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spk06: Good morning and welcome to Fluor's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a little lonely mode. A question and answer session will follow management's presentation. A replay of today's conference call will be available at approximately 10.30 a.m. Eastern Time today, accessible on Fluor's website at investor.fluor.com. The web replay will be available for 30 days. A telephone replay will also be available for seven days through a registration link, also accessible at Floor's website at investor.floor.com. At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn it over to Jason Lenkamer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lenkamer.
spk08: Thank you, Julie. Welcome to Floor's 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Call. David Constable, Floor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Joe Brennan, Floor's Chief Financial Officer, are with us today. Floor issued its third quarter earnings release earlier this morning, and a slide presentation is posted on our website that we will reference while making prepared remarks. Before getting started, I'd like to refer you to our safe harbor note regarding forward-looking statements, which is summarized on slide two. During today's presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements which reflect our current analysis of existing trends and information. There is an inherent risk that actual results and experience could differ materially. You can find a discussion of our risk factors, which could potentially contribute to such differences, in our 2021 Form 10-K and our Form 10-Q, which was filed earlier today. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these amounts to the comparable GAAP measures are reflected in our earnings release and posted in the investor relations section of our website at investor.floor.com. I'll now turn the call over to David Constable, FLUR's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. David?
spk03: Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Please turn to slide four. Before we get started on operational results, I want to share insights from FLUR's Supply Chain Summit in Greenville, South Carolina, on September 14th. This high-energy event brought together senior leadership from FLUR, our clients, suppliers, and contractors across the globe. Ongoing industry trends, new business ideas, and solutions to current supply chain challenges were discussed, and this event gave everyone an opportunity to meet and interact with Fluor clients and senior Fluor business line and supply chain leadership. Fluor committed the proceeds from the event to nonprofit organizations, including the Carolinas Virginia Minority Supplier Development Council, the Houston Minority Supplier Development Council, the Greenville Chamber, and Fluor Cares. The councils and chamber will use the donation funds to impart training and certification to minority-owned businesses, helping them get ready for relationships with larger corporations. Please turn to slide five. I want to start by addressing the legacy infrastructure charges incurred in the quarter. Clearly, the impact of these projects weighed heavily on our otherwise great results in the quarter. The $107 million in charges include $64 million for additional rework and schedule delays on the I-635 LBJ East freeway project, $22 million for cost growth and delay mitigation costs on the Gordie Howe project, and $21 million for subcontractor cost escalation and productivity estimates on the LAX automated people mover project. Over the past 21 months, FLUR's leadership team has taken action to improve the progress and execution of our legacy projects. Specifically in infrastructure, we've completed six of the nine challenge projects in this timeframe. We continue to strengthen the leadership on the three remaining legacy infrastructure projects in support of our joint ventures. In the last three months, we have shifted resources from across our organization, including claims management, project estimators, procurement, and field execution personnel. This is to not only support our specific efforts, but to also reinforce the performance of our joint venture partners. Finally, we are actively engaged in formalizing our entitlement positions on these three legacy projects to seek relief for cost growth and schedule delays. This has taken some time to perfect due to the complex nature of the projects in question. We expect to validate these substantial positions in the next few months.
spk00: Please turn to slide six.
spk03: Building upon the positive momentum from the previous quarter's one-to-one book to burn for new awards, Q3 new awards were $9.7 billion with a 2.7 book to burn ratio. Q3 was the second largest new awards quarter in FLUR's history. Importantly, these new contracts are accelerating FLUR's strategic priority of fair and balanced terms, with reimbursable work representing 91% of total awards for the quarter. A majority of our backlog is now reimbursable. New award margins continued our year-long trend of being above our internal plan. And we have a robust prospect pipeline that demonstrates the value that Fluor can provide to our clients. We are currently working on or recently completed feed and study packages that represent an estimated $131 billion in high quality new award prospects. We are also tracking feed and feasibility prospects in the next 18 months that represent more than $163 billion in capital expenditures. Of that amount, 40% is related to energy transition. Moving now to our business segments, please turn to slide eight. Urban Solutions reported a segment loss of $54 million for the third quarter. Results for the quarter reflect infrastructure cost growth on the legacy projects we just discussed. New awards for this segment approached a one-to-one book-to-burn ratio at $929 million of reimbursable work in mining and ATLS. This quarter, we made the decision to retain Storch's North American operations. Starting next year, this new business line, plant and facility services, will be in our urban solutions segment. As some of you may recall, this represents the original floor operations and maintenance base load business that supported North American clients before the acquisition of Stork. The new plant facility service business line will promote our strategic priority of driving growth across the portfolio. This will extend our relationship-driven business model beyond the initial EPC project execution contracts with existing clients, while also contributing new awards and growth opportunities. Joe will address the remaining STORC operations portfolio in his comments a little later. Now turning to slide nine. In mining, we continue to make progress on converting our near-term prospect pipeline. In Q3, we received an incremental award for one of our key projects in South America. We are currently working on a limited notice to proceed for multiple clients, and have $5 billion of near-term prospects to support demand for copper, gold, lithium, and metals for several clients that should be converted to full awards in the upcoming quarters.
