3/10/2025

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Good morning and welcome to Franco Nevada Corporation's 2024 Year-End Results Conference Call and Webcast. This call is being recorded on March 10, 2025. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a Q&A session where you may ask a question through the phone line or webcast. If you are joining by webcast, you may submit a written question for the Q&A session at any time during this call by typing your question in the Q&A section of the webcast platform. If you require immediate assistance during this call, please press star zero at any time for the operator. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you, Joanna.

speaker
Candida Hayden
Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Franklin, Nevada's year-end 2024 results. Accompanying this call is a presentation, which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you will also find our full financial results. The presentation is also available to view on the webcast. During our call this morning, Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco Nevada, will provide introductory remarks, followed by Sandy Parana, Chief Financial Officer, who will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by a Q&A period. Our full executive team is available to answer any questions. Participants may submit questions by the telephone or via the webcast. We would like to remind participants that some of today's commentary may contain forward-looking information, and we refer you to our detailed questionnaire note on slide two of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco Nevada.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thanks, Candida. Good morning.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

First of all, welcome to Daniel Melchuk, who joined our board in January. Daniel's an experienced director and spent much of his executive career at BHP, including roles heading operations in the Americas, running the copper, aluminium, and nickel and manganese businesses, and heading the exploration division. Daniel's Chilean, based out of Santiago, And I'm sure we'll add valuable perspectives on many of the assets and the countries in which we invest. We ended the year well with a strong fourth quarter. DO sales for the year were near the top end of our revised Q guidance range. With a tailwind from rising gold prices, we had higher quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income compared to Q4 2023, even without a contribution from corporate BANMA. 2024 was the most active year in our history for business development. The end of the team ended into more than 1.3 billion in acquisitions and commitments during the year. Transactions included gold stream investment in Cascabel and Ecuador, a royalty on the Anacotra gold mine in Peru, and a principally gold stream on Sibania's Western Limb PGM operations in South Africa. All of them high quality ore bodies with potential to be very long life mines. One of our largest portfolio successes in 2024 was the completion of construction and commercial operation of Tocadizinho in Brazil, where we have a 12.5% gold stream. No surprise, the mine built by the G-Mining team was on time and on budget. Rather than just providing stream financing, Franco Nevada is the financial banker of G-Min Ventures, having provided stream, debt, and equity components. DZ is only the first of many mines that G-Min will build, and Franco by a strong financial banking for the portfolio. In January, we announced a second partnership based on the same principles, a financing package to support Discovery Silver's acquisition of Newmont's porcupine complex in Timmins, including a royalty credit facility and backing for their equity raise. Tony McCooch and team are absolutely the right group to revitalize the porcupine assets and realize the tremendous potential that still remains in the camp. This is possibly only the first move to consolidate operations in the cap. And with financial backing from Franco, Discovery is well positioned for those next steps. The acquisitions over the last 12 months have the potential to add 85,000 to 95,000 geos per annum to our medium-term production profile, almost all gold ounces. With these new additions, along with organic growth from our existing portfolio, These drive the growth outlined in our 2025 guidance and outlook for the next five years. For 2025, the new contributions from Sabania's Western Limb Operations and Porcupine and four-year contributions from Yanacocha, DZ, Greenstone, and Solaris Norte will have a big impact. Some of the highlights for the longer-term outlook are higher silver contributions from Antamina and new gold ounces from the startup of Valentine Gold, Escape Creek,

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

and step-right yield.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

With Sandeep's management of our balance sheet, all the acquisitions were or will be, when the discovery deal closes, funded from our cash balances, and we'll still have no debt and a substantial cash balance. Our growing operating cash flows also allowed us to increase dividends for the 18th consecutive time in January this year.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Cumulative dividends since IPO are now greater than 2.5 billion.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

A business development team could do with a break after all the activity in the last 12 months, but I don't think that's going to happen. We have actual opportunities that could add more attractive assets this year. Finally, I'm very encouraged by the developments in Panama. President Molino has indicated a willingness to discuss corporate Panama this year, and sentiment in Panama now appears more supportive of restarting. I think there are good odds we'll see positive progress this year. With that, I'll have the call over to Sandy.

