GMS Inc.

Greetings and welcome to GMS Inc. Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Carrie Phelps, Vice President and Investor Relations. Thank you, Ms. Phelps. You may begin.

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the GMS Earnings Conference Call for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. I'm joined today by John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Deacon, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition to the press release issued this morning, We've posted PowerPoint slides to accompany this call in the investor section of our website at www.gms.com. As detailed on slide two, on today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties many of which are beyond our control and may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today. As a reminder, forward-looking statements represent management's current estimates and expectations. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in the future. Listeners are encouraged to review the more detailed discussions related to these forward-looking statements contained in the company's filings with the SEC. including the risk factors section in the company's 10-K and other periodic reports. Today's presentation also includes a discussion of certain non-GAAP measures. The definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are provided in the press release and presentation slides. Please note that references on this call to the third quarter of fiscal 2024 relate to the quarter ended January 31, 2024. Once we begin the question and answer session of the call, in the interest of time, we kindly request that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. With that, I'll turn the call over to John Turner, whose discussion will begin on slide three. JP?

Thank you, Carrie, and thank you all for joining us today. I would also like to thank our team for once again executing against our key initiatives and delivering outstanding service and solid results this quarter. Volume growth was realized across all of our major product categories, as we benefited both from our organic efforts and from the contributions of recent acquisitions. And, except in steel, pricing remained resilient and, in total, accretive to growth as compared with a year ago. Our increase in total net sales versus last year was achieved despite significant steel price deflation, which we expected along with the near-term headwind of adverse weather conditions that we faced in late January. Typical weather forced all but one of our geographic divisions to shut down locations temporarily during the week of January 15th, delaying sales into the early part of our fourth quarter. Still, even with these challenges, we were pleased to deliver third quarter net income of $51.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of $128 million, which were both above our previously communicated expectations. During the quarter, strong multifamily and commercial in-market demand, along with an improving single-family backdrop and gains from acquisitions, helped drive volume growth in wallboard, ceilings, steel framing, and complementary products. And these trends are expected to continue as we anticipate delivering both year-over-year and sequential growth in net sales for our fourth quarter as we close out fiscal 2024 at the end of April. While multifamily permits and starts do indicate a forthcoming slowdown, likely in the back half of this calendar year, for now there remains a significant number of units still under construction. Commercial is also expected to continue its current pace of solid demand as our internal and external channel checks indicate levels of backlog consistent with those we experienced in our third quarter. For single family, we are encouraged by the continuing uptick in new home orders reported by our builder customers and the three-month consecutive rise in builder confidence levels, reflecting expectations for an improving mortgage rate environment and the pronounced foundation of pent-up need for housing in a relatively supply-constrained environment. In addition, we are pleased with the continued resilience of pricing in Wallboard, reinforcing what we continue to believe is a structurally changed industry, with low levels of recent new or planned capacity and rising manufacturing costs, particularly given the declining availability of synthetic gypsum. Pricing in sealings and complementary products has also held up well, while steel framing has performed as expected, with prices down substantially year over year. Although raw steel price indices began escalating roughly four months ago, it appears that these have now reached a near-term peak As such, while we expect our prices to slightly increase sequentially for our fiscal fourth quarter, those prices will likely flatten for at least the near term thereafter. While navigating the near term dynamics in end market demand and pricing, our teams have continued to deliver solid results and have maintained their focus on the successful execution of our four strategic pillars, which are highlighted on slide four. Measuring against data from the Gypsum Association, the Steel Framing Industry Association, and manufacturer disclosures, we believe that we have continued to expand our share in each of our core product categories. Customers across our end markets are seeing the value that our scale, expertise, product breadth, and commitment to delivering outstanding service provide. In recent months, we have successfully secured a range of new projects. including expanding activity with some of the nation's largest residential home builders, while also winning commercial work in those sectors, which remain most active, primarily manufacturing, medical, education, government, and data centers, as well as participation in many of the mega-projects underway across the country. Second, our complementary products category continues to grow as an increasingly important part of our product mix, This category has made up 30% of our sales so far this fiscal year, and as we've said in previous quarters, our aim is to grow this category at twice the rate of our core products. In particular, we are placing emphasis on tools and fasteners, heaps and stucco, and insulation, which collectively grew 11.7% for the quarter, while the total complementary products category grew 7.3%. Over time, we expect to continue to drive accelerated growth in this margin accretive segment as a percentage of our overall net sales. Third, we are seeing success with our many productivity initiatives and our push to drive complexity costs out of the business, while further realizing the benefits of our attractive scale position. Equipping our yard operators with the right tools and technologies continues to improve the efficiency of their operations. Our e-commerce advancements are providing an enhanced customer experience and, among other features, offer an avenue for quick product pricing and order information, together with easy online payments, which customers are increasingly taking advantage of. Additionally, we are consolidating a number of our legacy legal entities and merging back-of-house functionality, thereby reducing organizational and process complexity, along with costs, while also leveraging the standardization of our product, vendor, customer, and other operational data across the business. Collectively, These initiatives help drive additional profitability in the business and make us better operators, further positioning GMS as the provider of choice for our customers. Finally, our fourth strategic pillar is to expand our platform to accretive acquisition and greenfield opportunities. During the third quarter, we opened three new greenfields, and we continue to focus on M&A to drive growth, with attractive opportunities in both our core and complementary businesses. In late December, as highlighted on slide five, We capitalized on one of these opportunities and announced our agreement to purchase Camco Supply Corporation, a leading distributor of building products in the New York City market. We are very excited about the prospects of this transaction, which we expect to close in the coming days. Camco's values and highly regarded execution discipline align very well with our own, and we are pleased to welcome the company's leadership and employees as they join GMS. Bringing CAMCO into the GMS family of brands represents a unique opportunity to advance our strategic priorities, including expanding share in our core products and geographic expansion in the highly attractive New York City market. Additionally, as we continue to drive complementary product sales, this transaction will present cross-selling opportunities with other GMS operations in the area, including further expanding our leadership position in Wallboard. We are very excited about becoming one of the top distributors in this key region, and will look to leverage CAMCO's excellent reputation for customer service and operational execution as a base for further organic and inorganic expansion. Before turning the call over to Scott, who will cover more on this exciting transaction and our business results, I want, once again, to thank our team for maintaining our high level of service and performance during the quarter. We again successfully demonstrated the benefits of our end market balance. and the flexibility and expertise we have in servicing each one. I am confident that we will continue to drive further growth and profitability as we execute on our strategic priorities. With that, I will turn the call over to Scott.

