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spk05: Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Evercore's first quarter 2022 financial results conference call. During today's call, parties will be in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, the conference call will be open for questions. If you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone telephone. Please press star zero for operator assistance at any time. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before making your shins. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, April 26, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference call over to your host, Evercore's Head of Investor Relations, SG, Katie Haber. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thank you so much. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Evercore's first quarter 2022 financial results conference call. I'm Katie Haber, Evercore's new head of investor relations in ESG. Joining me on the call today is John Weinberg, our chairman and CEO, and Celeste Millay, our CFO. After our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing Evercore's first quarter 2022 financial results. Our discussion of our results today is complementary to the press release, which is available on our website at evercore.com. This conference call is being webcast live in our For Investors section of our website, and an archive of it will be available for 30 days, beginning approximately one hour after the conclusion of this call. During the course of this conference call, we may make a number of forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements that we make are subject to various risks and uncertainties, and there are important factors that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Evercore's filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K. I want to remind you that the company assumes no duty to update any forward-looking statements. In our presentation today, unless otherwise indicated, we will be discussing adjusted financial measures, which are non-GAAP measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. For detailed disclosures on these measures and the GAAP reconciliations, you should refer to the financial data contained within our press release, which is posted on our website. We continue to believe that it is important to evaluate Evercourse performance on an annual basis. As we have noted previously, our results for any particular quarter are influenced by the timing of transaction closing. I will now turn the call over to John.
spk08: Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Katie. We are very fortunate to have Katie here to take on this important role as head of investor relations in ESG, and I know you will all join me in welcoming her to our team. It was a solid first quarter for Evercore with $728 million in adjusted net revenues, $625 million in adjusted advisory revenues, and $3.80 in adjusted earnings per share, all records for a first quarter. Having said that, I want to acknowledge the challenging geopolitical backdrop that underlies the start of 2022. the war in Ukraine has increased uncertainty on a global basis, resulting in capital markets volatility and wide-ranging strategic questions for corporate leaders. However, even with this recent uncertainty, the fundamental themes that drive M&A activity in the intermediate to long term are still in place. Rates are still low from a historical perspective, markets are accessible, and CEO confidence remains high. On the corporate side, in addition to the search for growth by corporates, we continue to see innovation and new disruptive business models that we expect will drive multi-year M&A decision making. We also anticipate increased activity with respect to the evolving energy transition landscape, ESG-related drivers, and increased private equity activity as sponsors invest record levels of accumulated capital. Notably, Private equity dry powder now exceeds $3.4 trillion and sponsors continue to focus on numerous ways to put this money to work. Further, we see increased activist activity with M&A often catalyzed by certain activist campaigns. With these drivers, our backlogs remain strong, although we would note that the war, inflationary pressure, supply chain constraints, and rising interest rate led to some slowing of the pace of announcements in the latter part of the quarter and an elongation of the timing of transaction closings. Looking at the overall M&A market this quarter, global and U.S. M&A announced dollar volume decreased 21% and 19% respectively compared to the first quarter of 2021. Also, the number of announced deals decreased 17% globally and 20% in the U.S. versus the first quarter of 2021. For the largest deals, those above $5 billion, global activity cooled. Dollar volume declined 10%, and the number of announced deals fell sharply, down over 30% as compared to the first quarter of last year. Looking at transactions in the $1 to $5 billion range, dollar volumes declined 40%, while the number of transactions fell 36% versus the first quarter of 2021. That said, our teams remain active across a broad spectrum of sectors and capabilities. These high activity levels helped contribute to another strong quarter for Evercore. We remain confident that our firm is better equipped than at any point in our history to thrive in varied market environments. a testament to our broad and deep capabilities built over a decade of significant investment. Our firm today is watchful and prepared, and importantly, we continue to be deeply engaged with our clients, advising them on pressing strategic priorities. We are optimistic about our future and continue to invest in our growth by adding talent to our team across all levels and businesses. We're pleased to have had a successful start to our external recruiting efforts in 2022. as human capital continues to be the most important investment we make in our business. In advisering, two senior managing directors joined us in the first quarter, and we have two additional SMDs committed to joining the firm later this year, both focused on our technology franchise. We are in active discussions with additional talented candidates in several areas of strategic significance. Further, our new record class of 17 senior managing director promotes is off to a solid start this year. We look forward to their continued growth and further contributions as they ramp. Turning to the quarter, as I mentioned, our business diversity enabled us to achieve the best first quarter in the firm's history in terms of adjusted net revenues, adjusted EPS, advisory revenues, indicative of the revenue-generating power of our franchise. In advisory, we saw strength in some of the largest sectors, including technology, media and telecom, healthcare, and industrials, driven both by our corporate and sponsor clients. In capital advisory, we see sustained strength in our GP-led transactions, fundraising, secondary investments, continuation fund opportunities, and real estate capital advisory. In terms of restructuring, While classic Chapter 11 restructuring work remains slow given the health of corporate balance sheets, historically low default rates, and relaxed covenants, we continue to be active in liability management engagements, out-of-court restructurings, and in-debt advisory and placements, a capability that we are actively growing. Turning to underwriting, activity was broadly impacted by the significant spikes in volatility and macro headwinds that weighed on issuers and kept them on the sidelines. In the first quarter, we executed 14 underwriting transactions and acted as a book runner on 13 of these. While our activity this quarter was strongest in healthcare, our ECM momentum continues and our pipeline is broad in terms of sector and product reach. We are seeing the benefits of investments in this