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spk01: Good morning. My name is Devin, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the first Commonwealth Financial Corporation Q4 2022 earnings release conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question at any time, again, press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Thank you for your patience. Mr. Ryan Thomas, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, you may begin the conference.
spk04: Thank you, Devin, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's fourth quarter financial results. Participating on today's call will be Mike Price, President and CEO, Jim Reske, Chief Financial Officer, Jane Grabentz, Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer, and Brian Karup, our Chief Credit Officer. As a reminder, a copy of yesterday's earnings release can be accessed by logging on to fcbanking.com and selecting the Investor Relations link at the top of the page. We've also included a slide presentation on our Investor Relations website with supplemental financial information that will be referenced during today's call. Before we begin, I need to caution listeners that this call will contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to our forward-looking statements disclaimer on page three of the slide presentation for a description of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statement. Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliation measures can be accessed in the appendix of today's slide presentation. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.
spk06: Hey, thank you, Ryan. We had another very productive year and a good quarter. Fourth quarter, core net income increased 2.4 million over the third quarter to $36.8 million, and fourth quarter core EPS of 39 cents was up two cents per share over the third quarter as well. For the fourth quarter, a $5.7 million increase in net interest income combined with a $1.6 million decrease in non-interest expense to more than offset a $1.6 million decline in non-interest income and a $3.2 million increase in provision expense. Despite higher provisioning due mostly to loan growth, credit trends improved on virtually all fronts for the year and the quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2022, ROA was 1.47%. Core ROA was 1.51%. Core return on tangible common equity was 20.32%. Also, core pre-tax pre-provision ROA was 2.28% and core efficiency was exactly 50%, both records for the company. Core pre-tax pre-provision net revenue of 55.3 million was up by 6.4 million from last quarter, an increase of 13%, and is now approximately 50% higher than it was in the last quarter before the pandemic. These results really speak to the culmination to thoughtfully grow our business over the last few years. And a couple strategies there. We've developed the regional business model. We've added and enhanced customer offerings, things like equipment finance, indirect auto, just to name a few. We've added key talent and leadership, and we've grown our commercial lending teams. We've really increased our digital relevance. So a lot of success there. As we reflect on record profitability, it's clear that our earnings benefited from an expanding margin and strong loan growth. The margin expanded by 23 basis points to 3.99% as our asset sensitive balance sheet responded to Fed rate hikes and new higher rate loans replaced the runoff of lower rate loans. About half of our loan portfolio is variable. So we will still see some benefits of the Fed's December rate and January rate hikes in the ensuing quarters. We expect our net interest margin to expand another 15 basis points in the first quarter, give or take five basis points. Strong loan growth contributed to an increase in spread. Income to $88.3 million in the fourth quarter, up by $5.7 million, or 7%. as compared to the third quarter. The loan growth was fairly evenly split between commercial and consumer categories, with commercial loans growing by 14.6% annualized and consumer loans growing by 17.2% annualized. Equipment finance balances ended the year at approximately $80 million. With equipment finance getting up to speed, we expect loan growth to be around 10% in 2023, which together with our expanding net interest margin should produce strong growth and spread income that will lead to positive operating leverage. After announcing the acquisition of Centric Bank on August 30th, 2022, we received regulatory approval for the transaction in November, and we're pleased to announce that Centric received shareholder approval this morning. As a result, the legal close is scheduled to take place on January 31st. Centric is a commercially oriented franchise in good markets. We expect to push more consumer product through their branch light chassis and increase their commercial lending and deposit gathering activity. We believe that we will achieve the requisite cost saves and meet or exceed the targeted 2023 earnings accretion of eight cents per share. With 2022 in the history books, we can look back on another year of strong performance for First Commonwealth. As I mentioned, we found a terrific partner in Centric with which we can enter the central Pennsylvania market and leap over the $10 billion threshold. We grew spread income by 33.6 million over 2021, but that includes a reduction of 20.5 million in PPP income. which means that ex-PPP, our spread income, grew by $54.1 million. Asset quality measures improved. Fee income was down as expected with the slowdown in mortgage and SBA gains, but increased swap activity helped offset that somewhat, and our SBA and equipment finance originations continue to build momentum. Expenses were up mostly due to inflationary wage pressures, but we achieved positive operating leverage and our efficiency ratio fell. Lastly, I would just add that while the majority of our recent loan growth has occurred in Ohio, our Pennsylvania market is growing as well now and has long been the source of stable, low-cost funding. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim Rutske, our CFO.