Thanks, JT. Good morning, everyone. As just mentioned, in late December, we entered into an agreement to acquire Canco Supply Corporation and Affiliates for a purchase price of $321.5 million. inclusive of additional consideration in connection with the exit of a legacy pension fund. CAMCO, which generated $235 million in revenue during the 12 months into December 31st, 2023, has four legacy locations in the greater New York City market, including yards in Brooklyn, Manhattan, Long Island, and Patterson. Plus, they recently added an important new greenfield location in the Bronx, which we believe will meaningfully add to CAMCO's top-line growth. Before any expected synergies, CAMCO has historically generated EBITDA margins roughly in line with the broader GMS business. In addition, over the next 24 to 36 months, we expect this transaction to generate cost and revenue synergies through the integration of our distribution networks and purchasing programs, cross-selling opportunities, notably for wallboard and complementary products, and SG&A savings. Moreover, as an asset transaction, we will have substantial tax benefits from intangibles amortization. All in, including these synergies and tax attributes, we expect to pay just above a 7.5 times pro forma EBITDA multiple for this business. We expect to fund this transaction with cash on hand and from borrowings under our ADL, which we expect would, all else being equal, briefly raise our net debt leverage ratio by less than one-half turn before we're returning to our current level over approximately the next year. We are very pleased to be nearing the close of this highly strategic transaction. With that, let me move on to our results for our fiscal third quarter. Starting with slide six, net sales for the quarter increased 1.9 percent to $1.3 billion. as volume growth across all of our major product categories, coupled with resilient pricing for nearly all of our product lines, helped to offset an estimated $55 million of steel price deflation, assuming current volumes have been sold at prior year prices. Also, as JT mentioned, in mid-January, harsh weather conditions across much of our service territory delayed project demand and slowed delivery execution. pushing an estimated $15 million of net sales into our fiscal fourth quarter. This also forced some temporary operational inefficiencies as our teams added weekend and overtime hours to keep our customers' projects moving forward. Commercial and multifamily activity levels remained solid during the quarter, while the sentiment around single-family demand is improving. Our recent acquisitions, such as EMJ and Tanner, also contributed positively to our quarter's results. Organically, consolidated sales were essentially flat as compared with the same period a year ago. From a USN market perspective, multifamily sales dollars grew 8.2% year-over-year, while single-family sales dollars declined 6.1%, resulting in a total residential sales dollar decline of 2.4%. Commercial sales dollars in the US grew 1.7%, as increased sales volumes were muted by significant steel price deflation. Wallboard sales dollars of $520.7 million were up 4% over the same period last year, with multifamily and commercial volumes up 12.7% and 7.9% respectively. Single family volumes were down only 2.3% year-over-year, and based on our current run rates, given increasing sequential growth, we expect this comparison to turn positive for our fiscal fourth quarter. Organically, third quarter wallboard sales were up 3.5 percent compared with the prior year period, comprised of a 3.6 percent increase in volume with a nearly flat price and mix component. For the third quarter, the average realized wallboard price was $473 per thousand square feet, flat with a year ago and down slightly from our fiscal second quarter. Overall, wallboard pricing continues to be resilient despite year-over-year declines in single-family wallboard volumes for now five consecutive quarters. With continued improvement anticipated in the single-family space and a developing renewal of price increase negotiations, we expect for wallboard pricing to improve at least slightly both sequentially and year-over-year for our fiscal fourth quarter. Ceiling sales at $155.7 million in the quarter were up 6.1%, all from the benefit of increased volumes, as any price benefits were offset by mix. Organic sales in ceilings grew 4.2%, with a 4.3% increase in volumes, slightly offset by a 0.1% decrease from price and mix. Third quarter steel framing sales of $203.4 million were down 13.3% versus the prior year quarter, as deflationary pricing drove a 24.3% decline in price and mix, while volumes increased 11%. Organically, steel framing sales were down 14%, with a 24.2% decline in price and mix, partially offset by a 10.2% increase in volume. While prices for steel framing products were down 21.9% year-over-year and 4% on a sequential basis, multiple framing manufacturers have issued notices of upcoming price increases. As a result, we expect for the year-over-year declines in pricing to continue to moderate as we finish out fiscal 2024, with some sequential improvement expected for our fourth quarter. Complementary product sales of $378.6 million for a quarter grew 7.3% year-over-year in total and 1.8% on an organic basis, representing the 15th consecutive quarter of through-the-cycle growth for this category. Expansion of complementary products, particularly for tools and fasteners, heaps and stucco, and insulation, continues to be a key