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spk15: Thank you for standing by and welcome to Extra Space Storage Inc's second quarter 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. I would now like to hand the call over to Jeff Norman, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk18: Thank you, Lateef. Welcome to Extra Space Storage's second quarter 2023 earnings call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risk and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filings with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review. Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today, August 4, 2023. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call. And I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Margolis, Chief Executive Officer.
spk11: Thanks, Jeff, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We have had a busy three months, and a lot has happened since our first quarter earnings call. Operationally, same-store occupancy remained high through the second quarter. Although rental volume was down year over year, vacates also remained muted, allowing us to improve occupancy sequentially each month through the quarter, ending June at a very healthy 94.5%. Existing customer health remains strong, with ARs and bad debt levels remaining low, and customer acceptance of rate increases remain steady. Our strategy coming into the year was to maintain high occupancy in order to enhance pricing power to new customers as we moved into the leasing season. This strategy was effective through May, and we improved rental rates sequentially and started to tighten the year-over-year negative delta and achieved rate growth to new customers. However, new customer rates have not improved meaningfully in June and July, both of which are typically high-volume rental months in a busy leasing season. The miss in same-store revenue in June was offset by lower than expected same-store expenses, allowing us to remain on budget for property NOI for the first half of the year. From an FFO perspective, we also met our internal budgets for the first and second quarter. As we look forward, we expect the impact of lower new customer rates in the summer months to weigh on revenue growth in the back half of the year. Our initial guidance assumed that we would fully close our negative year-over-year new customer rental rate growth gap by July, and that new customer rate growth would be positive through the end of the year. Year-to-date, we have not gained that pricing power and now believe new customer rate growth will remain negative year-over-year further into 2023. As a result, we have reduced our 2023 same-store revenue expectations. Our lower estimated property revenue, together with a higher forward interest rate curve, also reduced our full-year outlook for core FFO. Needless to say, we are disappointed that rental rate growth to new customers has been weaker this leasing season, and we never liked the idea of having to reduce our outlook. With that said, we are also careful to maintain perspective about where extra space and the storage industry actually sit today. First, occupancy levels remain just below 95%, which excluding the last couple of years, are as high as we have ever seen. Second, new customer rates, while not as strong as last year, remain 15% higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Third, new supply continues to be manageable, and the headwinds to future new development are increasing. And finally, our external growth drivers continue to fire on all cylinders, with 54 additions to our third-party management platform in the quarter and 102 stores added through two quarters. On July 20th, we closed our merger with LifeStores. adding over 1,200 stores to our portfolio, which today has over 3,500 stores spanning 43 states. I am proud of both teams who have worked tirelessly to complete the merger to create a stronger portfolio, platform, and company. We are all focused in working hard to achieve a smooth integration. So far, I am very pleased with how seamlessly the integration is progressing and how we are already finding ways to create value and unlock synergies. Let me provide a couple examples. In the two weeks since we closed the transactions, we have onboarded and trained over 2,700 LSI employees and already transitioned over 900 stores to our point of sale system with the remaining stores to follow next week. This move to our point of sale system is critical because among other things, this platform allows us to implement our digital marketing and pricing strategies, which will allow us to begin to optimize performance at these stores. And second, last week, S&P Global raised our credit rating to a triple B plus to reflect our larger and stronger company which will have an immediate and future benefit on our cost of debt capital. So while we have just closed and we know it is still early, we are excited as we begin to realize the many future opportunities this merger creates for Extra Space and our shareholders. We will continue to give updates on the integration and performance of the life storage assets as well as our progress towards our 100 million in minimum estimated synergies. After some short-term dilution expected during the remainder of 2023, we believe we will be at least at our underwritten synergy run rate early in 2024, with additional upside beyond as we continue to optimize the performance of the combined company and capture additional synergies not quantified in the original underwriting. It is still a great time to be in storage, and I believe the future of extra space remains bright. I will now turn the time over to Scott.
spk19: Thanks, Joe, and hello, everyone. As Joe mentioned, we had another solid quarter, meeting our internal same-store NOI and FFO projections. The modest miss in property revenue in June was offset by expense savings and other small beats in interest income, GNA, and higher management fees were offset by higher interest expense and lower tenant insurance. After tightening year-over-year achieved rate to new customers to negative 3% in March, we backed off on rates and averaged approximately negative 8% in April, which immediately drove higher rental volumes. We saw similar traction in May but then saw rental volume slow in June and July, despite keeping new customer rates down approximately 10% year over year. On the expense front, we are performing well with minimal payroll and property tax growth and marketing expense remaining in line with our expectations. However, we have experienced additional pressure in insurance expense premiums in the property and casualty markets with average premium increases in our June renewal of approximately 50%. Turning to the balance sheet, we completed a $450 million bond offering in the quarter and completed a recast of our credit facility, bringing revolving capacity to approximately $2 billion in preparation for the life storage merger. We also closed on a term loan of $1 billion with a delayed draw feature that we accessed at closing to pay off life storage's line of credit, private placement debt, and other closing costs. In last night's earnings release, we updated our 2023 guidance ranges for same-store growth expectations and core FFO, which do not include the impact of the recently closed merger with life storage. Given the tight timing between closing the merger on July 20th and yesterday's release, we provided standalone guidance for extra space, excluding the impact of the merger, with separate details about the anticipated dilution from the merger in the remainder of 2023. Despite meeting our internal projections for same-store NOI and core FFO, we have reduced our forward-looking estimates given the lower than forecasted pricing power and rental volume experienced in June and July as well as the upswing in the forward interest rate curve. Our outlook for same-store revenue growth, which does not include the LSI assets, is now 2.5% to 3.5%. We have also reduced our same-store expense range to 3.5% to 4.5% due to better-than-expected payroll and property tax resulting in a revised NOI range of 2% to 3.5%. Our expectation remains that the rate of revenue growth deceleration continues to flatten in the back half of the year with easing comparables. Our core FFO range, excluding the impact of the LSI merger, is reduced to $8.15 to $8.35 per share, driven primarily by lower property revenues and higher anticipated interest rates. For the life storage merger, we estimate initial dilution in 2023 as we integrate and optimize the portfolio to capture our anticipated synergies. We estimate 10 to 15 cents of dilution per share in 2023, and we believe that we will be at our $100 million run rate in early 2024. Details of the second quarter performance of life storage have been provided in our supplemental package, and we will provide updates on the performance of the LSI assets going forward. We continue to believe storage as an asset class is among the most resilient in the REIT space. We believe our operating platform and highly diversified portfolio has become even stronger through the life storage merger, and that is positioned for outsized growth. With that, Lateef, let's open it up for questions.
spk15: As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. Again, that's star 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith of UBS.
spk09: Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. It seems like the largest driver of the reduced guidance is that street rates didn't converge with last year, which is weighing on results in the back half. So two-parter here. One, what is assumed for street rates for the back half of the year? And two, you know, this is expected to weigh on the results in the back half of 23. What is the expected impact from this on 2024 operating metrics?
spk11: So I think we see the biggest difference we see in the back half of the year, frankly, is the COPs get a lot easier. So we kind of see a continuation of modest growth, but with much easier COPs.
spk08: What was the second question, Michael?
spk09: So you see an impact on... The street rates are weighing on the second half of 23. Is there any impact from that into 2024?
spk11: So, you know, we're not talking, we don't have any guidance. We're not talking about guidance to 2024 yet. But, you know, clearly where you end 23 is your, sorry to give a stupid answer, is a starting point for 24.
spk09: So, you know, that will be the impact. So, and just to clarify on the first question, like, by growth, you mean you're expecting a slow convergence of 23 street rates to 22 levels, and you expect that to converge sometime in the back half? Do you have any visibility, like, you know, is that early? Is that late? Like, just looking for some just relative placement there.
spk11: Yeah, we had thought by June, July, we would have had that conversions point. And now we think it's further into 2023. Okay, got it.
spk09: And then my second question here is that given that a majority of the revenue synergies are driven from revenue, or given that a majority of the entire synergies are driven from revenue, what gives you confidence that you can achieve your $100 million goal? run-rate synergies in early 2024. Thanks.
