9/30/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Hello and welcome to the OET's second quarter 2021 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. Araceli Zalafuso, COO, and John Babayuanu, CFO of Okeanos EcoTinkers, will take you through the presentation. They will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call. I will advise you that this session is being recorded. John will now begin the presentation.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Welcome to the presentation of OET's results for the second quarter of 2021. We will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations about future events, including OET's commercial performance, dividend policy, projected dry dock schedules, and anticipated debt capital commitments. Actual results may differ materially from the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements. Starting on slide three, we review the highlights of the quarter. We generated net revenue of $35 million, adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, and adjusted profit of $4 million, or 11 cents per share, currently the only tanker company to post a profit in Q2. We distributed $24 million to our shareholders during the quarter. Since its inception, OET has generated a 35% total return for its shareholders. We took steps to optimize our VLCC fleet and charter portfolio. Specifically, we sold two 2019-built VLCCs, the Nisus Hadiparos and Nisus Andorini, for $90 million each, and acquired two 2022-built VLCCs for $97 million each. The three-year age-adjusted spread of $7 million per VLCC compares very favorably to a three-year straight-line depreciation-based spread of approximately $12 million per VLCC. thus making the transaction immediately accretive to NAV upon delivery of the ships in first half 2022. Furthermore, we replaced time charters on the VLCC's Nisos Seriña and Nisos de Spoticó with those on existing VLCCs, creating additional spot exposure for the company. Lastly, our Board of Directors has decided to postpone any further capital distributions until the aforementioned sale of the two VLCCs is completed. OET will distribute any excess cash buildup through the sale back to shareholders as it has done previously. I'll now hand it over to Taddy Steezy for an overview of our continued industry-leading commercial performance.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you, John. Once again, OET is trending as the top performer in the spot market for VLCCs and Suez Maxes in Q2 and Q3. During Q2, we achieved a fleet-wide TCE rate of $27,200 per operating day, net of 5% technical off-hire days. Our VLCCs generated $14,300 per day in the spot market, a 22% outperformance relative to our tanker peers that have reported Q2 earnings. During the quarter, we took advantage of the weak market to make some light repairs on our VLCC fleet to prepare for uninterrupted winter trading. Our Suez Maxes generated $18,800 per spot day, 32% higher than the tanker peer group average. We benefited from several front haul voyages to the east as well as a positive IFRS impact. Lastly, generated $16,000 per spot day, 57% higher than the tanker peer group average. We delivered the to their new owners and benefited from long haul on the vessel's last voyages. we were also able to capture some of the upside from a spike in the MED early in the quarter on two voyages. Overall, the market was characterized by weak sentiment and low volatility, with an oversupply of ships prevailing in almost every trading basin. In this context, there were very few opportunities available to make money trading our fleet. On slide five, we provide an overview of our guidance for Q3. So far in Q3, We have fixed 43% of our VLCC spot days at $15,600 per day, with VLCC spot rates currently around $11,000 per day. 57% of our Suezmax spot days at $18,600 per day, with Suezmax spot rates currently around $9,000 per day. And all of our AfriMax spot days at $12,900 per day, with the IKEA to be delivered to our new owners next week. Faced with the guidance and current spot conditions, we expect our Q3TC revenue to be in the mid-low $20 million. The bad news is as bad as we've ever seen the market. The good news is the reason why it's bad. Inventory drawdowns. Refiners are choosing not to import expensive spot-owned cargoes, but instead are drawing down on cheap crude they bought last year and held in storage. The next round of refiner buying will have to be from the seaborne market, which will be very positive for tankers. On slide six, we provide an overview of our fleet and charter portfolio. For full year 2022, we will operate 14 vessels, six Suez Maxis and eight VLCCs. Two of the six Suez Maxis and one of the eight VLCCs will be on time charges. leaving 79% of available days on the spot market to capitalize on what we believe will be a very strong recovering rate. And now back to John to walk you through the financials.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thanks, Adithivi. Starting with our income statement on slide seven. In Q2, daily OPEX excluding management fees averaged $6,700 per day, while daily G&A came in at an industry low $400 per day. So far, OET has been the only tanker company to remain profitable in Q2. Moving to slide 8, we report book value of 98 kroner per share following a write-down of paid-in capital and distribution to our shareholders. Moving to slide 9, we summarize our cash flows and capex commitments. Of the $194 million capex related to the acquisition of the two VLCCs, $17.4 million is payable to our chairman by year end. $141.5 million is due to the yard on delivery. And $35.1 million is payable to our chairman and may be deferred at OET sole discretion to any date before the end of June 2024 at a cost of 3.5% fixed interest per year on the outstanding amount commencing from the date of the new VLCC's delivery. Against this CAPEX, We have received firm indications for low-cost, high-LTV delivery financing for multiple large and reputable financial institutions and calculate that the anticipated capital structure of the new VLCCs will reduce cash break-evens by $3,100 per shift day and accelerate equity build-up by $1 million per year per shift relative to the current lease financing of the second-hand VLCCs, despite carrying roughly the same leverage. The sale and acquisition will also reduce the already industry-low average age of the company's fleet and improve its emissions performance. Shifting to slide 10, we provide a comprehensive overview of our debt stack. Our all-in cost of debt is roughly 3.5%. Our debt stood at $758 million at quarter end and is set to decline further to $560 million by year end following the retirement of debt of one Afromax and two VLCCs . Following the sale of the Afromax fleet, we now have no debt maturities until 2025. Back to Aristides to walk you through our market outlook.