spk10: Thanks, Mike. Since Mike's already provided a high-level overview of the quarter's financial results, I'll dive a little deeper into our deposit trends, fees, expenses, and then touch on credits. Deposit costs remain low in the fourth quarter. The total cost of deposits did rise in the fourth quarter, as expected, but only to 20 basis points, up from five basis points last quarter. We calculate our cumulative through the cycle beta through the fourth quarter at only 5.6%. We had previously disclosed expectations of a 20% beta, which was informed by our near zero betas through the end of the third quarter of last year, And in fact, our fourth quarter incremental data was 18%, in line with those expectations. We are, however, revising our cumulative through the cycle data estimate to 25% by the end of 2023, just to be more consistent with our long-term historical data. The deposit picture for us in the fourth quarter was clouded a bit by our conscious strategy to stay below $10 billion in total assets through year end. While assets are easy to manage, our concern was that a sudden influx of deposits might inadvertently push us over the $10 billion mark on December 31st, and we weren't able to successfully manage that. So our Durban impact will be mid-2024 as planned. Midway through the quarter just ended, we did introduce several deposit strategies that have started to have a real tangible impact as the quarter progressed and continue to pull in deposit balances.
spk08: Fee income was down by $1.6 million last quarter, due almost entirely to a $1.6 million drop in swap income.
spk10: We feel good about our fee businesses, but fee income will remain under some pressure in 2023 due to macroeconomic variables like the housing market, asset values, and SBA premiums. Nevertheless, we still expect fee income to be up by about 6% in 2023 over 2022, inclusive of Centrix. Non-interest expense improved by $1.6 million from last quarter, in part due to about $800,000 of third quarter expenses that we had identified and previously disclosed that weren't present in the fourth quarter. While the first quarter of 23 will be noisy due to one-time items associated with the centered acquisition, we still expect to hit the previously announced 35% cost-safe figure. In the past, we have not parsed out in our comments the difference between operating expense and total non-interest expense, because intangible amortization wasn't that material. But we will likely break these figures out more carefully post-acquisition. For the full year 2022, our standalone operating expense, without Centric, of course, was $224.7 million, up by 7% from 2021. And we expect that in 2023, it will probably be up by another 7% to 8%. In 2023, however, total operating expense will include centric. And then to get to total non-interest expense, we will have to add intangible amortization. That last figure will include the new intangible amortization from the acquisition, which we will calculate at close and disclose with our first quarter results. Provision expense was up in the fourth quarter, but not because of any credit deterioration. In fact, credit metrics improved. Roughly half the provision, or $4.6 million, was due to loan growth. The remaining provision expense reflected about $2 million in net charge-offs, which is lower than last quarter, plus about $3.7 million for changes in our economic forecast. All asset quality measures remain strong. At 11 basis points, net charge-offs are lower than last quarter, and charge-offs also came in lower for the full year. Compared to the end of last year, Non-performing loans are down from 80 basis points to 46 basis points in total loans. Non-performing assets are down from 59 to 37 basis points in total loans. And the dollar balances of non-accrual, non-performing, criticized, and classified loans are all down 30 to 40%. If a credit recession is looming, we have yet to feel it. And if it does come, we are starting from a very good position. On a different note, our tangible book value per share grew by 32 cents to $7.92, and our tangible common equity ratio improved by 13 basis points to 7.79%, due mostly to our strong earnings capacity, but also reflecting a $4.6 million reduction in accumulated other comprehensive income. Finally, our effective tax rate was 19.98%. And with that, we will take any questions you may have.
spk01: At this time, I would like to remind everyone to ask a question, press star, and then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.
spk02: Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe first, just on the margin, appreciate the guidance for the first quarter and the further expansion. Just a clarification, does that include purchase accounting accretion that's coming with the deal?
spk10: Great question. It does, and thanks for asking so we can clarify. It does include that, but it includes that based on our assumptions we had at the time the deal was announced. So all those, it was a different rate environment, so that will change. So I'll tell you just to broaden your question a bit, the thing that could produce some downward pressure on that NIM estimate the deposit costs. If deposit costs rise faster than we thought, that's why we give some guidance within plus or minus five basis points. That'll be downward pressure. But we're going to redo all the marks at closing in a different rate environment. And we don't have an answer for it yet or what we would give it to you, but it's likely that that might provide some upside to the number we disclosed a minute ago.
spk02: Okay. Do you have a sense for... Just a guide for what the core margin would be in the first quarter, excluding those marks.