business, which should become clearer when markets reopened more broadly. Looking at the overall ECM market in the U.S., equity issuance declined over 80% year over year, and IPO issuance declined over 90% versus last year. Since bottoming in February, however, market activity has picked up with issuance in March nearly doubling from February levels, in step with the decline in the VIX. When markets stabilize, we expect activity to rebound as many IPO issuers who had previously targeted first quarter execution windows are now looking to the second or third quarter timelines. In our equity business, we remain connected and engaged with our clients, providing research insights, particularly around Ukraine developments and the Fed and inflation implications. Our research combined with solid sales and trading execution led to record levels of client interactions and in turn strong and improving broker votes. Further, we are seeing the positive impact of our most recent investments with options and converts activity, posting their best quarterly revenue contributions to date. In wealth management, long-term performance remains strong. we were pleased that the Evercore Equity Fund was named among the best diversified mutual funds of 2022 by Investors Business Daily. This award recognizes funds that have beaten their S&P 500 benchmark for the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. Before I turn the call over to Celeste to review our gap results and other financial matters, I want to discuss our capital return strategy. we remain committed to our goal of returning excess cash not invested in the business to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Even in this less certain environment, we were able to raise our dividend, a testament to the power of our diverse business model. Our buyback activity was also very strong to start the year, despite a pause following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We returned $298 million to shareholders during the quarter, through dividends and the repurchase of 2 million shares. Our board declared a dividend of 72 cents per share, an increase of 6% from the prior dividend declared. We intend to return all other excess cash not reinvested in the business or set aside to fund future compensation obligations in the form of share repurchases. As previously announced during the quarter, our board also approved our share repurchase authorization of the lesser of 1.4 billion or 10 million shares and or LP units, reflecting our continued commitment to our capital return objectives. Looking ahead, we remain excited about the opportunities in front of us and have a clear vision for the firm going forward. As they laid out on our fourth quarter call, our consistent roadmap for growth, including investment in talent and in broadening and deepening our capabilities, will allow us to continue to serve our clients and address their needs in almost any environment. Let me now turn the call over to Celeste.
spk04: Thank you, John. For the first quarter of 2022, net revenues, net income, and EPS on a GAAP basis were a record for a first quarter at $723 million, $158 million, and $3.79 respectively. My comments from here will focus on non-GAAP measures, which we believe are useful when evaluating our results. Our standard GAAP reporting and a reconciliation of GAAP to adjusted results can be found in our press release. First quarter adjusted net revenues were $728 million, up 9% year-over-year. First quarter adjusted advisory fees of $625 million were 22% higher year-over-year, which was another first quarter record. As John mentioned, our underwriting business had a slower start to the year along with the rest of the market, with $36 million in revenue, down 54% from the year-ago period. Our equities business continued to perform well given the market environment, with commissions and related fees of $51 million, down 5% year-over-year. Adjusted asset management and administration fees were $19 million, up 8% versus a year ago, driven by higher AUM due to positive flows in markets. Adjusted net income was $173 million for the quarter, up 7% versus a year ago period. Adjusted EPS of $3.80 increased 16% in the prior year. As for our margins, we delivered a first quarter adjusted operating margin of 29.5%, versus 30.1% in the first quarter of last year. First quarter adjusted other revenue was a loss of $3 million, reflecting our losses on our investment funds portfolio, which is used as an economic hedge against a portion of our deferred cash compensation program. This amount fluctuates with market values, and the market decline during the quarter drove the losses. In accordance with relevant accounting principles, our revenue includes approximately $45 million of advisory fees that were driven primarily from transactions that closed in early April. To compare, we recognize $21 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $31 million in the first quarter of 2021 in accordance with the same accounting principles. Turning to expenses, our adjusted compensation ratio for the first quarter was 59%. We historically have reflected a compensation ratio in the first quarter based on our best estimates for the full year. As we always do, we will continue to evaluate the key drivers of our compensation expense as the year progresses and make adjustments as appropriate. As John indicated, our backlog is strong, but given the elevated uncertainty globally, we are carefully monitoring the timing of deal closings. First quarter adjusted non-compensation costs of $84 million were up 15% from $73 million a year ago, primarily driven by higher travel expenses and search and placement fees. Travel levels in the first quarter dropped from the fourth more than our usual seasonality due to the Omicron variant, though picked up as the quarter progressed. We expect travel levels will continue to normalize over time, though remain below historical levels. As we previously mentioned, our non-comps this year will continue to reflect firm growth, which drives increases in occupancy and equipment, related depreciation and amortization, certain tech-related expenses, and several other items. We anticipate that expenses will increase as the year progresses as travel picks up and deal expenses ramp upon the execution of our ECM pipeline, as well as overall inflationary pressures, as we've discussed with you previously. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 17.1%, reflecting the tax deduction associated with the appreciation in the firm's share price upon delivery of employee share-based awards above the original grant price, which reduced our effective tax rate. As John mentioned, we remain committed to returning excess capital to our shareholders. With the 2 million shares repurchased year-to-date, we offset part of the RFUs granted earlier in the year and finished the return of all of our 2021 cash flow. Our repurchases were made at an average price of $128.14. Our first quarter adjusted average diluted share count declined to 45.7 million from 47.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting repurchases Tailwinds from the Treasury stock method due to the decline in the share price during the quarter and partially offset by vesting. Turning to our balance sheet, as of March 31st, our cash and investment securities totaled $1.55 billion. Our excess cash as a percentage of our total cash and investment securities was again in the low double digits. As a reminder, our cash generation and needs are dynamic and are heavily influenced by our business needs, expected compensation obligations, and timing of capital return, which can result in a fluctuation of our relative excess cash position. As John said, although the near term is uncertain, we will continue to execute on our long-term plan and remain optimistic about our future. With that, we will now open the line for questions.
