Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Jenko Shipping and Trading Limited second quarter 2022 earnings conference call and presentation. Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Jenko's website at www.jenkoshipping.com. To inform everyone, Today's conference is being recorded and is now being webcast at the company's website www.jenkoshipping.com. We will conduct a question and answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference will be accessible anytime during the next two weeks by dialing 888-203-1112 or 7194570820 and entering the passcode 7679501. At this time, I will turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Before we begin our presentation, I note that in this conference call, we've been making certain forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements use words such as anticipate, budget, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe, and other words in terms of similar meaning in connection with the discussion of potential future events, circumstances, or future operating or financial performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and observations. for discussion of factors that could cause results to differ. Please see the company's press release that was issued yesterday, the materials relating to this call posted on the company's website, and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2021, and the company's reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K subsequently filed with the SEC. At this time, I would like to introduce John Robinsmith, Chief Executive Officer of Penco Shipping and Trading Limited.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to GENCO's second quarter 2022 conference call. I will begin today's call by reviewing our Q2 2022 and year-to-date highlights, providing an update, comprehensive value strategy, financial results for the quarter, and the industry's current fundamentals before opening the call up for questions. For additional information, please also refer to our earnings presentation posted on our website. Jenco's earnings power remains strong and we continue to benefit from the significant operating leverage of our sizable fleet and best-in-class commercial operating platform. During the second quarter of 2022, Jenco achieved strong financial results with our earnings improving sequentially from the first quarter while rising nearly 50% on a year-over-year basis. During the quarter, we continued to successfully execute our value strategy, which is focused on paying meaningful and sustainable dividends throughout the cycles, deleveraging, and capitalizing on compelling growth opportunities for the benefit of shareholders. Most notably, we declared a dividend of 50 cents per share for the second quarter of 2022, representing an annualized yield of 10% based on our current share price. We have now paid 12 consecutive quarterly dividends, totaling $3.01 per share. Having front loaded the majority of our dry docking CapEx in the second quarter of 2022, we anticipate our third quarter dividend to rise substantially. The quarter to quarter variance in dry docking CapEx alone represents a $0.37 per share gain in Q3 versus Q2. Genco's balance sheet strength and low breakeven levels remain core differentiators of us versus our publicly traded peers. Along with substantial dividends, we also prioritized debt paydowns as we continue to lower our overall cash flow breakeven rates, which we believe is essential for paying dividends across volatile rate environments. These measures, together with those executed in 2021, have led GENCO to create the most compelling risk-reward model in the dry bulk public markets through a combination of low financial leverage, high operating leverage, and industry-low cash flow breakeven rates. Continuing to pay down debt during a time that we do not have any mandatory debt repayments is consistent with our medium-term goal to reduce our net debt position to zero. During the quarter, we maintained an intense focus on rewarding shareholders through distributing compelling dividends while continuing to delever, which in turn we believe enables sustainable dividends over the long term. We view this deleveraging as prudent to further improve our financial standing over time so that Genco is in an even stronger position to take advantage of attractive growth opportunities as markets develop. From an earnings perspective, we generated a strong time charter equivalent rate during the quarter of $28,756 per day, an increase of 36% from the same period in 2021. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2022, we again expect a firm TCE as we have approximately 79% of our available days booked at $25,059 per day. In terms of current market trends, for the balance of the year, we believe a rise in iron ore export volumes and China's stimulus measures to be supportive for freight rates, particularly for the major bulk vessels from current levels. Our overall constructive outlook for the dry bulk market, though, centers around the historically low order book as a percentage of the fleet. As a direct result of this low order book, demand growth has a low threshold to exceed in order to outpace supply growth to further tighten market fundamentals. At this point, I will now turn the call over to Apostolos Sofolios, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, John. During the second quarter, we took advantage of a strong earnings environment to continue to pay down debt as we maintain a commitment to reducing leverage and break evens, and have demonstrated the operating leverage of our fleet and ability to return significant capital to shareholders. On a cumulative basis, since the start of 2021, we have paid down $261 million of debt for 58%, enabling Banko to achieve a net loan-to-value of 12%. Notably, the current stock value of our fleet is over two times our debt outstanding. For the second quarter of 2022, we declared a $0.50 per share dividend, representing an annualized yield of 10%. As John mentioned, we believe we're well positioned to increase the dividend in the third quarter. For Q2 2022, the company recorded net income of $47.4 million or $1.12 basic and $1.10 diluted earnings per share. Our second quarter EBITDA was $64.2 million as compared to $50.2 million for the same period last year. Our cash position as of June 30, 2022 was $50.6 million Our revolver availability as of June 30 was $219 million, therefore resulting in a total liquidity position of $270 million, which provides significant flexibility for us to continue delivering under the three pillars of our comprehensive value strategy. In Q2 of 2022, we voluntarily paid down debt totaling $8.75 million, representing our run rate quarterly voluntary debt repayment. Although we have no mandatory debt amortization payments until 2026, when the facility matures, we plan to continue to voluntarily deliver with a medium-term objective of reducing our net debt to zero. Following our substantial deleveraging since the beginning of 2021, our debt outstanding was $189 million as of the end of the second quarter, which resulted in net debt of $138 million. Also important to note, we have interest rate caps in place with various durations through March 2024, which limit our exposure to rising interest rates. As I mentioned, our board of directors declared the dividend of 50 cents per share for the second quarter, in line with our value strategy framework. Walking down our dividend formula, this consisted of operating cash flow of $63 million, less debt repayments of 8.75 million, dry docking, ballast water treatment system, and energy-saving device costs of $22.6 million, and the previously announced reserve of $10.75 million. Importantly, included in our expenses for the quarter was one-time expenses of $9.3 million for ballast water treatment systems, as well as energy-saving devices, which we estimated to have a payback period of two to three years and believe continue to enhance shareholder returns over the long term. Going forward, we plan to continue communicating our TCE estimates for the fixed portion of our fleet's available days, estimates on the expense side, and the anticipated level of the reserve. On slide eight, we have provided an illustration of the expense estimates for the third quarter of 2022. In relation to dry dock expenses, we front-loaded our dry docking in Q2, which we expect will result in lower dry docking capex for Q3. Furthermore, we recorded higher vessel operating expenses for the second quarter as a result of completing our transition to our new technical management joint venture. During the first half of the year, we experienced higher crew expenses associated with repatriating Chinese crews from our former technical managers during strict zero COVID regulations in China, and higher repair and maintenance costs on certain vessels, as well as an increase in the purchase of stores and spares as we complete the integration of the vessels into the joint venture. Having completed the extensive changeover of our cruise to Indian and Filipino cruise and replenished our vessel stores and spares, we expect our operating expenses to normalize during the second half of the year. In total, the expense and reserve side of the equation for Q3 are estimated to be $54.9 million. Included in that figure is the expected reserve of $10.75 million, which is based on $8.75 million of voluntary debt repayments expected to be made in the third quarter, as well as estimated cash interest expense. I will now turn the call over to Peter Allen, our SVP of strategy, to discuss the industry fundamentals. Thank you, Apostolos.