speaker
Aristides
Head of Market Research, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you again, John.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Analysts estimate that the crude production will need to increase by 4 million barrels per day in the second half of 21 in order to not deplete inventories to critically low levels. Despite uncertainty due to the Delta variant, oil demand is holding up well and is forecast to increase to over 100 million barrels per day by December. On slide 12, we see that the crude production increase between now and the end of 2022 will be the biggest and longest increase in recent history. Increases in crude oil production and seaborne trade is a driver of tanker market strength. This was proven in the period 2013 to 2015 and again in 2017 to 2018. when consistent growth in crude oil production lifted VLC spot rates, as shown in slide 13. So far, most of the increase in oil demand has been done by drawing down on inventories of cheap oil that were bought in the aftermath of COVID last year. Global crude oil inventories have now reverted to normal levels, signaling the need for seaborne imports to satisfy demand increases going forward. We continue to believe that we will experience a very healthy winter market this year, similar to what happened in the VLC market in 2013 and 2018, as well as an exceptional in 2022. Back to John for an overview of our cash flow generation potential and historical capital markets track record.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thanks, Ayaseevi. On slide 14, we present our projections for profit and free cash flow to equity in 2022 and 2023 assuming various VLTC and SUSEMAC spot rate scenarios. In 2022, our cash break-even is forecast to be $23,400 per day, while profit break-even is $20,900 per day. Overall, we can expect that between 2022 and 2023, OET will be able to return 20% to 130% of its market cap in earnings back to shareholders in profits. On slide 15, we calculate our total returns since inception of 35% or 25 kroner per share for shareholders that bought into our primary and secondary issuance in 2018. I'll now turn the page to slide 16 and leave with you some concluding thoughts while we open the line for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We'll now open the lines for questions. Please press star one on your telephone keypad We also kindly ask participants submitting questions via the webcast to phrase their comments in the form of a question and refrain from abbreviations. Again, that is star one for the telephone keypad. And our first question from the phones comes from the line of Dennis Angelopoulos of ABG. When you're ready, please proceed.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Hope everything's good with you guys.

speaker
Araceli Zalafuso
COO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Hi, Dennis.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Hi, guys. So my sort of first question, of course, is congratulations on the thing for such a difficult market. You know, you guys are talking about the market bouncing back. How soon do you really expect that to be? Do you think we're going to have to wait quite a lot, like just until deep into Q4? Or are you guys already seeing some potential signs of improvement, you know, just around the corner, like a month from now?

speaker
spk06

Hi, Dennis.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Currently, we haven't seen any signs of improvement yet. We believe that the market will see significant improvements by October and November. And every month that goes by, it will increase the crew production as well as the annual seasonality. We'll have a look at that.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Okay. And just a question for John maybe here. In your financial report, you guys state that there can be potential finance breakage fees from the termination of the bare boat charters that you guys have with Ocean Yield. Do you have any idea of how high those could be, or is it a negligible amount for us to consider?

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

I would err towards the side of saying it's negligible.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Okay. All right. And then on the topic of the bare boats from Ocean Yield, you guys essentially replaced these 2019 vessels with 2022s, brand new, and probably with better financing terms. What are your thoughts on potentially doing that again with the remaining Ocean Yield vessels, you know, the two Suez Maxes and the two VLCCs? Is that sort of a thought process you have to sort of lower your financing costs and also continue rejuvenating the fleet?