element of our strategic priorities. We are sharing commercial and purchasing best practices across the organization to promote the advancement of these product lines, building on our desire to expand this margin accretive category through both organic and inorganic means. Now, turning to slide seven, which highlights our profitability for the quarter. Gross profit of $414.7 million increased 3.1% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting improved volumes and the associated attainment of calendar year-end volume incentive targets, partially offset by deflationary dynamics and steel pricing. Gross margin of 33% was up 40 basis points as compared to 32.6% a year ago, despite the steel deflation, incrementally benefited mostly from a realization of the purchasing incentives. Selling general and administrative expenses were $295.7 million for the quarter, an increase of $28.3 million over the prior year quarter, nearly $10 million of that increase related to recent acquisitions and newly opened greenfield locations. The remaining organic increase was primarily driven by labor and other expenses, particularly those elevated by the higher cost-to-serve mix and high volume of commercial and multifamily in-market demand. SG&A as a percentage of net sales was 23.5 percent, an increase of 180 basis points from the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Along with the items I just noted for SG&A expenses, reduced revenue from steel price deflation negatively impacted SG&A leverage by 100 basis points, and the weather-related revenue delays and associated operational inefficiencies had an estimated 30 basis points of additional unfavorable impact. Adjusted SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales of 22.9 percent increased 150 basis points from 21.4 percent in the prior year quarter. All in, and with 10.9 percent higher interest expense, net income decreased 19.9 percent to $51.9 million for the quarter, or $1.28 per diluted share, compared to net income of $64.8 million, or $1.53 per diluted share, a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA of $128 million decreased 9.1% or $12.8 million as compared with a year ago, and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 10.2% compared to last year's third quarter level of 11.4%. Now, shifting to our balance sheet, which is highlighted on slide 8. At January 31st, we had cash on hand of $88.3 million and $866.3 million of available liquidity under our revolving credit facility. We have no near-term debt maturities, and our net adjusted EBITDA debt leverage at the end of the quarter was 1.5 times, improved from 1.6 times a year ago. Given the approaching CAMCO transaction closure, we expect to end the fourth quarter with net debt leverage of approximately 1.8 times. before monitoring back towards our current level over the next 12 months or so. Just after the end of our third quarter, we opportunistically repriced our term loan B at SOFR plus 225, successfully achieving a 75 basis point improvement, which represents a $3.7 million annualized interest expense savings as compared to the prior terms, or a $2.6 million annual benefit to net income. Our loan agreement will expire in May of 2030, consistent with its prior term. For the quarter, cash provided by operating activities was $104.3 million compared to $134.1 million a year ago. Free cash flow was $94.1 million compared to $122.5 million for the same period last year. For the full year, we expect free cash flow generation of approximately $55 million to 60% of adjusted EBITDA. Capital expenditures of $10.2 million for the quarter compared to $11.6 million a year ago. We continue to expect that for the full year fiscal 2024, capital expenditures will be approximately $56 million to $58 million. We repurchased another 370,000 shares of stock during the quarter for $24.8 million. and had $216.5 million of share purchase authorization remaining at January 31st. We have a solid balance sheet with no near-term maturities and an attractive capital structure, providing an effective foundation for the execution of our strategic priorities. Of note, on the strength of our business and the health of our balance sheet, GMS was upgraded earlier this month by Moody's Investor Service to BA1, putting us now only one notch below investment grade. Looking forward, we expect to maintain our balanced approach to capital allocation as we intend to continue to invest in the business, seek additional M&A opportunities, and opportunistically leverage favorable market conditions to repurchase shares. I want to thank our team for the remarkable efforts to flex our operations as demand has shifted over time and for their commitment to drive improved profitability, all while maintaining exceptional levels of service. Before turning the call over to JT to provide a review of our outlook and fourth quarter projections, let me highlight two housekeeping items. First, please note that there are 64 selling days during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 as compared with 63 in the prior year period. And second, the projections that JT will provide exclude any potential benefits from the CAMCO transaction. However, once the transaction closes, likely in the next few days, we would expect CAMCO to add approximately 20 million in net sales with approximately $2 to $2.5 million of adjusted EBITDA for each full month as part of GMS during our fiscal fourth quarter. With that, I'll now turn the call over to JT. He will start on slide nine.

