Gildan Activewear, Inc.

Good morning. My name is Jeanne and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome you to the Q4 2023 Gildan ActiveWare earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Jessie Haim, Vice President, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, Jeannie. Good morning, everyone. Earlier, we issued a press release announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, as well as our first-time guidance for 2024. The company's management discussion and analysis and consolidated financial statements are expected to be filed with the Canadian Securities and Regulatory Authorities and the U.S. Securities Commission today and will also be available on our corporate website. Joining me on the call today are Vince Tyra, President and CEO of Gildan, Rod Harries, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial and Administrative Officer, and Chuck Ward, President, Sales, Marketing, and Distribution. This morning, we'll take you through the results for the quarter and a question and answer session will follow. Before we begin, please take note that certain statements included in this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements which involve unknown and known risks, uncertainties, and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. We refer you to the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian Securities Regulatory Authorities. During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable IFRS measures are provided in today's earnings release, as well as our MD&A. And now, I'll turn it over to Vince.

Thank you, Jessie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. I've been looking forward to engaging with you all, and I'm thrilled to address you today in my first earnings call as the newly appointed CEO of Gildan ActiveWare. As for the results, we delivered a solid Q4 thanks to the outstanding operational execution by our highly skilled team of employees across our global footprint. In fact, 2023 was a year of strong progress on Gildan's sustainable growth strategy, despite an overall challenging macroeconomic backdrop and tough year-over-year comparative periods. This foundation, together with a solid balance sheet, puts us in an enviable position and hands upon it as we go forward. In my early weeks with the company, I witnessed firsthand the incredible talent and dedication of the Gildan team. I've been a participant in this industry for several decades as an operating executive and in other capacities, and Gildan's powerful manufacturing engine is truly a key differentiator. I look forward to leveraging Gildan's strengths, our incredible team, and my experience to drive this organization's long-term growth and create value for shareholders. and I'm working closely with the leadership team and the board to find opportunities to further leverage our strong foundation and drive strong and durable growth in the future. Finally, as I've been onboarding with our great company, I've had the opportunity to visit with hundreds of employees in Montreal and Honduras and have recently met with many of our key customers during the recent industry trade shows in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Long Beach, California, which is fueling my excitement for the future. It was great to reconnect with many familiar faces in the industry as well and gain their perspective on our company as well as the industry. And I'm personally looking forward to sharing my views with you in the months ahead as we leverage our strong capabilities and innovation to create further opportunities going forward. I look forward to taking your questions a little later during the Q&A session. And with that, I will turn it over to Rod.

