2/20/2025

speaker
Moderator
Host

Hello and welcome to OET's fourth quarter 2024 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. Aristidis Alasizos, CEO and Iraklis Sperounis, CFO of Okeanos Eco Tankers, will take you through the presentation. They will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call. I would like to advise you that this session is being recorded. Iraklis will begin the presentation now.

speaker
Iraklis Sperounis
CFO

Welcome to the presentation of Okeanos Eco Tankers results for the fourth quarter of 2024. We will discuss matters that are poor looking in nature and actual results may differ from the expectations reflected in such poor looking statements. Please read through the relevant disclaimer on slide two. So starting on slide four in the executive summary. I'm pleased to present the highlights of the fourth quarter of 2024. While Q4 fell short of the market's expectations a few months back, it closes a year of very healthy commercial and financial results. We achieved fleet-wide time charter equivalent of about $39,000 per vessel per day. Our VXRCs were at $38,500 and our SUSE maxes at $39,500. We report adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, adjusted net profit of $13 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41. Continuing to deliver on our commitment to distribute value to our shareholders, our board declared an 11th consecutive distribution in the form of a dividend of $0.35 per share. Total distributions over the last four quarters due to $3 per share or 89% of our earnings for the year. In November, we successfully completed the five-year drive-off for the nation's ANUSA, concluding our six-vessel 2024 VXRCs drive-off project. We look into 2028 with only our two 2020-bill SUSE maxes, which will undergo their five-year drive-off sometime in the second or third quarter. So on slide five, we show the detail of our income statement for the quarter and full year. For the year in 2024, our PCE revenues stood at $262 million with daily fleet-wide PCE of $53,000 per day, 56% of the VXRCs and 49% in the SUSE maxes. EBITDA was approximately $204 million and net income was just shy of $109 million or $3.38 per share. Moving on to slide six and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $54 million of cash. Our balance sheet debt continues to amortize by approximately $12 million every quarter, now standing at $646 million as of year-end. On slide seven, we recap our main drivers behind our operational and commercial success and one of our key competitive advantages, our fleet. Our 14 vessels, all built at first-class yards in Korea and Japan, have an average age of 5.4 years. That is the youngest crude oil tanker fleet amongst these ships. We are also the only pure eco and fully scrubber fitted fleet. These elements allow us to set a benchmark above the spot market established by conventional or mixed fields. Slide eight, moving on to our capital structure. After a busy 12 months, we're now in a position to reap the benefits of the improved pricing achieved by refinancing most of our vessels. Having improved our margins by 130 basis points across 12 vessels, our interest expense starts to show material improvement in Q4 and going forward. We have successfully set our robust balance sheet with added flexibility and extended materials. Our book leverage stands at 59%, while our market-adjusted net LPV is approximately 40%. Our financings are a mix of traditional mortgage-backed banking loans as well as sale and lease backs and our financiers are balanced with both traditional European shipping banks as well as Asian banks and leasing houses. We are particularly happy to have relationships in all these markets. This gives us flexibility in the future and allows us to develop and strengthen relationships. We look forward to next year when we will have the opportunity to refinance the last five layers within our capital structure, the NISO Zinia and the NISO Despotico, a massive opportunity for further improvement over break-even costs. In the meantime, while we're not actively in pursuit of further deeds, we're always on the lookout for our creative opportunities. If one arises in this competitive financing market and it makes sense, we will not hesitate to take advantage of it. I will now pass the presentation to Aristides for the commercial market. Thank

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

you,

speaker
Iraklis Sperounis
CFO

Reckley.