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. As Paul mentioned, Franklin, Nevada ended the year with a strong fourth quarter, which was the result of both strong production from our asset base and higher precious metal prices. Precious metal prices, with gold in particular, reached record highs in 2024. On slide four, you will see the comparison of commodity prices for both fourth quarter and full year 2024. Gold and silver prices increased significantly for both periods, with gold higher by 34.7% in the quarter and 22.9% for the year. Prices for palladium, iron ore, and oil continued to be volatile and were lower year over year. Slide 5 provides a recap of the company's performance against the revised guidance provided for last year. The updated guidance for 2024 provided for a range of $445,000 to $465,000 total deal sold. Of this total, the company guided 340,000 to 360,000 precious metal geos, with the balance being from diversified assets. With the strong finish at the end of the year, the company ended the year with 463,334 geos sold, which was near the top end of the guidance range. We were also at the top end of the guidance range for precious metals with 355,280 geos sold. The diversified assets, which include our non-precious metal mining assets and energy assets, resulted in just over 108,000 geos sold for the year. I'd like to point out that the revenue generated from our diversified assets was actually in line with our expectations for the year. However, with a 37% higher average gold price in 2024 than our 1950 budgeted gold price, When converting to GEO sold, it actually resulted in the loss of 21,000 GEOs than if the gold price had remained at our budget prices. Turning to slide six, you'll see the 2023 and 2024 fourth quarter comparisons for GEO sold, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA. Total GEO sold were 120,063 in fourth quarter compared to 152,351 in fourth quarter 2023. Precious metal geos sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 were 95,565, higher by 5% compared to prior year when excluding coal-rate PAM. For the fourth quarter, we received strong contributions from Candelaria and benefited from the continued ramp-up of new mines Tocantinio and Greenstone. Candelaria delivered 26,891 geos for the quarter, which was almost 70% higher than prior year and twice as many geos as Q3 2024. Diversified geos sold were $24,298 for the quarter, compared to $32,770 for prior year, despite diversified revenue being flat year-over-year. The approximate 8,000 geos sold difference is due to the impact of geo-conversion using hydro prices. Total revenue for the quarter was $321 million, compared to $303.3 million last year, a 5.8% increase. Precious metals accounted for 79% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was 9% higher for the quarter at $277.4 million compared to $254.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. As you turn to slide seven, you'll see a new measure that we have presented in our year-end financial results. It is called Net Geos. As we look at our royalty and streaming business, we think it's important to evaluate contributions from assets based on margin contribution and not necessarily top line measures. Ruralty GOs are higher margin GOs as there is minimal cost associated with each GO sold versus a stream where an ongoing fixed payment is required. The measure net GOs removes the cost of sales component for all GOs so that all GOs sold are represented after cost. For Q4 2024, net GOs were $107,140 for Franklin, Nevada, compared to $129,527 in Q4 2023. Slide 8 highlights the key financial metrics used by the company. As mentioned, total GEOs sold were 120,063, generating $321 million in revenue in fourth quarter. With respect to cost, we did have a decrease in cost of sales compared to Q4 2023 due to less stream ounces sold, which is predominantly related to the absence of Cobre Padma. Depletion decreased to $60 million versus $68.9 million a year ago. Depletion is based on actual mining geos sold and barrels of oil equivalent received on the energy side of the business. As we received less geos from Cobre, Panama, and Antofagai, this impacted depletion as those assets are higher per ounce depletion assets. Adjusted net income was $183.3 million, or $0.95 per share for the quarter, up 6% and 5% respectively versus prior year. Slide 9 highlights the continued diversification of the portfolio. 76.5% of our full year 2024 revenue was generated by precious metals, with revenue being sourced 83.9% from the Americas. Our largest contributor to revenue was Candelaria at 14.6% for the full year. Slide 10 illustrates the strength of our business model to generate high margins. For full year 2024 cash cost per geo, which is essentially cost of sales divided by gold equivalent ounces sold, is $278 per geo. This compares to $286 per geo in 2023. For the quarter, the cash cost per ounce was $287 compared to $296 in the fourth quarter of 2023. As the gold price has risen, Franklin, Nevada has seen a significant increase in our margin per geo. Margin was $2,375 per geo in Q4 of 2024. We've always stated that in a rising commodity price environment, we expect to benefit fully as the cost per geo sold should not increase significantly. With respect to the company's geo sold guidance for 2025, please refer to slide 11. For 2025, we are guiding total geo sold of between $465,000 to $525,000, which is a 7% increase over 2024. If we use constant pricing between 2025 and 2024, the increase would be 13% year-over-year. On this range, we are guiding 385,000 to 425,000 precious metal geos for the year. This is a 14% increase in precious metal geos over 2024. The overall main drivers for geos year-over-year are for precious metals will benefit from contributions from recent acquisitions. Savanier Western Limb Mining Operation Stream, Porcupine Complex Royalty, and Yannick Coachelote. We will continue to benefit from the ramp-up of new mines that began production in 2024, Tocantinio, Greenstone, and Solaris Norte, and we will begin to receive initial ounces from the currently under construction Valentine Gold Mine in the second half of 2025. Please note, we will no longer be receiving gold ounces from Mineway Solutions, as the cap was reached in October 2024. Our guidance has been calculated using $2,800 per ounce for gold, $31 for silver, 950 platinum, 950 for palladium, and $100 iron ore. Obviously, prices are volatile, and as they change, it will impact the conversion of non-gold commodities to geos. On the energy side, we're using a price of $70 per barrel WTI and $3 MCF natural gas. Using our budgeted goal price of 2,800 per ounce and the midpoint of our total geo guidance range, we expect a 25% increase in 2025 revenue over 2024. Also, with respect to timing, we do expect to see better performance as the year progresses, so a stronger second half is expected. As we look forward over the next few years, we do forecast 2028 as the current high for geos sold based upon the information we have to date. For 2029, our outlook is 490,000 to 550,000 geos sold. Of this range, precious metals will be 375,000 to 415,000 geos. Main contributors will be higher production from Antamina due to access to higher grade ore based on the latest mine plan. Full year contributions from Valentine Gold. and new mine starts from Stibnite Gold, SK Creek, Castle Mountain, and Copperwood. We've also assumed the startup of Takataka with a partial year contribution. We assume mine expansions for Candelaria, Coracoaco and Antipakai, and Maginot. For the energy assets, we do assume an increase in production over the next five years, resulting in an increase in geos. Also, we've held energy prices flat at $70 a barrel WTI and $3 in MCF natural gas. Overall, when you look at the outlook for GEO Sold, the company has approximately 12% built-in organic growth from 2024 to 2029 at budgeted commodity prices, excluding Cobre Panama. This also assumes that no additional assets are added to the portfolio. Please note that for all outlook ranges, we have excluded Cobre Panama in our GEO Sold numbers. At Cobre Panama remained in production, we would have expected deliveries and sales of between 130,000 and 150,000 geos annually. One additional item to note, with the legal proceedings that will move forward related to Cobre Panama, we're expecting to incur annual costs of approximately 10 million per year. These costs will continue to be disclosed separately in our financials. Slide 13 summarizes the financial resources available to the company. When including our credit facility of $1 billion, total available capital at December 31st was $2.4 billion. After year-end, we have funded the $500 million Savanier Western Limb Complex acquisition and expect to fund the Portafine Royalty acquisition during second quarter. The company remains well-capitalized to continue to add long-life, high-quality assets to the portfolio.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