Thank you, Vince. Good morning to all and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start the call by thanking the entire Gildan team for everyone's excellent work and dedication through 2023, leading us to a strong finish to the year. We delivered sales growth of 9% in the fourth quarter, adjusted operating margin at the high end of the company's target range, double-digit EPS growth, and we generated robust cash flow, allowing us to execute on our capital allocation priorities. We are now two years into the Gildan Sustainable Growth Strategy, or GSG strategy, and we are pleased with the progress made across our three key strategic pillars, but also excited to capitalize and further enhance all of the work that has been done in 2023 as we enter 2024. I will expand on this shortly along with our outlook for 2024, but for now, let's shift our focus to the fourth quarter results. Net sales for the fourth quarter came in at $783 million, up 9%, with active wear sales at $644 million, up 8%, and hosiery and underwear sales at $139 million, up 11%. The increase in activewear sales was fueled by higher volumes driven by POS, as well as higher levels of customer replenishment than the prior year. We specifically benefited from healthy POS levels and continued strong performance in key growth categories, such as fleece and ring-spun t-shirts, which translated into favorable mixed versus last year. Finally, our international sales were down 24% in the quarter despite some POS recovery, as difficult macroeconomic conditions in these markets led to lack of inventory replenishment compared to the prior year. Turning to the hosiery and underwear category, the sales increase was fueled by higher volumes driven by a combination of POS with pockets of strength notably in global lifestyle brands, as well as the continued rollout of programs in the mass retail channel. So despite continued industry-weak demand, For men's underwear and socks, we continue to achieve a solid performance in this category. Wrapping up on sales, overall, we are very pleased with the performance that we delivered in the quarter in the context of what continues to be an uncertain environment for consumer spending as we move from 2023 to 2024. Turning to the margins for the quarter, adjusted gross margin came in at 30.2%, up 110 basis points year over year, primarily due to lower raw material costs slightly offset by lower net selling prices. As fully expected, we saw a sequential improvement of 270 basis points in our adjusted gross margin as pressure from the flow-through of peak cotton costs subsided significantly in the fourth quarter. And, as we previously called out, this will continue to be a tailwind as we move through 2024. Moving on to SG&A. Expenses were $88 million, or 11.3% of sales, including CEO separation costs and related advisory fees on shareholder matters. On an adjusted basis, as a percentage of sales, SG&A was up 30 basis points to 10.5% as the impact of higher year-over-year expenses more than offset the benefit of sales leverage. Looking at our overall SG&A performance in 2023, we continue to be pleased with how the team managed SG&A in this inflationary environment, and we expect this performance to continue as we move forward. So summing up these elements in the quarter, we generated an operating margin of 22.8% of sales. Now, as part of an annual impairment testing requirements and given improved profitability projections related to our hosiery sales, we recorded a $41 million reversal of prior hosiery-related impairment charges. Adjusting for this, as well as for restructuring costs in both years and an insurance accounting gain in 2022, we generated adjusted operating margin of 19.7 percent, up 90 basis points over last year, at the high end of our target range of 18 to 20 percent, and in line with our expectations. Further, after reflecting net financial expenses of 21 million and factoring in continued share repurchases, we reported gap diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS of 89 cents and 75 cents, respectively. Turning to cash flow and balance sheet items, Cash flow from operating activities totaled 239 million, with free cash flow coming in at 203 million, driven by higher adjusted net earnings together with lower working capital investments and lower capex. This strong finish yielded full-year cash flow from operating activities of 547 million and free cash flow of 392 million. The significant increase in free cash flow in 2023, which albeit came in a little lower than previously anticipated, reflected lower capital expenditures as well as lower working capital investments versus the prior year when we were working hard to bring inventories to higher and more optimal levels than during the pandemic. The progressive ramp-up of our new large-scale Bangladesh facility is underway, which will continue through 2024, and as planned, we exited 2023 at a capacity run rate of around 25% and continue to expect an exit rate of about 75% at the end of 2024. Finally, and importantly, we ended the year with very satisfactory inventory levels and in a strong position to service our customers as we move through 2024. Moving on to our NCIB. Our robust buyback activity this quarter underscores our strong cash flow generation and commitment to delivering value to our shareholders. In fact, in 2023, we repurchased approximately 11.5 million shares under our NCIB program, or close to 7% of our public flow, returning a total of $492 million of capital to shareholders for the year, including dividend payments. And given the strength of our free cash flow, even with this significant return of capital during 2023, our net debt finished at $993 million at year end with a net debt leverage ratio of 1.5, well within our one to two times targeted debt levels. This brings me to a few thoughts on our GST strategy and our outlook for the year ahead. We've made strong progress on our three key strategic pillars, optimizing our capacity, fostering innovation, and implementing our next generation ESG strategy. We have also successfully executed on several components of the financial framework we laid out. While our revenue growth during 2023 was hindered by an industry-wide soft demand environment driven by the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we have nonetheless continued to drive market share gains in key product categories and this positions as well as we move forward. leveraging our strong capabilities in the target markets that we serve.

So for 2024, we expect the following. Revenue growth for the full year to be flat to up low single digits.

