Granite Real Estate Inc.

Good morning and welcome to the Granite REITs fourth quarter and year-end results for 2023 conference call. Speaking to you on this call this morning is Kevin Gorey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Theresa Netto, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Theresa Netto to go over certain advisories.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information including, but not limited to, expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast, or projection. These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in grants material filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time, including the risk factors section of its annual information form for 2023, filed on February 28, 2024. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. The REIT reviews its key assumptions regularly and may change its outlook on an ongoing basis if necessary, Granted, it undertakes no intention or obligation to update or revise its key assumptions, any forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, the remarks this morning may include financial terms and measures that do not have a standardized meaning under international financial reporting standards. Please refer to the condensed combined audited financial results and management discussion and analysis for the three for the year ended December 31st, 2023 for Granite Real Estate Investment Trust and Granite Re-Ink and other materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time for additional relevant information. Now I'll start with the financial highlights as usual and Kevin will follow with his operational update. Granted posted Q4 2023 results ahead of Q3 and in line with expectations supported by strong NOI growth, lower current tax expense, and positive impact from foreign exchange primarily as a result of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar partially offset by higher interest costs. FFO per unit in Q4 was 127, representing a 3 cent or 2.4% increase over Q3 and a 5.8% increase relative to the same quarter in the prior year. The growth in NOI is derived from developments and expansions that came online since the fourth quarter of 22, and strong same-property NOI growth enhanced by leasing spreads in excess of 100% in Canada, double digits in the U.S., and inflationary increases in Europe, partially offset by the disposition of two properties during the first and third quarters of 23, and some new vacancies in North America. NOI growth was enhanced by foreign exchange as the U.S. dollar was 1.6% stronger in comparison to Q3, while the Euro was flat. In comparison to the prior year, the Euro was 6% stronger and the US dollar was flat, resulting in a $0.02 positive impact to FFO per unit. In Q4 23, we recognized a net favorable $1.8 million reversal of tax reserves related to a prior year, which resulted in a current tax expense being $2 million lower as compared to Q3 and $1.4 million lower relative to the prior year. negatively impacting Q4-23 relative to Q3 and the prior year quarter is higher interest costs, net of interest income of 0.9 million and 0.7 million respectively, which is primarily related to the full quarter effect of interest costs on our 70 million euro term loan that closed in early September and higher interest rate on the 400 million 2029 debenture post the repayment of our 23 debenture on November 30th. Granite's AFFO per unit on a per unit basis in Q4 was $1.15, which is $0.06 higher relative to Q3 and $0.10 higher relative to the same quarter last year, with the variances mostly tied to FFO growth and lower capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances incurred due to the timing of leasing turnover and seasonality. AFFO-related capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances incurred in the quarter totaled $6 million, with a decrease of $0.7 million and $1.4 million over Q3 and the prior year, respectively. For 2023, total AFFO-related capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances incurred were $18.3 million, which is below prior estimates provided due to timing as certain leasing activity did not occur as forecasted. For 2024, we expect maintenance CapEx leasing costs and tenant allowances to come in at approximately 25 million, with the increase relative to the past couple of years being a direct result of anticipated leasing activity for the remaining 24 and 25 maturities, as well as the leasing up of existing vacancies. Same property NOI for Q4 23 was strong relative to the same quarter last year, increasing 4.7% on a constant currency basis, and up 6.8% when foreign currency effects are included. Same property NOI growth was driven primarily by higher than previous year's CPI adjustments, positive leasing spreads, contractual rent increases across all of Granite's regions, lease renewals in the U.S., Canada, and Netherlands, the lease up of a prior vacancy in Novi, Michigan, and includes the impact of completed expansion in Indiana and completed development in Fort Worth, Texas, and Altbach, Germany, which had free rent periods in the prior year, partially offset by vacancy of certain properties in the U.S. and Canada. G&A for the quarter was $9.4 million, which was $0.8 million higher than the same quarter last year, and $1 million higher than Q3. The main variance relative to the prior year quarter in Q3 is the change in non-cash compensation liabilities which generated an unfavorable $0.2 million fair value swing relative to the same quarter last year and an unfavorable $1.4 million fair value swing relative to Q3. These fair value adjustments do not impact FFO or AFFO metrics. Stripping out the fair value