And now I'll pass it over to Jonah, and we're happy to answer any questions.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, you may type your question in the Q&A section of the webcast platform. For those on the phone who wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. The first question comes from Lawson Winder at Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Bank of America Securities

Yeah, thank you very much, operator. And good morning, Paul and Sandeep. I wanted to start off with a couple of questions on Cobre Panama, if I might. So one would be just related to President Molino and some comments that he's made publicly, President Molino of Panama. He indicated that he would require all arbitrations to be halted prior to entering into discussions with First Quantum. I just want to confirm that that also included the Franco arbitration. And does Franco have the ability to put its arbitration on hold or just temporarily put it aside in order to facilitate those negotiations if needed?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thank you, Lawson. This is Paul. A couple of things there. Yes, separate arbitration processes and separate regimes. There is the ability under each of those processes that you can put the arbitration on hold for a fixed time frame. So that is a possibility, although we haven't had any asks from any of the parties to put us on hold yet.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Okay, perfect. And then thanks for that, Paul.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Bank of America Securities

And then another comment that President Molina had made was just Speaking about the economics of the prior deal negotiated under the Cortizo government relating to Cobra Panama and noting that it was unfavorable for Panama, has Franco Nevada had any messages delivered or has any understanding what that could potentially mean for the Franco stream or whether it means anything at all? For example, there's been some discussion of a potential chain in in um the ownership position so a potential ownership ownership position going to the uh uh country of panama um i mean can you comment on any potential implications for uh for franco there i know it's highly speculative but it has been mentioned many times in the panamanian press and we just like to get your views uh yeah so first off you know in terms of economics i i think that the deal that was

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

negotiated a couple of years back was positive, was a good deal for Panama. You'll recall in particular it had the provisions that provided minimum payments in the order of $375 million a year, which I think for any country is a particularly strong provision. So I think there were good economics for Panama in that deal. I know there has been discussion of the country potentially wanting to get a better deal. I'm not surprised by that. In terms of the way that may go for Franco, we're financiers here, not owners. So on the legalities of it, any change in ownership doesn't change the way that our stream is calculated. Any increase in taxes in country or any increase in royalties None of that changes the way that our royalty is written.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Yeah, okay. Thank you very much for those comments. It's very helpful.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Bank of America Securities

And then just two of the other streams that I'd like to ask about, it would just be helpful to get a little bit of color on specifics. So with the SSW, or the Sabani Stillwater South African PGM stream, so it's closed. Congratulations. And then just for Q1, when we think about the 7,000 GEOs from 24 and then the 45-day delay before any GEOs are actually delivered to Franco, how should we think about when the first delivery might occur, whether it be Q1 or Q2, or what would you recommend us modeling with respect to that particular stream?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

So it has closed. It closed a couple of weeks ago. The delivery from September to December for 2024, we will receive in Q1. And you're correct, the next delivery related to 2025 production, there's a 45-day time delay. So that'll come in Q2. So for Q1, you should only be budgeting or estimating the delivery related to 2024.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Bank of America Securities

