Flutter Entertainment plc

Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call

3/26/2024

speaker
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Flutter first quarter 2024 earnings call hosted by CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Paul Edgecliff-Johnson. Please note this conference is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be in listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand over to your host, Paul Timms, to begin today's conference.
speaker
Paul Timms
Hi, everyone, and welcome to Flutter's Q1 2024 results call. With me this morning are Flutter CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson. After this short intro, Peter will open up with a brief run-through of our good progress during the quarter, and then Paul will take you through the Q1 financials. We will then open up the lines for Q&A. I would also like to remind you that some of the information we are providing today, including our 2024 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. There are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release, our annual report on Form 10-K, and our upcoming Form 10-Q to be filed with the SEC. In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations as of the date of this call, and the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law. Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in the results materials we have released today, available in the Investors section of our website. And with that, I will hand you over to Peter. Thank you, Paul.
speaker
Paul
Before we get into Flutter's excellent performance in the quarter, I first wanted to update you on our US primary listing. As you all have already noted, our proposal to move our primary listing from London to the New York Stock Exchange received overwhelming support at our recent AGM on May the 1st. With this approval now in place, we expect the transition to become effective on May the 31st. This is a key milestone in the natural evolution of Flutter, as Fangio continues to scale rapidly and the US becomes an even greater part of our business. We have now established our operational headquarters in New York, reflecting just how fundamental the US is to our long-term future growth. Moving now to the performance of the business in Q1 2024. I was really pleased with the progress made during the quarter on our strategic objectives. In the US, Fangio is off to a very strong start, consolidating our sports leadership position with a 52% online NGR sports book market share. We also achieved a 27% share in iGaming, where Fangio is now the number one brand. This clear leadership position was delivered through both our leading product offering and our relentless focus on disciplined customer acquisition investment, where our superior structural margins and higher retention rates are delivering payback periods at very attractive levels. Our investment in customer acquisition and product innovation means we are embedding future profits into the business as we continue to scale. The effectiveness of this strategy is reflected in our strong execution during the quarter. Total US amps were 15% higher than the prior year and included a record 2.6 million customers for Super Bowl in February. This includes a 12% year-on-year increase in newly acquired players in pre-2022 states, demonstrating the very strong demand for our Fangio offering in states that have already been open for a number of years. We launched our Fangio Sportsbook product in Vermont and North Carolina during the period, with North Carolina quickly becoming one of our most successful state launches, with an incredible one in 20 adults in North Carolina signing up to be a Fangio customer in the first 45 days. We continue to offer the best customer proposition in the US market, both in terms of the quality of our product and the value given to customers. Our pricing sophistication means we have the highest structural gross win margin, whilst at the same time offering the customers the best pricing in the market. Our product offering is continually evolving, and I'm genuinely excited by the pipeline ahead of us. During the quarter, we added a range of new betting markets on MLB ahead of the new season start, and this has led to a four percentage point increase in the proportion of handle on MLB same game parlays during the first three weeks of the season. In iGaming, we launched more exclusive content, namely the World of Wonka, a very popular title with retail casino customers, which quickly surpassed expectations, becoming the most popular title in our portfolio. I'm delighted with the progress we're making in the US, with the strength and scale of our business making FanDuel the clear number one in the market. As we continue to grow, it is very important that we do that in a sustainable way. Our players are at the heart of our business and our focus is on ensuring that they're able to engage and interact with our products in an entertaining and responsible way. Amy, Christian and the team have been spearheading progress in the US on responsible gaming and setting the gold standard for the industry. Fangio was instrumental in the establishment of the Responsible Online Gaming Association, or ROGA. which we believe will help create the framework needed to support consistent, responsible gaming practices across the industry. Our experience internationally in this area has taught us the importance of taking a proactive approach, and we believe Rogo will provide the industry with the right platform to help drive this forward. Outside of the US, Group X US revenues grew by 8%, driven by UKI and International, and the addition of MaxBet to our International division. which offset the expected declines in Australia, where we have flagged softer racing market dynamics previously. In the UKI, we continue to deliver strong growth, taking significant market share during March, driven by the key Cheltenham Racing Festival, with our iGaming business in particular seeing a continuation of the excellent momentum we had during 2023. We leveraged the power of the Flutter Edge, launching SuperSub on the Paddy Power Sportsbook app, a product that was developed in our international division. SuperSub allows a customer to swap a substitute player into a parlay bet, keeping the bet alive. It's proven incredibly popular, with more than 80% of our Sportsbook customers using the product since launch, and has become the best ever product launch campaign to date for our UKI division. In iGaming, we further expanded our content with the launch of over 100 new titles, driving a step up in cross-sell rates. Moving to international, we are pleased to complete our acquisition of MaxBet in January, and integration has been progressing well. In Italy, CESAL is seeing excellent momentum, delivering market share gains with record amps in March, up 22% compared to March 2023. This is all the more impressive given the challenging prior year comps due to the record super and elotto jackpot, which boosted 2023 player engagement to peak levels in Q1. On Sportsbook, the new CESAL betting app, which launched in Q3 2023, continued to engage customers and drove staking 24% higher in Italy year on year. New iGaming content, including the launch of a free-to-play bonus wheel feature, boosted cross-sell rates. And across our other markets, I've also been really pleased with the growth we've delivered in Georgia and Armenia, Spain, as well as in Brazil. In India, we launched Junglee Poker during the period, and we've seen encouraging levels of player engagement since launch. Overall, the group has produced a strong set of results in Q1. Our U.S. business is a clear number one in the market, delivering an earnings transformation with strong revenue growth and operating leverage, while still enabling us to invest and embed future value in our business. Outside of the U.S., our scaled, diversified portfolio and focus on product innovation continues to underpin growth. And with that, I hand you over to Paul.