Adjusted operating margins slightly above the high end of our 18 to 20% annual target range. CapEx to come in at approximately 5% of sales. Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.92 to $3.07, up significantly between 13.5% and 19.5% year over year. Free cash flow above 2023 levels driven by increased profitability, lower working capital investments, and lower capital expenditures than in 2023. Further, the outlook that I just laid out is underpinned by some key assumptions, including the following. Our outlook assumes that POS trends continue to improve compared to 2023, reflecting potential for recovery in various markets, as well as overall growth opportunities. Our SOC license agreement with Under Armour is expiring late March, which is expected to have a minimal impact on our profitability. Excluding the impact of this agreement and on a comparable basis, our outlook implies full-year revenue growth in 2024 would be more in the low to mid-single-digit range. We also assume continued share repurchases in 2024, further demonstrating our belief in the strength of our business and our commitment to optimizing capital allocation. And we expect to maintain our debt leverage ratio within our target range of one to two times. Finally, as discussed last quarter, the timing of the potential enactment of legislation related to global minimum tax, or GMT, in Canada remains uncertain. We have nonetheless incorporated into our guidance the estimated impact of the implementation of draft GMT in Canada and Barbados, retroactive to January 1, 2024, as well as certain expected refundable tax credits, which will reduce our SG&A. I also want to provide you with an update on the current quarter. While we expect positive POS trends across the board in 2024, POS has been somewhat mixed so far in Q1, with good strength in certain important active wear areas such as in fleece and ring spun products, but with more variability in other areas such as with underwear in the hosiery and underwear category. Moreover, and more importantly with respect to Q1, we expect the higher levels of customer replenishment that we saw in Q4 will impact the level of restocking that will take place in Q1. As such, we currently expect Q1 net sales to be down low single digits and expect Q1 adjusted operating margin to come in around the low end of our 18 to 20% target range. So in conclusion, I'd like to leave you with a few thoughts. Following the multi-year volatility related to the pandemic, we saw normalizing inventory and replenishment patterns as we moved through 2023. But it was a challenging year overall, given the impact of the macroeconomic environment, and we are pleased with the progress we achieved. As we begin 2024, We feel that Gildan is well positioned to continue to win in our markets regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop. While we expect continued momentum in the imprintables market, end user behavior continues to be affected by inflationary pressures weighing on buying patterns, still leading some of our customers to place orders closer to their needs and managing their inventory and replenishment levels more tightly. That said, we expect demand for replenishment type products to continue to normalize as we move through the year given the nature of the products we sell. Furthermore, our in-stock levels are in great shape. We have significant flexibility in our manufacturing system and a healthy balance sheet. We also remain encouraged by market share gains in key growth categories such as fleece and ring spun and are incredibly excited with our recent product innovation. As introduced at the Impressions Trade Show in January 2024, these products feature softer fabric and enhanced printability based on our new proprietary soft cotton technology which is expected to further enhance our competitive positioning. Consequently, you can see we're continuing to leverage the GSG strategy to drive organic growth and remain confident in our ability to drive shareholder value into the future. We thank you for your interest and support in our company. This concludes my formal remarks. And with that, I will turn it back over to Jesse.

Thank you, Rod. Before moving to the Q&A session, I'd ask you to limit the number of questions to two, and we'll circle back for a second round of questions if time permits. Finally, please note, as the purpose of today's call is to discuss Gildan's results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31st, 2023, we will only address questions relating to our financial results and guidance and related operational matters. Jeannie, you may begin the Q&A session.

If you would like to ask a question, press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Paul Lujue with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks, guys. Just a couple quick ones. On the GMT, curious what tax rate you guys are assuming and also the assumed SG&A offset that you've got built into guidance. And then, can you also talk about the pricing environment? You mentioned lower costs, but also lower pricing. So, what are you seeing from the competitive landscape, the expected decreases all year on the pricing side, and any sense of magnitude that you can share, and how it might differ by category? Thanks.

Okay, Paul, I'll start, and I'll turn it over to the team to answer the question on pricing.

But if you look at effectively what we've assumed on the tax side, as I indicated in the comments, we've assumed the enactment of the global minimum tax, and that will occur retroactive to January 1, 2024. Currently, there's draft legislation out there. It hasn't been enacted yet, but it's our expectation that it will be enacted in Canada this year. And so what we've assumed from a tax perspective is that in parallel with the enactment of GMT, our effective tax rate will move up to just below 18%. That'll be the consequence of GMT rolling through Canada and other jurisdictions. However, there are other benefits that we expect to see related to tax reform that are expected to yield credits that will flow through our SG&A line. And the simplest way to think about that is that the quantum of those credits will probably reduce our SG&A as a percent of sales by about 80 basis points. So that effectively will bring down the net impact of GMT on our P&L. It will also boost up our operating margin. And so that is reflected in our EPS guidance. If we move to the question on pricing and what we've assumed in the price environment, effectively, if you look at prices overall, we do see stability as we as we move into 2024. We've seen it in 2023, and we do see it as we move into 2024. There are pockets where we do see real competitiveness in pricing, I would say. And if you think about our national accounts business there, I would say it's very competitive. And then if you look at the international markets as well, we've seen some price pressure there, although we do see that abating, I would say, as we move into 2024. and partly because, from our perspective, we're going to be very strong on the product side. But overall, we are expecting, I would say, a stable price environment with a little bit of, I would say, downward pressure overall on net price, but very manageable as we move through 2024. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Jay Soule with UBS. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you so much. I have two questions. First, for Vince, as you've gotten acclimated in the company, what do you see as the biggest long-term growth opportunities, just from a sort of big-picture qualitative perspective? And then secondly, for Rod, if we think about the fiscal 24 margin guidance, how are you thinking about gross margin versus SG&A within that guide? Thank you.

