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Equifax, Inc.
10/17/2024
Greetings and welcome to the Equifax Inc. Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone requires operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Trevor Burns, SVP, Head of Corporate Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Trevor Burns. With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded, and archival recording will be available later today in the IR calendar section of the news and events tab at our investor relations website. During the call, we will be making reference to certain materials It can also be found in the presentation section of the news and events tab at our IR website. These materials are labeled 3Q2024, earnings conference call. Also, we're making certain forward-looking statements, including fourth quarter and full year 2024 guidance, as well as certain 2025 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. We will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, which will be adjusted for certain items to affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included with our earnings release and can be found in the financial results section of the financial info tab at our IR website. In the third quarter, Equifax incurred a restructuring charge for cost reduction actions aligned with the completion of the migration of significant data exchanges and applications in the United States and Canada and certain countries in Latin America to the Equifax cloud, as well as cost actions to streamline our workforce globally. These charges total $42 million and are expected to deliver ongoing savings when completed in early 2025 of over $70 million a year. We expect to generate further savings as we complete cloud migrations in Europe, the remainder of Latin America and Brazil, and Australia and New Zealand, principally over 2025 and 2026. Now I'd like to turn it over to Mark.
Thanks, Trevor, and good morning. Before I cover our strong third quarter results, I want to update you on the strong progress of our cloud transformation. In the quarter, USIS completed the migration onto the cloud data fabric of the remaining customers and services for their consumer credit and telco and utilities exchanges, which is a huge milestone. Along with EWS, the Work Number Exchange, which we completed migrating to the Equifax Cloud over two years ago, we now have our three largest data exchanges in the new Equifax Cloud. As of the end of September, we have about 80% of Equifax revenue in the Equifax Cloud and expect to approach 90% of our revenue in the Equifax cloud by year end. The cloud migrations have been a huge effort across Equifax over the past four plus years requiring a ton of focus by the entire Equifax team. We expect to have a significant competitive advantage as we fully deploy our new cloud capabilities and pivot from building to leveraging the cloud in 2025 and beyond that will allow us to fully focus on customers, growth, innovation, new products, and AI. Pleading the USIS consumer and telco and utility migrations to the Equifax cloud allowed us to begin decommissioning legacy on-prem systems and software in USIS in the third quarter, supporting our goal of cloud spending reductions in 2024, which expand our operating margins and are lowering the capital intensity of our businesses, our business in 2025 and beyond. In the third quarter, We also made substantial progress in our international technology transformation activities with Canada completing migration of all customers off of their consumer and commercial credit exchanges onto the new EFX cloud data fabric. This is another big accomplishment for the international team with cloud migrations in Argentina, Chile, and the Dominican Republic completed earlier in the year, adding to Canada's completion a few weeks ago. Our international cloud migration efforts will continue in 25 and 26, resulting in additional cloud savings as those migrations are completed. It is energizing to be approaching the finish line of our cloud transformation. We are entering the next chapter of the new Equifax as we pivot from building the new Equifax cloud to leveraging our new cloud capabilities to drive our top and bottom line. Turning to slide four, we had a strong third quarter with reported revenue of $1.42 billion, of 9% and at the top end of our July guidance, with organic constant dollar revenue of 10%, which is at the top end of our long-term growth framework. Adjusted EBITDA margins at just under 33% were in line with our expectations, and adjusted EPS of $1.85 per share was the top end of our July guidance. Our global non-mortgage businesses, which represent about 80% of total revenue in the quarter, had strong 10% constant currency revenue growth, which was in line with our expectations. Non-mortgage organic constant currency revenue growth was 8% in the quarter. The strong non-mortgage performance was driven by 9% growth in EWS, with very strong 19% non-mortgage growth in EWS verifier, led by