speaker
Paul
Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Groove delivered another strong set of financial results in the first quarter and remains on track for strong growth in the full year. Our revenues grew by 16% to $3.4 billion and our adjusted EBITDA by 46% to $514 million. We delivered a 310 basis point improvement in our adjusted EBITDA margin driven by strong operating leverage in our U.S. business, despite our continuing strategy of investing into new customer acquisition. On a reported basis, the group had a net loss of $177 million. This was after amortization of acquired intangibles of $172 million and a $184 million charge from marking to market the value of the Fox option. This notional value charge resulted in earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share declines of 52 cents and 59 cents respectively. Adjusted free cash flow was $207 million higher than the prior year at $157 million, while our leverage ratio reduced from 3.1 times at the full year to 2.8 times at the end of March, closer to our 2 to 2.5 times target. Turning now to each of the divisions. In the US, our disciplined investment in customer acquisition and retention drove strong top-line growth, with revenue up 32% year-on-year. Sportsbook revenue grew 30%, with staking up 24%, including continued growth in staking in pre-2022 states of 19%. and an increase in our net revenue margin of 40 basis points to 7.3%. Promotional spend levels were in line with last year, while our superior product and pricing accuracy continued to drive structural margin improvements with our expected structural margin in line with what we saw in quarter four. These gains were partly offset by $76 million of unfavorable sports results in the final two weeks of March. In the March madness, college basketball tournament. Our strong growth in iGaming has continued, with revenue up 49% and particularly strong momentum in slots revenue up 73%. There's excellent revenue performance in the US, and our scalable cost base drove adjusted EBITDA up $79 million to $26 million. Sales and marketing expenses reduced by 410 basis points as a percentage of revenue, despite our investment into two new state launches, and contributed to our 680 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. Outside of the US, amps grew by 10% and revenue by 8%, with a particularly strong performance in iGaming, where revenues were up 15%. That growth was driven by UK and I in international divisions, while in Australia, we were pleased to see that market levels of activity appear to be stabilising in line with our expectations when we published our 2024 guidance. UK and I delivered another excellent quarter, with revenue up 17% or 12% on a constant currency basis. We expanded our sportsbook structural margin by 100 basis points to 12.6%, contributing to revenue growth of 9% and grew iGaming revenue by 27%. Our scalable cost base translated the 17% revenue growth into 30% adjusted EBITDA growth. In our international division, we grew AMPS 20%, helped by the earlier start of the cricket IPL, and revenues by 5%. CECEL's Italy revenue declined 1%, with a year-on-year swing in sportsbook results resulting in a 12% growth headwind. Sportsbook revenue therefore declined by 12% despite staking being up 24%, while our gaming revenues grew 7%, including 24% iGaming growth. International adjusted EBITDA grew 16%, aided by the closure of FoxBed and some cost phasing. Revenue in the international divisions key consolidate and invest markets grew 8%, all relating to the acquisition of MaxBet, a strong growth in Georgia, Armenia, Spain and Brazil, was offset by the Italian sports result headwind and by last year's gaming tax changes in India, which reduced our revenues from that market by 25%. Turning now to the outlook for the remainder of 2024. We are maintaining our previous guidance. despite the unfavorable sports results in the last two weeks of March, given the strong momentum we're seeing in the business. Using the midpoint of our ranges, in the U.S., we continue to expect revenue of $6 billion, which equates to year-on-year growth of 36%, and adjusted EBITDA of $710 million. We said at the end of March that we expected 30% of U.S. EBITDA to be in half won. And given the impact of unfavorable sports results that we had in the last two weeks of March and the strength of our North Carolina launch, you can assume that this becomes a little more backhand weighted into half two and quarter four. Outside the U.S., we continue to expect revenue of $7.85 billion, 6% growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.73 billion, 5% growth. As always, our guidance is provided on the basis that sports results are in line with our expectations for the remainder of the year and in a consistent regulatory and tax environment. To wrap up, we are very pleased with the performance of the business in Q1. We are continuing to build a business of scale with leading positions in the key markets around the world, and we look to the future with great confidence. And with that, Peter and I are happy to take your questions. In the interest of everyone getting a chance to ask a question, we would ask you to limit your questions to two per person, and we'll come back to you if we have time at the end. Gavin, please could you now open the line?