spk00: Now please turn to slide 10. Our advanced technologies and life sciences business continues to expand.
spk03: In advanced technologies, we have several projects and prospects across the battery, and data center markets. Semiconductor opportunities continue to develop with many clients. Specific to Intel, we continue to receive incremental awards and are supporting their efforts to reprioritize investment plans. In life sciences, we were selected by a leading biologics company for a multi-hundred million dollar reimbursable contract to perform procurement and construction management for a large-scale biologics drug substance manufacturing facility located in Scandinavia. This project and over $3 billion in prospects in Europe and the U.S. next year also supports our strategic priority of driving growth across the entire company portfolio. During the quarter, we received work from a new client that provides cutting-edge robotics and automation technology for some of the largest retailers and wholesalers in North America. Our initial contract is for the installation of racks and automation equipment into five mega distribution centers. As these locations are completed, we see the potential to significantly expand this relationship across the United States. Please turn to slide 11. Since we already reviewed the challenges this quarter, I want to elaborate on our expectations for urban solutions and specifically the infrastructure business line. Two years ago, as part of our go-forward strategy, we narrowed the focus of our infrastructure business to state departments of transportation, moving away from large signature projects and focusing on regional road and bridge work. After we narrowed our focus, We further refined this strategy by adjusting our selectivity criteria. Simply put, this means saying no to projects, no to clients, or no to joint venture arrangements that do not provide an equitable balance of risk. And I can confirm that this selectivity strategy is working well. As an example, over the past 18 months, we've declined to bid on approximately $28 billion in infrastructure work. where we could not see a path to mitigate risk and still deliver an appropriate return. For projects we may pursue, we expect fair and balanced contract terms. This includes additional contingencies, the ability to procure equipment and materials early, and contracts where the client has some degree of responsibility for quantities and labor cost risk. In addition, we do not pursue EPC lump sum contracts where we are a minority partner. Moving on to slide 13. Mission Solutions reported segment profit of $29 million for the third quarter, consistent with our expectations. The photo on this slide is from our Ascension Island project for the Department of Defense, US Space Force, and the UK Royal Air Force. FLIR began restoring the auxiliary airfield to its full capacity in 2020. The eastern side of the runway is now complete and marks the halfway point of the project. New awards for the quarter include a $4.5 billion four-year extension with the U.S. Department of Energy for the FLUR-led Savannah River Nuclear Solutions LLC management and operations contract near Aiken, South Carolina. Work performed at the Savannah River site includes environmental management, and the cleanup of legacy materials, facilities, and waste remaining from the Cold War. The site also supports the U.S. government's non-proliferation efforts by processing and storing nuclear materials. Additionally, Mission Solutions has received a one-year extension from the U.S. Army to continue supporting work with U.S. Africa Command. Currently, we work at 14 sites in eight countries across the African continent. The outlook for Mission Solutions is increasingly optimistic with upcoming renewals, recompete, and new work. Moving to Energy Solutions, please turn to slide 15. Segment profit of $59 million reflects an embedded derivative loss of $5 million, a $4 million impairment related to the conclusion of a project in Russia, and declines in execution activity for projects nearing completion. This was offset by increased activity on recently awarded projects. New awards for the quarter included two reimbursable contracts totaling more than $2 billion for BASFs, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol, and infrastructure offsites and utility packages in China. Fluor was also awarded a $600 million award for a refinery upgrade in Mexico with our joint venture partner, IKA. This award is part of the reactivation of a residual upgrading project that was suspended in 2019. This is a fixed price contract that aligns with our strategy because it was awarded on a sole source basis with a long-term client where we have a strong relationship. Another major award recently announced is a reimbursable contract for front-end engineering, detailed design, and engineering and procurement services for Imperial. This project will use our renowned expertise to develop a world-class renewable diesel complex at the client Strathcona Refinery near Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The facility is expected to be the largest renewable diesel facility in Canada and will produce approximately 20,000 barrels of renewable product per day from locally sourced feedstocks. Turning to slide 16, at the LNG Canada project, This month, we celebrated our four-year milestone from receipt of the project's full notice to proceed. Our joint venture scope is approaching 75% complete. At the end of the quarter, 137 modules were shipped with 124 on site. All 215 modules are expected to be delivered by the middle of 2023. We continue to work with the client to resolve our COVID-related impacts across the primary job site and fabrication yards. Fluor is well positioned to support the increase in demand for LNG. During the third quarter, we announced a full notice to proceed on the new Fortress Energy FAST LNG2 project as a follow-up to the LNG1 project from Q1. We also see opportunity for additional reimbursable awards with this client early next year. Not only do we have prospects in the pipeline for LNG work, but we also have prospects to support our chemical clients. This includes a significant reimbursable prospect for a major chemical facility in North America. Moving to energy transition on slide 17, we are seeing ET activity across all of our business lines, including a project for a major automotive client that involves subject matter experts from energy solutions and mining and metals. In addition to this automotive award, Carbon Capture Incorporated, a US climate tech company, recently selected Fluor to provide