spk11: So, on the revenue side, you know, as I mentioned in my comments, we have 900-plus stores on our point-of-sale soft threes, and the ECR notices have started going out, and we have a very detailed plan, a customer by customer, when did they get their last one, where their rate is on street rate, not to overload any store. But that has started. And next week, we'll have all the rest of the stores on Breeze, and those ECRI notices will go out. And the confidence we have is because we've done this all the time. We take over stores all the time that have rates below where we want them, and we send out ECRI notices, and we know the acceptance rate and the churn rate, and it gives us a high degree of confidence that's going to work. On the insurance side, once we're on breeze, new customers will purchase insurance from our platform, which is at a higher rate than LSI's program was, and existing customers won't be converted until January 2024. Those notices will go out. And that delay is for both regulatory reasons and notice requirements in the existing LSI contract with their insurance provider. And then the third biggest kind of segment of the 100 million is the G&A side. And we've now, you know, sharpened our pencils, hired who we want to hire, redone budgets department by department, and have, you know, greatly increased confidence we will exceed the underwritten G&A savings.
spk09: And apologies for keeping that going, but just to clarify on the ECRIs, I think you said in the script that customers are continuing to absorb them. That said, ECRIs can be highly dependent on the trajectory of street rates. So just the trajectory of street rates, is that going to impact your ability to pass along ECRIs? in the near to intermediate term?
spk11: So, I don't think that's going to be a significant impact. So, you're right that street rate is a factor in the quantum of the ECRI that's given. But the gap between the rate at the LSI stores and the rate at the competitive extra space stores gives us confidence that there's still plenty of meat on that bone.
spk17: Got it. Thank you very much.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question. It comes from the line of Jeff Spector of Bank of America.
spk03: Great. Thank you. First question, I guess just taking a step back and listening to the comments, you know, on what you thought would happen versus what actually happened to understand and feel comfortable with the new guidance. Like why did you, what was, what were the systems telling you, let's say in the spring or early summer, that you would close the gap to actually what happened, and then compare that to now, what the systems are saying for the rest of the year?
spk19: Yeah, Jeff. So what we were seeing earlier in the year was we were seeing our street rates or our achieved rates to new customers steadily moving up, and we were seeing that our occupancy gap was maintaining what we were expecting. was pretty consistent through May. As we moved into June, we found that in order to maintain our occupancy, we needed to lower rates. And that continued into July. And so into July, we were negative 10.5%, whereas in the second quarter, our rates were averaged about 8% negative to new customers. So just that change in customers shopping more and being much more rate sensitive is what caused us to change our outlook going forward.
spk03: Okay, thanks. And then on the rental volume comment, Scott, I think you said rental volumes slowed in June and July, obviously. I guess trying to tie that into one of your competitors' comments on record move-ins, I guess what is the health of, you know, the top of the funnel, like new customer traffic? What are we seeing today, let's say, as we started August? And how should we think about that in terms of seasonality as we head into the coming months?
spk11: So there's plenty of self-storage customers out there for the larger operators to capture. We're at 94.5% occupied. Obviously, we can keep our stores full. The challenge is There's not sufficient enough customers to give us pricing power. We can't move rates and maintain that type of occupancy to the level we want it to. So, you know, our year-over-year rentals were down 9%. In the second quarter, so were life storages for comparison purpose. But vacates were also down a little less than that, but a similar number. So there's customers out there. Our platform can capture them, but we don't have the pricing power we expected.
spk19: And Jeff, maybe where we vary a little bit from some of the other reports that have been out there is while they may see increases in rentals, Some of it could be what happened last year and also what their new rate is moving in. And I think some of them reported a wider gap than what we have even experienced.
spk03: And then, I'm sorry, but just one follow-up to Michael's question on the, I guess you discussed the easier comps. I think you said into the end of this year. I guess, can you provide like a specific month or timeframe and do the easier comps continue into 24?
spk19: Yeah, so the easier comps do continue into 24 as rates moderated in the back half of last year in terms of our rates to new customers. They continue to moderate it back half of last year and into this year. In addition, you have an easier revenue comp this year than you had from last year. Our revenue growth, the first half of 2022, was almost 22%.
spk17: Thank you. Thanks, Jeff. Thanks, Jeff.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI.
spk29: Thanks. Yes, good morning. I guess it seems like the light switch went off in June and July, and I'm just curious, can you guys put your finger on what sort of changed customer behavior that much to change the pricing dynamic in June?
spk11: I don't think we can. You know, we had an odd March. We couldn't figure that out as well. We've talked about that. We were feeling really good at the end of May. And there was a distinct change in customer behavior in June and July. And I would be guessing if I told you I knew what it was.
spk29: I mean, do you think it's housing related? Is that maybe just a lack of movement in housing creating more, you know, less demand than you would have thought?
spk11: I think housing is certainly a factor, right? That's one important component of demand for self-storage, and we all know the housing market story. I think another factor is consumers don't have as much money in their pocket, right? The savings rate is way down. All the extra COVID dollars that were floating around have gone away. There's inflation in the economy. I think that consumers have fewer dollars as well.
spk29: Okay, and I guess secondly, if you kind of look at the implied guidance for the second half of the year, if I'm doing my math right, I think the revenue growth is kind of 0% to 2%, which compares to the 2.7% you did in the second quarter. So maybe, Scott, just help us think through, like, you know, what gets you to kind of the upper end of the range and what gets you to the lower end of the range? Is it more occupancy-driven? Is it more – The new rates, the customers, the slowdown in ECRI, like, well, what are the big drivers between kind of the low end and high end?
spk19: The biggest drivers, I think, are when we move positive in terms of achieved rates to new customers. And as we mentioned before, we do have an easier comp from last year. But I think that where you fall in that guidance is when those new customer rates move positive and you start to have a little bit of pricing power to new customers.
spk29: So I'm sorry, is there any of that embedded in the guidance for the back half of the year? Or is it like at the high end that assumes that and the low end that doesn't?
spk19: Yeah, so the low end assumes that you don't get pricing power. The high end assumes that you start to get some of that pricing power. And it's probably more in the back half at the end of the year. where you start to see the benefit of it. Any pricing power you got in August, you might start to see some benefit later in the year. If you don't get pricing power until November, December, you're not going to see anything this year.
spk16: Got it. Okay, thank you. That's it.
spk17: Thanks, Dave.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Juan Santabria of BMO Capital Markets.
spk04: Hi, just a quick follow-up to start on Steve's last question. When you say pricing power is that you're able to raise street rates sequentially or more just benefiting from easier comps and the decline year-over-year will go away?
spk19: It's more the year-over-year comp. We have actually been able to move street rates sequentially as we've moved through this year, but the year-over-year comp has made them negative.
spk05: Okay, and then just a regular way question.
spk04: Just curious, is there anything by MSA or region that's where you saw softness, like are the coasts performing better than some of the previously high-flying sunbelt markets? Or just curious on any commentary you could provide around that.
spk11: I think it's too much of a generalization to say the Sun Belt is weak and the coasts are strong or anything like that, right? Some of our best markets, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, continue to outperform portfolio averages. Those are Sun Belt markets. L.A. continues to be good. And some of the weaker markets, frankly, are markets that put up 30% growth last year. So it's hard to do that several years in a row. So they appear weaker. But I think the important thing to remember is markets will cycle in a non-correlated factor, non-correlated manner. And because of that, it's important to be as diversified as possible. So you always have some markets that are on the upswing, and you always have some markets that that maybe are coming off of the upswing. And one of the reasons we like the LSI merger is because it further diversifies our portfolio and reduces our concentration in our top markets.
spk04: And then just one last one, if you'll humor me. Anything on the churn front in terms of length of stay you're seeing be impacted as As you've seen kind of less top of funnel demand throughout the system. Worth noting that the one or two year length of stay decreasing or anything to that oak.
spk11: So the one or two year length to stay has decreased very slightly. We're still, you know, in the low 60% on the one year and. 46% or so on the two-year. You know, I think we are losing some of those long-term COVID tenants, but not all of them. But, you know, length of stay is still healthy. Our average vacating customer is almost 18 months. Their median is about seven and a half months. Those are great numbers as compared to pre-COVID.
spk12: Thanks, guys. Good luck. Thanks, Will.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas of KeyBank Capital Markets.
spk21: Hi, thanks. Appreciate the disclosure on LSI's same store. It looked like revenue and NOI growth decelerated. um, you know, quite a, quite a bit more than, than we would have anticipated. I'm not sure how that compares to what you were anticipating, but it was about a thousand basis points sequentially, um, during the quarter before the merger closed, you know, any, any sense on what happened during the quarter? And can you speak to the integration there and first steps around stabilizing growth in the life storage portfolio?
spk19: And maybe I'll speak to the results and Joe can take the integration piece. Um, First of all, they were still managing their properties, so clearly we couldn't go in and manage them the way we would have liked to. I think that what we saw was occupancy fell off more than we would have expected, and we would attribute that to them keeping rates too high in May and June. When they've lowered them, you've seen it move in a positive direction. In the month of July, they finished the month of July around 91%, so it ticked up slightly. but they did not see that busy season bump that we would have expected. And in terms of the integration, Joe?