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

No, I think that we found an opportunity to do it on the ship that, you know, the, the, the spot the coin that, you know, uh, I don't think such a, such a, an action is repeatable. Um, but as we've always said, we're always looking at ways to, to lower our cost of capital. And, uh, we think that, you know, for example, VLTV that we achieved on the Suez max is seeking us and CIFNOS is probably more indicative of the kind of margin over LIBOR that a company like OAT should be paying. And so we think that that kind of financing structure and margin is doable again for the two 2022 VLCCs that will join us next year. And as you pointed out, these ships will have a much more cash-generative capital structure that also build equity faster. So the combined cash flow benefit of the resale VLCCs, we think, is somewhere around $2 million per year per ship relative to the you know, to the ocean yields the LCCs.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

All right, guys. Thank you so much for the color. enjoy your families and have a good holiday. Thank you so much for today.

speaker
spk07

Bye. Thank you, Dennis. Likewise.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

At this time, another reminder, please press star 1 if you would like to ask any questions live on the call. We also have our questions submitted online. And at this time, we have no incoming questions on the phone. So we'll turn to those submitted via the webcast.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Yes. So the first question is if we can give a little bit of color on our decision to upgrade the spot exposure. So I would say that the TC swap was a market call. There's certain decisions that we need to take based on what the market is doing today such as, for example, today's capital allocation decision to preserve liquidity. And there's some decisions that we need to take based on where we see the market going, such as the TC swap decision. Right now, we're in the seasonally weakest part of the year, with the weakness being compounded further by heavy inventory destocking. It's obviously not a pleasant situation, but one that doesn't concern us much either. In that, I mean to say that we weren't expecting a strong Q2 or Q3 this year. If we end up in November and the market is still at the current levels, then that would be concerning. And we don't think that will happen for the reasons we detailed on slides 11 through 13. Really, cargo is king, and when cargo comes to market in the quantity and for as long consistently as it'll come through year-end 2022, good things tend to happen in the VLCC spot market. And what we're convinced of is that the recovery, when it does happen, will be stronger than people think because of sentiment. Because when sentiment in the VLCC market switches from negative to positive, rates respond more strongly than fundamentals alone would suggest. And then we have a question from Peter Yarlsby at Fernley's. about a discrepancy between Chinese runs and imports over the past month. And he asks our thoughts on what's happening there and whether it's just an attempt to curb the prices and potential impact further down the road. I think it's the former. I think that right now, product pricing is still a little bit weak, particularly in Asia, because of the Delta variant. And I think that refiners are sort of deliberately staying out of the spot market and not wanting to buy spot oil cargoes at today's prices, and instead are drawing down on the cheap crude stocks that they accumulated last year. And that's evidenced, as Peter points out, between the discrepancy with very strong runs, but low imports. So we think that right now, heavy inventory destocking is taking place in China, which of course, hurts the tanker market immensely in the near term, but is incredibly positive for the medium to longer term. And that's what we think is happening. And then there's a question on to what extent buybacks are on the agenda given where the equity is trading relative to steel. Great question. It's something that we consider all the time. We like to point out that insiders, rather the board, own 72% of the company. some longer-term holders close to 10%, so that our true effective free float is somewhere around 20%. It's true that we believe that we trade below NAV. We just don't think that a tender offer would make much of a dent in terms of how much shares we'd be able to buy back in the open market. It's something that we we do gauge from time to time. And I'd say that this is one of those times given pricing relative to the one to two year forward outlook that makes buybacks much more interesting. And it's certainly something that we look at very closely. And then we had one question, how we see the market in 2022 and 2023 and how we're positioned vis-a-vis long-term contractor spot. So for next year, 2022, as I pointed out, We'll have close to 80% of our shift days in the spot market. And it'll be a little bit more than that, somewhere in the mid 80s spot in 2023. So that should give you a sense of how optimistic we are about the next two years. And we're positioning our fleet to be able to capture the upside that we see coming over the, until through 2023.

speaker
Peter

And I think that's all we have. Yes, so please, please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Yes, absolutely. I'll make one last call for questions. Anyone on the phones, please press star one for live questions at this time.

speaker
spk01

And with that, I'll return over to your presenters.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you all very much for tuning in, and we look forward to chatting with you next quarter. Thank you.

speaker
spk12

Thank you guys. Have a nice afternoon.

speaker
spk04

¶¶ Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining today's event.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The conference will begin in just a few moments. Please remain on the line, and we appreciate your patience. Again, thank you for joining the OET second quarter. 2021 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. Thank you.

