F.N.B. Corporation

Hello, and welcome to the FMB Corporation's second quarter 2020 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one in your touchtone phone. To throw your question, please press star then two. Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Lazaro, Manager of Investor Relations. Mr. Lazaro, please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call. This conference call of F&B Corporation and the reports it files with the Securities and Exchange Commission often contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an alternative for, a report of results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP operating measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our presentation materials and our earnings release. Please refer to these non-GAAP and forward-looking statement disclosures contained in our earnings release, related presentation materials, and in our reports and registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on our corporate website. A replay of this call will be available until July 24th, and the webcast link will be posted to the About Us Investor Relations section of our corporate website. I will now turn the call over to Vince DeLee, Chairman, President, and CEO.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call. Joining me today are Vince Calabrese, Chief Financial Officer, and Gary Guerrero, Chief Credit Officer. On today's call, I will provide an overview of second quarter results and update you on FMB's participation in the Paycheck Protection Program. Gary will discuss asset quality and provide further detail on our loan portfolios. This will address our financial results and cover relevant trends. I will then provide an update on our digital platforms and physical operations and finally discuss our organization's $250 million commitment and continuing initiative to address economic and social inequity in our community. As a company and on a personal level, we've endured significant challenges and change this year. Our thoughts are with those who have been impacted by the pandemic and unrest in our community. I am proud of how our company has rallied in support of our customers and neighborhoods where we operate. We resolve to work together to emerge even stronger and united in our demand for a more successful future for all of our constituents. FMV's second quarter results increased significantly Operating earnings per share increased 63% to $0.26, which included an additional $17 million, or $0.04 per share, of COVID-19 reserve bills in the quarter, and PPNR increased to $130 million. Poor revenue trends remained solid throughout a challenging interest rate environment, with total revenues increasing 6% annualized to $306 million. and total assets growing nearly $3 billion to end June at $38 billion. Compared to the first quarter, loans and deposits increased $2.3 billion and $3.6 billion, or 10% and 15% respectively. On a linked quarter basis, double-digit second quarter loan and deposit growth were supported by organic commercial production and originating nearly 20,000 PPP loans, totaling $2.6 billion. Our fee-based businesses performed exceptionally well, with capital markets and mortgage banking establishing revenue records of 13 and 17 million, respectively. Our efficiency ratio was 53.7%, and operating expenses were well-controlled, down 3% from the first quarter. Even though there has been disruption across our footprint due to COVID-19, We've still seen good commercial loan origination activity across most of the footprint. This is a testament to our teams who continue to serve our clients and meet their borrowing needs while dealing with a challenging operating environment. The strength in our balance sheet and ample liquidity enables FMV to support our clients' capital needs. We continue to apply our consistent underwriting standard aligned with our strategy and overall risk profile as we evaluate business opportunities in the current climate. On a link quarter basis, total average loans increased 9%, largely driven by growth in commercial loans of 14%. Commercial line balances, when compared to historical level, contracted as we saw much lower line utilization of 36%. The utilization rate decreased as PPP funds were utilized to support working capital needs by many existing clients, and economic activity declined during the period. Commercial loan balances were also impacted by large corporate borrowers paying down bank credit facilities with increased liquidity in the bond market. Average deposits increased 11% as we had solid organic growth in customer relationships. A large inflow of deposits for PPP funding and government stimulus activities also occurred. As part of our business strategy, we have been focused on reducing the level of wholesale borrowings by continuing to gain depositors and expand existing relationships. As a result, we were able to fully eliminate our overnight borrowing position, replacing it with customer deposits. Non-interest-bearing deposits were up $2.1 billion or 33% from prior quarter ends. Looking at June 30 spot balances, our loan-to-deposit ratio was 92%, including the funded PPP loans, which positions us more favorably in the current rate environment. Growing non-interest-bearing deposits has been an integral part of our long-term strategy, and we've consistently been able to grow organically through various interest rate environments. further strengthening our overall funding mix. In fact, transaction deposits have increased 4 billion, or 20%, from March 31, and now represent 85% of total deposits, which compares very favorably to 79% five years ago. With the Fed taking near-term rate increases off the table, there is opportunity to offset net interest income headwinds by continuing to reduce deposit costs. As we have stated previously, continuing to grow our fee-based businesses is essential to diversifying our revenue sources and to mitigate pressure on net interest income in an extended low-rate environment. With interest rate expectations now reflecting lower for longer, it is important we continue to build on our recent success in capital markets, mortgage banking, wealth management, and insurance. This quarter's record mortgage banking income of $17 million better reflects the fundamentals and the results without MSR impairment, as the mortgage banking business set a new production record for the quarter of $869 million. Turning to our participation in the Paycheck Protection Program, I would first like to recognize our teams for their support of our customers and communities throughout these extraordinary circumstances. Our employees have worked tirelessly to ensure businesses receive critical funding during a time when regions within our footprint experienced extended shutdowns, particularly in our metro markets in Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic, and when many borrowers turned from larger banks to FMV to accommodate their needs. As part of the PPP origination process, each borrower opened an FMV account, which supports our efforts to bring in new households. Looking ahead, we are optimistic that borrowers will be able to deploy these funds as businesses around the footprint reopen. As an organization, we leveraged our technology infrastructure and expertise already in place to quickly adapt and accommodate our customers in a challenging remote environment. Coupled with significant financial aid and employee volunteerism in our communities, our efforts have helped tens of thousands of small businesses during the pandemic and supported the retention of hundreds of thousands of jobs. From the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, F&B has upheld consistent volumes of total transactions, deposit transactions, by providing customers with a seamless transition from physical to online and mobile engagement. This was made possible from the significant investment we've committed to our digital and online platforms over the last decade. In fact, the appointment setting feature on our new website that went live in January enabled FMV to continue serving clients safely in our branches throughout the crisis. We grew from 26 monthly appointments in January to 2,700 appointments in April. The rapid shift to remote services accelerated the enhancements to our digital strategy that were already underway and minimized disruption for our customers. As the operating environment remains in a constant state of change, we will continue our innovative approach to better serve our customers. I will now share some updates regarding our operations and delivery teams. Together with the uptick in online appointment setting, our website increased traffic by millions of daily visitors. As we are deepening relationships with customers throughout our digital capabilities, we are also generating significant opportunities. By synchronizing the physical and digital customer experience, we can take customers who utilize a single product and broaden the relationship to include products such as savings, credit card, private banking, mortgage, wealth management, and insurance. At the end of the day, it provides tremendous value to the customer to have multiple product relationships within FMB on a single platform connected through digital capabilities. Overall, the acceleration of digital and remote banking volume demonstrates our versatile and integrated multi-channel strategy. Customers have been more active in FMB's mobile and online channels, with monthly average users up by 50,000 in both categories compared to the average for 2019. While our customer adoption rates for online and mobile have accelerated, our customers have still expressed a strong desire to conduct business within our branches. As an essential business, it is important for FMV to remain available and accessible. Our business continuity team in collaboration with other units, including data science, human resources, and retail banking, developed a monitoring system in which we can evaluate data related to the healthcare crisis on a locational basis On July 13, 2020, we reopened the majority of our branch lobbies to customers, adhering to the most stringent safety measures, including social distancing and cleaning protocols, as we begin to move forward to the next phase of operation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary to cover asset quality.