very strong 29% growth in government and talent that was up over 9% in EWS. USIS non-mortgage revenue growth of almost 5% was stronger than our expectations, principally from our consumer business and financial marketing services, our offline batch business. International delivered just under 18% constant dollar revenue growth and strong 12% organic growth, led by continued strong growth in Latin America and Europe. Total US mortgage revenue was up 17% in the quarter and above, our July guidance. U.S. mortgage revenue was 20% of Equifax revenue in the quarter. In late September, as mortgage rates declined to just over 6%, we saw modest mortgage inquiry activity increases. We believe this improvement was likely led by mortgage refi activity off the lower mortgage rates. New home purchase activity appears to have remained at the lower levels we've been seeing throughout 2024, reflecting continued low home inventory levels, elevated home prices impacting affordability, and prospective homebuyers waiting for further mortgage rate reductions. As mortgage rates increased in early October to over 6.6%, we have seen mortgage activity reduced to levels closer to what we saw in July and August. John will cover our expectations for mortgage activity in the fourth quarter shortly, but we continue to believe that activity will improve towards 2015 to 2019 levels as mortgage rates come down in the future. In the third quarter, the growth in mortgage revenue was driven principally by USIS where mortgage revenue was up a strong 36% and slightly above our expectations. This strong growth was again driven by the benefit of strong vendor pricing actions and the performance of our new mortgage pre-qual products. The lower mortgage rates we saw in late September did drive a small increase in mortgage application activity, which benefited USIS in the quarter. EWS mortgage revenue returned to growth with revenue of 4% and was also slightly better than our expectations. As a reminder, EWS mortgage inquiry volumes lag USIS credit inquiry volumes as credit is pulled earlier in the mortgage application cycle than income and employment, which is typically pulled in the middle and of course at closing of the mortgage application. USIS typically sees the benefits of mortgage shopping behavior earlier and to a greater extent than EWS. As a result, EWS did not see the same level of incremental inquiry volume as USIS did from the slight increase in mortgage activity that occurred in late September. EWS mortgage revenue exceeded twin inquiry volume by about 9.5% in the quarter, up a very strong 300 basis points sequentially from second quarter, principally from strong twin record growth. Equifax had another strong quarter of new product innovation with a VI or Vitality Index of 13% above our 10% guidance for the year and our long-term framework of 10% vitality. We saw strong broad-based new product rollouts with double-digit growth in EWS and international, and a VI of 9% in USIS, which was up 100 basis points sequentially from the second quarter. We expect our NPI revenue to grow, revenue growth to remain strong, and are increasing our 2024 Vitality Index guidance to 11%, up 100 basis points from our prior framework for 2024, as we further leverage our new EFX cloud capabilities and EFX.AI to drive new products into the marketplace. Turning to slide five, workforce solutions revenue was up about 7.5% and slightly below our July guidance, principally due to lower than expected employer services revenue. Non-mortgage verification services revenue, again, delivered very strong 19% growth, which was in line with our expectations. Government had another outstanding quarter with very strong 29% revenue growth from continued penetration in their large $5 billion government TAM. Government revenue grew sequentially from strong growth in state penetration and insights incarceration data solutions. We expect continued strong sequential government revenue growth again in the fourth quarter. Growth rates in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to show strong double-digit performance, but will be lower than third quarter levels, principally due to comping against very strong growth we saw last year. We expect our government vertical to continue to deliver very strong double digit growth in the future, and outgrow both Equifax and EWS. Talent Solutions revenue was up a strong 9% in the quarter. Talent Solutions continues to benefit from their new total verified data hub, which includes trended employment data, as well as insights incarceration, education, and licensing and credentialing data. Based on data through August, EWS Talent Solutions outperformed the BLS white collar hiring markets by approximately 18 percentage points from additions of records, rollouts of new products, and penetration into the talent vertical during the quarter. We did see somewhat weaker volumes late in September, which we have assumed will continue and is expected to impact talent revenue growth in the fourth quarter. EWS