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

Let me start by saying that Q4 was less interesting than we expected, but at least Q1 of 2025 began on a different note. In early Q1, the Biden administration significantly expanded the sanctions framework, which impacted more vessels, Russian banks and charters. Almost immediately, the market rebounded quickly and significantly, a topic we will discuss in more detail later on. However, Q4 ended relatively weakly with crude markets lacking their usual seasonality. During Q4 and specifically in November, as Reckley mentioned earlier, we successfully completed the five-year dry dock for NISO's Danusa, marking the conclusion of our six vessel VLCC dry dock project. Given the crude market weakness, we took the opportunity to clean up one more VLCC and repositioned her in the West. Again, this captured a higher earnings spot voyage for a backhaul that we like doing to bring our ships to the West. We also continued to strategically position our vessels in the West with selective Suezmax voyages to the East to maximise the earnings potential. As a result, our Suezmaxs are performed our VLCCs in the fourth quarter. Despite the continued seasonal weakness from Q3, we achieved a fleet-wide PC rate of 39,000 per operating day for the fourth quarter and 52,900 per operating day for the full year of 2024, while utilisation stood at 98% in Q4 and 97% for the full year, demonstrating efficient vessel deployment. If we compare our earnings with peers that have already reported Q4 results, our out performance for the year stood at 19% for the VLCCs and 29% for the Suezmaxes. Now going into Q1, and as mentioned earlier, the expanded sanctions framework has significantly improved the market. The Chinese, Indians and Turkish buyers became wary of using sanctions ships and more specifically of buying Russian and Iranian crude oil in general. As a result, they started sourcing alternative crews, leading with India and China actively importing from West Africa, the Middle East and the US Gulf and Brazil. These ships have notably improved market rates and sentiments. In addition to the above, continued growth in Brazilian crude production is boosting demand for long haul voyages. As far as our fleet is concerned, fleet triangulation remains a priority, ensuring we maximise laden legs and optimise vessel deployment. We have also repositioned one of our Suezmaxes to the clean product trade, allowing us to capture premium earnings while repositioning her to the West after her front haul voyage to the East we fixed in Q4. Given these developments so far in Q1 of 2025, we have fixed 81% of VLTC spot days at 39,100 per day and 77% of Suezmax spot days at 33,400 per day. With the ongoing OPIC Plus production policies and the new US sanctions on Russian and Iran, we see further upside potential for ton-mile demand in the near term. Today we are earning around $50,000 per day on the VLTCs and $45,000 to $50,000 on the Suezmaxes. Many of the stronger pictures we concluded after mid-January when the market firms will reflect in the last part of our Q1 earnings as well as in our Q2. Similarly to the full year 2024 results and based on periods that have reported earnings, our Q1 performance on fixed days stands at 7% outperformance for the VLTCs and 39% for the Suezmaxes. As we now move to slide 12, OET remains the only publicly listed pure play echo scrubber fitted tanker platform, enabling us to consistently outperform the market. Our VLTC and Suezmax fleets have delivered higher TCs than our peer group for multiple years, reinforcing our competitive advantage. In 2024, OET's VLTCs significantly outperformed peers, demonstrating the earnings, power of our modern fleets and the strong performance of our commercial fleets. It is important to note that for Q4 2024, we have used guidance figures for peers that have not reported yet. We believe the gap will widen even further once actual rates are published. All in all, our charting team, fuel efficient vessels, scrubber advantage and strategic training patterns continue to differentiate OET as well as the online market. Now let's discuss the market outlook and the latest market dynamics. On slide 13, we see the crude tanker market is experiencing a structural supply imbalance, driven by an aging fleet and low new building orders. By 2028, over 700 VLTCs and Suezmaxes will be more than 20 years old, while only around 200 vessels are scheduled for delivery in the same period, indicating a further tightening of supply. Notably, this calculation does not even account for vessels over the age of 15 years old, which will be less efficient and by 2028 will represent 40 to 50 percent of both seconds. Additionally, the expanded sanction list now includes almost 10 percent of both VLTCs and Suezmax fleets, while 20 percent of the total VLTC and Suezmax fleets operate in the dark race fleet and with limited yard availability and rising shipbuilding costs, fleet expansion remains significantly constrained. Also, if sanction enforcement continues, the sanctions fleet can double as we calculate 10 percent of the fleet is engaged in OFAC sanctionable activity, especially involved in Iranian and Venezuelan business, which is almost exclusively reliant on VLTCs. Against this backdrop, OET's modern fleet and eco positions as well to capitalize on the supply constraints that's coming. Now moving on to slide 14, crude demand is expected to outpace supply in 2025, driving increased time miles and higher fleet utilization. Key agencies forecast a continued recovery in oil demand, particularly from Asia. China had positive data with strong traveling around the lunar new year and a new record corporate borrowing in January. Refinery alignments and new sourcing routes are leading to longer voyages and greater tanker utilization. Geopolitical factors, sanctions and shifting traders are further strengthening demand for modern compliance fleets like OET. We expect these factors to support higher fleet utilization and firmer rates in the coming quarters. From slides 15 to 18, we aim to illustrate the significance of sanctions exposed trade and its potential impact on the conventional fleet in light of the latest wave of sanctions. The shadow fleet has expanded due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and Venezuela. Approximately 20% of the global tanker fleet is now engaged in sanctioned trade, with 10% already being on the old fac list, effectively reducing the supply of vessels available in the conventional market. As compliance measures tighten, compliance fleets will be more positioned to capture premium rates driven by higher utilization. We believe the market divide between compliant and non-compliant fleets will continue to widen, favoring modern, efficient and transparent operators. As mentioned earlier, India, China and Turkey are increasingly moving away from sanctions exposed trade, seeking compliant crews from alternative routes. This shifts both ton-mile demand and the utilization of the conventional fleet. Slide 16 focuses on Iran, and given the new administration in the US, a potential decrease in the rating exports level seen during the previous Trump administration could push conventional VLCC fleet utilization above 90%, which has historically led to very strong tanker market rates. To conclude the presentation, a reduction in Russian and Iranian exports could generate a significant increase in demand for modern, supplying VLCC. If all Russian and Iranian barrels are lost and replaced by long-haul VLCC voyages, we estimate a need for an additional 20 to 60 VLCCs. The current fleet size, order book and utilization of close to 88% do not support such an increase, reinforcing the bullish outlook for compliant modern fleets. OET is oftenly positioned to capitalize on these shifts and generate strong task force for shareholders. During the Q4 softness, OET delivered a strong full-year performance and remains well-positioned for 2025. Market fundamentals remain supportive with tight supply, increasing ton-miles and geopolitical shifts working in our favor. We will continue to optimize our fleet, maximize utilization and capitalize on strategic advantages. With that, we thank you for your time and happy to take any questions.

