the Delaware in greater detail later in the call, but these constraints were temporary and have a visible pathway to correction with the industry's ongoing build-out of infrastructure. Turning to capital for the quarter, with our disciplined plan, we kept reinvestment rates to just over 50% of cash flow. This resulted in our free cash flow more than doubling versus the second quarter, and we rewarded shareholders with a 57% increase to our dividend payout. In the fourth quarter, we expect Devon's production to be around 650,000 BOE per day, of which oil is expected to approximate 315,000 barrels per day. Now, as a reminder, we dropped our fourth frack crew in the Delaware mid-year to replenish our duck inventory, and the impact of this lower completion activity will lead to a minor decline in our production versus the third quarter. We've also modeled in the effects of project timing and weather impacts, some of which we've already experienced. However, we do expect our financial performance in the fourth quarter to be very strong, with operating margins set to expand and free cash flow to be quite robust. Overall, the fourth quarter is set up to round out another successful year financially for our company. While we have certainly faced some challenges this year, we're on track to deliver one of the best years in our 50-plus year history in terms of returns and free cash flow generation. Importantly, as we head into 2024, our focus remains the same. We intend to deliver growth on a per share basis and maximize free cash flow generation while balancing the need to appropriately reinvest in our business for the future. To achieve these objectives, we have incorporated our learnings over the past year, pushed service costs lower, and sharpened our capital allocation to deliver a step-change improvement in well productivity and efficiency. On slide 8, we outline the key attributes underpinning our improved outlook for 2024. First and foremost, with continued volatility in commodity pricing, we believe it is prudent to construct a capital plan with consistent activity levels to maintain production at a level around 650,000 BOE per day with oil at approximately 315,000 barrels per day. With ongoing macro uncertainty and with the ample spare capacity that OPEC Plus possesses, we have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the market at this point in time. This disciplined approach reflects our commitment to pursuing value over volume and shareholders will benefit from our high-graded slate of development projects designed to enhance capital efficiency and returns on capital employed. To deliver this production profile in 2024, we anticipate a capital investment of $3.3 to $3.6 billion. This level of spending represents an improvement of 10% compared to 2023, and we expect to fund this program at pricing levels below $40 per barrel. In summary, we see delivering flat production for 10% less capex. Now turning to slide nine, our improved capital efficiency in 2024 is driven by concentrating more than 60% of our spending in the Delaware Basin. Our plan will shift a higher mix of activity to multi-zone Wolf Camp developments in New Mexico, which is the core of the play as infrastructure constraints have eased over the past and will continue over the coming months. We also plan to high-grade capital activity across other key assets in our portfolio. This includes limiting Williston Basin activity to only our highest impact opportunities and decreasing appraisal activity in the Eagle Forge. With this refined capital allocation, we expect to improve well productivity by 5% to 10% in 2024, anchored by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin. And lastly, we expect our capital efficiency to also benefit from improved service costs as contracts refresh over the next few quarters. Now, with this operating plan in 2024, we are positioned to deliver free cash flow growth of around 20% in 2024 at $80 WTI pricing. As you can see on slide 11, with this strong outlook, that translates into uniquely attractive free cash flow yield of 11%, which is up to three times higher than what the broader equity markets can offer. Simply put, this is one of the most critical aspects of the Devon plan. On slide 12, with this stream of free cash flow, as we've done in the past, we plan to target a cash return payout of around 70%, which is in line with our average annual payout to shareholders since we unveiled this industry-first model in 2020. A key priority heading into next year is to continue to grow our fixed dividend. We believe the certainty that comes with a fixed dividend is valued by shareholders and is better capitalized within our equity price, especially if the yield is competitive with that of the broader markets. With the remainder of our free cash flow, we will stay flexible as we always have been by judiciously allocating toward the best opportunities, whether that be increased stock buybacks, variable dividends, or taking additional steps to improve our balance sheet. However, given our current stock price, we expect to pursue buybacks at a level that will most likely result in our variable payout being below the 50% threshold in the near term. to capture the incredible value our equity offers at these trading levels. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Clay for a rundown of our recent operational performance.