Thank you, Scott. Looking forward, we are encouraged by what we believe lies ahead for GMS. On our call in December, we spoke about the likelihood of a potential air pocket in commercial activity starting sometime during calendar 2024. While still a likely eventuality at some point, it appears to be further down the road than we would have expected, and likely less pronounced in both duration and severity. The strength in the US economy, the myriad large-scale infrastructure stimulus programs, and the expectation of reduced interest rates and loosening lending conditions in the back half of 2024 provide more optimism than previously anticipated. assuming that the still present risk of a broad contagion of commercial loan defaults is avoided. And in the very near term, our backlog would indicate similar levels of commercial activity in Q4 as in our previous quarter. Our commercial volumes remain solid, with particularly high demand for steel products. Also, February has proven to be a strong month, not only for commercial, but across our other end markets. albeit in part due to the work that was weather-delayed at the end of our third quarter. Single-family demand is improving, and we expect it to show year-over-year improvement for the full calendar year of 2024. For multifamily, despite a reduction in starts, its current backlog continues to drive construction activity, and we expect it to do so for at least the next couple of quarters. Given this backdrop and starting with wallboard volumes, we anticipate commercial be up mid to high single digits for our fiscal fourth quarter on a per day basis. Multi-family wall board volumes are expected to grow low single digits as compared with the prior year period, as we are progressively facing much tougher year-ago comparisons. And single family wall board volumes are expected to be up low single digits, which, if realized, will represent the first positive year-over-year comparison for single family wall board volume in a year and a half. In total, Wallboard volumes are expected to be up low single digits per day as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Pricing for wallboard is expected to remain resilient, with price increase negotiations currently underway. As such, for our fiscal fourth quarter, we expect wallboard prices to be up slightly in the low single digits, both sequentially and as compared to a year ago. In ceilings, given our expectation of continued solid demand in our commercial land market, We expect low to mid single digit per day increases year over year for volume and a mid single digit increase for price and mix. For steel framing, as I stated earlier, demand is expected to remain solid with per day volumes up in the mid teens for the fourth quarter. While our prices appear to have stabilized in steel framing for now, they still lag last year's level with a year over year decline in the low teens expected on a per day basis. Finally, net sales for our complementary products are expected to grow high single digits on a per day basis, as compared with the fourth quarter a year ago. All in, as shown on slide 10, including the additional sales dollars that were pushed into Q4 due to weather delays, and factoring in an expectation for approximately $25 million of year-over-year deflation in steel pricing, we anticipate net sales per day to increase mid-single digits, as compared with a year ago. We also expect that the steel price deflation will negatively impact SG&A as a percentage of sales by an estimated 40 basis points. For gross margin, without the benefits we saw in Q3 when we achieved new volume tiers associated with year-end incentives, and as single family begins to increase as a component of our mix, we expect our gross margin to be approximately 32.2% for the fourth quarter. Altogether, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $145 million to $150 million for the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, we believe that we will again see the dynamics of our end markets shift, with strength building for single-family, while construction will likely reach completion by calendar Q3 on a substantial portion of what remains of the multifamily backlog. We are currently expecting commercial to continue with activity levels that are similar to what we just reported for at least the next couple of quarters. Given that, with a balanced mix of end markets, our team is ready for these expected shifts and has demonstrated our ability to flex as needed to best serve our customers. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your questions from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of David Manti with Baird. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. JT, I think you just said that Wallboard, you expected it in the fourth quarter to be up low single digits year over year and quarter over quarter. I want to check if I have that right. And also, I have 481 per thousand in the last fourth quarter. I just want to check those facts. Is that correct?