speaker
Operator
If you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. And your first question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley.
speaker
Ed Young
Your line is open. Morning, Ed. Good morning.
speaker
Ed
My first is on the U.S. division. Could you please help by bridging us from the current 59% cost of sales you delivered in Q1 to the better than 56.5% you'll need to average for the remainder of the year to meet your 56.5% full-year guidance? The second one also in the U.S., the iGaming performance continues to be very strong, and obviously you've got very good momentum there. I just wonder if you could perhaps give some colour on what's driving such excellent slots performance. I mean, 73% growth is very high. It'd be interesting to hear a bit more colour on that. Or looking at it the other way around, is there something that's not as good on the table game side that is either a drag relatively to that number or an opportunity going forward? It'd be interesting to see how you see the dynamics of iGaming growth going forward. Thank you.
speaker
Paul
Thanks, Ed. Let me just quickly deal with the iGaming one and then I'll let Paul come in with a slightly more complicated one around sort of cost. But I think from an iGaming perspective, you know, we always were sort of confident that, you know, 2024 is the year where we try and take market leadership. Think about what we said, Capital Markets Day, you know, it was about sort of fixing broken things. It was sort of reaching product parity and then getting ahead, and that's what we've done. It's important to recognize that we've, you know, we've got ahead by acquiring a lot of business in the direct-to-casino space. And if you look at customers' preferences, the direct casino players are much more interested in slots than they are table games. Table games are typically used by customers, sports customers who are cross-selling. So that's why we see that strong growth in slots. And it's aligned with the strategy we've had to continue to grow the iGaming business whilst we meet the great return criteria.
speaker
Paul
And in terms of the U.S. division, Ed, so the 59% cost of sales that we saw in the first quarter is really in line with what we're expecting. We are investing heavily in that quarter into the North Carolina launch, which, as you know, is a big state. So we have made a significant investment, and we've won the state as far as we can see the data. We've signed up almost 1 in 20 adults, so we're really pleased with the results there, but obviously it comes at a cost. And with the... With the sports results that we saw around March Madness, that has depressed revenue somewhat. So it'll just normalize through the year to the 56% that we've guided to, which you'll remember is in line with our prior IFRS guidance. So that'll just come back and normalize across the year. But thanks, Ed.
speaker
Ed
Okay, I'll just follow up on that answer because presumably... um your structural holds going to be lower in future quarters or leads in two and three versus q1 and q4 does that mean your promotions will also be also be lower those others i'm not really sure what the difference would be quarter on quarter and i guess putting it the other way if you're gonna be better than 56 for most of this year does that mean it might be above 56 in future years um so
speaker
Paul
If we talk about the structural hold, which we saw in the fourth quarter of last year at 13.5%, we've said that it's very similar in the first quarter this year. And given the mix of sports and the strong proportion of parlays, which drives that higher margin, we have seen the biggest state launch of the year in the first quarter. So there's a big investment there. We've also seen significant losses, which we'll have to see what happens through the course of the year. But that has impacted the percentage there. Otherwise, it would have been in line with what we talked about, the 56%. So you'd expect to see the bookends of Q1 and Q4, where we have the highest structural hold. And where there's most business, that's where you have more promotional intensity. because that's where you want to try and win customers. So that's where you'd expect to be investing more.
speaker
Ed Young
So hopefully that helps, Ed. Thanks. Thanks, Ed.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender from Citizens JMP. Your line is open.
