Edgewell Personal Care Company

Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call

2/8/2022

speaker
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Edgewell's first quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your questions, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Goff, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
speaker
Chris Goff
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for Edgewell's first quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings call. With me this morning are Rod Little, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Sullivan, our Chief Financial Officer. Rod will kick off the call, then hand it over to Dan to discuss our results. and full year 22 outlook before we transition to Q&A. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, www.edgewell.com. During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructuring, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, category value future plans for return of capital to shareholders, and more. Any such statements are forward-looking statements which reflect our current views with respect to future events. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30th, 2021, as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the investor relations section of our website. Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Rod.
speaker
Rod Little
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us on our first quarter earnings call. As you saw in the results we posted earlier today, the improving underlying consumer demand that we witnessed in many of our categories as we exited fiscal 2021 continued in the first quarter. As the category strengthened, so too did our market share results. In the quarter, we grew organic net sales 2.5%, with growth coming from all three segments of the business, led by sun care, women's shave, feminine care, and men's grooming. Importantly, our organic growth was driven by both volume and price gains in the quarter. We also had growth across all geographic regions, and importantly, started to see the first signs of recovery in important markets in Asia and Latin America. Our aggregate market share in North America increased in the quarter, led by sun care, wet ones, and disposable razors. In international markets, we were pleased to see continued share gains in Japan and in most Latin American markets. In addition to our strong top-line performance, we also executed well on the bottom line, delivering 42 cents of adjusted earnings per share and 69.7 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. despite significant cost headwinds resulting from increased inflationary pressure across many commodities, freight, and distribution costs, as well as increasing COVID-19-related impacts on our labor force. These challenges impacted our ability to meet elevated demand in the quarter, particularly in women's branded shave, shave preps, and feminine care. Our organization is working relentlessly to mitigate the impacts of higher costs and supply constraints on the business while remaining focused on executing against our strategic priorities. Dan will take you through more details on the supply chain environment and the impact on our business in a moment. I'm also pleased with how our team designed and now is executing our price increases, thoughtfully balancing a strategy of price leadership with fast followership reflective of category, brand, and market. And we will continue to explore further opportunities as inflationary pressures remain at all-time high levels. Let me now pivot to the progress we're making on some of our key strategic priorities, including the investment in our people and brands in support of our goal to deliver sustained top-line growth. Our performance this quarter is again a testament to our team members who have executed with excellence in an increasingly challenging environment. As you've heard me say before, we've built a people-first culture, and we continue to prioritize the safety and well-being of all of our teammates. The protocols we initiated nearly two years ago have been refined and augmented as the pandemic has evolved, ensuring a safe and effective work environment across all of our offices, manufacturing, and distribution facilities. We've made the COVID-19 vaccine readily available to all employees through vaccine clinics, some of which have been onsite, and offered paid time off for employees to get vaccinated. Conscious of the impact the pandemic has had on our employees, we've implemented several initiatives to date in support of their mental health and wellbeing. And finally, in 2021, we also rewarded our teammates for their dedication and contributions to our success during the pandemic with multiple cash bonuses awarded to our frontline workers, and a one-time cash award for all hourly and salaried corporate individuals who previously were not bonus eligible. At Edgewell, we value our teammates and remain committed to our people-first objective. In addition to the investments in our team members, we also made meaningful investments in our brands and in key markets, which contributed to strong sales and share growth in the quarter in two important areas of the business. the SunCare segment, and the Japan market. In SunCare, we have already secured meaningful new club channel distribution and compelling shelf gains in mass, both in aisle and secondary displays. And we're encouraged by the pace of recovery we're seeing in several international markets. These strong distribution gains are a direct outcome of consecutive seasons of share gains in the United States. And when combined with our expertise in procurement and formulation, position us well for the critical sun season ahead. And in Japan, our second largest country based on sales, the investments we've made in the men's hydro relaunch drove increased shelf presence and share gains. The men's hydro relaunch in Japan is just one example of the innovation we're bringing to consumers this year. In North America, a rebranded Schick portfolio will be on shelf later this month, reinforcing both the authentic and emotional connection between the brand and our consumers and the unparalleled functional product benefits we provide as part of men's daily shave regimen. In Suncare, Banana Boat is targeting the unmet needs in our core sport and kids franchises with sport and kids roll-on SPF 60 and new 100% mineral sea spray. While Hawaiian Traffic is launching a unique mineral powder brush made with 100% mineral actives that mattifies while protecting your skin in a convenient brush format. And in men's grooming, we're combining the inherent equity and credibility of the Cremo brand with the unmatched blade technology of Edgewell to launch a new premium razor to compete in the more premium end of the category. These are just a few examples of the commitment we have made to increasing our capabilities in the areas of brand building and consumer-centric innovation. And I'm personally excited about the progress we are making. And finally, in addition to the organic investments we're making, we completed our acquisition of Billy in the quarter, adding the fast-growing, digitally native, leading DTC brand to our strong and differentiated portfolio of women's shaving brands, including Intuition, Shek Hydro Silk, and Skintimate. And the timing couldn't be better, as Billy has just begun its national retail launch exclusively in Walmart. By the end of February, Billy's shave essentials, including the starter kit, travel case, blade refills, and a new whip shave cream, will be in over 4,000 Walmart stores and fully supported by in-aisle and in-cap signage and display. Edgewell is now playing the role of disruptor to the category at retail, combining a uniquely strong brand with expertise in distribution and retail execution. So in summary, we are seeing a healthier demand environment across many of our categories, particularly in the United States. And we are encouraged by the recovery beginning in other regions of the world. Second, with improving demand environment, we remain committed to investing in our brands and executing on our strategic priorities. Third, our teams remain focused and agile, even as the operating environment becomes increasingly challenging. As we continue to see heightened cost pressures across many commodity categories, as well as higher wages and transportation costs, our teams will continue to focus on service while executing our productivity and efficiency efforts to help mitigate some of these cost headwinds while ensuring our product remains available for our customers. Fourth, we are executing our price increases well while continuing to evaluate further price measures in certain markets. And finally, as evidenced by our dividend and share buyback execution, we remain committed to a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation and returning value to shareholders. And now I'd like to ask Dan to take you through our first quarter results and also provide details on our outlook for fiscal 2022.