spk11: So, you know, I spoke a little bit about the systems integration. That's going well, and, you know, we'll continue to work on that. Data transmission is going well. We still have some work to do there, but no hiccups. You know, people is not something you can just do in a couple weeks. It will take us a while to fully train the life storage managers on our way of doing things. They can all take rentals now and do the basics, if you will. But they'll continue to get better and better. And as they do, the performance will improve.
spk21: Okay. Do you expect to continue providing a breakout of the life storage same store portfolio and performance going forward through 24, I guess, until it's included in the same store in 25?
spk19: So, if not fully determined 24, we think it is likely because it's probably the best way to show the improvement. If you compare our same store pool to theirs, you should be able to see them outperforming due to them being on our systems. But I think it's likely, but no final decision yet. Okay.
spk21: And then I had a question around this environment here as it pertains to new supply. We've heard that starts are likely declining and could be materially lower moving forward here in the near term, which would be good for absorption of existing stores. As it pertains to the supply added over the last few years, a lot of that product leased up at an accelerated rate during the pandemic from some of the new demand related to the pandemic. Are assets in your system that leased up with a disproportionate amount of, I guess, COVID demand customers, are you seeing more pressure on move outs or different customer behavior than the stores that you've operated and that were stabilized for a period of time before the pandemic?
spk11: I don't think customers behave differently if they moved into a new store that just opened or whether they moved into a store that's been up and stabilized for a long time. They leave some point after their need for storage goes away. I think your thesis is right, right? We see a moderation of new supply, but at the same time, you know, we see markets that had kind of excess COVID demand that's going away that filled up new supply, and now that may be moderating, creating more availability.
spk21: Right. I guess that's my question. You know, the latter point that you just made, you know, are the assets – over the last several years, a couple thousand stores that were delivered beginning maybe in 2018 or 2019 through 2022, are you seeing those stores either a little bit more challenged or are they even in some markets maybe still struggling to find equilibrium in terms of rate as demand moderates and some of those renters move out?
spk17: So I'm sorry if I didn't answer that question clearly.
spk11: I think it's an asset by asset analysis. Certainly there are markets that are struggling because they had a lot of new supply delivered. It all got filled up during COVID. Now there's lesser demand. So maybe those markets are under a little more pressure. And I would give you Phoenix is a really good example of that. But I think it's a market analysis, not an asset analysis. It's not like all the excess COVID demand customers moved into the new property and all the regular customers moved into the existing properties. So the new properties are struggling more. The customers go everywhere and the markets perform similarly. I hope that makes sense.
spk19: Todd, you're probably seeing it a little bit more in rate than you are occupancy. We have been able to maintain the occupancy at those newer stores, but you have, you know, the ability to push rates has not been there.
spk17: Okay, got it. Thank you.
spk06: Thanks, Todd.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Smetis Rose of Citi.
spk04: Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you, the implied guidance through the back half for your same-store portfolio, is that sort of a similar guideline for what you're seeing for the LSI portfolio as well, or is it something meaningfully different?
spk11: We would expect the LSI portfolio to do better as we get their stores on our platform, that uplift to begin to occur.
spk04: Okay, so embedded in your dilution is better same store NOI for that portfolio through the back half of the year offset. That's one of the things that you've called out.
spk19: So there is some growth there, but not significant. Typically what happens is you bring things onto our portfolio is it takes a month or two as you bring things on. And so not a significant amount of increase, but we would expect those stores to start to benefit from the ECRI.
spk04: Okay. And then I just wanted to ask you on your third-party management platform, and maybe it's too soon, but I know that the economics were different for the LSI tenants. And I'm just wondering if you would expect most of them to come on board, even though you're I think you take a higher share, or do you think some will leave, or kind of what's embedded into your outlook on that side?
spk11: Yeah, I think that's a good description. So we've talked to all of the managed owners that have LSI managing their stores. And, you know, our expectation is that everyone will migrate to our economics, which are significantly better than LSI's economics, and also our kind of service levels. We run one program. Everyone's on the same program. LSI ran more of a customized program for their managed partners. And we will absolutely separate with some of those managed partners who don't want to work on our system. And that's fine, because our goal is not to have the most stores, but to have a, you know, efficient, profitable management program that works well for both parties. So we'll continue to, we'll Keep most, I think, and lose many, I think, as you said. But I'm very confident we'll continue to grow our management platform faster than anyone else in the industry.
spk19: Hey, Smeeds, one other point I would make there is I think there's been some narrative that we are going to lose some of these customers. And Life Storage actually added 17 stores during the quarter. So they've continued to add to their management portfolio through Q2.
spk15: Okay, thank you.
spk17: Thanks, Bates.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Keegan Carl of Wolf Research.
spk30: Yeah, thanks for the time, guys. So it's maybe big picture here. Just wondering if you could walk us through your view on the strategy to cut street rate around this time last year. One, do you think the strategy worked? Two, what's the plan for here? Because it seems it's had a lot of ripple effects throughout the space. It's created a more challenging operating environment for everyone.
spk19: I'm not sure we have that kind of power, first of all, to create that kind of environment. I think we typically react or based on the data that we're reviewing to maintain the occupancy and maintain the pricing power in terms of our existing customer rate increases. If you look at big picture, I think we were probably one of the earlier ones to move on rate. And I think everyone else eventually, you know, we'd like to have the hubris to think they copied us, but I think they probably saw the same thing in the data that we saw. And they moved on rates also to maintain occupancy.
spk11: I would also say that, you know, we don't guess at these strategies. We test them. pretty vigorously before we implement them and keep control groups so we know whether we're doing the right thing or if the situation changed. So because of that, I have a high degree of confidence we executed the right strategy.
spk30: Okay. And shifting gears here at Nary, I remember you guys mentioned that marketing spend was up materially in May and you weren't seeing the same results. So one, is it fair to assume that since you weren't seeing the results you wanted that you drastically reduced that in June? And I'm just curious how it translated in July and how you're thinking about marketing spend in the back half of the year.
spk11: Yeah, good memory. So we did run some tests during that time period with significantly higher marketing expense, and we didn't see the return on those dollars spent, so we pulled back. And we'll continue to test, as we always do, in what situations can we get an acceptable return on incremental marketing dollars. And whenever that's the case, we're happy to spend them. And if we can't get that return, we're not going to spend money for no reason at all.
spk30: Thanks for the time, guys.
spk17: Thank you.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Camden of Morgan Stanley.
spk28: Hey, thanks so much. Just two quick ones from me. So back to the question on sort of the top of the funnel demand. I think you talked about sort of things changing in June and July. where you can maintain occupancy but not sort of pricing power. So when I tie that into sort of the guidance ranges for the back half of the year on the same store revenue, how do we think about sort of the conviction or the potential upside and downside as you're going to the back half of the year on the revenue front? So what I mean by that is do you sort of need to see trends stabilize or get better in the next sort of two to three months to get there? Or what sort of baked into that? Thanks.
spk19: Yeah. So I think what we've seen early in the summer and in July is that there is demand. You just can't get the occupancy and the rate. As we move throughout this year, we have easier comparables from last year. And so that's where it gives us the confidence to be able to go with the numbers that we've done, that we've gone with. We think that it gets easier as we move through this year in terms of new customer rates. And so that's where we're confident. And again, as we mentioned before, where you are in that range is going to depend somewhat on how quickly we get some pricing power.
spk28: Right. And I guess my follow-up question I have is just because I think the guidance range is just 0% to 2%. The heart of my question was, like, is there a conviction that you can't go negative at some point, or is it just, you know, things just don't move that quickly? I'm just trying to figure out, like, rate of change here.
spk19: So if you look at the lower end of the guidance, I think it does imply that you could tick negative for a period of time in the back half of the year.
spk28: Got it. That's helpful. Last one, just on LSI, yeah, we noticed the occupancy – dip as well, and I think you explained that they kept maybe pricing higher. I just want to go back to the synergies guidance, because initially I think it was 60 million revenues, 40 million expenses, and you reiterated sort of, has that mix changed at all? Is it more, or is it sort of still the same? Because presumably the outlook for revenues have sort of shifted a little bit. Just trying to understand, is that 100 million still the same mix, or has that moved around a little bit? Thanks.