adjustments, as mentioned earlier, G&A expenses that impact FFO and AFFO were approximately $0.4 million lower than Q3, which is mostly related to timing of professional fees and travel expenses. For 2024, we continue to expect G&A expenses of approximately $9.5 million per quarter, or roughly 7% to 7.5% of revenues, excluding any amounts for fairly adjustments on non-cash compensation liabilities. On income tax, Q4 current income tax was $0.1 million, which is $1.4 million in the prior year, and $2 million lower than Q3. As mentioned earlier, in Q4-23, we recognized the reversal of tax provisions relating to positions taken on taxation years, which have gone statue-barred in our European region of $1.8 million, in contrast to similar favorable adjustments last year of just $0.7 million. For 2024, we are expecting current income taxes to increase slightly to approximately $2.4 million per quarter, and that's as a result of higher revenues and the burn-off of TIA amortization in Austria related to the branch lease renewal, which commences February 1, 24, increasing our taxable income in that region. Interest expense was higher in Q4 relative to Q3 by $4.1 million, while interest income also increased by $3.2 million as compared to Q3. As mentioned previously on the Q3 call, on October 12, Granda completed its $400 million green bond offering, known as the 2029 debentures, and concurrently entered into a cross-currency interest rate swap to exchange the Canadian dollar denominated principal and interest payments for euro denominated payments, resulting in an effective interest rate of approximately 4.93% for the five-and-a-half-year term of the 2029 debentures. The net proceeds from the offering were used to repay Granite's 2023 debentures with the same principal amount outstanding of $400 million upon its maturity on November 30th. For the period from October 12th to November 30th, Granite earned interest on its net proceeds from the 29 debentures at approximately 5.4%. Therefore, relative to Q3, net interest costs increased by $0.9 million. The increase is a result of the full corridor impact, as mentioned earlier, of the €70 million 2026 term loan, which has an effective rate of 4.33%, and the one-month impact of the repayment of the 23 debentures, which had an effective rate of 2.43%, in comparison to the higher effective rate on our 29 debentures of 4.93%. Granted weighted average cost of debt is approximately 2.59%, For 24, given that we have no debt maturing until very late December, our interest expense run rate is estimated to drop to approximately $21 million per quarter, which will be offset by some interest income of approximately $0.5 to $1 million per quarter. Now, looking out for 24 estimates, Granite is forecasting SFO per unit within the range of $530 to $545,000. representing approximately a 7% to 10% increase over 2023. For AFFO per unit, we are forecasting a range of $4.65 to $4.80, representing an increase of 3% to 7%. The high and low ranges are driven by foreign currency rates, where for the high end of the range, we are assuming foreign exchange rates of Canadian dollar to euro of 1.48 and Canadian dollar to USD of 1.38. On the low end of the range, we are assuming exchange rates on the Canadian dollar to Euro and Canadian dollar to USD of 1.43 and 1.32 respectively. We continue to estimate that one cent movement in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar impacts FFO and AFFO per unit approximately by two cents, and a one cent movement in the Canadian dollar relative to Euro results in a one cent annual impact to FFO and AFFO per unit. Granite will provide updates to guidance each quarter, as warranted, based on leasing activity and other operational events executed to date. The trust balance sheet comprising of total assets of $9.1 billion at the end of the quarter was negatively impacted by $33 million in fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio in the fourth quarter and was further reduced by $73 million of translation losses on Granite's foreign-based investment properties primarily due to the 2.5% decrease in the spot USD exchange rate, partially offset by a 1.9% increase in the spot euro exchange rate relative to Q3. The fair value losses on granite's investment property portfolio were attributable to the expansion in the discounted terminal capitalization rates across selective granite markets, largely due to market conditions, partially offset by fair market rent increases primarily in selective U.S. and European markets. The trust's overall weighted average cap rate of 5.24% on in-place NOI increased 10 basis points from the end of Q3 and has increased 37 basis points since the same quarter last year. Our net leverage at the end of the year was 33%, and net debt to EBITDA was 7.3 times, which is flat relative to Q3. and lower than Q4 2022 as a result of same-property NOI growth as previously mentioned and the completion and stabilization of the majority of Grant's development properties. Grant continues to expect its net debt to EBITDA to improve in 2024 as the EBITDA from completed developments come online throughout the year. Our current liquidity is approximately $1.1 billion, representing cash on hand of approximately $120 million and the undrawn line of $997 million. As of today, we have no borrowings outstanding under the credit facility, and there are $2.9 million in letters of credit outstanding. And lastly, on other financing activities, for the three months in the fourth quarter, Granite repurchased approximately 393,000 stapled units under its NCIB at an average price of $68.73 for a total proceeds of $27 million. And I'll turn it over the call to Kevin.