speaker
Chris
Thank you, Rod, and good morning, everyone. As Rod discussed, this was a good start to the year with our top and bottom line performance in line with expectations driven by improved demand and good execution by our teams, despite increasing supply chain challenges and mounting cost headwinds. Additionally, we continue to make good progress against our strategic initiatives, which help to drive more predictable top-line growth and enable disciplined commercial investment. Importantly, we delivered productivity savings in the quarter that were in line with expectations, despite the deteriorating macro supply environment. a true testament to the organization's capabilities to both structurally address costs and continue to navigate heightened supply chain challenges. For the quarter, organic net sales increased 2.5%. Adjusted gross margin decreased 140 basis points, or 90 basis points organically. AMP spend increased $5 million and 90 basis points in rate of sale. Adjusted SG&A improved 110 basis points in rate of sales. Adjusted EPS decreased 2%. However, core adjusted EPS grew over 9% in the quarter. And we deployed $33 million of capital through dividends and share repurchases. Before reviewing our detailed results, I would like to provide some additional color on our operations and the continuing inflationary environment. Our industry continues to face unprecedented supply chain disruption, increased bottlenecks, and accelerated inflation, with little signs of easing in the near term. Tight labor markets remain increasingly challenging, in part made worse by the fast-spreading Omicron variant, and supply and demand imbalances and overall capacity constraints remain broad and sustained across the supply chain. conditions this quarter could best be described as volatile, particularly in certain commodities such as specialty chemicals, packaging, and metals. Freight and transportation markets also worsened in the quarter, reflective of continued infrastructure challenges and heightened diesel cost inflation. As we discussed last quarter, our organization is working relentlessly to mitigate the impacts of higher costs and supply constraints on the business. and we continue to take aggressive steps to stabilize supply and mitigate these cost headwinds. In the face of growing labor constraints, we've increased and diversified our efforts to secure the labor pool needed to support our demand outlook. Rod already shared some of the steps we've taken to further support our employee base. Despite these efforts, we did see sporadic supply shortages in certain categories, most notably in femcare and shave preps, and to a lesser degree, women's shave. And our teams are taking the right actions to mitigate the potential impact going forward, including broadened sourcing efforts, increased upfront raw material buys, staggered production scheduling and overtime utilization, and alternative transportation strategies in the U.S. and across Europe. We're also tactically building inventory levels through the first half of the year, where possible, to ensure product availability and improve service levels to our customers. Now I'll turn to the detailed results for the quarter. As mentioned, organic net sales increased 2.5%, equally driven by price and volume gains. Most of the realized price increases were attributable to femcare and wet ones in North America, and to a lesser degree, wet shave in international. Importantly, the majority of the positive impact that will be realized from pricing occurs as the year evolves. On a two-year stack, total company organic net sales increased just over 1% in the quarter versus the same period last year, with growth in both North America and international markets. Our e-commerce business saw strong results, increasing by over 9% in the quarter, on top of over 40% growth during Q1 a year ago. In the quarter, our total portfolio gained 30 basis points of market share in the U.S., led by gains in sun and wet ones and flat share results in femcare. Share results in wet shave were consistent with 52-week trends. Looking deeper into our segments, wet shave organic net sales increased 2% in the quarter, largely driven by growth in women's systems, disposables, and private brands. Our women's systems business continues to be the primary catalyst for growth, with organic net sales increasing 9%, driven by intuition as well as private label, which grew 48% in the quarter, despite cycling 51% growth last year in Q1. International wet shave grew over 4%, as women's systems organic net sales grew nearly 12% for the quarter. Disposables organic net sales increased about 5 percent and gained share, while men's systems organic net sales decreased 6 percent. For the third consecutive quarter, U.S. razors and blades category consumption increased, growing 4.8 percent. The category growth in the quarter was seen across men's and women's systems and disposables. For the 13-week period, market share for the Schick franchise declined 100 basis points. driven mostly by declines in men's and women's branded shave, while disposable share grew 70 basis points, driven by her men's business, which saw strong performance at Walmart and the benefit from distribution gains at Walgreens and Sam's. Sun and skin care organic net sales increased about 2%, driven by strong global sun care results and improved men's grooming results. Sun care organic net sales in North America increased 51%, while international organic sales increased 27%, led by initial consumption recovery in Latin America. In the U.S., the sun category increased 44% for the quarter, aided by better weather and increased travel. Hawaiian Tropic and Banana Boat both outperformed the category with over 70% growth and collectively gained 320 basis points of market share. Our strong