Thank you, Vince, and good morning, everyone. During the second quarter, our credit portfolio continued to perform in a satisfactory manner as the COVID-19 global pandemic continues to evolve. Our credit metrics have held ground in this challenging economic environment, which I will cover with you in greater detail on both a GAAP as well as a non-GAAP basis, exclusive of our loan volume funded under the PPP program. I will also provide some updates on the status of our loan deferrals, and the steps we are taking to manage our book, particularly those borrowers tied to COVID-sensitive industries. Let's now review the quarterly results. The level of delinquency ended the second quarter at 92 basis points on a gap basis, down 21 bps over the prior quarter, as early-stage delinquencies returned to more normalized levels. When excluding PPP loan volume, the level of delinquency would have ended the quarter at 1.02%, down 11 bps from the prior quarter. The level of NPLs in Oreo totaled 72 basis points at June, an 8 basis point increase linked quarter, while the non-GAAP level was 80 bps, excluding PPP. The migration was due primarily to a few previously rated credits, that were further impacted by the current COVID environment that we proactively moved to non-accrual during the quarter. Of our total NPLs at June, 48% of these borrowers continue to pay as agreed and are current. Net charge-offs remained at a good level at $8.5 million for the quarter, or 13 basis points annualized, resulting in a year-to-date level of 12 basis points. Provision expense totaled $30 million in the quarter, which includes additional build for macroeconomic conditions tied to COVID-19. Inclusive of the Q1 economic-driven build, our COVID-related provision for the first half of the year totaled $55 million. Our ending reserve stands at 1.4%, and excluding PPP volume, The non-GAAP ending ACL totals 1.54%, representing a 10 basis point increase over the prior quarter, resulting in NPL coverage of 215%. When including the acquired unamortized loan discounts, our coverage excluding PPP volume is 1.87%. Under the preliminary severely adverse DFAS scenario, the current reserve position, inclusive of unamortized loan discounts, would cover 78% of stressed losses. As the pandemic continues to pressure the global economy, our approach to managing the book in this COVID environment remains in line with what I communicated on last quarter's call. We continue to conduct thorough borrower-level reviews within our commercial book to track key performance indicators for those that operate in economically sensitive industries or that have otherwise been impacted by the pandemic. These ongoing targeted portfolio reviews allow our credit teams to quickly identify and proactively address emerging risks at the borrower, industry, or overall portfolio levels. Additionally, we continue to conduct a series of scenario analysis and stress test models under our existing allowance and DFAS frameworks as we work through this challenging environment. As it relates to our borrowers requesting payment deferral, 10% of our loan portfolio excluding PPP loans were approved during the initial deferment request window. Of these deferments, 98.4% were current and in good standing prior to the pandemic. Of the remaining 39 million, 12 million is already on non-accrual. Our requests for initial deferrals are essentially non-existent, and we have only seen a small amount of second requests for payment deferral at this time. That said, we are carefully monitoring our credit portfolio and remain vigilant to identify borrowers that could face further pressure during uncertain economic conditions. This approach allows us to quickly identify and manage risk in the portfolio while still meeting the credit needs of our customers. The composition of the portfolio remains diverse and well-balanced across several product lines, geographies, and industries. As shown on slide 10, our exposure to highly sensitive industries remains low at 3.8% of the total portfolio, which includes all borrowers operating in the travel and leisure, food services, and energy space. And the level of payment deferrals granted to these borrowers remains at 38%. Additionally, we have been tracking our retail secured IRE portfolio closely to assess the emerging challenges on this asset class, as well as the nature of the tenants' operations and insulation from certain economic strain as essential businesses. Our weighted average LTV position in this book remains strong at 65%. In summary, we continue to manage our credit portfolio through this difficult economic environment by drawing on our strong credit fundamentals and our risk management strategies, which we continue to enhance as the COVID situation plays out. Considering these challenges, our portfolio is in a satisfactory position entering the second half of the year. Realizing the uncertainty of the economic environment as we look ahead, we continue to draw on the strength of our experienced banking teams to manage through this environment as we move into the latter half of the year. I would like to recognize our teams for their tireless efforts as we continue to work through this challenging environment. I will now turn the call over to Vince Calabrese, our Chief Financial Officer, for his remarks.

