Flutter Entertainment plc

Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call

8/14/2024

speaker
Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to the Flutter Q2 results call hosted by CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake. There will be a chance to ask questions later, but I will now hand the call over to Paul Thames, Group Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
speaker
Flutter
Hi, everyone, and welcome to Flutter's Q2 results call. We meet this afternoon in New York our Flutter CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake. To this short intro, Peter will open up with a brief summary of our operational progress during the quarter, and then Rob will run through the Q2 financials that have updated 2024 guidance. He will then open up the lines for Q&A. Some of the information we are providing today, including our 2024 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are detailed in our earnings press release and our SEC filings. In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law. Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation are included in the results materials we have released today available in the Investors section of our website. And I will now hand you over to Peter.
speaker
Peter
Thank you, Paul. I am delighted to be joining you today from New York, the home of our new operational headquarters following our primary listing move back in May. With me is Rob Coldrick, plus a CFO. This is obviously Rob's first call since he started as CFO on May 31st. It has certainly hit the ground running given his experience within the group, and I know he is looking forward to meeting you all in due course. It is also appropriate to acknowledge that in recent weeks, one of the group's founders, David Power, passed away. It was a long-standing support for this business and a great standing board for me and generations of Flutter leaders. May he rest in peace. I will now turn to the performance of the business in Q2. It was a very strong quarter for the group and ahead of market expectations. We delivered an growth of 17% and revenue growth of 20%, reflecting excellent execution against our strategic priorities and positive sports results. We have outperformed in our major markets, US sports and iGaming, the UK, Ireland and Italy, providing great momentum for the second half of the year. In the US, Fangio had an exceptional quarter with nearly 40% share of the entire US sports betting and iGaming market. Our market-leading products, underpinned by the Flutter edge, continued disciplined customer acquisition investments are driving our performance in the market. The improvements we delivered in our NBA, WNBA and MLB products are increasing pilot penetration, driving up our structural hold and player retention rates, resulting in continuing strong returns on player acquisition investments. In the quarter, both AMPs and new players increased by over 30% for sportsbook and iGaming compared to the prior year. This reflects a strong start in North Carolina, where we had 59% of the market and 20% growth in new players from pre-2022 states. These excellent KPIs point to a long runway of growth in these states and the market more broadly. They also vindicate the consistent posture we have taken since the market launched by investing behind Fangio's excellent return on customer acquisition. In iGaming, we completed an important milestone with the migration of Fangio Casino onto our proprietary technology. In time, this will unlock important benefits through access to in-house content, promotional capabilities and also greater platform stability. This, combined with the launch of more exclusive titles and promotional features in the quarter, are further evidence of the fantastic roadmap of improvements we still have for our iGaming players. Outside of the US, the groups Scale and Diversification contribute to AMP and revenue growth of 15% and 10% respectively. The Euros was the marquee event of the quarter, with our UKI and Italian businesses delivering same-game parlay product improvements for players in advance of the tournament. CSO is the first operator to offer same-game parlay in Italy, proof of the benefits of Flutter's Edge when it comes to delivering compelling product advantages for our brands in their local markets. CSO's same-game parlay accounted for nearly 20% of stakes on the Euros and helped deliver a record market share performance for CSO in the quarter. This encapsulates the strong performance in CSO since acquisition, where on a pro-former basis over the last two years, AMP's have increased by 60% and revenue by 37%. In the UKI, all our brands are delivering excellent growth, combining for a 10th straight quarter of market share gains based on gambling commission data. In iGaming, we leveraged the Palli Power brand in launching Palli's Mansion Heist, our most successful live casino game launch ever. In Australia, the previously noted and anticipated declines in the racing market were evident in the quarter. However, we saw strong customer engagement around marquee rugby events, where player acquisition doubled year on year. Overall, the group had a very strong quarter, strengthening our leadership position in the And with that, I hand you over to Rob.