engineering and project integration services for Project Bison in Wyoming. This will be the first atmospheric carbon removal facility to use Class VI wells for permanent CO2 storage and it will be the first scalable direct air capture megaproject in the United States. Moving to slide 19 and NuScale. In September, NuScale and KGHM signed a task order to initiate deployment of the first small modular reactor in Poland. Under this task order, NuScale is working with KGHM to identify and assess potential project sites and develop project planning milestones and cost estimates. It is anticipated that FLIR will engage in these activities early next year. On October 20th, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards issued a letter agreeing on NuScale's methodology for determining their small modular reactor emergency planning zones. The approved methodology will permit a smaller planning zone, thereby opening up a wider range of potential sites for NuScale plant locations, including, for example, coal-fired plants scheduled for decommissioning. Finally, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency awarded a grant to Romania's RoPower Nuclear, a subsidiary of the national nuclear energy producer, Nuclear Electrica, for a feed study to develop NuScale's first SMR plants in Romania. Joel talked more about this in the financial update, but I'll just mention as a reminder that Fluor remains the largest investor in NuScale with 57% ownership. And we are still considering the appropriate time and approach to begin monetizing our investment in NuScale. With that, let me turn the call over to Joe for the financial update. Joe?
spk02: Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. I will review our results for the third quarter. provide an update on our divestitures and capital structure plans, and go over the key financial outlook assumptions that support our 2022 guidance. Please turn to slide 21. For the third quarter of 2022, revenue of $3.6 billion increased from the ramp up of execution activities on refinery projects in Mexico, a recently awarded reimbursable LNG project, and the chemicals project David mentioned. Segment profit decreased to $31 million from $116 million a year ago. The decline stems from the $107 million in legacy infrastructure project charges previously discussed. Adjusted EBIT after the third quarter was $26 million, and our diluted adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.07. Results reflect a $16 million foreign exchange impact across a number of projects and energy and urban solutions. Corporate G&A expense for the quarter was $30 million, down from $45 million last quarter. This improvement included $12 million of incentives, reversals associated with the project charges taken in the quarter. Net interest income in the quarter was $14 million, compared to a $1 million expense last quarter. The increase in income is a result of the positive impact of rising rates on our global cash balances. As we anticipated, new award revenue for the quarter was $9.7 billion. This improved our backlog to $25.4 billion, which also improved our reimbursable backlog to 58%. Our cash and marketable security balances for the quarter was $2.6 billion, with 23% of this amount domestically available. Total cash includes $348 million held by NuScale. Please turn to slide 22. Our operating cash flow for the quarter improved to $118 million as working capital levels remain stable. For the year, we expect our cash balance to be roughly flat when normalized for the impacts of the new-scale DSPAC consolidation. Regarding the monetization of STORC and Amico, we continue to make progress. We have reached an agreement to divest STORC operations in Australia and New Zealand and this transaction is expected to close at the end of November. Although this transaction is not material, it is, however, an important next step in our journey to refocus the business. As David mentioned, rather than selling the Stork North American operations, we have decided to retain the operations as part of Urban Solutions. This will be reflected in our financial results starting in the first quarter of 2023. With respect to Storch European operations, our conversations with the preferred bidder have progressed, and we will provide more details in the near term. Please turn to slide 23. With the positive developments at NuScale, we continue to be asked about our ownership strategy. As we said on our last call and during our strategy day in 2021, our long-term intention is to own approximately 20% to 25% of NuScale. The DSPAC-related lockup period ended at the end of October. We are currently evaluating our options and will move forward as market conditions allow. At the end of the quarter, we had $1.1 billion in outstanding debt, including $145 million maturing in March of 2023. Our debt-to-capital ratio is 36.5%. We intend to retire our 2023 notes using available cash. With respect to our capital structure, we remain committed to our plans to reduce outstanding debt to a more appropriate level and use existing liquidity. The proceeds from NuScale and the monetization of our non-core units to address the needs of our business. Looking forward at options to distribute cash to shareholders, either by share buyback or dividend, we must be diligent in addressing these known uses of cash. We look forward to discussing future capital structure options at the appropriate time. Please turn to slide 24. For the fourth quarter, we are setting an adjusted earnings per share guidance range of 50 cents to 60 cents. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter to be in the range of $125 to $150 million. This range is driven by strong performance in energy solutions improved performance from urban solutions, and supported by over $15 billion in new awards year-to-date booked at higher new award margins than our internal expectations. Our assumptions for the fourth quarter include revenue of more than $4 billion, adjusted G&A expense of approximately $40 million, and an effective tax rate of approximately 34%. This may vary somewhat depending on the countries in which revenue is generated. Our expectations for segment margins in the fourth quarter are approximately 4.5% in energy solutions, approximately 4% in urban solutions, and approximately 3% in mission solutions. Finally, as it relates to our 2024 adjusted EPS and EBITDA guidance, we are currently in the process of finalizing our 2023 operating plan and our long-term strategic plan. We look forward to providing an update on our year-end call in February. Operator, we are now ready for our first question.