speaker
Jordan Bender
Good morning, everyone. I want to stick with the iGaming business in the US. You know, the data isn't always perfect that we get, but it seems like your generosities were up significantly in the quarter last So with the share gains, is that a combo of, is it new product and higher promotions? Or I think you mentioned prepared remarks. You're just seeing better cross-sell with your offerings. Thank you.
speaker
Paul
Morning, Jordan. I think, yeah, the key factor for me, and you'll hear us talk a lot about this, is we continue to acquire as much business as we can whilst we meet the return criteria. We aim for less than two years and we've been well within that. And that's as true for iGaming as it is for sports. I think the team are doing a terrific job in executing. Fangio is now the number one player in iGaming. We've taken significant share. We're doing that with real strength in the direct casino space. I mentioned earlier, the strength we have in slots. It is 70% of the market, it's the fastest growing part of the market, so it's the place you want to be strongest, and we've got some exclusive content there. We are very sophisticated with our application of generosity. It's something that we think is a very important component of our approach in all facets of the business, whether it's how we apply our generosity into our sports customers, but also into our gaming And we've got some unique mechanisms that we can apply in iGaming. So we're very pleased with the performance of the business. We've got a good product. I think the team are doing a great job around marketing and attracting the direct casino customers. Of course, we're continuing to benefit from the size of our sports betting business as well.
speaker
Ed Young
Great. And then just... Go ahead if you have another question, Jordan, please.
speaker
Jordan Bender
Yeah, sorry. I just wanted, on the follow up, I just want to make sure I got the message right. You're unchanged on the guidance for the US business despite that $76 million headwind. Is that primarily just outperformance in North Carolina? Are you seeing anything else coming in better than your expectations?
speaker
Paul
We've had a, thanks, Jordan. We've had a very good launch in North Carolina, so we're very pleased with the market share we've gained there. We're very pleased with the market share we've got across the U.S. as a whole. You know, 52% of the NGR we think is a fantastic place to continue to build from. And the business is going well as we look at April numbers and our outlook for the rest of the year. It's all very positive. And on the basis of that, we have held our guidance. Thank you very much. Nothing further really we can say on that, though, Jordan. But thank you very much.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Monique Pard from Citi. Your line is open.
speaker
Monique
Hi. Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one I just had was whether you could give some color on, I guess, North Carolina and also Ohio, the two states that have been the most successful launches, what you've done differently in those states that's allowed you to acquire so many players so rapidly. And whether you find that there's some specific advantage to acquiring these players, you know, very early on. So in those first 45 days versus, you know, sometime within the first 12 months. That's the first question. And then the second question, more of a technical one for Paul. I'm struggling to get to the net interest guidance, the 370 for 2024. I guess, you know, if I look at the 1Q, we're already at 112. And I know you've done the refinancing, but from what I can work out, that saves you about 12 million of interest per annum. So just trying to understand how we get to that 370 for the year.
speaker
Paul
Thank you, Monique. So let me talk to you about North Carolina and Ohio. But it's also true for Vermont or any of the other states that we've launched in. And with each new state launch that we have, we find that we get even better at refining our playbook in going to market. We do have a big advantage in being able to convert our DFS customers into sports betting customers. That's an important component of what we do. There's also the fact that we have our large established customer base, and so we're able to use mechanisms like to refer a friend, which become important and allow us to benefit from our scale. We have also, though, switched to national advertising. And so the brand and the product is becoming better known to consumers in states when they launch, and there's a lot of pent-up demand. In answering to your question around is there an advantage in acquiring the customer's early, we believe there is. We've got the best product in the market, and so the extent to which customers are able to get onto the best product early, they stick with us. And if we look at the way that the cohorts are performed from those customers who acquired back in 2018 or subsequent years, they've stuck with us. So I think it's important to get in early. We find that actually the acquisition costs in doing so, from the benefits of our scale really help us. And having a bigger business allows us to get ultimately more operating leverage and gives us greater scale. So it's all very helpful.
speaker
Paul
And in terms of the net interest, Monique, I mean, the two components obviously are what we pay on our debt balances and then the interest that we receive on our cash balances, which do fluctuate through the year. And it's building in that interest received through the year, which may be where you're not getting the right number. because that does obviously fluctuate quite significantly during the course of the year, but very happy to follow up with you on that afterwards, because that can be quite a big number. So as I say, happy to follow up afterwards, Monique. Thanks very much.
speaker
Monique
Okay, thank you.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Clark Lampin from BTIG. Your line is open.