Are you talking volume and price or just price?

They're just talking price.

Yeah, so sequentially we expect it to improve, and year over year we expect it to be up slightly. I'm looking to see if that quarter number was right.

481, and just so you know, we ended the third quarter at a roughly 480, and February was tracking higher, closer to 490. Okay. Okay.

Yeah, that was just the question is that customer reaction to those February increases must be fairly good given that you're already seeing an effect here just four weeks in, right?

Yeah, I mean, customer reactions are never good to price increases, but the reality is there are parts of the market where we are able to get slightly better prices at the moment.

Got it. Okay, and then second question. Although it's negative for revenues and operating margins, does lower steel pricing have a positive mix effect on your gross margin? And if you just remind us in stack rank terms where steel ranks relative to your other segment, your product segments.

It's third, but its gross margins are pretty good. So complimentary products, wall board, Steel, very close to wallboard, actually, at this point, in gross margin percent. And then ceilings is the lowest of the gross margin percentages.

Okay. So with steel being down in the mix, that actually might be slightly gross margin accretive when you think about the effect of that.

I mean, slightly, right? I mean, it depends on the growth in the other categories. But, yes, with all that volume growth, though, the sales dollars will still be pretty significant. So it's, you know, 10 basis points maybe at the max, right, kind of deal, not a lot.

Okay. Got it. Thanks very much.