spk06: Thank you. Your first question comes from Mike Godas from Vertical Research, and we ask you that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please go ahead.
spk05: Thank you. Good Friday morning, everyone.
spk02: Hey, Mike. Good morning, Mike.
spk05: First question, David. Maybe you could share a little bit more detail of your thoughts on three areas of prospective award potential for the next several quarters. One, progress on semiconductors in the United States and near international exposure with Intel. Secondly, the timing and pace of some of the mining notices perceived that we may see. And third, from an energy standpoint, there's a lot of momentum. Obviously, you've got some big projects in China, but in the U.S., that large chemical project is at a a near-term, medium-term type opportunity? Are there any ones behind that that could hit in 2023?
spk03: Thanks, Mike. Yeah, good morning again. So semiconductors, you know, talking about specifically with Intel, where we've built up a great relationship with them, and you know, you've probably been hearing about what they're up to as far as CapEx. You know, they had $27 billion outlined for this year, dropped that down last quarter to $23 billion and now $21 billion for 2022, but jumping back up to over $28 billion in 2023. So, like I said in the prepared remarks, they're reprioritizing and looking at their plans and how to proceed and continue to you know, award us incremental work to make sure they're putting on, you know, the effort in all of their assets appropriately, including in the U.S. and internationally. So that's what we're working on now. We see with that type of CapEx going forward, we see that work coming on and they're keeping us busy but it'll be a little further out in 23 and 24 for the larger events, if you will. And that kind of lines up with, say, the likes of Samsung, who have seen a bit of a slowdown, but going forward, they see their CapEx has had no change in 2022 and is at $38 billion, going up to $39 billion in 2023. And their feeling is that they see the... their demand picking up in the second half of 23 for high-performance computing and in the automotive sector. So, yeah, it seems like it's just a bit of a pause here and then a pickback up in the second half of 23 is the way to classify that. And I'd also say that it is, like you said, U.S. and international, both in Asia. for us and into Europe is what they're looking at. Mining, we've got these, you know, it's starting to pick up, right? We had our strategic planning sessions here recently and talked about mining being in a really sweet spot right now and seeing a lot of new work come in and these limited notices to proceed. I mentioned the $5 billion in-house right now just on, you know, the front end limited notice to proceeds that will convert timing wise to your question I'd say in the next you know next quarter this quarter we're talking about plus into into the first half of 23 and maybe into the third quarter that type of time frame but certainly in the next nine months we expect to see see some great full notices to proceed in mining Energy, the chemical project I talked to is in North America. I'll just clarify that. And very exciting. And I call it an energy transition project. It's a path to zero project for the client that will be leading edge. And we want to certainly be involved with it to... to help that client but also help others with that low carbon footprint with their chemical facilities. So we expect more of that as well. Chemicals is one of our targeted business lines right now where we see quite a bit of growth coming down the pipeline as well. And I think that covered it. Is that right? Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Mike. Thank you.
spk05: Yeah, excellent. And can I just follow up quickly with a new scale? And is there any indication or thoughts on, you know, given the monetization of such a large state, any private investors, private equity, other vendors or other folks that are in government that are maybe looking or could possibly take a position from you guys in that transaction? Thank you.
spk03: Yeah, thanks, Mike. Yeah, just a great Great spot for us to be in right now with different optionality that we're looking at. And I'll ask Joe to comment.
