2/4/2025

speaker
Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the Innova International fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cassidy Patterson, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Cassidy Patterson
Investor Relations

Thank you, operator and good afternoon everyone. Innova released results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 ended December 31st, 2024, this afternoon after the market closed. If you did not receive a copy of our earnings press release, you may obtain it from the investor relations section of our website at .innova.com. With me on today's call are David Fisher, Chief Executive Officer and Steve Cunningham, Chief Financial Officer. This call is being webcast and will be archived on the investor relations section of our website. Before I turn the call over to David, I'd like to note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements and as such is subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially as a result from these various important risk factors, including those discussed in our earnings press release and in our annual report on form 10K, quarterly reports on form 10Q and current reports on forms 8K. Please note that any forward-looking statements that are made on this call are based on assumptions as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. In addition to US GAAP reporting, ANOVA reports certain financial measures that do not conform to generally accepted accounting principles. We believe these non-GAAP measures enhance the understanding of our performance. Reconciliation between these GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the tables found in today's press release. As noted in our earnings release, we have posted supplemental financial information on the IR portion of our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks and good afternoon, everyone. I appreciate you joining our call today. We are pleased to end a strong year with another solid quarter. Four-quarter results were in line or better than our expectations with over 20% growth in revenue, originations, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted ETS as compared to 2023, all driven by solid growth across our portfolio and stable credit. 2024 was ANOVA's best year yet, resulting in record levels of revenue, originations and ETS. Our skilled team, world-class technology, proprietary machine learning algorithms and diversified product offerings have enabled us to achieve a 20-year history of profitably lending through a variety of credit cycles. Four-quarter originations increased 20% year over year and 6% sequentially to $1.7 billion. As a result of the strong origination growth, our combined loan and finance receivables increased 21% year over year to a record $4 billion. Consistent with recent quarters, small business products represented 62% of the total portfolio and consumer was 38%. As we expected, origination growth moderated from the 25% plus growth we generated in the first nine months of the year due to our continued focus on balancing risk and growth as well as the typical year over year comparison from very strong originations growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. As we discussed last quarter, we are disciplined in this balanced approach that is grounded in our extremely sophisticated unit economics framework. And so while we could certainly be growing originations faster given our strong competitive position and stable credit, we believe our current approach positions the business well for long-term success. It is also important to remember that our online-only business model generates significant operating leverage and combined with our commitment to repurchasing our stock, we continue to expect EPS growth to outpace origination growth as Steve will discuss in more detail. We generated revenue of $730 million in the quarter, an increase of 25% year over year and 6% sequentially. Profitability metrics grew even faster driven by our strong operating leverage and diligent credit management. Adjusted EBITDA increased 34% year over year and adjusted EPS increased 43%. Once again, our diversified portfolio and efficient marketing were the underpinnings of this growth. SMB revenue increased 36% year over year and 6% sequentially to a record $286 million, while our consumer revenue increased 19% year over year and 6% sequentially to a record $434 million. Marketing expense was 21% of our total revenue in line with our expectations at WIC Q4 of 2023. As I mentioned, credit quality remains good across the portfolio due to the stability and strength we have seen in the performance of our customers. The consolidated net charge off ratio for the quarter declined slightly from the fourth quarter of 2023 as we saw improvements in that ratio in both our consumer and small businesses. Despite significant growth in both of those portfolios. Demand and credit in our consumer business continues to be driven by jobs and wage growth. Our target customers are those who traditional lenders view as too risky and too difficult to underwrite, leading them to be underserved by mainstream financial institutions. Due to our highly experienced team and proprietary improvement technology and analytics, we've been very successful serving this large segment of the market. And the macroeconomic environment continues to be favorable for this group. The latest jobs report showed a strong finish to the year with unemployment ticking down slightly from .2% in November to .1% in December, highlighting the economy's resilience. December also recorded the largest monthly jobs gain of the year, indicating that the US economy remains strong. Further, the strength in the labor market is concentrated in our target customers demographic as wage gains on average have exceeded inflation. Turning to our SMB business, we had our second quarter in a row of over $1 billion in originations, driven by continued consumer spending and optimism about the current economy from small businesses. In conjunction with Oculus, in November we released the fourth iteration of our Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report, which offers key insights into small business cash flow trends, inflation challenges, and growth opportunities. Consistent with previous findings, the survey found that small businesses feel increasingly optimistic about future growth as over 90% of small business owners are expecting moderate to significant growth over the next six months. This latest report also shows a meaningful shift in where small businesses are first seeking capital, as nearly 75% of small business owners reported bypassing traditional banks in favor of alternative lenders like Innova. Supporting our own findings, the National Federation of Independent Business announced that its Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.4 points to 105.1 in December, marking the second month in a row above the 51-year average of 98 and the highest reading since October of 2018. Before I wrap up, I'd like to take a few moments to discuss our strategy and outlook for 2025 and beyond. We're encouraged by the strong momentum and good credit performance across our portfolio. As I just mentioned, based on internal and external data, both our consumer and small business customers are on solid footing as they continue to benefit from job growth, low unemployment rates, easing inflation, and rising real wages. And while it's so very early in the year, we're off to a great start with strong origination volumes across all of our products. Over our 20-year company history, we've demonstrated a track record of consistent profitable lending through cycles with proven unit economics. We are pleased to have delivered a strong end to a strong year in 2024, supported by a constructive macroeconomic and operating backdrop, which provides solid momentum and positions us well for 2025. That said, we remain mindful of the potential for changes in the macro environment, but we believe our business is resilient across a wide range of economic conditions, and we are committed to a balanced strategy of generating meaningful growth while carefully managing risk. Finally, I want to extend a big thanks for the amazing team we have built at Inova. Our performance in 2024 was made possible by the hard work and determination of this world-class team, leading us to be ranked among computer world's best places to work in IT for the 12th year in a row. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Steve Cunningham, our CFO, who will discuss our financial results and outlook in more detail. And following Steve's remarks, we'll be happy to answer any questions you may have. Steve?