spk05: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you have a question, please press the star followed by the one key on your touch-tone phone. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. If you're using speaker equipment, you may need to lift the handset before making your selection. Please limit your questions to two. You're welcome to rejoin the queue for additional questions, time permitting. Our first question comes from the line of Brennan Hawkin with UBS.
spk06: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start, you guys gave some very fair and balanced remarks about the environment and some of the uncertainty. But, you know, you typically, given your backlogs, you have a vision that's pretty decent out six to nine months. What can you say about that outlook at this stage, understanding that timelines are starting to stretch? And we've heard that financing markets are tightening up a little bit. Have you seen this reflected in your dialogues with sponsors so far, and what color can you give on that and the impact? Thanks.
spk08: Good morning, Brennan. How are you? We are... We've always said that we can see three months out to six months out. I would say that it's even more uncertain now than it's been in the past, and I think we can see clearly three months out. It's very hard to really look a lot further than that. Frankly, we see our dialogues are full and people are very busy. We're talking to clients. It's very hard, though, to say what the market's going to be like in six months because there is so much uncertainty geopolitical elements will actually probably overrun almost every other factor at this point if there comes some kind of extreme. In terms of our dialogues with sponsors and other clients, they're very full. We're very happy and comfortable with where we are right now. Our bankers are busy, they're out on the road, and we're really having what I would call a very full dialogue. From that perspective, we feel quite confident, but clearly it's really hard to look out further than three months right now. But the activity level is good.
spk06: Yeah, great. John, really appreciate that and totally understand that it's challenging. Double-clicking on some of your comments around sponsors, You all have indicated in the past that 30% to 45% of the advisory revenue is sponsor-related over the last few years. Can you maybe give a general indication about what portion of that would be M&A versus the private capital advisory and private fund business? How should we think about that mix? And is it fair to think about that range of 30% to 45% generally, you know, you're trending from the last three years is trending towards the upper end of that range, or has it more been bouncing around that range through that period?
spk08: I think the reason we have a range, Brennan, is because we really do think that it does go back and forth, and so much can be driven by overall volume levels. 30 to 45 remains a good place. We've never broken out exactly what the elements of that would be. But what I would say is that we are building the business on all levels. So, for example, on the capital advisory business, we continue to invest there. We promoted six new partners in that side of the business. last year and we are very committed to that. In addition, we are continuing to invest in the M&A side and so I can easily see real growth there over time. So I feel like that business continues to be a very important focus for us and we're going to continue to invest in it. I think you can assume that we're going to be trying to grow each of those businesses independently and jointly. And so we hopefully will continue to have those businesses grow. But we're not at this moment or at this time breaking that out specifically. But I would just say that we continue to believe that those are all really strong businesses for us and real opportunities. Great. Thanks for that color, John. Appreciate it.
spk05: Our next one is from the line of Devin Ryan. with JMP Securities.
spk00: Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions here. First question, just want to dig in a little bit on some of the higher growth industries and areas within technology specifically. You have seen some pretty severe sell-offs already in the market. Some areas are down over 50% in terms of valuation in recent months, and private valuations have held up better than public valuations, but Curious kind of how this is changing dialogue. These are important areas of the M&A market and how clients are thinking about M&A with valuations having moved so much. And, you know, does it change kind of the conversation? You know, is there more maybe opportunistic deals, like did the type of deals change, or do we just see a big slowdown because, call it the bid-ask, has widened pretty materially maybe more than some other areas of the market?
