5/8/2025

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Welcome to the EPR Properties Q1 2025 earnings call. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I will now hand the call over to Brian Moriarty, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications.

speaker
Brian Moriarty
Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications

Great, thank you. Thanks for joining us today for our first quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. Participants on today's call are Greg Silvers, Chairman and CEO, Greg Zimmerman, Executive Vice President and CIO, and Mark Peterson, Executive Vice President and CFOs. I'll start by informing you that this call may include forelooking statements as defined in the Private and Securities Litigation Act of 1995, identified by such words as will be intended to continue believed, may expect, hope, anticipate, or other comparable terms. The company's actual financial condition and the results of the operations may vary materially from those contemplated such forelooking statements. Discussion of those factors that could cause results to differ materially from those forelooking statements are contained. The company's SEC filings, including the company's reports, on form 10K and 10Q. Additionally, this call can name references to certain non-GAP measures, which we believe are useful in evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAP measures are included in today's earnings release and supplemental information furnished to the SEC on form 8K. If you wish to follow along today's earnings release, supplemental and earnings presentation are all available on the Investor Center page of the company's website, .eprkc.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Greg Silvers.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Brian. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's first quarter 2025 earnings call in webcast. I am happy to report that our first quarter results reflect continued strength in our portfolio with top-line revenue of .7% and FFO has adjusted per share of .3% year over year. Additionally, we are pleased to announce that we are increasing our 2025 earnings guidance. During the quarter, we made progress with our investment pipeline, deploying capital into accretive opportunities that support our long-term growth strategy. As part of our investment spending during the quarter and subsequent to quarter in, we are introducing two new experiential asset types to our portfolio, a construction-themed attraction and a private golf club with expansive amenities. We are delighted to add these properties to our portfolio as they reflect the attributes we seek in our experiential investments. While we remain prudent in our investment spending given the current cost of capital, we are encouraged by our ability to continue to find attractive investments. We also advance our capital recycling strategy focused on the sale of theater and education assets and accretively redeploying this capital into target experiential properties. This strategy remains a top priority for us as we continue to refine our portfolio with the goal of further expanding our experiential portfolio across high-quality properties. Turning to an overview of our portfolio, our first quarter consolidated coverage remains at 2.0, which is consistent with the recorded coverage on our year-end call. We are pleased with the momentum and resilience we're seeing at the box office. Thus far, we've seen success around multiple genres, including original content as most recently evidenced by the performance of Sinners, franchise films, including Captain America, Brave New World and Mufasa the Lion King, and animated features like Dog Man and Moana 2. The upcoming film slate is strong and we remain optimistic about seeing continued solid performance in the actor's blood submission. Our ski properties also delivered solid results, supported by robust season pass sales and favorable weather conditions. As we've discussed previously, our snowmaking capabilities at these properties help to mitigate weather risk. While our eating play sector experienced some -over-year declines, our coverage in the space remains healthy and we are confident about the sector's resilience. Lastly, amid ongoing uncertainty, we wanted to highlight the long-term resiliency of experiential spending in many of these sectors that we invest in. As is highlighted on the chart, spending on these experiences has consistently grown over the last 25 years throughout macro cycles. Additionally, the data illustrates that these sectors are resilient during challenging economic periods and have the potential to exhibit robust recoveries. We believe that consumers often seek a way for home entertainment and leisure options even during more challenging period due to a mix of psychological, behavioral and economic factors. These types of experiences offer affordable escapism by providing value-oriented entertainment and a temporary escape. History suggests there is also some substitution effect whereby consumers may trade down rather than opt out, opting for local, more budget-friendly experiences instead of expensive vacations or high-end purchases. This trade-down effect can make our venues more appealing during downturns. With that, I'll turn it over to Greg Zimmerman to go over the business in greater detail.