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. We're pleased to close 2024 with financial results that once again met or exceeded our expectations. Our strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024 continues to demonstrate how the powerful combination of our diversified product offerings, scalable operating model, world-class risk management capabilities, and balance sheet flexibility allow us to consistently deliver strong top and bottom line results. Turning to our fourth quarter results, total company revenue of $730 million increased 25% from the fourth quarter of 2023, slightly exceeding our expectations. As total company combined loan and finance receivables balances on an amortized basis increased 20% from the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. Total company originations during the fourth quarter rose 20% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to just over $1.7 billion. Revenue from small business lending increased 36% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to $286 million as small business receivables on an amortized basis ended the quarter at $2.5 billion or 21% higher than the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. Small business originations rose 20% year over year to $1.1 billion. Revenue from our consumer businesses increased 19% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to $434 million as consumer receivables on an amortized basis ended the fourth quarter at $1.5 billion or 19% higher than the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. Consumer originations grew 21% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to $602 million. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect total company revenue to be flat to slightly higher sequentially, resulting in year over year revenue growth of around 20%. This expectation will depend upon the level, timing, and mix of originations growth during the quarter. Now turning to credit,

speaker
Vincent Cantik
BTIG

which is

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

the most significant driver of net revenue and portfolio fair value. As a reminder, consumer credit losses typically follow a seasonal pattern, peaking in the fourth quarter and reaching their lowest point during the second quarter. The consolidated net revenue margin of 57% for the fourth quarter was in line with our expectations and reflects continued strong credit performance. The consolidated net charge off ratio for the fourth quarter declined 80 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 to 8.9%, with the net charge off ratios for the consumer and small business portfolios both experiencing meaningful year over year decreases. Expectations for our future credit performance remain stable as reflected by the sequential and year over year improvement in the consolidated 30 plus day delinquency rate, as well as the stability in the consolidated portfolio fair value premium. Looking ahead, we expect the total company net revenue margin for the first quarter of 2025 to be flat sequentially as the impact of lower sequential consolidated originations from the aforementioned expected consumer seasonality is offset by sequential improvement in the consolidated net charge off rate we typically see in the first quarter. This expectation will depend upon portfolio payment performance and the level timing and mix of originations growth during the first quarter. Now turning to expenses. Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter, including marketing, was 34% of revenue, compared to 37% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, as we continue to see the benefits of our efficient marketing activities, the leverage inherent in our online only model and thoughtful expense management. Fourth quarter marketing spend continued to efficiently drive growth and was in line with our expectations. Marketing costs increased to $151 million, or 21% of revenue, compared to $122 million, or 21% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023. With the seasonality we typically experience during the first quarter of the year, we expect marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to range in the upper teens for the first quarter and will depend upon the growth and mix of originations. Operations and technology expenses for the fourth quarter increased to $58 million, or 8% of revenue, compared to $47 million, or 8% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by growth in receivables and originations over the past year. Given the significant variable component of this expense category, sequential increases in O&T costs could be expected in an environment where originations and receivables are growing. It should be around .5% of total revenue. Our fixed costs continue to scale as we focus on operating efficiency and thoughtful expense management. General administrative expenses for the fourth quarter increased to $38 million, or 5% of revenue, excluding one-time items, G&A expenses in the fourth quarter of 2023, totaled $34 million, or 6% of revenue. While there may be slight variations from quarter to quarter, we expect G&A expenses in the near term will be around 6% of total revenue. Our balance sheet and liquidity position remains strong and give us the financial flexibility to successfully navigate a range of operating environments while delivering on our commitment to drive long-term shareholder value through both continued investments in our business and share repurchases. During the fourth quarter, we acquired 525,000 shares at a cost of $51 million, and we started 2025 with share repurchase capacity of approximately $65 million available under our senior no-covenants. We're pleased by the increase in our valuation during 2024, which better recognizes the ability of our differentiated business model to deliver consistently strong financial results. With that said, we still believe there's more value inherent in our business given our expectations for 2025 adjusted EPS growth, which I'll discuss in a moment, and the PEG ratio based on current analyst estimates for 2025 and 2026. Given this opportunity, we remain committed to opportunistic stock buybacks as our primary vehicle to unlock shareholder value, and we are very well positioned to do so as we ended the fourth quarter with $1.3 billion of liquidity, including $326 million of cash and marketable securities and $944 million of available capacity on debt facilities. Our cost of funds for the fourth quarter was $9.5 billion, 9.1%, or 43 basis points lower than the third quarter, primarily as a result of the Federal Reserve's 100 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate over the past several months, as well as strong execution on recent financing transactions. We expect some continued reduction in our cost of funds during 2025, but the level will depend upon the pace of additional rate cuts by the Fed, if any, credit spreads on new financing transactions, our funding mix, and the level, timing, and mix of originations growth. Even with no additional rate cuts by the Fed, we expect our cost of funds for the full year 2025 to decline approximately 50 basis points from the full year 2024 rate of 9.3%, which would result in interest expenses, a percentage of revenue for the full year 2025 of around 10 to 10 and a quarter percent. Our effective tax rates in the fourth quarter was 18%. The sequential decline was driven by a decrease in our uncertain tax position reserve and related interest, tax benefits resulting from share price increases on stock options exercised during the fourth quarter, and favorable state rate changes. While there may be variations from quarter to quarter, we expect our normalized annual effective tax rate to remain in the mid 20% range. Finally, we continue to deliver solid profitability this quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, increased 34% to $174 million, and adjusted EPS, a non-GAAP measure, increased 43% to $2.61 per diluted share. To wrap up, let me summarize our first quarter and full year 2025 expectations. For the first quarter, we expect revenue to follow our typical seasonality and to be flat to slightly higher sequentially. Seasonally lower originations are expected to offset improvement in the net charge off rate, resulting in little change to the net revenue margin sequentially. In addition, we expect marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the upper teens, O&T costs of around .5% of revenue, and GNA costs around 6% of revenue. Interest expenses as a percentage of revenue is expected to be around 10.5%. With a more normalized tax rate, these expectations should lead to adjusted EPS for the first quarter of 2025, but it's about 5% higher sequentially. Our first quarter expectations will depend upon customer payment rates, and the level, timing, and mix of originations growth. Now turning to our expectations for the full year of 2025, assuming a stable macroeconomic environment with no material changes in the unemployment situation in a largely unchanged interest rate environment, we would expect growth in originations for the full year 2025 compared to the full year of 2024 to increase by around 15%. The resulting growth in receivables with stable credit, continued operating leverage, and a reduced cost of funds should result in full year 2025 growth for revenue that is slightly faster than originations, and adjusted EPS growth of around 25%. Our expectations for 2025 will depend upon the macroeconomic environment and the resulting impact on demand, customer payment rates, and the level, timing, and mix of originations growth. In closing, we're proud of what we achieved during 2024, and it started 2025 on solid financial footing with a constructive macroeconomic environment. We remain confident in our ability to generate meaningful financial results by leveraging our differentiated business model and balance sheet strength to meet customer needs while creating significant value for our shareholders. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