spk10: Well, we're at 399 now, and the guide you're giving is 15 basis points up, so it'll be about 414, 415, plus or minus 5 on either side. So that's the best guidance we can give you now, and we'll just have to revise it once we close the deal and have the final marks calculated and provide further guidance as we go.
spk02: No, that's great. We appreciate that. And then as we think about kind of the rest of the year with, You revised your deposit beta assumption cumulative back up to 25%. As we think about that playing out over the course of the year, assuming no other rate hikes maybe after the first quarter, how do you envision the margin moving throughout the rest of the year?
spk10: Go ahead, Jim. Yeah, sure. We see – we've disclosed this before, but we do see a peak in margin as deposit rates eventually kind of catch up. What we had disclosed before is still the way we see it, which is margin probably peaking in the second quarter of this year and then coming down from there. Now, some of that's based on our rate forecast, which is based on a weighted average of Moody's baseline forecast and an upside and a downside. And in our rate forecast, the peak rates are only 4.7%, not much higher than they are now, and those rates start to kind of come down in the second half. So that informs the peak estimate that I'm giving you. If the rates go higher and stay higher, the peak might be delayed. But inevitably, along with everyone else in the industry, deposit costs are going to keep going and catch up and eventually cause an end of peak.
spk06: Let me just add to Jim's comment, Dan, if I can. Jim mentioned that we could not afford to trip over $10 billion in the fourth quarter. That was really at play. And we really feel like we can gin the commercial deposit gathering machine like we did in the prior years where we, you know, you've seen some of our pie charts before. There were 60% plus of our non-interest-bearing deposits was business. And so that's really going to be our focus. It'll be a point of strategic focus and goals and incentives. We're running specials and tests that we monitor week to week. We just have a good feeling about 2023, what we can accomplish, and getting to a point where we can fund our loan growth.
spk02: at 10 percent and if that's a little off because of a bump or a mild recession you know those um the funding pressure might not be the same right okay that's great um and and just finally to uh to stay on the margin here um do you have a sense of of how much compression that that might be i mean just assuming you're you're 25 basis points 25 cumulative deposit beta
spk10: um how much do you think the margin would could potentially contract from from the peak in the first quarter uh well um based on what we know now we see it continuing you know the peak is in the first part the peak is the second quarter so it'll continue to expand in the second quarter um but then where we see the end of the year is still over four percent so not not giving back all the expansion so a level a little higher than we are now. And I'm hesitant to go that far out because I think the marks and centricals we calculated in the final marks are going to affect this number. And of course, deposit costs and how we manage that across the year, this could change. So we'll have to update this as we go ahead. But as we see it right now, we see that number staying above 4% by the end of the year.
spk02: All right. Terrific. That's very helpful. I appreciate it. I know it's a tough number to get at, especially with the marks. So I appreciate you answering my questions. Thank you, Dan.
spk01: Our next question comes from Frank Chiraldi with Piper Sandler.
spk08: Hey, guys. Good afternoon.
spk05: Just on the – thinking about the efficiency ratio in the quarter right at 50% and the positive operating leverage for 2023 and the cost saves from Centric. So, you know, given that you're – you know, imply obviously a sub 50% efficiency ratio. Is that a place you think, you know, as you think about more medium term, maybe, that you think you can operate the bank from? Or, you know, I understand an offset will be the Durbin impact in mid 2024. Just wondering your thoughts on kind of longer term, where you think you can operate the bank from in terms of efficiencies?
spk06: I think you used the term midterm, which to me would imply one or two years. And I think low 50s we're comfortable with because we plan to grow the bank. You've seen us kind of methodically put together a lot of diversified revenue engines, and we're going to continue to ramp those up. So we'd like to continue to grow the bank the way we have in the last two years and make investments. And of course, we have new territory in central Pennsylvania and on the outskirts of the Philadelphia MSA. I don't see us doing sub-50 right away.
spk08: We want to build out the revenue side of the bank and grow the bank.
spk05: You know, a lot of talk about the NIM, and I'm hesitant to ask because, Jim, I know you said you were hesitant to go out to the end of next year. But, you know, as you think about if the Fed, you know, we get a couple more rate hikes here, and then the Fed is the interest rate picture is a little more static for some time. Do you feel like that NIM above 4% is an area where the bank is could operate at. Maybe it plateaus there. Are you thinking that in 2024, it's more likely that the NIM continues to drop to a more normalized level? I guess that's what I'm trying to suss out is if you think in a static rate environment, a normalized level could be above that 4% figure.
