This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
GasLog Partners LP Common Units representing limited partnership interests
Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call
10/27/2022
spk01: The conference will begin shortly. To raise your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 1 1. The conference will begin shortly. To raise your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 1 1.
spk07: Good morning. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Gas Log Partners third quarter 2022 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. On today's call, Apollo Inoizzi, Chief Executive Officer, and Achilleos Tatiolas, Chief Financial Officer. Robert Brimberg from Rosen Company will begin your conference.
spk03: Thank you and good morning or good afternoon and thanks to all for joining the Gaslog Partners third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. For your convenience, this webcast and presentation are available on the investor relations section of our website, gaslogmlp.com, where a replay will also be available. If you're participating via webcast, please note that the slide presentation is user controlled and we encourage you to advance through the presentation as you're prompted to. Please now turn to slide two of the presentation. Many of our remarks contain forward-looking statements. For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, please refer to our third quarter earnings press release. In addition, some of our remarks contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the FCC. A reconciliation of these measures is included in the appendix to the presentation. Paolo will begin today's call with a review of the partnership's third quarter highlights, following which Achilles will walk you through the partnership's financials. Paolo will then provide an update on the LNG shipping and LNG commodity markets. We will then take questions on the partnership's third quarter. With that, I will now turn the call over to Paolo Inoizzi, CEO of Gasblog Partners.
spk05: Thank you, Rob, and welcome everyone to our third quarter conference call. Please turn to slide four for Gasblog Partners' third quarter highlights. The LNG market over the third quarter has continued to be volatile as the tragic situation in Ukraine continues to develop. The natural gas market has suffered significant disruption of pipeline imports from Russia, with flows to Ukraine at approximately 30% of the five-year average, and flows to Northwest Europe falling to zero, creating a significant supply deficit. So far, the deficit has been met through increased LNG import, which rose by 63% year-over-year in the January to September period. The LNG shipping market has benefited from increased heat-borne LNG volumes, despite a nearly 6% drop in ton-mile demand, reflecting the increased flow to Europe, as charters seek term coverage against price volatility and market uncertainty. This has quickly drained the basket of available tonnage and supercharged both the spot and term markets. Today, no independently owned vessels are open for period requirements, and charters are hesitant to release vessels from their portfolio for any significant length of time. Under these exceptional circumstances, we have continued to take advantage of the strength of the LNG shipping market and have secured term charters for three of our vessels at attractive rates and duration, as I will disclose shortly. Including these new fixtures, our total contractor revenue backlog is of $616 million. Buoyancy in the market carried through the S&P has also completed the previously announced sale of the steam LNG carrier methane Shirley Elizabeth, for net proceeds of approximately 20 millions, net of debt repayment. We also agreed to sell and lease back the methane heater Sally with a financial institution with no purchase obligations or option at the end, which is expected to net us 17 millions of incremental liquidity in a great match with the charter we have fixed for her. Including the debt repayment related to the vessel sale, we retired 69.3 million in aggregate debt and lease liabilities in the quarter. We repurchased another 20 million of our preference units in the open market, bringing the total repurchases through the first nine months of the year to 38.7 million. The results are a reduction in our all breakeven levels, which further enhances our free cash flow generation potential and continued progress in our leverage ratio towards our targets as Achilles will present shortly. With enhanced cash flow visibility through the balance of 2022 and into 2023, we plan to use our healthy cash flow to continue optimizing and de-risking our balance sheet. On slide five, we highlight the charters I referenced earlier, all of which are with high-quality counterparts and had an aggregate EBITDA contribution of approximately $134 million during their contract terms. With these charters and assuming option declaration, we have significant near-term cash flow visibility as well as a good deal of exposure in 2023 in seasonal strong periods. Slide 6 shows our contracted revenues by quarter and highlights the enhanced visibility of our cash flow thanks to the recently concluded chart. As you can see from the chart on the left, we have managed our exposure to the spot market over the next 12 months while still maintaining exposure to the seasonally strong fourth quarter of the year. This provides significant downside protection given the recent rapid rise in the market. For every 10,000 per day increase in the charter equivalent on our open days, we'll increase our adjusted EBITDA by approximately 12 million. I will speak more about our market outlook shortly, but first let me turn the call over to Achilles, who will review the partnerships that quote the financial performance.