execution and prominent on-shelf position drove 450 basis points of share gains in the quarter at Walmart, and we saw sequentially improved results across both the drug and grocery channels, where we also delivered strong share gains. Men's grooming organic nut sales increased 8% in the quarter, led by Cremo's strong growth of nearly 20% on the heels of excellent holiday execution, as the category was up 27%. Wet One's organic net sales decreased 41% in the quarter as compared to an increase of over 110% in Q1 of last year, representing two-year stack growth of nearly 13%. Category consumption declined 71% versus a year ago, lapping COVID-driven sales. Wet One's consumption declines of 17% was significantly better than the category declines, leading to 55% share of the category. Femcare organic net sales increased about 5%. Playtech Sport continued to gain share in the quarter, reflective of new product launches and stronger brand support, offsetting declines in the carefree and legacy brands. Femcare category consumption during the quarter grew about 11% in the U.S., and our portfolio consumption growth was largely in line with the category for the second consecutive quarter. Now, moving down the P&L. growth margin rate on an adjusted basis decreased 140 basis points compared to the prior year, inclusive of 50 basis points of inorganic headwinds, as gross inflationary pressures of about 400 basis points were only partially mitigated by just over 100 basis points of favorable pricing, promotional efficiency, and mix, and about 200 basis points of productivity savings. A&P expense increased $5 million this quarter and was 10 percent of net sales, reflecting increases in support of the hydro relaunch in Japan, sun execution across the globe, and holiday programs in grooming. SG&A including amortization expense was $96.9 million, or 20.9% of net sales. Adjusted SG&A declined 110 basis points as a percent of net sales due to lower incentive and fringe benefit costs. Adjusted operating income was $46.7 million, compared to $49 million last year, as lower gross margin and higher A&P costs were only partially offset by lower adjusted SG&A costs. GAAP diluted net earnings per share were 20 cents compared to 32 cents in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. And adjusted earnings per share were 42 cents compared to 43 cents in the prior year period, and inclusive of a four cent negative impact from the Billy acquisition. This four cents reflects the impact of deferred profit as a consequence of the timing of profit recognized on sales to Billy, as well as higher amortization costs. Core EPS grew over 9% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $69.7 million compared to $72.2 million in the prior year. Net cash used in operating activities for Q1 was $79 million, a $3.5 million improvement over the same quarter last year. The timing of interest payments and seasonal working capital build related to SunCare results in a Q1 cash outflow. We ended the quarter with $240 million in cash on hand, access to the $221 million undrawn portion of our credit facility, and a net debt leverage ratio of about 3.3 times. This brings me to the topic of capital allocation. We remain disciplined in how we are deploying capital and executing in a thoughtful and balanced manner. Last quarter, we announced our intention to put our healthy excess cash to work and repurchase approximately $300 million in shares over the next three fiscal years. And in the quarter, our repurchases totaled $24.5 million. In addition, we continued our quarterly dividend payout and declared another cash dividend of 15 cents for the first quarter. Turning to our outlook for fiscal 2022. We are reiterating our outlook for the core Edgewell business that was the basis for our original outlook and only updating our estimates to reflect the inclusion of 10 months of the Billy business and the additional negative impact of currency translation. As we look to the remainder of the year, we're encouraged by the improving demand environment we see across many of our categories and geographies and are well positioned as a result of the distribution gains discussed last quarter. most notably in sun and women's shave. However, we're cognizant that we are operating in a more volatile environment than previously contemplated. Beyond the cost pressures associated with rampant commodity and wage inflation, we are also navigating mounting complexity across the supply chain. And in the near term, we see little signs of easing. Before turning to our detailed outlook, I want to provide a summary of the impact of now including acquisition of the Billy brand in fiscal 2022. We expect BILI to add approximately 400 basis points of net incremental growth to our reported net sales for the fiscal year. We refer to incremental sales as the net impact of BILI sales, both DTC and to retail, less the intercompany shipments that Edgeware will make that were previously expected to be third-party sales. This change from expected third-party sales to intercompany shipments also creates a timing difference with respect to gross profit recognition versus our original outlook. And we estimate this amount to be a headwind of approximately $4.1 million. Incremental amortization costs associated with the intangible assets related to the acquisition will be approximately $9 million this fiscal year. In total, we anticipate that the acquisition will be diluted to adjusted EPS by approximately 19 cents, which reflects 13 cents per share related to the increased amortization costs and 6 cents per share associated with the profit deferral. For the fiscal year, we continue to anticipate low single-digit organic net sales growth with similar growth rates in half one and half two. As a reminder, Billy third-party sales are excluded