mortgage revenue was up 4% in the quarter and slightly better than our July guidance. Twin inquiries in the third quarter were down about 5.5% and slightly better than our July guidance. Total EWS mortgage revenue outperformed twin inquiries by about 9.5% and again up over 300 basis points sequentially from strong record growth during the quarter. We expect strong growth in twin records to benefit mortgage and our other EWS verticals again in the fourth quarter. EWS consumer lending revenue was up 16% from strong double-digit growth in P-loans and high single-digit growth in debt management and auto. Employer services revenue was down 19% in the quarter and weaker than we expected. Compared to last year, employer declined principally from lower ERC revenues and, to a lesser extent, lower I-9 and onboarding revenues as the slower white-collar hiring we saw in late September impacting Talent Solutions also impacted our onboarding business. There was also some one-time post-COVID-related project revenue that benefited onboarding in the third quarter of last year. Third quarter I-9 in onboarding revenue was consistent with the first and second quarters, and we expect fourth quarter employer revenue to be down mid-single digits as the ERC comparisons mitigate. Workforce Solutions adjusted EBITDA margins were 51.6%, and we're slightly above our expectations and continue to be very strong, reflecting strong verifier revenue growth and continued strong cost controls. Turning to slide six, the EWS government team continued their very strong performance in the quarter with revenue up 29%. The governance team continued to focus on penetration of our unique VOI and VOE solutions for social services at both the federal level and across the state agencies. In the quarter, the EWS government team signed an extension to their SSA redetermination contract to provide income and employment data for individuals applying for or currently receiving Social Security disability income and supplemental security income benefits with a potential contract value of about $500 million over the next five years. EWS services support program integrity for the SSA as well as reducing the administrative burden for consumers seeking these important services. Chad and the government team are on offense, driving penetration in the big $5 billion government TAM. Turning to slide seven, EWS had another outstanding quarter of new record additions. A few weeks ago, we announced a new strategic partnership with Workday to provide verification services to Workday's large customer base. Later in the fourth quarter, we'll begin rolling out the free value-added EWS income and employment verification services to Workday's US customers and expect to onboard a sizable number of new records through 2025 from this new strategic relationship. Also in the quarter, we signed agreements with five additional new strategic partners that will contribute over 5 million records collectively to the twin database in the future. Through September, EWS has executed 12 strategic partnerships during 2024 and since the beginning of 2021, EWS has completed 45 strategic partnership agreements. We expect these five new partnerships signed during the quarter to come online and begin generating revenue late in the fourth quarter and substantially in the early parts of 2025. In the third quarter, EWS added 2 million active records to the twin database, ending the quarter with 182 million active records, up a strong 12% on 134 million unique individuals. EWS now has 3.8 million companies contributing income and employment records to the twin database every pay period, a very strong 40% CAGR since 2020. Total records are now over 700 million and up 11% in the quarter, supporting our trended or historical solutions with about half of verifier revenue from products including historical records. At 134 million unique active records, we have plenty of room to grow the twin database towards the TAM of 225 million income producing Americans. Turning to slide eight, USIS achieved a major milestone in the third quarter, completing the migration to the new Equifax data cloud fabric of both of the US consumer credit and our cell phone utility databases. This big milestone makes US consumer credit telco and utilities data fully available across our new data fabric for use in advanced AI-based solutions, to enhance our identity and fraud solutions, and to accelerate our only Equifax solutions, leveraging both EWS and USIS data assets. It also allows our US commercial product and technology teams to fully shift their focus to delivering these new advanced Equifax solutions to customers that will drive new product rollouts and top-line growth for Equifax. USIS revenue is up 12% in the quarter and well above the July guidance of up 8.5%. and their long-term revenue growth framework of 6% to 8%, despite the continuation of some weakness in the FI and auto end markets. This was driven by both strong performance in non-mortgage revenue, as well as stronger mortgage