speaker
Moderator
Host

Thank you. If you would like to ask your question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star 2. Our first question comes from Liam Burke at BU Riley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Liam Burke
Analyst at BU Riley

Yes, thank you very much. In your prepared remarks, you laid out a number of strong reasons why there will be tight capacity for the VLCC class going forward. What would you say are some of the positive pressures on Suezmax capacity going forward?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

Hi, Liam. Thank you for your question. A large part of the Suezmax trade, of the Suezmax, hold on, a large part of the Russian trading fleet right now moving the Russian barrels uses Suezmax vessels. So over time, if we see further sanctioning of that fleet, it will further tighten the supply of Suezmax vessels. And the age profile on that fleet is very old as well. In addition to that, and I think more importantly, we've seen that with the reduction of interest from Indians and the Chinese for buying, you know, whether Russian and for the Chinese, Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, it opens the arc for longer haul voyages on NASA classes that are less efficient than the VLCC. So you have to look at Suezmaxes. For example, a trend we've seen recently is that there's a big port in the Black Sea controlled predominantly by Western oil majors, including Chevron, called CPC. Historically, this port has lifted Afromax and Suezmax and cargoes because nothing larger than a Suezmax can fit laden through the Turkish trade. Because of the tightness due to the lack of purchasing of Iranian and Russian barrels, we've seen that there's been CPC cargoes that are moving again towards Asia. While since the Red Sea closed, this trade has completely stopped. In January, for example, prior to the, in February prior to the sanctions on the Russian fleet, there were no cargoes that were sold in the East. While after the sanctions were put on in February, we already have 11 cargoes potentially going East just from this one port. So I think we'll see more barrels from whether West Africa, Libya, Algeria, the Black Sea moving East on the Suezmaxes. And we're quite constructive on the Suezmax segment.

speaker
Liam Burke
Analyst at BU Riley

Great. Thank you. You talked about a slow start to the first quarter 25 and you announced the fixtures for above the Suez and BLCCs for a partial quarter, for most of the first quarter. Then you followed by saying that there's strength into the end of the first quarter and into second quarter, which generally you think a second quarter would, you see moderation in rates. What do you see into the second quarter as driving the rate momentum here?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

