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spk00: You may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. With that, I have the pleasure of handing over to your host, founder and CEO of GFL Environmental, Patrick DiVici. Please go ahead, Patrick.
spk04: Thank you, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the third quarter and updating our outlook for the remainder of the year. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through our forward-looking disclaimer before we get into details.
spk08: Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. We have prepared a presentation to accompany this call that is also available on our website. During this call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments, or otherwise. This call will include the discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and U.S. securities regulators. I will now turn the call back over to Patrick, who will start off on page three of the presentation.
spk04: Thank you, Luke. Once again, the tremendous strength of our business and the effectiveness of our growth strategy drove performance in excess of expectations. The capabilities of the leading asset base we've assembled, coupled with our rigorous discipline around capital deployment, continue to drive exceptional high-quality growth that we believe will lead to industry-leading free cash flow generation and equity value creation. The headline numbers for the quarter were Revenue was up 43%, adjusted EBITDA up 48%, solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins up 110 basis points. Even more impressive than the headline numbers on their own are the underlying driving factors. Solid waste pricing continued to accelerate and was 4.3% for the quarter, 20 basis points ahead of plan. As we said in Q2, Our proactive approach to pricing earlier in the year has allowed us to stay ahead of the broad-based contemplation we're seeing in the business. I know there's a lot of talk about labor pressures in the market, and while that's clearly real and happening, our job is to manage through that. A couple of things that we think have helped us do our job. The majority of our operations are in secondary markets, and our experience is that the labor pressures in those markets have not seen as acute as as they have in urban areas, and wage inflation in those markets. Especially in Canada, that is really just one large secondary market, except for a few pockets, which has been lower. Also, our brand. We cannot underestimate in today's climate that the employees want to be part of a company like GFL. So we find that we are able to attract a strong pool of talent to our brand. At the same time, operating in the current labor market is more expensive, and that's where pricing has come in. We proactively used pricing to cover the incremental cost pressures, and while our results to date have been exceptional, we're even more encouraged by the pricing opportunities we see on the horizon, particularly as it relates to CPI-linked revenue resets and the return of pricing on attractive commercial volume in many of our slower-to-reopen Canadian markets. Solid waste volume growth was also ahead of plan at 2.4%. U.S. volumes were high twos with particular strength in our Midwest markets. Canadian volumes saw a 2% increase despite ongoing restrictions in many markets through most of Q3. We think this delayed Canadian dynamics should set up with a tailwind in 2022. As the remaining restrictions are lifted, we anticipate realizing volume recoveries in Canada like we saw in the U.S. throughout 2021. Commodity values once again provided a tailwind, and the overall strength of our recycling business, coupled with changing regulatory landscape, continues to support our favorable outlook on the opportunity set within this line of business. Solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins were 31.7%, a 110 basis point increase over the prior period, despite a drag from recent M&A. Luke will walk through the components of the margin walk, but substantially all the margin expansion is organic. Realizing pricing in excess of our internal cost of inflation, focus on cost controls, productivity and the real operating leverage from our Tuck and M&A program continues to drive margin and we remain optimistic on the speed which we will be able to realize our stated margin targets. Finally, liquid and infrastructure continue to show recovery during the quarter despite the slower than anticipated reopening activity in Canada where the bulk of this revenue is derived. Both segments had significant sequential margin expansion over the second quarter as we saw operating leverage associated with the volume recovery. The earlier than anticipated closing of tariff here significantly increased liquid waste revenue during the quarter. But as expected, it was realized that a dilutive adjusted EBITDA margin, offsetting the substantial organic margin expansion in the base business. The third quarter also saw us continue to pursue other strategies for value creation. Year-to-date, we deploy approximately $2.2 billion into 37 acquisitions to acquire approximately $735 million in annualized revenues, more than 2.5 times the amount we suggested at the beginning of the year. Our pipeline continues to be robust, and incremental transactions will likely be completed prior to year-end. We think our approach to M&A continues to establish us as an acquirer of choice in certain markets, and when coupled with our rigorous focus on returns on invested capital, this will lead to outsized value creation opportunities as we move into the future. We also continued our capital redeployment strategy, realizing an incremental $95 million of proceeds from the disposal of non-core low-contribution solid waste assets in the Midwest, bringing total proceeds proceeds realized for the year to approximately $155 million, nearly twice our stated target at the beginning of the year. We've identified a whole host of high return opportunities to deploy this capital and anticipate being able to reinvest more than half of these proceeds before year end. Our strategy for deploying this capital includes investments that support our sustainability strategy. like advanced sorting technologies that we are installing at our MRS that drive operating efficiencies and improve material recovery rates. Our continuing investments in automated side loaders and onboard safe driving technologies support our strategies to attract and retain drivers. These are early days for many of these investments, and we expect to see them paying off longer term and achieving our targeted margin expansion. And finally, we continue to work on our balance sheet. Our highly successful most offering and 50 basis point rate improvement on our credit facility during the quarter demonstrate the continued support we have on our institutional debt investors, a group whose trust we've built over many years of successful execution. We will continue to leverage our ever-improving credit quality to reduce our cost of capital, drive incremental free cash flow, and create equity value. When you put it all together, the quality of the results of the quarter combined with our favorable outlook support us raising our guidance for the second time this year. I'll pass it to Luke who will walk through the details, but our guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow are all being raised. And although we're going to wait until February before providing 2022 guidance, effectively the launch-off point for 2022 also increases and sets us up for revenue growth of better than 15% and adjusted free cash flow growth well in excess of 20%. I will now pass the call over to Luke, who will walk us through the details of the financial results, and then I'll share some closing perspectives before we wrap up and turn it over back to the operator for questions.