speaker
Rob
Thanks Peter. Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for joining the call. It's a really exciting time to be stepping into the CFO role and I'm delighted with the current momentum in the business. The group delivered a really strong performance in the quarter, with revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 17% to $738 million. The group had netting income of $297 million on a reported basis, which is after non-cash expenses, including the amortization of acquired intangibles of $147 million and a $91 million gain on the fair value of the Fox option. Polluted earnings per share increased 290%, while adjusted earnings per share increased 56% due to the strong financial performance and the positive movement in the Fox option. Free cash flow was $171 million versus a cash outflow of $95 million in the prior year. Our strong deleveraging profile saw our leverage ratio reduced to 2.6 times from 3.1 times at the end of December 2023. We are almost within our medium term leverage target range, 2 to 2.5 times. We look forward to updating you on our capital allocation framework and the range of capital allocation opportunities we have at our Invest Today on September 25th. Starting now to each of the segments. In the US, the exceptional quarter noted by Peter translated to excellent financial returns, with revenue growth of 39% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 51%. Pleasingly, the strong growth is across all state cohort types, with pre-2022 state launch revenue up 33% year over year, including pre-2020 launches 27% higher. Sportsbook revenue grew 41% from stakes growth of 35% and a fair expansion of our structural Sportsbook net revenue margin. Our gaming revenue was 47% higher, reflecting the gains we are making in the direct casino segment of the market from the product improvements the team has delivered over the last two years. This revenue performance combined with operating leverage and sales and marketing helped deliver adjusted EBITDA of $260 million, well ahead of market expectations. Outside of the US, revenue increased 10% due to strong performances in UK and I, and international. In UK and I, the combination of continued eye-gaming momentum, the European football championships and positive sports results drove revenue and adjusted EBITDA 18% higher. Sports results were very favourable in the quarter, adding 190 basis points to our Sportsbook net revenue margin. Positive results were most notable during the Euros which continued into July. The previously noted softer Australian racing market resulted in associated -on-year declines in that market, with revenue down 10%. In international, the addition of max debt and 12% constant currency revenue growth in our other consolidate and invest markets, drove revenue 16% higher on a constant currency basis. Starting now to our updated guidance for 2024. In the US, we have increased our midpoint revenue guidance to $6.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $740 million. This equates to -over-year growth of 41% for revenue and 219% for adjusted EBITDA. This reflects the strong momentum we have in the business, including the excellent performance in Q2, including the sports results benefit, and is after the $40 million net impact of the tax changes introduced in July. The gross tax impact in Illinois is $50 million in 2024, and we expect to mitigate 50% of the tax from 2025 onwards. That is prior to any additional second-order benefits such as market share gains from subscale players, which we have typically seen where regulatory or tax changes have been implemented in our other markets. On a quarterly basis in the US, we expect a small EBITDA loss in Q3 and significant earnings to be generated in Q4. In the Group X US, we now expect both increased revenue of $8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.77 billion at the midpoint of our guidance. This equates to -over-year growth of 8% for both metrics. As always, our guidance is provided on the basis that sports results are in line with our expectations for the remainder of the year, current foreign exchange rates, no new state openings for the remainder of the year, and in a consistent regulatory and tax environment. This guidance demonstrates the strong momentum we have across the Group. With that, Peter and I are happy to take your questions. In the interest of time, can we ask that, as usual, we limit to two questions per person? With that, I'll hand you back to Jeremy to manage the call.
speaker
Operator
All right, thank you so much. To ask a question today, please press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. All right, our first question comes from Clark Lampen from BTIG. Please go ahead.
speaker
Clark Lampen
Thanks. Good evening, guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. Peter, I wanted to see if we could open up by talking about US performance. Two key results were nicely ahead. Full-year guidance was raised in Ettaville, Illinois. I think Rob said pre-22 state growth was up 33%. Could you give us a little bit more color around, I guess, just what's sort of driving, you know, sort of strong results right now and what also is embedded for back-half guidance? Second question I have is related to the 40 million net headwind that you guys called out from Illinois. As we think about managing potential additional increases in taxes going forward, what are the key levers that you guys have at your disposal to mitigate those headwinds and is a potential tax surcharge on player winnings maybe part of that calculus? Thanks very much.
speaker
Peter
Thank you for the questions, Clark. It's nice to be talking to you in your time zone for once. And long may this continue. Let me give you some thoughts around the US performance. And then I think I'll probably ask Rob to give us the major building blocks. As I said in my opening remark, I'm really pleased to see the strong performance in Q2. I think it's a really good vindication of the posture that we've adopted in the market of acquiring as much business as we can whilst ever we meet our return criteria. And to remind you that's just to make sure that we can see less than a two-year payback. And I think we pushed hard in the first half and you can definitely see the benefits of that come through in the player numbers, the increase in acquisition that we saw in Q2. I think it's done this really good stead as we go into the back half of the year. But maybe you want to talk about the building blocks. Yeah,
speaker
Rob
I think first of all, Clark, I'm delighted to be talking about an upgrade to the four-year guidance for revenue and the Iudora, my first earnings call. As Peter said, you know, a terrific performance in Q2. And that's partly driven by the positive sports results. What we see as a result of that is extremely strong drop through in Q2. And I think we're looking forward to the second half. The second half of the year still accounts for 40% of the revenue upgrade, but that won't directly drop through to Iudora for a couple of reasons. Firstly, we're choosing to invest a further 20 million behind customer acquisition given those returns that we continue to see well within our kind of 24-month paybacks that we've previously stated. That momentum should set us up really well for 2025 as we take a larger business into next year. In addition, we've got an additional 20 million dollars of operating costs. And that's partly due to the higher payment costs, which have been driven by the changing player behavior and more frequent deposits and withdrawals and partly due to some additional costs associated with the beyond play acquisition. If you then factor in the net Illinois impact of 40 million, you get the full year guidance. So essentially the full year upgrade, excluding Illinois, drops through at 35% or 15% ex-Illinois.