spk11: Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. For today, I plan to focus my comments on our Delaware Basin operations, as well as outlining the actions we plan to take to sharpen our capital allocation and drive efficiencies in our business over the next year. Let's begin on slide 15 with an overview of our Delaware Basin activity which accounts for roughly 60% of our capital spending for this year. With this level of investment during the quarter, we ran a consistent program of 16 rigs and brought on 59 new wells. Well productivity was very strong, with 30-day rates averaging 3,000 BOE per day, and improved average productivity combined with the benefits of elevated completion activity in the first half of the year drove another quarter of production growth from our franchise asset. That said, our growth rate in the quarter was held back by a few wind and lightning storms that impacted power for our facility as well as our third-party infrastructure. These storms stranded a few thousand barrels per day during the quarter. The infrastructure and the wells are back online, and we don't see any negative impacts on the ultimate recovery of these wells. On slide 16, you can see our impressive well productivity in the Delaware Basin during the quarter. It was highlighted by three important projects. On the far left of the slide, Devon's top result for the quarter was the Bora Bora project, developing the Upper Wolf Camp at our Todd area. With 30-day rates from Bora Bora averaging 4,600 BOEs per well, with the cost coming in under budget, these returns are expected to be well into the triple digits for this project. Another noteworthy project was our CBR17 development in Texas. where 30-day production rates average 4,100 BOE per day per well. The CBR17 results were enabled by a 3,000-acre trade completed about a year ago that I highlighted on a previous call. This key trade, which unlocked our ability to pursue extended reach laterals, by extending our laterals to two miles for this project, we added several million dollars of net present value in this project alone. On the right, another key result for us was the Haflinger project, where we co-developed multiple zones in the Wolf Camp A and B. While rates were restricted due to infrastructure, recoveries on this are on track to reach 1.5 million BOE per day per well, excuse me, per well. With solid returns from our Wolf Camp B appraisal to date, we now plan on bringing forward the value of this opportunity by co-developing the upper Wolf Camp where possible in the future activity. Looking forward to the project level details, slide 17 provides a nice visual of the well productivity we achieved in the Delaware Basin during the third quarter. On the left, as I touched on earlier, 30-day average rates for the Delaware wells we brought online reached 3,000 BOE per day. These high impact wells exhibited a 20% plus improvement from the first half of 2023. reaching the highest quarterly level in more than a year. This performance is great to see given our well productivity over the past year has been held back slightly by elevated appraisal requirements and infrastructure constraints. The 2023 infrastructure constraints result in a shifting of a portion of our capital to less prolific areas in the basin and at times, constrained peak rates across a subset of our new wells. As you can see on the right hand side of the slide, We also made progress improving our cycle times across our drilling and completions operations in the basin. Third quarter results were highlighted by our completion space exceeding 2,000 feet per day for the fifth consecutive quarter. And we drilled several pace setting wells that achieved spud rig release times of less than 15 days. With the momentum we've established, we believe we can build upon these results and capture further efficiencies as we head into 2024. Turning to slide 18, as Rick touched on earlier, we're excited about the plan we have in place to drive improved well productivity in the Delaware with our 2024 plan. With the ongoing industry build out of infrastructure in the form of electrification, compression, localized processing, and downstream takeaway, we plan to allocate approximately 70% of our capital to the Delaware Basin and specifically to the core of New Mexico, while we can optimize the remaining activity across our acreage in Texas. As you can see on the chart on the left, by refining our focus on high impact wolf camp zones in the core of the play with less appraisal requirements, we expect Delaware productivity to improve by 10% in 2024. Looking beyond 2024, we have a long runway of high value inventory in the Delaware that positions Devon to deliver highly competitive results for the foreseeable future. As we've discussed in the past, we've identified more than a decade of risk inventory across the Delaware, and we expect to steadily replenish this inventory over time as we successfully characterize the many upside opportunities across this SPAC play resource. In addition to our internal estimates, there are plenty third-party services that can provide an in-depth evaluation of our resource base. A great example of this on slide 19 that references the recent Inveris Permian inventory report. While I won't go through all of the details in the slide, there are three key takeaways you should have. First, we have one of the largest remaining inventories of any operator in the Delaware. Second, the quality of this inventory is excellent. with returns exceeding a PB10 breakeven at $40 WTI. And third, we possess significant upside to our risk resource for many known geological viable zones that have yet to be fully characterized. So in summary, with the Delaware accounting for roughly 60% of Devon's total risk resource, we're going to be delivering some excellent results for quite some time. And with that, I'll turn the call to Jeff for a financial review. Jeff?
spk12: Thanks, Clay. I'll spend my time today reviewing our financial performance in the third quarter and discussing our cash return approach for the future. In general, revenues and expenses came in line with expectations for most categories in the third quarter. However, high natural gas price realizations and lower tax rate due to R&D tax credits taken in the quarter drove our earnings beat versus the Wall Street consensus. Putting it all together, operating cash flow totaled $1.7 billion in the third quarter, with capital reinvestment rates at 52% of cash flow, generating $843 million of free cash flow, a more than twofold increase versus the prior period. With this free cash flow, a key priority for us was to strengthen our financial position. In August, we paid off $242 million of maturing debt, and we bolstered liquidity with cash balances increasing by 56% to $761 million at quarter end. With these actions, Devin exited the quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of just over half a turn. Moving forward, we plan to add to our financial strength in each quarter by committing around 30% of our free cash flow back to the balance sheet. This will allow us to further pare down our absolute debt balance with repayment of roughly $1 billion of maturities coming due in 2024 and 2025 and maintain a minimum cash balance in excess of $500 million. Cash returns to shareholders increased materially in the third quarter. Based on third quarter results, we declared a fixed plus variable dividend of 77 cents per share, an increase of 57% from the prior quarter. This dividend payout represents an attractive annualized yield of over 6% at today's share price. In addition to the dividend, we have a $3 billion share repurchase authorization in place. To date, we've repurchased 400 million shares at a total cost of $2.1 billion. With this program, we're on pace to decrease Devin's outstanding share count by up to 9%. Although we temporarily paused our repurchase activity in the third quarter, retired debt, and to build cash, we continue to view buybacks as a critically important tool for us to compound per share growth for investors over time. As Rick stated earlier, we'll target 70% of free cash flow for cash returns to shareholders moving forward. With the recent weakness in our share price, investors should expect us to be an aggressive buyer of our equity once we come out of the earnings blackout and the general weighting of cash returns to be balanced towards share repurchases and our growing fixed dividend over the near term. With that, I'll turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
spk08: Thank you, Jeff. I would like to close today by reiterating a few key messages from our prepared remarks. Number one, We plan to incorporate our learnings from the past year, tighten a few things up, and refine our capital allocation in 2024 to deliver a step change improvement in capital efficiency. Number two, this improved capital efficiency is anchored by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin, where we expect well productivity to improve by up to 10% year over year. Number three, with our long duration resource base, We have the depth of inventory to deliver sustainable results through the cycle. And number four, we are deeply committed to a disciplined pursuit of per share value creation and our carefully designed cash return framework that has the flexibility to allocate free cash flow across multiple avenues to optimize shareholder value. We've demonstrated that and will continue to do so in the future. And now with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
spk00: Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This will allow us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
spk03: Perfect. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. That's star 1 on your telephone keypad. First question comes from Doug Legate from Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. Doug, your line is now open.