Thanks, Gary, and good morning. Today I'll review the second quarter results and trends in our operating environment, and then discuss our capital management approach and current position. I'll note that our tangible common equity levels enter the year with the strongest position we've had in nearly two decades, and we are comfortable with our current capital position. Looking at slide 5, GAAP EPS for the second quarter is $0.25, including $0.05 related to significant or outsized items. These included $17.1 million of COVID-19 reserve bills and $2 million of COVID-19-related expenses. The TCE ratio ended June at 697, reflecting these items as well as a 52 basis point temporary impact for the 2.5 billion in net PPP loan balances at June 30th. Without the PPP balances, the TCE ratio would have been 749. Additionally, our CET1 estimate ended the quarter at 9.4%. Compared to 9.1 at March 31st, and 9.4 at the end of 2019, as PPP loans carry a 0% risk weighting for risk-based capital purposes. Pre-tax pre-provision earnings increased to $130 million, providing more than adequate earnings power as we declared our third quarter dividend of $0.12 earlier this week. With a dividend payout ratio of 48% in the second quarter, we are well below historical levels of previous payout ratios. I'll touch on our capital management approach in more detail later in my comments. Turning to the balance sheet on slide 14, a key theme is the impact of $2.5 billion in net PPP loans. It comprises 9.5% of total loans and leases at June 30th. PPP was the primary driver in the linked quarter average increase of $2.1 billion, or 9%, as well as strong organic activity across most of the commercial and Our commercial line utilization ended June at 36%, below historical levels, and down from the mid-40s spot utilization rate at the end of the first quarter. We clearly saw some customer borrowing activity shift over to the PPP, and our large corporate borrowers accessed the capital markets to reduce their bank debt. Average consumer loans were essentially flat, with direct installment loans increased 65 million, or 14% annualized, and residential mortgage increased 6% annualized, two bright spots to continue to perform well. The increases in direct installment and mortgage loans were offset by continued declines in indirect auto loans and consumer lines, two loan classes heavily affected by the pandemic. Continuing down slide 14, average deposits increased to $2.7 billion, or 11%, on a linked quarter basis. led by $2.9 billion, or 15%, in transaction deposit growth. Transaction deposits equal 85% of total deposits. As our managed decline in CDs continued, transaction deposit balances benefited from stimulus programs and PPP customer-driven inflows. Non-interest-bearing, interest-bearing demand and savings account balances each increased significantly, up $1.8 billion, 854 million, and 226 million, respectively. Now focusing on the income statement on slide 15. Compared to the first quarter, net interest income totaled 228 million, a decrease of 4.7 million, or 2%, as loan and deposit growth mostly offset the impact from lower rates. The net interest margin narrowed 26 basis points to 288, primarily driven by a full quarter impact of the March action to lower the target Fed funds range to 0 to 25 basis points. Additionally, average one-month LIBOR fell to 36 basis points from 141 in the prior quarter. Total yields on average earning assets declined 58 basis points to 354, reflecting lower yields on variable and adjustable rate loans due to the lower interest rate environment and the impact of the PPP balances. Total cost of funds decreased to 67 basis points from 101, as costs on interest-bearing deposits were reduced 37 basis points. Slides 16 and 17 provide details for non-interest income and expense compared to the first quarter. Non-interest income totaled $77.6 million, increasing $9.1 million, or 13.3%, as mortgage banking operations increased $17.6 million on a reported basis or $10.2 million excluding MSR impairments of $300,000 and $7.7 million respectively. Mortgage production established a new quarterly record at $869 million, increasing $306 million or 55% from the prior quarter with large contributions from North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic region. Capital markets also set a new record of $12.5 million increasing $1.4 million or 12.6% with strong contributions from interest rate derivative activity across the footprint. As expected, service charges decreased $6.2 million to 20.5% due to noticeably lower transaction volumes in the COVID-19 environment. Turning to slide 17, non-interest expense totaled $175.9 million, increase of $19 million or 9.7%, including $2 million of expenses associated with COVID-19 in the second quarter of 2020, and $15.9 million of outsized, unusual, or significant expenses occurring in the first quarter. On an operating basis, expenses declined $5.1 million or 2.9% compared to the first quarter of 2020, as we have realized lower variable expenses such as travel and business development, and increased FAS91 benefits given the amount of loans originated in the second quarter. Additionally, we recognized an impairment of $4.1 million from a second quarter renewable energy investment tax credit transaction. The related tax credits were recognized during the quarter as a benefit to income taxes. The efficiency ratio improved significantly, 53.7% compared to 59%. Starting the recent trends on slide 18, we continue to observe daily changes in external factors, including multiple aspects of potential economic recovery, changes in government programs, and regulation changes over current programs. Saying that, we are providing our current directional outlook for the third quarter based on what we know today, which is subject to change, as we all know. We expect period end loans to increase low single digits from June 30th, assuming no forgiveness of PPP loans given the SBA's current expected time for processing forgiveness applications. While we expect deposits to decline from second quarter 20 levels based on an expectation that customers increase their deployment of funds received through the government programs, we do expect to see continued organic growth in transaction deposits. We expect third quarter net interest income to reflect the full impact of lower one-month LIBOR rates on variable rate loans, partially offset by a full quarter benefit of higher commercial loan balances and continued reductions in the cost of interest-bearing deposits. We expect positive trends in capital markets and mortgage banking, although lower than the record levels this quarter. We expect service charges to increase if recent transaction volume trends continue. We expect expenses to be stable to up slightly from the second quarter. Lastly, we expect the effective tax rate to be around 17% for the full year 2020. For the remainder of my comments, I would like to discuss our risk-based capital position and overall management philosophy given the current environment, beginning on slide 20. We continue to be very comfortable with our capital ratios as they stand today with the benefit of entering this crisis from a position of strength. As demonstrated in the new capital slides we have added to the deck, we have ample internal capital generation and cushions for all of our capital ratios in relation to well-capitalized thresholds. For example, with a total risk-based capital ratio to fall below 11%, total capital would have to drop by $258 million, with 7.9% of total capital of $3.3 billion. Our risk-weighted assets would have to increase by $2.3 billion, which is 8.5% of total risk-weighted assets, $27.5 billion. I would comment also that $258 million is in after-touch dollars. On top of our capital position, we have a conservative bias in how we build reserves, especially given the consistent underwriting philosophy that has been in place for well over a decade. With CET1 of $2.6 billion and an allowance for credit losses of $365 million and a remaining PCD discount of $77 million, we have a substantial base available to absorb credit losses. To put that in context, our reserves plus remaining discount on previously acquired loans would cover 62 quarters of net charge-offs that average $7.1 million per quarter in the first half of 2020. This is before considering the $2.6 billion in CET1. Another way to look at this is relative to severely adverse charge-offs in our last stress test. Again, using $442 million in reserves plus remaining discount, we cover 75% of the $586 million in charge-offs projected under the severely adverse scenario for a nine-quarter period. To put the $586 In context, that compares to $64 million over nine quarters using the first half of 2020 net charge-offs, or 9.2 times the current levels. As far as dividend sustainability, we are governed by the Federal Reserve and the OCC. From a Fed perspective, we currently pay out $39 million in common dividends and $2 million in preferred dividends, for a total of $41 million per quarter. The Fed four-quarter test currently shows an excess of $153 million after paying out the third-quarter dividend just declared. From an OCC perspective, there are significant cushions to support the $46 million the bank is projected to pay up to the holding company. The three-part test shows a cushion of $913 million relative to net undivided profits, $517 million relative to net profits for the current year combined with retained net profits for the prior two years, cushions above well-capitalized levels ranging from 228 basis points to 384 basis points. In addition to looking at our capital position, it's important to consider PPNR generation. Year-to-date PPNR of $236 million more than supports the incremental reserve build through the first six months of the year. We generated ample capital to cover the preferred and common dividends, and our CET1 ratio was consistent with where we ended 2019 at 9.4%. Earlier this week, we announced our third quarter dividend of 12 cents. Given the earnings level through the first half of 2020, you can see there's capacity to continue to return capital to shareholders. Overall, our capital management philosophy is grounded in a conservative and consistent underwriting and credit management philosophy throughout varying economic cycles, supplemented with robust and comprehensive enterprise risk management, including very active credit monitoring processes. With that, I will turn the call back to Vince.

Thanks, Vince. Looking at everything we've managed through over the last few months, the efforts of our team has been nothing short of exceptional. and assisting our clients and communities in which we serve. Recent events highlighting persistent inequities in our country have affirmed our important mandate to support those who are vulnerable and traditionally underserved. As an organization, we continue to place a strong emphasis on being inclusive and demonstrated by our recent $250 million commitment to address economic and social inequity in low and moderate income and predominantly minority communities. As we continue to deploy these investments, our shareholders will benefit as we have continued to prudently manage risk, liquidity, and capital actions to better position our company. During the quarter, F&B originated nearly $500 million in Paycheck Protection Program loans in low- to moderate-income and rural neighborhoods, assisting thousands of small businesses and employees. Our success is a direct result of our bankers' proactive outreach to over 100 organizations and nonprofit entities that work directly with these communities. This is just an example of how committing our resources this way leads to good business results. I encourage everyone to learn more about our ongoing initiatives and commitment to diversity and inclusion through the links contained on the slides within today's presentation. As we look ahead to move into the next phase of COVID-19 recovery, We will continue to focus our response on four key pillars to meet the needs of each of our constituents. The pillars are employee protection and assistance, operational response and preparedness, customer and community support, and risk management and actions taken to preserve shareholder value given the extreme challenges presented. Through these unprecedented conditions, our employees have consistently delivered a superior experience for our customers. In June, F&B was ranked among the best banks in Ohio and North Carolina by Forbes and Advisory HQ, respectively, a testament to the consistency of our customer-centric culture across our footprint. The company was again named a top workplace in northeastern Ohio for the sixth consecutive year by the Cleveland Plain Dealers. This recognition, which is based solely on employee feedback, joins a list of nearly 30 such awards received over the past decade. All of this has been made possible by our dedicated employees. In closing, I would again like to thank my fellow team members, as they have demonstrated throughout this time exactly why they continue to be our most valuable asset. Our dedication to cultivating a superior culture directly translates into a better customer experience, greater financial performance, and higher returns for our shareholders. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator to open the call for questions.

Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To try your question, please press star, then 2. This time we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. And the first question comes from Casey Hare with Jeffries.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I'll start with a housekeeping question. I've gotten this a lot. So the purchase accounting, Vince, in the quarter and the outlook going forward?

Sure. The accretion was $13.2 million of the kind of remaining discount from the seasonal approach there. And you may remember that was $17 million in the first quarter. So down a little bit, but still a pretty good healthy level there.

Okay, great. And then, Gary, on the credit quality front, so the defaults at 10% sounds like the new requests have dramatically slowed. I believe you guys were on a three-month program. So, I mean, they should be either extending or going back to normal. What is sort of, based on your indications and discussions, how do you expect that 10% to trend in the next quarter, this quarter?

Hey, Casey, in reference to that, we did do 90 days, and it really got active in late April, mid to late April into May. June flattened out significantly. There was very small numbers of activity in June. So what we did, we had a significant number of our clients made the April payment. March was already made. They made the April payment and we kind of shoved them further into the recovery. So at this point, we've only seen about 50 commercial requests for second deferrals and about 250 on the retail side. So at this point, it's been very light. And the bankers are working closely with those clients and talking with them on a regular basis. We do expect that to ramp up as we work through the rest of July and into into August and September a bit, but at this point, it's very light.