spk08: Thanks, Devin. You know, I would say that always when there is market movement, the seller and buyer expectations somehow widen and then they come back together. And my thought is that sellers right now are still absorbing what has happened. But frankly, in the dialogues that we're having, there is still a very fulsome set of expectations that deals will get done and can get done. As much as anything on the tech side, I think people are really recognizing that the value of these businesses may be impaired by markets, but they clearly always seem to bounce back. And so buyers are still very interested and sellers are really watching and seeing what kind of prices they can get. And so the dialogues that we're having are full they continue to be at the same kind of velocity that we've had. As we've said, the environment has elongated what I would call as the timing of deals, but I don't think it has really at all impaired the dialogues themselves and the velocity of the dialogues. I think that really we are seeing just these dialogues continue And our bankers are very busy on these, and our tech franchise is growing. I mean, one of the things that we've really done is continue to look to invest on the tech franchise just because the activity level is so high.
spk00: Okay, great to hear, John. Thanks. And then just a quick follow-up here. I want to dig in a little bit more on some of the commentary on kind of the recruiting outlook and It seems that when everyone's incredibly busy, and I know people are still quite busy right now at Evercore, but when industry is kind of hitting on all cylinders, as maybe it was over the past year or two, when people are working with clients, it's harder maybe to pull them away to join kind of a new firm. And so I'm curious if you can give a little bit more clarity around kind of the tenor of conversations that you're having with potential bankers. I know that you're very selective, so, you know, it's kind of always a tough environment or, you know, a competitive environment to recruit. But any thought around, you know, maybe if things are a little bit slower here, you know, obviously to start the year and in coming months, does that create more opportunities to have conversations with people that otherwise maybe would have been working on a transaction and hoping to close it at their prior firm?
spk08: Devin, it's a good question. And what I would say for us is that we are very focused on getting high-quality talent. And we started the year by bringing two people in, one a Japanese partner who's going to help us with our Japanese business, and then another, David Lisher, who is in the debt advisory side and really helping us build out that business. We have two... other recruits who have just basically accepted offers from us, both in tech. And we have several other recruits who are very much in strong, very full dialogue with us that we expect will happen. I would say that we're in the four to eight that we've always said that we focus on. I think we're going to be at the high side of that. And the reason is because we feel like we've got really good opportunities and we're hiring aggressively into our big opportunities. We feel like the group of people who we're talking to right now are A-level talent, and we've always said that if we have the opportunity to improve our business with A-level talent, we will act on it. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now. So we see real opportunity, and we're filling out a lot of the areas that we've talked about with you, things like the tech business, the fig business, biotech, cleantech, fintech. All of those areas are areas that we are looking at very closely, and we actually have some very strong people in and around many of those areas who are interested in working with us. In addition, we're looking at some very, very good opportunities internationally that we really believe we should be working on. So I would say that we're finding the recruiting environment to be very full. We feel like we have access to really strong talent And we're spending a lot of time on it right now.
spk00: Okay, terrific. Great to hear, and I appreciate all the color, John. Thanks so much.
spk05: Our next question is on the line of James Yarrow with Goldman Sachs.
spk11: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So maybe if you could just sort of contextualize the strength of the traditional restructuring business. I know you talked about capital investment. you know, advisory specifically, and what extent this sort of contributed to results. And then, you know, what you think would sort of have to occur in the economic backdrop to catalyze this to return to, say, I don't know, 2020-type levels, you know, when overall restructuring, you know, business was a little bit stronger.
spk08: Thank you for the question. The restructuring business, we think, is a real strength for us, and we've, you know, we continue to be really excited about the prospects over time. As you said, with the markets as strong as they are and as they have been over the last couple of years and rates as low as they've been, there hasn't been quite as much activity. Our restructuring group, which are really a group of really high-quality financiers, have been very busy in out-of-court bankruptcy-type discussions, liability management, and debt advisory-type situations, and also building relationships with sponsors and with other high-yield type situations, there is clearly a reasonable likelihood that the markets will get more difficult, that rates will continue to go up, and that will, in turn, create some opportunities on the restructuring side. we don't see anything right this very minute where we are seeing real volatility in the market. But we actually are looking outward, and we think that it is very possible that the environment will turn. We actually feel very comfortable thinking that we're well-positioned. And I would say that over time, I think you'll see us get very busy again. As you know, this is all a cyclical thing. We feel like the cyclicality is probably closer to the restructuring business getting busier than before. It's just we don't know exactly when that's going to happen. But I would say that we feel very well positioned for it. We really like the way we have positioned our team, and I think they're ready in case clients need them.
spk11: That's a really great caller. And then just for my follow-up, when you sort of think about the deal appetite on the M&A side from your clients, who seems to be sort of more likely to step into the market again? you know, after this current, you know, slowdown in M&A across strategics and sponsors, and maybe you could just sort of contextualize the difference in dialogue with those two types of clients.
