Enbridge Inc

Good morning and welcome to the Enbridge fourth quarter and year-end 2023 financial results conference call. My name is Rebecca Morley and I'm the Vice President of the Investor Relations Team. Joining me this morning are Greg Ebel, President and CEO, Pat Murray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and the heads of each of our business units, Colin Grending, Liquids Pipelines, Cynthia Hansen, Gas Transmission and Midstream, Michelle Herrodance, Gas Distribution and Storage, and Matthew Ackman, Renewable Power. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for the investment community. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. As per usual, this call is being webcast and I encourage those listening on the phone to follow along with the supporting slides. We'll try to keep the call to roughly one hour, and in order to answer as many questions as possible, we will be limiting the questions to one plus a single follow-up if necessary. We'll be prioritizing questions from the investment community, so if you're a member of the media, please direct your inquiries to our communications team, who will be happy to respond. As always, our investor relations team will be available following the call for any follow-up questions. On to slide two, where I'll remind you that we'll be referring to forward-looking information on today's presentation and Q&A. By its nature, this information contains forecast assumptions and expectations about future outcomes, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties outlined here and discussed more fully in our public disclosure filing. will also be referring to non-GAAP measures summarized below. And with that, I'll turn it over to Greg Ebel.

Well, thanks very much, Rebecca, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us again. I'm pleased to be here today to recap a record fourth quarter and 2023 results. Throughout the year, the Enbridge team worked hard to execute on our strategic priorities and ensure Enbridge remains the first choice for energy delivery in North America and beyond. These efforts further enhanced our long-term value proposition, which we'll talk about today, along with providing you an update on our businesses. Pat will then walk you through our financial performance, our capital allocation priorities, and our outlook. And as always, the Enbridge team will be available to answer any questions you may have at the end of the presentation. You know, folks, I'm really proud of the Enbridge team for all its achievements in 2023. We met our financial guidance for the 18th straight year and once again exceeded the midpoint for both EBITDA and DCF per share, demonstrating the low-risk, predictable nature of our business. Sustainably returning capital to shareholders remains a key priority, and our investors are benefiting from that as we increased our dividend by 3.1% this year, marking our 29th consecutive annual increase. Our debt to EBITDA, including the pre-funding, was 4.1 times, leaving ample balance sheet room in preparation for the closing of the U.S. gas utility acquisitions in 2024. In addition to the outstanding financial performance, we had an equally impressive year operationally. Enbridge employees matched our best-ever company safety performance. We had high utilization rates across our systems and set record throughputs on the mainline, Grey Oak, and at our Ingleside export facility. We also concluded open seasons on Flanagan South, Southern Lights, and Algonquin Gas Pipeline, and are about to initiate an open season for the expanded capacity on Grey Oak Pipeline, which we expect to be very positively received. On the execution front, we filed with unanimous customer approval the mainline tolling agreement with the Canadian Energy Regulator and expect approval in the coming months. The settlement we filed is consistent with the terms we outlined for you in May and is a win-win-win for the customers, for industry, and for Enbridge, and I'll touch on that more later in the presentation. The sale of our interest in Alliance and Oxable continues our track record of recycling capital at the attractive multiples and put us in a position where we have largely completed the funding for our utility acquisitions. I'm extremely proud of the organic growth projects we announced in 2023 securing an additional 10 billion to our growth backlog, which will help to drive low risk returns to shareholders for years to come. We announced the acquisition of three gas utilities, which will create the largest integrated gas utility in North America, as well as several accretive tuck-in acquisitions in other business units. These transactions will enhance our service offering to customers and blend and extend our growth for years to come. Lastly, we placed over $2 billion of growth capital into service, primarily through our GTM modernization and utility growth capital programs. Of course, sustainability continues to be a key component of our license to operate. Last May, we published our 22nd annual sustainability report, which highlights our industry-leading performance on environmental, social and governance issues, as well as progress on our Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan. Today, I'm pleased to report that we've already met 10 of those commitments with continued efforts on the remaining elements. When it comes to emission reductions, our approach continues to be leading edge, not bleeding edge, and our recent RNG investments, as well as the Ingleside Blue Ammonia Project we're partnering with Yaron, are strategically aligned with this philosophy. Before I move on to the business, I want to take a moment to highlight our record financial performance. 2023 EBITDA is up 6% from last year, primarily due to the strong performance from our liquids business unit. DCF per share is up 1%, even after absorbing the dilution impact from the upfront $4.6 billion equity issuance in September to finance the utility acquisitions. And our balance sheet is well positioned ahead of the closings of the gas utilities at 4.1 times debt to EBITDA. Altogether, another excellent year of financial performance ahead of the midpoint of our guidance and in line with our multi-year outlook. Pat will walk you through the main drivers of the strong fourth quarter shortly. As we reflect on 2023, I want to remind everyone why our business is a first choice investment opportunity. Our assets generate strong, reliable and growing cash flows that are underpinned by low risk commercial frameworks and a stable balance sheet. We consistently and sustainably return capital to shareholders and late last year announced our 29th consecutive annual dividend increase. 2023 was a hallmark year for growth at Enbridge with approximately $23 billion of announced acquisitions and $10 billion of new projects adding both greater visibility and duration to our growth outlook and consistent with our vision we continue to develop Enbridge's lower carbon strategy benefiting the enterprise and supporting an appropriately paced global energy transition Enbridge is operating from a position of strength and its predictable cash flow growth low business risk and strong total return profile makes it a first choice investment opportunity so let's take a minute and revisit the low risk nature of Enbridge's businesses. As I mentioned earlier, 2023 marked the 18th consecutive year of meeting our financial guidance. And as indicated up front, we achieved this without needing to adjust the bought deal equity issuance from our financial results. 