Thanks, Theresa. Certainly an in-line quarter as NOI continued to increase despite a slight decline in occupancy from the previous quarter. Further, as mentioned, FFO for 2023 was in line with guidance of 490 to 505, which was provided in March of last year. And I think it is worth noting at the outset that we generated double-digit growth in FFO per unit for the second consecutive year. I'll begin with a brief update on our current development pipeline. As stated in the MD&A, the 19-year lease on our 409,000 square foot build suit project for Barrie Callebaut commenced on schedule in mid-January, which I think is quite an accomplishment by the team for such a complex development project. Additionally, we have executed a new 10-year, 30,000 square foot lease on our 50,000 square foot expansion in Ajax, which commences in June of this year. And finally, for development, we have received approvals and executed a lease amending agreement with the tenant for a 52,000 square foot expansion on our property in Wert, the Netherlands. The expansion is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter at a cost of approximately 6 million Canadian and generate a return of roughly 8.5% on cost. As a reminder, all projects are expected to achieve certification in accordance with our published green bond framework. In addition to the projects just discussed, we have roughly 160 acres of land remaining for development in Brantford, Houston, and Columbus, which could accommodate up to 2.4 million square feet of space once constructed. As outlined in our press release in MD&A, the team achieved an average increase in rental rate of 24% on renewals for roughly 3.8 million square feet of leases that expired in the quarter. With respect to our 2024 maturities, we have now renewed 7.8 million, or roughly 79%, of our 9.8 million square feet of maturities, and an average increase in rental rate of 15%, with the increase, ironically, muted somewhat by the 10% increase associated with the garage renewal. As Theresa mentioned, same property NOI increased by 4.7% in the quarter on a constant currency basis, lower than in Q3, but in line with expectations. Same property NOI was positive across all our geographies on a constant currency basis, led by the Netherlands and Canada at 9.8% and 7.7% respectively. And despite higher vacancy, our U.S. portfolio posted same property NOI of just under 4%. Overall, same property NOI growth for the quarter, for the year, sorry, came in at the lower end of our initial guidance of 6% to 7%. As you can see, we project same-property NOI growth within the range of 7% to 8% on a constant currency basis for 2024, and we expect that growth to continue to be strong through 2025 based on today's expected leasing spreads over that period. As you can see from our disclosure, we adjusted cap rates and discount rates nominally in the quarter based on relevant transactional data. Excluding FX movement, we have now recognized roughly $175 million in fair value losses on our investment properties in 2023 and just under $900 million in total since Q1 of 2022 as a result of adjustments to capitalization and discount rates, mitigated partially by increases of market rents and development stabilizations within our portfolio. Based on recent transactional data and a move lower in overnight rates across our jurisdictions from the fourth quarter, At this time, we do not anticipate significant further declines in asset values moving forward. However, we also believe that the prospect for distressed sales is likely to rise for the coming quarters, as many owners and developers struggle to cope with debt loads and are unable to recapitalize their investments. And while that increase in activity may provide, granted, with compelling investment opportunities, we recognize that a significant number of such sales could concurrently place downward pressure on pricing in the short term. As a general market update, leasing activity continued to slow in the fourth quarter as higher interest rates and economic uncertainty continued to impact tenant activity broadly across the sector. On a comparative basis, our markets once again represented eight of the top nine markets in the US for net absorption, totaling 22 million square feet for the quarter, and over 135 million square feet for the year, led by Dallas, Chicago, and Houston. As for rates, our market saw relatively positive year-over-year growth, from 1% in Columbus to 16% in Dallas, 19% in Indianapolis and Louisville, 26% in Houston, and over 40% in the I-78-81 corridor. The GTA, Netherlands, and Germany posted growth rates of 6.3%, 6% and 12% respectively over 2022. As for Q1, we are definitely seeing an increase in traffic and leasing activity across our markets versus levels that we saw in the fourth quarter. I cannot discuss specific deals on the call, but the team is currently negotiating leases or in advanced discussions on approximately 1.5 million square feet of renewals and new leases, which I think bodes well for leasing momentum into the second quarter. At this point, we expect to renew between 85% to 90% of our lease expiries overall in 2024, a very strong number in my opinion. As mentioned in the press release, we have renewed our base shelf prospectus, which expired in November of last year on effectively the same terms as before. As I telegraphed on our Q3 call, this renewal is simply a formality and is being executed in normal course to facilitate Any potential actions we may contemplate over the next 25 months. Also, as Teresa mentioned, we opportunistically utilize available cash on hand to purchase roughly 400,000 units at an average price of $68.73. As you know, unit buybacks are not our first choice for capital allocation, but we will not hesitate to capitalize when the unit price is that far below now. In closing, our results were in line with expectations. NOI and cash NOI increased each quarter in 2023, and our liquidity position remained very strong at roughly $1.1 billion in cash and available credit. As I have stated on previous calls, we utilized the power of our balance sheet and consciously made a sizable investment in development beginning in 2021 with a goal to deliver, when combined with attractive same-property NOI growth and retained earnings, strong cash flow growth for multiple years. Since the beginning of 2022, we have generated FFO growth of over 26%, and per our guidance, we expect to deliver further FFO growth of 7% to 10% in 2024, depending on applicable change rates. All of this while continually improving the quality of our portfolio. So, addressing our current availabilities and remaining 2024 maturities and preserving capital for future strategic opportunities remains our highest priorities. And we are very well positioned to deliver NOI, FFO, and AFFO growth once again in 2024. On that, I will now open up the floor to questions.

Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press the 1-4 on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3. One moment, please, for the first question. Our first question comes from Himanshu Gupta with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Thank you and good morning. So just from the leasing activity in the quarter, looks like pretty active there. So around 2 million square feet of leasing done in the U.S. Maybe can you elaborate on that, like which markets? and what the rents in line with your expectations.

I don't want to get into specifics, but are you referring to the $1.5 million I just mentioned?

No, Kevin. I'm talking about the one which you achieved in Q4. You know, $1.9 million split fee leasing done in the U.S. in Q4. So anything on that you can remember, Tim.

I wouldn't get into specifics on that, but I would certainly make the comment that the leasing spreads, the rental rates that we achieved were very much in line with expectations or above expectations.

Okay, fair enough. And then if I look at, you know, there was a vacancy in Q4, I think around 400,000 square feet. Maybe can you provide some color there like which market and I mean what is the assumption of lease upon that property?

There were two. I think there was one in Memphis close to 300,000 square feet and one in Houston, which was I think roughly 150,000 feet.

OK, OK, fair enough. And then maybe you know the next question is, if I look at your U.S. occupancy, it's like 92%. And, you know, if I look at the U.S. market, you know, general market vacancy in your key market, you know, Indianapolis, Columbus, Memphis, Dallas, you know, market vacancy is also around 8%. So you're pretty much in line there. So do you think, you know, overall market occupancy needs to get better before you show occupancy gains on your U.S. occupancy?

No, I don't. And a couple of things I would point out is, number one, we're dealing with very modern products and very well located within our respective markets. So I do think it will outperform the market. We have to date anyways on that. And the second one I would point out is Indy's a great example. I think the overall vacancy in Indianapolis is in the eighths. But when you break it down, we're in the southwest, as you know, right by the airport. All points is literally across the street from Ronald Reagan International Airport. Vacancy rate in the southwest sub-market is 4.3%. Most of the vacancy in Indianapolis is in the east and the southeast. So if you're going east to Greenfield, the vacancy rate is close to 20%. If you're in the southeast, you're talking about Shelbyville, I think you're 17% to 18%. So they're there's clear differentiation depending on where you are within the market. Louisville, for example, we're in Bullock County right off the highway. So that's a very well-located asset. So I don't think it would be fair or reasonable to compare us to the overall vacancy in the markets. We certainly expect to outperform the markets. So I don't think we need to see a sort of general major reduction in vacancy within our markets for us to have success leasing this year.

That's a good point. Clearly, we have to look at the sub-market level. And maybe the last question is on your FFO guidance, which obviously looks pretty strong here. Teresa, what are you expecting in terms of lease-up of the current vacancies? Is it mostly Q2 or in Q3?