speaker
Clark Lampin
Good morning. Thank you. I have two. Peter, I want to come back to U.S. guidance. I know you've mentioned historically that FanDuel has sometimes left some profitable AMP acquisition opportunities on the table. Does the guidance for 24 OPEX now sort of leave you more flexibility to be aggressive if the market gives you, if the market remains, I guess, attractive and you can lean into it? And if so, is that benefit sort of contemplated in 24 guide or would that show up more in 25 OPEX? And then, Paul, on the capital return philosophy, could you just remind us, as we're getting closer to the leverage targets and sort of generating some excess capacity, how robust is the opportunity set for acquiring the max bet like local heroes relative to, I guess, in absence of that, would the priority be, I guess, beginning to return capital to shareholders? Thank you.
speaker
Paul
Morning, Clark. Thank you. I think what you have to look at with our business is we've maintained this posture of acquiring as much business as we can whilst we meet the return criteria. Historically, I have stated several times that we would wish we'd been able to lean in harder and take more business. Typically, that's because we've found that the customers have ended up being more valuable than we'd initially anticipated, possibly through higher retention rates, more parlay penetration, more legs on the parlay, better cross-sell into gaming. So all those things have helped benefit the value of the cohorts we've acquired in the past. You'll have seen from the data we published for our first quarter, we are pleased with the posture that we have in the market and the volumes of customers we're acquiring. I think it's very important that we focus on embedding future growth and value into the business by acquiring as much business as we can. We're not subject to constraints in trying to optimize around a certain EBITDA threshold or anything like that. We're just trying to build as big a most valuable business as we can.
speaker
Paul
And in terms of the capital return philosophy, Clark, so we've talked about our priorities for use of capital. First, of course, being to invest in the business as Peter just talked about, because that does give the best returns, the best paybacks. And then acquiring businesses. And you talked about MaxBet. That's been a great acquisition for us. Very pleased with how that's going. Similarly with CESAL, that's going extremely well. If you think a little further back with Tombola, there's lots of these national champions that we really like. And as long as they are strategic, so the market works and the financial economics work, then we are actively looking for businesses like that. And then beyond that, within the framework that we've talked around for leverage, which is sort of being at two to two and a half times levered, If there's capacity to return cash to shareholders, we absolutely will do that. And as we think about how rapidly the EBITDA will grow in this business over the course of 24 and beyond, there will be capacity to do all those things, invest into the business, to make acquisitions and to return cash to shareholders, but just not being prescriptive as to exactly which year we'll do which in, as you can imagine. Thanks very much, Clark.
speaker
Jordan Bender
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Ryan Signall from Craig Hallam Capital Group. Your line is open.
speaker
Ryan Signall
Hey, good day, guys. I want to start with, I guess, the U.S. So trying to do the math, I guess, on the last two weeks of the quarter from March 17th through the end of the period, I get something north of $200 million in delta relative to kind of the first 11 weeks of the quarter, that growth rate to the uh the down 51 uh for the last two weeks 76 million of it is low hold but i guess curious what else is going on in there um secondly kind of to that i guess you reported on march 26th you selectively disclosed kind of performance through uh the week prior to that the 17th i guess why not include some of this the level set expectations into your first u.s quarter here And then last one is just kind of the mark-to-market on box bet option. What changed in that calculation relative to the end of 2023 for the revision lore?
speaker
Paul
I'm happy to take the easy one, Ryan, which is that, you know, the value of Fangio goes up because the business continues to grow. We've got, you know, more customers. It's a bigger business. So the value of, unfortunately, it was slightly counterintuitive as the value of Fanger grows, we have to take more costs onto the value of the FOX option.
speaker
Paul
And that is likely to be every quarter, but we will call it out so that you can sort of strip it out. Obviously, it's a non-cash charge, but as Peter says, that is required under US GAAP. In terms of your first question around the maths on the US, yes, you've got the losses in March Madness. And then, of course, we've got the investment into the North Carolina launch. which is significant, as I said earlier. We won the state there. We took a very high proportion of the business. So we invested heavily. And I think that's the component of the maths that you're trying to work through there. In terms of why we only reported up to a certain date, that's when we had the numbers four. So we reported to the latest date that we had the reliable trading data to
speaker
Ed Young
So that's the reason. Thanks, Brian.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Cisco HANA. Your line is open.