Okay, but so do you expect those deferrals to stay at 10% when you guys report in October, or do you expect a lot of them to go back to normal?

Yeah, we expect a lot of those deferrals to go back to normal payments, and we'll report that going forward. as a lot of those clients are not going to need a second deferral. It's going to be a significant number that will not need it from our perspective at this point.

Okay, great.

I think what you will see, you will see heavier deferrals for second requests coming in the hotel space and in that restaurant space as they have more pressure The other item that I'll mention to you again is coming into the situation using the end of the year, 98.4% of these clients who took the deferrals were in perfectly good standing. So it was a very small number, as mentioned in my report, that weren't working in the normal course of business. Naturally, this You know, we're preserving liquidity and being cautious. But, you know, hopefully that answers the question for you, you know, holistically.

Yes, yes, thank you. And so on the reserve bill, you guys, you know, had moderated this quarter. Just, you know, when did you, what forecast, how late and, you know, how late is the, you know, how recent is the forecast that you used to build your reserve? And do you guys... Given that the reserve build moderated this quarter, do you feel like you and the deferrals, you're getting decent news there. Do you feel like the reserve build, the heavy lifting has been done? I know it's a tough question to answer. It changes every day. But just given where deferrals are going and your lower reserve build, it feels like the heavy lifting is behind. So just some color there.

Yeah, on the model first, let me address that one for you first. We continue to use a recessionary scenario, Casey, released in mid-June, with the average unemployment rate of 11% over the forecast horizon, with annualized year-over-year GDP not turning positive until the middle half of 2021. So it's a fairly good recessionary scenario that we've used in the model. As it relates to the second part of the question, with our focus and consistent view on our underwriting and our credit culture around the desired asset classes that we want to put in the book and the position and mix of our portfolio, I feel pretty confident that our book will generally outperform through the cycle, as it did in the last. That said, there is a significant amount of uncertainty, as you've mentioned, in the economy. At this point, if the economy deteriorates further from here, the portfolio would experience higher levels of stress. Given our position and the performance to date, our portfolio mix, The smaller portfolios across higher asset classes, we'll continue to assess the positions around it as the third quarter plays out. A few additional comments here. Remember in Q1, we captured the March 27 forecast when others may not have. So we utilized that most recent bit of information around our forecasted models at that point. And during that first half, we built totally $55 million now through the first six months. Also of note, we really essentially have no credit card, student loan, and a very small energy portfolio. Those are tough from a reserve standpoint during this environment that we all know. In addition, we had a pretty significant decline in line utilization. indirect auto and some declines in the small business portfolio which really freed up about 10 million dollars in additional reserves during the quarter for us so that you know that helped as well and finally you know when you look at the uh the macroeconomic environment and looking at it from a static position moving forward similar performance across our portfolio We wouldn't expect much of any additional build from a microeconomic forecast perspective, and we'll continue to manage that accordingly based on how the economy evolves from here.

Thanks, Tom. Hey, Chad, I would just add, you know, if you looked at, and I think we commented on this, but, you know, the reserve coverage excluding the PPP was the 154. We have $77 million of remaining discount on the acquired loans that's left, you know, in the CCRs. And then as we had in our slides, you know, we have another $14 million in reserve for unfunded lines, you know, which is another seven basis points or so. So there's, you know, there's a good amount that we've added to the reserves, you know, since the end of the year, to Gary's point.

Understood. And Vincey, just last one for me. The total capital ratio, I didn't see it in the release of the deck. Just what was it at 630?

Total risk-based capital ratio? No. We did not disclose that yet, Casey. You know, we have the CET1 at 9.4. I'll probably be able to get that by the end of the call. I just don't have that handy.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Frank Schirardi with Piper.

Good morning.

Good morning, Fred.

Just on the follow-up on credit. You know, as you guys point out, if you look at the reserve ratio with the include the acquired book, you know, it seems to hold up well versus where peers are. But, you know, if I drill down into categories, you know, at first glance, it seems to be a little bit thinner in some areas than I would have expected. So I just wonder if you could give maybe a little bit more detail or color around, for example, the retail Cree book. where I think reserves are still just under 1%.

Yeah, when you look at that portfolio, Frank, we have at this point very few problem credits in that book. We feel very good about our sponsors across that portfolio, and we've really focused our underwriting in that book at higher cash flow streams and required debt service coverages over the last few years due to the fact that some of it is retail-focused, as we've talked. One of the things that we have in there is an extremely low level of delinquency today. Naturally, the situation is fluid, but the delinquency in that book is 60 basis points. with very low levels of any rated credit at this point. So that book has been very nicely underwritten from our perspective. And as mentioned in my earlier comments, the LTVs across it are right at 65%, so we're well positioned in that portfolio at this point. So really feel good about it and working with those clients. What's happening at this point, we are seeing rental streams start to increase as the economy has opened up. We'll continue to keep an eye on that as we move forward, but hopefully we'll continue to see positive momentum there as we are.

And how are you guys approaching downgrades? Are deferrals pushing downgrades of credits to classified credits? criticized are the deferrals pushing that down the road or are you taking them as they come and just wondering if you feel like there could be as these deferrals come off a migration there that could drive further reserve bills during the first round the credits that were insensitive industries were generally moved a notch

Other credits that were in a very strong position and were being conservative, those particular ones weren't moved. During the second phase here, every second deferral will require a one-notch downgrade, if not two in most instances, to a substandard rating. So we'll continue to work that portfolio in that fashion. and address those ratings accordingly based on the risk present in each one of those credit situations.

Frank, I will tell you, and in the commercial portfolio, I'll speak to the commercial portfolio, Gary, I'm not sure if you're crossing over into consumer, but there's very active management risk rating reviews that go on perpetually. So there's a very aggressive management system in place to ensure that as we review financials, and review credit covenant compliance, that the appropriate risk rating is assigned to those credits. So the migration on risk rating, if that's what you're asking, is going on now. I mean, it's been going on. When these deferrals come in, it may have been a little early, right? Because the majority of the impact for our commercial customers, based upon what I'm hearing, was happening in April. You know, late March into April and May. And then they've kind of rebounded back. Most of the industries have come back well beyond where they were at the depths of April. So that's an ongoing process, and we have a fairly rigorous process in place to review this rating.

Vince's point there, Frank, is a very good point. I mean, we're We're known from a regulatory standpoint to be very aggressive from a risk rating touch standpoint. Our focus is that every time a banker touches a credit, no matter what it is, whether it's annual review time, whether it's line of credit renewal time, or whether it's a phone call, we require them to assess the situation and downgrade risk on a month-to-month basis. So that proactive approach, I think, has been in place for many years.

Great. Thanks. And then just a quick one on expenses, if I could. You guys gave some guide for what to expect in the third quarter. If you could just give us a little bit of the puts and takes in terms of getting there from this quarter. I know you had the... the tax credit would have increased expenses this quarter. So just trying to get a sense of, you know, if I look at, if I take out the COVID-related expense, I guess I'm at like 174 for the expense base in the quarter. So is that kind of where you're talking off of in terms of a steady to slightly upward? And is that a good run rate, you know, maybe beyond 3Q, if you can give us any sense there? Thanks.