2023 showcased the predictability of our business amid continued geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates. This is as a result of the 98% of Enbridge's earnings being generated from either cost of service or take or pay contract assets. Our debt portfolio is less than 10% exposed to floating rate volatility. Our customer base is over 95% investment grade and 80% of our EBITDA is earned from assets with protection against inflation. We're rated BBB plus by all rating agencies and remain committed to our long held leverage target of four and a half times to five times. Our business risk is sector leading amongst our midstream peers, and the gas utilities acquisition will only enhance that. Now, let's spend a few minutes on the key accomplishments of each of the business units, and we'll start with liquids. Liquids pipeline really delivered record utilization once again in 2023. The mainline transported over 3.2 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter, and averaged 3.1 million barrels per day for the full year. These numbers are a new all-time high and result from our team's continuous efforts to optimize our pipeline network. Growing production out of the Permian Basin and increased export demand continues to draw record crude oil volumes through our integrated gray oak pipeline and of course Ingleside Export Terminal. We also concluded an oversubscribed binding open season on Southern Lights, which will lock up 165,000 barrels per day of existing capacity that was coming up for renewal in 2025. We filed our mainline tolling settlement with the Canadian Energy Regulator in December and expect an expedited review process. Our customers will receive the competitive and responsive service they're accustomed to. Enbridge will earn attractive risk-adjusted returns and the Main Line will continue to feed North American and global markets with a long-term source of safe, secure, and affordable energy. When approved, the Main Line will continue to earn an attractive risk-adjusted return on equity between 11% and 14.5%. The agreement also includes customer support for Line 5 capital expenditures, ensuring that this critical piece of infrastructure remains operational and Enbridge can continue to deliver reliable and affordable energy to Michigan, Ohio, and Eastern Canada. The settlement was unanimously approved by the representative shipper group, and we're grateful for the support from our customers. Downstream of the main line, we successfully concluded the 110,000 barrel per day open season on Flanagan South pipeline. This secures full path transportation from Western Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, ensuring the mainline remains well utilized. Earlier in 2023, we sanctioned the initial phase of the Enbridge-Houston oil terminal. This greenfield project, located at the terminus of the Seaway Pipeline, will provide shippers with 2.7 million barrels of premier storage that is accessible by the Houston refineries. In the Permian region, we're still planning to initiate an open season for the Grey Oak Pipeline in the coming months, that will offer full path export service from the Permian Basin all the way to our Ingleside docks. And on the low carbon front, we're progressing the feed engineering for a blue ammonia production facility at Ingleside. This potential investment highlights the value of existing and diversified infrastructure to the energy transition. The proposed facility will source feed gas from our Texas Eastern gas pipeline, and the associated emissions will be sequestered in a nearby carbon storage facility through our partnership with Oxy, all of which further underlines the value enhancement opportunities our integrated liquids, natural gas, and lower carbon platform offers customers and investors. Finally, we continue to advance the technical evaluation work for the planned carbon capture utilization and storage hub in the Wapamin area. So let's move on to gas transmission. Starting in Canada, we closed the acquisition of Aitkin Creek Gas Storage, a 77 BCF working capacity facility in British Columbia, which is uniquely positioned to support local demand and upcoming Canadian LNG exports. And in December, we sold our interest in Alliance and Oxable for proceeds of $3.1 billion, continuing our track record of surfacing value for shareholders through ongoing capital recycling. This transaction reduces our commodity price exposure, and proceeds help to finance the upcoming utility acquisitions. We've also refined our engineering estimates for the 300 million cubic feet per day expansion of the T-South gas pipeline in British Columbia. The total project is estimated to cost $4 billion, up from $3.6 billion originally. The increased costs are based on recent Class IV estimates, which includes extensive engineering analysis, community consultation, and also includes lessons learned from recently completed projects in the region. Of course, before proceeding, we will ensure that the full investment and return is recoverable through our cost of service framework on the West Coast Pipeline. In the US, we continue to extend our LNG service offering as we progress the Rio Bravo Pipeline and the Venice Extension Pipeline which we expect to place into service later this year. We've concluded an open season on the Algonquin pipeline system for additional gas delivery to New England, and we're pleased with the results and are currently evaluating potential options to satisfy our customers' needs. In March, we acquired Tres Palacios, which adds 35 BCF of working gas storage and enhances our customer service offering in the area. This facility is a key piece of infrastructure that serves local gas fire power generation, LNG exports, and pipeline capacity to Mexico. Finally, we announced the acquisition of several high-quality operating landfill waste to RNG assets in Texas and Arkansas from Morrow Renewables. These investments align with Enbridge's utility-like cash flow framework and are underpinned by long-term off-take contracts. The landfills we acquired are expected to double in size by 2040 with minimal capital investment, which will supplement our growth for years to come. The moral renewables investment aligns well with our corporate strategy and supports our energy transition and growth expectations. Turning to gas distribution and storage, Enbridge Gas had a strong year. We added 46,000 new customers, which was ahead of expectations. We invested 1.2 billion modernizing and expanding the distribution network during 23 to support the growing needs for reliable and affordable energy in the province. In December, the Ontario Energy Board issued its decision on our rebasing application for 2024. And overall, we're not pleased with the outcome as it doesn't align with the provincial government's policy on the future of natural gas within Ontario, nor the affordability and reliability of gas for our residential, and industrial customers. While the decision itself isn't material to Enbridge's 24 guidance, we filed a notice of appeal with the divisional court and a notice of motion with the OEB regarding several aspects of the decision that we believe are inconsistent and amount to an error in law. In the meantime, we will continue to focus on delivering safe and reliable energy for our customers in Ontario. Now moving to the gas utility acquisitions in the U.S., We continue to be very excited about the transaction, including the fact that it was executed at a historically attractive valuation of 1.3 times the forward rate base. The assets all operated supportive and transparent jurisdictions and will add low risk regulated earnings and quick cycle rate based investment opportunities to our backlog. As you can see on the slide, we've pre-funded approximately 85% of the aggregate purchase price since we announced the transaction in September last year, and all three are on track to close in 2024. So with that, let's jump into the renewables. Our scale and diversification and investing approach to renewables allows us to continue to find attractive opportunities, even as returns compress for many across the sector. In Germany, we acquired additional interest in the Hohe See and Albatross offshore wind farms. These are high-quality operating assets that we know well, and the transaction is immediately accretive to our DCF. In France, we continue to approach the commercial operation dates for both FECAMP and Provence Grand Large in early 2024, and Calvados is scheduled to come into service in 2025. Enbridge was also awarded the right to develop a one-gigawatt offshore wind farm in Normandy. which we expect could enter service around 2030. We'll be developing that wind farm with EDF, continuing a partnership of successful developments in the renewable space. And then last November, we extended the partnership onshore in North America, where we jointly are constructing and operating the 577 megawatt Fox Squirrel solar facility in Ohio. The initial phase of this project generates about 150 megawatts and was placed into service in December 2023. Our portfolio of late stage onshore development projects continues to approach the construction ready phase with expected 2025 in-service dates. And finally, we also placed three solar self-power projects into service during the year, adding some 30 megawatts of capacity and reducing our mainline emissions footprint. So now I'll pass it off to Pat to walk through our financial results.