spk08: Thanks, Patrick. I'll pick up on page four of the presentation. Revenue increased over 43% compared to the prior year period. This was ahead of our July guidance and driven by outperformance across solid waste pricing, volume, commodity prices, and contribution from M&A. Infrastructure organic growth turned positive for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, and liquid waste benefited from the TerraPure acquisition effectively closing two months earlier than anticipated. Similar to our comments on the recovery of solid waste volumes in Canada, we expect improving strength in the recovery of both of these segments as restrictions in Canada continue to ease. On page 5, you'll see adjusted EBITDA for Q3 of $415.8 million at a margin of 28%, an increase of 90 basis points over the prior period and up 110 basis points sequentially over Q2. We're particularly pleased with this result when considering the backdrop of rising labor and input cost inflation, as well as the reintroduction of certain discretionary costs, such as travel and entertainment, incentive compensation, and certain professional fees that were all a headwind to a margin. Solid waste margins of 31.7% were 110 basis points ahead of the prior comparable period, and 80 basis points up sequentially over Q2. 100 basis points of the margin expansion was organic and driven by our pricing programs and operating leverage on volume recovery. Commodity pricing was a 90 basis point tailwind, but this was substantially offset by a 70 basis point drag from tool prices and a 10 basis point headwind from M&A. Liquid waste margins increased 50 basis points sequentially over Q2 and nearly 300 basis points organically over the prior year period before considering the margin dilutive impact of the contribution from TerraPure in the quarter. Over 85% of TerraPure revenue is currently reported in our liquid waste segment, with allocations between the segments to be revised in 2022. TerraPure's liquid waste revenue came in just below mid-20s margin, but we continue to see a path to bring that up to the segment average. Infrastructure and soil margins improved 190 basis points sequentially from Q2 and 90 basis points period over period as volumes turned positive and we were able to leverage the relatively fixed cost structure of the segment. On page 6, you can see adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $250 million, inclusive of $95 million of proceeds from our asset sale. Once again, we're including these excess proceeds in our adjusted free cash flow REC as we intend to redeploy most of these dollars before the end of the year, and therefore these proceeds, or a portion thereof, will be used to offset the over and above growth capital we expect to deploy before year end. While there will be some lumpiness from quarter to quarter, the annual pre-cash flow reconciliation will include a normalized level of capital expenditures for the business. During the quarter, we've normalized for $35 million of working capital related to recent M&A, which we believe is better characterized as part of the purchase price. Note that an inaugural holiday in Canada on September 30th impacted working capital by approximately $15 million as compared to the prior year. Turning to page seven, as previously announced, we were once again successful in accessing the debt capital markets to raise capital at attractive coupons and amended our credit facility to, among other things, tighten the borrowing rate by 50 basis points, all consistent with our strategy of leveraging our ever-improving credit quality to drive the lower cost of the debt. During the quarter, we deployed approximately $1.1 billion into 14 acquisitions, and post-quarter end, we deployed an incremental $900 million for another eight acquisitions. Net of the contribution of one business sold as part of a divestiture, we expect to generate annualized revenues of approximately $735 million from these acquisitions. We anticipate approximately $450 million of this rolling over into 2022, and this amount would further increase to the extent there's any incremental M&A completed before the end of the year. As anticipated, net leverage at quarter end modestly stepped up with the acquisition of Terrapure. The cash on hand at quarter end was largely used to fund the M&A in October, and we continue to have ample liquidity to support our growth goals. Additionally, during the quarter, we entered a definitive agreement which gives us the right to issue up to an aggregated amount of $300 million U.S. of preferred shares before the end of the year. We will draw on this equity commitment as needed to allow us to continue executing our growth strategy while maintaining our previously stated leverage targets. On page 8, we're showing the drivers of our updated guidance. For the year, we're now expecting revenue of $5.4 billion, $150 million increase over the guidance we provided in July when measuring midpoint to midpoint. The components are laid out on the page, but the growth comes from price, volume, and M&A contribution, all exceeding our previously communicated expectations. For the year, we're now expecting pricing at four and a quarter and volume in the mid twos, both about 25 basis points higher than our July guidance and an encouraging launch off point for 2022. From this revenue, we expect adjusted EBITDA of 1440 to 1450, a 37.5 million increase over July's guidance, again, measured midpoint to midpoint. In terms of CapEx, Recall, the guide at the beginning of the year was a base capex of $510 million. With the first half growth of the business, we increased this to $525 million in July, and are now increasing to $540 in line with the outsized growth of the business. On top of this number, we guided on the opportunity to redeploy proceeds from asset disposals into attractive growth opportunities. Our original guidance for this opportunity was $50 to $100 million of incremental spend. As of today, we think we'll be at the high end or more of this range, a terrific outcome as this investment will drive high-quality incremental growth in 2022. Now, all of this incremental spend was being covered by the proceeds from asset disposals. So although there would be a gross CapEx number of $640, the $540 plus $100, the net CapEx would remain at the $540. We've been extremely successful in our portfolio rationalization program, realizing 170 million of proceeds to date from asset disposals and asset divesters, with the possibility to realize more before the year is done. Including 100% of these proceeds in our year-end adjusted free cash flow reconciliation would yield a net capex number of 470 and effectively overstate our free cash flow for the year. So at year-end, we'll include an adjustment to exclude excess proceeds from disposal. and normalized the net CapEx number to somewhere around 540. On working capital, the new guide has us going to a use of approximately 35 to 40 million as compared to nil in the original July guide. This is over and above the M&A-related working capital investment. And all of this yields an adjusted pre-cash flow of $525 to $530 million, a $10 to $15 million increase over July's guide, despite the incremental $50 million investment in CapEx and working capital. We're not going to specifically walk through Q4, but you can do the math and see the implied results at the midpoint is approximately $1.415 billion of revenue at 26.1% adjusted EBITDA margin, a 90 basis point increase over the prior year. This is based on pricing of low fours and volume of half a point to a point, both above our July guidance. From a modeling perspective, I think many continue to underestimate the expense of seasonality in the business, and therefore there's a recalibration of dollars between Q3 and Q4. For Q4 implied free cash flow, the normalized CapEx dynamic I just spoke to complicates the simple full year, less year-to-date math. The Q3 year-to-date adjusted free cash flow number of 512 is inclusive of excess proceeds from disposals. Excluding $70 million of these proceeds from the 512 and then bridging to the full year number will give a better picture of Q4 on a standalone basis. And lastly, while we're not going to provide our guidance for 2022 until we meet again in February, where we're already sitting with nearly 8.5% top line growth from rollover and we anticipate the constructive macro backdrop to support organic price and volume of better than 6%, So as Patrick mentioned, there's a clear path to 15% plus top line growth before considering anything incremental to what we have today. With that, I will turn the call back over to Patrick.