from the organic growth calculation. Reported sales are now anticipated to increase by mid-single digits, including 400 basis points net from Billy and partially mitigated by an expected additional 50 basis points headwind from currency. The Billy sales are expected to phase somewhat ratably over the remaining three quarters. As we look to gross margin, we now anticipate approximately 200 basis points year-over-year declines, primarily reflective of the heightened inflationary pressures and the overall challenging supply chain environment. Year-over-year gross margin declines will be more pronounced in Q2 before moderating somewhat in the back end of half two as our productivity programs scale and price realization increases. This outlook largely assumes spot prices across the majority of the commodity basket as well as in transportation and warehousing. We will continue to invest in support of our brands and key markets, and with the addition of the Billy brand, expect A&P spending to be largely in line with last year as a rate of sale. Adjusted operating profit margin is now expected to contract approximately 130 basis points year over year, reflecting the deleveraging effect of including the Billy sales, increased amortization costs, the headwind associated with the profit deferral, and additional negative currency effects. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $357 to $377 million. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be in the range of $2.74 to $3.02, reflecting increased amortization expense in addition to the profit deferral and currency impacts. We continue to expect to generate about two thirds of our full year adjusted EPS in half two of the fiscal year. With respect to our share repurchase, our outlook only includes the expected share repurchases required to offset dilution. The benefit to EPS from additional share repurchases transacted over the course of the year have not been contemplated in our outlook and will be additive to EPS. And finally, free cash flow conversion is expected to be approximately 100% of gap net earnings. For more information related to our fiscal 2022 outlook, I would refer you to the press release that we issued earlier this morning. And with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.
speaker
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning.
speaker
Chris Carey
Morning, Chris. Hi, Chris. Can you just, you know, talk about sustainability of the market share gains that you're seeing in the SunCare business? obviously some interesting statistics around, you know, share at some of your key retailers. And can you also maybe expand on how you're thinking about how incremental some of these, you know, incremental shelf wins are going to be for the business this year, Walmart, Costco, and potentially how that's factoring into your thinking for the back half of And maybe if I could just sneak in on the sun business as well, just all in the context of sun, the supply chain issues. I know you didn't mention it, but just confidence that you're going to have adequate supply going into the peak summer season.
speaker
Rod Little
So on sun, we feel good, Chris, is the headline on what's to come. we like the planogram changes. We've talked about that. We have new incremental distribution in the club channel. We have higher quality distribution across the balance of food drug mass. We launched hawaiiantropic.com a year ago, and we're activating online, not only with our own channels, but also with people like Amazon in there. So we have a really nice distribution footprint. We have good innovation coming on Banana Boat as we look at kids and family, the sport franchise. We have refresh on the packaging on Hawaiian Tropics that will start to phase in throughout the season. So really solid distribution outcomes, really solid innovation pipeline. And then as importantly, upstream, our teams have done an amazing job of procuring the raw materials and the ingredients to be available throughout the season. And so we've planned for a big season. We're covered on the supply chain on that front. We do most everything in-house. We control the manufacturing. We're not reliant on third parties. And so what we've seen in the early part of sun season, mind you, In quarter one, it's only 6% of the season transacts in the quarter just finished. So the best of what sun can do for us, we think, is to come.
speaker
Chris Carey
Okay, thanks for the perspective.
speaker
Chris Goff
Thank you, Chris. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
Thank you.
speaker
Chris Goff
Chris, did you have another question? I'm sorry.
speaker
Chris Carey
Just this one, if I could, if I'm still live. Okay, thanks a lot. Just on the concepts of, you know, obviously, you know, the impact of ability coming through in the earnings outlook, but also, you know, flowing through the currency impact to earnings as well. So I guess, you know, from here, and you talked about a volatile operating environment, what are the levers that you have at your disposal now in order to maybe preserve where earnings have been reset? Is that savings program? From a pricing standpoint, I wonder if you have any incremental thoughts. I know that you want to be surgical and shave, and you've already done some things in Sun and have the Femcare pricing, but how could that factor into potentially offsetting another move and in cost and then, you know, just, um, it's all related to this concept of offsets, but just from a, from a, from a share purchase, um, standpoint, you know, clearly still only, um, factoring, you know, offsetting dilution, but you do have a, a pretty sizable buyback program. And, you know, um, if I was at the pre-market, the stock is, is, is implied down. So, you know, any thoughts you have there as well. Thanks so much.