Thank you, Jay. Obviously, that's a great question. I think that's getting developed. I can talk about my initial impressions in the first month or so here, but in terms of nailing down the long-term strategy, I think that'll come as 2024 develops. Certainly, my experience with the industry is helping, hopefully, shortcut that time frame. With that being said, I think the reasons I'm here are what I've been able to validate in terms of what we have and the manufacturing capacity and the agility of that capacity. Obviously, the brands that we have, when you think about American Apparel and Comfort Colors and Gildan itself are powerful in this industry, and we're re-energizing the American Apparel brand as most know. The leadership team, there's a number of things that go into it, but I think we'll be focusing on what our capabilities are in the, in the manufacturing, obviously looking at, uh, how we can enhance upon the, the GSG, which I think is a pretty strong approach. I mean, this back to basics that I've kind of watched and look and see what's happened the last couple of years, it's led to the GSG and, and what's happening internationally. I think, um, it was going to bail us some nice opportunities and, uh, probably the biggest surprise I saw in just being in Honduras for a week is just how much innovation is going on inside the plant and what it avails us in long-term opportunities.

Okay. Thanks, Vince. And so if I go to the second part of your question, Jay, on gross margin SG&A, and maybe I'll also talk about it from an operating margin perspective. But look, we think we're in very good shape as we move into 24. If you look From a gross margin perspective, if you look at where we were in Q4, our gross margin came in just a little above 30%. And that was in line with what we had anticipated. And we have been saying all through 23 that effectively we expect to see the tailwind associated with fiber costs really kick in as we get into Q4 and as we move into 2024. You may recall that caused pressure in the early part of 23. We did not price for that. We knew it was effectively going to flow through. And now we're seeing it in Q4. And you can expect our gross margins to stay strong as we move through 24. And, you know, we'll continue to improve upon that, right, because there's other things that we're doing from a manufacturing perspective. You know, we continue to optimize our structure. We have Bangladesh ramping up, which we're incredibly excited about. And so we believe that we have gross margin very well under control as we move into 24. Same thing from an SG&A perspective. I think we're very disciplined on SG&A. We've been very focused on effectively making sure that the front end of our business is very efficient in the way that we operate. And if you look at our SG&A performance full year in 23, we came in just around 10%, which is around our targets. And as we move into 24, we'll be looking to continue to run at those levels, maybe improve upon it a little bit, and then we'll get also the benefit of the refundable tax credits flowing through. And so you can see SG&A on a full-year basis should look good on a comp basis versus 23. And then when you look at overall up margin, that's why we've given the guidance that we expect it to be slightly above the 18% to 20% range, the higher than the 20%. because of what we're seeing, gross margin and SG&A. So overall, we feel we're very well positioned.

Things are well under control, and we're excited about what we see for 24. Got it. Thank you so much.

Your next question comes from the line of George Dumais with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Good morning, guys. Rod, can you help us understand the moving parts embedded in the Q1 guidance of down low single digits and How should we think of the recovery towards the flat to up low single digits? Would that be linear or a little bit more bumpy?

If you look at Q1, we have called out that it would be down low single digits. I gave some color in the script. We talked about POS effectively being mixed, but I think really the story behind POS is POS is in good shape. It's in good shape for us across the active work category, if you look, and that's the most important category for us, that if you look across the board, POS is performing reasonably well, you know, as you think about the macro backdrop. So I would say, you know, we are comfortable with what we're seeing there. There are some spots, some pockets of weakness where it's a little bit more variable, but I would say it's holding up. But as we go into Q1, what we do see is effectively, we do expect restocking on the distributor side. We're going into season, so we expect to see restocking. But because of the strength of what we saw in Q4, where normally we would expect destocking Q4, and we've called that out. We were expecting that. But what happened was we shipped to POS. We shipped in line with POS in Q4. And effectively, as a result of that, we didn't see the, I would say, the the destock in Q4, and so what we expect are lower levels of replenishment in Q1. So the restock won't be as large as you might normally expect in the first quarter. So the impact of that in total basically meant that we will see a little bit of weaker start to the year, but I would say as we go forward, we do see strength as we move into Q2, Q3, Q4. And that's all on the back of our very strong competitive positioning. What we're seeing with market share gains, what we're seeing in these key categories, ring spun, fleece, all the drivers of the business. I mean, there are many, I would say, drivers of the business as we think about 24 in total, right? So we've got those product categories that we're doing very well on. We've got product innovation coming through, which I called out, we're very excited about. You'll see that on the basic side. We've got new product styles that are, effectively rolling through, which will drive our business in national accounts, in international. We've got new retail programs in activewear, in underwear, in hosiery. We're doing well on the hosiery side with some of our customers. We're excited about what's going on with Comfort Colors, American Apparel. We've got strong product availability. If you look across the board at all of the different areas of the business, Even though you've got the macro backdrop to deal with, we feel we're well positioned as we move through the year, and you'll see that as we move through the quarters.