spk11: Yeah, it's a good question. Thank you. So we initially had four components of underwritten synergies. We had G&A, we had reduced marketing spend, we had increased store revenue, and we had tenant insurance. Tenant insurances stayed about the same. We feel better about G&A that we'll do better than that component. The marketing piece, we will not achieve. Since we did the underwriting, we have decided on pursuing a dual brand strategy, which we can discuss if you like. But the marketing savings was presumed to be under one brand. But we think that the revenue increase, the rental increase and revenue increase from two brands will more than offset the $15 million underwritten marketing savings, and will also save about $70 million or so of rebranding costs. So better in G&A, won't achieve the marketing savings, about the same in tenant insurance, and better at the property level.
spk28: super helpful. I think I'll follow up offline just to make sure I got that, but that's it for me. Thanks so much.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim of Truist.
spk24: Thank you. Just going back to the LSA topic, this year you're guiding towards 10 to 15 cents of dilution. I'm just curious, how should we think about that turning How should we think about that improving into next year? Just given the size of the portfolio, I think it's going to be pretty helpful for people to understand the earnings run rate from here on out.
spk19: Yeah, when we announced the deal, we said that it would be just under 1% accretive, and that assumed the full $100 million in synergies. So assuming we hit the run rate early next year, clearly it shouldn't be dilutive next year, and you should start achieving a portion of that 1% accretion. Now, as Joe mentioned, Some of these I think will hit earlier than others. I think G&A will start achieving some of that this year immediately. The marketing and revenue increases we'll start to achieve as we send out rate increases. You can't send them all out at day one. Some of these tenants received a rate increase a month ago. And then the last one is the tenant insurance, and that should be effective January 1st.
spk11: And we've also achieved non-underwritten synergies. We've got our rating upgrade, which will immediately save us on interest expenses this year and obviously on any future borrowings. We sold Warehouse Anywhere to that management team at closing, which takes that loss off the books. And lots of other smaller things that were not in our $100 million that we're starting to achieve.
spk24: Okay. And earlier in the call, you mentioned that street rates are 15% higher than 2019 levels. And when I look at the cumulative same-store revenue growth that you've achieved since 2019, it's closer to 30%, obviously not purely apples to apples. But I'm just trying to get a sense of, if street rates are up 15% since 2019 and revenue is up 30%, is there further risk of revenues, I guess, getting closer to that 15% mark?
spk19: So your difference between those two numbers is your existing customer rates are more than that 15%, and that's what's created the negative churn gap that we have today. Okay, got it.
spk22: All right, thank you.
spk17: Thank you, Ben.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Spencer Alloway of Green Street.
spk26: Thank you. Apologies if I missed this, but have you guys quantified the magnitude of ECRIs in the standalone LSI portfolio and EXR for 2Q and then through July?
spk19: So we have not quantified the LSI ECRIs other than the fact that we've said with the synergies, there is $50 million that has to do with ECRIs as well as potential occupancy upside. When we did the initial underwriting and the initial deck that went out with the acquisition, we showed two studies that we had done that showed a pretty significant gap between rate per square foot on their stores and our stores. And we did not assume that we closed that gap 100%. We assumed that we only closed about a third of that gap.
spk26: Okay, I'm sorry, did you quantify it for portfolio?
spk19: We did not quantify anything in terms of the back half or 2Q in terms of.
spk26: Okay, and then I know you guys have spent a lot of time in this call and thank you just providing color around the potential uplift you expect on operations from the LSI portfolio. But are there any concerns as it relates to the NOI kind of operating margin that you guys kind of hope to achieve with this integration, just as we started to see some material weakness in some of LSI's smaller secondary markets? Or said differently, are there any like structural or demographic headwinds in those markets that you think that maybe your scale or superior revenue management platform won't be able to overcome in the near term?
spk11: So it's a good question. I think we really look at this on a long-term basis. And are there going to be some markets that we adopted from LSI? You know, we weren't in Buffalo. How's Buffalo going to do? I'm not sure. Over the short term, they will be weaker and some will be stronger, sure. But what is really important is the increased diversification. And to have, you know, greater variability in where all the cash flows come from is just going to help take volatility out of returns. So, yeah, some markets will do better. Some markets will be worse. Market cycle through performance. But over the long term, it's going to be a benefit to the company.
spk23: Okay. Thanks so much.
spk15: Sure. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Hughes of Raymond James.
spk20: Hey, good afternoon.
spk21: So normally we see street rates are, I think, really only impacted by new supply, but deliveries have been pretty muted for the past few years. And I know you said in Keegan's question earlier that you don't think your strategy implemented a year ago impacted the industry. But the Extra Space brand is the second largest out there. So my question is, will you take a bit more of an introspective look and maybe be a little more careful about running these types of strategies in the future? Because I do think some of your peers, certainly smaller ones, might agree that the seeming price war we have today started a year ago, which did coincide with the strategy change.
spk11: So I think it's important to remember that even though, you know, Public and Extra Space and Cube and Life, you know, are the largest brands, it's still a highly fragmented industry. And we don't control these markets in any respect. We have many, many stores where most or all of our competitors are mom and pops and not REITs. So we only have one or two REIT competitors. So... We're going to continue to adopt strategies that we think produce the best long-term results for our shareholders and not really care about what it does to others.
spk21: I understand the fragmented nature of the market, but I think if you look at maybe the comparable products, an extra space property is, I think, different than say the gen one drive up mom and pop. So if that's your target consumer and you know, they want your product, that's multi-story air condition. They don't want that legacy property. Um, you know, your share of that market is much greater. And so I think maybe that's where some of, uh, my, my line of questioning came from that overall in the industry basis. Yes. I think the Extra Space brand, we all know the concentration, but I think on the actual like-for-like type of product competing for that type of customer, I do think you own a little more sway than you think. So that's my question.
spk11: I would respectfully disagree. I think our private competitors are not all Gen 1, you know, older. There's plenty of sophisticated private competitors. regional operators that have, you know, new store climate control that are very comparable to our stores. Their systems and their operating platforms aren't comparable to us at all. But from a tenant standpoint, the product is the same.
spk31: Okay. All right. Well, that's it for me. Appreciate it. And happy early birthday, Scott.
spk14: Thanks, Jonathan. Thank you, Jonathan.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from Juan Sanabria of BMO Capital Markets.
spk04: Hi. Thanks for the time. Just a couple quick follow-ups. Firstly, is there any update on Storage Express and how that transition is going and the rollout of the strategy?
spk11: Yeah, so, you know, Storage Express was a little harder, frankly, to put onto our systems than Life Storage because we had to put it on a system with a different operating model that we hadn't had programmed. But once they got onto our system, everything is working very well. And one of the reasons we're confident with the ECRI program for life storage is we just went through that ECRI program for Storage Express, and we saw how their customers accepted it. So in terms of integration, very well. Operating through six months of the year ahead of underwriting, which is good. Growth is a little slower than we underwrote as we scaled that back while we were focused on the LSI merger. So we've bought five or we've approved for purchase five remote stores, you know, less than $30 million. So smaller stores, 130 bucks a foot, but 7% yields in the first year. So, you know, once we can turn our full attention to growing this, we're excited about it. So good. Summary would be everything on track or ahead of track going well, just slower growth than we thought as we turned our attention to integrating life storage.
spk04: And just one more question for me, and I appreciate you guys are focused on maximizing revenue, but a lot of the conversation today has seemed to have talked about occupancy and maintaining occupancy and the importance of that. So just hoping you could square the two. I mean, is there a chance that maybe you're kind of hooked on the high occupancy? I mean, I know that's not the most elegant way to phrase it, but just would appreciate your thoughts there.
spk11: Yeah. So as I mentioned earlier, our strategies are based on results of testing that we do. And the results of those tests have led us to have a strong conviction that we want to have incrementally higher occupancies. We want to seek the longer-term customers, and both of those things come at the expense of initial rate and try to make that up through ECRI. So I apologize if we've spoken too much about occupancy, but it is a tool to maximize revenue.
spk06: Thank you.
spk15: Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Joe Margolis for closing remarks, sir.
spk11: Great. Thank you, everyone, for your time today. I want to emphasize and assure everyone that everyone here at our combined teams is very focused not only on integrating the companies but maximizing performance at our stores as difficult time. We are very, very excited about the future. We see a lot of tailwinds in 2024 and beyond as the underwritten and non-underwritten synergies from LSI hit the books, given the moderating delivery of new stores, given that we have $0.23 of dilution from lease-up stores that will come to the bottom line, that eventually interest rates will be lower, eventually the housing market will recover, and we will continue to grow our ancillary management bridge loan and insurance businesses. Thank you very much.
spk15: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.