speaker
Joe
Thank you. Good morning. I realize on the US iCasino, realize you're in the process of kind of bringing all, if not most, of your iCasino tech stack in-house. Just wondering how long that process would take. Is it fair to assume a year or something like that? Trying to get an idea there. And then I apologize if you did state this, but just wondering where your North Carolina handle share was in March. curious.
speaker
Paul
Hi Joe, I'm happy to pick those up. The iGaming tech stack, and this is part of what we talked about at the Capital Markets Day in terms of the three phases of it. It was about fixing things that are broken, reaching parity with the market and getting ahead. We have broadly done the work now to bring the tech stack in-house. You can see from the rest of the group we are the world's largest gaming operators, so being able to bring those capabilities to the U.S. market undoubtedly will help us maintain our leadership position in the market, and that's something that the team are very much focused on. But that sort of tech migration is broadly done. And unfortunately, North Carolina is one of those states where they don't disclose the operators, and so we're not going to share our figures. You might be able to just try and reverse engineer it based on the number of customers we told you you signed up with, but we're not disclosing the numbers. Okay.
speaker
Joe
Could I squeeze one more in? I guess with respect to your AMP growth for iCasino in the first quarter, again, FanDuel, it was 34%. Is it fair to say that I guess the bulk of that AMP growth is really from the direct casino customer?
speaker
Ed Young
Yes.
speaker
Joe
Thanks a lot, Peter.
speaker
Ed Young
Thank you, Joe.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Fishman from Moffitt Nathanson. Your line is open.
speaker
Robert Fishman
Good morning. Two questions for you guys. Can you speak to the competitive dynamics in the U.S. today, and would you expect an elevated level of competition to continue, or do you think that the market is becoming even more irrational despite the new competitive launches over the past couple quarters? And then just separately, with the recent FanDuel free ad-supported channel launch on Roku and others, Can you just speak to or update us on the company's U.S. media strategy and whether this helps offset national marketing spend or how you're approaching the U.S. market from a media side? Thank you.
speaker
Paul
Morning, Robert, and welcome to the call. It's nice to talk to you. The competitive dynamics we're seeing in the U.S., I mean, there's never been a time when it has not been very competitive, so the market remains very competitive, but I think the point that you talk to players being rational is important. We're not seeing people spend ridiculous amounts of money trying to dissuade customers to try a product which isn't very good. I think the market is competitive but much more rational and of course having the best products in the market stands us in a good stead and the returns that we're seeing because of the our parlay penetration and all the other benefits that we have in the business means that we're continuing to acquire customers at very attractive returns. The observation that you made about FanDuel TV, and for those people who are not aware of it, this is essentially our offering. We have two channels that are available on cable, but also OTT and on digital platforms. This allows customers, historically it's been very much focused around racing, so of course the Kentucky Derby was a fantastic opportunity for new customers to get into racing and then they'll see a lot more content available on Fangio TV. But it's an ability for us to stream content and our customers to better watch. And it's something that actually predated Fangio. So TVG and the operation there was something that we've been doing for a long time and had national reach and audience. Rating, interestingly, allows us to go into states often in advance of sports betting because there's a different set of legislative results around horse racing.
speaker
Operator
Great, thank you.
speaker
Ed Young
Thanks, Robert.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Dan Politter from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
speaker
Dan Politter
Hey, good morning, everyone. First question, on gross structural hold, I think it was up around 220 basis points in the first quarter, which is a similar year-over-year pace as the fourth quarter. So just trying to get a better sense of how we should think about this over the course of 2024 and if you can kind of keep that pace of gains. And then for my second question, in terms of the U.S. in the cost buckets, I think your sales and marketing costs were up 16% in the quarter, which is a similar increase as tech and G&A. How should we maybe think about the pacing of these buckets if there's any difference in the growth rates over the course of this year? Thanks.
speaker
Paul
Thanks, Dan. So, yes, pleased with the structural hold, which, as we said, was very similar in Q1 of this year to what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year. And that's largely driven by mix of product. So when we see more parlays, which do have a higher hold rate, and more parlays with more lakes, then we will see a higher hold there. And Q1, Q4 do tend to be higher. So we'll have to see how that progresses through the course of the year, and whether we have the same quarter-on-quarter increases, but certainly we would expect to see Q1 and Q4 be the high-water mark. And in terms of investing through the business and quarter by quarter, again, we invest where we think there is the greatest return to be had from that on a marketing and generosity basis that Q1, Q4 tend to be higher given the way to support that. And in terms of other OPEXs, other elements of OPEX, that will be more consistent through the years. We're building our capabilities to support the the bigger and bigger business that we're generating. Got it. Thanks so much. Thank you, Dan.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Paul Ruddy of Davey. Your line is open.