During the second quarter of 2022, freight rates continued their sequential improvement from the seasonally softer first quarter. The Baltic Cape Size Index rose from approximately $11,000 per day towards the end of April to nearly $40,000 per day one month later. This highlights the upside potential in operating leverage inherent in owning Cape Size vessels, while Supermax rates mostly traded in a solid range of $25,000 to $30,000 per day during the quarter. As we progress through the third quarter and second half of the year, we anticipate an uplift in seaborne iron ore cargo availability. Specifically, production guidance from large Brazilian iron ore miner Valei suggests an uplift in volumes ranging from 26 to 33% higher in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year. We expect this rise in shipments to coincide with China's economic policies, which have been geared towards stimulating the economy, following a series of COVID-related lockdowns earlier in the year. Regarding energy markets, we continue to see tightness globally as more regions turn towards coal imports. We have seen a rerouting of cargo flows as Russia exports more coal to China and India, while Europe has sourced more coal from U.S., Colombia, and Australia, which has increased some amounts. On the grain side, a strong Brazilian corn crop has helped to offset a portion of the reduced Ukrainian export volumes, We expect Brazil to begin exporting corn to China by year-end, which represents a new long-haul trade route, which should be beneficial for minor bulk vessels. We believe grain shipments from Ukrainian ports may gradually improve in the coming weeks, following a deal with Russia to reopen Black Sea ports for shipments, but it remains a highly fluid situation. If we were to experience augmented grain exports, we would view the increased supply as positive, not only for freight rates, but the global economy as a whole, to help alleviate food supply shortages, particularly in their world countries. Regarding the supply side, net fleet growth in the year to date is approximately 1.5%. Going forward, the historically low order book has a percentage of the fleet at only 7%, combined with both near-term and longer-term environmental regulations are expected to keep net fleet growth low in the coming years. Overall, we believe these positive supply side dynamics provide a solid foundation for the dry bulk market and leads to a low threshold for demand growth to have to exceed in order for improved fleet-wide utilization and freight rates. This concludes our presentation. We would now be happy to take the questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. Our first question today comes from Liam Burke of BRIDI. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, John. Good morning, Apostolos. Good morning, Liam. John, in Peter's prepared comments, he was talking about the valet or the supply side of the iron ore expecting to up shipments. And then China, we're seeing fits and starts. How are you viewing the demand side of the iron ore equation for the second half of the year? Obviously, a derived question is cape size rates.