speaker
Chris
Yeah. Hey, Chris, it's Dan. Thanks for the question. I'll, uh, try to take it. There's a lot there, I think, certainly. And you picked up on it from our remarks. We were certainly operating in a more challenging environment than we had initially contemplated. I think that's that's for sure. We've said now that we anticipate, you know, about 500 basis points of macro inflationary pressure on COGS. That's up about 100 basis points from what we said a quarter ago. And we said that that'll translate likely into about a 200 basis point year-over-year decline in margin. So the takeaway there is we do have a solid line of sight to some meaningful offsets, right? And so as I break those down, you know, first and foremost for us, it's in COGS, as it always is. And our approach here is twofold, right? One, we're continuing to look at what we already do really well. We deliver 200 basis points of productivity savings In the quarter, we're looking at the opportunity to accelerate existing cost savings programs to bring forward initiatives that were perhaps timed for later in the year. But at the same time, we're doing significant work to stabilize the environment and meet demand, right? So we have to continue to balance that. I think we're really good at that, and that will continue. On the revenue side of the house, I think you're right. If you look at how we took price or how we thought about price, there are examples where we have taken broad brush price increases, and we've talked about those around wet ones, around femcare, to a lesser degree, wet shave in certain international markets. And those prices are now priced in, and we've either begun to feel the effects of that in international markets, or have been feeling the effects of that, for example, in wet ones. In the rest of the portfolio, we applied more of a surgical approach, right? Where within categories, within brands, within markets, we thought about it very differently across shave and so on and grooming and PBG and even preps for that matter. So as we're reassessing, we are certainly considering both scenarios. We're considering situations where we did go up in price at category level and is there opportunity to implement further price. We're also looking at where we have been more surgical and thinking about areas where perhaps we haven't taken price where we can reconsider given the environment, given what we've seen so far in elasticities. And then the last thing I would say is, you know, beyond just frontline price, we continue to make great progress in our efforts to really better understand the promotional environment, promotional intensity, return on promotional dollars. And that was actually a contributor to what we saw in Q1. And we expect that promo rationalization and just good effective spend will also be a tailwind for us to help offset this environment that we're in.
speaker
Chris Goff
Thank you, Chris. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Nick Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
speaker
spk01
Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just two questions from me. Dan, is there any way you can quantify, you know, the impact out-of-stocks had on growth in the quarter? If there's any quantification there. And then I guess the broader question, and this is just kind of a longer-term question on productivity. You know, I was, you know, looking at the church's white analysts, so I was struck again by by their revenue per employee, but also looking at Edgewell's revenue per employee. I think the way it's on the chart, it was 303 for Edgewell, and Church and Dwight was over 1,000. And the average was closer to like 500, 600. And I just wondered if you could comment on that. You guys have done such a great job of productivity over the last couple of years. How much do you think there's left in the tank when you really think about the bigger picture?
speaker
Chris
Yeah, good morning, Nick. Thanks for the questions. So on your first one, you know, can we estimate sort of the out-of-stock impact? You know, there were sort of two headwinds in the quarter that I think are worth calling out just to understand magnitude. You know, one is the drag wet ones had on organic growth for the period, right? So we produced a 2.5% organic growth rate, and wet ones was about a 250 basis point drag in the quarter. Now, we talked about the category being down 70%. And we know that's a category that is still finding a normal water level, if you will, given what it's cycling in COVID. So that's the first item. The second item, more to your point, tough to truly estimate, right? Tough to truly estimate what demand was out there that we couldn't meet. We know in the two most prevalent areas around femcare, where we had labor shortages, and in our shave prep business, where we had trouble with, you know, commodities and raw material, that there was certainly a line of sight to four to six million just there alone in those two small businesses of ours. That likely adds up to, you know, somewhere a point and a half, two percent in organics. Beyond that, tough to understand and really break down, you know, sort of what demand was unmet, but we can certainly call out those two pieces. On your second question around productivity, look, I think You know, what's left in the tank is a common question we get asked on the heels of the fuel program and the success we saw there. And we have said publicly that both in COGS and in our core SG&A environment, we see meaningful savings opportunities left to go. And if you go back to our investor day, we talked about, you know, $125 million of savings over the next two years. In COGS, we delivered 200 basis points of productivity savings in the quarter, and you're starting to see that work now shift. You're starting to see gains from automation. You're starting to see gains from the next level of procurement activity, along with the continued focus on eliminating waste and really being intolerant to waste across our facility. So I'm quite confident in that team's ability simply based on demonstrated effect that there is certainly more to do there in productivity.
speaker
Rod Little
Nick, I just had two points. You're seeing the G&A leverage show up. So regardless of what statistics look like, revenue per head, what have you, at the end of the day, we've got to have leverage in the P&L as we grow now, and we're confident we will grow. We've got to see the leverage come through. You're seeing that in the quarter, right, with the G&A leverage showing up. Do you have a data point that I'll give you that is interesting it's back to your question around out of stocks in the quarter it was it was the perfect storm with omicron hitting and coming on top of a time where the labor environment was already very difficult we had five to ten percent depending on the factory of our hourly manufacturing workforce out as you got toward the end of december with either Omicron positive sick or needing to isolate and quarantine out due to a close exposure. And so that situation coming on top of already tight labor environment drove the service outage that Dan referenced before. And, again, we're not alone. That's a national thing, and I think it has a similar impact in our European plans. The good news is, as we look at that today, that's in the rearview mirror. We're back down to what I would call just normal going levels. And so we feel really good about the go-forward look in service and availability.