speaker
spk04

Thank you. Thank you. Hello and welcome to the OET second quarter 2021 financial results presentation.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We will begin shortly. and John Babayuanu, CFO of Okeanos EcoTankers, will take you through the presentation. They will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call. I will advise you that this session is being recorded. John will now begin the presentation.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Welcome to the presentation of OET's results for the second quarter of 2021. We will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations about future events, including OET's commercial performance, dividend policy, projected dry dock schedules, and anticipated debt capital commitments. Actual results may differ materially from the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements. Starting on slide three, we review the highlights of the quarter. We generated net revenue of $35 million, adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, an adjusted profit of $4 million, or 11 cents per share, currently the only tanker company to post a profit in Q2. We distributed $24 million to our shareholders during the quarter. Since its inception, OET has generated a 35% total return for its shareholders. We took steps to optimize our VLCC fleet and charter portfolio. Specifically, we sold two 2019 built VLCCs, the Niso Sardiparos and Niso Santorini for 90 million each, and acquired two 2022-billed VLCCs for 97 million each. The three-year age-adjusted spread of 7 million per VLCC compares very favorably to a three-year straight-line depreciation-based spread of approximately 12 million per VLCC, thus making the transaction immediately accretive to NAV upon delivery of the ships in first half 2022. Furthermore, We replaced time charters on the VLCC's Nisos Serrinha and Nisos do Espoticó with those on existing VLCCs, creating additional spot exposure for the company. Lastly, our Board of Directors has decided to postpone any further capital distributions until the aforementioned sale of the two VLCCs is completed. OET will distribute any excess cash buildup through the sale back to shareholders, as it has done previously. I'll now hand it over to Adi Sisi for an overview of our continued industry-leading commercial performance.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you, John. Once again, OET is trending as the top performer in the spot market for VLCCs and Suez Maxes in Q2 and Q3. During Q2, we achieved a fleet-wide TCE rate of $27,200 per operating day, net of 5% technical off-hire days. Our VLCCs generated $14,300 per day in the spot market, a 22% outperformance relative to our tanker peers that have reported Q2 earnings. During the quarter, we took advantage of the weak market to make some light repairs on our VLCC fleet to prepare for uninterrupted winter trading. Our Suez Maxes generated $18,800 per spot day, 32% higher than the tanker peer group average. We benefited from several front haul voyages to the east as well as a positive IFRS impact. Lastly, generated $16,000 per spot day, 57% higher than the tanker peer group average. We delivered the to their new owners and benefited from long haul on the vessel's last voyages. We were also able to capture some of the upside from a spike in the MED early in the quarter on two voyages. Overall, the market was characterized by weak sentiment and low volatility, with an oversupply of ships prevailing in almost every trading basin. In this context, there were very few opportunities available to make money trading our fleet. On slide five, we provide an overview of our guidance for Q3. So far in Q3, We have fixed 43% of our VLCC spot days at $15,600 per day, with VLCC spot rates currently around $11,000 per day. 57% of our Suezmax spot days at $18,600 per day, with Suezmax spot rates currently around $9,000 per day. And all of our AlphaMax spot days at $12,900 per day, with Erechia to be delivered to her new owners next week. Faced with the guidance and current spot conditions, we expect our Q3TC revenue to be in the mid-low $20 million. The bad news is as bad as we've ever seen the market. The good news is the reason why it's bad. Inventory drawdowns. Refiners are choosing not to import expensive spot-owned cargoes, but instead are drawing down on cheap crude they bought last year and held in storage. The next round of refiner buying will have to be from the seaborne market, which will be very positive for tankers. On slide 6, we provide an overview of our fleet and charter portfolio. For full year 2022, we will operate 14 vessels, 6 Suez Maxes and 8 VLCCs. Two of the 6 Suez Maxes and one of the 8 VLCCs will be on time charges. leaving 79% of available days on a spot market to capitalize on what we believe will be a very strong recovery rate. And now back to John to walk you through the financials.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thanks, Adi-Phili. Starting with our income statement on slide seven. In Q2, daily office excluding management fees averaged $6,700 per day, while daily G&A came in at an industry low $400 per day. So far, OET has been the only tanker company to remain profitable in Q2. Moving to slide 8, we report book value of 98 kroner per share following a write-down of paid-in capital and distribution to our shareholders. Moving to slide 9, we summarize our cash flows and CapEx commitments. Of the $194 million CapEx related to the acquisition of the two VLTCs, $17.4 million is payable to our chairman by year end. $141.5 million is due to the yard on delivery. And $35.1 million is payable to our chairman and may be deferred at OET sole discretion to any date before the end of June 2024 at a cost of 3.5% fixed interest per year on the outstanding amount commencing from the date of the new VLCC's delivery. Against this CAPEX, We have received firm indications for low-cost, high-LTV delivery financing for multiple large and reputable financial institutions and calculate that the anticipated capital structure of the new VLCCs will reduce cash break-evens by $3,100 per shift day and accelerate equity build-up by $1 million per year per shift relative to the current lease financing of the second-hand VLCCs, despite carrying roughly the same leverage. The sale and acquisition will also reduce the already industry low average age of the company's fleet and improve its emissions performance. Shifting to slide 10, we provide a comprehensive overview of our debt stack. Our all-in cost of debt is roughly 3.5%. Our debt stood at $758 million at quarter end and is set to decline further to $560 million by year end following the retirement of debt of one Afromax and two VLCCs . Following the sale of the Afromax fleet, we now have no debt maturities until 2025. Back to Aristides to walk you through our market outlook.