Okay, thanks. Just for my follow-up, I want to talk a little bit more about free cash flow. Can you maybe quantify the lift, or can you give us some goalposts in terms of working capital and CapEx for this year?

Yeah, so CapEx, I called out. 5% of sales is a good guide. And as you think about CapEx, we had it a little bit higher in 2023. There we were spending a little bit more on Bangladesh, but now we're ramping up Bangladesh. So CapEx comes down as we move into 24. And then if you look from a working capital perspective, inventory, we've made our investments in working capital. So as we move into 24, we don't have to make the type of investments that we've been making in the last couple of years. And so as a result of that, we'd say we do see the strong free cash flow. So the guide is that... free cash flow will come in stronger than 23. And we fully expect that given the different elements, what we see from a profitability perspective, working capital and CapEx.

Okay. Will you carry me through a number of us for working capital? Like just get a sense of where you see that landing at the end of the year?

Well, look, if you think about working capital at the end of the year, we generally are running in the mid thirties, right? As a percent of sales, that's effectively, you know, where we tend to be. So around that, That area is what I'll be looking at, George, as you think about effectively modeling out working capital. Again, working capital is like all of the different other areas of our business. We think we've got it well under control. As I said, our inventory position is very good. We're in a very good spot to support product availability. If you look across the board, I think we're managing that well. Mid-30s, Around that area is kind of the way to think about working capital for us when we finish 24. Great, thanks.

Good luck. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Morrison with TD Securities. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. Rod, can you just elaborate on some of the industry details on the Q4 POS performance, maybe an update on inventory in the distributor channel, and then the trend to trade down to lower price points, is that accelerating or staying low?

Okay, Brian, we'll answer this question.

Hey, Brian. Good morning. As we looked at fourth quarter, I mean, we continue to see growth in the areas we've been talking about with ring spun and fleece being up double digits. You know, we saw good positive POS from the basics as well, and it was up low single digits. So, again, I think we saw growth across the categories. throughout the fourth quarter, and we're seeing that carry into Q1 with positive POS as well. And so, you know, again, we saw ourselves continue to gain share. You know, we've been talking about that the last few quarters. You know, with a challenge in the market, you know, we've outperformed the market in those categories. We continue to gain share. From a channel inventory perspective, as I mentioned, I think it's imbalance. It's healthy inventory, especially as we go into season here later in the quarter. And so I think it's well dispersed and across product categories. So I think the channel is in good shape.

And then on trade down, Brian, we did see some trade down as we moved through Q4. I mean, the trade down isn't sort of evolving the way that we discussed it. The category we like to talk about is fleece. And if you look at the mix between the hoods and the crew's, Again, it sort of went more to a balanced mix versus what we traditionally see, which is more heavy on the hood side versus the cruise. So the trade down did unfold as we moved through the fourth quarter. But mix overall, I would say we're okay as we look at it. And then as we move into 24, we have been careful as we think about mix with respect to the guide. So we'll see how the year evolves. But because of the macro backdrop and everything that we're seeing with respect to inflation, all the things that are creating a little bit of pressure for everybody, we have been careful about how we think about mix as we've given you the guide for full year 24.

Okay, thanks for that. Chuck, I want to follow up with my second question, which is for Vince. I want to circle back to your creation of long-term shareholder value in your prepared remarks. Again, it's early days. It sounds like you're content with GSG, but high level, what are your initial thoughts on growth drivers or avenues as we look beyond the execution of the near-term GSG strategy? You mentioned international. You mentioned the cost advantage. But does anything stand out that requires a material shift from the current strategy?