spk04: Thanks, Luke. As we continue to deliver on the roadmap we've laid out for the business since the IPO, we are also focused on advancing our sustainability initiatives. Consistent with the commitment that we made in Q1 last year to improve the diversity of our board, we announced today that our second female director, Jessica McDonald, will be joining the board as our seventh independent director in February of next year. Jessica's appointment to our board is part of our broader commitment to promote greater participation of women across our organization through our Women in Waste program. With the COP26 summit this week focusing the world's attention on the need to move to a lower carbon future, we have never been in a better position to provide the services that will help us achieve that goal, including through our recycling initiatives and the development of renewable natural gas projects in our landfill. On our last call, we told you that we had set up GFL Renewables as our vehicle to unlock significant value in landfill gas to energy projects and to accelerate the conversion of our fleet to CNG. We continue to make significant progress on this initiative and in the quarter expect to announce projects at a number of our landfills prior to year end. Demonstrating our growing recognition as a leader in sustainability, next week GFL will be participating in Vision 2045 to share our vision for a greener future with 50 other business leaders from around the world. All of GFL's achievements that Luke and I have talked about today are a reflection of the incredible hard work and dedication of all of our employees. It is our employees' dedication and passion to achieve our vision to be green for life that allows us to continue to deliver quarter over quarter on our commitment to build long-term value for all of our stakeholders. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for questions.
spk00: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, you can press star followed by 2 to cancel your request. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Tyler Brown of Raymond James. Tyler, your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk11: Yeah. Hey, good morning, guys. Can you guys hear me? Oh, sorry. Hey, just real quick, can you guys just reset us on how much of your new $5.4 billion revenue base is tied to CPI and just any color on how that breaks down between the U.S. and Canada?
spk08: Yeah, so round numbers, Tyler, if you think today, there's about a billion dollars now that all the recent M&A is sort of rolling into base. That's what a CPI linked, and that's roughly – 90, 85, 90% is in your residential line and the rest is, you know, on post-collection. So you have roughly a billion dollars that about 40% of which will reset in Q1. Then Q2 is pretty low. You got sort of 10%. And then Q3 is another big reset. So from a cadence through the year, that's how you think about how the timing in which that hits. And then when you look, that's about roughly, I'd say 75% in the U.S. and balance again, maybe 70-30. Okay.
spk11: Okay. Yeah, very helpful. And then I know it's a little early. Pricing's been strong. I think it accelerated sequentially. But when you think about that 22, 6% price plus volume organic revenue expectation, how do you kind of envision that being composed? Is it just 4% price, 2% volume, or does it feel that the price could be a bigger part of that mix?
spk08: I mean, pre-COVID, as you know, Tyler, we were saying we're at a 3.5% to 4% price, and we're going to migrate to the top end of the range. I think when you look at the backdrop today with CPI, I mean, if you're moving that billion dollars from the typical sort of 2%, you're moving that up to 3, 4, somewhere higher, you know, with a little bit of incremental support on the commercial and post-collection lines, I think you can add 100 basis points to that pricing number pretty easy. So maybe now in that sort of 4.5 to 5 range going into next year. So I think as the quarter and year plays out and we see those resets and the overall continued acceleration of pricing, we'll have a better view in February. But I think it's something better than four. And, you know, just how much better, you know, you'll have to give us a couple months before we come back to you.
spk11: Okay. All right. I can do that. And then just my last one here. So, Patrick, I mean, obviously acquiring revenues has been a big part of the story. But it is interesting to see all the divestitures. Obviously, it happens time to time for everybody. But how should we think about your divestiture program? Is this something that's a bit more one-off? Or do you have a process where we're going to see this kind of year in and year out and just kind of churning the assets? I'm just kind of curious. Big picture there.
spk04: No. I mean, I think we identified when we acquired some of these businesses of markets that, you know, I think were not overly strategic to us, and these assets were of a higher and better use for some, you know, local players that could do something better with the assets that I think effectively we could. I mean, from our perspective, you know, if it doesn't work strategically and we're not going to go into a specific market to sort of build it, and I'm more focused on, you know, if you look at where we've divested these assets, it's been largely sort of around urban markets. you know, where there's a lot of competition. And, you know, in some of these markets, I don't think the market needs another, needs a fifth player, right? If you've got three at a large strategic plus a big regional player, I mean, what's GFL going to add to that? So I think it just makes sense for us to exit and focus those dollars and redeploy them into a certain market. I think by and large, you know, I think over the course of the next 12 months, we should have the entire book rationalized to a point where we feel, comfortable with the base that we have.
spk11: Okay. Okay. That's very helpful. Okay. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys.
spk00: Thank you, Tyler. Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Walter.
spk02: Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Perhaps we could start I think it was Luke, maybe it was you, Patrick, that mentioned TerraPure on the margins of 20%, certainly lower than what you've done before, but you indicated that you hope to get it up to the average. Can you give us some indication as to what type of initiatives are you going to do to get that up to the average and how quickly that would occur? Do you think it'll be front-end loaded or whether it's a little longer duration?
spk08: Yeah, so Walter, it's Lou speaking. The comment I made was specifically talking about the liquid waste walk. So recall, TerraPure is part liquid waste, part solid. The solid components are extremely high margin. And so the underwritten pro forma for TerraPure, I think, was about a 28% margin. When you break that out, you had a liquid business, you know, large landfill that was sort of high 30s, pushing 40. And then the liquid waste component was sort of lower 20. So the comment in the prepared remarks was that the liquid waste revenue came in at the sort of low, just below mid-20s, which is right in line with expectation. And the solid waste, which is in the other 15% of revenues in our solid segment, that came in at the sort of high 30s, and that was actually accretive to Canadian solid waste margins. So TerraCure is right in line with where we anticipated it being. I think the... liquid waste component of the business, as we rationalize those facilities and harvest the synergies and opportunities we expected, you'll see the TerraCure liquid component become neutral to accretive to our existing liquid waste segment, and the solid component is already accretive.