spk02: Thank you, Paolo. Turning to slide 8 and the partnership's financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Revenues for the third quarter were 96 million, a 19% increase from the third quarter of 2021. This was primarily due to an increase in revenues from our vessels operating in the spot market, as well as from no dry docking off-hire days in the third quarter of 2022 compared to 59 off-hire days in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA was 73 million, an increase of approximately 16 million or 28% from the third quarter of 2021, primarily due to a 15 million year-over-year increase in revenues and a decrease in operating expenses of 1.9 million. The decrease in operating expenses was primarily due to the favorable movement of the EURUSD exchange rate in the third quarter of 2022, fully absorbing the inflationary pressures on our costs as well as the in-house management of the Solaris following the vessel's delivery in April 2022 from Shell. Finally, our adjusted earnings were 63 cents per unit, which increased by 85% compared to the third quarter of 2021. Overall, we are pleased with our performance in the quarter as we continue to successfully recharter our fleet at healthy rates, achieving an overall stable performance for the partnerships with improved visibility on our 2023 cash flows. Turning to slide 9 and a look at our cost base. Our daily operating expenses per vessel were $12,276 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2,130 compared to the third quarter of 2021 due to the factors I just described earlier. General and administrative expenses increased by $1 million or $739 per vessel per day in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021. This increase was primarily related to an increase in the administrative service fees paid to Gaslock LTD that has been effective since January 1, 2022. As a reminder, the changes in the vessel management, commercial management and administrative service fees are in line with our commentary in the previous quarters and are disclosed in detail in our 20F5 with the SEC in March 2022. Our results were also impacted by a $4 million increase in interest expense due to an increase in LIBOR rates compared to the third quarter of 2021, partially offset by the deleveraging achieved during the last 12 months. During the third quarter of 2022, we had avoided average interest rate of 4.3% compared to an average of 2.4% during the third quarter of 2021. For the balance of the year, we maintain our previous guidance on costs and expect our unit operating expenses to average approximately 14,000 per vessel per day. Actual operating expenses will be impacted by foreign exchange movements. Finally, our overhead expenses are expected to average approximately 3,250 per vessel per day for the full year. Looking forward into 2023, we have four vessels that will undergo scheduled dry docking, which will result in off-hire days already factored into the EBITDA sensitivity analysis Paolo spoke to earlier on the call. Slide 10 illustrates the progress the partnership has continued to make in its preference unit repurchase program. During the third quarter, we repurchased an aggregate of 20 million of our preference units in the open market. Since the program was initiated in August 2021, the partnership has repurchased more than 57 million preference units in aggregate at an average price close to $25 per unit, their par value. These repurchases have reduced preference unit distributions by approximately 4.8 million or over 9 cents per common unit, on an annualized basis based on the number of preference units outstanding as of today. We expect to continue opportunistically repurchasing preference units in the open market as conditions dictate, and there are 88.7 million in Series B preference units outstanding as of today, which are callable, any or all, at par in March 2023. Slide 11. shows the progress we have made towards our leverage targets, which we first introduced in the third quarter of 2021. We have made good progress on these goals the last four quarters, despite the impairment charges we took during these previous quarters on book values of our STEAMs. During the third quarter of 2022, we repaid $37.1 million of debt and leases on scheduled amortization and $94 million in the first three quarters of this year. In addition, we repaid $32.2 million of debt outstanding in relation to the sale of methane Shirley Elizabeth in Q3 2022. As a result, our gross debt total capitalization, one of the two leveraged targets we have set, has been reduced from 53.1% as of the end of the third quarter of 2021 to 50.3% as of the end of this past quarter. Furthermore, our net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA has been reduced from 4.9 times to 3.3 times, which is currently below our long-term target. It is important to remember that our net debt to EBITDA may fluctuate based on the spot market performance in the future. We expect to continue strengthening our balances, beginning with a scheduled retirement of approximately $111 million of debt and lease principal payments in aggregate over the next four quarters, which is more than covered by our contracted cash flows over this period. Reducing debt balances and making opportunistic repurchases of preference units will further reduce the partnership's cash flow all-in break-even levels over time and increases our future free cash flow generation potential, enhancing the partnership's equity value. With that, I will turn it over to Paolo to discuss the LNG commodity and LNG shipping markets. Thank you, Achilles.
