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11/8/2024
good morning and welcome everyone to granite ridge resources third quarter 2024 earnings conference call currently all participants are in a listen-only mode a question and answer session will follow the formal presentation if you would like to ask a question during that time simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad and if you would like to withdraw that question again press star one i will now Turn the call over to James Masters, Investor Relations Representative for Granite Ridge.
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Granite Ridge Resources. We will begin our call with comments from Luke Brandenburg, our President and Chief Executive Officer. We will provide an overview of key matters for the third quarter and an outlook for the remainder of 2024. We will then turn the call over to Tyler Parkerson, our Chief Financial Officer, who will review our financial results. Luke will then return to provide some closing comments before we open up the call for questions. Today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in these statements. We would ask that you also review the cautionary statement in our earnings release. Brenna Ridge disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. These and other risks are described in yesterday's press release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This conference call also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information reconciling non-GAAP financial measures discussed to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings release that is posted on our website. Finally, as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. The replay and transcript will be made available on our website following today's call. With that, I will now turn the call over to Luke.
Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today. I'm pleased to report that our third quarter results have exceeded our internal expectations across the board. This success is a testament to our team's creative deal sourcing and exceptional underwriting and to the operational excellence of our partners. I'm grateful for our team's efforts as we continue to demonstrate our capabilities in the public arena, just as we have done privately for over a decade. Tyler will provide that detailed overview of the quarter, but I'd like to highlight a few key points. Our controlled capital program, which gives us full control over development timing and targets project rates of return in the mid-20s or better, continues to thrive. Though still in its early stages, Production to date has exceeded targets by approximately 15%, and CapEx has come in about 15% under budget. We now have an inventory of over 40 net locations in the Permian that we plan to develop over the next two to three years. Given our early success, we plan to allocate even more resources to control capital. In 2024, this will account for nearly 50% of our CapEx. And based on current inventory, I anticipate that in 2025, approximately 60% of our CapEx will be dedicated to control capital. On the deal front, we successfully closed over a dozen transactions this quarter, adding nearly 16 net locations at a total cost of $31 million. These new locations are projected to require $125 million in future development capital. This aligns with our typical ratio, where $1 of entry drives roughly $3 to $4 in the ground. These additional locations are primarily within our control capital program and include inventory under our new Midland Basin-focused strategic partner, where we continue to grow our position and plan to pick up a rig later this year or early next year. Turning to production, I mentioned last quarter that we anticipated a 5 to 10 percent decline in gas production for the third quarter. I'm pleased to report that we were wrong, as we actually saw an increase in gas production. This outperformance was primarily driven by our first controlled capital pad in Loving County, Texas. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we do expect some flush gas production to taper off, potentially leading to a quarter-over-quarter gas production decline of up to 10%. However, this should be partially offset by a modest increase in oil production. When going through our quarterly results, it stood out to me that 16.2 net wells in process as of September 30th is higher than usual. To add a bit more color, 12 of those net wells are under just four operators in the Delaware basin. Of those 12, five are in our controlled capital program. We currently expect to put two to four net wells on production in the fourth quarter, followed by a significant increase in the first quarter. I'll wrap up with a look ahead to next year. As mentioned on our August call, we anticipate double-digit production growth in 2025 compared to 2024. While we are not providing formal guidance for 2025 at this time, We do expect year-over-year production growth to be in the mid-teens, with the oil weighting of 2025 production projected to be in the low 50% range. On that note, I'll hand it over to Tyler to provide more insights into our results.
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