Sure. Yeah, on the slide, we mentioned that, you know, we had the $4.1 million impairment. And then going the other way, because you didn't see much movement in that other non-interest expense line item, you know, we had lower business development. We had lower OREO, two-quarter for OREO. We had lower miscellaneous losses and miscellaneous. So they kind of net out. As you can see, it was 21.9 in the first quarter and 21.9 in the second quarter. So when you look forward to, you know, to the third quarter, I mean, the comments that I made in my prepared remarks, kind of in the mid, you know, the mid-170s, you know, I'd say kind of somewhere between 175, 177-ish or so. You know, that includes commissions on mortgage activity, which has been very heavy, so that's some of that come through in the third quarter. So, I mean, it's really right around, you know, I think last quarter I used like a 178. I think we'd be south of that. You know, we came in at the 176 kind of on a total basis, 174, like you said. So, it's somewhere around there, Frank. You know, 175 to 177, that kind of uses a run rate, you know, for the third quarter. And, you know, in the fourth quarter, we're not really given any other direction there. But, you know, there's nothing unusual on the horizon that would hit that.

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Thank you.

And the next question comes from Michael Young with SunTrust.

Hey, good morning. Good morning, Michael. A quick follow-up question to start just on credit. You know, on slide nine, you guys present kind of your historical charge-off peak rate going back to the last crisis. but you obviously performed well through ex-Florida. Is that kind of the right way to think about charge-offs this time around, Gary? Do you feel comfortable with that, or do you think that, you know, given kind of the severity of the shock and potential length of this crisis, it could be worse this time around?

You know, I feel similarly confident, definitely. Michael, around how the portfolio will perform through a cycle such as this, when you look at our models, as we mentioned in terms of the stress testing that we're doing and all of the models that we're running across the portfolio and the build of $55 million during the first six months of the year, If you would add that to normalized charge-offs, you're looking at charge-offs on an annualized basis in the 45 basis point range or so at that stress level. And the models are confirming that. It feels to me quite good. Naturally, the economy has to stabilize at some point. The volatility needs to move away. But at this point, it feels good from that perspective.

Okay. So just to kind of put everything together, I mean, if we took a charge-off rate similar to that and then assumed kind of the macro conditions have maybe stabilized in terms of the CECL allowance outlook, then you would just be kind of accounting for downgrades and those charge-offs that we kind of already mentioned. And that's kind of how we should think about credit and provisioning going forward.

I would say that's appropriate. And providing for growth. Right.

Sure. Yeah, we're hoping for that, I think. We're hoping for growth. Yeah. And then maybe switching gears, Vince, just on the PPP loans and the fees associated with with those. Was there any recognition of those fees on an accelerated amortization basis this quarter? And then what is your outlook for that, you know, on a go-forward basis?

Yeah, no, I would say, you know, the forgiveness process hasn't started yet. You know, the SBA is still working on how they're going to receive forgiveness applications. So, kind of we're ready for that once it comes, but it's not, you know, they're not ready to be able to start that process yet. So, So the fee recognition that came in would be just kind of the normal accretion of the fees over the vast majority of the loans are the two-year terms. We had a handful with the five years. So I guess the one way to look at it is just the yield for the second quarter was 315, 3.15, which is the coupon plus accretion of a portion of the fees. So we don't have any acceleration that's coming in there yet. And you really don't know. It's hard to predict. I mean, You know, in our heads, we've been kicking around. Maybe you get 15% forgiveness in Q4. You probably won't get any in the third quarter just because they're not ready yet. So then they have 90 days to respond, and it pushes it out into the fourth quarter. So I guess for, like, modeling purposes, we've been using 15% as an assumption in Q4. And then maybe you get three-quarters of it by the end of March, and then maybe 90% by the end of June, and then you have some tail. And those are just reference points, Michael. Nobody really knows, but... We do expect to get some level of forgiveness that will happen in the fourth quarter. And then depending on the magnitude of that, that pulls some of the fees forward. So those are kind of the key points there as far as the PPP balances. And in the third quarter, I should just comment too. So the average balance was $1.9 billion. The average balance in the third quarter would be kind of the 2.5 net is what we'll have because you didn't have all of it throughout the second quarter.

The other thing I'll say, this is Vince, I'll put a pitch in for our IT folks and Sam Kirsch and Digital Channels. We built down a fairly robust system for clients to upload the information and to walk them through the forgiveness process, which keeps changing and is fairly sophisticated, but a very nice process. And then Gary Gerrari hired a team of people and has assembled a team that will focus on acting as liaisons for clients to help facilitate the forgiveness process. So we're still hoping for an easier process on those smaller loans that I know is being kicked around for instantaneous forgiveness for under $150,000. That would help to for our clients. The only other thing I'll point out is when you look at the balances, our loan balances overall were, if you subtract it out, the PPP loans would be down slightly. It was at 1%, I think, 1%, 1.5% overall. It's kind of a hard equation to do because we have small the dispersion of deployment of those PPP loans, the relative size of our loans are smaller. Typically, those customers would borrow through the PPP program, pay down their working capital facilities, right, because the rate differential is fairly significant, and then borrow back on their lines if they have confidence that they're going to be able to do that. So I think it's When we look at the transfer from PPP to our own revolver balances or line balances, small business customers, that explains some of the decline in the portfolio. The overall activity across the company, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, was pretty good. And there are still financeable enterprises out there. There are entities that we would certainly consider profitable. providing credit to. You know, there are other industries that are distressed, and we don't play significantly, as you can see from the breakdown of the portfolio that we've provided in our disclosures. You know, we're not very active in a number of those areas. So, you know, I'm a little more optimistic about the activity moving forward. Of course, we haven't seen the fallout yet that will happen I think from a credit perspective in the third and fourth quarter. So far, you know, it looks okay for us. Anyway, I thought I'd share that with you. Some additional commentary.

Yeah, thanks for that additional color, Vince. And then just maybe last one for me just on the net interest margin. you know, it looks like you guys still have some room to bring down the deposit and funding costs from here. Could you maybe just talk about the timing and opportunity with that and then if there's any, you know, kind of lingering roll down in loan yields from this point?

Well, on the liability side, I mean, I think that there's opportunity within the deposit base. I know, you know, we've had significant deposit growth even outside of the PPP the growth related to PPP balances coming on. Our demand deposits were up significantly and were trending up over the last few years. So that has continued. I think there are opportunities there to bring down our overall cost. And I let Vince talk about the asset side of the equation in terms of margins. But on the liability side, there is room for us to continue to improve.

Just a couple comments. So, you know, when you look at the performance for the quarter, so net interest income declined 4.7 million. You know, given that we had 105 basis point reduction in one month LIBOR from 141 to 36 basis points, you know, that's a $22 million reduction in interest income on $8.5 billion. When you look at the net decline given that 22.3, you know, it's not a bad outcome there. And then, as I mentioned in the beginning of the call, the accretion coming in a little bit lower from 17 to 13 had some impact just comparing the second quarter to the first quarter. But when you look at the – we had $2 billion growth in average earning assets, largely funded with $1.8 billion in non-interest-bearing deposits. And that's been continuous growth. Obviously, it has additional influx from the programs, but we've been growing DDAs every year. So, when you look at the cost of the interest-bearing deposits, as we had on the slide, we were able to bring that down 37 basis points to help mitigate the impact on the LIBOR. So, we were able to offset a good chunk of that, which is a positive. If you look at the kind of entry point into the third quarter, on a spot basis, the cost of interest-bearing deposits at 61 basis points, the average for the quarter was basis point kind of head start going into the third quarter. And there's still buckets of deposits that we've targeted and we're looking at and continuing to expect to bring those rates down some more. So there's definitely some more impact there. I think as far as the asset side of it, LIBOR is at 18 basis points. It was down to 16, so it's up a couple. We'll take a couple basis points, but I don't think there's anything unusual that would come through kind of third quarter versus second quarter, just other than mix, the mix of the loans that you put on. So nothing really kind of beyond that. And the spreads have kind of been stable in the recent months.

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Thanks, Buck. Thank you. And the next question comes from Baron Shaw of Wells Fargo.