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to present a record quarter and full year of financial results here at Enbridge. And as Greg mentioned earlier, we exceeded the midpoint of our 2023 EBITDA and DCF per share guidance, representing our 18th straight year of achieving or beating our outlook. Year over year, fourth quarter EBITDA was up over 5%, and DCF is up 3%. Our DCF per share is down 2%, including the dilution related to the de-risking of the financing plan for the gas utility acquisition. These quarterly results cap off a fantastic year for Enbridge and are underpinned by a high utilization across all our systems. In liquids, our mainline transported a record 3.2 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. Our mid-continent and Gulf Coast assets also delivered strong operational results, with Ingleside and Grey Oak setting new quarterly volume records. These record volumes were partially offset by the lower mainline toll which took place on July 1st. Gas transmission is down marginally over the quarter due to the timing of revenue recognition related to the Texas Eastern case in the fourth quarter of last year. EGI continues to benefit from higher distribution rates from EGI's incentive rate mechanism despite a mild winter negatively impacting fourth quarter results by about $30 million compared to normal conditions. Our renewable business improved during the quarter primarily from the increased interest in our German offshore wind assets, which closed in early November. Energy services results improved compared to the same quarter last year due to the expiry of transportation commitments, as we have noted in prior quarters, and less pronounced backwardation in commodity markets. Realized foreign exchange head losses were lower in the fourth quarter as our hedge rate was right around the spot rate of 135. Below the line in DCF per share, and as expected, higher interest expense, the effect of the bought deal I mentioned earlier, and lower distributions and excess of earnings from our equity investments partially offset the higher EBITDA and operations this quarter. With that, let's quickly review the year ahead. I'm pleased to reaffirm Enbridge's 2024 EBITDA guidance range of $16.6 billion to $17.2 billion and DCF per share guidance of $540 to $580 per share. This represents 4% EBITDA growth versus the 2023 guidance midpoint. As a reminder, our 2024 guidance is set on the base business, excluding the EBITDA, CAPEX, and associated financing impact of the US gas utilities expected to close throughout this year. The reason we chose to issue guidance excluding the acquisition is that we want to showcase the strength of our base business and how it is performing relative to the growth outlook we shared our investor day last March. There's some uncertainty around the timing of the close for the LDCs, but we do expect some level of contribution from all three utilities this year, and I'll discuss that on the next slide. There are a few key assumptions underpinning our 2024 guidance. Our 2024 mainline volume forecast is approximately 3 million barrels per day. This estimate was struck using TMX's public and service date estimate when we released guidance. For reference, apportionment on the mainline rose throughout the fourth quarter, and our December throughput averaged 3.26 million barrels per day. Today, we have more conviction than ever that the mainline will continue to be very well utilized for years to come. We also included the sale of our interest in Lionshawks Sable in the guidance we provided in November. As is practiced at Enbridge, we've minimized our foreign exchange and interest rate exposure for the upcoming year. The US dollar denominated DCF is almost entirely hedged at the 135 and less than 10% of our total debt portfolio exposed to interest rates volatility in 2024. Now let's look briefly at the EBIT implications from the expected closing of the gas utilities. We continue to expect staggered closes of the utilities throughout the year. Each will provide incremental contributions above our base business guidance. Given that the timeline for regulatory approvals are fluid, we've omitted the associated incremental contributions from our guidance. That being said, if the utilities close on schedule, our overall EBITDA could exceed the upper band of the guidance range, while per share metrics in 2024 will be impacted by the full year of share dilution. Let's turn over to our secured growth outlook. Our secured growth program sits at $24 billion. New to the table this quarter is the addition of the Fox Squirrel Solar Phase 2 and the incremental capital for T-South Sunrise expansion, as well as another year of utility growth and GTM modernization capital. In 2023, we added an additional $10 billion of new secured capital to our backlog, adding visibility and duration to our multi-year growth outlook, which I look forward to discussing more at Enbridge Day in March. We placed over $2 billion of organic capital into service, primarily from our utility growth program in Ontario and our GTM modernization program. With that, let's revisit Enbridge's capital allocation priorities before I turn the presentation back to Greg to wrap things up. Our approach to capital allocation is focused on maximizing shareholders' returns. We're excited by all the opportunities ahead of us, but we're going to grow in a disciplined manner while sticking to our leverage and payout targets. Enbridge is fully committed to our leverage guardrails of four and a half to five times debt to EBITDA, and will continue to operate within this range post the utility acquisitions. With the announced sale of Alliance Knoxable in 2023, we continue our track record of successfully high-grading our capital and will continue to look for opportunities to recycle assets at attractive multiples. In November, we announced a 3.1% increase to the Enbridge dividend, our 29th consecutive annual increase. Our long-held dividend payout policy is 60% to 70% of DCF, and will continue to grow the dividend up to our medium-term DCF per share growth. And with that, I'll turn it back to you, Greg.