spk02: Okay, that's great. And in terms of your capital plan, obviously you've done a lot of acquisitions so far, and you're getting a better sense of the condition of some of the assets you're buying. Can you give us a bit of a peek into next year's capital program? Is there any reason, based on now that you've had a chance to review, that we would see any major change in cadence for CapEx? in 2022, or would you consider it kind of consistent with the growth in your business and the growth in the acquisitions that you've seen historically?
spk04: I think it'll be, Walter, it'll be consistent with what you've seen this year. I mean, we'll look opportunistically as, you know, we talked about the question with Tyler, if there's some proceeds that continue to rationalization, take those dollars and redeploy them into markets where we see opportunities, you know, to develop some post-collection operations or, you or redeploying those capitals into new municipal contracts throughout the Midwest in some of these business units where we only acquired sort of commercial from low businesses and landfills. So, you know, nothing out of the ordinary and I think very consistent with what you saw this year.
spk02: Okay, perfect. And this last question here, when we looked at free cash flow and the cadence there, we kind of looked at high 600s into next year. Anything that would change that now that we're a little closer to 2022, or is that the kind of ballpark that you'd indicated before? Is that the kind of ballpark that we should be considering for next year?
spk04: Yeah, I think that's the right zip code. I mean, I think from our expectations, that's today. Most likely, I think from our perspective, we'll be working on making that number better. But I think from where we sit today, that's the right zip code to be in.
spk02: That's awesome. Okay, congrats on a great quarter, guys. Thank you very much.
spk04: Thanks, Walter.
spk00: Our next question today comes from Hamza Mazzari of Jefferies. Hamza, your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hey, good morning. My first question is just on the renewables and landfill to gas strategy. You know, just remind us how big that could be again. I think you quantified it previously, but maybe some more detail. You know, are these equity stakes you're going to take? Are you going to own the whole thing? How do the projects ramp? You know, is it all rain exposure or a fixed price offtake? Maybe it's too early there to talk about, but just talk about just a little more detail around that strategy.
spk04: Yeah, so I think we've mentioned previously, Honza, that we have about 18 landfills that will form part of this program. Our initial focus is on the first five to six. Our expectation is that we will sign definitive agreements on five of them prior to year end, and then on the sixth one, sometime in, you know, early Q1. I think when you look at it, you know, the number we put out initially was sort of in the $75 to $100 million of free cash flow that will get generated from, you know, the 18 projects. I think that number is conservative from what we're seeing today. You know, we'll stick by that, but I think from our perspective, it is. I think We expected to have those probably signed right around this time, but it's taking a little bit longer. I mean, these are 20-year agreements that we're committing to, and I think we're just taking the time to make sure we effectively get them right. I think to your question on what happens with the fuel, I mean, as everyone knows, this is an evolving market, and I think all of us as landfill operators, you know, have a goal at the moment. This is a fuel that everybody wants. And, you know, historically a big focus on the transportation market to sell the gas into, which is where the RIMS played, you know, a big part of it. But I also think there's another large part of the market that's growing, which is, you know, supplying permanent sort of industrial commercial manufacturing facilities, right? And a lot of the These factories, et cetera, that are looking for their own ESG-type initiatives are looking for long-term supply agreements. And I think the delay in us is just finding the happy medium of these supply agreements and making sure that we lock them in and lock them in at the right price. You know, because we're going to be stuck with them for 20 plus years. But I think there's upside to the number we've given you in the past. I think we've structured them very simply. You know, we're going to get a normal royalty off the top like any other gas provider, but we also are sharing. We're doing 50-50 joint venture projects, and we're going to share in the off-co of these entities. So, you know, we're making the royalty off the top and then sharing in the profitability of the entities below.
spk05: Great. And my follow-up question is really around operating leverage. You know, you talked about labor inflation. You know, you managed through that pretty well with price adjustments. But maybe if you could talk about labor availability. There's been a lot of service businesses where, you know, labor availability has been an issue to capture demand or, you know, it's hurt operating leverage. So as you look forward, um you know is how are you going to manage through labor availability issues in some of your markets you know maybe some of these secondary markets it's less of a concern but just talk through that and then you know can you continue to adjust pricing as inflation ramps yeah there's a lot of questions about i think where we sit today um you know i think
spk04: Yes, labor issues and challenges are definitely real. You know, I think when you talk about pricing and labor, I think it's all sort of part of the same conversation because at the end of the day, our business is very simple. We're paid to pick up waste. If we don't pick it up, You know, we can't put the price increases or we're going to get a lot of churn in that book of business, right? So I think they're all sort of tied together. But if you pick up the waste, you can generally charge whatever you want. You know, if you think about subscription residential or commercial, you know, a customer doesn't really care whether they're paying $17 or $18 a month or they're paying $25 a month. At the end of the day, they just want to pick it up when you say you're going to pick it up and then that will afford you the ability to charge what you want. Yes, labor is tight, but at the end of the day, this is what, you know, we're paid to do, and I tell our guys that all the time. And I generally say people don't leave the companies they work for. They actually leave the boss that they work for, right? So it's on our guys and the regional management to be accountable and, you know, keep our guys engaged and retained and retained, you know, who we have working for us today. So you are right, and you've got to be selective about new business, you know, because it's not a, you know, robust labor market today where you can grab from different pools. And so when you're winning new business and you're winning new municipal contracts, you better make sure you're getting it at the right price because, you know, there's going to be some wage inflation that goes into it, and we don't need to practice. So, you know, this is a for-profit organization, and, you know, that's what we're sort of focused on now.