spk02: Yeah, Mike, good morning. We have kicked off kind of a parallel path here relative to looking at strategics and looking at maybe some public activity. We do see a significant amount of value in terms of bringing in a strategic. In a lot of cases those strategics have a vested interest not only in the technology but in some cases looking to apply that technology so they become a very critical and important partner as we look at the valuations of NuScale moving forward. But at the same time we are also looking at some public opportunity for a transaction. What I will say is that we're going to do it in a very measured way such that we maintain not only the integrity and the valuations that are in NuScale but also the required liquidity that FLOR will need as we move out into 23 and into 24. Thanks, gentlemen.
spk00: Thanks, Mike. Thank you, Mike.
spk06: Your next question comes from Andy Whitman from Baird. Please go ahead.
spk11: Yeah, great. Thanks. Good morning. I just thought we'd check in on the three infrastructure projects here. Maybe David or Joe, you could give us the updated POC and completion dates on those three projects to get us going.
spk02: Maybe I'll take the detailed question on that and then we can talk a little bit higher level relative to how we're addressing the challenges we move forward. With the caveat too, Andy, when you think about this, what we've had in our prepared remarks relative to the development of claims and other things that are really right in front of us as we get into Q4. But in terms of LBJ, we're 50% complete as of Q3. Gordy is 41% complete, and LAX is 73% complete. And so with that, maybe David, if you wanted to... Yeah, Andy, good morning.
spk03: So just following on those percent completes, it looks like right now we're forecasting LBJ 635 completing in the second quarter of 25, Gordy completing in the second half of 2025, and LAX further along, as Joe said, 73% completing at the end of the second quarter of 2024.
spk02: Andy, if I could just add and kind of reinforce where we are relative to the development of claims and other entitlements as we move forward. Based on understanding cost and the cost impacts within these projects, we are recording those when they are made available and known to project teams, and it takes time to develop your claim positions and potential variable consideration around that. That is all starting to come to a head as we get into Q4 and into Q1 of next year. So I would expect as we move out, you'll start to hear a little bit of the flip side of what has been a difficult story to not only present but to hear. But I think you'll begin to understand some of our positions as floor in terms of how we support our overall EACs going forward.
spk11: Okay, so that's where I wanted to go next. I just want to be a little bit more clear on that because you actually mentioned some of this in the 10-Q as well, that in the fourth quarter you're having some of these discussions around them. So I just want to – are you saying, Joe, that you've taken reserves on some of these and you're trying to reclaim that? Or is the $215 million balance of unapproved change orders that's in your 10-Q, is that's what's being discussed? So I just want to understand which way – Any outcomes from these discussions could go as they get recognized on your income statement here. Wanted to be just clear about that if possible.
spk02: Yeah, let me suggest that in terms of what we've recorded in cost and then potential recovery of variable consideration is a smaller component of the overall claims that we will be putting on the table. And those claims are significantly larger than our current positions, not only as it relates to variable consideration, but we have recorded 100% of the cost associated with that. So what you're seeing in our Q3 presentation today is really what we consider to be the downside pending all of these additional claims and discussions that will occur. And I will suggest to you it's not across just LAX, and it's not across Gordy. It's across a significant portion of the infra portfolio. Nominally, if I look forward.
spk00: All right. That's helpful context. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Andy.
spk06: Your next question comes from Andy Capobritz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
spk01: Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Good morning. David, obviously you put a really strong quarter of bookings. You gave us good color, I think, regarding individual end markets with a lot of possible potential bookings coming up. Given some of the concerns you mentioned from some of your customers, can you continue your recent bookings momentum and ultimately do you see backlog continuing to rise from here, call it in the near to medium term?
spk03: Good morning, Andy, and thanks for the question. I think we talked about it a little bit before. We've got some recessionary pressures and inflation that we're seeing in the marketplace. However, even with the mild recession that we're expecting in the US and maybe more so in Europe, the global recession is I think the GDP forecast right now is for 2.7% to 2.9% on average. And you throw in what China may or may not do as far as how they get back on track after their zero COVID policy gets finished up. So that could rapidly give a lift to the global economy. But having said all that, from our perspective and talking to our clients and looking at their CapEx plans, Generally speaking, if you take a sample of some of our key clients across the three business segments, the CapEx plans are generally heading up. Take the top 10 clients, $175 billion in 2022 up to $195 billion in 2023. A good piece of that, let's call it $30 billion, is energy transition. These are decade-long decisions on the projects we work on and not really impacted by a temporary slowdown or recession in economic activity. Our head of strategy was telling us that in a recent conference board CEO survey, 136 CEOs, 98% of them are planning on a recession in the next 12 to 18 months, but 86% of them said that they're maintaining or increasing capital spending. So the money is there. It's coming. We obviously have to be really sharp on our estimates. Fortunately, the supply chain forecasts for softening of prices, generally speaking, and that will help with our estimates and our rate of returns for our clients. So, yeah, I think we will continue to, you know, we said last quarter that we feel that we're at an inflection point for backlog. and thinking that our book-to-burn ratios can stay at or above one, certainly. And based on those treaty plans we've just gone through, we've got these headwinds on new awards and backlog continuing across our business lines. Joe?