Yep. Thank you. Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Noah Narcosco with Stevening. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Hi, Noah. Hi.

So first, I wanted to touch on the wallboard price again. Really encouraging to see some improvement here finally seems to be corresponding with single family. But I guess as we think longer term throughout calendar year 24, I think we should continue to see strong single family volumes. Is that kind of low single digit growth a good kind of ballpark to think about just in terms of holding on to that price? that you got here in the fiscal 4Q as we look to maybe the next three quarters?

I would say yes, and you're right. It's fully dependent on the strength in the single-family market.

And just to follow up on that point, that even considers some maybe mixed impact as you see, you know, a negative mixed impact as you see more single-family?

That's right.

All right, great. And then one last one for me. You know, it sounds like your commentary around commercial has really improved. Just hoping to get a little bit more detail there on what specific kind of end markets within commercial you're seeing that strength. You know, the leading indicators still kind of point a not so rosy picture as we look forward. So maybe kind of help us understand what's driving your slightly differentiated view here.

I think that if you look at just purely the ABI and you look at the impact of multifamily on the ABI, it's a huge drag. So what you're seeing is you're seeing a much bigger headline decline, and we've already kind of accounted for that expected multifamily decline. Multifamily in our business, 15% to 17%. So we've kind of accounted for that and expect that in the back half. So it's not as huge a drag for us as that headline ABI would indicate. Underneath that, you're seeing a lot of strength in those categories I talked about earlier. You're seeing a lot of megaproject activity, chip plants and car plants and all of the supporting infrastructure around all of that out there. You're seeing strength in medical. You're seeing strength in data centers. No slowing down in data centers, particularly with this AI revolution. going on. So a lot of the categories that have been driving the strength today continue to drive the strength tomorrow. And I think the mega projects probably offset a lot of the smaller commercial that's having a really hard time being funded. All that being said, the expectation is, and you guys are probably watching the PCE this morning because I don't have my phone with me at the moment, but that's probably out already. So I do think that the interest rate environment with most of the expectations being a June start for the Fed funds rate to come back down again, I think that that would create this loosening of this tight funding situation that small commercial and medium commercial is facing. And that's important to happen. And I do think it's going to happen. But I think that's part of the positivity that I'm conveying is that large commercial, already funded, already in the pipeline, is going to continue. And hopefully what we see is we see those interest rates moderate into the back half of this year, and really more importantly, the lending environment improves for commercial activity. Those things all come together, and I believe we'll be fine. I think that, like we said, it's probably going to decline. There'll be an air pocket, but it'll be later in the year, and it'll probably be not as severe as I would have possibly thought at the end of the last quarter.

Well, that's really encouraging. I appreciate all the color there. Thanks for the time.

Absolutely. Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Kirk Engel with DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Hi, Kirk. If we look at I guess the 80 basis point decline and gross margin that's expected in Q4, is that primarily the purchase incentives falling off? Maybe a little bit of single family mix dynamic there with wallboard? Or are there any other kind of big factors within that expectation?

No, it's basically the expectation that We had a pleasant surprise last year in the achievement of some of these goals that happened in the fourth quarter. We probably don't expect to see that again. So that's really one of the biggest reversals from quarter to quarter and year over year.

Okay. Makes sense. And then, you know, CAMCO's a bit of a bigger deal. Talked about net leverage going up to, you know, just under 1.8 times. I guess as you think about deleveraging from that, does that impact the appetite for M&A over the next couple quarters as you integrate and work down that net leverage a bit? Or do you still feel pretty comfortable with where that stands? And if the right opportunity comes up, there wouldn't be very much hesitancy.

Bill Meyers- Yeah, first to clarify, I wouldn't say it's just under 1.8. I think probably 1.8 is probably the better number. I don't want to oversell sort of what we'll be able to do there. But it doesn't lower our appetite at all. As we said, we'll be able to get over a year's time based on combined cash flows of the business back to our current levels and on all of the strategic initiatives and deployment things that we're doing, you know, it still pedals down. We are really comfortable with our debt leverage. As we noted, we just got an upgrade from Moody's just based on the strength of our balance sheet. So we're content with where it's positioned and think it gives us a lot of platform to continue to do what we're doing strategically.