speaker
Operator

Operator? We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question is from Moshe Orenbach with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Moshe Orenbach
TD Cowen

Great, thanks, Dave and Steve. Could you talk a little bit about kind of the competitive environment in both consumer and small business and how you're seeing it, any changes? It feels like some lenders are coming back on the consumer side. I'm not sure if that's in your market or around it. Could you just give us a little bit there?

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. Yeah, I think as you can see from the very strong origination growth in Q4 that there certainly hasn't been any negative impacts from competition. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've also had a very strong start to Q1 with January originations. You know, you do see people kind of poking in and out both on the consumer side and small business side. But they tend to be smaller. The impacts tend to be smaller. They tend to be fleeting. We've not seen kind of a sustained competitive push on either the consumer or small business side in a very, very long time. And again, I think evidence by ability to take really significant volume in Q4 kind of shows that to be the case.

speaker
Moshe Orenbach
TD Cowen

Okay, thanks. And maybe a couple of the other lenders in non-prime, most of, I think there are probably more credit card, but still have talked about a little less seasonality in the business. Is that something that you've seen? Or, you know, because it sounded like you're looking for, you know, typical seasonal patterns from the standpoint of, you know, originations, repayments and credit. Anything that's changed, you know, since in the last year or two?

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Moshe, this is Steve. You know, I think, as I said in my remarks, I think we expect to see the typical seasonality as we move through Q1. You can see that, you know, particularly in Q4, on the consumer side, you can see that the timing of that move around month to month, but depending on the timing of certain holidays, but you have tended to see that happen pretty consistently. And with Q1 coming online, some of that could carry over a little bit into January, but you typically see it fall off fairly quickly as you move into the post-holiday and tax refund season. So I think, from our point of view, the seasonality that we've seen over time, it still holds.

speaker
Operator

Great,

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

thanks so much.

speaker
Operator

The next question is from David Sharf with JMP. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Sharf
JMP

Thanks, thanks for taking my questions. David, maybe just following up on some of the sort of top-down sentiment commentary you provided. You know, regarding, you know, the sort of consistent comment that, you know, you could grow faster, but, you know, it's not in the best interest. As you think about the consumer, you know, are you seeing any signs of what you would call a healthier consumer versus a year ago, or rather, are you sitting on a loan book that has better consumers because you tightened credit? Just trying to get a sense as you kind of gauge the macro environment, you know, whether it's just sort of stable and reflecting, you know, the credit actions you've taken over the last couple of years, or if in fact there are any indicators out there that, you know, are some green flags that say, you know what, maybe we will loosen the credit box a little.