All right. Well, I think one thing to understand is that, especially on the BLCCs, and if you're fixing longer voyages from the US Gulf, you're going to be working very far ahead. So you're going to be working maybe even a month or a bit longer ahead. So in December, like in mid-December, we were negotiating a cargo that would load in mid or end January and that void would last through Q1. So a weak fixture in Q4 might have little impact on actual Q4 and have a big impact on Q1. And maybe even, I mean, if it's a round voyage from the US Gulf East, which we don't do, but it could even lead into Q2. So I think what we were saying is that the fixtures that we fixed after January 15, which was when Biden sanctioned the additional ships and the charters and squeezed the system, have improved a lot. But because those fixtures you're fixing maybe a month in advance from the US Gulf on a BLCC or slightly less on the Suez Max, you'll only start feeling them towards the end of Q1 when the vessel actually loads and discharges, especially with the IFRS accounting principles, and they will roll into Q2 as well. I think that our earnings for Q1 were also impacted by the IFRS TCE principles, which were impacted at times more because of the slightly smaller fleet than some of our peers who have 50 or 60 ships. And three or four ships having a very bad, by the principles how you allocate the income makes a much bigger effect to us. Great.

speaker
Liam Burke
Analyst at BU Riley

Thank you very much.

speaker
Moderator
Host

Thank you. Our next question is from Bendik Nitingnes from Clarkson Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Bendik Nitingnes
Analyst at Clarkson Securities

Yes, thank you. So to my understanding, you now have one Suez Max that is cleaned up, and that's the only one cleaning in your fleet as of now, if that's correct?

speaker
Reckley
Representative at Clarkson Securities

Yeah, that's correct.

speaker
Bendik Nitingnes
Analyst at Clarkson Securities

And I just wanted to ask a bit about the dynamic there, because you have been cleaning up several of your real feats previously, and how easy is it going to be to switch those back into the clean trade? Is it easier now that you have cleaned them relatively recently, or is it going to take the same couple of weeks to get that done?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

No, once you go dirty, the cleaning process is more or less similar. Maybe it's slightly, but marginally easier, but we would allocate the same cost and time when we're budgeting for avoidance.

speaker
Bendik Nitingnes
Analyst at Clarkson Securities

And for the Suez Max now, do you expect to keep that trading clean, or is it as the older ones sort of opportunistically positioned in the clean market for a single voyage?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

No, we basically sailed the disport in Asia. We had this clean opportunity. We compared it with a crude opportunity to come west and reposition the ship in the west. The clean voyage made a little bit more money, and we knew the cargo was firm, because with the counterparty we worked with before, so we took the opportunity to book it. I think once we come west, I think with almost certainty, I can say we'll go back into the crude market.

speaker
Reckley
Representative at Clarkson Securities

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

Thank

speaker
Moderator
Host

you. The next question is from Petter Haugen at ABG. Please go ahead.

speaker
Petter Haugen
Analyst at ABG

Good afternoon, guys. First question on the market in terms of what can happen here. There are obviously lots of alternatives, but in terms of only the Red Sea transits, if we were to assume that the only thing changing from now to the future is normal transits through the Red Sea again, how do you think that will impact your markets, the -sur-Sea and the Suez Max markets?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

Hi, Petter. Thanks for your question, and thanks for only asking one part of all these different elements like Russia and Iran, because you can go on and speak for hours. But about the Red Sea, I think initially most of these changes and disruptions that occur to the oil markets are positive for tankers. I definitely think it would be positive for Suez Maxes, because it'll bring back part of the trade, which has been priced out just because of the cost to go around the Cape. And this is principally either the Basra West on Suez Maxes, which was a huge trade before, and that today has just been cannibalized by the VLCC because they load two Basra stems to go around the Cape, and also to see Mediterranean and Black Sea barrels going east again, which completely stopped. So I would say that overall for the Suez Maxes, it may be positive for the Red Sea to reopen.

speaker
Petter Haugen
Analyst at ABG

Okay, and for the VLCCs, you think?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