Mostly, it would be in the latter half of the year, if that helps.

Okay. No, I think that's it. I'll turn it back. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Pami Burr with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Thanks. Good morning. Just maybe drilling down a little bit further on the lease up of some of the U.S. assets. What's your sense of the timing for getting veterans drives and some of the Nashville sites leased up over the course of the year?

I would say in terms of activity in our markets, Nashville and Houston have been very active. Indianapolis would be second. I think that there's strong prospects out there, but probably pretty early days for us, I would say. And then Memphis and Louisville would be behind that. So what we're assuming is that all of the current availabilities will be dealt with this year, or the vast majority of them will be dealt with this year and in the second half of the year.

Okay. And then coming back to the 7% to 8% same property in Hawaii growth, how do you see that sort of breaking down regionally? And just, I guess, just given your comments on getting most of, I guess, the U.S. vacancy done before year end or in the second half, does it skew, you know, does that 7% to 8% skew more towards the U.S.? Or I'm just curious if you can give us some thoughts on the regional outlook.

I think it would be skewed more towards the U.S. But one thing that's interesting is it's not impacted significantly by developments. So it would be lease-up of existing space and also the sort of renewal increases we're expecting to achieve or have achieved on the rollover in the U.S. So the U.S. definitely contributes a significant amount to that 7% to 8%.

Okay, and just to clarify, are the Indianapolis acquisitions that you completed previously, Are you including those in your 7% to 8%?

We would, but we were always clear about how much is attributable to new developments. So they would become same property NOI at some point this year, later on this year, but we would be clear. We would be clear about overall same property NOI and same property NOI excluding development.

Right, and I think that speaks to your quarterly average same property NOI that you

Absolutely. And just to say, though, for 2024, we are not expecting development, the new developments, the stabilization of new developments, to contribute significantly to that 7% to 8%. It's a very small amount. Okay.

Lastly, just for me, Kevin, you mentioned you expect to see some distressed opportunities surface. It sounds like the acquisitions aren't really factored into your guidance outlook. So I'm just curious if you can expand on that, what you're seeing out there, any specific markets that would be of interest for assets.

Well, I don't want to talk about markets, but we are monitoring the markets very closely, and there are a few that we're pretty laser-focused on right now. There are a couple in North America, including the GTA, obviously, and in Europe. But just looking at some deals, we have seen transactions involving deals that were done a year ago, less than a year ago. And so we are seeing signs of financial distress among owners. We are seeing it now. Pricing seems to be holding up, but I do anticipate that that financial distress, not so much a contagion, but certainly I think there will be a number of examples like that over the coming six to 12 months.

And would you be prepared to push leverage a bit if stuff does come up that is pretty compelling?

If it's compelling, I don't know how much we'd be willing to push leverage. I mean, we have a completely unused billion-dollar line of credit. But if we had – and Teresa's sitting across from me nodding her head at me. But we would have to have confidence and comfort that interest rates are moving in the right direction as well. So it has to be a combination of both those things, I think. It has to be a compelling opportunity for us in the right markets. And we have to have comfort on the direction and trajectory of interest rates. Got it.

Thanks very much. I will turn it back.

Our next question comes from Mike Markides with DMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, grant team. Just good to hear about the increased traffic you're seeing on the leasing. And I think I heard you correctly. You said that you expect that most of the or substantially all the existing availabilities are addressed by the end of this year. So just doing some quick math and if I use your expected retention ratio. Should we be thinking about maybe occupants in the U.S. going from where it's today, 92, to maybe ending the year at 97-ish? Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

I think that would be a bit high if you were to say most of the current availabilities would be dealt with this year, but also we would have $1.3 million roughly expected to come back to us this year just through lease expiries. So we're guiding overall, I should know it offhand what it would be in the U.S., but we're guiding overall to 96.5% to 97.5% occupancy.

Okay. That's great. That's all I have. Thanks so much.

Our next question comes from Brad Sturges with Raymond James. Please proceed. Hey, good morning.

Just maybe a general comment on the leasing in terms of the commentary around the pickup. Are you seeing incremental activity or interest in bigger boxes at this point?