spk17: You may now disconnect. you Thank you. Thank you.
spk15: Thank you for standing by and welcome to Extra Space Storage Inc's second quarter 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. I would now like to hand the call over to Jeff Norman, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk18: Thank you, Lateef. Welcome to Extra Space Storage's second quarter 2023 earnings call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risk and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filings with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review. Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today, August 4th, 2023. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call. And I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Margolis, Chief Executive Officer.
spk11: Thanks, Jeff, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We have had a busy three months, and a lot has happened since our first quarter earnings call. Operationally, same-store occupancy remained high through the second quarter. Although rental volume was down year over year, vacates also remained muted, allowing us to improve occupancy sequentially each month through the quarter, ending June at a very healthy 94.5%. Existing customer health remained strong, with ARs and bad debt levels remaining low, and customer acceptance of rate increases remained steady. Our strategy coming into the year was to maintain high occupancy in order to enhance pricing power to new customers as we moved into the leasing season. This strategy was effective through May and we improved rental rates sequentially and started to tighten the year over year negative delta and achieved rate growth to new customers. However, new customer rates have not improved meaningfully in June and July, both of which are typically high volume rental months in a busy leasing season. The miss in same store revenue in June was offset by lower than expected same store expenses allowing us to remain on budget for property NOI for the first half of the year. From an FFO perspective, we also met our internal budgets for the first and second quarter. As we look forward, we expect the impact of lower new customer rates in the summer months to weigh on revenue growth in the back half of the year. Our initial guidance assumed that we would fully close our negative year-over-year new customer rental rate growth gap by July, and that new customer rate growth would be positive through the end of the year. Year-to-date, we have not gained that pricing power and now believe new customer rate growth will remain negative year-over-year further into 2023. As a result, we have reduced our 2023 same-store revenue expectations. Our lower estimated property revenue, together with a higher forward interest rate curve, also reduced our full-year outlook for core FFO. Needless to say, we are disappointed that rental rate growth to new customers has been weaker this leasing season, and we never liked the idea of having to reduce our outlook. With that said, we are also careful to maintain perspective about where extra space and the storage industry actually sit today. First, occupancy levels remain just below 95%, which excluding the last couple of years, are as high as we have ever seen. Second, new customer rates, while not as strong as last year, remain 15% higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Third, new supply continues to be manageable, and the headwinds to future new development are increasing. And finally, our external growth drivers continue to fire on all cylinders, with 54 additions to our third-party management platform in the quarter and 102 stores added through two quarters. On July 20th, we closed our merger with LifeStores, adding over 1,200 stores to our portfolio, which today has over 3,500 stores spanning 43 states. I am proud of both teams who have worked tirelessly to complete the merger to create a stronger portfolio, platform, and company. We are all focused in working hard to achieve a smooth integration. So far, I am very pleased with how seamlessly the integration is progressing and how we are already finding ways to create value and unlock synergies. Let me provide a couple examples. In the two weeks since we closed the transactions, we have onboarded and trained over 2,700 LSI employees and already transitioned over 900 stores to our point of sale system with the remaining stores to follow next week. This move to our point of sale system is critical because among other things, this platform allows us to implement our digital marketing and pricing strategies, which will allow us to begin to optimize performance at these stores. And second, last week, S&P Global raised our credit rating to a triple B plus to reflect our larger and stronger company which will have an immediate and future benefit on our cost of debt capital. So while we have just closed and we know it is still early, we are excited as we begin to realize the many future opportunities this merger creates for Extra Space and our shareholders. We will continue to give updates on the integration and performance of the Life Storage Assets as well as our progress towards our 100 million in minimum estimated synergies. After some short-term dilution expected during the remainder of 2023, we believe we will be at least at our underwritten synergy run rate early in 2024, with additional upside beyond as we continue to optimize the performance of the combined company and capture additional synergies not quantified in the original underwriting. It is still a great time to be in storage, and I believe the future of extra space remains bright. I will now turn the time over to Scott.
spk19: Thanks, Joe, and hello, everyone. As Joe mentioned, we had another solid quarter, meeting our internal same-store NOI and FFO projections. The modest miss in property revenue in June was offset by expense savings and other small beats in interest income, GNA, and higher management fees were offset by higher interest expense and lower tenant insurance. After tightening year-over-year achieved rate to new customers to negative 3% in March, we backed off on rates and averaged approximately negative 8% in April, which immediately drove higher rental volumes. We saw similar traction in May, but then saw rental volume slow in June and July, despite keeping new customer rates down approximately 10% year over year. On the expense front, we are performing well with minimal payroll and property tax growth and marketing expense remaining in line with our expectations. However, we have experienced additional pressure in insurance expense premiums in the property and casualty markets, with average premium increases in our June renewal of approximately 50%. Turning to the balance sheet, we completed a $450 million bond offering in the quarter and completed a recast of our credit facility, bringing revolving capacity to approximately $2 billion in preparation for the life storage merger. We also closed on a term loan of $1 billion with a delayed draw feature that we accessed at closing to pay off life storages, line of credit, private placement debt, and other closing costs. In last night's earnings release, we updated our 2023 guidance ranges for same-store growth expectations and core FFO, which do not include the impact of the recently closed merger with life storage. Given the tight timing between closing the merger on July 20th and yesterday's release, we provided standalone guidance for extra space, excluding the impact of the merger, with separate details about the anticipated dilution from the merger in the remainder of 2023. Despite meeting our internal projections for same-store NOI and core FFO, we have reduced our forward-looking estimates given the lower than forecasted pricing power and rental volume experienced in June and July as well as the upswing in the forward interest rate curve. Our outlook for same-store revenue growth, which does not include the LSI assets, is now 2.5% to 3.5%. We have also reduced our same-store expense range to 3.5% to 4.5% due to better-than-expected payroll and property tax resulting in a revised NOI range of 2% to 3.5%. Our expectation remains that the rate of revenue growth deceleration continues to flatten in the back half of the year with easing comparables. Our core FFO range, excluding the impact of the LSI merger, is reduced to $8.15 to $8.35 per share, driven primarily by lower property revenues and higher anticipated interest rates. For the life storage merger, we estimate initial dilution in 2023 as we integrate and optimize the portfolio to capture our anticipated synergies. We estimate 10 to 15 cents of dilution per share in 2023, and we believe that we will be at our $100 million run rate in early 2024. Details of the second quarter performance of life storage have been provided in our supplemental package, and we will provide updates on the performance of the LSI assets going forward. We continue to believe storage as an asset class is among the most resilient in the REIT space. We believe our operating platform and highly diversified portfolio has become even stronger through the life storage merger, and that is positioned for outsized growth. With that, Lateef, let's open it up for questions.
spk15: As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. Again, that's star 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith of UBS.
spk09: Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. It seems like the largest driver of the reduced guidance is that street rates didn't converge with last year, which is weighing on results in the back half. So two-parter here. One, what is assumed for street rates for the back half of the year? And two, you know, this is expected to weigh on the results in the back half of 23. What is the expected impact from this on 2024 operating metrics?
spk11: So I think we see, the biggest difference we see in the back half of the year, frankly, is the COPs get a lot easier. So we kind of see a continuation of modest growth, but with much easier COPs.
spk08: What was the second question, Michael?
spk09: So you see, and then the impact on, The street rates are weighing on the second half of 23. Is there any impact from that into 2024?
spk11: So, you know, we're not talking, we don't have any guidance. We're not talking about guidance to 2024 yet. But, you know, clearly where you end 23 is your, sorry to give a stupid answer, is a starting point for 24. So, you know, that will be the impact.
spk09: So, and just to clarify on the first question, like, by growth, you mean you're expecting a slow convergence of 23 street rates to 22 levels, and you expect that to converge sometime in the back half? Do you have any visibility? Like, you know, is that early? Is that late? Like, just looking for some just relative placement there.
spk11: Yeah, we had thought by June, July, we would have had that conversions point. And now we think it's further into 2023. Okay, got it.
spk09: And then my second question here is that given that a majority of the revenue synergies are driven from revenue, or given that a majority of the entire synergies are driven from revenue, what gives you confidence that you can achieve your $100 million goal? run rate synergies in early 2024. Thanks.