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let me answer that two different ways. Kind of a top-down and bottom-up way of viewing it. I think on the consumer side of our business, we see the consumers that we target, you know, kind of more globally being very strong. We think that segment of the population continues to benefit from a very strong labor market and rising wages. And in that environment, that's a very conducive environment for us. In terms of the overall portfolio, I think we were actually a little light on risk a year ago, and we added a bit of risk during the year, not a ton, and most of it actually in the first half of the year, and then kind of maintained in the second half of the year. So as you kind of play that forward through 2025, I would not expect kind of major changes in the performance of the portfolio. Because as you know, our consumer book is very short-term in nature. So most of that additional risk you would have seen by the end of 2024. So overall, we feel really good about the book that we've already originated, but also the continued health of the kind of non-prime consumer, which makes us feel good about the performance of the book going forward, but also our ability to originate additional loans. On the small business side, I would say if anything, we feel better about the health of small businesses across the country. I think they've had one more year to build strength kind of following the pandemic and following the high inflationary years of kind of 22, early 23. And so we're feeling also very good about kind of the general health of small businesses.

speaker
David Sharf
JMP

Yeah, that's a helpful color. And on the SMB side, boy, this may be real early, but based on either just maybe informal chatter or surveys and or the vertical, you know, the industry mix of who you lend to, do you anticipate any impact from just all of the noise around tariffs impacting the demand for your credit?

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

I mean, yeah, it certainly could, but depends how large the kind of macro impacts are. But you know, there's businesses that are benefit from the tariffs and businesses that will, you know, get hurt from the tariffs. And we have extremely diversified small business loan book as we discussed before. And so, you know, we largely think that will balance out. There's not any concentrations in our loan books, say, you know, from wholesalers, for example, that would be maybe more nervous about. So yeah, too early to know for sure. Obviously no one knows, you know, how big or impactful tariffs will be, but you know, we've certainly spent plenty of time thinking about it and don't have any particular areas of concern.

speaker
David Sharf
JMP

Got it. And then, you know, just lastly, I'm gonna re-ask maybe Moshe's question on competition, just to make sure I'm clear. You know, obviously there's been a lot of private credit flowing into the personal loan market in the last 18 months, but that's more of the near prime sort of high teens APR up into the maybe one main, you know, 30% range. Has there been any new private capital flowing into kind of your tier of lines of credit personal loans, your credit tiers?

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

I mean, we have the same competitors we had five years ago, and you know, I think our growth rate's just been much higher than theirs, and so we're, you know, kind of as relative to their size, we're much bigger than them than we were five years ago, we were already bigger than them. So, you know, we haven't seen it. I think it's, you know, the debt markets have been good lately, so I think maybe some of our competitors have had a little easier time accessing them, but we have too, and that's certainly what helped fuel our growth over the last couple years.

speaker
David Sharf
JMP

Got it, great, thanks so much.

speaker
Operator

Yep. Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
John Hecht
Jefferies

Afternoon, guys, thanks for taking the questions. Congratulations on another strong year of growth. First question is just, just because, you know, maybe we haven't talked about this as much as kind of recently is the mix of new and recurring customers in both portfolios, the small business portfolio and the consumer portfolio. And I know sometimes you've given an update and sometimes you don't, but I'm wondering, you know, has that generally over the past year, has that shifted, and as you look to 25, where do you see the better, well, the better opportunity to contribute to growth? Is it lean into new customers or to harvest the, call it, the recurring customer? Hey,

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

John. So one reason we don't talk much about the new customer mix anymore is because it's just been remarkably stable for such a long period of time. And it's been, you know, plus or minus around 40% of originations for both portfolios, both consumer and small business for quite some time. So there's really not much to say about it. Like when we were growing back pre-COVID, it was a little different story. When you think about going forward, I think, you know, we'll continue our focus on attracting new customers into our franchise, you know, with our unit economics approach and our efficient marketing approach that we've always taken. And obviously we've built a lot of new customers over the years and we'll be focused on continuing to serve as returning customers. So I don't see a big shift in the new returning customer mix as you look at, you know, over time, plus or minus around 40 is probably what it will be for some time.

speaker
John Hecht
Jefferies

And then a second question is, Steve, you mentioned some cost of capital savings this year. And I think that's in spite of, you know, I guess, assuming, is it no rate cuts or just one rate cut? And then beyond that, maybe remind us the sensitivity around rates, you know, maybe so for each extra 25 basis point rate reduction, what would that present to potential EPS upside, you know, as it's settled in?