spk05: Turning to slide 13, the forces that have impacted the LNG commodity market since the beginning of 2022 did not abate this past quarter. The resulting volatility and uncertainty was a significant driver for charters, leading to a scarcity of independently owned vessels. This, in turn, led to the continued escalation in term charter rates and significant interest for charters one year or longer. The same interest and risk aversion has caused charters to have a strong preference for being long shipping and keeping vessels under their control in order to ensure security for their cargoes and retain the ability to capture opportunities as they arise. This time continues to be reflected in fixing activities with term charters representing about 54% of the total activity compared to 33% last year. It is also reflected in the decline in the spot fixture activity, which is down 37% year over year. Slide 14 presents energy demand and supply during the third quarter of 2022. European demand continues at high levels and is forecast to increase by 56% in 2022. Asian demand continues to underperform and is forecast to fall by 3% in 2022. U.S. LNG supply remained static quarter on quarter despite the Freeport outage. Small increase from other regions due to seasonally increased exports or recovery from outages led to an overall increase of 6% in the LNG supply compared to the third quarter of 2021. For the full year, overall supply is forecast to rise by 5.4%. Slide 15 demonstrates more clearly the continued volatility in the LNG prices and a positive relationship between volatility and demand for term vessels. Despite the stop of flows by the Nord Stream 1 and much lower volume to Ukraine, Europe has managed to fill its inventories above 90%. This has led to a steep downturn in commodity prices thanks also in part to high inventory levels in Asia as a result of more widespread use of coal. Europe in the meantime will continue to need high LNG flows throughout the winter and possible cold winter spells in Asia could increase competition for scarce LNG. It is also worth noting that record levels of floating storage, particularly in the Atlantic, have tied up more than 30 vessels globally, further reducing vessels availability. This shortage is a testimony of how the need for energy security, combined with a lack of infrastructure development, have created the extraordinary market condition we are all seeing. On slide 16, we show a constructive outlook for energy carrier supply and demand through the end of 2023. Despite higher than historical flows forecast from the U.S. to Europe, depressing the U.S. export multiplier, the market balance in 2023 is forecast to be tight, where normal seasonal supply deficits can be surpassed by the favor of term business driven by LNG supply security interest. Slide 17 displays the energy carrier order book and delivery schedule according to firmness. The order book has risen to 255 confirmed orders as a result of continuing level of ordering and a number of vessels being awarded out to the Qatar tender. The order book is mostly tied to long-term charters with only 14% being uncommitted. New vessels are being contracted at prices more than 245 million, and the earliest delivery dates are in the end of 2026. The impact of disordering will not be felt until all the vessels are delivered, and a number of factors could affect both the final number of vessels being delivered and the date of delivery, including availability of financing and late completion of connected infrastructure projects. Turning to 2019 and in summary. We are hoping for the fast resolution of the situation in Ukraine. It is clear that European resilience on Russian energy has ended and alternatives are being sought in the immediate future, especially from new U.S. exports. The scarcity of independently owned vessels and likelihood of continued uncertainty and volatility is likely to keep the LNG shipping market tight for the foreseeable future. The partnership has been able to monetize a strong market through profitable term charters and maintains spot exposure in the seasonal strong period next year. Finally, we continue to execute well on our strategy targets, building equity value to our shareholders. Managing our residual risk on steam carriers and strengthening our balance sheets will position the partnership to enhance total unit holder return. With that, I'd like to open the call for questions.
spk07: Thank you, sir. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your phone. Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question will come from Ben Nolan of Stiefel. Your line is open.