spk10: It's a tough question. To use an old joke, my crystal ball gets cloudy when you start getting out to 2024, but We have actually stressed it for the kind of scenario you're talking about because we realize that in, you know, we're using consistently the rate forecast we're using with our approach that this is the way we do our CISO model with a 40% weight on the baseline, 30% an upside and downside using that rate forecast that it might be under overstated. So we try to stress it and say, well, what happens if it's wrong? What happens if rates, the Fed raises rates a little more aggressively here and rates stay up for a while longer? And I can tell you the answer generally for us is that it's better. the NIM is better. So the margin is better and it stays higher for longer, but the pattern is pretty much the same. You get to a peak and then it comes down. Now in that world, I would tell you that we end up at a pretty, based on what I know now, you have a margin that ends the year well above four. What it goes to in 2024, I actually don't have that, but my guess would be that it would drift downward and continue downward if the positive costs pay out. Because if the positive costs If rates go to 5% and stay there for two or three years to sell it, eventually deposit rates are going to keep going up and up and up.
spk05: Got it. Okay. And then just lastly, I was surprised that the consumer continued to be as strong as it has been in terms of as a driver, as a partial driver of loan growth. Sorry if I missed in your prepared remarks, but are you starting to see a slowdown or are you expecting a slowdown on that side of things just given... the macro environment with more of a pickup in commercial going forward into 2023?
spk06: We are. I mean, we might do 10% less in mortgage this next year, but not 20 or 30. I mean, if we were at 470, we might be at 430 in first mortgage. Key lock, key loan is probably much softer and under pressure, but also we've taken our good people in the branches and we've really got to focus on deposits. and calling on business customers, small business customers. You know, the indirect auto business looks good, and the team has done a nice job of getting our spreads up in that business. It's very well managed. And so that's a business that can probably help us. But we will be doing some HELOC and HELONES out of branches, and we'll be doing some mortgage and not a lot less, actually, you know, from maybe the high fours to maybe the mid or low fours. But that's also a business that, Long term, we like the business because we get a cornerstone checking account that we cross-sell. We get households, a customer for life. And so I think the consumer business is something that is important to us. Jane, anything you would add?
spk09: Not really, Mike. I think you covered it. We think the consumer is healthy.
spk08: Okay, great. I appreciate the call. Thank you.
spk01: Our next question comes from Carl Shepherd with RDC Capital Markets.
spk00: Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. You bet. I know we're all trying to get a sense for the margin trajectory, but I guess I'm kind of curious to ask how you feel about core momentum in the bank. I think your numbers look pretty good. And you have Centric coming in, equipment finance wrapping. So how do you feel about just kind of the overall positioning of the bank as you go into 23 and kind of strategic priorities?
spk06: Yeah, we just feel really good. I mean, we feel like we're positioned in our lending business as well. Even the businesses that are hitting a bit of a speed bump, like, you know, our fee businesses, we really believe in SBA and mortgage longer term, you know, good, robust consumer lending through our branches. We're really building out our equipment finance platform, our SBA. We've got new talent in CNI lending. We feel good about our company. And I think for those of you who have covered us for a number of years, the one thing we do is we get better every year. I mean, you know, this has been a march from a 60 basis point ROA bank, and we get 5, 10 basis points better every year. We operate with the principle of operating leverage in every budget in every part of our bank. We're just excited about the future of our company. We're excited about the new markets. And it's fun. And we feel like we make a difference with our clients and the value proposition that we deliver. We think we're turning our focus back to funding, but we've always been pretty good at funding. And it's just going to be fun to see how well we can do this year. and how much core deposits we can gather. And then we just feel like there's a couple more plays left in the playbook, at least. We think our regional model is starting to knit the bank together in six of our discreet markets, northern, southern, central Ohio, Pittsburgh, community PA, and now this capital region. And I don't know.
spk08: We're excited about the future of our company, and thanks for asking. Thanks for the color.
spk00: Um, and as a, excuse me, as a follow up to, I wanted to ask, what kind of economy are you assuming in your loan growth guidance? I think we all have kind of a different view, but you know, what kind of trends are you seeing today and what do you need to see over the next couple of quarters to get where you want to be?
spk06: Yeah. I mean, our, for this year, just because of some downdraft in some places, uh, you know, we've been a little higher, but probably nine, 10%. And, um, We think, you know, commercial's on a good track. And then, of course, we have a newer business that, you know, everything equipment finance adds, you know, $80 million in the second half of the year goes right to growth and higher spread growth, I might add. And so, Jim, anything you would add or Jane?
