GATX Corporation

Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to today's GATX Corporation third quarter earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Once again, star one. And if you'd like to withdraw your question, simply hit star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Sherry Hellerman, Head of Investor Relations. Sherry, please go ahead.

Thank you, Greg. Good morning, and thank you for joining GATX's 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Call. I'm joined today by Bob Lyons, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tom Ellman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, Some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of four looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from those statements or forecasts. For more information, please refer to the risk factors included in our earnings release and those discussed in GATX's Form 10-K for 2023 and our other filings with the SEC. GATX assumes no obligation to update or revise any four looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Earlier today, GATX reported 2024 third quarter net income of $89 million, or $2.43 per diluted share. This compares to 2023 third quarter net income of $52.5 million, or $1.44 per diluted share. The 2024 third quarter results include a net negative impact of $2.5 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, from tax adjustments and other items. Year-to-date 2024 net income was $207.7 million, or $5.68 per diluted share. This compares to $193.2 million, or $5.30 per diluted share for the same period in 2023. The 2024 year-to-date results include a net negative impact of $9.9 million, or $0.27 per diluted share from tax adjustments and other items. The 2023 year-to-date results include a net negative impact of $1.1 million, or $0.03 per diluted share from tax adjustments and other items. These items are detailed in the supplemental information section of our earnings release. And now I'll briefly address each of our business segments. At Rail North America, fleet utilization was 99.3% at the end of the quarter, and our renewal success rate remained high at 82% in the quarter. The renewal rate change of GATX's lease price index was positive 26.6% for the quarter, and the average renewal term was 59 months. Rail North America continues to experience strong demand for the majority of car types in our existing fleet. Absolute lease rates for many car types remain at historically high levels, and we continue to take advantage of the favorable lease rate environment by lengthening these terms. The secondary market for rail cars in North America remain robust. Rail North America's remarketing income was over $43 million during the quarter. bringing total remarketing income for the year to over $96 million, which is essentially our full year expectation. While we're always active in the secondary market, any fourth quarter remarketing activity will likely be modest in size and very opportunistic. In addition to placing deliveries of new rail cars under our committed supply agreement, we also acquired over 1,000 rail cars in the spot and secondary markets, There are long-term leases with attractive rates. Rail North America's year-to-date investment volume was over $955 million. Turning to Rail International, GATX Rail Europe and GATX Rail India performed well as expected. We continue to experience increases in renewal lease rates versus the expiring rates for many car types. Additionally, we continue to take delivery of new cars in Europe and India, adding a combined total of nearly 900 cars during the third quarter. Year to day, Rail International's investment volume was over $190 million. Within engine leasing, our joint ventures with Rolls-Royce and our wholly owned aircraft engines portfolio are both performing very well. driven by continuing strong demand for global passenger air travel. At RRPF, year-to-date investment volume totaled approximately $500 million, reflective of the joint venture's focus on growth. Additionally, GATX added four aircraft spare engines to our wholly owned portfolio for approximately $95 million in the quarter. Our year-to-date direct engine investment volume was over $166 million. Finally, as we mentioned in earnings release, reflecting current market conditions and our year-to-date performance, we've updated our 2024 full-year earnings guidance to a range of 750 to 770 per doula share, excluding any impact from tax adjustments and other items. And those are our prepared remarks. I'll hand it back to the operator so we can open it up for Q&A.

Thanks, Sherry. And at this time, I would like to remind everyone that in order to ask a question, again, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Once again, star 1. And we will pause just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. And it looks like our first question today comes from Bascom Majors with Susquehanna International Group. Bascom, please go ahead.

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The guidance increase at the low end there, I realize it's not massive, but could you walk us back to how you defined the year originally, breaking it down by some items, and let us know maybe what puts and takes there have been in your original outlook that led to that nine months later? Thank you.