spk05: Last question, I'll turn it over. Patrick, where do you see the business much longer term? I know you've given free cash flow numbers out there. I don't expect you to update those here. But just where do you see the business longer term? There's been a ton of M&A. You're growing organically, mid-single digits, plus delivering the balance sheet. You're integrating those assets. Are you going to grow at this same pace? How should we think about this business longer term? Just, you know, answer that however you want. Thank you.
spk04: Yeah, I mean, I think what you're going to see is much of the same going into the future. I don't think anything is going to change. I mean, I think when we did the IPO in March of 2020, our plan was very simple, that we believed we could take EBITDA from roughly $1 billion to $2 billion over a five-year period. I think we thought we could take free cash flow from 300 to sort of 700 to 800 million over that period and, you know, continue to drive margin expansion in the tune of sort of 200 to 250 basis points from where we were in 2020. I think from our perspective, we will exceed all of those targets. And I think our new goal is getting free cash flow to closer to a billion dollars. And I think when you layer in this R&G opportunity that starts rolling in in 2023, plus all of the recent moves that we've made over the last 18 months, I think we've reset our bogeys internally, and the new bogey is to get to that billion dollars of free cash flow. And I think we can do that over the next sort of two and a half to three years, fairly conservatively. And I think M&A, you know, you look at the organic opportunities, you know, the industry's never been healthier from a price and a volume perspective. M&A opportunities continue to be very exciting, and I think when you look at our footprint now in the U.S. and Canada, you know, we used to do sort of 15, 20 deals a year. We're doing 20, 25 deals a year. You know, this year we're on pace to probably do 40-plus deals a year. So I think you sort of couple that all together and then layer on all of the, you know – the refinancing of the balance sheet that drives incremental free cash flow out of the business, I think we're just very well positioned. So I think we're just going to keep doing a lot of what we've done.
spk05: That's great. Thank you.
spk03: Thanks, Omar.
spk00: Thank you, Hamza. Our next question comes from Mark Neville of Scotiabank. Please proceed, Mark.
spk09: Hey, good morning, guys. Great quarter here. Maybe just to wrap up the conversation on free cash flow, you're guiding the 520, 530, but if we were to fully sort of account for the divestitures, you're probably going to end up printing something closer to 600. Is my math correct?
spk08: Yeah, that's exactly right, Mark. As I said in the prepared remarks, look, the rationalization program has been extremely successful, and there's excess proceeds. So if you take where we end the year – You know, the net capex number could be as low as 450 or 460 with all the proceeds. So I'm normalizing by excluding a portion of those to sort of 540. If you were to include all the proceeds, you know, to your point, you'd be at a number sort of 600 to 620. Okay.
spk09: Another DFL renewable opportunity. I'm just curious when I'm thinking about capex for next year, is there a big capital requirement next year for these first five, six projects?
spk04: No, I think the way, I mean, it sort of goes back into the structure that we're filing. It shouldn't be a large capex spend. I think, you know, if we do some of these offtake agreements that we're thinking, you know, they'll require very little equity to fund the build load of the project.
spk09: Okay. Okay. And then maybe just on price for next year. With Canada finally starting to reopen, presumably there's some good opportunity to go after some pricing commercial. And just given the resets when they happen next year, the idea, should pricing sort of accelerate through the year versus where you're entering the year?
spk08: Yeah. Yeah. I think that's what we've seen throughout 2021, you know, which I think is atypical. You know, I think the normal industry would be Q1 being the peak and then steps down. But, Mark, I think that's right. With the dynamic of these CPI resets coupled with, you know, recovery of attractive, you know, price-centric commercial volumes, I think that upends the typical cadence. And so certainly I think the first couple quarters and then again with our sort of roughly 30% of the book resetting in Q3, that will provide support to Q3 pricing as well. So I do think similar to 2021, 2022 has the opportunity for continued acceleration of pricing as opposed to the Q1 peak that you might normally see.
spk09: Right. And sorry, just in terms of the Q4 guide, while we're talking about Canada, I guess, does that assume sort of a better opportunity
spk08: and the volume acceleration in canada um so just given everything starting to reopen again marshall and stadiums and like it's it was really based on the exiting of q3 so i mean if we go further but i mean we're there but like toronto i mean i went to hockey game like things are coming back i mean we're still not in the offices but we're you know as you know it's resembling normality again. So it's reflective of today. I mean, if all of a sudden everyone went back to the offices tomorrow, that would be upside. The chances of that happening before 2022 seem pretty remote to me.
spk09: Yeah, agreed. All right. Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate the time. Again, good quarter.
spk08: Thanks, Mark.
spk00: We have a question from Michael Hoffman of Stiefel. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk06: Thank you very much. Morning, Luke and Patrick. Um, if 59 is the run rate at year end based on what you have in hand, you share that you're going to be 6% or better organic given that we're in the business of modeling and we can't wait till February. Um, you know, that settles us without any M and a six to five kind of a billion seven and even, uh, which would be flat margins year over year, so that's not assuming any margin expansion, and about $700 million in free cash. So are those right places to start? And then we'll see what you can do.
spk08: Yeah, Michael, I'd say 5.4, you know, so put the 6% on that, plus add the 8.5 or 9 of rollover, so that gets you directionally to that sort of 6.2 number. And then everything else you said, look, that math is, I mean... The math is accurate. So, yeah, I think, you know, in reality, I hope we don't push margin expansion beyond where we are. You know, the free cash flow conversion story that I know, you know, you hear us keep saying, it's real. I mean, if you look, last year, free cash flow conversion at EBITDA was low 30s. This year, we're guiding to high 30s. Next year, that math you just described, I think, you know, you're 40s. And then later on, the continued M&A and the other sort of self-help, Patrick was saying, you go north of that. So that's where the math is going to shake out. I think directionally, you're sort of top line in the right sort of zip code. But again, you can do your temporary model now, and I'll refine it for you in February.
spk06: Great. And then given all the changes in the mix, can you walk us through how to think about seasonality now and what we should be doing in our models, like, you know, what's the way to think about a step down seasonality in 4Q and then into 1Q?