I would say yes and no. Depending on the market, it does feel like most of the activity we are seeing is in that sort of 250 to five range. We have seen a couple of prospects in the six to 800,000 range, but I think it's a fair point. So far this year, there's been more activity in the sort of mid-bay $250,000 to $500,000 range.

At this point, when you're looking at your vacancies, is still the preference to be focused on single-tenant users, or has there been a change in thinking in terms of maybe going to a multi-tenant in certain circumstances?

I don't think I've ever used the word single tenant. It's not our focus. Our focus is modern distribution logistics and e-commerce. Whether it's multi-tenant or single tenant, it's not. Now, depending on saying that, there are some buildings that are better suited to single tenant use, and most distribution logistics is better suited for single tenant use. So that's really our focus is on that. If the question is, are we willing to look at demising the buildings, absolutely. If it's the best thing for the building and the best thing for our returns, certainly we would do that. And just to emphasize, all of the buildings we build, all the buildings we develop, are designed to be demised if necessary. And all of the ones, including Indianapolis, both of those buildings in Indianapolis, we would assume they would be demised and let to multiple tenants. So that was by design. So we're not single-tenant focused. It's really what is the best use of a modern distribution facility. That's what we're focused on.

Yeah, okay, that makes sense. I meant more on the demising aspect rather than the type of user in a general sense, but I appreciate that.

Particularly if we can achieve higher rental rates and higher NERs, we wouldn't hesitate to utilize our capital to do that, to achieve that.

Yeah, okay. Last question. How are you thinking about Brantford in terms of phase two at this point? You're getting close to completing phase one. Would there be an opportunity to start phase two on SPAC or would you wait for pre-leasing or change in the market conditions given a little bit of a slowdown or normalization more specifically in recent months? Just curious to get your thoughts on what timing and thought process on Phase 2 could look like.

There are no plans to move ahead with speculative construction at any of our sites. I think we moved all the land into property-centered development, partly because we'll make sure that the land is serviced and ready to go so that we can respond to any build-to-suit opportunities in the short term. But there are no plans for any speculative development at this time on any of our any of our sites.

Okay. Makes sense.

Thanks a lot.

I'll turn it back.

Our next question comes from Mark Rothschild with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed.

Thanks, and good morning. Maybe in regards to the guidance that you guys gave for same property in Hawaii, it seems like you're optimistic about having a decent amount of occupancy improvement this year, how much of that, and maybe talk, I just couldn't get it clear, how much of that is built in to the guidance for same property and a wide growth in 2024?

I'm probably going to give you an exact number, but obviously there is, in the forecast provided, is an assumption on the lease-up of some of the vacant space, the newly developed, and as Kevin has mentioned, and that's very much back half skewed So it is in there for sure. But remember that same property NOI, it's a four-quarter average, right? So it's taking the averages of the four-quarter that we anticipate. So some of the recent developments from last year don't affect all quarters. They will affect more the second half of the year.

Okay, I understand. And I guess that would lead into, Kevin, the comment you made about, I don't know exactly what you said, about 2025 as well, considering there's more leasing to do then. and some of the octopuses you'll pick up through the year, the growth should continue strong in 2025 as well.

Yeah, I think that's what a lot of people will miss, is as you're sort of driving NOI and releasing activity through the year, at least into the next year. For us, what's particularly sort of encouraging for 2025 is, remember, we have roughly a million and a half feet rolling in the GTA. And right now, where we stand, I mentioned releasing spreads. For 2025, I think there's 5.3 million feet rolling. We're anticipating leasing spreads overall of approximately 40%. So we do expect same-property NOI to continue to be very strong. I won't use the word accelerate at this point. We don't know, but we expect it to stay strong through 2025 and into 2026.

And out of that 1.5 million square feet in Toronto, is that more earlier in 2025, later in the year, spread throughout the year?

I think it's throughout the year. Unfortunately, the big one's in the second half of the year. I think it's at the end of September.

Okay, so I'll wait to talk about 26. That's fine. On the development, you said you're not looking for speculative development. Is that impacted at all by maybe what was slower pace of leasing at some of the more recent development projects, or is that just generally the way you feel with the way the environment is now?