spk08: Well, starting with sponsors, sponsors are ready to go. You know, they have a lot of dry powder. As we said, it's $3.4 trillion, and that is, I mean, certainly I can't remember there ever being that kind of a balance of powder ready to go. And I think a lot of the sponsors are really thinking about things. I can tell you personally that I've been in several conversations with sponsors who really are looking at deals that are larger on the large side for them that they think are really interesting and they'd like to do. And they're waiting for an environment they think is stable enough, solid enough so that they could launch them. So I would say that sponsors are really ready to go. They really are thinking that the environment will come to them, and I think that most of the sponsors are really very, very active at creating opportunities that they think will be very good for their investors. In terms of corporates, the corporates haven't stopped their strategic discussions in their boardrooms. I can just tell you that we have been and I've been in many boardrooms over the last month or two where there have been discussions about real deals that are actually quite defining for these companies. And those deals have not been basically canceled. They've been put on hold watching the environment come. So I can easily see that if the environment really stabilizes, I could easily see that the deal business could really pick up quite quickly because there's been a lot of activity analyzing things. Right now, though, I don't think a lot of boards have an appetite to be stepping into a market that they think is so uncertain. And so that's why we're seeing things slow down. Now, you are seeing some big deals that are getting announced and situations that are happening, but they're fewer and further between. And some of the things that we're seeing are big, big deals. Others, the smaller, middle-sized deals aren't happening quite as much. But I think what we all see is that there is a backlog of deals that could happen if the market turns and looks to be stabilizing. And so my own point of view is that sponsors are really ready to go, and I think that corporates really haven't canceled the things that they've been looking at. They're just waiting also. So we'll see. As the environment starts to firm up, I could easily see things really taking off and certainly getting much busier.
spk11: Okay, thank you for taking my questions.
spk05: Our next question is from the line of Jim with Seaport Global.
spk07: Hey, good morning. Maybe talking about the internal promotes, obviously your largest class, I think that translates to 22% growth in advisory, got some Ds. And it does seem like a good chunk of them were in capital advisory. So how do we think about the different, I guess, productivity rates of, I guess, internal promotes versus external hires, and then also capital advisory versus more traditional M&A?
spk08: Well, I'll start with Capital Advisory. Yeah, we did have quite a few Capital Advisory promotes. And honestly, the reason is because we have an extraordinarily strong group of people. And that business is a very, very strong business. And so one of the things that we've really taken pride in and cried very hard to do is become a firm that really promotes from within as much as we can. In many of our businesses, we have some very, very high-quality talent. And so I must say, one of the things that I feel best about is when we're able to hire really strong people from within and allow them to actually become leaders in the organization. It's a great message to the organization. It motivates everybody at all levels. And I think it's a really powerfully positive thing for the firm. In terms of the capital advisory businesses, they're very good businesses. We really have never broken out productivity per banker per save. Sometimes you all run the numbers yourselves and see these things, but we don't. But I would say that, you know, the capital advisory businesses are very busy, and so you can imagine that there's a, you know, quite a strong productivity level. In terms of the ramp, you asked about the ramp between talent that we bring in laterally versus talent that we promote. Generally, I think the talent you bring in laterally, they're at a level where they are at A-level talent. That's the reason we promoted them. They're going to probably ramp faster than the people we promote. Having said that, we are really thoughtful and I think try to be very, very rigorous about the people we promote. And so I would say that personally, I feel very comfortable that every single partner that we the person that we promote to partner is somebody that we believe and I believe are going to be producing at the level of the other partners at the firm. Obviously, not every partner produces at the same level. Some partners are more than others. Some of our promotes, I think, are going to be the stars of our organization in two or three years. I mean, they're really... in my opinion, that good. But I do think that lateral probably ramps faster than internal promotes because the internal promotes are just still growing. They're people we've identified. They're producing at a very good level. That's why they got promoted. But they may not be quite at the level of the A-plus talent that we would be bringing in laterally. That's helpful.
spk07: And just maybe as a follow-up, switching gears to the buyback, You did about 20% of the capacity in the first quarter. Is that how you're thinking about it, that, you know, in four to five quarters you can utilize the entire buyback, or is it going to be just quarter by quarter determining the amount of cash flow you have?
spk04: Hey, Jim, it's Celeste.
spk07: Hey, Celeste.
spk04: Yeah, it will be really dependent on the environment and the free cash flow generated by the business. We still do have shares that we need to buy back to offset the RSU issuance that we did in the first quarter, so... you know, probably a couple hundred million of dollars of what we need to buy back to offset the RSU dilution. And then we'll, you know, as we said, we generally deploy our free cash flow in a one-quarter lag, so you know, as the year goes, so will our buybacks go? We typically authorize for a multi-year period. We obviously, because of the strength of last year, we're able to do a lot more very quickly, but it will really be dependent on the environment. As you know, we want to ensure that we have cash available to do the things we want to do and invest in our business and make sure that we're protecting the franchise in all environments.
spk07: Okay, thanks.
spk05: Our next question is from with Morgan Stanley.