Hey, guys. It's Jared here. Good morning. So just a question, I guess, on the reserve build. So that $17 million of incremental build from the macro forecast, Gary, is that just taking the model with the macro assumptions that you laid out and that's what's flowing through, or are there some qualitative overlays, some of those other items that you discussed that offset what the model would otherwise have spit out for the for the macroeconomic expectation for the reserve?

No, it would include some overlays around our normal modeling process, Jared. So yeah, it is inclusive of overlays and qualitatives.

Okay. Yeah, I guess if we see the macro model deteriorate in third quarter? Should we assume that there's potentially some additional overlays that would offset just the pure impact of that move or not necessarily?

It's going to remain fluid. I can't speculate on what the situation with the forward view is going to be at that point. Based on where we are today, We feel good about, you know, the position of the portfolio. We'll continue to keep an eye on it and manage it as the macroeconomic environment changes, you know, going forward.

Okay. Vince, earlier in your commentary, you'd mentioned something about evaluating business opportunities, and as you go forward, can you give a little color around what that could look like?

Yeah, I mean, there are certain areas. For example, we just booked a fairly large credit. Believe it or not, it's a developer that has tenants. 99% occupied $25 million deal that an insurance company was looking to get out of retail exposure. The loan to value is 55%. The debt service coverage is 2.2 times or greater. So there are transactions out there that you would do. The tenant base is largely large investment-grade banks. There's four banks and now parcel on the property. And there's a grocery store that's very solid, long-term lease. I mean, these are all long-term leases. There are opportunities to do business. I mean, we're just going to have to be extraordinarily selective on what we go after. We also recently won a large credit facility for a double A-rated higher education institution. So there's still activity going on with billions of dollars in reserves. So we're just going to have to watch what we do. And I know that our folks are very in tune with the appropriate opportunities to go after. We have the capital and the liquidity to continue to move forward. And the conservative nature of our underwriting puts us in a position today to continue operating. And we've said that all along. That's our business model. You know, we're not as flashy during the expansion periods, but, you know, pretty solid during the downturn. And I think that creates stability for lending, you know, from our perspective and continues business activity. So, you know, I'll tell you, our employees, you know, not to – You know, I made prepared comments, but these people have worked countless hours doing the PPP program, managing the credit risk. I could go on and on and on. I mean, I'm so impressed with what they've been able to do. And our pipeline, if you look at our production over the last quarter, you know, our production was pretty comparable to the previous quarter, you know, the post-COVID quarter that we were comparing to. So, again, you know, they're not just sitting at home, which is what I was afraid was going to happen. They're working very hard. And, you know, my hat's off to our employees. They're passionate about their customers. They care. And, you know, they're very eager to make sure we get through this and get through it soundly. So there is a lot of activity.

So as we look forward, though, that's the type of stuff we should be assuming, not, you know, bank M&A. Is that correct?

At this point, we've said for the last three years we're not focused on it. I don't think this would be the appropriate time to focus on it. We need to right the ship here from an economic perspective as a country, and we need to get a better feeling for what's going to happen. There's a lot of uncertainty as we move forward, but the one thing I'm certain about is the quality of the people that we have and our ability to manage through it. We've proven it before. It's the same management team through the last crisis. And many of the bankers are the same. So I feel very confident that we're going to get through this and we'll be in a great position to decide what we want to do on the other end of it. Maybe M&A after we're through this is a distinct possibility for us given the strength of the company. So we'll play that card down the road. I think as we sit today... The other thing I will mention, Jared, is we opened our PPP program up to non-clients in our newer markets because we felt that some of the larger institutions were incapable of delivering. And in the first round of PPP, our people originated $2.1 billion. We were able to convert 83% and fund 83% of the applications that we brought in. Most of the large banks were in the low 20s or 30% range. So we brought over a lot of clients or prospects that are now clients that will lead to future opportunities for our bankers because they're now part of the capital structure of these companies. So I'm optimistic once we get through this about that as well. There's at least 2,000 middle market prospects that we now have a relationship with. So we'll see how that all plays out down the road. very good execution by our employees, and that's why we're where we are.

Great. Thanks.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Russell Gunther with the AA Davidson.

Hey, good morning, guys. Hi, Russell. Just a follow-up on the deferral conversation earlier so I understand, you know, your kind of holistic view on this exposure. So, you know, the 98% that's current and in good standing coming into the pandemic. But do you guys consider these customers to be higher risk given that they are in a forbearance program currently? And if so, is that accounted for in the current reserve?

The answer is yes. I mean, many of those customers, Russell, with the onset of the pandemic and the shock to the economy, and the shock to everyone in the business community, a significant number of them were wanting to be cautious. Some of them drew their lines up. Our line draws went up to about 46%, 47%. They wanted to grab liquidity. They looked for deferrals. 75% plus of our commercial deferrals decided to pay the interest, not take interest deferrals. So they paid the interest at their own volition. The more compromised industries took P&I deferrals, as we've talked about. You know, the books are relatively small. You know, hotels and restaurants have been severely impacted. I would expect those clients in those industries to be taking second place deferral opportunities due to the volatility in opening, reopening, closing down, and what does the future look like. That all being said, the deferrals in the restaurant business has been remarkably low at, I think it's about 32%. That has been quite surprising to us that it's not been higher. So the risk ratings have been dealt with. The risk ratings continue to be dealt with. Second requests will cause additional further downgrades. And we feel that we have the appropriate risk classifications across the credits in the portfolio at this point.

I appreciate that, Gary. And then apologies if I missed it, but did you guys disclose where criticized and classified assets are? this quarter. I'm not sure I saw it in the release.

We did not, but that should be in the queue, I'm sure.

Just directionally, can you touch on whether there's a significant migration?

They're up moderately.

Okay. Thanks, Gary. And then from a timing perspective on charge-offs, you know, whatever the magnitude, obviously a lot of unknowns with stimulus and forbearance, but I guess just your assumptions around timing in terms of when we could see charge-offs begin to start going up from, you know, you've still had a very solid first half of the year.

Yeah, I would tell you, Russell, that you're going to see that impact in Q4. and into 2021. May see a little impact late in Q3, but I would tell you Q4 and into 2021 would be my view.

Okay. Thanks, Gary. And then last one for me, guys. You provided some broad strokes on the PPNR guide for the third quarter and tightened up the expense range for us, so appreciate that. But trying to tie it all together, do you think you can maintain this level of PPNR QQ based on the puts and takes of that PPNR guide?