spk10: Please proceed. Thank you. Good morning everyone and thanks for having me on. Rick, obviously the issues in the back end in North Dakota are obviously well telegraphed at this point. Your commentary in the slide deck suggests that you're taking steps to improve productivity. I wonder if you'd just walk us through what some of those steps are in terms of how the market can get confidence in the results and at the same time perhaps you could address your latest thoughts on inventory depth in that asset?
spk08: You've had a good question. You know, one of the things that we've talked about in improving productivity really across the company is focusing on the capital program as we go into 2024. Obviously, throughout this past year, you know, we've done a fair amount of assessment, you know, across our resource base and virtually all of our basins. And so I think that what we have learned, we're going to watch the performance from those wells that we did the assessment on. And then furthermore, as we've talked about, really zone in on some of our most productive areas. And so I think while the market may not have fully appreciated the value of assessment work, we know over the long haul that's how you truly build inventory organically, and it's very, very helpful for us. So I think that's the thing that investors need to watch for. We're going to stay very focused there. And can you repeat the second part of your question?
spk10: Yeah, and just for Mr. Cootie, this is not a second question. All right, okay. Well, I was expecting it then. Yeah, inventory in North Dakota.
spk08: Right. Well, I mentioned that's how you can build inventory organically, and I think that that's a thing I really value about the staff that we have here. We've got the depth and the breadth, and we talk about the resource that we have here in-house. And so at times you need to spend a little money assessing some of those resources. That's what we've done in 2023. And so what you're hearing us say today, we've learned some things. We're tightening some things up. And we're going to watch some performance, and we're going to be very, very focused going into 24. Clay, you have anything you want to add to that?
spk11: Yeah, Doug, I'll just add to that. I appreciate Rick's comments. And one thing we've learned, you know, we've been very open on the amount of surprise we've had, specifically around some of the partially depleted wells that we've drilled. We've gotten operationally better. We've made three or four very specific changes that have improved how we develop those wells, how we bring them online, how we keep them online. small things like artificial lift and even the design of the completion itself. And so as we get better, that improves the productivity, ultimately the economics of those wells in the later life. And so those are learnings that eventually will apply to lots of other basins and feel real confident that given that same circumstance, we now have a better arsenal of tools to approach those wells.
spk10: Okay, we will watch with interest. Thanks for that, Clayton. Gosh, I'm torn on what to ask next, but I'm going to go with the variable dividend question. M&A was the other one, Rick, but I'm guessing you wouldn't answer that. I guess, Jeff, it sounds like you're starting to recognize the opportunity to transfer value from debt to equity with your balance sheet comment, but you haven't ruled out the variable dividend despite the comments around buybacks. Why not just take the variable off the table? Because if I may say so, it seems to me your share price hasn't had any value recognition for that whatsoever.
spk12: Yeah, I appreciate it, Doug. And, yeah, no, we understand, you know, the bias that the market's had for share repurchases, and that's certainly going to be our bias going forward. But, frankly, we always think the variable dividend can be a component of our framework and expect it to be as we move forward. I appreciate your comments on the balance sheet because, again, I'll just remind folks as always that that's our primary priority here. As we work our way into any year and any budget, we want to make sure we maintain the financial strength. And as you heard in my opening comments, we're committed to continuing to reduce our absolute debt level. Beyond that, we're going to grow the fixed dividend, as we've talked about as well. We always take that up with our board in the first quarter of the upcoming year. And as we highlighted it in our materials, we expect to grow the fixed dividend again next year. Beyond that, I think it's, at least in our view, it's pretty clear that the equity price is disconnected from the fundamentals of our business. And moving forward here in the near term, we're going to lean in on the share repurchases. And as Rick said in his comments, that could have an impact on the variable dividend going forward. But I don't want to exclude it as an option for us because, frankly, we think it's a key component of continuing to deliver cash returns to shareholders. But without doubt, our bias is going to be towards the share repo here in the near term.
spk10: That's very clear. Thanks very much, guys.
spk08: Thank you, Doug.