Well, thanks very much, Pat. You know, as I reflect on my first year leading the team here at Enbridge, who are tasked with delivering on behalf of our investors, I'm pretty pleased with how 2023 came in and extremely excited about 2024 and beyond. The financial results from the businesses reached record levels, and the same was true of the operational results right across our business units. Whether it was continuing to execute on our organic growth projects, picking up tuck-in assets across our liquids, gas pipeline, and renewable systems, or reaching value-enhancing regulatory outcomes like the mainline toll settlement that serve our customers and investors, the team really delivered in 2023 and set up the company for continued long-term growth. We also continue to deliver record operational and safety results, which further underlines Enbridge's reputation as the first choice provider of energy logistics for all of our stakeholders. And equally important, we further diversified and extended our geographic reach and opportunity set in the natural gas utility business, with a significant acquisition of three great gas utilities in growth regions of the U.S. which will extend our growth aspirations through the decade. So a great job by the team on behalf of our investors and customers. I'm less pleased, of course, with the stock performance in 2023, yet very excited about its future. With growing earnings and dividends underpinned by not one, not two, but three of the top position businesses of their kind in North America, liquids pipelines, gas transmission, and gas distribution, and a fourth business, renewables, very prudently becoming a top player, we expect to deliver excellent returns for investors. As a balanced view of energy transition and the key elements of that become increasingly clear to investors and policymakers alike, Enbridge's diversified and balanced portfolio looks increasingly like the first choice for investors. And while I'm not predicting interest rates, the inevitable easing of monetary policy will bring dividend yields on utility like stocks such as Enbridge back into a more typical range relative to government bonds. With our prudent capital allocation actions, strong commitment to the balance sheet, low risk in growing earnings and dividends, we will deliver long-term value for investors and serve our various stakeholders along the way with excellence. Pat and I, along with our four business unit leaders, look forward to discussing our continued growth opportunities and this investment thesis at our upcoming Investor Day in New York on March 6th. Hope to see you there, and now let's open the lines for your questions.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Ketzelier from CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, and congratulations on the results. This question is probably better suited for Michelle I was wondering if you could characterize the progress you're making towards regulatory approval for the U.S. utilities. And specifically, can you comment on where you're trying to demonstrate a net benefit? Can you provide your view on rate case stay-outs periods compared to other benefits that you might have as options to offer rate payers?

Sure. So, let me start just with the regulatory approvals. We have two out of the three federal regulatory approvals in the hands of CFIUS and HSR. We're waiting on FCC for a couple of the utilities we received, North Carolina, I think earlier this week, and we expect the rest of those by mid-month. And then things are progressing really well with the three utilities from a state level perspective. We still expect Ohio to go first, then Utah, then North Carolina. and all of that through the course of this year. As you pointed out, with a couple of the utilities, we do want to be able to demonstrate a net benefit. We think overall for all of the utilities, we can demonstrate a net benefit. And a lot of that is going to be off of leveraging the fact that this creates the largest natural gas platform, 7 million customers, that ability to bring together the strengths of the different utilities. So if you think of, as an example, Ohio is very technically strong Utah, very good cost to serve, very commercially strong in North Carolina. And of course, the benefit of 175 years of multiple areas of growth in Ontario and just already having 4 million customers really allows us to scale up. So we're looking at all of those things and demonstrating all those things to the utilities. In terms of stay-outs, we will consider those if it's appropriate. It's part of any discussion. I mean, we expect to have some requests for stay-outs. I think we had one of the interveners in Utah last week request a stay-out earlier this week, and that'll be something that we'll see. We're quite confident we can come to beneficial terms with everybody, and like I said, By bringing these four utilities together and the strengths they each have, there's no question that we'll be able to demonstrate net benefits.

Okay. Thank you for that. And just a second question here with respect to the regulatory process around rerouting Line 5 around the Bad River lands. Understanding that you've appealed the 2023 decision, I wondered if you can give an update on the timeline that was contemplated in the previous judgment. specifically where the regulatory process vis-a-vis that timeline, and do you expect any protection from the 1977 pipeline tree? Thank you.

Yeah, for sure, Robert. Thanks for the questions. And Colin's on the line, so he's probably the best one to update on that.

Hey, Robert. Yeah, sure. So the appeals hearing has started. Both Enbridge and the Bad River Band appealed that decision. That hearing has begun. We expect a decision on that later this year. In the meantime, we continue to try to work cooperatively with the band to come to an amicable settlement. The original decision, if that survives, would have us reroute the 41-mile reroute around the community by June 2026. that is doable. We are ready to go. The critical path permit is a Wisconsin DNR permit, which we expect here in the next month or two, which would allow us over a year or two to build that, which is doable. So that's the plan. And your second question was with regard to the treaty. Yeah, and we think that holds, obviously. That's the reason that the treaties were created. And we expect that to endure.

Hey, Robert, I just added on the treaty. I think that the... One thing I'll say is I give a lot of credit to the Canadian government, provincial governments, Been very strong supporters on this. So just understanding the just really criticality of Line 5 to so many different areas, labor unions, et cetera. So, you know, we feel good about that. We'll have to see. And I know there's been a request for the U.S. government to have a viewpoint on this. We'll see whether or not that happens. But just really strong support on both sides of the border and making sure we get through this in the right way so that all those consumers can be served. You never know with core things, but we feel very good about the level of support that we've got.

Okay. Thanks for those very fulsome answers, everyone.

Thanks, Robert.

Your next question comes from a line of Theresa Chen from Barclays. Your line is open.

Good morning. I'd like to touch on the liquid side as well. In terms of your mainline outlook for 2024, Given the apportionment, you know, many consecutive months, the delays in TMX and likely tracking, you know, above where, you know, we all originally thought mainline would be at this point and heading into, you know, summer 2024, what is your outlook for the system for the remainder of the year and what kind of, you know, upside can it bring relative to the 3 million barrel per day trend? throughput assumption embedded in guidance and, you know, how does that translate to the upper end of the guidance or above?

Yeah, Teresa, I can take that. It's Colin. Yeah, so listen, we're very confident in the mainline full path to the U.S. Gulf Coast. We think it'll be substantially full the foreseeable future. I think we've used numbers like 95% to 100%, even in 24%. through the piece. And I guess to your point, I mean, the mainline's been basically full for 75 years. So it's a trend that continues, and there's a bunch of fundamental reasons for that. So as Pat said, we're confident in our 24 guidance of 3 million barrels per day on average. That assumes the April 1 TMX and service date. But to the extent that it is delayed, that's a slight tailwind. Again, we believe we're going to be substantially full. Anyway, so a slight delay doesn't provide a massive increase for us, but there is some upside to that. I'm sure we'll get into this more at Enbridge Day, but to your point, there's a lot of demand pull on the mainline path, 39 refineries directly and directly connected, traditional markets. They pull that way. We've got a very competitive toll. We've contracted as much as we can on Flanagan South. That was very successful. That should be a strong market endorsement for that pull as well. I won't make any comments on TMX's timeline or capabilities, but very confident in the mainline path. And of course, we're building EHOD, I forgot about that, in Houston to further strengthen that path. So yeah, confident in the 3.0. That's relative to the 3.1 delivered just this year. And we've seen, that's your point, massively oversubscribed nominations in the last number of months, including January and February. So the trend continues.