Well, I think, you know, we give you all the drivers, Russell, right? So I think kind of giving you the moving parts there. I think if you kind of go through some of the elements, you know, if you think about net interest income, for instance, right, we're going to have you know, one month LIBOR today is at 18 basis points, so it averaged 36 in the second quarter. So, you know, if you bring that down and apply it to $8.5 billion, it's about $3.8 million a quarter of net interest income just from the LIBOR adjustments there, okay? And then you have, you know, the purchase accounting I mentioned was 13. I would still expect it to be strong in the third quarter, you know, probably be a little bit lower than that, but it's still kind of a good level. I would expect so it'll kind of be in the double digits at least. So that's an element to net interest income. And then the PPP loans, you'll have the full $2.5 billion. Those are additive to net interest income and additive to margin the longer they're funded with DBA. And as I mentioned earlier, we're going to continue to work down the cost of the interest-bearing deposits, so that clearly will have a positive impact. But kind of net interest income, I would expect it to be down a little bit you know, the fee income should still be at a very strong level. You know, the guidance, as I mentioned there, we would expect the service charges to bounce back up. I mean, they were running in the kind of 40% to 50% year-over-year decline for the transaction volumes, and that's running more in the 20% to 25%. So I would expect to see kind of that element of non-interest income, you know, increase some. I mean, mortgage at a 16% You know, $17 million is a record high. I wouldn't expect that to be as strong as that, but I would expect that to still kind of be in the double digits for sure. And we'll see. There's a lot of pipelines high. There's a lot of activity continuing to go on, and this is a busy time for that business. And then the capital markets piece, you know, that number, we've set a couple new records in a row. I would expect that to be very strong again. in the third quarter. I can't predict another record, but I expect it to be very strong kind of relative to what's in there. And then some of the other key businesses that were down, you know, the wealth and insurance businesses, I would expect those to kind of bounce back up. So, you know, non-interest income in total kind of will reflect all those drivers. So, again, there's a lot of moving parts. And the service charges, you know, we'll see how that plays out. the recent movement increase in the transaction. It's still down, but it's not down as much. It would be helpful. And then the expense side, as you know, we manage expenses very closely as a company, and we always do. And, you know, the expenses have been, if you look at them kind of on an operating core basis, they've been very, very flat. So I think that, you know, that will help overall. So, I mean, where the PPNR ends up, net-net, I mean, we'll see. I would still expect it to be very strong. I think when you look at the where it was for the first six months, $236 million on a year-to-date basis, I would expect it to still be very strong again in the third quarter. I know I'm not giving you a number, but I'm trying to give you guys all the different drivers and kind of understand what we're seeing and just what the outlook is from where we sit today. I want to go back to Casey's question earlier. So the total risk-based capital estimate would be about 11.9%. I think last quarter, there's a slide in here. I think it was 11.6. 11.6. It was 11.8 at the end of the year, 11.6 at the end of March. So the estimate is 11.9 for where we would be at the end of June.

We did have tangible book value for share growth. All right. Yeah. BB growth in the quarter.

Well, Vince, thank you guys for all the color on taking the PPNR question and for answering all my questions. Thank you.

Thanks, Rush.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Colin Gilbert with KBW.

Good morning, guys. It's a long call, so I'll have to be quick. So just starting quickly, Vince Calabrese, just a question on the PPP impact. So in terms of the interest income contribution in 2Q related to PPP, I think calculate maybe roughly $16 million. Can you just verify that? And then also related to PPP, what the OPX benefit was? You sort of alluded to it, but from the deferred loan origination cost from PPP loans also in the second quarter?

Sure. The $1.9 billion, the total interest income on that for the quarter was basically $15 million for the quarter. So 315 yield you'll get to if you use those two pieces, $1.9 billion And then we'll have, like I said, the $2.5 billion average we would have since there won't be any forgiveness yet in the third quarter. And that $315 includes accretion of the portion of the fees, as I mentioned earlier. And then the FAS 91 deferred origination cost went up by $3.7 million from the first quarter to the second quarter, which is just driven by the PPP is obviously the biggest driver of that. So So that benefit helps on the expense side. And then that kind of comes in, your accretion comes in net of that. That's a yield adjustment over the remaining life as well as the fees. But obviously there's a net positive given the fees minus the cost. So that was the delta for the quarter of 3.7.

Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And then just lastly, Gary, great color on some of the credit moves, especially with the retail CREs. Just curious if you could give us a little bit maybe similar credit metrics within the hotel book. I mean, it's a small percent of the overall book. I get it, you know, 1.5% or whatever. But just looking at the reserve on that, that's 1.56, just kind of where you have comfort. Like what about that book gives you comfort that that's the right reserve level?

Yeah, in terms of that portfolio, when you look at the performance of it, A significant chunk of that portfolio in excess of $100 million or probably about 40 plus percent of it is what I would call our few core customers in that space. We have never been a hotel lender other than some very strong, well-heeled, long-tenured hotel professionals So there's a good chunk of that business that is very, very sound. The majority of the rest of it came from acquisitions. You'll recall that the portfolio got up in excess of $530 to $550 million post-acquisition. We have run it down to $350 million. We have not lent into the space for over four years at this point. Delinquency on that book, naturally some of the weaker, smaller hotels, when I say that I'm talking about small mom and pop shops, which we got through some acquisitions, were helped surely by the government stimulus and the deferral programs. But delinquency is at 15 basis points. And, you know, we've really de-risked that portfolio over the last few years, as I mentioned. You know, is it going to withstand some losses? Absolutely. You know, we understand that. And we'll work through what we can with our clients. And you'll probably have some increases in non-accrual assets in that book as well, I would surely expect as we move forward. But generally speaking, I feel, you know, good about the position of it. We've moved higher-risk assets off the books, and we'll have to deal with some. Hopefully that helps give you some color there.

Yeah, that's very helpful. Okay, that's all I had. Thanks, everyone.

Thanks, Colin.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Rudy Preston with Stevens, Inc.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for sticking around so long to answer all the questions. Good morning, Brett. Just had a quick question. Could you remind me why the $77 million PCD discount isn't part of the reserve post-CECL?

Well, it's a discount on the loan portfolio, so when you go through the CECL accounting and you gross up the acquired loans into the loan balance, it's just a discount that gets accreted in. I mean, that's just the way the accounting rules work. It's basically what marks that we had left on the acquired loans Prior to CECL, yeah, the pools, you had basically retained gains or remaining marks that were left there because you couldn't bring that into income until the pool was gone or very close to gone.

It was stranded capital.

Stranded there, right.

Okay. All right. Thanks for that. The 154 reserve ratio, XPPP, you know, with CECL is supposed to be for expected lifetime losses. So just I don't know if you could give us a sense for what that sort of implies within your modeling for, I guess, near-term peak MPAs.

In terms of peak MPAs, Brody, I'm not going to sit here and speculate on that. That's a difficult thing to do. There's so much volatility in the environment. When you look at where is this thing going, I don't think any of us really know. When you look at the economy today and where it's going, I would tell you that you're going to see increases in NPAs as we work through this situation across the industry. As far as throwing out a peak number, I don't feel comfortable doing that.

Okay. All right, and then I guess maybe switching gears to PPP, just given the cost of servicing the PPP loans and some of the, I guess, the longer timeline of working through forgiveness, have you all considered selling these loans to a third party like we've seen some smaller banks do?

Yeah, I mean, we've received calls on that, and the people who want to buy it want to kind of get all the income for free. So it really doesn't work. I mean, we've looked at it.

So once you originate it, I think you have it, it's going to lead to, for us, first of all, it was beneficial to our clients. And they're very appreciative of it. It helps build loyalty. I think for us to sell it at this point would not go over well. And, again, we were able to build out an automated process that made it very efficient. We were one of the few banks that had an end-to-end process. digital process. We introduced bankers along the way. There were a thousand bankers that interacted with clients, but they had a fully digitized process, paperless process, to bring them on. The same is going to happen with forgiveness for us. We invested pretty heavily internally in the resources to be able to do that. That's a differentiator for our company. We're going to have a very slick system that's online that permits Forgiveness walks the client through step by step on forgiveness and enables them to upload documents digitally. So we're able to do it a little more efficiently. A smaller bank might struggle. They'd have to outsource probably portions of that or maybe all of it. So at that point, they may be looking to get out from under the burden of processing those loans. Considering in most cases, smaller banks, it was a larger percentage of their total assets. For us, it's a substantial portfolio, but we can manage it with the resources that we have. Plus, I mentioned the thousands of non-customers that we had relationships with. Our bankers had been calling on and called in and said, hey, I can't get my EPP loan through my large bank. Would you be willing to do it for us? We accommodated those requests I will say something else too that I didn't mention. I mentioned in my prepared comments. Our folks reached out to 100 community groups and non-profits in low to moderate income communities across our footprint. This was before it became an issue. We were able to originate a half a billion dollars in PPP loans in those low to moderate income and rural communities where the job job retention is critically important. So I was very proud of what we did, and I think we've done a masterful job of underwriting them, of ensuring that we have good quality borrowers on the other end, and we're going to carry it through.