spk11: So, on the revenue side, you know, as I mentioned in my comments, we have 900-plus stores on our point-of-sale soft threes, and the ECR notices have started going out, and we have a very detailed plan for you know, customer by customer, when did they get their last one, where their rate is on street rate, not to overload any store, but that has started. And next week we'll have all the rest of the stores on breeze and those ECRI notices will go out. And the confidence we have is because we've done this all the time. We take over stores all the time that have rates below where we want them. And we send out ECRI notices and we, know the acceptance rate and the churn rate, and it gives us a high degree of confidence that's going to work. On the insurance side, Once we're on Breeze, new customers will purchase insurance from our platform, which is at a higher rate than LSI's program was. And existing customers won't be converted until January 2024. Those notices will go out. And that delay is for both regulatory reasons and notice requirements in the existing LSI contract with their insurance provider. And then the third biggest kind of segment of the $100 million is the G&A side. And we've now, you know, sharpened our pencils, hired who we want to hire, redone budgets department by department, and have you know, greatly increased confidence, we will exceed the underwritten G&A savings.
spk09: And apologies for keeping that going, but just to clarify on the ECRIs, I think you said in the script that customers are continuing to absorb them. You know, that said, ECRIs can be highly dependent on the trajectory of street rates. So, or just the trajectory of street rates, is that going to impact your ability to pass along ECRIs in the near to intermediate term?
spk11: So, I don't think that's going to be a significant impact. So, you're right that street rate is a factor in the quantum of the ECRI that's given. But the gap between the rate at the LSI stores and the rate at the competitive extra space stores gives us confidence that there's still plenty of meat on that bone.
spk17: Got it. Thank you very much.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question. comes from the line of Jeff Spector of Bank of America.
spk03: Great. Thank you. Uh, first question, I guess, just taking a step back and listening to the comments on what you thought would happen versus what actually happened to understand and feel comfortable with the new guidance. Like why did you, what was, what were the systems telling you, let's say in the spring or early summer, that you would close the gap to actually what happened and then compare that to now what the systems are saying for the rest of the year?
spk19: Yeah, Jeff. So what we were seeing earlier in the year was we were seeing our street rates or our achieved rates to new customers steadily moving up, and we were seeing that our occupancy gap was maintaining what we were expecting. was pretty consistent through May. As we moved into June, we found that in order to maintain our occupancy, we needed to lower rates. And that continued into July. And so into July, we were negative 10.5%, whereas in the second quarter, our rates were averaged about 8% negative to new customers. So just that change in customers shopping more and being much more rate sensitive is what caused us to change our outlook going forward.
spk03: Okay, thanks. And then on the rental volume comment, Scott, I think you said rental volumes slowed in June and July, obviously. I guess trying to tie that into one of your competitor's comments on record move-ins, I guess what is the health of, you know, the top of the funnel, like new customer traffic? What are we seeing today, let's say, as we started August? And how should we think about that in terms of seasonality as we head into the coming months?
spk11: So there's plenty of self-storage customers out there for the larger operators to capture. We're at 94.5% occupied. Obviously, we can keep our stores full. The challenge is there's not sufficient enough customers to give us pricing power. We can't move rates and maintain that type of occupancy to the level we want it to. So, you know, our year-over-year rentals were down 9% in the second quarter, so were life storages for, you know, comparison purpose. But vacates were also down 9%. a little less than that, but a similar number. So there's customers out there. Our platform can capture them, but we don't have the pricing power we expected.
spk19: And Jeff, maybe where we vary a little bit from some of the other reports that have been out there is, you know, while they may see increases in rentals, some of it could be what happened last year and also what their new rate is moving in. And I think some of them reported a wider gap than what we have even experienced.
spk03: And then I'm sorry, but just one follow up to Michael's question on the, I guess you discussed the easier comps. Uh, I think you said into the, into the end of this year, I guess. So can you provide like a specific month or timeframe and to do the easier comps, you know, continue into 24.
spk19: Yeah. So the easier comps do continue into 24. as rates moderated in the back half of last year in terms of, you know, our rates to new customers. They continued to moderate it back half of last year and into this year. In addition, you have an easier revenue comp this year than you had from last year. Our revenue growth the first half of 2022 was almost 22%. Thank you. Thanks, Jeff.
spk17: Thanks, Jeff.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI.
spk29: Thanks. I guess good morning. I guess it seems like the light switch went off in June or July, and I'm just curious, can you guys put your finger on on what sort of changed customer behavior that much to change the pricing dynamic in June?
spk11: I don't think we can. You know, we had an odd March. We couldn't figure that out as well. We've talked about that. We were feeling really good at the end of May, and there was a distinct change in customer behavior in June and July, and I would be guessing if I told you I knew what it was.
spk29: Do you think it's housing related? Is that maybe just the lack of movement in housing creating less demand than you would have thought?
spk11: I think housing is certainly a factor. That's one important component of demand for self-storage, and we all know the housing market story. I think another factor is consumers don't have as much money in their pockets. If the savings rate is way down, all the extra COVID dollars that were floating around have gone away. There's inflation in the economy. I think that consumers have fewer dollars as well.
spk29: Okay. And I guess secondly, if you kind of look at the implied guidance for the second half of the year, if I'm doing my math right, I think the revenue growth is kind of 0% to 2%. which compares to the 2.7 you did in the second quarter. So maybe, Scott, just help us think through, like, you know, what gets you to kind of the upper end of the range and what gets you to the lower end of the range? Is it more occupancy driven? Is it more the new rates, the customers, the slowdown in ECRI? Like, well, what are the big drivers between kind of the low end and high end?
spk19: The biggest drivers, I think, are when we move positive in terms of achieved rates to new customers. And as we mentioned before, we do have an easier comp from last year. But I think that where you fall in that guidance is when those new customer rates move positive and you start to have a little bit of pricing power to new customers.
spk29: So I'm sorry, is there any of that embedded in the guidance for the back half of the year? Or is it like at the high end that assumes that and the low end that doesn't?
spk19: Yeah, so the low end assumes that you don't get pricing power. The high end assumes that you start to get some of that pricing power. And it's probably more in the back half at the end of the year where you start to see the benefit. Any pricing power you got in August, you might start to see some benefit later in the year. If you don't get pricing power until November, December, you're not going to see anything this year.
spk16: Got it. Okay. Thank you. That's it.
spk17: Thanks, Dave.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria of BMO Capital Markets.
spk04: Hi. Just a quick follow-up to start on Steve's last question. When you say pricing power is that you're able to raise street rates sequentially or more just benefiting from easier comps and the decline year-over-year will go away?
spk19: It's more the year-over-year comp. We have actually been able to move street rates sequentially as we've moved through this year, but the year-over-year comp has made them negative.
spk05: Okay, and then just a regular way question.
spk04: Just curious, is there anything by MSA or region that's where you saw softness, like are the coasts performing better than some of the previously high-flying sunbelt markets? Or just curious on any commentary you could provide around that.
spk11: I think it's too much of a generalization to say the Sun Belt is weak and the coasts are strong or anything like that, right? Some of our best markets, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, continue to outperform portfolio averages. Those are Sun Belt markets. L.A. continues to be good. And some of the weaker markets, frankly, are markets that put up 30% growth last year. So they, you know, it's hard to do that several years in a row. So they appear weaker. But I think the important thing to remember is markets will cycle in a non-correlated factor, non-correlated manner. And because of that, it's important to be as diversified as possible so you always have some markets that are on the upswing and you always have some markets that maybe are coming off of the upswing. And one of the reasons we like the LSI merger is because it further diversifies our portfolio and reduces our concentration in our top markets.
spk04: And then just one last one, if you'd humor me. Anything on the churn front in terms of length of stay you're seeing be impacted as you've seen kind of less top of funnel demand throughout the system? Worth noting about the one or two year length of stay decreasing or anything to that oak?
spk11: So the one or two year Length of stay has decreased very slightly. We're still in the low 60% on the one year and 46% or so on the two year. I think we are losing some of those long-term COVID tenants, but not all of them. But length of stay is still healthy. Our average vacating customer is almost 18 months. Their median is about seven and a half months. Those are great numbers as compared to pre-COVID.
spk12: Thanks, guys. Good luck. Thanks, Will.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas of KeyBank Capital Markets.
spk21: Hi. Thanks. Appreciate the disclosure on LSI's same store. It looked like revenue and NOI growth decelerated. um, you know, quite a, quite a bit more than, than we would have anticipated. I'm not sure how that compares to what you were anticipating, but it was about a thousand basis points sequentially, um, during the quarter before the merger closed, you know, any, any sense on what happened during the quarter? And can you speak to the integration there and first steps around stabilizing growth in the life storage portfolio?