speaker
Peter
So we're
speaker
Rob
absolutely utilizing
speaker
Peter
this. Thank you, Rob. And I suspect, you know, Clark, you've got a question around the situation in Illinois. And I can imagine that a number of other people will have questions around how we're thinking about positioning ourselves in it. So I think it probably makes sense to me just to give a slightly more expansive answer to that question. And then I don't anticipate us needing to answer the question subsequently for other people. To start with, I think it's important to recognize that there's a happy medium for tax rates that enables operators to maximize market growth, provides the best experience for customers and over time maximizes revenue for states. And most states have taken a sensible approach to date. I do think, though, that instituting a grantorated tax system that punishes those who've invested the most to grow their businesses is wrong. I think it will drive customers to offshore operators or potentially to onshore operators who are operating unregulated and untaxed prop parlays under the guise of sweepstakes. We have lots of pattern recognition of operating internationally in high tax locations. And our experience is that moderating levels of generosity or indeed reducing local marketing is the best response. As Rob mentioned, we often find as well that smaller players may also have to increase their prices, which leads to us capturing more share, which provides an offset for us. And so we think that the moderating levels of generosity and reducing local marketing is the best customer option. And we have no plans to introduce a surcharge for
speaker
Rob
winners. Thanks very much.
speaker
Operator
Our next question comes from Jordan Binder from Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.
speaker
Jordan Binder
Good afternoon, everyone. Maybe just to follow on the CPA questions. In 2Q here, that's been a big theme or topic across most players in the space. So are you seeing acquisitions costs fall kind of equally across iGaming and sports betting? And can you maybe point to why is this happening maybe year to date? And then the second question off of that, the updated US guidance implies an increase in OpEx for the full year, even after kind of accounting for the Illinois impact. Are the declining CPAs kind of that core reason why you're stepping up investment here or is there anything else you're seeing into the market or into football season here that kind of allows you to invest more? Thank you.
speaker
Peter
Thanks, Jordan. On a CPA basis, if I look at Q2 this year and Q2 last year, we actually would see that our costs have come down a little bit, even with the significant increase in customers that we, customer numbers that we've acquired. It's often difficult to try and look very precisely at it because you do get an impact of new state launches, which can often dilute the CPA cost because of our large DFS, customer base that we can cross sell into and other mechanisms that we have that give us advantages. So I think what's important is that we're maintaining the consistent posture that we've had in the market to acquire as much business as we can whilst we meet our return criteria. We're very confident in offering the best prices to customers in the market and the best products in the market that we will maintain high levels of customer lifetime value and together with the significant benefits of getting customer acquisition, it gives us real confidence to continue to acquire as much business as we can.
speaker
Jordan
I think in relation to... Great, thanks Peter. The second
speaker
Rob
part of your
speaker
Jordan
question,
speaker
Rob
George. So as Peter said, A, we're investing behind what we're seeing as some very strong paybacks. I think from an operating cost perspective, we've got the beyond play cost that I mentioned in the second half of the year. We're also seeing some slightly higher payment costs. We're very comfortable with the position that we've got for the second half of the year. As I mentioned also earlier, we've got some very good momentum coming into the second half of the year from a revenue perspective. One of the other things that will be very focused on for the second half of the year moving forward is actually driving more operating leverage. All the costs are coming into focus. We're really looking to be as efficient and optimal as we can from a cost based perspective. But we do have a couple of additional costs. I think in addition, you've got the cost that we previously outlined in terms of investing behind the FlutterEdge capabilities and also some regulatory compliance costs in conjunction with our US listing. But we previously signposted both of those and they're in line with our expectations.
speaker
Jordan Binder
Awesome.
speaker
Operator
Thank you both. Our next question comes from Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Good evening.
speaker
Ed Young
My first question is on the cohort growth that you talked through Rob on slide six. It presents as very bullish to see obviously strong growth across all these different cohorts. I perhaps wonder if broad brush you could give some color on the relative mix of growth and revenue per amp growth you're seeing across those different cohorts just to give us some understanding over what's driving some of that across the different areas. And then second of all, perhaps a novelty of a non US question in UK and I obviously the euros was known to be a good event, but you've got to have much stronger. I came in growth and sports but in growth, I just wonder if you could give a bit more more color on what's driven that and how you've seen the tournament progress from where you were pre tournament.