revenue reflecting the slight increase in mortgage activity we saw in late September. Total non-mortgage revenue was up 5% in the quarter and was also well above our July guidance of over 2% growth for USIS. We saw strong double-digit growth in consumer solutions and financial marketing services, which were offset by a less than 1% decline in USIS B2B online revenue from softer consumer and end market demand, which importantly was up about 300 basis points sequentially. USIS B2B online saw double-digit growth in insurance and commercial, high single-digit growth in telco, and low to mid single-digit revenue growth in banking and auto, offset by declines in third-party bureau sales and identity and fraud. We expect third-party bureau sales to be about flat in the fourth quarter as we lap the weakness that started in late 2023. Identity and fraud revenue was also down and weaker than our expectations, principally due to weakness in chargeback management volumes. Payment and transactional identity revenue grew in the quarter from penetration in large strategic accounts, Identity and Fraud is starting to launch their new Count360 solutions, platform, and products, which will help strengthen growth in 2025 as these solutions take hold in the marketplace. Financial Marketing Services, our B2B offline business, was up a very strong 14% in the quarter, reflecting substantial new wins in customer expansion across banking services and payments verticals, as well as continued strong growth in prescreen marketing and our unique IXI wealth data. USIS Consumer Solutions D2C business had another very strong quarter, up 17%, from strong double-digit growth in our consumer direct channel and from strong customer acquisition trends. We expect fourth quarter revenue to grow mid-single digits as we start comping against very strong D2C growth last year. USIS mortgage revenue was up a very strong 36% and better than our July guidance. Mortgage credit inquiries were up 1%. and we're also better than our July guidance of down 7%, principally due to the slight increase in mortgage activity that we saw in late September. This was the first quarter of mortgage credit inquiry growth since the first quarter of 2021, which is a big milestone and reinforces for us that the mortgage market is clearly bottomed and poised for recovery in the future. Consistent with the first half, the strong pricing environment, along with the strength in our new mortgage prequal products, also drove the very strong mortgage revenue growth. At $137 million, mortgage revenue was just under 30% of total USIS revenue in the quarter. USIS adjusted EBIT job margins were 33.9% in the quarter, up 70 basis points sequentially, and in line with our expectations from higher than expected revenue growth offset by higher technology costs to complete cloud customer migration activities. With the USIS consumer and our cell phone utility and data cloud transformations complete, Todd and the USIS team are clearly focused on offense and growth. Turning to slide nine, international revenue was up a very strong 18% in constant currency and up a strong 12% in organic constant currency, excluding the impact of BVS due to continued very strong growth in Latin America and Europe. Europe local currency revenue was up a very strong 9% in the quarter with continued strong 7% growth in our credit and data businesses and 12% growth in our debt management business. Latin America local currency revenue was up 58% principally due to the acquisition of Boa Vista with very strong organic growth of 31% led by 28% vitality index from new products in the region during the quarter. And as a reminder, we closed the BVS acquisition in August last year. Canada delivered 1% growth in the quarter, which was below our expectations from a softer economy. I previously mentioned that Canada completed their consumer and commercial credit exchange customer migrations to data fabric a few weeks ago. And similar to the U.S., we expect to see accelerating NPI and revenue growth going forward from the Canadian team. Asia-Pacific revenue returned to growth up 2% as expected. International adjusted EBITDA margins of 27.7% were up 210 basis points sequentially from strong revenue growth and good cost execution. Turning to slide 10, we continue to make very strong progress driving innovation with 30 new products launched in the quarter that delivered a 13% vitality from broad-based performances across all of our business units. EWS had very strong third quarter with vitality index of 16%, expanding solutions in the government vertical as well as incorporating incarceration and education data into new talent solutions products. USIS saw continued sequential improvement with a vitality index of 9%, up 100 basis points sequentially from the second quarter. We expect USIS to continue to show strong vitality improvement from the cloud completion as they leverage our new cloud native infrastructure for innovation and new products, as well as free up their product and technology resources