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

Thanks, Greg. At the end of the quarter, our total investments were approximately 6.8 billion with 331 properties that are 99% in the East or Upper East, excluding vacant properties we intend to sell. During the quarter, our investment spending was 37.7 million. 100% of the spending was in our experiential portfolio. Our experiential portfolio comprises 276 properties with 51 operators and accounts for 94% of our total investments or approximately 6.4 billion. And at the end of the quarter, excluding the vacant properties we intend to sell was 99% leased or operated. Our education portfolio comprises 55 properties with five operators, and at the end of the quarter was 100% leased. Turning to coverage, the most recent data provided is based on a March trailing 12-month period. Overall portfolio coverage remained strong at two times, the same as last quarter. Turning now to the operating status of our tenants. The rebound in North American box office continues. Q1 box office was 1.4 billion, down .6% compared to Q1 2024, largely because of the significant underperformance by Snow White. We've seen a quick rebound with the outstanding performance of several films in Q2 today. Q2 box office through this week was 11 billion, which brings -to-date box office to 2.5 billion, a .1% increase over the same period in 2024. A Minecraft movie opened to 163 million, both the largest opening in 2025 and the largest opening weekend ever for a video game movie. To date, Minecraft has grossed 398 million. Akin to Barbie, Minecraft was a cultural phenomenon fueled by consumers seeing the movie several times and interacting with the screen. Beyond Minecraft, the well-reviewed genre-bending horror film Sinners has grossed $180 million to date, and the faith-based The King of Kings has grossed 58 million. Last week, Thunderbolts, the latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, opened to 74 million. With these strong early Q2 performances, as of the first week of May, we are back on track for our projected -to-date box office gross. As history has shown, when product is flowing, the box office is resilient, and when there is a consistent flow of good product, consumers are in the habit of going to multiple movies. For the remainder of Q2, beyond Minecraft, eight titles are projected to gross over 100 million, including four projected to gross over 175 million. Thunderbolts, Lilo and Stitch, Mission Impossible The Final Reckoning, and How to Train Your Dragon. The slate for the remainder of the year is also strong, including the Fantastic Four First Steps, Superman, Jurassic World Rebirth, and Avatar Fire and Ash. Box office gross ties directly to the number of titles released, particularly wide releases from the nine major Hollywood studios, which typically generate around two-thirds of the North American box office. As of May, we anticipate 2025 will have 78 major studio releases and 60 smaller studio releases. At this point in 2024, there were 64 major studio releases on the calendar. The 78 major studio releases currently scheduled for 2025 are forecasted to gross $800 million more than the major studio releases scheduled at this point in 2024. Our estimate of North American box office for calendar year 2025 remains between 9.3 and 9.7 billion. Another important element supporting the health of exhibitor profitability is the ongoing expansion of food and beverage offerings. These expanded offerings are driving increased consumer spending, revenue per patron, and levels of profitability per patron. Based on AMC and Cinemark public filings from 2019 through 2024, per patron ticket prices increased by approximately 26%, while F&B spending per patron increased by approximately 60%. Ticket margin is around 46%, while F&B margin is around 82%. This notable increase in higher margin F&B spending meaningfully boosts gross profit per patron and has a positive impact on the bottom line. When adjusting for the current per patron spending mix, we estimate that North American box office gross of around 9.5 billion today will generate rent coverage levels in our portfolio equal to those generated at an 11.3 billion dollar box office in 2019. While box office metrics obviously will remain an important benchmark, the industry story has evolved and strong per patron profitability now plays an important role in sustaining operator health. We believe that returning to 2019 box office levels is not necessary to maintain solid rent coverage or for the industry to remain financially healthy. Turning now to an update on our other major customer groups. Despite continuing pressure on operating expenses and in select cases, attendance and revenue declines, we saw good results across our drive to value oriented destinations. Our Eastern ski areas benefited from a good snow year and for the season, both Q1 and Q1 trailing 12 month revenue and EVA Darm were up across the ski portfolio over last year's season. Andretti Karting is under construction in Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Schaumburg with openings scheduled for mid 25 and early 26. Our Eat and Play coverage remains strong and above pre-COVID levels, but Q1 trailing 12 month revenue and EVA Darm were both down over the same period in 24. Many of our attractions were closed for the season in Q1. The 100,000 square foot indoor water park addition at Bavarian Inn in Frankenmuth, Michigan opened in Q1. Our iconic Hotel de Glasse at Valparais celebrated its 25th anniversary with its usual strong performance. Santa Monica Pier was adversely impacted by the Southern California wildfires, including being shut down for several days. Some road closures are ongoing. We're very pleased with the strong performance of our fitness and wellness investments. The Springs Resort in Pagosa Springs opened its $90 million expansion in early April to good reviews. Ramp-up continues at our Murrieta Hot Springs Resort. Across our fitness and wellness portfolio, we saw increases in both revenue and EVA Darm in the trailing 12 months through March, 2025 over the same period in 24. Our education portfolio continues to perform well. Our customers trailing 12 month revenue across the portfolio for 2024 was up, while EVA Darm over the same period decreased, driven largely by increased operating costs for one operator. Our investment spending for Q1 was 37.7 million, which included funding for experiential projects which have closed but are not yet open. During the quarter, we acquired Diggerland USA in West Berlin, New Jersey, 20 miles east of Philadelphia for 14.3 million. Diggerland is the only construction themed attraction water park in the country, and as our second investment with IAM, further diversifying our tenant base. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we made two additional investments. We made our first investment in the traditional golf space, acquiring the land for 1.2 million and providing 5.9 million in mortgage financing, secured by the improvements to Evergreen Partners for an existing private club in Georgia. We've spent a lot of time analyzing traditional golf while building deep relationships, and we are delighted to announce our foray into what we think is an exciting growth opportunity in a resilient space with a growing operator. We also acquired our second Penn Stack Eat and Play venue in Northern Virginia for 1.6 million, with a commitment to provide build to suit financing up to 19 million. This project is expected to open in 2026. Penn Stack features bowling, food and beverage, and redemption games. We continue to see high quality opportunities for both acquisition and build to suit development in our target experiential categories. Given our cost to capital, we will continue to maintain discipline and to fund those investments primarily from cash on hand, cash from operations, proceeds from dispositions, and with the borrowing availability under our unsecured revolving credit facility. We're maintaining our investment spending guidance for funds to be deployed in 2025 in the range of 200 to 300 million. We have committed approximately 148 million for experiential development and redevelopment projects that have closed but are not yet funded to be deployed over the next two years. We anticipate approximately 87 million of the 148 million will be deployed in 2025, which is included at the midpoint of our 2025 guidance range. We continue to execute on our strategy to focus our portfolio on diversified experiential assets. To that end, at Q1, we sold 10 least early education centers, demonstrating our ability to strategically monetize our education portfolio. We also sold a vacant theater, two operating theaters, and one vacant early childhood education center. Net proceeds for these transactions totaled 70.8 million, and we recognized a gain of 9.4 million. Finally, we received 8.1 million in net proceeds for the payment in full of two mortgages secured by two additional early childhood education centers. The activity in the education portfolio was anchored by the sale of a portfolio of nine least early childhood education centers to an investor at a 7.4 cap rate, demonstrating the high quality and value of our education portfolio. For the other three operating early childhood education assets, the existing operator purchased and or paid off mortgage financing at a blended rate of around 8.3%. In the past four years, we have sold 27 theaters. We only have three vacant theaters, two of which are under contract. We have no vacant early childhood education centers. As we noted on our year-end call, we also have signed purchase and sale agreement to sell two theater properties to a smaller operator that currently leases both locations. Although there can be no assurance, we continue to anticipate this sale will occur by January 30. We are revising our 2025 disposition guidance to the range of 80 million, from the range of 180 million, excuse me, to the range of 80 million to 120 million from a range of 25 million to 75 million. I now turn it over to Mark for discussion with you. Thank