spk02: Hi, good morning. John, maybe a follow-up to your comments on sponsor and strategic activity. How do you think that the Fed actions impact this? So the last time we saw an elevated level of uncertainty in early 2020, things deteriorated for a couple of quarters, and then you saw a sharp rebound as we got into the back half of 2020. So how much muscle memory do you think there is from that time forward? you know, are sponsors and other clients actively engaged and looking for opportunities? Or, you know, would you say that the last time the Fed actions were a tailwind and this time we don't have that tailwind any longer, so things could take a little bit longer to rebound?
spk08: Thanks, man. And I think it's a really interesting question. In my career watching these things over many, many, you know, I would say that Fed Actions and the way the government plays does have what I would call intermediate term effect on the merger markets and on activity levels. Having said that, I'll make a general statement, which is that as the participants in the merger market get used to the levels that are set up, they begin to start going back into the water and start looking aggressively at deals. Having said that, I want to be careful because we all know that in the sponsor business, what it costs to actually finance a deal does impact their economics. And I've had several conversations with sponsors who say, I will absolutely do this particular deal at this level because but it's getting more expensive as rates go up, and I'm really starting, and I will reach a point where I can't do the deal because I can't get the economics I want. So I want to be direct and say the sponsor business will be sensitive to how high rates go. We've always said that access to capital is more important than rates within reason. We don't know how high rates are going to actually go, we clearly know what we think the Fed's going to do. My own personal view is that it's going to be really what you said, which is that we'll have a momentary lull as rates kind of try and find a point where they get stable, and then you could see people really getting much more aggressive about merger deals. I think that from everything I see, and this is just a personal opinion, I think that that the participants in the merger market will go slower as there is uncertainty and volatility. But when there becomes more certainty as to where things start to settle and people feel like there's access to capital and people start to have buyers and sellers' expectations coming closer together, I could see the deal market coming back. So I'm optimistic in the medium term. I feel really good about that. But obviously, as you say, things can change. And, you know, we're in a volatile, uncertain environment. And I've not seen one that I have felt is as volatile and uncertain in quite some time. Obviously, you know, the downturn in 2008 and, you know, the financial crisis was one that we all lived through that we saw was, in many respects, as uncertain and as volatile as this. Some would say maybe even more. But I think that my opinion is that there is reason to believe that there will be a stabilizing and that the deal business will come back in a medium-term type of period.
spk02: That's great, Carlo. Thanks so much for that fulsome answer. I also wanted to ask about what you're seeing geographically. Is the U.S. better or similar to the U.K. in terms of the conversations you're having? And how does the current situation impact your expansion plans in Europe? I know that that was one of your four key growth areas. Has the current situation in the region changed any of your plans there?
spk08: Man, you know, from my perspective, the current situation has not dampened at all what I think is a very important initiative for us, which is to really continue to invest and grow in Europe. And, in fact, I would say that my dialogues over in Europe in terms of the type of people that we're talking to right now and looking at are probably even larger or even greater and more numerous and more serious than we've been in the past. I would say that, and I've been over a couple of times very recently to actually talk to some candidates, I would say that we're I would say doubling down is the wrong word, but we're increasing our activity level because we see some really good people there that fill some of the needs that we've been really yearning to actually fill. And so I think that in terms of the recruiting and filling out our plans there, I feel actually excited that we're actually going to make some real progress. In terms of the deal side, so we – In Europe, it really depends. Our business is more geared toward the UK, as you all know. And the UK is less impacted than some other parts of Europe. We have a pretty good activity level over in Europe, just driven by UK. We have some very, very strong dialogues in the sectors that we're in. And I actually think that in terms of the impairment that the current environment is having on the business, It's not a major impairment for us right now. So I think our European business is actually quite robust. I feel quite constructive about how it's going to deliver over the next quarter or two. We'll have to see. As I said, there's uncertainty as you get further out than three months. But I think that the activity level is good. Not a lot different from my perspective than what we're seeing in the U.S., but clearly, you know, people are going to go slow. It's not like I really don't want to leave the impression that I think that we have a really robust environment over in Europe because obviously it's impacted maybe even more than the U.S., with respect to the tremendous uncertainty over there. But I do think that what we're seeing is activity levels that are actually quite good.
spk02: Great. Thanks so much.
spk05: Our next question is from the line of Steven Chewbacca with Wolf Research.
spk10: Good morning. This is Brendan O'Brien filling in for Steven. So the commentary on the backlog was encouraging given the macro uncertainty, but was hoping you could provide a bit of context around the strength of the backlog today relative to both the start of the year and this time last year. Just trying to reconcile your commentary with what we're seeing in the public data, which shows backlogs are down pretty meaningfully so far.