spk04: Yeah, good morning. I have a couple, hopefully that's okay. The first relates to the vessels that you have coming open next year. Obviously, the market is really robust at the moment and gives you the opportunity to contract things as they come due. But the first one on the list on page 22 there, the presentation is the methane Jane Elizabeth, although there's an option on that. I'm curious how you think about that vessel, both in terms of, you know, when you're talking about spot rate sensitivity in the table that's in there, but more importantly, whether it would appear as though that option is likely to be exercised or not.
spk05: Hi, Ben. It's Paolo. So, addressing your question, the Jane has an option, as you've seen, and actually has an option plus an option. And these titles are, let's say, pre-2021 fixture that actually fixtures in the COVID period. So, we consider likely that these options will be confirmed.
spk04: Okay. And so, when you're talking about your spot rate sensitivity and the cash flows that that could be, you know, um, associated, is that include, is the, is it assumed that the option is exercised or is that, um, not in that assumption? It is. Okay. Um, and then, uh, and then I guess for my second question, um, the, you've obviously made really good strides on delivering the balance sheet is, uh, is, was noted. And, and I believe that, You've even already reached the goal from a net debt to EBITDA perspective and are not too far away from the target on capitalization. And certainly, you called out paying down $111 million, I believe it was, next year in debt payments, which I would imagine would get you to below your targets. At what point, I guess, do you think pivot away from balance sheet oriented capital activities and more towards either replacement of SHIBs or growth? And I guess along with that, do you feel like this is the time from a LNG, shipping market, and asset values, everything else to be doing that, or are you better off irrespective of sort of the balance sheet to simply wait and find a better opportunity?
spk05: Good question, Ben. So let me start and then pass on to Achilles. I think we're really happy that we have made important headways on our targets, and that really has been thanks for this boy market that we discussed. So I think that that's definitely a much more comfortable position that we have been in the past years and quarters. With regards of replacement and growth, I think the point we're in today is this boy market has definitely not only affected the childhood rates, has affected the S&P market with much more liquid situation that we have ever seen. It's far away from being liquid like other commodity markets, but it has probably never seen so much interest in transactions of assets like the one we have carried out for our steam vessels. That trend you also see in the new buildings with price recording close to $250 million for standard LNG carriers. and the hurdle of ordering an asset that will only generate cash basically in 2027. So I think the next step for us is we still believe that the partnership wants to look at taking advantage of this strength in the market from an asset management point of view. I think we look with a bit of skepticism on the opportunity to jump on such high new building orders. But the beauty is that our cash position not only allows us to manage our priorities, which is achieving the target and strengthening our balance sheets and lowering our break-evens, but also allows us to look at growth, maybe also in different ways than just ordering new buildings or acquiring second-hand vessels.
spk04: Could you elaborate on that last point?
spk05: Well, I think, as we mentioned in the last quarter, we are looking very favorably at one FSAU development in the Port of Adelaide, and that's a very cash-intensive project. So that's just one example following your question, Ben.
spk04: Okay, perfect. I appreciate it. Thanks.
spk07: Thank you. One moment, please, for our next question. One moment. Our next question will come from Chris Song of Weber Research. Your line is open. Hi, good afternoon, Paulo and Achilles. How are you? Hi, Chris. Hi, Chris. We're good. I wanted to just ask about the sale and lease back. I know it's usually a financing decision, but I noticed there's no repurchase option attached, and it seems like it's just a really smart way to offload an aging steam vessel and Securing a sale price and also a charter that you're able to get through your charter. Is that right? Is that something that you can talk about too?
spk02: Yes. Thanks. I think you covered it well. It is a nice way to manage our residual value risk with Steams. We did one direct sale. the S&P market on carriers is not very developed, so there are not plenty of opportunities, and this sale in Lisbon offers us the opportunity practically to do a forward sale. There is no purchase obligation at the end or option. In this respect, at the end of the Lisbon, the vessel will go from our fleet. We have matched this duration with a very good charter so it is sold back to back and it represents a different way of reducing our steam exposure. Increasing also the liquidity today of course and without really changing our break events on the specific vessels because the sale and leaseback and the debt repayment are pretty close in terms of break events.