spk08: Yeah, it's a good question, Michael. And again, you know, we're doing all of our finalizing all of our budgets for next year, inclusive of all the recent M&A and, you know, recalibrating that because obviously as we continue to add revenues in the sort of more southern regions that tempers the previously existing seasonality curve. But the growth in the Midwest is, you know, certainly adding to it as well. And TerraPure has a significant seasonality curve just because the nature of that business is such. So historically, I'd say at the top line, you have sort of roughly 20% in Q1. You jump up to sort of mid-20s in Q2. Q3 is by far the peak at 26, 27, even 28, if you look at this year's path. And then Q4 is then down into that sort of low 20s. That's the historical curve, I think, you know, modeling that is probably in the right zip code. And, again, I can then give you the refinement in February.
spk06: Okay. That's turned up. And then in liquids, were you a net beneficiary of what's going on in the oil market that helped some of that performance in the 4% organic?
spk04: No. I mean, I think – We always seem to pick the wrong index. I think historically we were tied to Motiva and then When there was all the IMO 2020 stuff and then there was all the volatility of Motiva and the street not really understanding Motiva, we switched to a WPI index probably two and a half, three years ago. So when you look at our spread, we haven't got any material spread expansion over the course of the last couple of years. I mean, it's been relatively flat on a year-over-year basis.
spk06: Okay, so the importance of that is, and this is, you did it the old-fashioned way, lots of little customers seeing increased little bits of business.
spk03: Yes.
spk04: I mean, look, Motiva, I mean, you know, I mean, Motiva went from, you know, it was either $1 to $2 in the lows. Today's Motiva is $4 to $4.25. So the rebate to the street really hasn't changed all that much, and I think the refiners are capturing all of that margin, which is great for them. But we've never been in that game. This has been a service offering that augments the rest of our environmental services. So I think we're just happy maintaining that existing spread that we had previously.
spk06: Right, right. And my point was the 4% reflects that lots of small non-oil customers showed some incremental improvement. That's the positive message. You didn't get carried on the backs of oil.
spk03: That's right.
spk06: Right, right. Okay. Okay.
spk00: All right. Cool. Thank you.
spk08: Thanks, Michael.
spk00: Thank you, Michael. Our next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Jerry. Yes, hi, good morning.
spk04: I'm wondering if you folks wouldn't mind just talking about the opportunity that you see in recycling either from a Greenfield or M&A standpoint. Can you talk about what your pipeline looks like there? Thanks. Yeah, I think, you know, from our perspective, we're looking to build new facilities around markets where we have a significant amount of volume, right? So You know, when you think about a bunch of our operations in the southeast, and then you look to the Midwest and up into Michigan, you know, real opportunities for us to green-fill some sites. I think obviously with extended production responsibility trickling into Canada, that over the next 16 months to 18 months is going to play out in terms of capital investments we'll need to make in new recycling facilities outside of the ones we already own in specific markets in Ontario. So... I think if the model continues to be attractive and the revenue sharing agreements continue to work with producers and municipalities and customers, it will be a continued focus of ours to deploy dollars into those type of opportunities. But when I look at greenfield opportunities, probably we have four to five facilities that we want to build over the next 18 months.
spk08: And then, Jerry, I'd just add retrofitting existing facilities is another area, and by retrofitting, you know, adding latest technology, whether it's robots or more and more optical eyes, you know, the ability to improve recovery and what that does to rates, particularly at today's levels, coupled with the labor efficiencies. You know, there's very attractive returns from those type of investments, and so that's also another area that we're actively pursuing across our existing facilities. facility base in addition to Greenfield opportunities that Patrick referenced.
spk04: Terrific. And then, you know, separately, I'm wondering, can you just flesh out for us your M&A pipeline, you know, in a little bit more detail, you know, what's the pipeline look like today? What's the mix of assets that you're looking at within that pipeline and your level of optimism about getting enough activity in the fourth quarter to essentially issue the preferred shares that you gave yourself the option to do. Thanks. Yeah, so pipeline continues to be robust, you know, between Canada and the U.S. I mean, I think from our perspective in the base case, we'd probably acquire another sort of $50-ish million of revenue. It could be upwards of up to $100 million of revenue. you know, that sort of roll over that you'd see rolling into sort of next year on an annualized basis. So, you know, a lot of conviction around, you know, still continued M&A through the back half of the year. Okay. And lastly, Patrick, you mentioned the various mechanisms to monetize landfill gas. It looks at least optically that the economics are most attractive to pipeline that gas. I'm wondering if you could just comment on what the returns look like for the other monetization options that you folks laid out and the option to not connect it to the pipeline, I guess, suggests. um, limited pipeline infrastructure in those areas, I would guess, but maybe you could flesh that out for us. Yeah, I mean, different ways to pipeline it, obviously, whether we put it in the transportation market or whether we put it into the, you know, industrial manufacturing facilities that are sort of looking, you know, to buy this or into pipelines that are looking to put a portion of gas in other pipes that's green gas. Um, you know, I think what you'll see is it'll be a hybrid of all of those different agreements. I think when you look at it very simply, you know, obviously extremely attractive returns on investment capital profile. I mean, I think when you look at them today at today's pricing, you're probably in a two to two and a half year paybacks on most facilities on 20 year agreements. So, you know, they will be very accretive to the sort of overall structure that we currently have today. Appreciate the discussion. Thanks.
spk00: Our next question comes from Kevin Chiang of CIBC. Please go ahead, Kevin.
spk07: Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. May I just ask on the 2022, the six plus percent organic number you provided, you do highlight some of your markets have lagged in the recovery. I guess we're sitting in one of them. Does that organic number assume that that's, you know, that volume spread between markets that have recovered more fully, you know, that's closed? Or are you assuming that there's still kind of a lag into 2022? And if that is the assumption, if we were to assume there is a convergence, any sense of what that upside to volume could be if all your markets kind of go back to normal next year?
spk06: Yeah.