spk08: Well, as we said last year at this time and we're saying again, you know, our backlogs are strong. We never really differentiate between levels of our backlog, other than trying to give you an indication at the time that we make the statement as to where it is. What I want to be clear about is what I said, which is that we really don't have a great view more than three or four months out right now, just because there is just so much uncertainty. Having said that, from what we see in our backlog, it's strong. As you know, though, backlogs only really predict what you think you're going to do. What they don't do is say what actually is going to happen because deals can either elongate and not get done, they can be put on hold, lots of things can happen. But right now, you know, our backlog is strong and we feel like it's really what it was, you know, when we made the statement, and it would be very hard for me, nor could I really do, say, you know, right now is different, or, you know, really give you a discernible, exact view of our backlog right now versus this time last year, or this time and the year before. But we feel, you know, we feel like it's everything that we would want it to be in terms of the opportunity that we have with clients and the dialogues that we're having. So I hope that's helpful. I can't give you the specific on the backlog nor the exactitude on the backlog that you're looking for, but I can tell you that we're feeling like the dialogues we're having are quite strong.
spk10: I appreciate the color there, John. And then as a follow-up, on the underwriting business, considering the market backdrop, the results there were quite encouraging and were well above the levels you were running at prior to the pandemic, implying pretty significant share gains. I want to get the sense as to what you view as a sustainable run rate for that business in a more normal environment. given these share gains and the continued build-out of the Converse business and the like?
spk08: Well, let me make an overall statement, and then I'll ask Celeste to talk a little bit about the run rate. We continue to build that business, and we believe that's a real opportunity for us because we've got excellent research, we've got really strong players who we are positioning in equity capital markets. And in very specific sectors, we have really strong bankers who are able to really give good advice and help clients move forward. And I think one of the things that we've shown in a lot of the underwritings that we've been is that we actually add value. We may not be a big bulge racket firm, but where we're involved... we really are able to add value, whether it's market intelligence, whether it's judgment as a deal person, whether it's really understanding the buyers and sellers of specific security. And so I think that our aspiration is to continue to move up in the overall league tables for underwriting. I think this quarter we were somewhere, I think we were at 18. We had a really strong quarter in terms of health care I think we really have an aspiration to move as close to the top ten as we possibly can. We think we can get close, but we're really working hard for that. We are not hesitating when we find an A-level talent on the equity capital market side who we think will really help us move forward. We are actually going to pull the trigger and hire those people. We have a very strong head of equity capital markets, Christy Grippe, who is, I think, a really inspired leader and very helpful in terms of thinking about exactly where we want to invest. I think that our business is actually making real progress. So maybe this is what you were saying, but I'm just affirming. We feel very comfortable that we are making good progress in that business. We actually have a vision for what we think we can do in terms of value-add capability and really the impact we can have on transactions for our clients. And we're going to continue to try to push that forward. And as I said, we're going to continue to invest. Do you want to say?
spk04: Yeah, and just to reiterate, John mentioned we want to get close to or within or around the top 10. We think given our business and lack of balance sheet, that's a reasonable place for us if we continue to execute. And we've had, as John said, a lot of success been very focused on matching up, you know, the resources that will, you know, can lead to deals and very, you know, the leadership from Christy has led to a lot more organization around the pitching and we're really, we're seeing a lot, you know, where we show up, we're seeing a lot of success. We're pitching and we're winning and we feel we're excited about the momentum there.
spk10: Thanks. Thank you both for your color there and I appreciate it.
spk08: Thanks, Ben.
spk05: Our next question is from the line of Michael Brown with KBW.
spk09: Hi, good morning. Good morning. Maybe I'll just follow up on the equity capital markets side of the business there. John, I got your comments about the market and it sounds like it could bounce back in the second or maybe the third quarter here. Just wanted to hear what your thoughts are in terms of which sectors or aspects of the ECM market could be the first out of the gate here once the window opens up.
spk08: Well, it's a really good question. My own point of view is that As you said, the equity market can move very fast in terms of opening up. I mean, I think that one of the interesting things is our first quarter, in the beginning of the first quarter, it went really slowly. And then all of a sudden, there was a couple-week period where things just became acceptable. The market seemed to be open. And boom, we did a number of deals. And it was really quite exciting that it happened so quickly. From our perspective, as you know, we have a very strong healthcare business. We also are investing a lot in our tech business. I would say that what we see is that healthcare and tech are both businesses or sectors that really do need capital. And those businesses will actually go to try and start monetizations and raising money as quickly as they can. As you know, especially in biotech, those companies need cash and they need it on a pretty regular basis. And so the minute the market is open, they'll hit that market. But also there's a number of sectors like consumer, and fintech where you really see companies that are lined up and ready to move. And so I'd say there are a number of sectors that could actually be ready to go and are loading up. And I think that a lot of it centers on the new opportunity sectors, biotech, cleantech, fintech, and regular tech and software. I mean, I think you're going to see those sectors lining up to try and hit the market when it opens.
spk09: Okay, great. So it sounds like it's broad-based end-of-demand there. Yeah. So another element of the market that I guess we didn't touch on in terms of the advisory market is the SPAC market. And it looks like there's more than 600 SPACs out there still hunting for deals. That part of the market certainly has been a lot more challenged in recent months and quarters, particularly from the regulatory side, but just wanted to check in and get a pulse check on that market and what are your expectations there for how those SPACs could contribute to the advisory activity as we look out here to the balance of 2022?