speaker
Aristides
Head of Market Research, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you again, John.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Analysts estimate that the crude production will need to increase by 4 million barrels per day in the second half of 21 in order to not deplete inventories to critically low levels. Despite uncertainty due to the Delta variant, oil demand is holding up well and is forecast to increase to over 100 million barrels per day by December. On slide 12, we see that the crude production increase between now and the end of 2022 will be the biggest and longest increase in recent history. Increases in crude oil production and seaborne trade is a driver of tanker market strength. This was proven in the period 2013 to 2015 and again in 2017 to 2018. when consistent growth in crude oil production lifted BLC spot rates, as shown in slide 13. So far, most of the increase in oil demand has been by drawing down on inventories of cheap oil that were bought in the aftermath of COVID last year. Global crude oil inventories have now reverted to normal levels, signaling the need for seaborne imports to satisfy demand increases going forward. We continue to believe that we will experience a very healthy winter market this year, similar to what happened in the VLC market in 2013 and 2018, as well as an exceptional in 2022. Back to John for an overview of our cash flow generation potential and historical capital markets track record.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thanks, Haider Sibi. On slide 14, we present our projections for profit and free cash flow to equity in 2022 and 2023 assuming various VLTC and SUSEMAC spot rate scenarios. In 2022, our cash break-even is forecast to be $23,400 per day, while profit break-even is $20,900 per day. Overall, we can expect that between 2022 and 2023, OET will be able to return 20% to 130% of its market cap in earnings back to shareholders in profits. On slide 15, we calculate our total returns since inception of 35% or 25 kroner per share for shareholders that bought into our primary and secondary issuance in 2018. I'll now turn the page to slide 16 and leave with you some concluding thoughts while we open the line for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We'll now open the lines for questions. Please press star one on your telephone keypad We also kindly ask participants submitting questions via the webcast to phrase their comments in the form of a question and refrain from abbreviations. Again, that is star one for the telephone keypad. And our first question from the phones comes from the line of Dennis Angelopoulos of ABG. When you're ready, please proceed.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Hope everything is good with you guys.

speaker
Araceli Zalafuso
COO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Hi, Dennis.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Hi, guys. So my sort of first question, of course, is congratulations on staying profitable in such a difficult market. You know, you guys are talking about the market bouncing back. How soon do you really expect that to be? Do you think we're going to have to wait quite a lot, like just until deep into Q4? Or are you guys already seeing some potential signs of improvement, you know, just around the corner, like a month from now?

speaker
spk06

Hi, Dennis.

speaker
Taddy Steezy
Chief Commercial Officer, Okeanos EcoTankers

Currently, we haven't seen any signs of improvement yet. We believe that the market will see significant improvements by October and November. And every month that goes by, we'll increase the crew production as well as the annual seasonality. And we'll help get us there.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Okay. And just a question for John maybe here. In your financial report, you guys state that there can be potential finance breakage fees from the termination of the bare boat charters that you guys have with Ocean Yield. Do you have any idea of how high those could be, or is it a negligible amount for us to consider?

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

I would err towards the side of saying it's negligible.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

Okay. All right. And then on the topic of the bare boats from Ocean Yield, you guys essentially replaced these 2019 vessels with 2022s, brand new, and probably with better financing terms. What are your thoughts on potentially doing that again with the remaining Ocean Yield vessels, the two Suez Maxes and the two VLCCs? Is that sort of a thought process you have to sort of lower your financing costs and also continue rejuvenating the fleet?