spk10: I would say we're not predicating those kinds of expectations on a recessionary environment that requires a pullback in lending or that consumers start to get worried unemployment rises. I can tell you, actually, officially in our forecast forecast, The weighted average forecast I keep referencing in this call, the unemployment rate goes to just over 5% by the end of the year. But we're not using that and saying that's going to result in a big pullback in loan volumes. In fact, we kind of see those things working together because if there is some recessionary pressure and loan volumes slow down a little bit from what our expectations are, then that will relieve some funding pressure and we'll be fine. So that goes into the mix. Jane, anything you would add?
spk08: This is your world.
spk09: the only thing that i would add mike is in a couple of the businesses we're still seeing supply chain issues the car business is still um is still challenged uh the equipment finance business is still seeing supply chain issues equipment is taking longer to be delivered and we're also seeing construction delays in some of our residential mortgage and SBA loans. So, you know, the economy still isn't completely frictionless. You know, we still see some of the COVID friction in the economy, but it's not recessionary. It's just friction.
spk08: Great point. Is that helpful? Yeah. Thanks, Father Clark. Our next question comes from Michael Perito with KBW. Hey, good afternoon, guys.
spk07: Thanks for taking my question. Great. A lot of them have been addressed, but just two quick ones. One, Mike, Centric's about to close. Most of your peers are saying Bank M&A is pretty quiet. Just curious what you're hearing and where your thoughts are at for that heading into the start of this year.
spk06: You know, we wake up every day and we think about organic growth and how we grow our company, and that's the highest and best use of our capital so that's where fundamentally we start and we have to be successful there year in and year out and then when we have great opportunities like with Centric with Foundation in Cincinnati they have to be right and you know Jim always likes to say we've looked at 60 things to do six so um we we're not seeing a lot of activity and then even if we we were it would have to be right for us strategically and it would have to be right for us financially. And we're pretty picky, and I don't – so anyway, we're not counting on that. If it presents itself in a way that's really positive for a company and is win-win, then great.
spk08: But it's not a key part of our strategic plan.
spk07: Great. Thanks. And then just within the non-interest income, you know, any – the environment on mortgage and, you know, investments and everything are challenging. Just curious if there's any particular areas that might have more or less upside relative to your forecast, anything you're excited about or more cautious about on the line item basis.
spk06: Yeah, I'll start there and let Jane follow on Jim. But just on the SBA piece, we're a little frustrated because we really have good volume and, you We're number one SBA lender in a couple of our key markets. That's a part of our brand. We feel like we're doing good for customers and our bank. But the volume hasn't materialized into fee income, but it will. And that business has been around for a long time, so we're still very bullish on it, even though it's kind of tamped down right now. But we've grown that business pretty nicely in the volume. I'll speak to that one. I spoke a little bit to mortgage, and obviously, indirect auto too, or not indirect auto, but our card business is off, probably about 12%, and that's just consumers not spending as much money and swiping their cards as often, at least in our part of the vineyard. Jane, what else would you add in terms of outlook for fee businesses?
spk09: The only couple things I would add, Mike, are that the brokerage business looks good. The investment management and trust business is a little bit soft because of the market volatility. And, you know, we're paid against asset values and the volatility is not our friend. But none of that feels like it's prolonged. You know, it all feels like a blip. And to Mike's point on SBA, we have a couple of loans still in the pipeline, construction loans, that started in early 2020. And they just haven't completed yet. And they will. But, you know, I've stopped counting the days. And I just know they'll close. They're progressing. They're just progressing slowly.
spk08: Is that helpful? Appreciate it. Yep.
spk01: Thank you. Our next question comes from Manuel Navas with DA Davidson.
spk08: Hey, good afternoon. Good afternoon, Manuel.
spk07: Can you kind of talk about the low-growth target and explain a little bit more about the mix? And then I'll dive into the equipment finance group in a second.
spk06: Yeah, the mix is, we do it in two ways. We do it geographically and we do it by product line. And more and more, we're running our company geographically. And I would say that Ohio has just been on a tear, probably average loan growth there of about 20% the last several years. And then In Pittsburgh and community PA markets have really improved quite a bit. I mean, we were leaking oil for a number of years in community Pennsylvania, and I think they grew about 7% or 8% last year. So that's one dimension that we look really closely at is how we're delivering geographically. And then also by lines of business, we expect our commercial to really kind of be at the forefront again this year and kind of carry the day. And then our indirect auto is off to a good start. And, Jim, you're looking at the actual numbers.