speaker
Paul Ruddy
Hi. Good morning, both of you. Just two quick questions, if that's okay. Just the first is on the U.S. Just really quickly, the H1-H2 EBITDA split, I think you referenced 3070 before. Does that still stand? And then the second, maybe just to jump out of the US for a second, if that's okay. In Italy, it looks like you're back taking market share. Could you just give some of the dynamics in the Italian market? What drove that pickup in share? And how is the overall health of the Italian market at the moment?
speaker
Paul
So, yes, in terms of half one, half two splits, we had envisaged 30-70. And given the sports results in Q1 and also the successful launch we've had in North Carolina, we think that that will be a bit more back-end weighted now, so more weighted into the second half and into the fourth quarter when we will start to see those returns from North Carolina coming through. So... won't differ massively from that 30, 70, but it will be a bit more second-half weighted. And in terms of Italy, yes, we are pleased to be taking market share there. It's performing well. April's been a good month.
speaker
Paul
Yeah, I mean, I think from my perspective in Italy, as Paul says, we're taking market share. The team's performing very well. A lot of it's driven, as we see in the States and other markets, by getting the core things right. So we've made some significant product improvements We launched the new sports betting app in Q3 2023, which is helping support the business. They've got some really interesting product features in that market, so there's possibly more to feed into the Flutter Edge over time. And I think in terms of how the market is evolving, obviously there's no advertising, and different players are pursuing slightly different approaches to generosity. But I think we've got a very good product. We can drive cross-sell from our lottery operations. It's a great top-of-the-funnel product for us into casino and then into sports, and that's proving very well. As Paul said, we're hitting record levels of market share for online customers in sports and casino. Thank you, Paul. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Simon Davis of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
speaker
Simon Davis
Yeah, morning, guys. A couple from me, please. Can you give us any colour on trading in the month of April and any surprises, either positive or negative? And in particular, are you seeing signs of recycling of all those consumer winnings in the US from late March? And secondly, in the UK, we now have a bit of clarity around affordability guidance. Are you comfortable with the outcome there? Do you see any... positive or negative ramifications from that in terms of your previous guidance for the UK market. Thanks.
speaker
Paul
Thanks, Simon. So in terms of current trading, we're not giving any specifics other than to say we are happy with what we're seeing in April and we remain very confident in our outlook for the year. And without getting into specifics, you would expect there would be some recycling. There always is. So I think that's a rational thing to expect.
speaker
Paul
And within Within the UK, you know, there's no change to the guidance of 25 to 50 million in total with 50% likely in H2 2024. You know, I think we're pleased to see further progress. There's clearly a little bit further to go, but, you know, look, it's good to get a bit more clarity for the market.
speaker
Ben Shelley
Thank you, Simon.
speaker
Operator
Great, thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Shelley from UBF. Your line is open.
speaker
Ben Shelley
Good day, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Two from me, if I may. One on cash in the US. Could you provide some colour on how customer acquisition costs have fared through the quarter in the US, please? Are you still seeing efficiencies here despite the heightened levels of investment, or is it too soon to tell? And my next question is on US taxation. So there's, of course, a lot of talk around potential increases to state taxes in the US. I would love to get your thoughts on the potential for contagion risk across states and how you think the future looks and how you feel you can offset future state tax increases through other means.
speaker
Paul
Hi, Ben. On the customer acquisition costs, we have obviously quite a lot of customers in the quarter. We've been very pleased with our efficiency of those acquisitions. We have not really seen any change in the long-term trends in terms of the number of months of payback, frankly. So the team continues to execute very well, and it's embedding a lot of future value into the business.
speaker
Paul
And in terms of tax, I think what we've seen and what states have seen is that having a healthy gaming environment where the tax is set at the right level means that actually the tax take in the state is optimized. So in Illinois, there are conversations with the state governor going on, but there's no new news on that. So if there is, then we'll come back and update, but nothing more on that for now then. But thank you very much. Thank you, Tim.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from James Rowland-Clark from Barclays. Your line is open.
speaker
James Rowland - Clark
JAMES ROWLAND- Hi there. Two questions, please, from me. The first is on moving the operational headquarters to New York. Would you mind just providing a bit of color on exactly what that means? Does that involve more costs or more costs going into the US? And then a related question to that would be, what would you do with your registered headquarters And then my second question is on US again. So the sort of amps in Q1 grew at 15% year-on-year, and that follows 34% in Q4. It just looks like a bit of a slowdown, and I appreciate the incredibly strong Ohio performance and launch there. Sorry, North Carolina, but you might mention that actually it's Ohio's comp that means that the amp slows down a bit in the first quarter. I'm just interested to know, really any color as to why that has slowed down from the fourth quarter trends. That would be very helpful. Thank you.