spk03: Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Nitin, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hey, good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my question. You know, Rick, it's good to see the refocused – energy around the Permian, I want to touch a little bit. You know, you show about 3,000 potential locations in the Delaware in your deck. As you go back to the New Mexico Wolfgang, the specific area that you're targeting, can you talk a little bit about how much of that inventory is focused on that area alone?
spk08: Yeah, you know, a lot of it, to be honest with you, Nitin. And I think that we've actually talked here internally. If you think about our rig count, about two-thirds of our rigs that we have run are in that area. So that's a good way to look at it. So two-thirds of that number that you see is pretty accurate, we think. Clay, you think you want to add to that?
spk11: Well, you know, as we think about kind of this 70-30 split, it does parallel our inventory. And so we think about Most of our inventory being on that north side, you know, clearly in 23, we were very clear we want to do a little bit more assessment work, spread some of that out. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had to reach in a little bit deeper in some of the areas that we wouldn't normally have, kind of reach into that bullpen. That kind of diluted a little bit the average productivity that we delivered. I think working through that inventory, or excuse me, working through that assessment work and really having a better understanding of where that sits, we're now leveraging those learnings into the activity in 24, and then also allowing that infrastructure to mature a little bit also allows us to leverage back the benefits of the work we did in 23 for the benefiting 24. So there's a good parallel there, and I don't see us falling too much out of sync with that inventory run.
spk05: Great. Thanks. As I follow up, Rick, I'm going to not assume that you won't answer the M&A question. So look, industry consolidation is certainly front and center. You have been part of that consolidation in the past. Can we maybe get some thoughts, updated thoughts, on how you're viewing the go-forward path for Devon, either as an independent company or as a consolidator?
spk08: Yeah, and I think it's something that's obviously very topical in light of some of the recent transactions out there. Really, as you know, you've been covering this sector a long time. Many people on the call are, but really it's part of the fabric of this industry, this sector. The one thing that won't change is our approach. We've always been very compelled to just have a high bar, be very disciplined, and make sure that it fits within the framework that we have. As you've heard Jeff talk about and in my prepared remarks, right now we see one of the greatest, most clear-cut opportunities is just ourselves with our share repurchases. That's how we're looking at it. I do think that... that you'll continue to see consolidation. We've been on record as saying we support continued consolidation in the sector. We think it's the right thing to do for investors. But, you know, as far as Devin's participation, I'm going to go back to those key elements, and we're going to have a high bar, be very disciplined, be very thoughtful, and make sure we can sell that to shareholders that it's the right thing to do.
spk05: Thanks, Rick. Thanks for the answers.
spk08: You bet, man.
spk03: Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Neil, your line's now open. Please go ahead.
spk02: Yeah, good morning, team. The question I had was, the first question was just around the cadence of production. Obviously, Q4 and Q1, a little softer, and then a nice ramp over the course of the year. Can you talk about the confidence interval you have around
spk11: that ramp as you get into through 2024 and help the market again comfortable on the oil side in particular as that's been a little bit shakier this year yeah thanks Neil appreciate the question you know we've been staring at this kind of saddle in fourth quarter first quarter for quite a while we don't provide detailed guidance typically ahead of the coming quarter and so you know having the activity really that fourth frack crew in the front half of 23 is We've benefited certainly in this quarter, and we'll see a rollover in the fourth and first before we build that duck cadence back up again and we're able to bring that fourth frack crew up. That provides some lumpiness. We realize that that's not ideal. We're trying to make sure that we telegraph not just this fourth quarter, but the first quarter has a little bit of a saddle as well. I think once we get that frack crew back, we reestablish the higher rate. It's steadier throughout the year, so think of
spk02: two three four being a little bit flatter the fourth could come down just a little bit but probably not quite as much as a saddle as we saw in this fourth and first um coming quarters okay thank you and then uh talk about the capex guide for 2024 uh it's a little bit lower than consensus which is good uh although uh partially offset by lower activity or lower production so maybe just talk about what could see the top end what could see the bottom end of the range and uh the modeling that went into building that 24-hour forecast.
spk11: Neil, so we do a lot of work, as you can imagine. We talked last quarter about some of the work we do with the board back in September, really looking out five and ten years, and that leads to kind of a more focused look. This time of year, November, we have a call with the board. We're really starting to kind of firm things up. During that process, we run lots of sensitivities, the what-ifs, We think about different deflation cadences, how that impacts us, different capital allocation. And what we've gotten to is we feel really good about this plan, refocusing as we've talked about on the Delaware Basin, benefiting from the work that we've done in 23 around some of the assessment work. And so leveraging into that, we feel really good about the continued focus of the activity that we have. and paring back on some of the other basins that probably could use a little bit more breathing room, and then feel really good about the deflation that we've baked in, call it roughly 5% or so, that we have in hand today. We feel really good about those numbers. The balance, the remaining 5%, is a little bit pareback in activity, and then, of course, we're striving to exceed those expectations every day inside our shop.
spk02: Thanks, Tim.
spk03: Thanks, Bill. Our next question comes from Scott Grubber from Citigroup. Scott, your line's now open. Please go ahead.