No, I think I'm quick to answer that. I don't see a material shift in our Gildan sustainable growth strategy. I think it's pretty down in terms of what, like I said, there's, you know, coming off the basics, the skew rationalization, where manufacturing is today with the, you know, certainly you can see the plan in Bangladesh where we want to, the DNA is to be a low-cost producer. And I think just leveraging the Bangladesh investment is going to be important as well. That also avails us opportunities in Europe and international that you know, maybe strengthens our opportunity to expand there. So, no, I don't see anything material, you know, that we need. We just need to enhance upon what we have.

Thanks very much. Thanks very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Luke Hannon with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to ask about product innovation, which has come up a number of times on this call and specifically on the new products that were introduced last month. Can you give us a sense of directionally what roughly are we talking about in terms of the magnitude of sales that this will impact or even the percentage of SKUs? And where else do you see opportunities for innovation within the portfolio?

Hi, Luke. This is Chuck. So I'll take that. A few things. One, you know, as we think about innovation, we think about innovation across not only product but also our manufacturing and our ESG. So we continue to innovate, you know, throughout. And so we're continuing to constantly focus on where we can innovate in the product. As you said at the show, we were excited about the innovations we put out around our core basics. We really touched each one of the basics, our style 2000, our style 5000, our 8000, and our fleece. So, you know, we wanted to make some changes there to give it better features, better printability. I think it was well received in the market. And, you know, we'll start seeing that product come through the market mid-year. And then from an impact perspective, we think it shores up our base, you know, OE product, and then we'll continue to grow in that fleece area. We've seen drastic growth, as I was mentioning, double-digit growth before in fleece. That's going to continue. And so it just shores up that base and will continue to drive growth across the category.

Okay, understood. Thanks. For my follow-up here, I just wanted to ask about where both retailers and distributors are sitting as of today when it comes to inventory. Where does that stand versus pre-pandemic levels, maybe in terms of weeks of supply or otherwise? I know it was mentioned that it seems like everyone is ordering a little bit closer to their needs, but I guess is the overall thinking that these parties feel like, can they do more with less inventory on hand?

So if you look at where we are from an inventory perspective with our customers, Luke, I would say we're at good levels. We're at a normalized level. And as I called out earlier in my remarks, over the last few years, we've been working to build back our inventory so that we can effectively get our customers to normalize levels. So I would say if you look across the board, we feel like inventory is in good shape and where it needs to be. And For the most part now, we're past all of the pandemic impacts, right, of inventories going down and then going back up again to a certain extent and then coming down, particularly on the retail side. So printware inventory is good shape, normalized levels, and I think that's great from a POS perspective because you have to have that inventory to drive the POS. That's how we see the strong growth and fleece in ringspun and across the board because everybody is effectively well replenished. On the retail side, if you look at inventory levels there, if you recall in 22, we had the impact of destocking going on in 23. That moderated a bit as we moved through the middle of the year. But as we've gotten to the end of the year and as we move into 24, on the retail side, we are again seeing tight inventory levels. I think people are being very careful in the way that they manage their inventory in this environment. And so, you know, on the retail side, I would say probably there we see it a little bit more tighter than on the printware side where that's a little bit more normalized. Whereas if you look on the retail side, people may not necessarily be replenishing to POS. They might be going a little bit lower than that in order to keep levels at, I would say, for them very well positioned, I suppose, for the macro backdrop.

Okay. Thank you very much. Okay. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Petrie with CIBC. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks. Vince, just given your background both with brands and distributors, Can you talk about your views on Gildan's positioning as a brand portfolio and if you see any holes or opportunities? You mentioned American Apparel specifically and hoping you could just expand on that and the broader topic.

Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know, the Gildan brand is even stronger than when I left the industry. The market share is enviable, as I mentioned, to be in this position. So I think that part of it is strong in terms of what we're doing in the market share. I think Chuck's you know, hinted at, uh, the ring spun and fleece where we feel like there's still a lot of opportunity to grow and would love to see those categories reach the, uh, the open end, uh, market share dominance that we have. But, um, you know, I think in the, when you look at the American apparel and comfort colors, both, I mean, I can remember buying comfort color from Barry Chouinard years ago and, and seeing where the brand is today and how it was merchandised it and the trade shows was, uh, frankly terrific. And even talking about the innovation, uh, behind the scenes with use of water and how we, how we wash the, uh, the garments and so forth. So it's what we do from there. Uh, as I said, tweaks and enhancement, you know, maybe in the, uh, you know, in the, in the marketing, um, you know, side of things don't want to get into a lot of SG and a that's, that's not the, uh, that's not the driver of this brand, uh, nor an American peril. So I don't want to make you believe that we got, we got big plans around that, but that the, the heritage of the brand with the customers, uh, I think, is strong. These distributors appreciate what the brand brings about, much like I did in the early 90s and through the early 2000s. And if anything, that's been accentuated over the years. So I just think there's opportunity still within the Gildan brand, but also in the ancillary brand of American Apparel. And as we continue to enhance that and re-energize it. And then with Comfort Colors, it's still got a great place in resort wear. It's got a great place in in the Greek ware, if you will, on college campuses. And what we do with it for here will be a lot of fun to play with.