spk07: Right, so the bare bulk charter rate. So that kind of goes into the next question. On slide five, you guys talked about the estimated EBITDA. I just want to confirm for the methane, Sally, and all the estimated EBITDA, just to confirm, this is for the term, right? Like 38 million for 34 months. It's not like an annual figure.
spk02: It is for the full period, yes.
spk07: Okay, great. And it sounds One more question. On slide 16, I was a little surprised to see investment demand below supply. I wasn't sure, given all that we're hearing, I wasn't quite sure I understand it. So can you probably expand on that a little bit? Can you, what slide are you referring to? Slide 16, it shows the investment demand and investment supply. Yep.
spk05: Well, I think what we're showing here is we still recognize that there's a seasonal shoulder month effect expected in the supply-demand scenario for next year. And, of course, this is a speculation on where flows of cargoes will go because the biggest multiplier discussion nowadays is how much of this flow will stay in the Atlantic and how much of this flow will go back to the Pacific. and the Far East. But in general, I think we see that there's an extremely strong market in the quota one and quota four expected. And as we commented in the shoulder months, the effect that we've had today is that the shoulder months have been covered by a general increase of term business rather than spot. We have seen, you know, inefficiencies in the trade with vessels waiting, employed through the summertime because of the uncertainty of what would have laid ahead for operator and traders.
spk07: I see. Okay. Thank you, Paolo. Thanks for the call. I'll back in queue. Thank you. One moment, please, for our next question. Our next question will come from Chris Weatherby of Citi. Your line is open.
spk08: Thanks, guys, for taking the question. I wanted to come back to the earlier comments about sort of strategy, big picture strategy post deleveraging. So obviously strong market, good progress on working the balance sheet back towards your target, some cases better than your target. I guess as we sit here and sort of think about the company who's been through some challenges over the course of the last several years, if we think out over a multi-year perspective, how should we think about sort of the growth potential of this? You know, what do you think your fleet could be in a few years from now? I guess, you know, I think it would be helpful to sort of have a pretty clear picture of sort of, you know, step two past deleveraging in terms of what the strategy for Gaslog will be.
spk05: Yeah. Thank you, Chris. Look, I think the step two is what we have in mind. The step one is just to, you know, repeat again, and not for the sake of repetition, but because it's an important point. I think what we have seen coming out of the 2020 difficulties, we definitely want to make, you know, gas loopholes as sustainable through the cycle as we can. And that means that we need to be more competitive and more profitable every year and with a stronger balance sheet. And I think that's exactly what we're doing right now. And we take for granted that because of the growth and the steps we've taken so far, this is going to come very early. And we're very pleased to see that, but we're still not there yet. to where we want to be. So I think the immediate future is for us to continue on, let's call it step one, and take home all the advances and the progress that we want to make on these very steps, on these very improvements. Now, step two, as we mentioned before in the answer to Ben, it's one, are we going to be in a position to execute growth in or in whatever form and shape it will take. And if the market continues like this, and if we're, in a way, call it as good as we have done so far, then I believe there will be definitely room for us to execute on this. How exactly this is going to take shape and form, I think it's difficult for now to say. We've characterized our comments on the new building market. We're definitely keen on infrastructure projects because I think they match the step one of looking at some of our aging assets and developing long-term infrastructure investments around it. But then, you know, it will also depend on how the market will look like and what the other opportunities will come. So unfortunately, that's all the color we're able to give you right now.
spk08: Okay. I appreciate the time. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. This will end the Q&A session for this conference. I would now like to turn the conference back to Paolo Enozzi for closing remarks.
spk05: Paolo Enozzi Thank you, Chris. And thank you everyone today for listening and for your continued interest in Gaslow Partners. We definitely appreciate it and we look forward to speaking to you next quarter. Traveling has now become a much safer experience. We look forward to seeing, again, many of you in person soon. In the meantime, stay safe, and if you have any questions, contact the investor relationship team. Thank you.
spk07: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating.
spk06: You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.
spk01: The conference will begin shortly. To raise your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 1 1.
Disclaimer