Okay, fantastic. And then just longer term, thanks for that, Sandeep, just longer term, thinking about the 28 and 29 got in, you know, Magino and Island are now sort of moving in the direction of becoming one operation. So with Magino, there's a 3% royalty, and then with Island, there's a 0.62% royalty. How is that delineated? Or, you know, is there the potential for those to become a combined royalty, or would it strictly dependent from where the ore comes. And so the context here is that the idea is to eventually close the island mill and process island ore at Maginot. Is there an additive benefit here, or is it just we have to figure out what the mix is between the two ore sources going forward to get to the right royalty level?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so right now on Island, we only cover up a portion of the deposit. But at Maginot, we cover the full land package. You're right, they are talking about shutting the Island gold mill. and expanding the Maginot mill to 15,000 tons per day. Alamos is reviewing that right now. So once they do that, it'll just be a question of where does the ore come. When we did our deal, we had budgeted 11,500 tons per day coming from Maginot. So I think at a minimum, that's what we should be receiving on any production going forward once they do expand the mill.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Bank of America Securities

And then in your current 2028 and 2029 guidance, that's the 11,500 tons per day. Is that correct? Correct.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thank you very much, guys. I appreciate it.

speaker
Jonah
Unknown

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

The next question comes from Cosmos Chu at CIBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Thanks, Paul and Sandeep. Maybe my first question is on geos and how you calculate it. Could you remind us each and every quarter how you calculate yields, how you convert commodities, not gold, into gold equivalent ounces? Is that based on the spot prices during that quarter, or is it based on your assumption that you put out beginning of the year, like today, $2,831 an ounce?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Cosmos. Yeah, we will adjust at each quarter. So essentially at a high level, we'll take our non-gold revenue and we will divide by the average gold price for the quarter. So obviously you saw last year, gold prices increased and it impacted the number of geos or diversified assets generated, even though the revenue was the same as what we had expected for the year.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Yeah. And Sandeep, as you mentioned last year, you had to change it because gold prices clearly fluctuated quite a bit beyond what you had expected beginning of 2024. But for 2025 guidance, I guess my question is, could you share with us how much buffer you've put into that guidance? And I guess my question is, how much can it withstand in terms of volatility and commodity prices? Just given that last year when you had to change your guidance in 2024, it was not exactly too well received. I'm just trying to see if that could happen again in 2025.

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

If it does happen, it's actually a great thing because the gold price has gone up significantly. Our guidance range is a 60,000 ounce range. You take the midpoint, so we've got 30,000 geos to the downside. If gold price went up around 20%, I think we'd still be okay. But obviously, it's a risk. That's part of the way we calculate guidance. Certain years, you benefit when other commodities outperform gold prices. But obviously, gold outperforming now, it is impacting the conversion. But we did run a number of sensitivities. At this stage, we're comfortable with the range.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Of course, yeah. I agree. You know, higher gold prices is always better. In the end, it's revenue that really matters. It's cash flow that really matters. So I think you're correct, Santi. Maybe moving on to Kobe, Panama. Paul, as you mentioned, you know, the international arbitration seems to be under different regimes. And I think I noticed that your meeting is October 2026. I think First Quantum had mentioned that their meeting is February 2026. Is there any importances that we should be aware of, of the different timing, of the different sort of regimes that the arbitration is going under, or is it pretty much the same?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

I don't think there's anything to read into the timing there, Cosmos. Okay. First, Quantum has the option of going either under the ICC, which they're going under. They could also go under the Canada Panama Free Trade Agreement, which is what we're going under. It's NPSA that's pursuing it under the ICC. We don't have that option. So our only option is under the Canada Panama. The different tribunals have different time frames that they work under. The difference in timing is just because of the different processes.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Okay. But as you said, Paul, this is really plan B. I think your preferred alternative is for the operator and the government to work out something on their own.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Absolutely. That's always the best outcome.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Of course. One last question, Porcupine. Could you maybe talk about how that deal came about. Clearly this is the only royalty streaming involvement in the Newmont divestitures. And so how did the parties come together? What's the evolution of that deal? My other part of the question is that I see that you are providing a credit facility, Paul, as you mentioned, and an equity investment as well, more sort of full service. financing, is that the type of deal we could expect on a go-forward basis or service on a go-forward basis?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

Hi, Cosmos. It's Ian here. Hi, Ian. Hope you're having a good day. Happy to answer that question, I guess, first off, in terms of how it came together. Tony McCooch, we know well, a number of people in Franklin, Nevada. have a strong relationship with Tony. And when those assets came for sale, the obvious strategy was to work with the ideal person to revitalize them. And so we quickly spoke with Tony and formed a strategy together as to how we would back him in doing that. And the rest is history. We did provide multiple tranches. And I think that's What you will see going forward when we can do that and we find a suitable human asset will provide flexibility because capital markets aren't always the most efficient around these kinds of things. And when we see good ability to get a good return for our shareholders, we'll utilize other elements of the capital structure. So it's not going to be all of what we do, but certainly we hope it's a component going forward and we're very pleased with the results of that transaction.