speaker
Operator
Great.
speaker
spk01
Thanks.
speaker
Chris Goff
Thank you, Nick. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
speaker
Jason English
Hey, good morning, folks. Thanks for stopping me in. Quick math question, I guess. You've got Billy in the P&L now. A substantial amount of the COGS for Billy would seem to have already been in your P&L since you were manufacturing the razors for them and selling them to them. As a result, our back-of-the-envelope math suggests you should be getting somewhere between a 50 to 100 basis points margin mixed benefit at gross margin line, which, if right, would imply that your gross margin cut of 100 to 120 basis points today on the underlying basis would be quite a bit higher, because obviously that reduction should include the benefit from Billy. Is that conceptually right and mathematically, directionally correct?
speaker
Chris
Hey, Jason. Good morning. It's Dan. I'd be very careful assuming the lion's share of costs were already in the P&L. If you think about their business in two ways, one, you know, we were shipping blades, obviously, but there's other costs involved, other products involved, there's assembly, there's distribution. So there are other costs within their core business beyond, you know, let's say our cogs as a supplier. And then secondly, obviously you have this shift to retail, which is a slightly different margin profile to it as well. So I wouldn't – I'm not going to go back through your math point for point, but I wouldn't assume that there's margin accretion here simply because we've been already holding or recognizing all of the COGS. That's not true.
speaker
Jason English
Okay. That is helpful. I'll go back and scrub those numbers again a little bit further. And you were asked earlier, like, where is the offset to the higher inflation? I think you said within COGS, but – but you're lowering gross margin pretty much commensurate with the higher inflation. So it looks like in the near term, you're not getting the offset in COGS. Where is the offset coming? Because you're saying on an underlying basis, you're still holding your earnings outlook flat. It must be somewhere within SG&A. What specifically are you finding? Where specifically are you finding more efficiency or more leverage?
speaker
Chris
Yeah, so I think a couple of things. One, on the COGS side, I think, As I mentioned in my comments, we continue to look at all aspects of the program we have in place and where we can accelerate that and where we can bring incremental savings into the year. That work is ongoing, as is the revenue work that we're doing that I described. So the teams are literally in the process of that work. On the cost side, I think, absolutely, we have to evaluate all aspects of both overhead and commercial spend. Now, we have to be really careful here Because as we've said many times, we're at a very, very important moment for the business. We have seen the impact of what really good investment behind the brands and really good investment behind organizational capabilities do for us and the role that it has played as a catalyst over the last 18 months in growth. So we have no intention here on the spend lines, if you will, to take a step sideways, let alone backwards. That's a fact. Having said that, absolutely, we're going to evaluate the spend. With A&P, we're going to continue to look at effectiveness and make sure every dollar we put to use delivers returns for us and really be thoughtful about both our A&P investment and the timing and phasing and how we think about overheads in this environment. I think that's something we certainly should be doing and will do.
speaker
Rod Little
Jason, I would add to this, we're not going to go cut anything that we think is important capability to win in the future or part of the strategic narrative around brand building repositioning as we build our brands and the equities moving forward. There's an element of this that is also price revenue management related. Dan referenced that. That's a big place we want to go. I don't think the pricing narrative is done here. A lot of this inflation has hit in the last 30 to 60 days of the quarter just finished. And so it's now opened up the opportunity with that information to go look at pricing again across the portfolio. And so we'll do that. And I think the other thing we'll really focus on is, and where all the value in this business is over time, is in a healthy, accretive, top-line performance, whether that be price or volume. We're really focused on driving a better top-line outcome here as part of the equation as well.
speaker
Jason English
Okay. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
speaker
Operator
Thank you, Jason. Operator, next question, please. The next question comes from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
speaker
Jason
Thanks. Good morning. Morning. Hi, Bill. First, just on Billy, can you just help us understand on the rollout to Walmart where that shelf space is coming? Is it all kind of promotional, in-cap, center cap type stuff, or are you – getting permanent placement in the wet shave aisle? And if it's the second, where is that coming from? Is that coming from your existing portfolio or is that coming from other competitors?
speaker
Rod Little
We are really excited about Billy overall, Bill. If you look at the profile of the business, we acquired it $90 million, trailing 12, all transacted online. So rapid growth. The impact to us incrementally, as we call out today, is roughly 400 basis points on top of our organic sales in the year we're in now. And as part of that, the big building block that comes on top of direct-to-consumer is the Walmart launch. And if you look at Walmart, effectively a national rollout. It's obviously different in a superstore format versus a neighborhood store, but across their entire network, there is permanent in-aisle fixed display. It looks beautiful. It has stopping power when you walk down the aisle. It's the cleanest, most beautiful part of the women's shave section now, so it's permanent. And in addition, there's in-cap that comes on top of that on secondary display with full signage and in-cap coverage there. So it's high-quality distribution, it's beautiful, and it's there throughout the year.