Yep, Bascom, this is Tom. If you go back and take a look at the January earnings call transcript, You'll see where Bob kind of walked through segment by segment and then went into some more detail in various areas about how we saw the year coming out. And if you compare that to what you actually see for the third quarter, in almost every area, it's going to be right on. The one area that's a little bit different is remarketing gains at Rail North America that Sherry alluded to. And that really is the key driver for taking up the low end of the guidance range. The rest of Rail North America, whether you look at revenue, net maintenance, interest cost, those are all on a year-to-date basis very similar with that guidance we laid out. Same with Rail International, same with the engine leasing business. So really the area of variance comes down to that one piece.

Thank you for that. And maybe to that point, at least in public equity investor circles, there's been some concern that that particular level of P&L from gains is unsustainable longer term, but that concern's been around for two and a half years. And certainly if we talk to you guys or other people in the markets, no one's really noting a change in the supply demand and profit dynamics of that marketplace. Can you talk a little bit through how you feel about the durability of the attractive secondary market that you're able to sell into, and maybe some comments on the market specifically, and then to maybe the assets you think you're able to supply the market, maybe companies specifically as well, just so we can understand kind of how that might shape over the next two or three years. Thank you.

If I ask him, it's Bob Lyons. I'll take that one. And I'd go back a couple years ourselves here and say when we were looking at an environment where interest rates were likely going to be moving higher, we also were somewhat uncertain about what kind of an impact that might have in the secondary market. A lot of the buyers of rail cars in the secondary market, they run the gamut from other large leasing entities to smaller privately owned leasing companies. And so we weren't quite sure how the rising interest rate environment, what impact it would have on some of those buyers. So we were a bit cautious too, but fast forward two years, you know, we're now, it appears to be on the backside of that rising rate environment and one where rates have either stabilized or on their way down. And demand has remained very robust. And I would say that's across the breadth and depth of the buyers that we sell to. And it's a lengthy list. You know, we put assets out for sale in the secondary market. There's probably anywhere between 20 or 30 different entities that would be interested in receiving those offering memorandums, those sale packages. We participate as well. We're a big buyer of rail cars in the secondary market, so we have our fingers on the pulse on both sides. And the market's really healthy. Now, what appeals to the buyers, I think potentially what's unique about GATX is the diversity of the portfolios we can put into the market because we have 160 different plus types of rail cars, 400 or 500 different types of customers, different commodities. And our customer base is very high quality. So when we put assets for sale in the secondary market, buyers are looking at the fact that there's always a lease attached. And it's four, five, six, seven years. And it's with a very good credit. There's a comfort level there. And I think an experience level for a lot of our buyers that they know what they're getting when they buy assets from GATX. quality customers, quality asset, and a well-structured lease. That would be my take on the secondary market, but in general, very robust.

Maybe to focus on from the supply side, are you getting to a point where you're happy and content with the makeup of your North American fleet or, you know, is this a well that GTX can keep drawing from, you know, a year or two down the road if the market does remain as attractive as it is today?

Well, I think that with 110,000 plus car fleet and a supply agreement and a very active program of buying assets in the secondary market, the well is pretty deep. It's very deep. And I look even at this year, flipping it around, secondary market as a buyer. You know, half of our investment volume year-to-date at Rail North America has been in the spot new car market and in the secondary market. So we're either buying new cars directly from the builders on a spot basis, or we're in the secondary market buying. So we're adding to the fleet through a number of different avenues. And we don't get overly focused on fleet size. So it's not like we have a goal of let's get to 130,000 cars or 140,000 cars. We want to generate the best risk adjusted return we can for the shareholder. That's priority number one. And so we'll opportunistically add cars to the fleet, but the economics have to work. And there's ample opportunity right now to do that.

And Baskin, just to put some numbers to some of those gains over time. So if you go back 15 years or so, you'll see that on average, we had $65 million a year or so of gains on sales at Rail North America. And during that period of time, the low year was 2020, the first year of COVID, which was almost $40 million that year. So to your point about the sustainability, clearly there's a track record that they're material gains, kind of in all markets.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Thanks, Bascom. And our next question comes from the line of Brendan McCarthy with Sudoti. Brendan, please go ahead.

Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions here. I just wanted to follow up on the remarketing income side. It sounds like, you know, obviously, broadly speaking, demand remains robust, as you mentioned. But what kind of underpins your expectations for a more modest turnout looking ahead to Q4?

Yeah, Brendan, it's Bob Lyons. You know, we came into the year expecting anywhere between 90 and 100 million of remarketing income. I think we're already in the mid-90s, 96. So the vast majority of the The assets we kind of had circled for potential sale this year have been sold. So, you know, we'll continue to be in the market in the fourth quarter opportunistically, but no significant plans for sale. And a lot of times the buyers of our assets, they have a capital program as well. So they have allocated dollars coming into each year that they're going to use to buy assets in the secondary market. And historically, what we've seen is a lot of times you get into the fourth quarter and those capital programs are winding down for the year and then get refreshed in January. So it's just kind of the cadence of both buy and sell side.

Got it. That makes sense. So you've seen, you know, historic seasonality there, just the lower level in Q4 in past years.

It's hard to pinpoint it exactly because you could have a couple of transactions that generate a sizable gain. Maybe the volume isn't there, but the gain is larger in Q4, so it's a little bit difficult to predict. But in general, whether it's buy side or sell side, the pace of activity does tend to slow a little bit in Q4. Understood.

Understood. Wanted to turn to the RRPF earnings. It looked like a really strong quarter there. I think it doubled from the second quarter of 2024. Can you talk about the trends there and what drove the strong results?

Yeah, so at RRPF, the joint venture with Rolls-Royce, it's been a good year, but consistent with my comments early on, very much in line with our expectations coming into the year. We expected lease rates to improve. We expected to have more engines on lease. For example, the portfolio from Q3 a year ago to Q3 now has gone from 395 engines to 415 engines, so 20 additional engines at higher rates. That's really what's driving the improvement, but again, very much in line with our expectations.

Okay. Sorry if I miss this, but do you happen to have the breakdown between remarketing income there and lease revenue?

Yep. So for the quarter, it was about 50-50. And year-to-date, it's about two-thirds, one-third operating income versus remarketing.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. I just wanted to look at the rail North America fleet more broadly speaking. I think this is a number we've talked about in the past, but You know, what kind of runway can we look at, you know, when you look at the rail North American fleet, how much of that has been repriced at these higher lease rate levels? I guess my question is how much of the fleet is kind of due to be repriced higher at this point in time?

Yeah, Brendan, if you think about where the lease rate environment has gone over the course of the last, you know, seven or eight years, 2016 to 2021, it was a negative. you know, a real challenging environment. 22, it started to turn positive. So if you kind of look at the number of renewals we do in a given year, it's about half, roughly, that have repriced and about half yet to go.

Great, great. That's very helpful. Thanks, everybody. That's all from me.

Thank you. Great. Thanks, Brendan. And just a reminder folks again if you'd like to ask a question star one on your telephone keypad once again star one and our next question comes from the line of justin burgner with cabelli funds justin please go ahead.

Good morning, Bob morning Tom good morning sherry.

morning morning.

Could you comment on sequential lease rates.

Sure. So, you know, as we've noted in recent quarters, Justin, in general, the rates have flattened out, albeit at very high levels. And the pricing environment overall remains very favorable, high utilization, high renewal success rate. 2Q to 3Q, we did see a very small downtick in absolute lease rates, like very low single digits. And I'd say, you know, in my view, that's not unexpected to see some small movement, either positive or negative, in an environment where rates have generally leveled off at high levels. You know, I'd also add, we touched on this a little bit previously, but a key positive catalyst right now impacting the lease pricing environment is the supply side of the rail car sector. You know, pricing's in a good place partly due to the positive dynamics at work in the supply side. You know, we're not seeing significant overbuilding or speculative orders, and those points have really been at the center of what has caused major rate swings in the past. And also with the supply side stable, when we have seen some degree of oversupply in a particular car type, it self-corrects pretty quickly through scrapping. So overall, we're very encouraged by where we're at in the rate environment.