spk10: Yeah, just one of the things that's kind of shifted our guidance because for a long time we talked about mid-single digits and once in a while we'll talk about upper single digits and Susie on that. But one of the things that's just giving us confidence about saying going out there with 10% is the equipment finance business really getting up to speed. We built out that business. We talked about that a lot on previous calls. It's really kind of really coming up to speed. As Jane mentioned, there are still, you know, equipment issues that affect that business. But even then, that's a good chunk of our expected loan growth next year. And so that, you know, combined with, you know, pretty modest or not modest, but moderate growth in the other areas, all together gets to 10%. And technically, we probably should say loans and leases, but even in our equipment finance business, 85% of the business is loans. only about 15% of leases right now.
spk06: And I forgot to mention on the commercial side, just the backlog we have in the commercial construction business, and that will be layered in this year, and those construction frauds are already beginning to occur. So that's another nice driver. Jane, are we missing anything?
spk09: No, I don't think so. If I'm looking at expectations, everybody... Every geography is expected to grow modestly, and every business line is expected to grow moderately. And so the combination means somebody can be a little bit up or down, and another business line or geography will pick it up. So I feel good about the expectations for growth. I feel good. I don't see any real weaknesses.
spk10: Yeah, if I could just add one more thought, one bullet point. Our line utilization is still not up to where it was pre-pandemic. It's gone up a little bit, but there's still maybe a little more runway there. Yeah, good point.
spk08: That's really helpful.
spk07: Now equipment finance alone, what are kind of expectations as a percentage of loans by the end of this year? Where can that portfolio grow to in the next two years and then kind of what are the yields that you're getting currently?
spk06: Yeah, Jane, why don't we let you take that one?
spk09: Let's start with Jim. We'll start with yields, Mike, and then I'll back clean up.
spk10: Yeah, so the yields in that business are really strong, really nice. Right now, going over 7%, and that's really where we like it to be. We didn't build that business to be double-digit yields. We don't want to take on that kind of risk. The equipment is mostly things like trucks and nice bread-and-butter kind of equipment like that, and the yields are really very additive to our overall NIM and to the bank as a whole. In terms of, like, I think your question was, like, a proportion of our loan growth next year, it's probably 30% to 40% of the loan growth next year. We look at an overall big-picture number of what we expect to be booking next year. The equipment finance is really additive. So that's where we can say the other businesses are growing at historical moderate growth rates are growing, and then equipment finance laid on top really kind of puts the whole picture together and builds the whole picture. Jane, if you want to add to that.
spk09: Sure. We're continuing to add salespeople. And as Jim said, it's a big portion of our loan growth this year. And I thought I asked, I heard you ask, ultimately where do we see it being? And it's probably never going to be more than 10% to 15% of the loan portfolio.
spk08: That's helpful.
spk07: How many people have you added? How much is the footprint on your employee base in this division?
spk09: It's small. The leader of the group, Rob Boyer, has been very, very careful. We add out a few employees at a time because he's been very careful about selection and onboarding. We've been adding primarily salespeople, and we probably have a couple of dozen people in the group right now.
spk08: That's really helpful. Thank you, guys. Thank you.
spk01: Our next question comes from Daniel Cardenas with Janie Monterey Scott.
spk08: Good afternoon, guys. How are you? Good.
spk10: Just a quick follow-up on the equipment finance. What's the duration of that portfolio and the average loan size? Average loan size is about $160,000. This was up a little bit from our earliest projections just because of the way the market was moving. It might come down a little bit from that. Duration was, I think, 60 to 70 months. Or, Jane, you could correct me on that. But one of the features of that business is unlike... The auto business, it rarely prepays. So the duration is very kind of similar to the stated life.
spk07: That's just about five years. Okay.
spk10: So then to get to the growth that you're projecting right now, is it safe to assume that you'll kind of stay within that average or do you kind of foresee going up in size to help you get there?
spk09: We don't. We don't have any... We don't have any immediate plans to increase the size. We like the space because we like the yields a lot. And we like the collateral. So we'll probably stay about where we are, at least for the foreseeable future.
spk08: And what kind of loss rate are you building into your model for the equipment finance?
spk09: Jim, do you want me to take that?
spk08: Yeah, if you have it in your fingertips, please.
spk09: I do. You know, we assumed initially 75 basis points. As you can imagine, it's next to nothing.
spk08: So far, the actual losses have been zero. All right. Congrats on that.
spk10: And then maybe just jumping over to borrowings in this quarter, we saw a pretty substantial jump.
spk07: Can you maybe give us some color as to how we should think about borrowings on a go-forward basis?