speaker
Jason
That's great. I appreciate that. And then separate kind of differently on wet ones, can you kind of give us an idea of what Omicron did to the category over the past three, four months in terms of, getting it back to whatever normal looks like for that category? I mean, did it accelerate the path to normal? Did people not really come back to wipes with Omicron like they did for Delta or prior versions? And, you know, and are we any closer to kind of getting to what normal looks like?
speaker
Rod Little
We are close to what new normal looks like, Bill. This quarter just printed here is really the last quarter of where you had two to 300% growth in the prior year period, 300 in this case. So you're lapping 300% growth, which was really the rush you saw around the spike in December a year ago, November, December a year ago. And so as we come now to Omicron and as people either have their supplies or stocks or have become comfortable with their new routine in this. Omicron was effectively a non-event, I would say. And so as we look forward, we start to cycle more normal growth. That big peak is behind us now, so we're lapping more normal quarters as we go forward. The other important point here, not to lose it, we still feel really good about wet ones in the category. It's up double digits on a stack basis versus pre-pandemic. And so we do expect the category to continue to grow. And we've got a 55% market share position here. We're the leader. And we're seeing the shelf consolidate back to what the set looked like pre-pandemic with people that came in to try to fill the supply gap coming out of the sets. Great. Thanks for the color. Thank you. Thank you, Bill. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
The next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
speaker
Kevin Grundy
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Two for me, if I could. First one for Dan on guidance, and then Rod, maybe just building a little bit on the prior question on Billy. So, Dan, pretty simple, I guess. First on the guidance, just bridging where you were in November when you guys commented that Billy was to be slightly positive to cash earnings per share. And then the guidance is, I think this is building on Mr. English's question, the commentary is, The guidance just simply reflects the transaction and slightly worse FX, but we have EBITDA moving lower. We have free cash flow moving lower. Maybe there's some nuance within the Billy transaction. Can you just bridge that for me where you were in November with the slightly positive comments to cash earnings versus where we are today?
speaker
Chris
Yeah, absolutely. Good morning. So, look, let's unpack the Billy element first because as we look at our guidance, When you exclude, you know, the technical changes we made related to the Billy transaction and the incremental currency headwinds, our core outlook remains intact, right? That's unchanged. We talked about the FX piece that we see an additional $0.05 of headwinds here. So then it really comes down to the Billy piece. And you've got $0.19 of anticipated full-year impacts. driven by two things, Kevin. One is the amortization of the intangible. We talked about that last time. We obviously couldn't have predicted what that would be. It's obviously a non-cash charge. That's 13 cents of the 19 cents tied up in this year one of Billy. That obviously was not in our initial guide. And then the second piece is really a timing and a comparison piece, which is the impact of deferred profit, right? So if you think about our initial outlook, we would have contemplated Billy as a customer. We would have had 12 months of gross margin on sales to that customer in our outlook. And now with Billy coming on board with 10 months of business, not 12, and with an assumed 60-day inventory turn, you know, some of those previously thought of as sales become shipments. and some of that profit on those shipments gets deferred, purely timing, purely the mechanics of the transaction. So $0.13 related to the amortization charge, $0.06 related to the impact of deferred profit versus what was in our initial guideline.
speaker
Kevin Grundy
Okay. All right. I can take some of that offline. And, Rod, just building on Billy, just taking a step back, I think the compound annual growth rate over the past few years has been 50%. Maybe you don't want to comment on specific brands in your outlook, but just for our modeling purposes, what is a reasonable growth rate as you think about the Walmart distribution? Perhaps you can put some parameters around that. ACV or total points of distribution and where you think that can go as you sort of roll out Into into Walmart I can pass it on.
speaker
Rod Little
Thanks Y'all I'll start Kevin and go to Dan if he wants to add some commentary Look Billy's got a high CAGR because it's four years old You go from zero to ninety million trailing twelve and four years you get a high CAGR all online and Different than some other M&A we've looked at in the past, this is timed nearly perfectly for us because we are just starting the retail rollout last month, January of 22, with what we think is the premier women's brand product. in this more value-oriented space just around price point. It's very additive to our portfolio with our Schick Hydro Silk and the Intuition brands. It's a differentiated add to our portfolio where we had a hole. We believe over time this brand has legs to be everywhere. and to be a big part of our portfolio going forward. It's also incremental to us around who the consumer demographic is. It skews younger, it skews more diverse, and so it's a nice add-in to our portfolio. And the final thing I'll say before I throw it to Dan is we have lacked access to good consumer data. They have 3 million customers in their file. And so this is also a breakthrough for us around not only digital capability, but also consumer data.