spk19: And maybe I'll speak to the results and Joe can take the integration piece. Um, First of all, they were still managing their properties. So clearly we couldn't go in and manage them the way we would have liked to. I think that what we saw was occupancy fell off more than we would have expected. And we would attribute that to them keeping rates too high in May and June. When they've lowered them, you've seen it move in a positive direction. The month of July, they finished the month of July around 91%. So it ticked up slightly. but they did not see that busy season bump that we would have expected. And in terms of the integration, Joe?
spk11: So, you know, I spoke a little bit about the systems integration. That's going well, and, you know, we'll continue to work on that. Data transmission is going well. We still have some work to do there, but no hiccups. You know, people is not something you can just do in a couple weeks. It will take us a while to fully train the life storage managers on our way of doing things. They can all take rentals now and do the basics, if you will. But they'll continue to get better and better. And as they do, the performance will improve. Thank you.
spk21: Okay. Do you expect to continue providing a breakout of the life storage same store portfolio and performance going forward through 24, I guess, until it's included in the same store in 25?
spk19: So if not fully determined 24, we think it is likely because it's probably the best way to show the improvement. If you compare our same store pool to theirs, you should be able to see them outperforming due to them being on our systems. But I think it's likely, but no final decision yet. Okay.
spk21: And then I had a question around this environment here as it pertains to new supply. We've heard that starts are likely declining and could be materially lower moving forward here in the near term, which would be good for absorption of existing stores. As it pertains to the supply added over the last few years, a lot of that product leased up at an accelerated rate during the pandemic from some of the new demand related to the pandemic. Are assets in your system that leased up with a disproportionate amount of, I guess, COVID demand customers, are you seeing more pressure on move outs or different customer behavior than the stores that you've operated and that were stabilized for a period of time before the pandemic?
spk11: I don't think customers behave differently if they moved into a new store that just opened or whether they moved into a store that's been up and stabilized for a long time. They leave some point after their need for storage goes away. I think your thesis is right, right? We see a moderation of new supply, but at the same time, you know, we see markets that had kind of excess COVID demand that's going away that filled up new supply, and now that may be moderating, creating more availability.
spk21: Right. I guess that's my question. You know, the latter point that you just made, you know, are the assets, over the last several years, a couple thousand stores that were delivered beginning maybe in 2018 or 2019 through 2022, are you seeing those stores either a little bit more challenged or are they even in some markets maybe still struggling to find equilibrium in terms of rate as demand moderates and some of those renters move out?
spk17: So I'm sorry if I didn't answer that question clearly.
spk11: I think, you know, it's an asset by asset analysis. Certainly there are markets that are struggling because they had a lot of new supply delivered. It all got filled up during COVID. Now there's lesser demand. So maybe those markets are under a little more pressure. And I would give you Phoenix as a really good example of that. but I think it's a market analysis, not an asset analysis. It's not like all the excess COVID demand customers moved into the new property and all the regular customers moved into the existing properties, so the new properties are struggling more. The customers go everywhere and the markets perform similarly. I hope that makes
spk19: Todd, you're probably seeing it a little bit more in rate than you are occupancy. We have been able to maintain the occupancy at those newer stores, but you have, you know, the ability to push rates has not been there.
spk17: Okay, got it. Thank you.
spk06: Thanks, Todd.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Smetis Rose of Citi.
spk04: Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you, the implied guidance to the back half for your same-store portfolio, is that sort of a similar guideline for what you're seeing for the LSI portfolio as well, or is it something meaningfully different?
spk11: We would expect the LSI portfolio to do better as we get their stores on our platform, that uplift to begin to occur.
spk04: Okay, so embedded in your dilution is better same-store NOI for that portfolio through the back half of the year offset. That's one of the things that you've called out.
spk19: So there is some growth there, but not significant. Typically what happens is you bring things onto our portfolio is it takes a month or two as you bring things on. And so not a significant amount of increase, but we would expect those stores to start to benefit from the ECRI.
spk04: Okay. And then I just wanted to ask you on your third-party management platform, and maybe it's too soon, but I know that the economics were different for the LSI tenants. And I'm just wondering if you would expect most of them to come on board, even though you're I think you take a higher share, or do you think some will leave, or kind of what's embedded into your outlook on that side?
spk11: Yeah, I think that's a good description. So we've talked to all of the managed owners that have LSI managing their stores. And, you know, our expectation is that everyone will migrate to our economics, which are significantly better than LSI's economics, and also our kind of service levels. We run one program. Everyone's on the same program. LSI ran more of a customized program for their managed partners. And we will absolutely separate with some of those managed partners who don't want to work on our system. And that's fine, because our goal is not to have the most stores, but to have a, you know, efficient, profitable management program that works well for both parties. So we'll continue to, we'll Keep most, I think, and lose many, I think, as you said. But I'm very confident we'll continue to grow our management platform faster than anyone else in the industry.
spk19: Hey, Spades, one other point I would make there is I think there's been some narrative that we are going to lose some of these customers. And Life Storage actually added 17 stores during the quarter. So they've continued to add to their management portfolio through Q2.
spk15: Okay, thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Keegan Carl of Wolf Research.
spk30: Yeah, thanks for the time, guys. So it's maybe big picture here. Just wondering if you could walk us through your view on the strategy to cut street rate around this time last year. One, do you think the strategy worked? Two, what's the plan for here? Because it seems it's had a lot of ripple effects throughout the space. It's created a more challenging operating environment for everyone.
spk19: I'm not sure we have that kind of power, first of all, to create that kind of environment. I think we typically react or based on the data that we're reviewing to maintain the occupancy and maintain the pricing power in terms of our existing customer rate increases. If you look at big picture, I think we were probably one of the earlier ones to move on rate. And I think everyone else eventually, you know, we'd like to have the hubris to think they copied us, but I think they probably saw the same thing in the data that we saw. And they moved on rates also to maintain occupancy.
spk11: I would also say that, you know, we don't guess at these strategies. We test them. pretty vigorously before we implement them and keep control groups so we know whether we're doing the right thing or if the situation changed. So because of that, I have a high degree of confidence we executed the right strategy.
spk30: Okay. And shifting gears here at Nary, I remember you guys mentioned that marketing spend was up materially in May and you weren't seeing the same results. So, one, is it fair to assume that since you weren't seeing the results you wanted that you drastically reduced that in June? And I'm just curious how it translated in July and how you're thinking about marketing spend in the back half of the year.
spk11: Yeah, good memory. So, we did run some tests during that time period with significantly higher results. marketing expense, and we didn't see the return on those dollars spent, so we pulled back. And we'll continue to test, as we always do, in what situations can we get an acceptable return on incremental marketing dollars. And whenever that's the case, we're happy to spend them. And if we can't get that return, we're not going to spend money for no reason at all.
spk17: Great. Thanks for the time, guys. Thank you.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Camden of Morgan Stanley.
spk28: Hey, thanks so much. Just two quick ones from me. So back to the question on sort of the top of the funnel demand. I think you talked about sort of things changing in June and July where, you know, you can maintain occupancy but not not pricing power. When I tie that into the guidance ranges for the back half of the year on the same store revenue, how do we think about the conviction or the potential upside and downside as you're going to the back half of the year on the revenue front? What I mean by that is, do you need to see trends stabilize or get better in the next two to three months? to get there or what's sort of baked into that? Thanks.
spk19: Yeah, so I think what we've seen early in the summer and in July is that there is demand. You just can't get the occupancy and the rate. As we move throughout this year, we have easier comparables from last year. And so that's where it gives us the confidence to be able to go with the numbers that we've done, that we've gone with. We think that it gets easier as we move through this year.
spk28: in terms of new customer rates and so that's where we're confident and again as we mentioned before where you are in that range is going to depend somewhat on how quickly we get some pricing power right and i guess my follow-up follow-up question i have is just because i think the guidance range is just zero to two percent the heart of my question was like is there a conviction that you can't go negative at some point or is it just you know is things just don't move that quickly. I'm just trying to figure out like rate of change here.
spk19: So if you look at the lower end of the guidance, I think it does imply that you could tick negative for a period of time in the back half of the year.
spk28: Got it. That's helpful. Last one, just on LSI. Yeah, we noticed the occupancy dip as well. And I think you explained that they kept, you know, maybe pricing higher. I just want to go back to the synergies guidance because initially I think it was 60% 60 million revenues, 40 million expenses. And you've reiterated sort of, has that mix changed at all? Is it more or is it sort of still the same? Because presumably the outlook for revenues have sort of shifted a little bit. Just trying to understand, is that 100 million still the same mix or has that moved around a little bit? Thanks.