Okay, great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the color. Thank you. Thanks.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with True Securities. Please go ahead.

Okay, thank you. Just a couple questions, but one quick one. The guidance for fiscal fourth quarter, I assume that does not include CAMCO. Is that correct?

Yes, that's correct.

And do you have any kind of update when you expect it to close?

Within the coming days.

Okay, short term. Okay. Yeah. And then your commentary on the commentary on San Luis. I know there's some mixed stuff going on here. compressing the AUV. Is that something that's going to run long term? It's happened in past quarters. Is there something specific going on there? Or is this something that should change for you in the coming periods?

It's just in market related, right? I mean, it just depends on the activity for that individual quarter. If we end up with more education or more of the low end, then the mix is down. If we get more office or we get more medical, then the mix will increase. I think we're talking about having a more normalized mix this coming quarter when we gave the guidance there, which is pricing up and volume up. So we're not expecting to see a continuation, let's say, of a decline in mix over the long haul. It's really just project dependent.

Okay. And then I just have a question. The view, the short-term view of commercial, excuse me, of, well, just a generally constructive view on commercial in general. Are you seeing enough office remodel activity that that could be an actual growth sector for you in the next year or so? Is it big enough for this whole move to an office that's cheaper in price and all that stuff that's going on? Is that big enough to offset whatever continued pressure we feel in new office construction?

You know, it's not realizing itself in activity yet, but it's certainly a lot of chatter. right, out there. And I wouldn't say that we have in our forecast considered a huge rebound in 24 in office. I do think that in 25, or maybe even in the late 24, there will be some resolution in some of these larger markets with some of this empty space, as well as some of the lending situations around some of those properties. If those properties move and or change hands, regardless of what the price is, Those new owners will do something with those buildings. And when that happens, that's good for us. But we're not in my, you know, my optimism. I'm not considering that in the 2024 calendar year. If that would be positive upside.

Okay, great. Thank you very much. Thanks, Keith.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with ComSIM Research Group. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to get a little more color on the CAMCO deal. Good to hear that the margin profile is similar to yours. I'm curious if there is some margin enhancement opportunity there or if it's more volume growth, or if it's shifting their mix to maybe look a little bit more like GMS with complimentary products, just any way you want to elaborate on that.

It's all the above. I would say that there's opportunity in all those areas. I think there's purchasing synergy here, a little bit of GNA, not a lot of GNA opportunity because of the unique geography here. We don't have much overlap at all. As a matter of fact, we don't have any overlap at all. in our businesses today. So from that respect, the G&A savings comes in things like insurance and smaller areas. But we also have the ability, we believe, to enhance the mix, but also drive some more volume in wallboard. We called that out specifically. We think we might be able to help on the wallboard side.

I'll just add too, Steven, we've got the overhead of the Bronx location in those margins as well. So that's an exciting new opportunity to serve that borough of the city. And as those revenues grow, we'll get a lot of air cover for revenues over those overhead costs that will help out the overall profitability of the business as well.

Yeah, I would call out anybody on the call listening from Canco as well, visits we've had up there. That is an exceptional Greenfield facility.

one of the best I've ever seen being open in a very, very short period of time. Okay, great.

And then zooming out on slide eight, the three-year cash usage, over 50% to acquisition, 18% to repurchase, 15% to CapEx. I'm curious if you foresee over the next three years that the capital usage could be something similar to that, or if you think that mix morphs a bit over time?

Well, I would guess it would probably lean, if it's going to change, it's going to lean more towards M&A than anything else. And we've got a strong backlog.

We've got a good M&A engine. It's a core competency for us. And I think with rates moderating and coming down, I'd expect to see the M&A market also accelerate a little bit. So probably more towards M&A.

It wouldn't be a significant shift, maybe 5 to 10 points of percentage, but directionally that's spot on.

Excellent. That's great color. Thank you. Thank you.