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. Second question would be, as it relates to RRPF, you know, when all is said and done for the year, do you expect, you know, continuing asset sales in the joint venture to kind of get you back to the historical mix of operating versus disposition earnings for that JV?

Yeah, so Justin, Over time, you can certainly calculate an average. But if you looked at the individual years, it can vary quite a bit year to year. But what you've seen year to date, it's probably a fair guess to be It'll be closer to that 50-50 by the time we're done for the year than the two-thirds, one-third we're at now. But calling the exact amount is hard. Just like at Rail North America, the timing of when those transactions occur, it's hard to get overly precise.

Gotcha. And then, I mean, with respect to that long-term average, though, like on a multi-year basis, There's nothing that would have changed to make it more operating earnings versus disposition earnings kind of looking out on a multi-year basis, is there?

So on the margin, the answer would be yes, because the fleet size is getting bigger. But that takes a while for that to materially change.

Fundamentally, the fleet's getting larger at better rates. while we're achieving very attractive returns on those investments. But as Tom said, that takes a while to bleed into the portfolio.

Got it. Lastly, if I could just ask about Rail International, I mean, the profitability seems very healthy this quarter compared to last quarter and the prior year. Anything specific going on? Is this sort of a higher level of sustained profitability, or are there some one-offs that helped the third quarter?

No material one-offs. It continued very good performance both at GATX Rail Europe and at GATX India. The economic environment in Europe is a bit more challenging, but the team there is doing an excellent job keeping cars utilized and achieving rate increases for the vast majority of the fleet. Intermodal remains a bit of a challenge spot there. It's not a big part of the fleet, but it's the one that has held utilization back a little bit. But overall, just very good performance, very good cost control. And in India, putting a lot of new wagons to work in a market that just continues to grow pretty dramatically.

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Thanks, Justin.

Thank you, Justin. And it looks like we've got another question from Bascom Majors with Susquehanna International Group. Bascom, please go ahead.

Thank you for the follow up. Just two questions. How far are you through repricing the North American fleet at call it 22 or later levels and just high level? I know you haven't gotten through your budgeting period yet. But any puts and takes as we think about setting expectations for 2025? Thank you.

Yeah, Baskin, it's Bob. It's about half, roughly, that is renewed since the pricing environment shifted to the positive side in 2022. So about half to go. And with regards to 2025, you know, we'll come back, obviously, in January with a full outline and segment by segment run through and some of the key line items. So we'll do that again for you in January. But in general, I'd say we're very encouraged by the environment we're in right now. You know, the pricing environment, lease pricing environment in Rail North America remains in a real good spot. And as long as we don't see any irrational behavior on the supply side, we would expect that to continue. And if you look at GATX overall, roughly 55%, 60% of our total segment profit is in North America and the balance is in international markets. So our international businesses continue to grow. And we like the position we're in in all of those. And the recovery in engine leasing has been More dramatic than probably anybody anticipated just a few years ago, but it's a testament to our team at RRPF and the folks at Rolls-Royce who have partnered with us. We partner with them, and they've done an excellent job managing that portfolio, so we feel good about that as well.

Thank you.

All right. Thanks, Bascom. And one last call out for questions. Once again, star one on your telephone keypad. Once again, star one. Going once. Going twice. Alright, doesn't look like we have any further questions, so I will now turn the call back over to Sherry Hellerman. Sherry, the floor is yours.

I'd like to thank everyone for their participation on the call this morning. Please contact me with any follow up questions. Thank you.

Thanks, Sherry, and ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect. Have a good day, everyone.