spk10: Well, like we've been saying, our long-term goal is that we want to make sure that we fund our loan growth and deposit growth. But when in any given quarter we don't have that, we're able to tap into borrowing so we have a very large amount of equity. So funding our loan growth is not a problem. In the fourth quarter, we just had that dynamic where we didn't want to have an influx of deposits because of the inflexibility of deposits. Assets are so flexible. So if we had gotten to the end of December of last year and were trying to avoid the $10 billion mark, you can sell a loan portfolio very quickly and pay down overnight borrowings the same day very quickly. You can't do that if it was funded with deposits because you can't stuff money in envelopes and mail it back to depositors and give them their money back. So that gave us this balance sheet flexibility we really liked going into the end of last year. Now, like I said, there's plenty of that money available. The money that we're raising in the market, even with CD specials and other kinds of specials, is all below our incremental cost of overnight borrowings, so that's all better for us in the borrowings, and the money's really flowing in in response to those specials, so that's kind of how we manage it and how we look at it. Okay, good. And then the last question for me in terms of as I look at your deposits,
spk08: Do you guys have any broker deposits in portfolio right now? No. None. All right. That's all I have. Thanks, guys. Thank you, Dan.
spk01: If you would like to ask a question at any time, please press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Matthew Breeze with Steffens, Inc. Good afternoon, everybody.
spk06: Hey, Matt.
spk11: I want to go back to the deposit discussion. Jim, I think I heard you say that you'd like to equally fund loan growth with deposits, implying that the loan-to-deposit ratio can stay sub-100%. Is that accurate?
spk10: Yes, over the long term. Over the long term, that's definitely our goal.
spk11: Okay. And that leads to my next question, really, which is, We are standing today with 33% non-interest-bearing deposits. That compares to pre-COVID levels, I think closer to maybe 25%. Fed funds is obviously very different from that point in time. I'm just curious, what is structurally different about the non-interest-bearing deposit composition? Should we expect it to stay at this elevated level versus where it was pre-COVID?
spk06: I think it'll certainly stay at an elevated level compared to peer. I think it'll certainly stay at an elevated level with the composition between business and consumer. I think clearly we have an opportunity to leverage a broad business customer base and gather more deposits. And we do that unusually through our branch network. A lot of banks, the branch manager does not go out and make calls on small business. And in our bank, they are rewarded to not only do that, but to bring in core deposits and businesses that grow. So I think that's fundamentally a little different, certainly than our bigger bank brothers and sisters. And it's getting a need to get customers and not just customers that borrow from you. Jane, I mean, this has been your forte and your drumbeat for the last four or five years. Do you want to add to that?
spk09: The only thing that I would add is our loan portfolio, particularly on the commercial side, looks very different than it did four, five, six years ago. The loan portfolio today is overwhelmingly direct clients with whom we have direct relationships. And with those clients, we expect a depository relationship. And It's made all the difference in the world.
spk08: Is that helpful, Matt? Yeah, very helpful.
spk11: I mean, just as a follow-up, as we look at the book today versus pre-COVID, just as a reference point, are you capturing more client wallet share, or are you seeing similar granularity but over more accounts?
spk09: We are capturing more. I'm sorry, Mike. I didn't mean to stop you.
spk08: No, no. No, no. Go ahead.
spk09: I would say both. We are capturing much more wallet share. We've spent some money on our treasury management product and infrastructure. And we know that we need to be able to deliver. And so that when we ask for the operating relationship, we've got a product set that allows us to ask for it.
spk06: I would just add through our regional business model, we're much more likely to have a president or a senior lender much more closely knit to the other business lines, whether it's mortgage, wealth management, retail, and really bring other partners out to talk to that client and to help them, particularly on the personal banking side. Also on consumer lending opportunities and wealth management opportunities. we're getting a better share of the wallet than we were probably five, six years ago.
spk11: Understood. I appreciate all that detail. Maybe flip into the other side of the balance sheet. Could you provide what the roll-on blended loan yields are versus what's rolling off at this point? Yeah.
spk10: Yeah, give me a second. Let me pull that up. Yeah, so... For the quarter as a whole, we were putting on loans in the high fives, 588, and what was rolling off was at 544. So it was a 44 basis point differential.
spk08: Okay. And you have the pipeline yields all in?
spk10: I don't have the pipeline yields all in, but I can tell you that looking at what I'm looking in front of you, just speaking historically for the quarter just ended, those numbers improved consistently over every month in the quarter. So the new loan yield's going up, up, up as the quarter went up.