The COVID lockdowns went on longer than what we expected and I would say what most people expected. And there's no doubt that that has hurt on the steel production side and iron ore imports have been lower than anticipated. Having said that, as Peter mentioned, looking at, you know, even the low end of valleys revised guidance would still imply You know, more than 20% gain in the second half versus the first half in terms of volumes of iron ore being shipped from Brazil, from Vale. So, and I think if you look at years past, usually whatever is available to ship does get shipped. It's less dependent on outbreak demand. So, we may see prices of iron ore go down a little bit, but we still think those volumes are going to appear. Having said that, I do think it's going to be a little later this year than maybe what we've seen in years past. So, we could have a stronger fourth quarter versus in years past. Usually, you have a very strong Q3 and then a softer Q4. And then if you go to the back of the Chinese stimulus, again, that has sort of just started to click in, and usually that takes a quarter or two in terms of lag before you see the benefits of that.

Great. And on your budget, your daily vessel operating expenses, you had a lot of expenses in the quarter. Your budgeted number is significantly lower second to third quarter. Was there that much one-time expense in there, and are you going to move any variable costs down in that budget number?

Yeah, Liam, so the expenses in the second quarter were due to two things. The higher expenses in the second quarter were due to two things primarily. One, you know, higher crew costs associated with crew changes because of Chinese crews that we were repatriating. We're now done with that. So therefore, we expect significantly lower expenses on that side for the second half. And then secondly, you had higher R&M spares and stores expenses. for the vessels that were joining the new technical management JV. After having replenished the stores and spares on those vessels, we do expect significantly lower expenses for the second half. And we have provided an estimate of $4,950 per vessel per day for Q3. Yeah, so we still think we'll be able to hit our

annual budget, but the second quarter had a spike, particularly on stores and spares, as Apostolos mentioned. That's more of a timing issue than anything else.

Right. Thank you, John. Thank you, Apostolos.

Thanks, Liam. We will now take a question from Omar Nocta of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hey, guys. Maybe just touching on that last point about the OpEx, it sounds like you're feeling pretty confident in bringing down that number to that 4950 as you highlight. I guess that really does suggest that OpEx maybe quarter over quarter could decline. It's pretty sizable, $10 million. Does that sound fair? Yeah, that's right for quarter over quarter variance. That's right, Elmer. Okay, yeah, I mean, that's pretty significant. And I guess, you know, in terms of the dividends, obviously declared a pretty, you know, solid 50 cents for the second quarter. And just as we look at the table that you've given us and with the reserve and this lower FX, that suggests then that even with potentially softer rates here thus far into the third quarter, you could actually pay out a higher dividend when you report 3Q. Do you kind of, is that how you see it potentially?