Next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my questions. I also wanted to ask about Camco, and my line just cut out for a minute, so apologies if Steven just asked this, but just in terms of their current mix of business, can you help us understand what the current mix is from a product category and market standpoint, and then on the recent trends, if the 23 revenues are slightly down versus the prior kind of trailing 12-month numbers you had provided, and so a little more color on their organic trends currently and what you would expect organically for them in the upcoming quarters?

They are more weighted towards, and again, we haven't closed, so I don't have all the details sitting right in front of me, but they are more heavily weighted towards seedlings. They are an excellent seedlings distributor. probably the best from an independent perspective out there in an exceptionally strong market for ceilings. So they're a little more weighted towards ceilings. The balance, they're a little underweighted in complimentary versus us and underweighted in wallboard versus us. And while we'll close in the next couple of days and get a lot more information on their sales,

It would be a guess to tell you, but I believe it's the same steel conditions that we're facing primarily. Okay, that makes sense.

And then looking at the numbers, so again, this is kind of back of the envelope, but it seems like you're suggesting their legacy EBITDA might have been around kind of mid-20s million. And if I look at your post-synergy multiple, it suggests you expect to get that up to around you know, that's not insignificant in terms of the magnitude of synergies when you don't have current geographic overlap. So, I know you articulated where they're coming from at a high level. Can you give us a little more color on the relative contribution of cost synergies, sales synergies, and then if the greenfield location is included in that number, and should we expect the greenfield to be about, as ramps, to be about the same size as their legacy branches?

Yes is the answer to the last question. It's a very large facility, actually. It's an outstanding facility, a beautiful building, well-stocked, great operational capability. And yes, we've given them credit for that, and the growth expectation there is included in our synergy number. A lot of effort. You can imagine trying to get a facility up and running in the Bronx, the years of effort that it takes through permitting and investments, et cetera. We feel really fortunate about that opportunity. Wallboard opportunity is another significant synergy, both on the selling side, but also on the cost side there, as well as several other product cost opportunities. If you were to look at purchasing synergy, the Bronx, that's the large majority of the synergy that we've got in there, as well as a little bit of overall growth in the market. And the least contributive is the G&A piece, which again is things more like benefits and scale advantages we have in leases and interest expenses and things like that.

Keep in mind, too, that because it's an asset transaction, we also get a significant tax amortization benefit from this. which is essentially locked in for the next 15 years. And so think about that as more almost a reduction in price versus an EBITDA enhancement.

Okay. That all makes sense. And if I could just sneak one last one in, in terms of timing, obviously to your best point that tax savings is an ongoing one, but timing of realization for the other synergies, how should we think about that ramp?

Well, I mean, purchasing synergies are fairly quick. They'll happen in the very near term. Over the course of the next quarter plus, we'll be doing that. Growth in the Bronx is growth in the Bronx. It's a startup operation. So that's kind of the tail end of the 24 to 36 months we talked about. So you have the tax benefit on an immediate basis. You've got purchasing synergies more on an immediate basis. Small G&A savings on an immediate basis. And then the ramp up in the Bronx is the one that's going to take the longer period of time.

And the cross-selling ramp-up of Wallboard and complimentary will take a little bit of time to get that foothold in place as well.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. The final question comes from the line of Zach Pacheco with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks for taking my question this morning. I was wondering what are your current expectations on how long the multifamily backlog will last before any slowdown in multifamily big ends to show up in a Walborn demand?

Like calendar third quarter, I'd expect to see things start to soften.

Okay. Understood. And then I know you said closing in a couple of days here, but just wanted to ask on the M&A pipeline, if you could provide any more color on maybe improvement in seller expectations or kind of just your guys' sentiment moving forward. Thanks.

I mean, you know, sellers' expectations vary depending on the market and the strategic nature of it to us, et cetera. But our pipeline is solid with our normal kind of, you know, range of multiples, you know. This one's unique because of that Bronx location. you know, really strong in Canada, where we're spending a lot of time and energy up there, really building our leadership position, but also very strong here in the U.S. as well. So no shortage of opportunity when it comes to that.

Understood. I appreciate it. Thanks. Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference.

You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.