spk11: Understood. Yeah, I was waiting, you know, I was hoping there was a 6% number either at the pipeline or at quarter end.
spk10: Is that... Well, there are... Yeah, there are. So, for example, in individual business lines, this story will be different. So, and some businesses have longer tails than others. So, for example, when we're in a mortgage construction business, we'll be locked in a rate for a loan for someone who's building a house eight or nine months ago. That's a really low rate. And then it gets to the point where it gets on the books and it's a low rate. That brings down the current period yield. But for commercial variable adjustable loans, for example, one of our biggest categories where we originated at $400 million, those new money yields in the fourth quarter were in the high sixes, 667. So that really brings the low portfolio yield up. And that's I think that's been going very nicely. So the story depends on what portfolio you're talking about.
spk06: And that category was our largest category in the fourth quarter in terms of volume and throughput, almost $400 million.
spk10: Yeah, half of all the originations in that category and really helping. And that's the new origination money. The existing portfolio also repriced with the Fed rate increases. So that's been really helpful to the bank.
spk11: Got it. Maybe turn to indirect auto. I mean, I heard you at the onset. It sounds like there's really no notable deterioration in credit, delinquencies, criticized classifieds. I did want to hone in and get a little bit of additional color on indirect auto, which we're getting more questions on. Could you just give us a sense for the health of that book, the FICO's of the book, and maybe just an update on durations
spk06: Yeah, just we brushed up on this before the call. Average ticket's about 30, Jane, as you shared with us. Six-year duration and contracted duration, it tends to be shorter than that, two and a half years or so. You know, the average payment is up a little bit over the last year, about $50 to just over $500. And FICO, do we have that? No, over...
spk08: 700, but let me see if I can get more refined than that.
spk06: Yeah, good. Jane, do you want to add anything while Jim's finding the FICO? I know that's on the report there.
spk09: Yeah. You know, there's been really no degradation. You keep waiting for it to happen, but there's been none. And the used car market is staying very, very healthy. because there are still shortages in the used car market. You know, so few customers are leasing anymore that used car values are holding beautifully. And so far, it's been magical. We underwrite... Go ahead.
spk06: No, go ahead. I'm sorry, Jane. Go ahead and finish.
spk09: I was just going to say we are holding to our underwriting standards. We haven't blinked. And we are an A paper shop. So our capture rate is a little bit skinnier, a little bit lower than what you might see in other banks. We don't buy everything by any stretch.
spk06: 92% of our production is over 700 FICO.
spk11: Okay. Last one for me is just around capital management. you know, hopefully the worst of kind of any sort of major impacts that AOCI is behind us. I am curious, just given where the stock is and how you think about, you know, buybacks and if there's any level where you'd be more interested in that.
spk08: Jim?
spk10: Yeah, so we have $5.9 million remaining under our previously authorized authorization from our board. We had to stay in blackout while the central acquisition was pending. Actually, we had to stay in out of the market technically through today through their shareholder meeting, but obviously with the earnings We're out of the market anyway. We could go back into the market in a few days with that authorization. Generally, though, our big picture view of capital is that we are generating capital and using it for organic growth. And that's the primary purpose of generating the capital. And so we want to use that capital to fund our organic loan growth. If there's excess capital, we can use that for buybacks. I think with the $5.9 million of authorization we have, if we look at like a price reaction today, for example, that creates a buying opportunity. We would be in the market. We can't go to market weekly for at least three days from today anyway, but that would be a buying opportunity. And we'll continue to use that remaining optimization for buying on those kinds of dips. But by and large, we're going to use the rest of the year's capital generation to fund the organic loan growth. Great.
spk11: That's all I had. I appreciate you taking all my questions. Thank you. Thanks, Matt.
spk09: Hey, Mike, if it's okay, I hate to retread, but I do want to brag for just a minute. Back to the FICO score, we can be even more precise that 90% are greater than 700. The average FICO score for the auto portfolio is 770. The average for RAC is 785.
spk08: Thanks, Jane. I'm sure Matt heard that.
spk06: Operator, any other questions?
spk01: Our final question comes from Manuel Navas with DA Davidson.
spk08: Manuel?
spk01: I see there are no further questions at this time. I now turn the call back over to President and CEO Mike Price.
spk06: I always say this, but we just really appreciate the interest of the covering analysts, your questions, and the opportunity to share our story and our business with you. We're pretty passionate about it. We care a lot. And I hope it shows in the results. And look forward to being with a number of you over the course of the next 90 days.
spk08: Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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