Okay. Thanks for that.

Anyway, that's our philosophy, overall philosophy on it.

All right. And then on the, just going back to the margin, you know, liquidity, you had a pretty significant increase in cash, you know, $370 million or so. Just wanted to understand how much of that was driven by PPP, if any, and sort of what you expect for cash balances moving forward.

Yeah, you know, the influx of the deposits that we had, which exceeded the loans and loans deposit ratio coming down to 92 kind of captures all of that. You know, as Vince mentioned in his remarks, you know, we went from having overnight million that you're mentioning there, which really isn't that big on our balance sheet. And kind of just here today, that's running at about zero. So, you know, as the deposits at some point will get utilized, you know, that number will kind of flex up and down as that happens. And then in the meantime, you know, the PPP is such a big driver to the numbers. You know, we continue to add new relationships and new accounts and gaining new business. And, you know, to Vince's point, you know, 25% We're non-customers.

So that's a pool of clients that we're going to be actively in our... They opened depository relationships with the bank because they needed to fund the loan. Some of them chose to move additional deposits over or expand the relationship. So when you look at... We actually tracked the PPP fundings. We have a system that we put into place. It's not 100% accurate, but we developed it. to watch flows of funds, you know, migration of funds. And what we've seen is an expansion in the number of accounts that we have with that pool of customers. So the deposit balances, in certain instances, exceed the amount of the PPP loan that was funded. That's helped us. I mean, if you look at the deposits overall, we're up well over the amount of the PPP balances. And some of those balances went and moved over to pay down existing debt So we're looking pretty good from a deposit perspective. I mean, I feel pretty good about our funding base and our ability to gain households.

And our teams are working to expand those relationships.

And that's in the midst of a pandemic. So I think in social, civil unrest, I think, like I said, our people have done a tremendous job. I couldn't be prouder.

All right, great. That's it for me, everyone. Thank you for the time this morning, and thanks for taking my questions. No, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Thank you. And the last question goes to William Wallace with Raymond James.

Hey, guys. I'll try to be quick. One quick modeling question. On the PPP, based on the way the rules are written today, what is your expectation of the percent of loans that will be forgiven?

Well, I think In total, I would think the vast, vast majority will be forgiven. I mean, it's got to be in the 90s. We don't know with certainty. Vince mentioned they're talking about an automatic forgiveness for loans below $150,000. I'm not sure if that's going to happen or not, but that clears out. I mean, our average, I think, was under that.

The average is $129,000.

Right. I also think we did a pretty good job, Wally. When you brought clients in, there was an opportunity to walk them through what would be required for forgiveness. And I think our folks, based upon what we required, there was a certification by the lender that we required that they validated certain pieces of information and had discussion. That's why we activated 1,000 bankers across multiple lines of business to interact with the clients. That will help in the forgiveness process. That will help us achieve a higher percentage of forgiveness.

And then, Wally, just to restate what I said earlier, I mean, our assumption right now or our estimate, just based on kind of an informed estimate, was to get 15% in the fourth quarter, have 75% of total forgiveness by the end of March, and then 90% by the end of June is kind of at least what we're thinking about.

Okay. Thank you very much. And then one big question for you, Vince D. In your prepared remarks, you gave some numbers that – suggest a pretty significant increase in utilization of the digital network with your customer base. You guys have been pretty diligent and thoughtful about your branch network over the years, and you've slowly consolidated it. I'm wondering if the increase in utilization of the digital network changes the way you might approach the decisions around the branch network, if you could talk about that and that step out there.

Yeah, I appreciate the question. It's a great question. I think that, obviously, in this environment, you know, there's been a, let's say, an accelerated educational process for clients. We had such a huge increase in adoption in those digital channels. You know, we've always focused on the interface with the client. We always believed that, you know, what we could control, because we're not, you know, we don't have unlimited budgets, was how easy it is for a consumer to interact with us. And that's really what we focused on, the interface. I think our folks did an exceptional job with our website. I'd recommend if you haven't been on it, go and take a look at our website. It's designed in a way that's very easy and intuitive to purchase products and services or view educational content. the ability to put that out is going to make changes. The educational process that took place through COVID-19 will certainly push users to that platform. You know, we have had a process. We've closed a lot of branches. I mean, we've consolidated, I don't even know the numbers, but, you know, generally 15 to 20 a year over the last five years have been consolidated. Some of it through M&A, some of it, you know, opportunistically because of the the change in client preferences. I would expect that to continue, but I will tell you that throughout this process, a number of clients have written me letters, sent me emails, stopped me on the street, and asked, when are your lobbies going to be open? Small business customers still like to go to the branch, and they want to go and make their deposits at the branch, because in many instances, they still use cash. They have coin and currency, and they need to to come in. Clients, when they have issues, like to stop in. So I think it's gonna be, there was an article that S&P just did. It illustrated our concept branch. I think there will be fewer branches. The design of the branch and how we deliver content on products and services will change, but there will always be a need. There may be fewer of them. And we're gonna continue to look at that to drive efficiency. So our strategy was to invest in the front end system, to invest in the ability to provide products and services in a comprehensive manner, focusing on the interface, and then making sure our branches or branch system is optimized and structured appropriately to accommodate conversations and that content. So anyway, I see that trend continuing it will award us with an opportunity to operate more efficiently as we move forward. Thank you. Thank you very much for the question.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Brian Martin with Janie Montgomery.

Okay, guys, most of my stuff's been answered here, so just a couple housekeeping. Just, Vince, I think you said on the service charge income, you expect, I know it's down this quarter, but you did expect some bounce back perspective. I think you said it was, what, like 40% down, and now it's only down 20%. Kind of that range is how I think about that.

Yes.

You got it, Brian. Okay. Okay, so I just want to make sure I got that right. And then just with the accretion number, I guess just the time frame we should think about, you know, recovering that remaining whatever, 77 million vents, I guess, given some of the bounce, I guess the drop down this quarter, just, you know, most of that is captured by maybe the end of next year. Is that fair to think about that?

Yeah, I mean, the vast majority would be – you know, I'd say over the kind of the two years, two to three years, I would probably say it's probably reasonable. You know, by the end of next year, I would think you'd have kind of the bulk of it kind of coming through. I mean, it's a function of prepayments too, right? So, you know, if more of the loans end up prepaying or go different, you know, behind government programs or something, you'd have more of that that would come in. But I'd say, you know, a two to three year kind of timeframe, Brian, is probably reasonable.

Okay, and then just the last one from me, guys. The impact of the PPP on margin, I guess, this quarter, I guess, or just in general, I guess, your comment on that.

Yeah, I mean, it's actually additive to the margin. I mean, if you look at, I mentioned the yield at 315. I mean, funding it with, you know, basically deposits at three basis points, so you have a spread of about it's adding 10, 15 basis points, I would say, to the margin during that short period there. It's going to be a function of how long those are around as far as them coming through and how long we have them funded with demand deposits. At some point, the customers are going to start to use those funds and then your mix of how you're funding it will change. What I can say for certain is what the second quarter impact was, and it was a 312 additive to the margin to be supported.

Yeah, okay. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, Vince, and that's all I had.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. And that was the last question. I would like to return the floor to management for any closing comments.

Well, I'd like to thank everybody for the questions and surely appreciate the time that you've spent with us and the interest in FMB. Please stay safe and we look forward to meeting with you next quarter. Take care.

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. May not disconnect your lines.