speaker
Cosmos Chu
CIBC

Great. Those are all the questions I have. Thanks once again, Paul, Sandeep, and Ian. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. The next question comes from Josh Wolfson at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks very much. First question on the five-year guidance. I noticed the inclusion of the underground production expansion at the Candelaria and then also Takataka. We don't have a lot of insights as to what the production contribution could be for those opportunities. Is the company able to provide a bit more disclosure there, maybe what the volume contribution would be? Sure. Candelaria underground expansion, they talked about it going from 14,000 tons per day to 22,000 tons per day. They'll likely make the decision later this year. Obviously, we've made the assumption that they will go ahead with that, but they have to disclose whether they will or not. On Takataka, we just looked at where First Quantum is, and with everything going in Argentina, it would likely be their next project that they develop. In 2029, we've assumed a partial ramp-up. It works out to about 4,000 geos to Franco in the total, so it's not significant. Got it. Thank you very much. And then just a couple of sort of small details. So for Paul Morejo, the disclosures talk about production declining in 2029. Should we assume that production stays steady through 2028 versus some of the very high levels this year? that that's correct you know from 2025 to 2028 it's pretty consistent and then it's about a 50 drop in 2029. and josh those operations have had a great history of being able to replace ounces so that's what's in the mine plan today uh we hope that in the interim that there'll be the ability to extend that my plan god thank you and one last uh small housekeeping question For Bald Mountain, and I know it's not a huge asset in terms of the overall production, but just because the royalty has come up pretty strongly in recent years and the royalty can vary quite a bit depending on what land is being mined. For these new redbird pits, any sort of idea what the royalty rate would be?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Off the top of my head, Josh, I can't recall. I'll have to get back to you on that one. Okay. Thanks very much.

speaker
Jonah
Unknown

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

The next question comes from Heiko Ehle at HC Mainwright. Please go ahead.

speaker
Heiko Ehle
HC Mainwright

Hey there, Paul, Sandeep, and team. Thanks for taking my questions. Recent market volatility has been quite rocky. I mean, today is another fun day in the markets. It gets a bit of an open-ended question, but do you already see some impact of what's going on in pretty much every stock in these out there flowing down into your M&A discussions, or is this essentially offset because gold's still sitting at $2,900?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Everyone is impacted by volatility in some form. But I got to say that the gold mining industry is very fortunate in terms of, you know, in most places you can put the gold on a plane and buy it to wherever you want and sell it wherever you want. So I'd say of all the industries, it's probably the least impacted.

speaker
Heiko Ehle
HC Mainwright

Okay. And it doesn't come up in conversation where people are like, I want to get out now or soon?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

No, no, no. Certainly we haven't had any conversations like that.

speaker
Heiko Ehle
HC Mainwright

Okay. Building on what you almost just answered a little bit, have there been rumblings of countries trying to, your words, put stuff on planes and get it out of there, make that a little bit tougher given what's going on geopolitically right now?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

In a sense of operations, I go, although I'm sure you're familiar that there's been a huge movement in stocks, particularly gold stocks out of London and into the U.S. And I believe there's some of that happening in terms of copper stocks as well. But other than that, I haven't heard any of that in other jurisdictions.

speaker
HC Mainwright Follow-up
HC Mainwright

Fair enough. That's reassuring. I'll get back to you.

speaker
Jonah
Unknown

Thank you. The next question comes from Daniel Major at UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Hi there. Thanks for the question. Can you hear me okay? Yes.

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

Great, thanks.

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

Just the first question you, I think, have partially answered already, but can you just run us through the delta, the key driver for the moderation in the guidance, 2029 versus 2028?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

sure hi daniel sandeep here um really the main adjust the main adjustment is guadalupe palmerio where you essentially you know based on the mine plan that we have right now and as paul mentioned the mine continues to be extended over time so we're we're hopeful that the mine life will continue to be extended you get a 50 drop in in geos and that's essentially the drop in 2029

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

Thank you. That's clear.

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

And then the second question, just thinking slightly bigger picture about the Spanier deal and the profile that you've provided. I mean, when we look at this kind of asset towards the upper end of the cost curve, obviously a large reserve life, but in the context of a commodity with potentially challenging longer term fundamentals, Ivanhoe has the plans to bring on the Platte Reef towards the end of the decade. How concerned are you about the longevity of production basis, the kind of cost position of the asset and the fundamental outlook for the market?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

Hi Daniel, it's Ian Gray again. Happy to meet you. In terms of the assets You know, I actually think that when you look at the cost curve, you'll see there more towards the middle, especially when you account for byproducts. Relative to the Platte Reef, you have very significant non-PGM byproducts coming out of the UG2, which Sonia is focused on. So things like chrome, iridium, ruthenium have kind of non-catalytic uses. So that stands to benefit these operations relatively. compared to some of the others. The infrastructure, this is a market that, as I'm sure are well aware, offtake of concentrate is very limited as to where it could go. Sabanier is fully integrated. A lot of these other operations, it's unclear whether they have all of the offtake or other things such as water and other key elements for production that are necessary, whereas these are you know, very much a fully integrated operation. It's going to take a lot of comfort that long term there'll be strong producers from that basket and fully integrated nature of the operations.