Got it. And then in terms of the Dominion asset acquisitions, as we consider the remaining funding, just to clarify, the list of funding options that you put out there, is that consistent with your preference as far as, you know, prioritization, i.e., you know, aside from additional asset sales, you would rather do drip ATM over additional hybrids and bonds?

No, I wouldn't look at it like that, Teresa. It's great. I think we just, I wouldn't read anything into the listing there. I think we just wanted to make the point that, look, we've got all options available to us. And, you know, we may not use all those options. So, yeah, we've got, you know, the debt markets on secured notes and hybrids. And, you know, I I guess if I had to go down any list, I would say drip is probably the least interest from that perspective. But, frankly, everything's on the table from that perspective. And, as you know, we've done a good job on recycling, too. So, no, it's going to be situational. As you know, we've brought in much of the financing. So, you know, if somebody came along tomorrow and said you can close this utility or that one, we're ready to go. So I think that creates a ton of flexibility, which is why we went out early. Pat, I don't know if you want to add to that.

I think you hit it with us securing well over 85% of that funding. We're in really good shape to be selective of what we do and make sure we're making the best decision for our shareholders as we move forward.

Great. Thank you.

Next question comes from a line of Robert Kwan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Great. Good morning. If I can just continue on the funding side for the Dominion utilities acquisitions. So you've got that roughly $3 billion left to go. You've been out in front of the hybrids and the Align Foxable transaction. I guess I'm just wondering, how are you thinking about the timing of addressing the rest of the need vis-a-vis the closing? And as you mentioned around asset monetizations, Can you just give a sense as to, obviously you don't want to get necessarily into assets, but how much is in flight in terms of processes right now relative to that $3 billion?

Well, I'd say we're always looking at assets recycling. So I wouldn't even necessarily tie it to the transaction. I mean, I'm trying to think about if there's been a year in the last four or five where we haven't recycled. So we're always looking at assets. So I wouldn't necessarily tie it, you know, the dollars are back and forth fungible. From a timing perspective, I would again go down the, you know, in many respects, depending on which ones happen, the first two are basically finance. So we're going to have to look at what is the timing of those actual approvals, and that's going to determine which instrument we actually use. Obviously, some are quicker to exercise than others. Not meaning to be evasive, Robert, but I wouldn't necessarily tie recycling to just this transaction. I think we look at it, look, if somebody else has got greater value on an asset than we put on it, then you pull that trigger, right? And if it doesn't seem to have the growth or they can do something different with it. And I think Alliance and Oxable is exactly that. It had commodity exposure, but relatively low growth. And it fit the buyer's expectations. desire to kind of be more in that business, and probably they could take more risk in it than we're willing to do, given our utility-like structure. So I wouldn't tie any one of these instruments just to the transaction. I'd tie it more to, we'll know more as each one of these close, which ones we'll pull at that point in time.

Understood. I guess that answered, that was a segue into the second question. And on the other side, just If we're thinking about, you know, capital allocation in 2024, you know, following the announcement of the acquisition, you also acquired some other businesses, the German Wind Incremental Sale or a stake, Morrow, Fox Squirrel. Yeah. Generically, are other acquisitions budgeted into guidance here? And I get that I'm trying to color code this to a degree, but anything else you do does kind of leave the Dominion funding outstanding. So how are you thinking about acquisitions in 2024, given you're still short?

Right. So first of all, there are no other acquisitions in our budget, right, or in our forecast that we've put out or in our budget for that matter. It's the same. So that's one. Two, if anything came along, as you can imagine, as a big player in the sector and throughout North America, we get to see things all the time. It would have to be tuck-in-like, first of all, so nowhere near like what we did last year. Secondly, it would have to be immediately accretive to our share per share metrics. And thirdly, it would have to be neutral or accretive to our debt metrics as well. And, you know, when I think about different parts of the business, and I'm sure Colin will speak to this on Investor Day, you know, we've got some great builds that can be done at, you know, low rates. medium single digit. So the competition for capital will be challenging given the position our base businesses are in today and the growth opportunities that they see. But we'll have to look at it. So again, no M&A is in our forecast other than the ones that we're closing today. It's a high hurdle rate on the M&A front, and we're very focused on integrating these new assets with excellent right across the board, whether it's the renewable stuff, that Matthew manages or whether it's the Morrow assets. And remember, we bought a couple of storage assets. Making sure that's all running exactly as we want it to do is going to be a key focus.

That's great. Thanks, Greg.

Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Azargalas from TD Cowan. Your line is open.

Thank you. This is a bit of a foundational question. on just the regulatory compact in North America or specifically the U.S., and it relates to the Chevron Doctrine. It's been about 40 years since the Supreme Court decided that the court should defer to a federal agency's reasonable interpretation of an ambiguous statute. If that gets discarded or removed this summer, what impact might that have on your business And how might that inform your approach to, for example, a likely higher frequency of settlements in your gas transmission business? How you might see federal agencies maybe shifting their approach? And I think there could be a few moving parts there, if you could just comment on how you're thinking of that evolving situation.

Yeah, it's a good question. You know, it's... We'll probably have to give that some more consideration at Investor Day and walk through that a little bit. I mean, obviously, there's several pieces of this. It depends on which part of the business. As you point out, it's probably a much more relevant issue to our utility businesses that are coming in, particularly in the United States, because many of our other businesses, as you know, we're often seeking to settle, whether it's Texas Eastern, whether it's the mainline tolling. settlements. We like to work with customers and get more of a deal in that regard. But as it is with utilities, I'll even go as far as things like incentive, long-term incentive deals like we've been able to do historically in Ontario. I think that limits some of our exposure to some of the, if there's a change in the Chevron doctrine. But I think it's a good point, Linda, and We should probably give it a more fulsome discussion and answer as we kind of move into Investor Day. I don't know. Michelle, do you want to add anything to that?