Okay. I appreciate that. Thank you. And I wanted to also just ask about retail shelf space. How much of the programs that you won were reflected in Q4? Was that sort of fully embedded there? Is there further gains embedded in the guidance for 2024? And would you say that there's potential upside based on what you're seeing in the market today?

Mark, I would say we did have some programs in 2023 that were launched and are in our results for 2023. But in the guidance Rod gave, we also have some new retail programs in both activewear, some changes in some underwear programs that are reflected going forward, as well as I think Rod talked about some of the 2024 growth that we're going to see. We're going to see it in retail, again, through the underwear, some activewear. We're also going to see it in the hosiery side because despite the UA license non-renewal there, we are filling up that capacity with margin-enhancing programs from some other brands, so we feel good about that. Then, obviously, some of our global lifestyle brand partners on the activewear side, we see recovery there. There's definitely new programs and recovery built into our 2024 guidance kind of across each of the channels.

Okay, thanks. And I guess maybe just to follow up, Chuck, other than the SOC replacement program, because obviously the UA program doesn't expire until the end of next month, but other than that, are those programs already in place in general, or can you just give us a sense of how that plays out through the year?

Yes. Well, they're in place and they're in the plan. They're not things we're still having to go chase. They are locked in. Now we're just, you know, as we brought down manufacturing of some of the UA product, we filled it up with other product along the way. So we're able to switch that out and basically, you know, replace that with, again, margin accretive programs going forward.

And Mark, some of these programs are doing very well in the marketplace, right? When we think about the, Chuck called out on the GLB side. So In some respects, we're very pleased with our positioning. The programs that we're running with on the GLB side are winning, are gaining market share. The program that we're getting out of, the license that we're getting out of, in many respects, we see that as almost a back-to-basics initiative. So if you look at the complexity, if you look at the cost of the program, you look at the, as Chuck and I have mentioned, you know, the margin very, very low associated with that profitability in the very end. So, I mean, we're very excited, actually, in the way things are shifting because we get to use our capacity, I would say, in a more productive way. And the programs that we're behind and supporting, the GLB partners, are doing very well. They're taking share. And so our positioning on the hosiery side, I would say, is good as we, you know, as we build through 24 and 25 as we move forward longer term.

Understood. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Lee with Desjardins. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning, everyone. I just maybe have a two-part question on capital allocation. At first, you mentioned, obviously, very strong free cash flow and leverage is very solid expected for this year. I'm just wondering, in terms of your share buyback, Rod, do you expect to spend about the same amount of money on share buyback this year as you did last year?

Yeah, if we look at the share buyback, Chris, as you said, we feel very much that we are positioned to continue with our share buyback as we move through 24. I mean, we've got, I think, a strong record of returning capital to shareholders. And I do want to start by also just calling out the dividend increase that we're doing, right? So we're excited about our ability to do the the 10% dividend increase. That's the third year in a row where we've increased our dividend. And then as we think about running out return of capital to our shareholders, we very definitely think about the share buyback program. And if you think about what we've been able to do over the last few years, last year we did 7%. And we do have, I would say, a baseline positioning of being able to do about 5%. And I would say this year, again, because of overall strength of our balance sheet, our free cash flow, I wouldn't be surprised if we wouldn't be able to do a little bit more than that throughout the full year. That's how we're thinking about NCIB as we start the year.

Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe related to that is on M&A, I apologize if you made comments maybe earlier, but just what's your view on M&A overall from a capital allocation perspective?

Yeah, and this event, I think I'll take that one. I mean, the company had a kind of history in the mid-teens, that 2013-17 timeframe where there was acquisitions. But, you know, right now our capital is focused on organic. You know, I think that's when we think about what we have next, you know, related to late M&A. I don't foresee that in our plan this year as we think about it. And I think our allocation is geared towards Bangladesh. more towards innovation and organic play, not in the inorganic area.

Thanks so much, guys.

Thanks, Chris.