Yeah, that's how we see it. So we've got almost 80% fixed, a little over $25,000 a day. I think even if you use the FFA curve for the remaining 20%, third quarter will definitely be a higher dividend than the second quarter.

yeah okay good and then maybe maybe john just sort of big picture because you guys have done a obviously terrific job going back to the beginning of 21 and really strengthening the balance sheet and as you've highlighted your your ltv is down to a very strong 12 which really gives you plenty of flexibility in all in all kinds of markets um what are you thinking about and i guess you did talk about this a little bit john in your commentary about net debt zero The $8.75 million that you're reserving each quarter in anticipation of the dividend, how should we think about you actually making those prepayments? You've been doing that. As we think about the third quarter, fourth quarter, at least with some visibility, do you think that you'll be continuing to pay down, say, that $8.75, that rather than it being a reserve, it's actually going to continue to be utilized to pay down the facility?

Yeah, look, our plan at this point, Omar, is to continue paying down that 8.75 per quarter. And we'll also, on top of that, build up the $11 million reserve per quarter. So that is the current plan. I don't see that changing at all, you know, for the second half of the year. And we will, you know, at year end, my guess is we'll evaluate where we want to be. And if there's any changes to that, we'll let the market know. But at this point, I don't anticipate anything. You know, we're still on track to get down to that. You know, if you take that quarterly debt repayment as well as that quarterly reserve, we're still on track to get to a net debt zero by the end of 2023. Yeah.

Okay. That's interesting, John. And just to make sure I have this correct, the $188.5 million that you have outstanding in debt today, there's nothing due on that until the 2026?

There is no mandatory amortization. Everything we're doing right now is voluntary prepayment.

Okay, very good. Thanks, John. I'll turn it over. Thanks, Omar.

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question today comes from Greg Lewis of BTIG. Please go ahead.

Hey, thank you, and good morning, everybody. You know, I feel a little bit like a heel asking this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. You know, John, I mean, you guys are doing all the right things, paying dividends, getting the balance sheet where it needs to be. You know, that being said, it doesn't seem like the stock is on a relative basis where it should be. And so as you think about that, realizing that we just started on the strategy and we've really only been able to execute it on for a couple quarters now, At a certain point, when could we start thinking about meaningful buybacks?

Yeah, so, Greg, I'm frustrated, probably just like you, in terms of where the equity is from a valuation standpoint. You know, NAV, you know, and you know I don't even like that metric, but the reality is NAV is, you know, probably somewhere around mid-20s. And certainly from an enterprise value EBITDA, we should be trading more in the mid fives, five to six than in the mid threes right now. And history would tell you that. Though, you know, the equity markets in general are obviously not cooperating for a lot of companies. So, and I also think that the dividend strategy, as you pointed out, this is really only the second full payout that we've done. And we wanna give it some more time to season. We truly believe that once we get three or four quarters under our belt, that that seasoning will start to take place. So that's the backdrop. You look at stock buybacks, and I can certainly see how they make sense on paper, but I would also tell you they just don't move the needle very much from an NAV standpoint unless you do a huge buyback. And in order for us to do something, that obviously we would lever up, and that's not desirable. That has not worked for quite a few companies in the past. who have levered up and then done, uh, share buybacks, um, and then had to, you know, go into the market and, and do more expensive sale leaseback transactions just to, just to lever. Um, so looking at the numbers, Greg, you know, it, it, it, they just don't work that well. You know, you're talking about one, 2% accretion on, on NAV. And we think the better strategy right now is to stick with the dividend payout. Um, and, uh, you know, with the, with the intention that that starts the season and that, and that we start to trade, um, at higher multiples in terms of cashflow.

Okay, great. Great. Thank you for that. Um, and then as, as we, as we look ahead to, uh, you know, it's interesting, there's been a lot of talk obviously for obvious reasons about, you know, Eastern European, the Eastern European grain trade. Um, you know, that being said, we're actually coming into the, the, the, you know, we're, we're kicking off the, uh, the North American grain trade. Is there any way to kind of qualitatively think about the disruptions in Europe and what that potentially can mean for the North American grain trade, i.e., you know, ton miles, inventories, any kind of just, you know, I know that I think Liam was asking about Supermax's Any kind of way to think about the North American grain trade and the setup for that over the next couple months?