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

you, Greg. Today I will discuss our financial performance for the first quarter, provide an update on our balance sheet and close with an update on 2025 guidance. FFO's adjusted for the quarter was $1.19 per share versus $1.13 in the prior year, an increase of over 5%. Additionally, AFFO for the quarter was $1.21 per share compared to $1.12 in the prior year, an increase of 8%. Before I walk through the key variants, I want to go over two gains recognized during the quarter. As Greg discussed, during the quarter, we continue to make progress reducing our investments in theater and education properties and recycling those proceeds into other experiential assets. That proceeds from dispositions totaled $78.9 million and we recognize the net gain on sale of $9.4 million. We also recognize the net benefit for credit losses of $652,000. Note that both of these gains are excluded from FFO's adjusted and AFFO. Now moving to the key variances. Total revenue for the quarter was $175 million versus $167.2 million in the prior year. Within total revenue, rental revenue increased $4.1 million versus the prior year, mostly due to the impact of investment spending and higher percentage rents. Percentage rents for the quarter were $3.3 million versus $1.9 million in the prior year and the increase was due primarily to $1.1 million recognized from one early childhood education center tenant. The increase in mortgage and other financing income of $4.1 million was due to additional investments in mortgage notes over the past year, as well as $1.8 million of participating interest income related to a ski property. I would like to note that both the $1.1 million in percentage rent and $1.8 million participating interest income relate to prior periods. The calculations for some of these amounts were under review with our customers and agreement was reached after the amounts during the first quarter. Later, I will discuss how this impacts our 2025 guidance. Both other income and other expense relate primarily to our consolidated operating properties, including the Cartwright Hotel and Indoor Water Park and our operating theaters. As Greg discussed, during the quarter, we sold two operating theaters and currently have four operating theaters remain. The first quarter was off season for our two remaining unconsolidated RV park joint ventures that had a carrying value at quarter end of $11.4 million. Interest expense net for the quarter increased by $1.4 million compared to the previous year due to an increase in borrowings under our unsecured revolving credit facility, which had no balance in the prior year. Turning to the next slide, I will review some of the company's key credit ratios. As you can see, our coverage ratios continue to be strong with fixed charge coverage at 3.2 times and both interest and debt service coverage ratios at 3.8 times. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA RE was 5.3 times for the quarter. If you adjust this ratio to include the annualization of investments placed in service acquired or disposed of during the quarter and the annualization of percentage rent and participating interest as well as other items, this ratio is 5.1 times at quarter end, which is at the low end of our targeted range. Additionally, our net debt to gross assets was 39% on a book basis at quarter end and our common dividend continues to be very well covered with an AFFO payout ratio of 71% for the first quarter. Now let's move to our balance sheet, which is in great shape. At quarter end, we had consolidated debt of 2.8 billion of which 2.7 billion is either fixed rate debt or debt that has been fixed through interest rate swaps with an overall blended coupon of approximately 4.4%. Our liquidity position remains strong with 20.6 million of cash on hand at quarter end and 105 million drawn on our $1 billion revolver. Subsequent to quarter end, we repaid 300 million in senior unsecured notes at maturity using funds available under our revolver. We have no other debt maturities in 2025. Our strong liquidity position provides us great flexibility which is particularly important given the recent market volatility. We are increasing our 2025 FFOs adjusted per share guides to a range of $5 to 5.16 from a range of 4.94 to 5.14, representing increase over the prior year of .3% at the midpoint. As we have discussed previously, given our current cost of capital, we are eliminating our near term investment spending. We are confirming our 2025 investment spending guidance of 200 million to 300 million. We are increasing guidance for disposition proceeds for 2025 to a range of 80 million to 120 million from a range of 25 million to 75 million. On the next slide, we are increasing our percentage rent and participating interest income to a range of 21.5 million to 25.5 million from a range of 18 million to 22 million. This increase is primarily related to the 2.9 million in prior period income recognized in the first quarter that I discussed previously, as well as additional amounts expected related to the current year. We are increasing our GNA expense to a range of 53 million to 56 million from a range of 52 million to 55 million, with the largest increase at the midpoint related to non-cash stock grant amortization. We are confirming the guidance for our consolidated operating properties, which is provided by giving a range for other income and other expense. One final comment regarding our FFOs adjusted per share guidance. Note that given the fact that our expected percentage rents and participating interest income continues to be weighted to the second half of the year, as does the performance of our operating properties due to seasonality, FFOs adjusted per share is expected to be significantly higher in the second half of the year versus the first half. Guidance details can be found on page 23 of our supplemental. Finally, we are pleased to have increased our monthly common dividend by .5% to 354 per share annualized, which began with the dividend payable April 15 to shareholders of record as of March 31st. We expect our 2025 dividend to be well covered with an FFO per share payout continuing to be at about 70% based on the midpoint of guidance. Now with that, I'll turn it back over to Greg for his closing remarks. Thanks Mark.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

As today's results indicate, our portfolio of experiential properties continues to deliver quality results. I also wanted to comment on recent announcements about possible tariffs impacting the film industry. At this point, there is significant uncertainty about the viability, scope and timing to implement such proposal. However, both sides of the bait have a stated objective of producing a robust slate of films that drive a successful film exhibition industry. We will closely monitor these developments, but we take comfort that the entire 2025 slate and most, if not all of the 2026 slate is already in post-production, which we believe should limit any near-term impact. With that, why don't I open it up for questions? Alice?

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please click on the raise hand button, which can be found on the black bar at the bottom of your Zoom screen. When it is your turn, you will receive a message on your screen from the host, allowing you to talk, and then you will hear your name called. Please accept, unmute your audio and ask your question. If you are on a mobile device using the app, simply tap into the three dots or more button to find the raise hand feature. And lastly, if you are calling in today, star nine will activate the raise hand and use star six to mute and unmute. We will wait one moment to allow the queue to form. Our first question will come from Anthony Polone with JP Morgan. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Anthony Polone
JP Morgan Analyst

Great, thanks. Yes, you can hear me. Yes, yes. My first, great. First question is on the golf investment. Can you maybe spend a minute and give us a little bit more color around how you see the yields, deal structure, and just maybe a little bit more on the first transaction here in terms of what equity is behind it, who the operator is, experience, that sort of thing.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Sure, I think, and then I'll let Greg Zimmerman add on to this. I think what we've done is done a deep dive in this, Tony, and there's, you know, nearly 2,000 courses across the US have been eliminated over the last five years. So there clearly is scarcity has been introduced into it. This that we're involved in is a private club. So the, you know, the actual membership and fees and everything tied to the land and run with the home ownership. So we think it's a very, very solid and reliable income flow, but we also think there are good opportunities that are gonna continue to develop in this scarce environment,

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

but Greg. Yeah, Tony, I would say this is a private club. We're also monitoring daily fee clubs, which we would have an interest in as well. I think the deal structure you'll see is flexible like our traditional deal structures. You know, we'll either approach this as a sale lease back or in this case, it was mortgage financing. The operator is a growing operator. They have a couple of clubs and a deep bench of talent. So we believe it's an opportunity to grow with them. And lastly, I will say, as we always do, we spent a lot of time over the last five years understanding the industry and developing deep roots. I think as we've said repeatedly over the last year or so, we really believe in fitness and wellness as a growth opportunity in this portfolio and that helps us round out our offerings.