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

Okay, thanks. Thanks for that.

speaker
Daniel Major
UBS

And then just a final one. In the last couple of calls you've fielded questions and there's been some talk about fertilizers, potash. I see you acquired a small option from Brazil, Podash Corp. Can you give us any sense of how advanced are you in this segment of the market with other potential deals and how they rank relative to other opportunities out there?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thanks. Maybe on the strategy overall, the You know, our objective is to be the go-to gold stock, and that means always focus is on gold and precious metals. But I've always said also, sometimes you can take advantage of good opportunities in other commodities when they come along. And hence, we have had a diversified component over time. The opportunity with Brazil Potash there is for a very low entry point. We were able to get an option to ride a royalty if and when that very large project does get developed. I think it's a high likelihood it does. This is a very attractive deposit. It's very close to the huge agricultural area in Brazil. Its cost advantages in terms of logistics are very substantial. So I'm very hopeful that we'll get to exercise that option over time. Other than that, as we look at the pipeline, as usual, there's a mix of what we're looking at, precious metal and diversified, but by far the most of it is precious metal, and so I expect that's most likely what you'll see as we go forward the next number of months.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Great. Thanks so much. I'll go back in the queue.

speaker
Jonah
Unknown

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

The next question comes from Brian MacArthur at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

speaker
Brian MacArthur
Raymond James

Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions, most of them answered. But can I go back to the delta between 28 and 29? I get it, Guadalupe comes down, and I guess you're saying it's the full 25,000 ounces. But can I confirm then on the Antica pie, you talk about it cutting back in 2028. Is that at the beginning of the year, or is that partially through the year? I'm still trying to make up the difference between 28 and 29.

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, so Brian, it's partway through 28, so you'll have a full year drop in 29. So you do lose ounces from Antipokai in 2029. So between Guadalupe and Antipokai, you lose some ounces. And then on the other side, you've got Copper World, you've got Takataka. That'll pick up some of that difference.

speaker
Brian MacArthur
Raymond James

Great, thanks. And just on Candelaria while I'm at it, the stepped down from 68 to 40. Again, is that partially through the year in your assumptions in 2027 or at the beginning of the year? A partial year.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Great. Thanks very much.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. The next question comes from Tanya Yakusonek at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Oh, great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my three questions. I just wanted to follow again on this guidance, and a lot of it's been answered, but maybe what I just would like to clarify with you is that the Pomeranian last year is 2029. Mine waste solution is gone. Is there anything else that is sort of, you know, in the timeframe not contributing or is dying out over the timeframe that we should be aware of?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

From a materiality standpoint, Tanya, those are the two largest. Okay, perfect.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

And then you mentioned, I wanted to understand, what is your assumption for still water? Because as you are aware, we have quite a drop in 2025. Yeah, go ahead.

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Sorry. So still water, as the operator has guided, is 265,000 ppm ounces for 2025. We've assumed that for three years, and then it ramps back up subsequent to that.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

And back to that $500,000 or $600,000 a year range?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

$500,000. Okay.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Thank you. And then just continuing on the guidance, you mentioned the energy division is increasing over this timeframe. You used to provide guidance on what the energy contribution is. So if I think of your 2029 or 2028 guidance, we were able to see what percentage, 79, 80% gold, or even 76% gold. What would you put the energy as a percentage within your 25, 28, and 29 guidance?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

So I think for 25, we did disclose what the percentage would be energy. For 29, You know, off the top of my head, I'd say around 16, 17% of geos. Okay.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

All right. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just the final one on guidance. You mentioned that Sandy said it's going to be, you know, stronger second half. And so we understand about the Savannia deal. Obviously, there's some mine ramp-ups occurring there. How should I be thinking first half, second half? Is it a very big difference? Is it a 45, 55? And again, this assumes your price forecast and assuming them to be flat without movement in commodities. But if I think of it that way, is it a 45, 55?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Just, you know, numbers I've looked at and our budgeted assumptions, I'd say it's 47, 53.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay. And is it quarter-over-quarter improvement? Should I be thinking of it that way as well?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Second quarter will be better than Q1 just because of the timing of the Sauvignon, but I look to Q3 and Q4 not too far off from each other. Okay.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

All right, so those are my guidance questions. My second one has to do with Kobe, Panama. Just wanted to confirm again, is there any further discussions on the concentrate on site and whether that may be dealt with ahead of these decisions and or other in 2026? Maybe Paul, is there anything on the concentrate and remind me the size of this concentrate?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Tanya, there are discussions that the company has been keen to be able to move Initially, what were the remaining explosives offsite? Second is to move that concentrate offsite. They do have an agreement that they have been able to move the explosives. So discussions continue on the concentrate. It is one of the first things I'd like to get moving as the government gets more willing to discuss progress on the mine. In terms of the value of the concentrate, I think the value is in the order of $250 million.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

is the total value of the concentrate.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay. Well, that would be good if we could at least deal with the concentrate. And then just remind me again on your security on the asset. You have security at the asset level, but you do not have a parent guarantee, right? Just so that I remember this correctly.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

So our security, MPSA is the operating entity in Panama. So we are secured on the shares of MPSA, that operating entity, as when we look at all these deals, as any good bank will tell you, where you want to be is as close to the asset as possible. So very happy with the security structure that we have at Cochrane.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay, so security of the asset, but you don't have a corporate guarantee, right?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

we have undertakings up the chain that the various entities would ensure that the undertakings of MPSA are fulfilled, which is the usual sort of provisions that you would get from a corporate.