Well, look, I wish it was as easy as A plus B equals C, but this is shipping, so you know that that's not necessarily the case. Having said that, the U.S. is going to have a strong season. It will extend ton miles, so that will be good. that we should start seeing the benefit of that, you know, in the late September going into October timeframe. I do think one of the things that is missing right now is the Black Sea season. You know, this typically would be when you would really see the Black Sea region pick up and be helpful to the midsize vessels. So that is missing a little bit right now. But as I said, we're optimistic coming into the latter part of the year. And you can see in our strategy that we put our money where our mouth is. We actually kept second quarter pretty spot. But at the same time, we were fixing forward for third quarter, which you can see in the forward fixtures. So as we get into the fourth quarter, I do think you're going to see a better market on the midsize ship.

Super helpful. Thank you, everybody. Have a great rest of the summer.

Okay. You too, Greg. Thank you.

We will now take a question from Paul Fred of Alliance Global Partners. Please go ahead.

Good morning, John. Good morning, Apostolos. I had two questions, the first of which is, can you talk about your chartering strategy you know, the mix between time charters and spot, it seems like over time that is going to decline. And is that something you're comfortable with? Or just sort of, could you give us an idea of what your optimal mix is between time charters and spot?

Well, I don't think it's a percentage mix. You know, we take advantage of opportunities. particularly in the Cape size sector that's obviously where the most volatility is so when we when we see rates get to a certain number we will then fix which we have done in the past and unfortunately we haven't you know we're still we're still bullish on the Cape size sector so it at where TC rates have been over the last couple months it just didn't make sense to the fix And particularly with our capeside sleet having 100% scrubbers, that's really been the right move for us. Having said that, as I've said almost every quarter, if we see something and the opportunity to take one to two years of exposure off the table on capes at a decent rate, we're going to do that. I think the minor books are a little different. We have a very robust trading platform there. We've been able to do very well and create alpha over and above the benchmarks with our forward cargo bookings and creating arbitrage opportunities. So that will continue. But just to reiterate, you'll see us, you know, continue to do cape-sized charters, you know, as the market improves again.

Great. And then if we can talk about the dry-docking, CapEx, you know, ballast water treatment. You know, on the second quarter, it came in a little light, and it looks like some activity was shifted into the third quarter, and third quarter went up. But also, even though days are declining, as far as idle days in the fourth quarter, it looks like it's going to jump again, you know, by about 4 million to 10 million. Can you help explain what's going on there as far as why second half dry dock CapEx is higher than what you put out in the second quarter? And then also give us a preliminary view on dry docking activity, fast water treatment CapEx into 2023?

Yeah, sure, Paul. So, as you rightfully pointed out, some of the expenses from Q2 slipped into Q3 and Q4. Having said that, we are coming off of $22.5 million of dry dock costs. CapEx-related expenses into $6.8 million of CapEx-related expenses for the third quarter, so significantly lower. You know, the reason for some of the day sleeping and higher costs was higher still replacement costs than what was originally expected. But again, you know, we expect a much lower expense for Q3 at $6.8 million and Q4 at $10.1 million. For 2023, we only have $2.4 million of expense. It's really just 70 days across two ships. So those numbers definitely tail off for the next year.

And, Puslis, is that a realistic expectation for 2023? I mean, is that something that is likely to stay in that range or potentially – Just give us an idea. So you're looking at significantly lower dry dock balance water treatment capex, which is part of the dividend formula in 2023.

Yeah, that's correct. And yes, it is realistic. It has to do with the timing of dry docking and special survey cycles. And obviously, some vessels were pushed into this year in order to get ahead of IMO 2023 regulations. So 2023 is realistic at $2.4 million.

Also, Poe, keep in mind this year we're spending almost $15 million on energy-saving devices to get ourselves in a position for IMO 2023 and improve the fuel efficiency on the fleet.

Great. Thanks for your time.

Thanks, Poe.

At this time, there are no more questions. This concludes the Janko Shipping and Trading Limited conference call. Thank you and have a nice day.