spk06: Yes, good morning. I wanted to get just a bit more detail on the infrastructure constraints in the Delaware. It sounds like it's starting to improve, but are you still seeing some peak rates constrained? Is it still impacting you know, where your rigs are running today? And if the answer is yes, you know, when do you think these constraints can be fully alleviated?
spk11: Scott, the good news is we're in the hottest basin in the world. The bad news is when you're in the hottest basin in the world, you're always going to have some kind of restraint constraint. And so we work really closely with our third parties on trying to stay ahead of that. In fact, we do proactive work on even modeling their own infrastructure. We've done some big projects this year. The state line processing facility that we are part of, we added $200 million a day to that processing. That not only benefits state line, but certainly some of the gas that we have in New Mexico as well. We worked very hard on some of the water infrastructure, made some great improvements on that, some redundancy there. So we feel really good about that, really good work. Now we're really focused on some of the electrification. While we've made good progress, I can tell you that's going to be a continued focus for us and for industry. The weather, specifically around July, we had some serious windstorms, blew over a lot of power lines. And as you can imagine, it's not just getting those power lines back up. It's not just getting our wells back up, but it's all of the third-party infrastructure that's daisy-chained together. And so that's where we saw some of the real tightness of that infrastructure not having alternative outlets that you typically would in a looser environment. So that continues to build out. There's been some really material improvement, but just know that this is a very active basin. Certainly Devon's not the only company very active in the basin, and so we'll continue to try our best to stay ahead, not just in our own controllable activity, but working with our third parties so that they can stay ahead with us.
spk06: Got it. And just a quick one following up on the budget. Do you have a a rough sense for the well count that's incorporated in the budget for next year?
spk11: Yeah, I'm pulling the number now. Yeah, about 400. Yeah, it's about 400 wells. Relatively flat. It looks like we kind of peak a little bit more towards the middle two quarters, but relatively flat during the year.
spk06: Okay. Well, I appreciate it. Thank you.
spk11: Thank you, sir.
spk03: Our next question comes from Neil Dingman from Thruist. Neil, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
spk13: Morning, guys. My first question is just on the permanent infrastructure. I'm just wondering, you know, Rick, you and Clay have highlighted and I think have been out there about the lack of infrastructure, you know, in recent quarters. I'm just wondering, was some of that, did that come as a surprise or, you know, was it you were thinking that some was going to be built out? I'm just wondering if you could speak to
spk11: know maybe what had changed and then maybe speak to the build out you're seeing now and then what you anticipate next year yeah i think you know you try and plan this stuff years in advance because many of these big projects are multi-year projects and sometimes that those projects slip that you know ultimately funding decisions are outside of your control so some of those things can be typically um accounted for and baked in what we're really you know focused on in 23 is making sure that we're honoring our flaring percentages. We've done an amazing job of driving that down. We're really thoughtful about these outlets and making sure that we have the ability to flow these wells back. And so we want to make sure that we're staying ahead of any bumps and disruptions. As you know, in the New Mexico side, it's a lot more federal land. You're relying a lot more on the BLM. Even small things like right-of-way, which are pretty standard course, take a little bit longer these days And so, during that transition when we're accounting for that and our third party partners are accounting for that there can be a little bit of an extended drag I think we've gotten you know a lot of really good important progress during the course of 23 that we will benefit from. But you know, we will continue to see constraints, all the way around the Permian basin, as this is a materially growing basin that's so incredibly prolific.
spk13: Yeah, well said. And then my second question is just on your comment over high grading the upcoming multi-zone Wolf Camp wells in New Mexico. I'm just wondering, was it infrastructure? What was the limitations to not high grade this Delaware sooner? And I'm just wondering what kind of runway you all anticipate you'll have in this core area?
spk11: Yeah, Neil, I would say it was a combination of, you know, we did some assessment work. I highlighted on the last call specifically the B zone, really understanding how does this work as we co-develop? How does this work independently? What's the right business decision? And that takes time to evaluate. So that's some of the things that we did, you know, dozens of other tests as well. But some of the work that we invested in during the course of 23 some of the things that we're learning obviously we're applying to 24 and then parallel to that was the infrastructure comments that that I just went through, so I think there's a parallel is we think about what this. concentration of activity means. Again, I'll go back to the kind of two-thirds, one-third of our inventory is in the New Mexico side, so we're not overly leveraging New Mexico versus Texas. Now, we're certainly high-grading. We're always trying to drill our best stuff first, but that's no different than what we're doing in other basins, and obviously other operators are doing as well.
spk13: Thanks, Clay. Look forward to the results.
spk11: Me too, Neal.
spk03: Our next question comes from Charles Mead from Johnson Rice. Charles, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
spk07: Good morning, Rick, Clay, and Jeff. Clay, I want to take one more run at the Delaware Basin infrastructure question. As you were making your prepared remarks or an earlier Q&A, I wrote down there's electricity build-out, compression, processing, takeaway, and then also you added water. If those are the right categories, as you look at those, could you tell us what your best guess for 2024 is going to be your top one or top two concerns? I'm less thinking about where you have work to do, but more in the framing of which of those is most likely to emerge as a bottleneck in 2024.