Well, I think at the end of the day, a lot of what we deal with at the utilities is determined and is inside the jurisdiction at the state level. So in that sense, we'll be looking to them. But I think we'd better take that one back. Yeah.

Yeah, I look forward to that because, yeah, even renewable policy and stuff like that could be good. But just maybe as a follow-on, just with respect to your appeal and motion in Ontario, can you give us an update on how you're partnering with the provincial government? Because I think they had an intention to introduce legislation to overturn a certain aspect of the OAB decision as it related to eliminating amortization of new gas connections for homes and affordability. And then maybe you can just comment on the timeline of these processes and when you expect them to be resolved and if you're fully successful, kind of what the upside is versus kind of the current decision as it stands.

Sure, I can cover a few of those things. So I wouldn't say we're partnering with the government of Ontario, but we've certainly made our concerns clear to them. Although, as you saw by the pretty swift and decisive statements they made within hours of the release, they were well ahead of us on the concerns. I mean, at the end of the day, obviously we're disappointed, but this is a case where the regulators made a decision that's just simply not in keeping with the policies of the government. That's exactly what Minister Smith said right away. You know, we don't expect it to be material to Enbridge's overall 2024 financial guidance, but it's frustrating and disappointing on a lot of fronts. I mean, there's a strong bias against natural gas in there. There's a presuppose that will rapidly electrify all the heating load and abandon the gas network. And fundamentally, it limits access to affordable energy. I mean, the fact of the matter is, I think there's short-term issues and there may be some short-term struggles here, but Long term, the fact of the matter is Ontario is not going to meet its economic growth aspirations without the flexibility and affordability that natural gas and natural gas infrastructure provides it. The government knows that. I mean, they've said very clearly they need to build 1.5 million new homes in the next 10 years. There's almost 3 million people expected to move to Ontario in the next decade. And I don't know that folks fully recognize this, but our, for example, our industrial sector, and contract market growth has been really strong in the last few years. And that's coming from things like the electric vehicle battery, the manufacturing sector. I was just down looking at the Next Star plant. They need our cost-effective natural gas to support their manufacturing processes. The greenhouse developers that we have in southwestern Ontario absolutely rely on natural gas to provide their product affordably. And things like steelmaking, whether that's DeFasco and Hamilton or others, need natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of what they have. So, you know, we're certainly working with the government of Ontario, making sure they understand the full implications of this decision, that it goes well beyond the revenue horizon piece. I mean, to state the obvious, that impacts their ability to deliver those homes, but that it's further reaching than that over the long term, should it stay in place. I mean, in the near term, it's about $300 million in capital that it pulls back this year for us. But again, it remains to be seen what actions are taken. We, of course, have preserved our interest by filing a notice to appeal with the Ontario Divisional Courts and a motion to review. The motion to review would likely go first. That's what the Ontario Energy Board itself, where we would set out a number of things, including the fact that there are new facts on the table, the new facts pointing to the press release from the government that clarifies its policy, the energy and electrification transition panel, that sort of thing will be out there. Typically, the timeline for something like a review motion of this can be anywhere from 135 to 165 days, and we'll go through those steps, certainly, but as you said, the government has said that they will take action and take that action much more immediately. You know, the legislature's coming back, I think it's February 20th, and they certainly do understand that the immediacy of the issue, that this impacts us right here and right now, should we reduce those levels of capital, and that it's important to them to maintain Ontario as an attractive place to invest. So I'm pretty confident we're going to get this one resolved. It's always good to be on the side of where government wants to go and on the side of their policy. And in the meantime, like we talked about earlier, we've got lots to focus on, too, with finalizing the acquisitions of the three utilities in the U.S. and integrating them.

Yeah, Linda, I think that real milestone, as Michelle said, is, you know, let's see what happens at the end of February. Yeah, exactly. That's a triggering event for us as to, you know, where things look like they're going. As she said, it doesn't really have an impact on 24. The issue is from a long-term perspective, if they get this right and they want to see continued economic growth and reach their sustainability goals, that means there's going to be a greater rate base in the natural gas business. And that's what it's all about. And, you know, it's kind of not that obviously we saw this coming, but it's kind of serendipitous for us that there are three other jurisdictions that would love to have our investment opportunities and actually are very positively disposed and have legislation even giving the choice that we want Ontario consumers to have. So I think from an Enbridge perspective, the net opportunity is still more rate-based, more earnings opportunity, and more growth, hopefully in four jurisdictions in North America, and that's kind of what we're focused on achieving.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonette from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Good morning. Just want to follow up, I guess, on the last point as it relates to Enbridge Gas there and wondering if you might be able to talk a little bit more about the timeline, how things could unfold here, and as we think about OEB Phase 2, Phase 3, just thoughts at this point given the what's transpired so far. And, you know, at the same time, what you're touching on there, as far as, I guess, when the Dominion acquisition concludes successfully, you know, could you see kind of capital being pulled away towards those jurisdictions, given kind of what you've seen for, you know, regulatory outcomes so far?

Thank you. Yeah, you know, like I said earlier, I mean, the real, and as Greg said, with the really indicative point will be later this month when we see what the government of Ontario comes out with in terms of how they propose to rectify this issue and follow through on Minister Smith's statement. That being said, there is the motion to review process that I mentioned that will take a few months. I mean, that would likely take till by summer for us to resolve things. But that being said, there's plenty of work for us to do in Ontario and we're continuing to Certainly always focus on investing and ensuring the safety and the reliability of the assets we have and that they continue to flow and provide the gas that people need and want. We're big fans instead of customer choice. And that's really where, as Greg alluded to, that goes to the U.S. jurisdictions and the three utilities that we've acquired there. I mean, they all have very strong equity thickness. They all have good ROEs, and we'll be looking to make sure that we understand exactly what the growth opportunities are. I mean, we've looked at it through our due diligence, of course. We feel very good about the growth opportunities. I mean, Ohio has a strong modernization program with very quick return on its capital. We see in Utah very strong customer growth. They're also using a natural gas for some decarbonization activities. There's a lot of commercial growth there. And then similarly in North Carolina, very strong commercial and residential growth. And again, the decarbonization where they're looking to move or reduce the intensity of their power production moving off of coal and into natural gas. You know, we've seen really good growth in our regulated business in Ontario. I think I've mentioned why I really believe we'll continue to see really good growth in Ontario. Strong, people are moving to Ontario, lots of homes wanting to be built. It's got all the pieces. I mean, we're towards the end of our modernization program in Ontario, but we still have lots of work to do to help industrials to reduce their intensity. But, you know, the fact is we currently have an equity thickness for the gas utility there that, although it went up marginally a couple of percentage points with the decision of the OEB, it's still one of the lowest in North America. And as LDCs, we need to compete for capital. Whether that's here within Enbridge or... We're on a North American scale. So these jurisdictions that are new to us, these new to us utilities, they operate in strong jurisdictions that recognize that part of ensuring the sustainability of their energy systems and their economies includes ensuring they have a transparent, predictable, and competitive regulatory regime. So we're really, really excited about bringing them in as quickly as possible, integrating them smoothly, and looking towards where else there's growth.