I don't think it'll have a major impact for the VLCCs. There's been a lot of, you know, some of the people who have equity barrels and they discharge in the Red Sea and loading from the AG. They're using their own ships for this, so you might see a bit more business for the normal fleet to do this business. But I think for the VLCCs, they won't have the same impact as it will for the Suez Maxes.

speaker
Petter Haugen
Analyst at ABG

Okay, thank you. If I could follow up with a few questions on what to use in valuation really. So currently, we see brokers are quoting for the five-year eco VLCC $112, similar for Suez Maxes at $74. So these numbers are obviously lower than they were last summer, but I would say it looks as if they're holding up quite well, although we haven't seen that, or at least I haven't seen that many relevant transactions here. So in terms of $112 for a -year-old VLCC and $74 for a -year-old Suez Max, how do you think those numbers compare to if you were to see a transaction today in the markets?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

I think as you correctly mentioned, there haven't been many transactions recently, so it's hard to benchmark where prices are today. At times since last summer the period you mentioned, the markets felt weaker a little bit, but as these potential developments happen around Iranian reduction in Iranian exports and Chinese imports of Iranian crude, I don't think that the VLCCs will fluctuate down very much at all. I think that there is such a limited pool of sellers of -year-old VLCCs that their values are quite firm. I think as well on the Suez Maxes, it's just the Suez Maxes have a much bigger order book and delivering sooner, so there may be some downside and potential market weakness on Suez Max values, but on the VLCCs, I'm pretty confident.

speaker
Petter Haugen
Analyst at ABG

I understand. Okay, thank you. And a fine one from me in terms of well outlook here, I guess it's fair. Well my interpretation is that you're still pretty optimistic, but if given the opportunity to take coverage now, what would you seem to be interesting in terms of say one and three years for VLCCs and Suez Maxes?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

I mean I think we have the classic Greek approach which is 5,000 higher than the charter's ideas. But you know, I mean generally speaking the market for TCs, it gets a lot more liquid when the market is firming a lot. And so if there's an opportunity to time charter out some vessels, you have to take advantage of that when there's a big movement in spot rates and also in paper rates. Unfortunately, most of the charters today, they do tend to hedge a part or most of their TC exposure using SFA. So a liquid time charter market often needs to coincide with a liquid SFA market. And I think there's a lot of, you know, if you're aware of when these opportunities present themselves, you can find some attractive deals to do. So it's something we've looked at in the past. We didn't really find it that attractive, but we will keep looking at it in the next pipe as well.

speaker
Petter Haugen
Analyst at ABG

Okay, thank you. Thanks for that color. That's all for me.

speaker
Moderator
Host

The next question is from Clément Molins, Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead.

speaker
Clément Molins
Analyst at Value Investors Edge

Good afternoon. Thank you for this thorough presentation. Most has already been covered, but I wanted to delve a bit into the dark fleet and the sanctions currently in place on Russian trade. Could you give us some color on whether there are big differences on utilization of targeted vessels by European or United States sanctions? Do standalone European sanctions also have a large impact on efficiency?

speaker
Aristidis Alasizos
CEO

Hey Clément, thanks for your question. I think by far the biggest impact on utilization is by US sanctions. I don't think that the impact of EU sanctions or UK sanctions is very large to Chinese buyers, although it may be more pertinent to Indian and to Turkish buyers. But for sure utilization falls drastically once you enter the gray fleet. And then even more so if you're sanctioned by the EU or the UK. And I think drastically so if you're sanctioned by the US. You know, I mean some of the research outlets like Kepler or even some of the shipping broker, they do some really nice research on this, which I'm sure you can find some articles that they describe and they go through each ship by ship and compute some nice data.

speaker
Clément Molins
Analyst at Value Investors Edge

Makes sense. Thanks for the color. I'll turn it over. Thank you for taking my questions.

speaker
Moderator
Host

As a final call for any last questions, please press start one on your telephone keypad. We have no further questions on the call, so I'll hand the floor back to Iraqlis for any closing remarks.

speaker
Iraklis Sperounis
CFO

Thank you. Thanks everyone for listening in. I will look forward to catching up again in mid-May for Q1. Thank you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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