spk08: Well, we have quite a robust set of opportunities in the D-SPAC process, which you mentioned was a very large number of companies that are looking to basically buy companies in D-SPAC. As you know, or I'm sure you know, we don't play as much in the IPOs of SPACs, but what I would say is that the regulatory changes and overlay for SPACs, I believe, are going to slow down a lot of the SPAC activity because there's going to be a level of scrutiny and diligence that is required from some of the new regs that is actually going to change how easy it is to do the SPACs and also what I would call is the advantage of a SPAC or the relevant advantage of a SPAC versus traditional methods of monetizations and M&A. And so I would say that the SPAC structure is here to stay. I think you will continue to see SPACs that are coming out. I think it's going to be hard for all of these SPACs that, as you said, it was 600. I didn't even know it was that many. I thought it was more in the 400 to 500. But I think it's going to be hard for all of those SPACs to actually find places to, in effect, de-SPAC because it's just such a big number. And I think that it's going to take a great deal for the market. But beyond that, I think the regulatory overlay is going to slow a lot of things down, and it's going to put a higher standard on a lot of the participants in the market. And I think that in and of itself is going to have somewhat of a dampening effect. And so I think the SPAC market is going to become smaller and less active, but it's not going away. It's a structure that works, and there are going to be people who do that structure, and the SPACs that are out there are not going to give up until they have to. They'll want to try and find a place to de-SPAC.
spk09: Okay, great. Thanks for all the color there, John.
spk05: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the one key on your touchtone phone. Our next question is from the line of Jeff Hart with Piper Sandler.
spk04: Hey, Jeff, we can't hear you if you're on the line.
spk05: Jeff, your line is open. Please check your mute button.
spk03: Yep, that was it. I had mute pushed. Sorry about that. Congratulations on another really strong quarter. A couple of questions left for me. One, and this may be tough to answer, but on the M&A outlook, you sounded a fairly positive tone despite the step up in macro uncertainty and market volatility. When do you become more concerned that kind of this near-term headwinds turn into more kind of sustained cyclical downturn? What should we be watching for there?
spk08: Well, I think we're all watching carefully. I don't want you to get the impression that I am irresponsibly buoyant about the environment for the next, you know, 6 to 12 months because I, like you, am looking at what's happening and trying to evaluate exactly what it all means. So I want to make sure that I'm, you know, that I'm clear that as much as we feel like we're in a good position right now, There's a lot that is uncertain and I am watching it just like you are trying to assess what that all means. Feel like we're well positioned. In terms of cyclical downturn, there are a lot of things that could drive a cyclical downturn. Clearly people's loss of confidence in kind of the economy and the markets. So far we've seen economies that have recovered really well from the COVID. And I think that what we've seen is that people have really been quite enthusiastic about how corporates are going to respond and continue to respond as the market goes up. To the extent we have a real recession that is driven maybe by interest rate increases or a lack of confidence by CEOs and pulling back from investing, that could really have an impact and it could create some cyclicality. So I think there's a real possibility that happens. At this moment, I don't see it, and I'm not thinking it's going to happen, but I definitely think it's a possibility. So I just want to make sure that I'm clear about the fact that whereas we feel comfortable that we're on solid footing right now, Really, there's so much uncertainty anything can happen, and I just want to make sure that we all will together get back together in three months on this call, and we can talk about exactly what we're seeing next. But right now, I think it's solid. I think we will continue to see some recovery. I do think the markets will be reasonable. But let's all understand that there's a lot of uncertainty right now.
spk03: Okay, thanks. And finally, thinking about kind of the underwriting and I guess the capital advisory, capital markets advisory business, you know, with your exposures there, can you talk a bit about current trends you're seeing in the financing markets? And I'm thinking more about the demand side, right, the availability of financing as opposed to the issuer side, you know, those companies willing to try and raise capital.
spk08: Well, I think that The buy side is watching really carefully because the last thing the buy side wants to do in a market where there's so much volatility is to go big into places where there could be immediate weakness and therefore be putting together portfolios that show loss immediately. with a very volatile market and very hard to make it back. So my own point of view, and this is really a personal opinion, is that you're going to see, especially with the funds that are actually making their decisions day to day and week to week about what they want their portfolios to look like, you're going to see people being more careful right now because the market is uncertain and there is volatility. And I think there are going to be a lot of smart investors who pull back and want to watch and see what happens. I don't think you're going to see some of the big... There was a time when everybody wanted to go all into the FANG and they would just basically buy really big into tech. And we've seen that there's been some uncertainty in that sector along with all the other sectors right now. There's been a lot of bouncing around. So I think that My own opinion is that you'll see BuySide go more carefully and be a little bit more restrained. That's my thought.
spk04: Thank you, everybody. We'll see you in three months.
spk05: We're approaching the end of a lot of time. I would like to turn the floor to John Weinberg for closing comments.
spk08: Thank you all for plugging in. We really appreciate your spending the time with us. We'll see you or speak to you in three months. Thank you very much.
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