Got it. Makes sense. Thank you for that. And just second question real quick here. Suppose you're not going to give us everything that's going to be happening at the analyst day, but just wondering if there's any foreshadowing or overall objectives that you see for the upcoming analyst day that you want the investment community to come away with.

Yeah, well, you're right. We're not going to give you that idea. That would not make March 6th that much fun, actually. But look, the fundamental fact is, and I don't believe that currently the stock reflects it in any way, shape, or form is that we've got a growth plan that extends beyond, you know, the three-year forecast that we put out and our expectations. I don't think that's being realized in the market, you know, both from an efficiency perspective in terms of the blending and extending of growth with the new assets that we've picked up and that we're building. And we're really going to walk through that for all of you and how all of these pieces fit together. And I'll just give a brief example. Rebecca's looking at me saying, don't give too much. But just a brief example would be, think about Ohio itself. You're just talking about the utilities. We have all of our businesses located in Ohio. It's a good example where we see opportunities to provide customers, shareholders and stakeholders with real value added. So we have liquid lines that serve refineries there. We have gas transmission that goes through Ohio. We'll have a great utility there that wants to see growth. And, you know, Matthews got renewable assets there. So we think that is a real opportunity to create value on all fronts. And I don't think that's being realized. So that's the thesis. And that's what I want you to walk away from March 6th with.

Got it. Thank you for that. Appreciate it. Your next question comes from a line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank.

Your line is open.

Good morning, everyone. A bit of a broader question from me. In your conversations, you've talked about some good regulatory jurisdictions versus a more challenging decision from Ontario. Historically, Ontario has been seen as a relatively pro-gas and relatively good regulatory regime. So when you look forward, especially given the fact that you will be introducing some incremental jurisdictions here, how do you ensure that the good regulatory jurisdictions stay that way? And then as you move forward, how do you expect to continue to interact with governments and regulators such that they see the value and need of the natural gas systems?

Sure, I can take that. Well, first of all, let's be clear. Ontario still is pro-gas. I mean, I think if you take nothing from the statement from the Minister of Energy, take that. I'd also refer you to things like the Powering Ontario's growth plan that they have. But at the end of the day, I think with all of these jurisdictions, one of the things we really believe is that strong local presence is important. So we have and will maintain very strong local leaders of each of these utilities so that vice presidents and GMs For Ohio, Utah, and North Carolina, they're there. They're very well known by the regulators, well known by the folks in government in each of those jurisdictions, just like our folks in Ontario are very well known and well respected. I mean, it's really important to us to be seen as trusted advisors, to be transparent in our dealings, to do what's best for the communities we operate in. I mean, we think of ourselves as being in service, and in fact, that service name is in some of the utilities' names. So those are all critical. But in order to ensure that we make the transition smoothly, it's been very important for us to go out and meet with the regulators. I've personally met with the head of every public utility that has jurisdiction over the assets we're requiring, whether that's Wyoming, Utah, North Carolina, Ohio. I've met with their staff. I've met with various members of government. Greg, I think you've met with at least two of the governors. You met with Ohio, and you and I met together with Utah. I think I'm meeting with North Carolina here in a couple of weeks, the governor of North Carolina. I met with the lieutenant governor of North Carolina a couple weeks ago. I mean, that's an important part of it, that they understand who we are, that we're credible, that we'll do the right thing by these jurisdictions. And I can tell you, All four of them, what they talked to me about is wanting to ensure that gas continues to be delivered reliably and affordably. And that's something that is a real advantage that all of these utilities have. I mean, if you look at the storage, we haven't talked about our Dawn storage facility, because maybe we haven't had the extreme colds that we've had in the past. But Dawn has continued to just set records out of Ontario. Ohio has six major pipelines that are serving it. Utah with the Wexpro assets. Again, all of those things really help keep the price stable, keep it affordable, keep it reliable. Same thing in North Carolina. We've got an LNG facility there, or we will have an LNG facility there. I can't get ahead of myself. Of course, the folks in North Carolina are proposing a second one. That's really what they care about. It's important to keep those relationships open. It's important that they know that they can reach out to us at any time, and it's important for us to be listening closely to to what they want for their people.

You know, Rob, I think in taking it up to the overall Enbridge level, I think whether it's Cynthia's business, Colin's business, you've heard about Michelle or Matthew's, I think we work real hard at our regulatory relationships. We have to, much harder than we did historically because of some of the, what I'll say, confusion about energy transition. And, you know, I think the whole portfolio, when you look at from top to bottom, really fits the current state and actually, you know, probably the state that it'll be in some period of time, long, long tail and future for oil, natural gas. You know, it's not a destination fuel. It's an ultimate fuel that's going to be there. There isn't really a future without natural gas in most parts of the planet. And that doesn't take away from renewables. And we get into those communities. We're in 40 plus states and eight provinces. And, you know, we've got to make sure that they value our investment. I think if you look at our Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan is another good example. And you look at projects we've done to include groups that haven't historically been involved. That's how you build strong alliances. And those strong alliances actually make the regulator's job easier. And when you get something off balance that seems to be counter to a regulatory outcome that's counter to policy or the communities, then you see those changes. And that's what you had in Ontario, right? So regulators require to independently regulate consistent with government policy. That's not what happened in Ontario, right? But it's our job to keep working with these communities. And when you have issues, make sure that the home builders understand the implications. Make sure that the manufacturers understand the implications. That our union brothers and sisters understand the implications. I think it's much bigger than regulatory, and as an industry and definitely as a company, I think we've continued to improve with that, and we've got to keep getting better and better at that and telling our message.