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

No, I think that we found an opportunity to do it on the ships that, you know, the Spoticon and the Riña. I don't think such an action is repeatable. But as we've always said, we're always looking at ways to lower our cost of capital. And we think that, you know, for example, the LTV that we achieved on the Suez Maxis, Siginos and Sifnos is probably more indicative of the kind of margin over LIBOR that a company like OAT should be paying. And so we think that that kind of financing structure and margin is doable again for the two 2022 VLCCs that will join us next year. And as you pointed out, these ships will have a much more cash-generative capital structure that also builds equity faster. So the combined cash flow benefit of the resale VLCCs we think is somewhere around $2 million per year per ship relative to the you know, to the ocean yields the LCCs.

speaker
Dennis Angelopoulos
Analyst, ABG

All right, guys. Thank you so much for the color. enjoy your families and have a good holiday. Thank you so much for today. Bye.

speaker
spk07

Thank you, Dennis. Likewise.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

At this time, another reminder, please press star 1 if you would like to ask any questions live on the call. We also have our questions submitted online. And at this time, we have no incoming questions on the phone. So we'll turn to those submitted via the webcast.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Yes. So the first question is if we can give a little bit of color on our decision to upgrade the spot exposure. So I would say that the TC swap was a market call. There's certain decisions that we need to take based on what the market is doing today such as, for example, today's capital allocation decision to preserve liquidity. And there's some decisions that we need to take based on where we see the market going, such as the TC swap decision. Right now, we're in the seasonally weakest part of the year, with the weakness being compounded further by heavy inventory destocking. It's obviously not a pleasant situation, but one that doesn't concern us much either. In that I mean to say that we weren't expecting a strong Q2 or Q3 this year. If we end up in November and the market is still at the current levels, then that would be concerning. And we don't think that will happen for the reasons we detailed on slides 11 through 13. Really cargo is king and when cargoes come to market in the quantity and for as long consistently as it'll come through year end 2022, good things tend to happen in the VLCC spot market. And what we're convinced of is that the recovery, when it does happen, will be stronger than people think because of sentiment. Because when sentiment in the VLCC market switches from negative to positive, rates respond more strongly than fundamentals alone would suggest. And then we have a question from Peter Yarlsby at Fernley's. about a discrepancy between Chinese runs and imports over the past month. And he asks our thoughts on what's happening there and whether it's just an attempt to curb the prices and potential impact further down the road. I think it's the former. I think that right now, product pricing is still a little bit weak, particularly in Asia, because of the Delta variant. And I think that refiners are sort of deliberately staying out of the spot market and not wanting to buy spot oil cargoes at today's prices, and instead are drawing down on the cheap crude stocks that they accumulated last year. And that's evidenced, as Peter points out, between the discrepancy with very strong runs, but low imports. So we think that right now, heavy inventory destocking is taking place in China, which of course, hurts the tanker market immensely in the near term, but it's incredibly positive for the medium to longer term. And that's what we think is happening. And then there's a question on to what extent buybacks are on the agenda given where the equity is trading relative to steel. Great question. It's something that we consider all the time. We like to point out that insiders, rather the board, own 72% of the company. some longer-term holders close to 10%, so that our true effective free float is somewhere around 20%. It's true that we believe that we trade below NAV. We just don't think that a tender offer would make much of a dent in terms of how much shares we'd be able to buy back in the open market. It's something that we... we do gauge from time to time. And I'd say that this is one of those times given pricing relative to the one to two year forward outlook that makes buybacks much more interesting. And it's certainly something that we look at very closely. And then we had one question, how we see the market in 2022 and 2023 and how we're positioned vis-a-vis long-term contracts or SPA. So for next year, 2022, as I pointed out, we'll have close to 80% of our shift days in the spot market. And it'll be a little bit more than that, somewhere in the mid 80s spot in 2023. So that should give you a sense of how optimistic we are about the next two years. And we're positioning our fleet to be able to capture the upside that we see coming over the, until through 2023.

speaker
Peter

And I think that's all we have. Yes, so please, please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Yes, absolutely. I'll make one last call for questions. Anyone on the phones, please press star one for live questions at this time.

speaker
spk01

And with that, I'll return over to you presenters.

speaker
John Babayuanu
CFO, Okeanos EcoTankers

Thank you all very much for tuning in, and we look forward to chatting with you next quarter. Thank you.

speaker
spk12

Thank you guys. Have a nice afternoon.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you everyone for joining today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Please stay connected.

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