spk02: Maybe I would just add that the pipeline that we were communicating over the previous quarters was pushed to the right slightly, but as we start to see this inflection point and our new award ramp, what I would suggest to you is that pipeline that we were looking at that's driving to some of the release of this capital into some of the project activity that we've been able to put into backlog has not fundamentally changed as we look forward. Those opportunities still exist. it'll be a little bit chunky because some of these opportunities are multi-billion and others are more strategic, but the pipeline itself has not fundamentally changed in terms of what we're looking at and how we're viewing our business moving forward.
spk03: I think the really good news is that the new strategy has us really pushing on reimbursable work, and that has not slowed or cut us out of opportunities. In fact, we're seeing improving margins as we've talked about the last several quarters. We've been talking about improved margins since Q4 of 21. So, yeah, we're quite bullish on the markets in front of us.
spk01: Very helpful, guys. And maybe kind of a similar question on the earnings side. You talked about revenue ramp up to over $4 billion in Q4. You know, you guys know that you have the 24 targets out there. I think we talked about, you know, maybe an EBITDA target in 24, 7 to 900, which would require a pretty big step up next year. So, you know, again, without saying probably too much about 23, how is your visibility toward that step up? Do we, you know, is it more back-end loaded to get to 24? Do we see sort of a rateable step up here in 23 as we go through? you know, given the higher revenue in Q4.
spk03: Yeah, no, it's something we're looking at right now, like I said, in our strategic plans, and we're doing our operating plan for 23 here, second week of December. Joe, any kind of general comments on guidance and how we're going to be handling that?
spk02: I think my general guidance is that we had signal to the market that we were probably closer to maybe two quarters earlier into these types of backlogs improvements, so that two-quarter impact in terms of how it flows into the overall burn for the P&L will have a little bit of an impact on where we are in 24. We haven't finalized all those numbers, but we're not seeing a drastic departure at this point. It does support what we've laid out back at the beginning of 2021. I think the delay is going to be what we're working our way through in discussion right now, but certainly not the quantum of new awards to support a robust growth trajectory into the outward years.
spk01: Helpful, guys. Thank you.
spk02: Thank you.
spk04: Your next question comes from Jamie Cook from CreditSys. Please go ahead. Hi. Good morning. First question, just trying to understand what drives the sequential revenue increase from Q4 to Q3, the $4 plus billion, and what's implied in the operating margin in Urban Solutions just because that market has, you know, the margins in that business have been challenged. So what do we need to get to that, I think, 4.5% margin or so? And then my other question, Joe, obviously the run rate in the fourth quarter, you know what I mean, in EBITDA you're seeing 125% to 150%. Is that a good base, quarterly base, to think about as we're going into 2023, assuming we don't have execution issues? So the 125 times 4, I'm just trying to frame 2023 with that earnings base and just with some of the success you've had on the recent bookings. Thank you.
spk02: Yeah, thank you, Jamie. The growth that we're seeing in revenue is the fact that – and we have led into this over multiple previous quarters, that when we were taking these – projects into backlog as new awards. They weren't projects that were issued through an ITB, not all of them. A majority of them we had been working on and we had a percentage of progress on those projects that now that they're into backlog, they will be generating higher revenue at a quicker rate just based on percentage of progress and completion. I think that's why you're seeing an uptick in Q3, and we would expect that to grow. And your second question, Jamie?
spk04: The margins in urban solutions, just given what we've seen, the challenges so far this year?
spk02: Yeah, I think what we'll – sorry, go ahead, Jamie.
spk04: Yeah, go ahead. I was just like the fourth quarter margin on urban solutions confidence level there.
spk02: We're very confident in the 4% that we've laid out relative to Q4.
spk04: But what's driving it?
spk02: What's driving it? Well, clearly we're not having the challenge projects that we're having. If we strip out the challenge projects, I can get back to a normalized run rate that is in that 4% range just based on the backlog that's flowing through the segment.
spk04: Okay. Then my last question was, you know, for 2023, can I sort of say, you know, your fourth quarter EBITDA is 125 to 150. Is that a good base, quarterly base to think about as we're going into 2023?