Your next question comes from the line of Martin Landry with Stiefel. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning, guys. I would like to dig into the Q1 guidance. You know, you're talking about... margin, which is going to be coming in at the lower end of your 18 to 20% range for Q1. But you're also talking about cotton being a tailwind in 2024. So I'm just trying to reconcile the two and trying to understand why, you know, your operating margins are going to be a little soft to start the year.

Yeah. Thanks, Martin. So if you look at Q1, I mean, the primary reason that the margins are going to be a little bit lower is because it's a smaller quarter, right? So if you think about, you know, Q1 compared to Q2, Q3, Q4, effectively gross margins in good shape, as I said, right, as we leave 23. And then from an SG&A perspective, you know, you tend to see our SG&A, because our SG&A is reasonably consistent quarter to quarter other than distribution expense. you normally see our Q1 is a little bit higher from an SG&A perspective. So if you look last year, we were at 11, 11.5% of sales. And so as we think about Q1 this year, effectively, probably around the same range is the way to think about that. And as a result of that, you end up with operating margin, you know, a little bit towards the lower end of the range. But Again, we feel like our operating margin for the full year is in great shape. We've called it out as being slightly above the high end of our range, and you'll definitely see that as we move into Q2, Q3, Q4.

Okay. And cotton prices have spiked up a little bit recently, and I was wondering how much have you covered of your needs for 2024?

Yeah, cotton has come up a little bit as of late. We see that. I mean, it's interesting, you know, when you watch the cotton markets, it's a little bit like everything else. I mean, inflation is still out there. And, you know, I would say that effectively, if you look at what's going on, and to a certain extent, that provides price stability, right, as we move through, you know, 24 and probably as you think about moving into 25. But overall, I would say we have good visibility on our cotton position. We've called that out last quarter. We generally have good visibility on our position as we move through the years. And we feel very good about, again, what we're going to have in cost of goods sold for 24 and our ability to basically drive that gross margin. Again, our pricing is, I would say, in good shape, very much aligned with our cost structure. And, you know, again, we'll see what happens with cotton and what that does, prices in the marketplace as we go forward. Maybe, again, in some places puts upward pressure on it, but overall we're in good shape.

Okay. Thank you. Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Vishal Sridhar with National Bank. Your line is open.

Hi, I was wondering about volume growth in 2024. Should we think it's in line with sales? And if not, what are the puts and takes there? And is the expectation that as Bangladesh ramps up, we should anticipate that volume growth to accelerate through the year and accelerate through 2025?

Yeah, if you look, if you assume or you think about volume growth through the year, I mean, yeah, we definitely expect to have volume growth as we move through 2024. If you heard earlier, we said we're being cautious on NICs. And we also said there are areas, we've assumed price stability, but there are some areas where we see a little bit more competitiveness. So if you put all of that together, Vishal, you can see that we are assuming good volume growth. and volume growth fundamentally a little bit better than our sales growth in order to deliver on that. And then as we move through the year, I would say that effectively we do expect it to come through. In Q1, as I said, we've got to be a little bit careful because of what's going on with the lower level of replenishment because of the strength of Q4. But as we move into Q2, Q3, Q4, you'll see that. Volume growth is a key driver, and for us, it's always a key driver. And that's how we think about basically growing our business over the long term.

Okay. And with respect to the operating margin targets, given the tax credits that's embedded in SG&A, should we think of that operating margin target of 18 to 20 being permanently moved up post-2024?

Well, I think it's a good question and something for us to think about, right, as we move through 24. As I said earlier, legislation has not been enacted yet. Effectively, we've assumed that it will be, and that it will be retroactive. But as we move through 24, obviously, we'll be assessing that. And as we move towards 25, we'll be thinking about that. I mean, I think fundamentally, it just shows, as we think about our operating target, it's and how we set that, we use it as a bit of a proxy to be able to drive return on invested capital, to drive Rona. So what we want is good top-line growth, and we want very good return on invested capital. We want efficient use of our asset base, and we use operating margin as a way to achieve that. And 18% to 20% has been a good range for us. But if ultimately, fundamentally, the landscape changes, and as we continue to actually leverage the GSG strategy, which, as you can tell, we're very, very excited about it, I think as we move to 25, we'll be assessing how we think about that target we give to you.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen McLeod with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Mr. McLeod, your line is open.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Jessie Haim for closing remarks.

Thank you, Jeannie. Once again, we'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking to you soon. Have a great day.

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.