that previously were working on cloud transformation in key verticals such as identity and fraud, commercial, and our new mortgage pre-qual products. International also had strong 11% vitality in the quarter with a strong focus on identity and fraud solutions. We expect strong double digit vitality in the fourth quarter leveraging our Equifax cloud capability to drive new product rollouts, and we're raising our full year vitality index guidance from 10% to about 11%, reflecting a strong innovation performance across all our businesses so far in 2024. AI and ML are changing the way we develop our new products and our single data fabric and build higher performing models, scores, and products for our customers. We're accelerating the pace at which we are developing new EFX models and scores using our advanced AI and ML capabilities in areas such as identity and fraud and consumer loan affordability that will drive higher performance and predictability. In the quarter, 100% of our new models and scores were built using Equifax AI and machine learning, which is up from about 89% last quarter and ahead of our 2024 goal of 80% and last year's 70%. We're clearly on offense deploying our proprietary EFX AI capabilities that will drive higher performing model scores and products for our customers. Now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our third quarter financial results and to provide our fourth quarter framework. Our fourth quarter guidance builds on our strong third quarter performance from new products, penetration, record growth, and pricing. Thanks, Mark. Turning to slide 11. As Mark discussed, we started to see an improvement in the run rate of USIS credit inquiries in late September as mortgage rates declined to just over 6%. We believe the improvement principally reflected higher refinance activity in late September. New home purchase activity does not appear to have increased meaningfully at this point, likely reflecting continued low home inventory levels, home prices at near all time highs and respective home buyers waiting for further mortgage rate reductions. As a reminder, the normal mix of mortgage originations defined as the average over the 2015 to 2019 period is about 55% purchase and 45% refinance. In the first two weeks of October, we have seen mortgage inquiry volumes for both credit and twin slow versus September. as mortgage rates have increased to above 6.5%. The run rate over the last two weeks of both credit and twin inquiries is relatively consistent with the expectations we had when we provided guidance in July. Consistent with our practice in 2024 and the last several years, our guidance for credit inquiries is based on our current run rates over the last two to four weeks, modified to reflect normal seasonal patterns. This effectively assumes market conditions, will continue for the quarter. Our fourth quarter guidance reflects mortgage credit inquiries to be up about 9% versus 1423 and down 16% sequentially. Calendar year 24 mortgage credit inquiries are expected to be down about 7%. For the fourth quarter, we expect USIS mortgage revenue to be up over 40% and much stronger than the underlying mortgage market, reflecting both strong performance and mortgage prequal products as well as vendor pricing actions. Our guidance reflects twin inquiries in the fourth quarter to be up about 6% versus 4Q23 and down about 12% sequentially. For the full year, twin inquiries are expected to be down about 11%. We expect EWS mortgage revenue to be up over 16% in the fourth quarter and much stronger than the underlying twin inquiries, again, principally reflecting strong record growth in 2024, as well as annual mortgage pricing that occurs early in the first quarter each year. As a reminder, the fourth quarter is historically seasonally the lowest quarter of the year for both credit and twin inquiries. For perspective, as we look to 2025, carrying these current run rates with normal seasonality through 25, mortgage credit inquiries would grow versus 2024, up just over 5% for the year, and also just over 5% in the first quarter of 2025. Slide 12 provides the details of our 4Q24 guidance. In 4Q24, we expect total Equifax revenue to be between $1.438 and $1.458 billion, up about 9% at the midpoint. Organic constant dollar revenue growth at the midpoint is about 10%, and at the high end of our long-term financial framework. At the midpoint, mortgage revenue is expected to be up almost 30%, and non-mortgage constant dollar revenue up over 7%. Equifax 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be about 35.5% at the midpoint of our guidance. The sequential increase in EBITDA margins reflects revenue growth and cost management across Equifax. including the decommissioning of USIS legacy consumer and telco and utility systems and Canada legacy consumer and commercial systems. This is our first ever quarter with EBITDA over $500 million. This would be a very strong performance. Adjusted EPS in 4Q24 is expected to be $2.08 to $2.18 per share, up 