spk11: yeah Charles it's a it's a bit of a whack-a-mole kind of opportunity, you know you bring on these big pads and you're really focused on gas takeaway or gas compression or processing. But as you bring these wells on you're also testing water, you know what we're seeing is with everyone really the incredible electrical demand. some of the electricity providers are struggling to keep up with that growth. So we're moving forward with some things to take a little bit more self-control on some of those projects and behind the meter opportunities to control our own destiny even a little bit more. But I can tell you as soon as we get one issue resolved, there's other issues that pop up and that's just part of working in a very hot dynamic play. Now what I will... I will add to that, and I think is very important. We also see these as not just constraints, but opportunities. And we truly believe if we can identify them early, then we have options. We can wire around the issue. We can figure out how to work with third parties and develop and make sure that that is built in time for our needs. We can certainly, you know, choose to drill alternate wells, reshuffle the portfolio. Or number four, we can lean in and be aggressive about capturing that value and leveraging that. And you've seen us do that a number of times. So I think the most important thing is being opportunistic, make sure we're really thinking far out ahead and making sure we're acting on that.
spk08: Yeah, Charles, I'd like to go ahead. I'd like to add, yeah, sorry. One thing I'd like to add is we are really pleased with how the midstream providers are building out their capacity. So we think that somewhere in the next six to eight quarters, you're going to see another two BCF a day, plus or minus, in the Permian Basin of processing. So when you step back and you look at the capital investment on the midstream, you look at the long haul, getting pipe built in the ground, getting those getting out of the gas to the Gulf Coast area and then on over into, you know, Louisiana and areas like that for the LNG facilities. We just think the right amount of focus is being placed on it and I feel very confident in the future. You know, the other thing I'd say, I've got a pretty good time to interject this, but we continue to see growth into Mexico. That is a market that has grown from 2 BCF a day up, you know, 6, 7 BCF a day and there's no There's no basin more well-suited for that, I think, than the Permian when you start looking at the western margins of the Permian Basin. So whether you're on the Delaware side, the Midland side, you're going to benefit, I think, from that Mexican growth over the next decade or two.
spk07: Thank you for that elaboration, Rick. Clay, I was going to say, I came up, I consider using that term whack-a-mole, but I came up with the term cycling bottlenecks instead. You're more eloquent than I am. A follow-up question. Well, you feel free to use that one. A follow-up question perhaps for Jeff. Jeff, I think you clearly sent the message that you guys are tilting towards buybacks in the current circumstances that you see. But I wonder if you could elaborate a bit more on the framework that you guys have used to come to that conclusion. And with an eye – with an eye towards if we do have the happy evolution where your stock price does go up, at what point does it flip back more towards a variable dividend?
spk12: Yeah, I appreciate that, Charles, and I think your last comment is important because that's why we want to maintain flexibility and we believe the framework that we have today allows for that as we kind of navigate the different market conditions and whether that's specific to Devon or on a more macro basis. As it relates to how we evaluate the share repurchase, I think I've talked about this in the past, but just like you all, we have our own internal models, obviously, around intrinsic value, but we also watch closely, you know, how our peers are trading, how we're trading relative to them, and I think without question, you've seen, you know, compression of our multiple, you know, over the last 12 months, and so where we sit today, it feels pretty clear to us, you know, given what we know and how we feel about the go-forward business, which I thought Clay did a great job of, you know, articulating our game plan here over the next 12 months. We feel like it's the right time to jump in and be more aggressive on the share repo than we've been in the past. And so you'll see us execute that over the coming quarters. And it's always a little bit challenging with the earnings blackouts that we have as it relates to the timing of how that plays out. But we've got a game plan to go execute on that and be pretty consistent as we move forward over the next several quarters.
spk07: Thanks for the detail.
spk03: Our next question comes from Matthew Portillo from TPH. Matthew, your line's now open. Please go ahead.
spk14: Good morning, all. Maybe starting out a question for Clay. I was just curious if you could speak to some of the learnings from the downspacing test in the Eagle Ferb. Maybe as it relates to the type curve performance on those tighter space wells and how many of your tills in 2023 were impacted by these tests versus kind of the high grading plan heading into 2024 that might improve that capital efficiency?
spk11: Yeah, thanks for the question, Matt. You know, I'd say it's all very much a work in progress. Definitely the South Texas Eagleford area is a maturing basin, similar to Williston, but very different in many ways. The ROC is incredibly forgiving in the sense of downspacing, refracts. We continue to find and uncover new ways to extract more and more of that oil in place. So we're very encouraged with that. Now, that said, it doesn't always come out exactly as planned. I would say it was less about the learnings around downspacing more a little bit about regional. And so as we moved into specific areas, we found that the recipe from what we call the Blackhawk area, kind of our legacy business, isn't exactly the same recipe as we should apply to our Falcon, the new assets. And so some of those learnings certainly have accounted for the results in 23. We have a little bit less activity during this quarter, so you saw the oil production rollover. Second quarter, third, I'll caution you to look back. Make sure you look back at the first quarter because we had about a 10% improvement or increase in production quarter over quarter from one to two and then down from two to three. So that's more related activity, less about individual well results. But as we continue to explore refracts, downspacing, combinations of how we do this co-development, I would say we're very encouraged about what we're seeing there, and this rock continues to be the rock that keeps on giving.