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

And maybe one thing to add, Tanya, in order to have the arbitration directly with Panama, it's very important that you're linked directly to the asset. So in a lot of cases, if you're just a corporate obligation, you wouldn't be able to avail yourself of that type of protection.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

It's one of the benefits of that structure.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

As I said, hopefully we don't get there. Hopefully all of this is resolved, which is best for everybody here. Okay, so maybe my last question, and I'll just continue on the M&A side, on the transaction side. done a lot of deals on the gold front. Potash was a smaller one. So where do we stand now on the commodity mix of the deals that you are currently looking at in the market? Maybe we can just review size-wise. Is it still the $300 to $500 million? Is that still the deal size? And are you focused now more on precious metals or have you done enough precious metals? So where are we on that mix?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

Hey, it's Ian again. So in terms of metals, I think Paul alluded earlier to the fact that we're still very much focused on precious metals. The vast majority of what we're looking at right now is precious metals. It doesn't mean that there aren't good opportunities outside of that, but in terms of just the deal flow, that's primarily what we're seeing at the moment. I think it's a good time. And in terms of the complexion of the deals, what I would really say is what you saw last year is a good reflection of kind of what we're seeing now. Last year, obviously, was also unprecedented in terms of total dollars that we deployed. Very happy about just how active we were and the investments that we made. But in terms of what they look like, very similar in terms of whether it's size or, you know, reason for doing the deals.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay. And would it also still be for development of assets? Is it still that financing option for smaller companies? Is that still the case?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

Absolutely. I think a core pillar of our business development efforts is project finance. I think we've got a strong team to do that. We're well placed with our balance sheet. So we continue to focus very much on trying to different project financing deals.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay. And then I wanted to ask you from a non-goal side, you said there could be, you know, opportunities come up. Are there opportunities in the non-goal side of your business? And if so, what sort of size of those potential transactions?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

Certainly there are opportunities that expand. a range in terms of size, but probably similar to what we've been looking at on the precious metals side, Tanya. Some are smaller, some are more medium-sized.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay, so about $300 to $500 million. Okay, and would we still continue to keep focusing on the sort of non-gold commodities that you have historically looked at, or is energy back in the game? That's, I guess, what I'm asking. Would you consider energy in that non-goal component? I know you had to put a pause button on it for a while.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

So, Tanya, as usual, the diversified strategy is all around being opportunistic rather than starting with a particular commodity. So energy is... If the right opportunity is there, we would also add we've got a better room currently, but nothing currently active.

speaker
Tanya Yakusonek
Scotiabank

Okay. Okay. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I'll let someone else. I really appreciate it. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. The next question comes from Martin Pradier at Veritas. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Pradier
Veritas

Yes, thank you for taking my question. Can you give us some precision on what you expect from Token Zinio and Valentin Gold for 2025?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So for 2025, Valentin will be ramping up in the second half of the year, so it's minimal. It's 1,500 to 2,000 geos. Token Zinio fully ramped up just over 20,000 geos. Okay, thank you.

speaker
Martin Pradier
Veritas

And I've seen a lot about the CRA and you continue having that, that it's a recurring issue. Do you expect some kind of decision in this year, this coming year?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Obviously, we're a large cap taxpayer in the view of CRA, so we are constantly audited, no different than other large cap taxpayers. Obviously, we had three audit issues outstanding, two got resolved where they dropped the reassessments. We've got the transfer pricing dispute that's ongoing. We continue to work with CRA. Would I like to resolve it this year? Absolutely. With CRA, it's just a question of timing and what their views are. So we continue to move forward, but no resolution at this time.

speaker
Martin Pradier
Veritas

Okay, but the 2013-16 or something like that, isn't that part supposed to reach a decision this year?

speaker
Sandy Parana
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so you have to... They reassessed us, we appealed, and then you have to go through a process and work your way towards a potential court date. We're working through that process. You have to go through discovery. We've done that. Now it's just a case of, you know, can you resolve it yourselves or do you end up in court? So no decision at this time.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. The next question comes from John Tumazos at John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.