spk08: So, Kevin, it's Luke. You know, I want to reiterate that we're not giving the sort of guidance today. You know, what we're saying is I think the backdrop supports something better than six. So I'm trying to say that, you know, we are very optimistic about what 22 is going to look like. We don't know, you know, what it's going to be as of yet. Every sort of month that passes, we'll have sort of better perspective. So when we come in February, we'll give you a number. It's going to be better than six. It's just how much better sort of remains to be seen. So, you know, the intent was to say, hey, it's looking positive and we're very optimistic. I think it was more even if you only use six, with what we've done for M&A, we're already at a 15% number for next year. So, you know, that was more the intent as opposed to trying to anchor us to sort of six. It's going to be a number better than six.
spk04: It's good to leave a little meat on the bone. You know, I'm under-promising over the other side, you know, from the opposite side.
spk08: Yeah, Kevin, I think, look, the simple math is the pricing, if the pricing is almost 3.5 to 4 for us, with the backdrop cannot go to 4.5 to 5, and then if volume, if all that volume comes back, you could have, you know, a couple points of volume on top. And, you know, you put that together, you can get to a number of 7 or 7 or better, but, you know, we're going to, you know, get back to you with exactly the way we think that's going to be shaking out at that time.
spk07: That's fair enough. That's actually a very helpful caller. And then my second question, I was going to ask on the U.S. solid waste margin, so up year over year and sequentially, and you saw an elevated level of M&A, and I think these come in at a lower margin. So I just wonder, what's your legacy U.S.? Like if I were to take out the acquisition you folded in in the third quarter, Do you have a sense of what your run rate base U.S. solid waste margins would be? They seem to be a lot higher than maybe we would have all thought a year ago. And maybe if I extend that further, does that kind of change how you think about your multi-year consolidated margin expectations even when you account for mix?
spk08: Yeah, so a lot in there, Kevin. Like if you think about our U.S. business, the M&A was a drag to the base margin. If you think about a base, I mean, they're all pretty close. If you think about a base in the low 30s, sort of, you know, a 32% thing, you've got to remember Q3 is the peak, right? It's not reflective of the year as a whole. But I think we have re-rated, and you have that business, a north of 30% margin. And I think as we go forward and leverage the asset base that we have, just organically, there's going to be real operating leverage in there. So you've got to remember we have underutilized post-collection assets. There's very high blow-through as we go and sort of build up the collection networks and densify that. So you put it all together, you know, we came out, and Patrick mentioned it in his prior response, that we came out and gave our ideal at a 24% margin business and say we add 200, 250 basis points, bringing that up to a blended margin business and sort of 27, 27.5. You know, I think now that bogey has gotten higher, and we can take this business to sort of, you know, high 20s, And I think the solid waste leverage, operating leverage is going to be a point of it. You're going to bring that blended solid waste segment into that low 30s. And then liquid and infra are going to get to those stated targets as well. So it's not just, I think, solid waste U.S. I think solid waste U.S. started as a high relative margin business. It's also bringing up the Canadian segment as well as the liquid and infra is all going to contribute to getting to that new level, high 20s, which is where we think we're going to take this.
spk07: That's very helpful, Colin. Thank you. That's all from me. Congrats on a good quarter there.
spk04: Thanks, Kevin.
spk00: Our next question comes from Tim James of TD Securities. Please proceed, Tim.
spk10: Thanks very much. Good morning. Just wondering if you could comment or update us a little bit on plans and the opportunity around the tear up here, the Stoning Creek landfill facility in particular. I know that was kind of an exciting opportunity to get your hands on that. Just talk about sort of where that stands and what the opportunity is there as you look at it today.
spk04: Yeah, I think from our perspective, you know, with the GTA being sort of slow to recovery, I think there's real opportunities as, you know, a bunch of the industrial manufacturers and generators of this waste come back online, not to mention a pretty large internalization opportunity for us to be able to internalize certain wastes and soils that historically have been going to, you know, landfills other than that that we've been using other third parties. So that process has started, but, you know, I think... As we roll into 2022, we think there's, you know, material upside coming from that site for us.
spk10: Okay, that's helpful. My second question, I mean, just, you know, your execution, it seems like it's going so well here overall. You're securing M&A opportunities. You've now got this RNG initiative underway. I mean, things look very promising, obviously, as you've identified. I mean, if you were forced to say where the greatest challenges are in the business today, what would you or could you point to?
spk04: I mean, we've been doing this for 15 years, right? I know it may seem like a lot for people sitting on the outside that have now eyes on the company as this is a public company, but this is sort of in the DNA. I mean, I think... Where it always is, the bottleneck is always around integration, right, and sort of pacing that out both, you know, from a regional perspective and just a function perspective. So that's always, you know, that's always where your sort of bottleneck is in terms of, you know, continuing to ramp on the M&A front. The beauty of where we are is we have nine provinces in Canada, 27 states in the U.S. today, and we have regional management teams there that know GFL systems, et cetera, which is far different than what we had 10 years ago as we were building all of those out. So now that those are built, the M&A program really is pretty seamless because we're tucking these businesses into existing markets where we already own businesses. I continue to tell people the biggest threat in all of our businesses is cyber security. We were cyber attacked in 2016, cyber attacked on a daily basis, all of us. And I think just continuing to stay on top of those risks around that part of the business will be prevalent for us. But as far as I'm concerned, I feel very good about where we are. obviously on the inflation front, you know, keeping an eye on the labor and the supply chain stuff, just ensuring that we get the parts we need to run our business and get the equipment that we need to run our business. So far, we've been in a very good spot. I would say our procurement department has done an excellent job of staying on top of that and ensuring we get what we need and ensuring that we have the parts to maintain our trucks. But, you know, by and large, I think, you know, ourselves as a company and the industry as a whole is in a very good position today.
spk09: Okay, great. Thanks for the insights, Patrick. Thank you, Luke.
spk04: Thanks, Jim.
spk00: Our next question comes from Michael Feniger of Bank of America. Michael, please go ahead.
spk10: Thanks, guys, for just taking my question. Just on that Last comment, Patrick. I'm just curious, on the labor side and supply constraints, clearly you guys managed it well. I'm just curious, as you've moved into Q4, have you seen any signs of that easing, or is it just not getting incrementally worse, at least, when you think about some of those labor and supply constraints?