spk02: I believe, Jamie, that is a good launching point to think about a very simplified linear run rate moving forward as we go through the operating plan over the next couple of weeks and are able to provide you significantly additional color in the Q4 earnings call. But I don't see the 125 being the bottom of our run rate moving forward. I see it as more of a launching point and a starting point. as we begin to put in. You've got to remember, too, Jamie, we just put in $15 billion nominally of good, high-quality backlog, and that is going to start flowing through the books.
spk04: Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. Thanks, Jamie.
spk06: Your next question comes from Stephen Fisher from UBS. Please go ahead.
spk07: Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the urban solutions margins and performance and really ask about the expectations that you want to set for the segment. Obviously, you just talked about Q4 in some detail, but more curious about the next couple of years as you go through the completion process on those projects. Should we assume that There's just going to be some noise on more charges going forward. I know typically, you know, once you get in these positions, it kind of gets hard to fully have no charges until completion. So I'm just kind of curious what expectation you want to set. I know you said that we might start thinking about, you know, flipping it the other way and getting some claims recovery, but just curious how you want to set the expectation over the next couple of years on how this may influence your sort of clean quarters or not.
spk02: Steven, yeah, I'll take that question. We believe as of today, we've captured with the facts and circumstances as we know them, the forecast. Obviously, it's difficult to say that we guarantee there will not be additional challenges on projects that have a couple of years of execution to complete, but as of today, we believe we are starting to make enough progress to where we're getting more comfortable with Gordy and with LAX, and I think we've ring-fenced LBJ. We had talked about penguins in the past, and we feel very comfortable we've got a deal to get the conclusion on it. So as time passes, we'll obviously get more assurances on our deliverability within the framework of the forecast that we've laid out today. As of today, we believe we've captured the appropriate forecast to get to conclusion. Some of what we're talking about in terms of variable consideration and change orders and claims that are rolling out in fourth quarter will be of a public nature. You will hear some of that coming through news releases and others as we issue some of these claims. But I don't want to get out in front of exactly what all the moving pieces of that, but it does apply to about five projects across the infra business line. And we'll be able to provide a lot more transparency around that as we get into the Q4 earnings call.
spk03: Yeah, Stephen, I'll just add, to help us along here, Joe talked earlier about the percent completes. And when you're in the 50% to 75% complete range like we are, 45% to 75%, say, right now, since we're in the Q4, that we're almost bought out completely on these products, over 90% bought out from an equipment and supply standpoint, so also very helpful that that's behind us.
spk02: I guess maybe I'll add one other thing because these are the challenges that we're dealing with. We've marshaled a significant amount of the resources around the company, the best you know, that we have relative to, a number of changes have been made through the project management side, the construction management side. We continue to shift resources across through estimating, through procurement, through prime contract administration, very key roles on all of these jobs. And so we have, we are laser focused on being able to deliver these projects. They are significantly challenged projects and and not to be repetitive. They clearly would not have made it through our pursuit criteria and backlog today, but we are laser focused on getting these projects to conclusion and completion.
spk07: Great. And then I guess just a follow-up similar sort of question specifically related to LNG Canada. How is the ongoing inflation in the marketplace affecting that project in particular, and obviously you have some discussions going on on that one as well, but I think that's more related to COVID impacts, but maybe the inflation gets baked under that umbrella. How should we think about inflation on that project?
spk03: Yeah, I think that's, you know, procurement's complete, all bought out. Really, we're putting, you know, basically in fabrication and construction mode, Stephen, so that's all behind us. And as you said, it's more of a COVID and scheduled discussion that we're working on right now.
spk02: Any additional inflation exposure that you're going to have is around the labor, but they're covered off with PLA agreements, project labor agreements. So for the most part, we have some containment within what we potentially could see in that labor escalation. But But as David said, most of that risk has been cleared off. And most of that risk would run through your material and equipment accounts. And to the extent that we're bought out and all of those pieces of equipment are either at site or in our fab yards in China, we feel like we've limited substantially our exposure to any type of price escalation to get to completion on this project.
spk07: Yeah, it was mostly about the labor, but you have addressed that. So thank you very much. Thanks, Stephen.
spk06: Your next question comes from Sean Eastman from KeyBank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk10: Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Joe, when you're talking about being diligent around known uses of cash, obviously the 2023 notes that you'll pay down is defined. But what else are you talking about there? And in particular, I'm curious beyond the $100 million, of cost to fund loss projects you highlighted for the fourth quarter. What's that number going to be for 2023?