spk14: Perfect. And then as a follow-up question, maybe for Rick or for Clay, like the shift here and further improvement on the capital efficiency into 2024, I guess one of the questions that continues to come up, and Rick, you highlighted in your prepared remarks that we're kind of in an uncertain time. with spare capacity within OPEC and kind of the volatility in the crude markets as well as what might be a challenged 2024 gas market. Just curious, as you guys think through your capital allocation plans for 24, where do things stand at the moment in the Powder River Basin and the Anadarko, just thinking through the return profile there versus areas like the Delaware and is there further optimization that could occur if we end up in a bit of a lower commodity price environment?
spk08: Yeah, that's a really good question, Matt. You know, I think I'm going to start at the Anadarko there. So we actually were running four rigs. We dropped a rig, as you probably recall, mid-year. The Dow partnership we have is going really well. You know, even though the strip is supportive for uh for gas the outlook we think is really uh really good one of the things that we were faced with or we we made a decision to do is is just scale back that capital just just a little bit and going from four to three rigs we think that's the right thing to do um obviously the promote keeps those returns in a pretty good spot so that's how we're looking at that i think as we go into Going to 24, we plan to keep a three-rig program is our plan. Now, up in the powder, our original plan contemplated running two rigs, possibly even considering a third rig up there just because of some of the encouraging results. But the fact of the matter is that we are still challenged somewhat on the well cost. And some of that's just a function of your activity level being somewhat depressed, quite honestly, or slower than you need to drive those costs down. We've made a decision to be just returns focused and make sure that we get that capital efficiency increase that we referred to. And the best way for us to do that is drop that back to one rig versus a plan two or three. I think it's the right thing to do short term. Now, longer term, we know that you need to put additional capital in there. So we're working with service providers to see if we can see some creative ways to do that. But that's probably something we'd need to contemplate more into 2025. But we are seeing some really encouraging results. So real pleased with that asset at that point in time.
spk02: Thank you.
spk03: Our next question comes from Kevin McCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners. Kevin, your line is now open.
spk01: Hey, good morning, guys. And we appreciate all the details on 2024. You've talked about oil production taking a little dip before bouncing back up to what looks like maybe close to current levels at year-end 24. And my question is, given that lumpiness, do you see the 2024 capex range as a good proxy for maintenance capex? And would that production level and the maintenance scenario be kind of at the current production levels?
spk11: Yeah, I've always struggled with the maintenance capital question because there's always a way to kind of game the system if you just want to focus on oil or gas or whatever. I would say this is a maintenance capital with a longer-term mindset in mind because We are still doing work to really prove up future value. We're doing things to always kind of enhance our portfolio. At the same time, maintenance capital of essentially roughly the same production, 23 to 24, and then as we look out to 25, we're at least that level, maybe a little bit of growth in 25 based on this investment. So, yeah, rough numbers, I would call that a maintenance capital, but a healthy maintenance capital.
spk01: Justin Cappos- Thanks, I think that clarity is is helpful and as a follow up on the Eagle Ford. Justin Cappos- Spending there has been a bit high this year, but my takeaway from your capex budget is that it'll be a little bit more efficient in 2024. Justin Cappos- Is that the right takeaway and I respect you guys that you guys are still nailing down the details, but anything you can share high level on what's driving maybe better efficiency in the Eagle Ford.
spk11: Yeah, we are certainly still nailing things down. This is all preliminary based on the board's approval. But I think directionally, you're right. You know, we had looked at what is a constant two rigs for us to operate scenario look like? What does a one rig for us to operate scenario look like? And then, of course, we're working with our JP partners, BPX, on activity level for that side of the basin, the Blackhawk side. And so I think what we're working towards and we're finalizing looks like a high graded activity consistent with what we've talked about in the other basins, and you'll see a really nice uptick in efficiency, capital efficiency from that. Now, still bear in mind, I mean, we're doing some really inventive things there. We're looking forward on a lot of projects. We're not starving the asset of, you know, how do we create more value moving forward. That's very important to us that we're balancing these short-term wins with also longer-term value creation.
spk01: Thanks, Clay.
spk11: Thank you, sir.
spk03: Our next question comes from Paul Chang from Scotiabank. Paul, your line is now open.
spk04: Thank you.
spk03: Good morning, guys.
spk04: Two questions, please. Clay, for Delver, you guys have been a leader over there and that you have seen a lot of improvement. So if I'm looking out for the next one or two years, Where is the area that you see the most opportunity for you to further improve? The same question is on the Bakken. You've been struck over there. I think from that standpoint, what have we learned from the RIMROC acquisition in terms of future AMD due diligence process and all that? Barton, given your substantially reducing activity, what's the role for your longer-term portfolio? Do they have a role there? Thank you.