speaker
Peter
Thanks. Hi, Ed. Good evening. Let me give you just a few thoughts about the cohort growth. And I think this is probably where you're coming from. But we continue to see an increase in increases and things like our parlay penetration in our historical cohorts. I think that's been something which has been very beneficial to us. If I think about that together with the step ups we've seen in our structural margin position has really helped drive the historical cohort performance. You know, I think it's it's as true and you can see that in all of the different timeframes that we that we lay out. Well, but there was any you want to say about. Yeah, I think specifically,
speaker
Rob
I think, you know, we're very confident in the major cohorts and the growth that are driving. So pre 2022 state acquisition revenue was up 16 percent and 20 percent in 2022 and 2023 cohort state revenues up to 45 percent. So, you know, we've got some incredible growth coming through there with regards to the UK performance and the euro specifically. I mean, we're absolutely delighted. The fact that Harry Kane didn't have his shooting boots on helped us with that. Mostly exited Q2 with some great momentum and that continued into the third quarter with the first half of the month with the euros. In addition to that, I think what's what's almost more encouraging for the UK is the gaming performance. So we're seeing some excellent gaming momentum this year and actually all four brands in the UK are posting gaming growth of 20 percent plus year on year, which we're particularly happy with. So, you know, you gave in very good shape at the moment as we move into age two.
speaker
Flutter
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Our next question comes from Ryan from Craig, I'm capital group. Please go ahead.
speaker
Ryan
Hey, good afternoon, guys. I want to start. There's been a couple of rumors. You might sign an agreement with Diamond Sports Group during naming rights for regional sports networks separately, potentially looking at Penn Interactive ESPN. I think that no need to comment specifically on those rumors or directly, but curious how you think about media tie in and what you've learned from other markets. And then secondly, second question, Caesar is sold their intellectual property for a world series of poker to GG Poker, your main global competitor. They're just curious how you think that may impact the competitive dynamics and in your strategy around poker. Thanks. Thank you.
speaker
Peter
I think we've we've we've always been able to benefit from our strong media tie ins here in the US. Yeah, scale is definitely our friend. And we I think if I look at historically the way in which we've been able to showcase our products and pricing with good integrations, I think it's always been important for us. And I think it's part of what helps with our strong customer acquisition performance. I think it's, of course, really important. You've got quality product. You can back it up with. There's no point in people testing and trying to get products and finding that they don't like it. We're fortunate we have the best product in the market. Yeah, I think from a Caesar's perspective, you're right. They have done this deal with I think with GG Poker, the global competitor to our poker business, albeit one which operates in a lot of markets that we wouldn't be prepared to operate in. I think there's some interesting questions there for some of those people involved. I think the poker business provides us with an important opportunity in the US market. I think the extent to which we can get shared liquidity across states can give us some advantages. There is a when you look at it around the world, poker is breaking down into smaller segments from a liquidity perspective. And I think we're reasonably in a reasonably strong position in some of those regulated markets because of the strength of the local hero brands that we have. Yeah, I think just
speaker
Rob
to
speaker
Peter
add to Peter's
speaker
Rob
point, from a poker perspective, we talked about at Q1 the fact that we've started to embark on a transformation for poker staff. That's progressing really well. Very pleased with the progress. And actually by later this year, we'll see our poker platform rolled out into Italy, which I think demonstrates our agility and how quickly we can move there. Also from a performance perspective, a poker staff is doing very well in the US. We're seeing some real green shoots and very optimistic about how big that business can become there. I think secondly, when you look at the poker staff business in the rest of the world, we continue to see the positive impacts of some pricing initiatives that we've put in play. We've made some changes to the loyalty, which has resulted in cost savings. And we also have a number of offset savings across our casino products. So we're really happy with the way that we're trending on poker overall. Great. Thanks, guys.
speaker
Operator
All right. Our next question comes from James Rowland Clark from Barclays. Please go ahead.
speaker
James Rowland Clark
Hi. Good evening. Thanks for taking questions. My first question is on Australia. You said there's no change to online trends and the upgraded EBITDA guide is sports results driven. Can you just give us some color on what you're focused on, particularly there that provides some confidence that the trends have bottomed out, as you previously mentioned? And then secondly, it's a slightly nitty-gritty question on the interest charge, which has guided up from 370 million to 405 due to a delay in previously expected interest income benefits. Is this raising the interest charge now for years or is this just a timing thing? Thank you.