spk02: In 2023, we're looking, Sean, at a number that hasn't been affected by the variable consideration and the claims and how we view those. If I look at it straight up without considering the variable consideration and our discussion around claims, it's probably a little higher number than we would expect it to be at this point in the two to 250 million range in 2023. But again, we have not layered in all of these discussions as we start submitting claims and and looking at potential clawback. So at this point, there's going to be a fair amount. I don't see upside variability in that, but I do see some downside variability as we mature some of these discussions with the clients. So really it's running through the maturities in the 2023s and 2024s and challenge projects as we see them today.
spk10: Okay. Thanks for that, Joe. And then along similar lines, you know, I mean, the, the, you know, a key turning point for the story here is sort of marking this material improvement in operating cash flow generation. Is the message still that that's a 2023 event?
spk02: Yes, I believe, Sean, you will begin to see improved cash flow, slightly improved cash flow as we still, you know, the 23s are coming out, so we'll have some headwind there. You're going to have some, you know, challenge projects. But there are other sources of cash that we will be able to access as we get further progressed on a couple of key projects that have an opportunity to be pulling, you know, cash back in in the form of dividends. But I don't want to get into too much of the specifics around that. But there are sources of cash that as we tick off some of these risk items, will allow us to begin to repatriate some of that back into Flourish banks.
spk10: Okay. Thanks for that.
spk00: I'll turn it over.
spk06: Your next question comes from Brent Sillman from D8 Davidson. Please go ahead.
spk09: Hey, great. Thank you. On urban solutions, when you think about where the award opportunities are coming from, and then also sort of this deliberate transition in the segment portfolio over the next few years, how do you think about what the end market exposure could look like sort of between, call it mining metals, advanced technologies, and then the traditional sort of infrastructure projects? I guess I'm just wondering, does the infrastructure stuff ultimately become a much smaller piece of that pie?
spk03: Yeah, good morning, Brett. You know, again, as I've mentioned here a few times, we've just gone through the strategic planning process. It's taken us through 2026. And I'd also mention that mining and metals is really just, we couldn't have a better market right now for mining and metals and also for ATLs. with all the opportunities they have in front of it, both domestically and internationally. Those are two really strong growth engines for the company going forward and based on what we're seeing. Actually, line of sight on prospects, quite far out in time, actually, as you will have with mining. Looking at it, to your specific question, we see infra being about probably 10% of the urban solutions portfolio going forward into the planning period that we're looking at through 2026 and sooner. And then between mining and ATLS, you can think about it probably, like I said, because it is so powerful in mining right now, you'll probably see mining at 65% of the business segment. and ATLS about 20%. And then we've got other, we've got the TRS, our agency staffing company, and we're just building up the plant and facility services business as well. So that'll sit in other, in the near term, about 5%. So 65% mining, 20% ATLS, 10% in infra, and 5% in other. I think that's about right.
spk09: That's really helpful. Appreciate that. And then on mission solutions and particularly the strong awards, how much was associated with Savannah River this quarter versus some of the other activities in the segment? And then any update on Pantex? I know customers may be deliberating splitting that up, but any potential timing to get back involved with that?
spk02: So I, yeah, 4.5 billion of that award of the new award totals for mission, um, rolled through the Savannah project. And as it, as it relates to Pantex and Y12, we know that we've split those two contracts. Um, Pantex will come out towards the middle end of 2023 in the form of a bid. And we will go that go through that process. We've done a lot of internal work to reposition. our pursuit criteria and strategy around how we're going to attack the Pantex opportunity and then how we'll, you know, pursue and attack the Y-12. The Y-12 will be further out into the strategic planning cycle, more into the end of mid to end of 2025 before we have an understanding of, but we will be pursuing both of those opportunities as they are split. But the construct of how we will be pursuing them, the strategy around those pursuits will look slightly different.
spk09: Okay, I appreciate it. And any other sort of meaningful opportunities along the way in that segment beyond those two?
spk03: Yeah, we've got lots of re-competes ongoing in the nuclear and civil space and DOE, DOD and DOE actually. Yeah, we just see that continuing on a good trajectory like we've had, and then feather in, obviously, the larger Pantex and Y-12 opportunities in the 2024-2025 timeframe.
spk00: Okay, great. Thank you. Thanks, Brett.
spk06: This is all the time that we had for today's questions. I will turn the call back over to David for closing remarks.
spk03: Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for participating on the call today. And just to conclude, you know, we're very pleased with the pace and timing of new awards in today's economic environment. You know, Fluor is a great company with exceptional people, and, you know, we're well positioned to meet the ever-growing needs of our clients. And, you know, finally, be assured that These three legacy project challenges the company's working through this quarter are in no way a reflection on the overall health and very positive direction that Fluor Corporation is heading in. So we appreciate your interest in the company today, and thank you again for your time.
spk06: This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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