spk04: Yeah, labor is definitely eased. I would say, you know, the peak was spring, summer. And I think just the natural cadence of the businesses, right, like people just need less people over the, you know, winter and coming into the spring. So I think that's definitely eased. But, you know, a lot of the government programs are starting to come off. We've definitely seen it eased. You know, our focus now is on ensuring that we get on, you know, come back in spring of 2022 that we're staffed appropriately and we have the right bodies and the right people in the right seats. You know, supply constraints, listen, it's lead times, right? And I think, again, our guys got in front of it and, you know, kudos to them. They're a lot smarter than me on a lot of these topics. And, you know, I think with our relationships with a lot of the OEMs and suppliers, you know, they were very forthcoming just given the size of customer we are to them and letting us know the appropriate lead times, you know, whether it's brake pads, whether it's hoses, et cetera. Like all of the things we need to run our business on a day-to-day basis, you know, they've come to us and said, hey, you know, what do you need? Because, you know, we're experiencing six to ten week delays on this sort of stuff. So more historically, you could get that stuff in 24 hours. So I think our guys were proactive, one out, you know, both purchased what we need to purchase for the existing business and, you know, been able to manage through it so far. In terms of where that's going, listen, if I had a crystal ball, I could tell you I have no idea. I don't know how the world's gone. gotten such a mess over the last, you know, 12 months. But, I mean, hopefully we're coming out the other end of it that, you know, shifting starts, other things start, and we get back on the sort of, you know, right program here in the next six months.
spk10: Makes sense, Patrick. And then on just the pricing, you laid out the CPI reset. I'm just curious in terms of big picture for you guys as we enter 2022 on the price front. If if you put a price increase to one of your commercial customers, let's say, you know, March, April, May, you know, are you willing to go back to implement another price increase? Or is the strategy to let those CPI resets happen? You're managing a business and you'll wait to your normal annual price increase. I'm just curious how you think about that as you move to 2022. Yeah, so big difference between the open market
spk04: and, you know, the contractual CPI annual adjustments like you'd see on municipal contracts, unfortunately on the municipal ones you have to wait that year anyway, so there's no choice. But listen, on the open book of business, if things materially change, you know, I think And you're providing great service. I think customers know and understand that you will have to pay more. Obviously, we like to work with our customers as much as we can, but at the end of the day, these are real cost pressures that we're all experiencing. So I think we... We wouldn't be shy to go back out and put through a PI if we saw the real need to in order to sort of maintain some extraordinary inflation measures that we hadn't predicted when we put through the first price increase earlier in the year.
spk10: That's great. And just lastly, can you just remind us of sensitivity to your burnings from recycling and those commodity prices? I believe contracts are a bit different than your peers, or maybe it's a bit different when you say Canada and U.S. Can you just flesh that out? That'd be great.
spk08: Yeah, Michael, this is Luke. We have roughly 800,000 tons that we have some volatility on in terms of, you know, we've got the back end. Now, more and more, the change in the dollars we're getting, we're rebating back to the customer. But if you think about it today, a good math is $0.60 on the dollar here keeping. On those 800,000 tons, if the blended basket is going up a dollar, I'm getting $0.60 of that. That's the rough math, although I would say it continues to migrate. And when we talk in February, we'll give you the latest sort of view as to where we are at at that time.
spk10: Perfect. Thanks, guys.
spk08: Thanks, Michael.
spk00: Our final question today comes from Rupert Merritt of National Bank Financial. Rupert, please go ahead.
spk01: Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of quick follow-ups on R&G to start. Patrick, you mentioned the first five or six R&G assets. You're looking at $75 to $100 million of free cash. Can you confirm that's your 50% share? And when you talk about the time frame for these to come online, 2023, how quickly should we expect this? Does that get staggered through the year, or are we looking for earlier or later?
spk04: So I think you will, yes, the $75 to 100 is the right number i think the lion's share of that will come in through various parts of the year in 2023 and you'll have a full run rate i think the number will be higher by the time you get out to 2024 um because we'll bring on you know those incremental landfills over the course of 2022 uh beyond the five to six that i just spoke about um but you'll have you know real ball a little probably eight to ten million dollars coming in 2022 a good chunk of numbers in 2023, and then full run rate in 2024 for probably the lion's share of the projects.
spk01: Okay, great. And I imagine the first five or six are the best projects, opportunities you have. What do the next five or six look like after that as far as?
spk04: I'm not sure they're the best. They are the simplest. to execute. You know, because some of these have electrocontracts that have to come out of, some require incremental infrastructure, some require, you know, expanding pipelines to be able to get to the site. You know, but if you think about the first five or six we're talking about, they're roughly, call it 25,000 SCFM of gas a day. I mean, you know, I think conservatively, the other ones would sum to the same. So... You know, the opportunity could be double the size if we're able to execute on them all.
spk01: And then the follow-on opportunities are those 2024 story? Do you bring them on that quickly?
spk04: I think we will sign up some of the others for sure over the course of 2022, right? So they would also come online sometime in 2023 with a full run rate in 2024.
spk01: All right, very good. And then quickly, Luke, can you talk about the sensitivity you have to fuel prices? right now and how we should be modeling that going forward?
spk08: Yeah, I mean, look, we have roughly 50 million liters a quarter of fuel that we're going right now. And our recovery, you know, we are not nearly as advanced on our recovery of fuel costs as sort of we could be. So as we continue to progress on that strategy, we're recovering more and more in the offsetting. But today, you know, we have a high degree of exposure. We're probably mitigating sort of 20%. of the price volatility, and the rest is sort of falling through. Now, incremental CNG conversion, as we continue to do that, is also going to drive improvement, but that's sort of where we sit today.
spk01: Excellent. Thank you very much. I'll leave it there.
spk05: Thank you.
spk00: Thank you, Rupert. This concludes today's Q&A session and also concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. We hope you have a great rest of your day. You may now disconnect your line.
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