18% versus 4Q23 at the midpoint. The midpoint of our fourth quarter revenue guidance is about $15 million below the levels implied by the guidance we provided in July. The primary driver is lower revenue in EWS and the employer business driven by lower revenue in onboarding as well as ERC. And this is consistent with the factors that impacted the third quarter and also the slower U.S. hiring Mark referenced earlier that is impacting both onboarding and talent solutions. We believe we are centered at the midpoint of our guidance. Business unit performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be as follows. Workforce solutions revenue growth is expected to be up about 10%. Non-mortgage revenue should be up about 8% year to year. Verifier non-mortgage revenue growth will continue to show strong double-digit growth, although below the levels we saw in the third quarter. Verifier non-mortgage growth will again be driven by strong growth in government and talent. Government revenue growth is expected to grow sequentially and year-to-year. However, year-to-year growth will be below the levels we have seen year-to-date in 2024 as we lap very strong 4Q23 revenue growth in government. Both verifier mortgage and non-mortgage revenue growth should benefit from the continued strong growth in twin records we are seeing throughout 2024. EWS adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be up slightly from the third quarter at about 52%. USIS revenue is expected to be up over 10% year-to-year. Non-mortgage revenue should be up about 3% year-to-year, slightly lower than the third quarter, principally due to lower growth in USIS D2C as they begin to lap periods of strong growth that started in 4Q23, and financial marketing services, which is expected to be about flat year to year. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be over 38%, up very strong sequentially as USIS decommissions legacy consumer and telco and utility systems. International revenue is expected to be up over 9% in constant currency. EBITDA margins are expected to be over 32%, up very strong sequentially reflecting both revenue growth and good cost controls. Slide 13 provides the specifics of our 2024 full-year guidance. Constant currency revenue growth is expected to be about 10%, with organic constant currency growth of 8% within our 7% to 10% long-term organic growth framework. Total mortgage revenue is expected to grow about 12.5%, despite the 7% decline in U.S. mortgage credit inquiries. Non-mortgage constant dollar revenue is expected to grow almost 10% with organic growth of over 7% led by very strong non-mortgage growth in our workforce solutions verification services business and in international. This is within our long-term framework. FX is about 180 basis points negative to revenue growth. Adjusted EPS is expected to be 730 per share and adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be 32.4%. Adjusted EPS and EBITDA are both expected to grow 9% in 2024, all at the midpoint of our guidance. Capital expenditures in the third quarter are $123 million, down $8 million sequentially. We expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to be just over $105 million as USIS has completed customer migrations to the U.S. consumer data fabric, and Canada has completed customer migrations to their consumer and commercial data fabric. Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be about $485 million, which is a year-to-year reduction of about $100 million. As we accelerate our cloud migrations, we are seeing increasing levels of depreciation and amortization. In 2024, DNA excluding acquisition amortization is expected to be about $410 million, up about $50 million versus 2023. In 2025, we expect DNA to increase slightly above the $50 million increase we saw in 2024. As of the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio was 2.8 times, and we expect to further reduce leverage in the fourth quarter. We believe this leverage is nicely within the levels required for our current BBB-BAA2 credit ratings. Turning to slide 14, And as we discussed in July, the U.S. mortgage market is on the order of 50% below its historic average inquiry levels. As the mortgage market recovers towards historic norms, that represents over $1 billion of annual revenue opportunity for Equifax in 2025 and beyond at current product pricing, twin records contracted, and products. We expect this opportunity to increase as we enter 2025 from pricing actions twin records and new products. At current mortgage gross margins, this over $1 billion of incremental mortgage revenue would deliver on the order of $700 million of EBITDA and $4 per share that we would expect to move into our P&L as the mortgage market returns to normal levels in 2025 and beyond. Now I'd like to turn it back over to Mark. Thanks, John. Turning to slide 15. An important part of our long-term financial framework is delivering strong free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders. We're adding a new cash conversion