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, well, I was just giving you an example of my commentary that if the Fed did not cut again, 2025 cost of funds would come down about 50 basis points. In our guidance, we've assumed that there's one cut so I think, you know, we're below where the market would think it would be, but we think there's a cut at some point later in 2025. And the rule of thumb, just giving our floating rate mix, which is just under 50% of our total interest-sparing liabilities. So just on the floating rate piece alone, every 25 basis points of SOFR reduction would lead to 10 cents of EPS accretion, 12 months after that cut happens. So it's an annualized figure. So every quarter point is about 10 cents of EPS over a year.

speaker
Unknown
Participant

Okay,

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

super helpful, thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

The next question is from Vincent Cantik with BTIG. Please go ahead.

speaker
Vincent Cantik
BTIG

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions and great results. First, I want to go back to the small business and consumer discussion. So you sound very optimistic on both SMB and consumer, and so I just wanted to dig into that a little bit and talk about the relative strength between the two businesses when you're thinking about 2025. So for example, when you gave that 15% -over-year origination growth guidance for 2025, are both businesses similar growth or is one more so than the other? And then specifically on SMB, you talked about, you know, a lot of optimism there and the business is feeling optimistic. Maybe you could give us some color in what they're borrowing to invest for and in particular your comment about they're bypassing traditional banks. Just wondering what you're seeing there. Thank

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

you. Yeah, so let me take, you know, in terms of like what we see out through time. So I don't expect that we're gonna see a big shift in the mix between consumer and in our 15% guide between consumer and small business. We'll continue to see SMB at around 60% of the portfolio, a little bit over, but maybe a slow grind towards that. But as you know, we're kind of indifferent to that with the way our unit economics in our decisioning work, we go where we can generate acceptable returns and serve as many customers as we can. So that's kind of what you should expect when you think about that growth for 2025. And I think then the second question you're asking is about the use cases. Is that right, Vincent? Yeah, that's exactly it. Yeah, I mean, I think the use cases across, you know, the consumer are not gonna change, they haven't changed for a very long time. And I think for our small businesses, when they come to us, anything that they need as it relates to being able to cover cashflow needs. And there's a, we've got a lot of those listed in our investor deck, but it can be any number of, depending on the industries that we're serving, can be any number of things. But we don't think the use cases across the portfolios is gonna change in 2025.

speaker
Vincent Cantik
BTIG

Okay, that's great, thank you. And then switching gears to expenses going forward. And especially that it just seems like you have very good efficiency going forward. And I know you gave the revenue guidance for 2025 and then the UPS guide so we can back into expenses, but it does seem like your marketing efficiency was really good for the growth you had in originations. And then actually the O&T and G&A expenses were better than guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024. So I'm just wondering as you're achieving this growth rate, maybe exiting 2025, should we be expecting like better and better efficiency through the course of the year and then basically entering into 2026? Thank you.

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it's a great question. So I think when you think about our fixed costs, our G&A costs, you will continue to see us bring as percent of revenue that'll continue to scale and come down. You typically see in the first quarter of the year, you'll see it be a little more flat to how we exited the year, just because of the timing of merit increases on our workforce. And that'll show up in both O&T and G&A. But as you move through the year and exit 2025, you would expect O&T and G&A costs as a percent of revenue to be lower than where they were in Q4 of 2024, just because of the growth and scale of the business. And marketing, we tend to talk about marketing as a percent of revenue, but it's really originations that drive the marketing costs. So we would still expect it over a year to be around plus or minus 20% of revenue. And there could be a slow grind over time to a little bit lower, but again, we lean in and out of that as we see opportunities. So that's why we tend to say around 20%, a little lower in the first quarter, a little higher in the fourth quarter, and then sort of ranging in between during the year. Okay, great, that's very helpful. Thank

speaker
Vincent Cantik
BTIG

you.