speaker
Anthony Polone
JP Morgan Analyst

Okay, thanks for that. And then just my second one's really a two-parter on the disposition side of things. One, just would love to hear the nature of the buyers that you're seeing out there. I mean, it seemed like good portfolio execution on the early childhood education sale. And then also just more nuance related to the guidance. You have about $40 million, I think, of mortgage receivables that come due later this year. And I was wondering if you expect to get paid back on those or if those get extended, if it's in the disposition guidance or just what happens there?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, I would say first of all, it was a robust process with multiple bids and buyers in that the depth of the buyer was good. This was a private fund that specializes in education. And like I said, I think Greg would say on most of our sales right now, we're at least two or three deep on quality bids for our assets. So that's strong. As far as the repayment of the mortgages, I think we have one built in there, but Mark, maybe you have.

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Yeah, there are two mortgages you say maturing. I think we, in guidance that more than $10.75 million number that we have in our guidance. The other one, we'll see what happens, but more likely gets extended.

speaker
Anthony Polone
JP Morgan Analyst

Okay, thank you. Thanks, thank you, Tony.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from Bennett Rose with Citi. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Bennett Rose
Citi Analyst

Okay, thanks. Hi, I wanted to ask you just two questions. One, I'm sure you saw that Six Flags is closing their Hurricane Harbor Annapolis and apparently doing kind of a strategic review of a number of their properties. I was just wondering if they are communicating with you about any of your Hurricane Harbor properties or kind of what coverage looks like there?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Again, I would say clearly we're in contact with Six Flags all the time as a good tenant. We don't anticipate any of our properties closing. And I think as it develops, that will show you that they've got a higher and better use for that property and will generate substantial value associated with it.

speaker
Bennett Rose
Citi Analyst

Okay, and then I was just wondering, I used the credit line to pay down the bonds that were, yeah, the bonds that were coming due. Would you expect to do kind of a term that out later this year or maybe you could just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

that? Yeah, we have some flexibility when it comes to that. If you think about it, we have, like you said, 105 million on the line paid off the debt subsequent to your end, which was about, took us to about 400 million on the line. And then you kind of look at investment spending and cash flows over the remainder of the year. That's probably a net 100 million more on the line. So the good news is if we don't do anything, we're only about half drawn on the line. But I will say in our guidance, we do expect to do a bond transaction and turn that out to your point. And if you did a $400 million transaction, we'd be down to about 100 million at your end. So I think the good news is we have some flexibility with respect to that. We're monitoring the market both in the five-year and 10-year realm. But lightly we would do a bond transaction. We're also monitoring sale transactions as well.

speaker
Bennett Rose
Citi Analyst

What do you think a five-year or 10-year would price now for you?

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

So a five-year spread wise would probably be in the 180, 185 area. So if you look at today's treasury, it'd probably be in the 575 and three quarters area. And that's probably 60 basis points when you count the rate and spread difference between that and a 10-year, about 60 basis points less than what a 10-year would be. Frankly, we think our strategy is to have a 10-year where spreads are still higher than they should be. And hopefully quarters like this and as the box office recovers and people take note of that, we hope those spreads come in a bit.

speaker
Bennett Rose
Citi Analyst

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from R.J. Milligan with Raymond James. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question. R.J. R.J. Milligan, please unmute yourself.

speaker
R.J. Milligan
Raymond James Analyst

Hey guys, sorry about that. Dispositions in the quarter, dispositions in the quarter a little bit more than expected. And so I think on a standalone basis, that would lead to a decrease in guidance, but guidance was up and Mark, you touched on this in your comments, but I'm just curious if you could maybe quantify some of the components, obviously higher percentage rent, but what else is going in there? And then the second part to that question is, as we think about the 508 at the midpoint for the year, how much of that is sort of non-recurring or one-time prior period collections that we should strip out as we think about 2026?

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Yeah, let me walk you through that. So we were at 504 midpoint, we increased percentage rent guidance at the midpoint by three and a half million, that's about four and a half cents. And about 2.9 of the 3.5 was prior period, as I mentioned, so call that three and a half cents or so of the four and a half cent increase in percentage rents. And then we go in the other way, we're increased GNA by about a penny. So on the two explicit things that we provide, that gets you to about 507, to your point, the remaining two items, there's probably about a two cent impact of the incremental dispositions. From a gap point of view, those average about a nine cap, from a gap perspective, even though we're much lower than that on a cash basis. So two cents on the dispositions and offsetting that going the other way, about two and a half cents is lower interest expense. And that's partially because we moved back the timing of our bond offering. So anyway, 504, the two explicit items, gives you the 507 and then kind of the net impact of about another penny of less interest expense on the positive side and incremental dispositions on the negative side. I call it negative from an earnings perspective, it certainly was positive from a portfolio management point of view.

speaker
R.J. Milligan
Raymond James Analyst

Okay, and then just the follow up to that is in the 508 number, how much of it is prior period rank collections that we should think about pulling out for a run rate for 26?