spk08: Hey, Paul, it's Rick. I'm going to start and then I'll... put it over to Clay and Jeff, but I'm going to start with that second part. I think one of the most interesting things we've learned with the Rimrock acquisition, some of which was a little bit of a surprise, some was not, and that was our spacing. Rimrock and Devon had had historically somewhat slightly different development schemes, if you will, and I think what we have learned is it really drove home the point that Devon's approach was was probably the right approach as far as density per spacing unit. We were a little more relaxed. In other words, we had wider spacing, and I think that's why we had better recoveries. But sometimes those points aren't really made until you have several years of production history, and I think that's what we have learned with this. The other thing I'd say is that... We also have seen the impacts of something that's not controllable, like weather. And last year, not to rehash too much or make excuses, but the fact of the matter is we had one of the worst weather events in that area in the last century. And so timing was not our friend that time. But you just have to think through that as you execute, implement your capital program. So I think those are the things we've learned. As far as I can assure you, the Wilson has an absolute place in our portfolio going forward. It's an area we've worked in a long time. We've had a great track record up there over the last decade, going back to the WPX days and We see that continuing. We still see opportunities to even be better yet in the future. We've learned quite a bit from this, and we've applied that. I can tell you I personally challenge the team to step up. during that period. Sometimes that happens when you're a leader. Sometimes you push a little too hard, and I think that's a learning for us as well. So, Clay, what else do you want to add to those questions?
spk11: Yeah, I'll go back to kind of what are we excited about when we look at the footprint that we have today as we think about innovation in that space. You know, Paul, last week I did a couple of days of intensive training conversation, did an off-site with my team, and we really focused on what distinguishes us two years from now, five years from now, and most importantly, what are the actions that we can take to ensure that exceptional performance. I think that the two-year conversations, there was a lot about recovery factor. How do we intentionally go after more of that oil that we already know is there? We sit in five amazing basins, have incredible land footprints already under our feet, and how do we think about extracting just a little bit more from the resources that we have? So a lot about stimulation design, a lot about integrated approach, thinking like geologists and reservoir engineers and completion engineers, all at the same time in extracting that value, really leaning in some of the great work that we found around refracts, some of the other things that we have, And as we move towards five-year, really things start coming in more focus around things like enhanced oil recovery. How are we progressing those learnings? And, again, leveraging the amazing footprint that we already have today, how do we enhance that ballpark 10% recovery to 12%, 15%, 20%, essentially doubling the resource that we have? You know, specifically the learnings around the acquisitions, you know, that was a little bit more than a year ago. We're still a pretty fresh team. I can tell you the acquisitions were fantastic. fantastic value creating opportunities for us. They fit the portfolio. And what we really learned is that we need to do a better job in the process of the handoff. And how do we pick those opportunities up? You know, when these companies, the prior owners may have a little different mindset on how far ahead they are on infrastructure, on permitting, on how they manage the day-to-day operations. You know, things like ESG are a very high important factor does. So moving through that kind of that transition period, I think we have gotten materially better from the first to the second. And when the third one comes, we'll make another material improvement. So real pleased with the team, the work that David's team, the greater team does in that evaluation. We're in every data room. We'll look hard at everything. We keep an exceptionally high bar and we'll continue to get very much better on that handoff and really improving the ultimate value from these opportunities.
spk04: Thank you.
spk03: Our next question comes from Scott Handelt from RBC. Scott, your line's not open. Please go ahead.
spk09: Yeah, thanks. You know, I think this one's for Jeff. And just to be a little bit more pointed on the kind of the buyback kind of theme, you know, your stock is down, you know, circa 30% year-to-date, you know, certainly underperforming. the peer group by quite a bit, like why not do buybacks in the third quarter? I know you're, you know, obviously the stock is, you know, a bit down here in the last say week or so, but it, you know, had points during third quarter too, where it was, you know, at similar levels, just kind of curious, you know, why not 3Q and more so going forward?
spk12: Yeah, Scott, you bet. The answer for the third quarter is real simple. As you'll recall, at the end of the second quarter, we disclosed our cash balance a dip below $500 million. As you might recall, when we rolled out our framework three years ago, one of the key criteria was that we maintain a cash balance in excess of that $500 million level. So our first priority was to take care of the maturity that we had in the third quarter. Second priority was to build back our cash balance above that $500 million level. which, as you saw in our reported results here in the third quarter, we've done that. So that, married with our commitment to deliver on the variable dividend that we talked about in the previous quarter, we weren't in a position to buy any incremental shares in the quarter. But going forward, I think we've coped hopefully, clearly telegraphed today, you know, our intention on the share repo, as well as the potential impact to the variable dividend going forward. And so, we look forward to getting to our next call in February and kind of talking about the results.
spk09: Okay, got it. And my follow-up is, you know, when you look at oil production, you know, next year around, you know, $315,000, do you see that as your new baseline? I know, you know, I think a prior kind of, I guess, market expectation would be closer to $320,000. And so, You know, is 315 the new baseline and is that driven more about like where you think it's best sustainable at or is it more reflecting of your view of the uncertainty in the macro and just wanting to kind of taper it a little bit?
spk08: Yeah, we think it's a new baseline. The fact is we're not too dissimilar from what the consensus was, is that 320 was probably certainly doable. We have done it two or three quarters in a row. But the reality is we continue to see some constraints, some weather issues, some real-world impacts. We think that 315 is absolutely the right baseline for us.
spk09: Appreciate it. Thank you.
spk00: Well, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. I see that we're at the top of our time slot. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the investor relations team at any time. Once again, thank you for your interest and have a good day. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call.
spk03: Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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