spk11: Yeah, it's a good question. Thank you. So we initially had four components of underwritten synergies. We had G&A, we had reduced marketing spend, we had increased store revenue, and we had tenant insurance. Tenant insurances stayed about the same. We feel better about G&A that we'll do better than that component. The marketing piece, we will not achieve. Since we did the underwriting, we have decided on pursuing a dual brand strategy, which we can discuss if you like. But the marketing savings was presumed to be under one brand. But we think that the revenue increase, the rental increase and revenue increase from two brands will more than offset the $15 million underwritten marketing savings, and will also save about $70 million or so of rebranding costs. So better in G&A, won't achieve the marketing savings, about the same in tenant insurance, and better at the property level.
spk28: super helpful. I think I'll follow up offline just to make sure I got that, but that's it for me. Thanks so much.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim of Truist.
spk24: Thank you. Just going back to the LSA topic, this year you're guiding towards 10 to 15 cents of dilution. I'm just curious, how should we think about that turning How should we think about that improving into next year? Just given the size of the portfolio, I think it's going to be pretty helpful for people to understand the earnings runway from here on out.
spk19: Yeah, when we announced the deal, we said that it would be just under 1% accretive, and that assumed the full $100 million in synergies. So assuming we hit the run rate early next year, clearly it shouldn't be dilutive next year, and you should start achieving a portion of that 1% accretion. Now, as Joe mentioned earlier, Some of these I think will hit earlier than others. I think G&A will start achieving some of that this year immediately. The marketing and revenue increases we'll start to achieve as we send out rate increases. You can't send them all out at day one. Some of these tenants received a rate increase a month ago. And then the last one is the tenant insurance, and that should be effective January 1.
spk11: And we've also achieved non-underwritten synergies. We've got our rating upgrade, which will immediately save us on interest expenses this year and obviously on any future borrowings. We sold Warehouse Anywhere to that management team at closing, which takes that loss off the books. And lots of other smaller things that were not in our $100 million that we're starting to achieve.
spk24: Okay. And earlier in the call, you mentioned that street rates are 15% higher than 2019 levels. And when I look at the cumulative same-store revenue growth that you've achieved since 2019, it's closer to 30%, obviously not purely apples to apples. But I'm just trying to get a sense of, if street rates are up 15% since 2019 and revenue is up 30%, is there further risk of revenues, I guess, getting closer to that 15% mark?
spk19: So your difference between those two numbers is your existing customer rates are more than that 15%, and that's what's created the negative churn gap that we have today. Okay, got it.
spk22: All right, thank you.
spk17: Thank you, Ben.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Spencer Alloway of Green Street.
spk26: Thank you. Apologies if I missed this, but have you guys quantified the magnitude of ECRIs in the standalone LSI portfolio and EXR for 2Q and then through July?
spk19: So we have not quantified the LSI ECRIs other than the fact that we've said with the synergies, there is $50 million that has to do with ECRIs as well as potential occupancy upside. When we did the initial underwriting and the initial deck that went out with the acquisition, we showed two studies that we had done that showed a pretty significant gap between rate per square foot on their stores and our stores. And we did not assume that we closed that gap 100%. We assumed that we only closed about a third of that gap.
spk26: Okay, I'm sorry, did you quantify it for portfolio?
spk19: We did not quantify anything in terms of the back half or 2Q in terms of.
spk26: Okay, and then I know you guys have spent a lot of time in this call and thank you just providing color around the potential uplift you expect on operations from the LSI portfolio. But are there any concerns as it relates to the NOI kind of operating margin that you guys kind of hope to achieve with this integration, just as we started to see some material weakness in some of LSI's smaller secondary markets? Or said differently, are there any like structural or demographic headwinds in those markets that you think that maybe your scale or superior revenue management platform won't be able to overcome in the near term?
spk11: So it's a good question. I think we really look at this on a long-term basis. And are there going to be some markets that we adopted from LSI? You know, we weren't in Buffalo. How's Buffalo going to do? I'm not sure. Over the short term, they will be weaker and some will be stronger, sure. But what is really important is the increased diversification. And to have greater variability in where all the cash flows come from is just going to help take volatility out of returns. So, yeah, some markets will do better. Some markets will be worse. Markets cycle through performance. But over the long term, it's going to be a benefit to the company.
spk23: Okay. Thanks so much.
spk15: Sure. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Hughes of Raymond James.
spk20: Hey, good afternoon.
spk21: So normally, we see street rates are, I think, really only impacted by new supply, but deliveries have been pretty muted for the past few years. And I know you said in Keegan's question earlier that you don't think your strategy implemented a year ago impacted the industry. But the Extra Space brand is the second largest out there. So my question is, will you take a bit more of an introspective look and maybe be a little more careful about running these types of strategies in the future? Because I do think some of your peers, certainly smaller ones, might agree that the seeming price war we have today started a year ago, which did coincide with the strategy change.
spk11: So I think it's important to remember that even though, you know, Public and Extra Space and Cube and Life, you know, are the largest brands, it's still a highly fragmented industry. And we don't control these markets in any respect. We have many, many stores where most or all of our competitors are mom and pops and not REITs. So we only have one or two REIT competitors. So... We're going to continue to adopt strategies that we think produce the best long-term results for our shareholders and not really care about what it does to others.
spk21: I understand the fragmented nature of the market, but I think if you look at maybe the comparable products, an extra space property is, I think, different than say the gen one drive up mom and pop so if that's your target consumer and you know they want your product that's multi-story air conditioned they don't want that legacy property um you know your share of that market is much greater and so i think maybe that's where some of uh my line of questioning came from that overall in the industry basis yes I think the Extra Space brand, we all know the concentration, but I think on the actual like-for-like type of product competing for that type of customer, I do think you own a little more sway than you think. So that's my question.
spk11: I would respectfully disagree. I think our private competitors are not all Gen 1, you know, older. There's plenty of sophisticated private competitors. regional operators that have, you know, new store climate control that are very comparable to our stores. Their systems and their operating platforms aren't comparable to us at all. But from a tenant standpoint, the product is the same.
spk31: Okay. All right. Well, that's it for me. Appreciate it. And happy early birthday, Scott.
spk14: Thanks, Jonathan. Thank you, Jonathan.
spk15: Thank you. Our next question comes from Juan Sanabria of BMO Capital Markets.
spk04: Hi. Thanks for the time. Just a couple quick follow-ups. Firstly, is there any update on Storage Express and how that transition is going and the rollout of the strategy?
spk11: Yeah. So, you know, Storage Express was a little harder, frankly, to put onto our systems than Life Storage because we had to put it on a system with a different operating model that we hadn't had programmed. But once they got onto our system, everything is working very well. And one of the reasons we're confident with the ECRI program for life storage is we just went through that ECRI program for Storage Express, and we saw how their customers accepted it. So in terms of integration, very well. Operating through six months of the year ahead of underwriting, which is good. Growth is a little slower than we underwrote as we scaled that back while we were focused on the LSI merger. So we've bought five or we've approved for purchase five remote stores, you know, less than $30 million. So smaller stores, 130 bucks a foot, but 7% yields in the first year. So, you know, once we can turn our full attention to growing this, we're excited about it. So good. Summary would be everything on track or ahead of track going well, just slower growth than we thought as we turned our attention to integrating life storage.
spk04: And just one more question for me, and I appreciate you guys are focused on maximizing revenue, but a lot of the conversation today has seemed to have talked about occupancy and maintaining occupancy and the importance of that. So just hoping you could square the two. I mean, is there a chance that maybe you're kind of hooked on the high occupancy? I mean, I know that's not the most elegant way to phrase it, but just would appreciate your thoughts there.
spk11: Yeah. So as I mentioned earlier, our strategies are based on results of testing that we do. And the results of those tests have led us to have a strong conviction that we want to have incrementally higher occupancies. We want to seek the longer-term customers, and both of those things come at the expense of initial rate and try to make that up through ECRI. So I apologize if we've spoken too much about occupancy, but it is a tool to maximize revenue.
spk06: Thank you.
spk15: Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Joe Margolis for closing remarks, sir.
spk11: Great. Thank you, everyone, for your time today. I want to emphasize and assure everyone that everyone here at our combined teams is very focused not only on integrating the companies but maximizing performance at our stores as difficult time. We are very, very excited about the future. We see a lot of tailwinds in 2024 as beyond as the underwritten and non-underwritten synergies from LSI hit the books, given the moderating delivery of new stores, given that we have 23 cents of dilution from lease-up stores that will come to the bottom line, that eventually interest rates will be lower, eventually the housing market will recover, and we will continue to grow our ancillary management bridge loan and insurance businesses. Thank you very much.
spk15: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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