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Right, really it's just that percentage rents 2.9 million. We don't have any out of period deferral collections in this quarter, nor do we plan any in our guidance. So it's really through the first quarter, the expectation for the year right now is just the 2.9 million is prior period. So that's about three and

speaker
R.J. Milligan
Raymond James Analyst

a half cents. Okay, that's helpful. And then, thank you for that. Stocks done well so far this year. Obviously you guys have been self-funding through dispositions and pre-cash flow. At what point or stock price do you guys start getting a little bit more aggressive and thinking about issuing equity to increase the investment activity?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Again, RJ, it's Greg. It's really about a creative growth. And so it's really a function of the spread that you can get and where you can issue at. I think, and I credit the team here, we're delivering kind of at the top, near the top end of sector growth without having to issue equity. As opportunities and Greg and his team find those opportunities, we'll take a look at it. I think from an absolute standpoint, probably as we get at or near an 11 multiple, it starts to get kind of much more interesting. We've talked about the depth of our opportunities, but when you can drive 4% growth with a 7% dividend and deliver 11% total shareholder return with what we think is very little execution risk and no capital markets, we think that should be quite appealing to investors and the opportunity to do more as we continue to demonstrate our ability to execute.

speaker
R.J. Milligan
Raymond James Analyst

Makes sense, thanks, yes. Thanks, RJ, thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question comes from Justin Hasby with RBC Capital Markets. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question. Justin, if you are calling in today, star nine will activate the raise hand and you star six, please, to mute and

speaker
Justin Hasby
RBC Capital Markets Analyst

unmute. Sorry about that. Thanks for taking the question. Can you just provide some color on the investment pipeline and the types of opportunities in the market?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, and I'll let Greg jump in on this. I think overall, as you know, as we kind of demonstrate, it's a depth and breadth that we're trying to take advantage of, and as we've talked about before, look at opportunities which provides opportunities for future growth. Like, even in the golf, we've signed agreements where this hopefully will lead to future growth as we go forward, and Greg and his team do a great job about not only finding a DDI deal, but finding a pipeline of deals or supporting existing tenants, but Greg. Yeah, and to

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

follow up on a couple of things there, Justin, if you look at the depth and breadth, I mean, we've announced deals in Eat and Play, attractions and fitness and wellness this year. To Greg's point, on the golf deal, we have a forward commitment for funding. Our PennStack deal is our second with this operator, and our IAM deal is our second with that operator. So that's the way we like to grow the business. As I've said, and I mentioned earlier on the call, I think we see a lot of opportunities in the fitness and wellness space, which we broadly define and includes our hot springs resorts and in and out golf. So I would say we're seeing opportunities in all of our sectors, probably not so much in gaming right now, but all the other verticals, a lot of opportunities.

speaker
Justin Hasby
RBC Capital Markets Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then the last one from me, can you just expand on the current macro environment and how that could impact your underlying tenant base and then any impacts on future investment activity?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Again, as we kind of laid out, there's actually not withstanding the moniker of consumer discretionary, there's a lot of resilience in what we think is affordable entertainment and leisure options. It will ebb and flow within, like we said, Eat and Play was down a little, ski was up, theaters are up 17% here today. So again, those things will ebb and flow, but people don't give up fun. And we've continued to see those kinds of resiliency, both in the current environment as we look back through history. And we'll continue to be mindful of what we think are those value oriented drive to destinations that demonstrate that kind of resiliency and continue to deploy capital in a way that we think creates high quality and resilient cashflow streams that support rising dividends.

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

Craig, I would also add one of our strong thesis is in the fitness and wellness space is that that's the change in culture and that people are gonna wanna continue to spend money in those spaces despite the economic conditions. And again, we're seeing that fitness and wellness portfolio.

speaker
Justin Hasby
RBC Capital Markets Analyst

Great, thanks.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from Catherine Graves with UBS. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Catherine Graves
UBS Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. My first AMC on their earnings call, they expect 2026 box office to surpass 2025. So is that consistent with the conversations that you're having with others? And does that at all influence how you're thinking about theaters in the longer term?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

I think that is consistent that we think it's really driven by the content and the slate of movies. And that's kind of where everybody starts that and the slate continues to get deeper. I don't think it changes our perspective on theaters. We have continued to say that we wanna lower that and that level of concentration and increase our diversity. Probably what it does is it creates better opportunities to execute on that strategy. But listen, it continues to improve the health and sustainability of the environment. If you look at someone like CentiMark, they're now trading back at levels pre 2019. So again, we're very, very excited about kind of that continuing involvement of box office. And as we've said on the slide that we presented, the mix has changed and we now have with food and beverage, even at nine and a half billion, which is kind of the midpoint of what we're talking about this year, kind of even dark and contributions should be at or near back to box office levels that were 11.3. So we're really excited about where the direction will go.