speaker
Operator

The next question is from Kyle Joseph with Stevens. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kyle Joseph
Stevens

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Appreciate all the color you gave on first quarter and 25 guide. But as we enter the first quarter, just kind of walk us through, I know it's early, but any kind of what you're seeing on tax refunds and remind us of any sort of differences in terms of tax refund impacts on consumer versus small business and potential implications for guidance. Thanks.

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think it's a little early for the refund season. I mean, we would expect, there hasn't probably been like a typical refund season in a long time. It happens over a period of time, typically in Q1, and we would expect that to happen again. It's considered in our guide and the seasonality for the consumer business. And we don't expect there to be any difference on our SMB business as well from this year's tax season. So that's all sort of incorporated in our first quarter guide. We don't expect any surprises as it relates to tax refunds.

speaker
Unknown
Participant

Well, understood. That's it for me. Congrats on a good quarter, a good year. Thanks, guys.

speaker
Operator

Thanks, guys. Thank you. The next question is from John Rowan with Jani. Please go ahead.

speaker
John Rowan
Jani

Good evening, guys.

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Hey,

speaker
Operator

John.

speaker
John Rowan
Jani

So, David, you mentioned being more pleased with the evaluation of the stock. Just curious, you know, what do you have left under the repurchase authorization? Any change? Obviously, you said you committed to opportunistic repurchase. I mean, I assume we're still kind of episodic with repurchases throughout 2025. Is that correct?

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, I'll let Stephen give you the specific number on the repurchase authorization. I think we're happy directionally. We're not satisfied with where it is. And we still think the stock is undervalued. If you just look at our growth rate over the years relative to our PE ratio, you know, the PEG ratio is well under one, it's closer to a half. So we think there's still lots of opportunity in the stock price, which is why we continue to buy back stock. You know, we talk about buying it back opportunistically. That doesn't mean we're only buying it back when there's big drops. It means we buy more back when there's drops in the stock price. But we are regularly buying back stock because we do think that there's significant long-term value still there.

speaker
John Rowan
Jani

Okay, Steve, do you have the repurchase authorization left?

speaker
Steve Cunningham
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we have plenty. We have around 200 million left and of the 300 million for the rest of the year. So, and I mean, the authorization, you know, if we were, again, we are limited for the most part to 75% of GapNet income each quarter. You know, if we felt like there was a real opportunity and we had the earnings capacity, our board, I'm sure, would listen to our suggestions for reauthorization. So, as they've done really since 2017.

speaker
John Rowan
Jani

Okay, and then just last question. Obviously there was a shift in posture from the CFPB with a new acting director and pausing all new rules. Now, I know, I don't think there's any major rules that are kind of directly impacting your business right now, but is there anything that you're watching that, you know, if it doesn't get passed or gets delayed, et cetera, could have any, you know, impact on your business down the line?

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, there's two. One is 1071, the small business disclosure rule. It's not a big deal for us. We don't kind of care one way or the other. It's just a little bit of work that we'd rather not have to keep doing. And then there's the payment provisions of the small dollar rule that were to go into effect in March. Again, it kind of limits you to two debits without a reauthorization. It's not that different than our current practices today. So wasn't, you know, we do not anticipate significant impact from that at all, but certainly some work to implement and some work to make, to, you know, tweak our algorithms to deal with the new provisions. So, you know, if those don't happen, not necessarily a major positive benefit, but just gives our teams more opportunity to focus on, you know, kind of growth in other areas.

speaker
Vincent Cantik
BTIG

All right, thank you.

speaker
Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Fisher for any closing remarks.

speaker
David Fisher
Chief Executive Officer

I appreciate everyone joining our call today, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Thanks and have a good evening.

speaker
Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-