All right. Appreciate that, folks, for the answer. That's it for me. Thank you.

Your next question comes from a line of Ben Pham from BMO. Your line is open.

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Hi. Maybe we can go back to the main line. I know you've been talking about the positive trends in terms of volumes this year, and I'm wondering if you can maybe add a bit of color on, do you think some of this is producers building ahead of TMAX, or do you think it's more mostly demand-driven that's driving it?

Hey, Ben, it's Colin. Yeah, thanks for your question. And, you know, I've kind of flipped through most of the analyst estimates, and I think most analysts have updated their forecasts on this. And I think, you know, this notion that the mainland is going to lose a bunch of volume when TMAX comes in is a bit of a stale concept. It might have been valid a few years ago, but it's been delayed materially.

And in that

multi-year period of delay, supply has structurally and permanently grown. It's rateable production. And that demand is there.

It's basically insatiable. So, I mean, just to run through this, in 2022, supply grew by 100,000 barrels a day.

Last year in 23, supply grew by 150,000 barrels per day in Canada. In 2024, it's looking to grow between 250,000 and 300,000 a day and in 2025, another couple hundred thousand barrels per day. If you add that up, it's probably 2x what TMX is likely to practically move.

So that's kind of the math that we're looking at and gives us a lot of confidence in the

in the 3 million barrels per day forecast for 2024. There has been a bit of storage growth, maybe to your point, anticipation of that, and we see that in our nominations being oversubscribed. So apportionment has been high. We may still have apportionment once TMX comes in, depending on the month or day or crude slate. So we're going to be pretty full. I don't know if that answers your question.

Yeah, that's great. It's interesting to hear events. Thanks for that. Maybe the second question may be for Greg. When you talk about balanced business mix with Dominion, are you putting renewables in gas? When you think about that, percentage and how you frame the business mix? Do you think about that as a separate odd in your business mix?

You know, it's interesting because we definitely, you know, we put the four businesses, if you drew a pie chart, if you will, we put them separately. But I guess what I was saying is that they're just increasingly more integrated in terms of what our customers and I think what investors want as well. even on a proportion basis. So here's the way I would look at it. Just about 50% or once the utilities are closed, maybe a little bit less than 50% of the business will be liquids and 50% or more will be gas and renewables. So that's probably the way to think about it from a split perspective. There's no doubt, as you know, a lot of support for renewables is needed by the gas sector, right? So as backups. So they're definitely connected. And often that's done by utilities, but sometimes it's done by, you know, independent other power plants or just the gas pipelines as well, making sure that flows. So I think we kind of, you're right, we sort of split the liquids business and then the gas business and renewable business together. But they really are working all together on multiple fronts. And again, I think we're going to talk about that on yesterday.

Okay, that's great. Thank you. Thank you.

Our final question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Thanks. Maybe on that last point of being split, you know, 50% gas, renewables, LDC, and 50% liquids, I'm just thinking maybe strategically how you think about the company, you know, pro forma for the LDC transactions. Is it more of a utility or a midstream company? And then I guess the in the context of that, do you think there should be more focused by investors on PE multiples and earnings rather than EBITDA and free cashflow, and then maybe even more leverage credit from the rating agencies? Just kind of curious for your thoughts on that.

Yeah, it's a bit of a, I mean, I guess I would say the entire company we've moved to be more utility like, right. Even if you think about the MTS, uh, in, in Collins, uh, gang that, uh, pulled off that and about to get approved. Or even as you think about the renewable business, you know, we've structured our renewable business very different from some of the folks that you see out there, i.e., you know, long-term power purchase or contracts for projects even before they're built or immediately upon construction. So I think that's very utility-like. You know, I think DCF's still the right look because, you know, you look at businesses like The liquids business that are generating a lot of cash flow, and they don't look as utility-like. So I think that's the right way to consider it. And then obviously, I think dividend yield. Dividend yield relative to, you know, long bonds and 10-year bonds of government. I think that's the other way people should. So I think it's a bit of a mix. You know, and you're right. We have a little bit higher leverage for all the right reasons, no more risk than what you'd see a pure midstream. but considerably less than what you'd see major utilities in the United States.

Got it. And then maybe just switching gears to Grey Oak, it looks like you're close to launching an open season for the expansion in the coming months. Can you talk about if that goes well and you're successful, when that capacity could come into service, and then whether you'd be offering a joint tariff for transport and exports out of Ingleside? And if so, do you think that concept of bundling the transport and export will give you a competitive advantage? Because as we look at the basin itself, it is kind of overbuilt from a takeaway or egress perspective.

Yeah, good question. I think Colin can take that. We've just had the board down at Ingleside in the last few days for our board meetings. A lot of excitement there. So Colin, do you want to take that?

Yeah, sure. I wish I was still there. It's snowy up in Calgary here. So the answer is yes and yes. So the market should imminently expect basically a great open in Ingleside, open season here in the next few weeks. I hope we talk more about that at Enbridge Day. As Greg alluded to, very efficient capital deployment here, low multiples. Yes, on integrated tariffs, we already have the cheapest path to the water there. It's already a competitive advantage, but we can do more of that. And pipeline capacity to Corpus is effectively full already. Probably some space to Houston, but a very attractive path to Corpus. So we want to bring some of that capacity on. you know, call it 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day as soon as we can. There's appetite for that. It is a relatively efficient, simple plumbing increase here, so we can bring some of that on as early as 2024 and some in 2025. And as a reminder, we've got a couple of million barrels of new tankage coming into service here in April, independent of that that we sanctioned last year. The crawl, walk, run approach continues towards our large ambition in the Permian to create a light super system to rival the heavy super system we have.

Thanks for the question. Thank you.

We have reached the end of our question and answer period. Rebecca, I turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

Great. Thank you, and we appreciate your ongoing interest in Enbridge. As always, our investor relations team is available following the call for any additional questions that you may have. Once again, thank you and have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.