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Just to add to that, that should increase our real percentage rent that goes through July. So we've got a nice momentum this year and expect an increase given the box office improvement expected for the following year. And keep in mind, we also have the other half of the AMC bump. So I think we have good results forecast over this year and that momentum continues into next year.

speaker
Catherine Graves
UBS Analyst

Got it, thank you, that's helpful. And then my second question, you've discussed sort of the tariff and inflation resistance of the existing experiential portfolio, but I was wondering maybe a little bit more on tariffs. How are you thinking about the possible impact to your development pipeline? Has the tone of negotiation shifted at all following April 2nd? Are there any concerns for things like projects getting delayed or paused at all or anything like that?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

I think that's a very good point. I think clearly there's a lot more discussions on build a suit project. Everything that we have right now is kind of priced out with GMB pricing. So pricing's locked in prior to the implementation of the tariffs. But as we go forward, there's no doubt that people are going to be looking at those things. For what we have in our forecast right now, what we feel good about, because we've got kind of locked in pricing, but we're quite confident that it will at least be a topic of discussion as we go forward, whether that's lumber, steel, equipment, all of those things are going to be brought to bear and we'll just have to see kind of as we go forward. Right now, as I said, we feel good about where we're at right now, and we'll just see how it impacts as we move forward.

speaker
Catherine Graves
UBS Analyst

Thank you for the color. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from Mitch Jermaine with Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Mitch Jermaine
Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory Analyst

Hey, good morning. I think there was some previous commentary by an industry group in the theater industry about a significant amount of capital spend, several billion dollars of capital spend plan for theater upgrades. And I'm curious if that process is underway and you think there could be any disruption given what's happening in the macro?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Oh, the process is already underway and we're seeing it impacts some of our properties. So that's, but it's not, it's literally kind of what we would call expansions into large format and IMAX and new seating and things. We don't really see an impact to that, nor do we see a lot yet that that's being impacted by anything related to tariffs, that most of those commitments have already been ordered and made. So they laid them out in future schedules. So I haven't seen any backup of that yet, Greg. No, and Mitch,

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

I would say, even though it's a big number they announced, it's per house a relatively limited impact. So it doesn't take that long to make these conversions and they're all economically beneficial. So we're very supportive of that.

speaker
Mitch Jermaine
Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory Analyst

Great, that's helpful. And then I hope I didn't miss it, Mark. Was there anything specific that drove the percentage rent activity in the first quarter?

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Yeah, as I mentioned, we had 2.9 million of prior period percentage rents that hit percentage rents and interest. And then in addition, we had some additional percentage rents, as I mentioned, we took up our guidance, three and a half million. A lot of that relates to what happened in Q1. And when I say it's percentage rents and percentage interest, it hits two different line items. Percentage rent hits rental income and percentage interest hits mortgage and financing income. But that was the big delta.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from you, Paul Rana with Key Bank Capital Markets. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Paul Rana
Key Bank Capital Markets Analyst

Great, thank you. Greg, maybe you can talk about the strength of the consumers today and if you're seeing any impact on consumer spend, at least in the near term. The longer term chart that you provided was helpful, but just curious what you're seeing today as it relates to consumer spend and behavior, thanks.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, I think it's really, again, resilient. I mean, we're seeing pockets where it's stronger and pockets where we're seeing weakness. I would say if anything is going through there, it's on the food spend. Even when we look at our eat and play, it's the kind of the eat side of that, that's kind of down. So people are still enjoying the activities, but not spending as much on that. So again, that's consistent with what we've seen historically. So we still see, like I said, ski up, we saw fitness and wellness up, we saw eat and play down slightly. So this is the benefit of having a diversified portfolio in the experiential and it manifests itself out in the coverage kind of stayed the same. But right now there may be some real pressure at the lowest end of the consumer, but in that lower middle through the middle, we still feel it's highly supportive. When we talk to our tenants, they say that. So as long as the key indicator when we talk to them, as long as employment remains good, people are incorporating these experiential avenues and venues into their everyday lives. And we see no reason for that to not continue, but Greg.