speaker
Chris
Yeah, just maybe building on the math. So what we said at the time of the announcement was it was a $90 million TTM business top line growing at about 30%. Of course, that was just a DTC business at the time. If you fast forward to today, and again, recognizing we have 10 months of their business in our P&L, You know, we've said it'll add about 400 basis points in reported sales. So, you know, you're in the $85 to $90 million range. Now, there are two elements to that. There are the Billy third-party sales, both retail and DTC, which we are estimating is in the $105, $110 million range. And then you have the headwinds of shipments that were in our initial plan that now become intercompany shipments, and that's plus or minus 20, 25 million. So you put the two together, you land in the 85 to $90 million range as we think about the business over the 10 months of fiscal 22. Now, the fundamentals for this business are therefore twofold. One, we are going to continue to invest in DTC growth, customer acquisition, retention, basket growth, et cetera, for all the reasons Rod described, then we're going to execute flawlessly at walmart so you're really leveraging the expertise of the billy team um on the first element and then obviously the retail expertise of edgewell on the second you know the exact cadence and pace and splits and how quickly it scales you know that obviously we'll learn our way into in 2022 but it's super attractive growth profile And I think just looking at the Walmart end of it compares very, very favorably to recent launches in the space. Okay.
speaker
Kevin Grundy
Very good. Thank you both. Good luck.
speaker
Chris Goff
Thank you. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks, Kevin. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
speaker
Raymond James
Great. Thank you. My question is on pricing. If you could talk a little bit about what you've done of late, whether you think there needs to be more to offset cost inflation, any view on what competition has done, and whether there have been any moves or lack thereof by others that make it more challenging for you to put your plans in place. And, you know, you've slugged it out quite a bit to improve your positioning. As inflation continues, how do you sort of think about balancing the desire to offset cost inflation by taking price with the potential implications it may have on markets here? Thanks so much.
speaker
Rod Little
Yeah, good morning, Olivia. Rod here. I'll start and then flip it to Dan. Look, on pricing, I think one of the things I learned earlier in my career at Procter & Gamble is pricing. Pricing is really important to creating value over time and structural profitability in the business. So we will always look to take pricing where it's warranted, where it's either warranted by innovation, our cost that needs to be shared on and passed on. We'll look to do that. Where we have leadership with a leading share position, we will lead pricing under that scenario where it's warranted. Where we're not a leader, we'll follow. We play more of a follower role. And we look to fast follow. I think we said that in our prepared comments. That's the strategy. That's the approach. All this through a context over time of we want to maintain and build our share and become more competitive over time. Price is obviously a piece of that. So we never want to be disadvantaged. We've got prices. strategies by brand that we lay out that's part of the overall strategy of building that business and growing share over time. But there is an opportunistic piece to the pricing environment we live in today that we need to go get for sure.
speaker
Chris
And the only thing I would add, Olivia, I think just two comments. One, just a reminder, I know you know this, but price is not the only lever that we have here to offset this 500 basis points of inflation. It is a lever. It is not the only lever. And I won't go back through the comments on productivity, but we feel really good about our ability to continue to take cost out there. You know, on the price front, to Rod's point, we've been super thoughtful. We've executed extremely well with real precision, both in how we think about frontline price and also how we think about promotional intensity and effectiveness. I think you have to look at those together. Having said that, the world continues to change, and the teams are actually quite optimistic and recognize there's more to do here, and so we're back at it, looking category by category, looking brand by brand. Nothing is off the table on price. Obviously, we won't get into the specifics here for competitive reasons, but we recognize that there's more to do, and in fact, the pricing environment remains the fairly productive at this point, and the teams feel pretty good about the opportunities that further price has for us.
speaker
Raymond James
Got it. That's helpful. And then just on future M&A, you know, now that you've done an acquisition larger than the previous ones, when do you think you have capacity to start looking at sort of the niche tuck-ins you've been known for over the last few years and just broadly your thoughts on capital allocation, including the share or purchase plans from here?
speaker
Chris
Yeah. Look, I think for M&A, first of all, we are not out of the game on M&A. We are engaged and looking at things. And obviously, the bar is high. Obviously, we're going to need to be really disciplined about what we do from here. But being three times levered with the cash profile that we have, a deal like Billy certainly doesn't take us off the M&A landscape. There's a lot of interesting assets out there. And my team spends a lot of time you know, looking at these for similar characteristics that we see with Billy, right? High growth, opportunity to gain growth in a growing segment, capability, share, et cetera. So I think from an M&A perspective, still highly engaged and still looking at a lot of interesting assets. In the broader capital allocation Look, we really like where we are in the sense that we have a very clear, very disciplined, and very broad approach to capital allocation that we have, in fact, been executing, right? A year ago, we initiated the dividend, interesting yields, 1.5%, 2%, solid returns. We then augmented that with the buyback program that we announced a quarter ago. We executed that extremely well in the first quarter, just over 20, about $25 million. on track for what we would have expected. We'll obviously continue to evaluate that, but you pull all of that together with a leverage profile in our two to three times with a cash forecast like we have that can generate $175, $180 million a year, we really like where we are and we like how we're executing.
speaker
Raymond James
Thanks very much.
speaker
Chris Goff
Thanks, Olivia. Operator, next question, please.
speaker
Operator
Currently, we have no further questions. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rod Little for any closing remarks.
speaker
Rod Little
Thank you, everyone, for your continued interest and time. Have a great day.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Disclaimer

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