speaker
Paul
Morning, James. I think you've probably answered James' second question, but I'll let Paul come in and if there's anything he wants to add to it in a moment. On the operational HQ, there's going to be no significant change from a cost perspective. We're going to have our board meetings there. I'm obviously spending a lot more time there this week. and we'll be having a lot more of the EXCO there in person. But in practical terms, it's not going to change a lot from a cost perspective.
speaker
Paul
And James, yes, I think you sort of did answer your own question. You've got Ohio in the comps for a full quarter, but only three weeks of North Carolina coming in there. So Yeah, we are very pleased with the growth we're continuing to see, both in the new states and in existing states where we are, those pre-2022 states where we're seeing a very strong growth in AMPs still. So, you know, really pleased with the underlying health of business. Thank you, James. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Andrew Tam from Redburn Atlantic. Your line is open.
speaker
Andrew Tam
morning guys just uh touching on the u.s sales and market expenses up 16 year on year can you provide any color on where you're making those investments is a bulk of that largely due with the state launches in vermont and north carolina or is it across existing states as well and just in terms of the run rate is that something we can expect throughout the rest of the year or or can we expect that to dial down in in future quarters thanks yeah good morning look i'm not happy to give you some color on that i mean
speaker
Paul
We are spending money where we can. We've shown very strong growth in our existing states. We continue to acquire a lot of customers in those states. Penetration rates continue to grow, and we'll spend money there whilst we can meet our return criteria. And that's as true for sports as it is for gaming. Clearly, we do put our shoulder behind the wheel when we launch in a new state. It's very important to win in the early days, which we try hard to do. The shape of it, of investment, will not be that dissimilar to what we've seen in the prior year. There's obviously periods of time where you naturally see a greater interest in new sports, the pre-launch of the football season and that type of thing where we'll lean in heavier and that's what ultimately ends up skewing the numbers. But it's all very carefully calculated and all factored into our customer acquisition costs and giving us very good returns and driving a lot of embedded value into the business for the future. Thanks, Andrew.
speaker
Operator
Your next question comes from Joe Thomas from HSBT. Your line is open.
speaker
Joe Thomas
Good morning, Peter. Good morning, Paul. Firstly, I wanted to ask you about India. You're talking about net revenue down 25% there. Can you just Talk through how you're expecting India to pan out now those tax changes have come in. I think you say there's some sequential improvement, but there's also been a benefit of an earlier IPL. So perhaps you can talk about how you're mitigating that and what the long-term prospects are. And then elsewhere, just with respect to the other divisions, with respect to the changes in structural hold that you're making, it looks like there's been some ups in the UK and Australia and downs in international perhaps. Perhaps you can just explain that, if I've got it right even, and how that's impacting the recycling that you're seeing. Thanks a lot.
speaker
Paul
Morning, Joe. The important factor to remember in India is that we saw a shift in the tax from GGR to deposits. And We mentioned, I think, last time we talked about this, that we anticipated that we would get the business back to a positive growth towards the end of the year, and I think we're still stunned by that. So the material impact here is the impact on the change in tax rates in India. I mean, on an underlying basis, the business is performing very well, and we're very pleased with the changes we've made to our rate-to-deposit ratio. So I think India's performing well. Of course, we are benefiting somewhat from the earlier IPL, but I think the business is standing in good stead. Paul, I don't know whether you want to talk about what we're seeing from a structural hold perspective.
speaker
Paul
Yes. Thanks, Peter. So in terms of the structural hold, we're seeing the benefits of more parlays and also BetBuilder in the UK and I in particular, and greater efficiency in our promotional spend. So that is all continuing to drive up margins. Of course, we try and keep that at the right level. Don't want that to go too high, but we're happy where it is for now. Thank you, Joe. Thanks.
speaker
Operator
There are no further questions at this time, so I'd like to hand back to our presenters.
speaker
Paul
Okay, well, I think we've rattled through lots of questions from you all this morning. Thank you very much for taking the time. For those of you who are in the US, thank you for getting up so early to accommodate us. We appreciate it, and if there's anyone who wants to follow up with us, we're all here for you. Thank you. Thanks, everyone.
Disclaimer

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