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

Yeah, I think probably the best metric is we've had five straight weeks of a hundred million dollars or more at the box office, including two weeks of over $200 million. So people are still spending. And as we mentioned, both Cinemark and ANC reported in the past week and they have per caps of around $8 that are only saved through the first quarter. So that's a real time indicator that things aren't

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

so bad. And the other metric I point to is the fact that we're two times cover across the portfolio, that's higher than 1.9 pre-COVID. So we're still tracking on a trailing 12 month basis higher than pre-COVID.

speaker
Paul Rana
Key Bank Capital Markets Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. That was helpful. And then the box office has had a good start at 2Q, but there's some anticipation that we might get over 4 billion in the box office this summer, which only happened once since the pandemic due to Barbie and Oppenheimer. Just curious, how do you anticipate the box office trending heading into the summer months and then later in the second half?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Thanks. Yeah, I mean, right now, like I said, we build everything up bottom up in our analysis. I will tell you, and we tell people all of this time, we are horrible at picking movie by movie. I don't think there's a person sitting in this room with me that thought Minecraft was gonna do $400 million and it will cross that this weekend. But the titles, the depth and the quantity of titles look strong when you start to look. If you look at Lilo and Stitch that's coming up is now trending higher in pre-sales than Minecraft. So it really looks like we have a good shot at setting an all-time, not COVID, I'm saying all-time Memorial Day weekend record with the Mission Impossible film and Lilo and Stitch on their own doing together over 200 million. So again, when you have a constant flow of product, and you've heard us talk about this many times, it's not necessarily the individual film, it's the stacking up films week after week and where people get into the habit and go into that film and seeing those previews drives them to go more. And we're getting back into that. So if you look at the kind of Greg's comments, if you look at eight films over the next kind of couple of months that are expected to do 100 million or more, that means we're getting a big expected hit every weekend. And that kind of performance really is what drives kind of the excitement about the summer and beyond.

speaker
Greg Zimmerman
Executive Vice President and CIO

And then the second half of the year, pardon me, looks really strong with franchises, fantastic for Superman, Jurassic World, Avatar ending out the year. And then we got Wicked, the second half of

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Wicked coming in. So I mean, there's a lot of good titles. And again, it's also a nice balance. We're getting back into that. You've got Mission Impossible, you got Lilo and Stitch, you got that drives 18 to 24 year old males, but also drives the family. And as we get to that kind of good content and consistent number of high quality films, that leads to good box office results.

speaker
Paul Rana
Key Bank Capital Markets Analyst

Okay, great, thank you.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our next question will come from Spencer Glimcher with Green Street. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

speaker
Spencer Glimcher
Green Street Analyst

Great, can you guys hear me? Yes. Okay, excellent. Okay, well, just one for me. As you look across your various investment opportunities, as you continue recycling capital, have you noticed changes to bid ask spreads or cap rate movements in any of the sectors you're underwriting?

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

Not big movements. I mean, again, we've consistently said we're comfortably in the eights. That's kind of stayed there. And now, again, I would say Spencer, when you look at quality variations, may move that a little bit, but not a lot of changes in the bid ask spread, Greg. No, I think that's not true.

speaker
Spencer Glimcher
Green Street Analyst

Okay, great, that's it for me. Thanks, guys. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Our last question will come from Yana Ghanan with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question. Hi, thank you.

speaker
Yana Ghanan
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Analyst

Good morning and congrats on a great start to the year. Just a quick follow-up on the 2.9 million percentage rent and participating interest true up in the first quarter. Just wanted to clarify, is that completely retroactive? You mentioned some type of agreements, just curious if that impacts level of percentage rents or participations going forward.

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

Yeah, so as I mentioned, we're taking guidance up 3.5 million. 2.9 is prior period. So there is an incremental current year impact to percentage rents from those tenants and borrowers, as well as kind of looking at the overall mix. So there's kind of two components to it. A lot of it's prior period, but there is a current year component as well.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

And I'll jump in and add on that. Again, credit to our asset management staff who are kind of constantly evaluating these. And this related to kind of discussions with these tenants and how they were calculating, versus how we were calculating. It resolved favorably to our interpretation. So not only does it impact prior periods, but it's going to benefit us as we go forward

speaker
Mark Peterson
Executive Vice President and CFO

as well. Yeah, a lot of that conversation was about the deductions that we're taking that we politely disagreed with. And then like Greg said, we resolved that this quarter.

speaker
Yana Ghanan
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Analyst

Great, thank you for clarifying.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

There are no more questions. So I will now turn the call back over to Greg Silvers for any closing remarks.

speaker
Greg Silvers
Chairman and CEO

I just want to thank everyone. I appreciate the opportunity to spend time with you. And we look forward to seeing you at Nayreet in June. Thanks everyone. Thanks.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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