speaker
John Tumazos
Very Independent Research

Congratulations on putting a billion dollars to work and for the $55 million in discovery stock to basically double in a month. Well done. If you wanted to go to the beach or fish or play golf for the rest of the year, you've done a good job for the shareholders. You earned it. In all seriousness, could you tell us your criteria in terms of minimum rate of return, gold price, or other, so in evaluating future deals to not reduce the average quality of the portfolio given some of the great deals you have in hand. And are your criteria primarily numerical, quantitative, or is qualitative geologic inference more important to you than NPV?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

John, I think you've answered the question there.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

At the end of the day, you got to be invested in good old bodies and our overall objective is to make sure that we do that and anything that we added to the portfolio is a great quality old body. Anytime we look at a deal and our board constantly reminds us of this, whatever you put in your spreadsheet, it's not going to happen. All bodies will develop and grow over time. Commodity prices will change over time. So the focus is on the quality of your bodies, getting the right ones in the portfolio. You know how we think about it, which is we're prepared to accept the low rate of return for what you can see today on those old bodies. But if you pick the ones that have got the best odds of getting bigger over time, that's really where we make our return. So the focus is What are your bodies with great economics that we can be very comfortable we're going to get our money back? And then what are we exposing ourselves to? What's the potential optionality? What's the multiple of our money that we can make if our hopes and dreams come true for the expansion of the old bodies?

speaker
John Tumazos
Very Independent Research

Thank you. In terms of the new discovery silver investment, Is it limited to exactly the land holdings bought from Newmont at closing and the existing Dome Mill? And for example, if Tony were to buy back his old company, Lakeshore Gold from Pan Am, should we assume that's excluded from your royalty?

speaker
Ian Gray
Executive

John, it's Ian here. Thank you for the kind words up front. On the discovery deal, I guess, first of all, what matters to us is relationships. And so we are very much trying to support Tony in his efforts. And as he's alluded to, to the market, he has very ambitious plans for that camp. And we want to be there to support him on those. We agreed some partnership clauses in the agreement to provide us certain rights in certain circumstances. But we are, I would say, more as a kind of commercial and relationship, very keen to help them as he looks at the one you, you know, there are many other opportunities, not just one in the area. So we're keen to help them evaluate how he may be able to maximize value for Discovery shareholders, of which, of course, we are one. So, it's an exciting opportunity for us.

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thank you.

speaker
Jonah
Unknown

Thank you. We have no further questions on the phone. I will turn the call back over to Candida Hayden.

speaker
Candida Hayden
Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

Thank you. Our first question comes from Bernie Pici at Palisade Capital Management. Additionally, Franklin, Nevada has avoided investments in certain places, Russia, China, for example. The rule of law is critical. I was surprised by your investment in Sabanier Stillwater. Africa has generally not been an area of interest for Franklin, Nevada. Can you explain this decision further?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

Thanks for the question there. Our objective is to be a low-risk way that investors can Invest in the industry, gold, and the benefit of exploration upside. The approach geopolitically is you've got to make sure that most of your assets are in great countries, and we're blessed to have so many assets, Canada, US, Australia. There are a lot of other good mining countries in the world, and so we're also exposed in Chile, Peru, Brazil. We do have assets in West Africa, and we have had assets in South Africa. In particular, for many years, we've had an interest in mine waste. It wasn't planned this way, but actually the mine waste deal has ended. It was about 20,000 plus ounces a year in geos, and we were able to do the Spaniard deal, similar amount over the long term. So our exposure to South Africa is about the same as it was previously. South Africa is different from much of Africa. It is a very well-developed mining economy. It's got a long history. It's got a good labor force, good suppliers, and it does have a good rule of law, I suppose, for mining. So in terms of the amount of exposure that we've got, roughly the 500 million are comfortable in putting that in South Africa. It does have its risks and its political risks. I actually think it's on the uptake in recent years. You had the change in government. The ANC is still leading it, but for the first time it's a government of national unity, and I think that's put some checks and balance on the ANC, and there is a good level of optimism in-country that there's a change in direction in terms of the quality of government management. I think you've seen very practical results in terms of a turnaround in the power situation and also real good results on the ground. in terms of improving the transportation infrastructure. So quite happy with that investment in South Africa. I think it's going to do us well over time.

speaker
Candida Hayden
Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

Our next question is also from Bernie Pichi at Palisade Capital Management. When you say there's 250 million of concentrate on site at Cobra Panama that you and First Quantum would like to move, how much of that is yours versus First Quantum's?

speaker
Paul Brink
President and CEO

I haven't done the The math recently depends on what the gold price is at the time, obviously, but roughly the value there that we are due to receive is 15 to 20 million.

speaker
Candida Hayden
Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

Thank you, Paul. There are no further questions from the webcast. This concludes our 2024 year-end results conference call and webcast. We will host our investor day on Tuesday, March 25th, 2025. The in-person presentation will be hosted at the Lumi Experience Center in Toronto at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. The presentation will also be available to view virtually. Registration details are available on our website. We expect to release our first quarter 2025 results after market close on May 8th, with the conference call held the following morning. Thank you for your interest in Franco, Nevada. Goodbye.

speaker
Conference Moderator
Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-