goal to our long-term framework of 95% or greater with cash conversion defined as free cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income. During the cloud technology transformation over the last four years, we saw elevated cloud capital expenditures, which impacted our free cash flow and cash conversion. Our cash conversion ratio is expected to improve significantly in 2024 to about 80% as we reduce CapEx and drive higher relative levels of free cash flow. We expect our free cash flow to accelerate in 2025 post our cloud investments as CapEx reduces to 6% to 7% of revenue, supporting cash conversion of over 95% off strong margin expansion and growth in net income from our underlying operating leverage and cloud cost savings. This strong cash generation positions Equifax to continue to invest in growth with CapEx and Bolton M&A and begin returning excess free cash flow to shareholders from dividend growth and share repurchases in 2025 and beyond. It's energizing to be approaching this important milestone for our investors as we complete the new Equifax cloud. Turning to slide 16, we are entering the next chapter of the new Equifax as we pivot from building the new Equifax cloud to leveraging our new cloud capabilities to drive our top and bottom line. We are convinced that our new Equifax cloud differentiated data assets and our new single data fabric leveraging Equifax.ai and machine learning and market-leading businesses will deliver higher revenue growth, expanded margins, and accelerating free cash flow. In the middle of slide 16, we've added the new cash conversion metric to our long-term growth framework. And our long-term growth framework, as you know, is made up of strong revenue growth of 7% to 10%, and is led by very strong 13% to 15% EWS revenue growth. EWS is clearly our largest and fastest-growing business, led by strong double-digit non-mortgage verification services revenue growth from our government and talent solutions verticals. As a part of our long-term financial framework, we expect to add one to two points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A aligned around strengthening the core of Equifax. Our bolt-on M&A strategy will continue to be focused on strengthening workforce solutions, adding differentiated data assets across Equifax, and growing in the big $20 billion identity and fraud space. As John covered a few minutes ago, the pace of mortgage market recovery will add to our revenue growth as the market returns to normal 2015 to 2019 levels in 2025 and beyond. The mortgage market recovery will also drive our margins and free cash flow from the very high incremental margins from this incremental revenue that we expect to come into Equifax's P&L in 2025 and beyond. We expect operating leverage off our strong 8% to 12% revenue growth to generate 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion and very strong cash conversion of 95% and above. As margins improve, CapEx declines to 6% to 7% of revenue with the completion of the Equifax cloud transformation and leverage continues to progress towards two and a half turns by year end, we expect our free cash flow to accelerate and that will enable us to start returning cash to shareholders in 2025 and beyond through growing the dividend in a multi-year share buyback program. We are energized to be pivoting from building the Equifax cloud over the past four years to leveraging our new industry-leading cloud and EFX.AI capabilities to drive revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow. Wrapping up on slide 17, Equifax delivered another strong quarter with 11% constant dollar revenue growth, which was at the upper end of our 8% to 12% long-term revenue growth framework, reflecting the power and breadth of the Equifax business model, strong execution against our EFX 2026 strategic priorities, the resiliency of the U.S. consumer, and the strength of our customers. Our very strong 19% EWS non-mortgage verifier revenue growth, 12% EWS active record growth, strong 13% broad-based vitality index, give us momentum as we enter the fourth quarter and move towards 2025. And as we talked earlier, we took another big step in the quarter towards cloud completion with 80% of our revenue now in the Equifax cloud, which will enhance our competitiveness, drive innovation and new product development. Entering 2025 with 90% of Equifax revenue in the new Equifax cloud is a really big milestone. So the team can move towards fully focusing on innovation, new products powered by efx.ai, customers, and growth. I'm energized now more than ever about the future of the new Equifax that will deliver strong 8% to 12% revenue growth, 50 basis points of margin expansion, lower capital intensity, and expanding free cash flow to invest in Equifax and add both on M&A, and in the future, growing our dividend and positioning to start a multi-year stock buyback program in 2025 and beyond. And with that, operator, let me open it up for questions.
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