Well, yes, it is impacted by it. I mean, I think we're only comfortable taking on so much speculative development at a time, and I think right now we want to deal with the availability set in front of us before we move ahead on a speculative basis. Now, saying that, I think we also want to monitor the fundamentals in the markets for the next little while. So even if we were successful in leasing out the available development project. I'm not sure we would move ahead speculatively in Brantford or Houston at this time. It would have to be, I think it would have to be a careful decision on our part when to move ahead on a speculative basis.

Okay, great. Thanks so much. That's helpful.

Our next question comes from Sam Damiani with TD Securities. Please proceed.

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Maybe, Kevin, in your comment included in the outlook statement last night, talking about moderating market rent growth, is that meant to indicate a change from what you were seeing last quarter? And I guess, what are your expectations for market rents in the upcoming year?

I think we thought for 2023, it would be in the low double digits. And overall, in our markets, it was. I mean, I referred to some of the market rent growth that we saw in Dallas and Chicago and others. I mean, it was rather tremendous. The GTA came in in the lower. One of our lowest rent growth markets was the GTA at just over 6%. As we look forward to overall market rent growth for our market, I would say probably low to mid single digits at this point. We did see some backup in rates in Q4, but it's only one quarter and it depends on the deals that were done that can be impacted by large deals. But also to point out, when you look overall year over year, the two major markets in the U.S. that saw negative growth was Los Angeles and New Jersey. So I think we saw relative strength among our markets in the U.S., if that's really what you're focusing on. And at this point, just looking at overall market rank growth, I think low to mid single-digit growth for 2024 would probably make sense to us.

That's helpful. And I guess with the increased traction on leasing activity to address the vacant spaces in the US, is that partly a result of, I guess, the bid-ask spread, if you will, between landlord and tenant coming together in favor of the tenant? Like, how should we think about, I guess, what's the reason for the reinvigorated leasing traction?

I just think 2023 was very difficult for tenants from a financial perspective. And then, of course, it felt like they spent most of 2023 trying to right-size their balance sheets, trying to right-size their business. And now as they're facing 2024, there's a question of how much space that they need. And as we've discussed here internally, I think the geopolitical tensions, the issues that we're seeing sort of around the world, and the impact on supply chains, is getting back to tenants need to have resiliency in their supply chain. And I think we're just, it seems, and we're guessing here, but it seems that there is greater confidence on behalf of tenants to now make that decision on where they're going to expand and how they're going to build more resiliency into their supply chain. So that's just the way it feels, what we're seeing at this point. I think it's early days for the year, but certainly Q1 is a lot better than Q4 was. That's very helpful.

And just on the comment you made about some potential distress situations arising, I just didn't pick it up. Did you say that was mostly in the U.S. or that would include the GTA and in Europe as well?

No, I can't say we've seen too much of that in the GTA. This would be more the U.S. and Europe. So on both sides of the Atlantic, we've seen pockets of it.

Okay. And last question for me, Theresa, if you were to do fixed-rate debt in the market today, is there capacity to swap into euros? And either way, what would that effective rate be if you were to raise new debt today?

We don't have a lot of room for incremental euro swap debt, so we'd have to replace a financing. If you look at it today, we can definitely borrow lower than where we were in October. So around the low four percentage, like 4.25%. Roughly, if you're looking at kind of like a five to seven year term on a debenture, that's kind of where we would be today.

That's great. Thank you. And I'll turn it back.

Our next question comes from Kyle Stanley with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Thanks. Morning, everyone. So I think, Kevin, you gave some good color to one of Sam's questions there just on the demand profile. I mean, I think the common expectation right now is that maybe we're either at or nearing peak deliveries in the U.S. and trending towards peak vacancy. I guess the expectation seems to be things improve in the second half of the year under the current demand dynamics. Is there anything you're seeing to suggest either, you know, a positive or potentially negative change in demand that would either, you know, expedite the improvement or maybe see the current software environment persist for a bit longer today?

First of all, I think in terms of, you're right, I think there's this sort of consensus that the market will rebound strongly in the second half of 2024. I think we're a little more conservative. I think we think the market will be much stronger in 2025 than it will be in the second half of 2024. So I think there will be a sort of slower recovery to this. But to your point, new starts have completely dried up in most of our markets. So there's still some supply to work through, to be sure, at least through the first half of this year. But that will stop. And in terms of, like, take Louisville, for example. We're one of only two buildings in that size range in that market, and one is a brand-new build. And so we should be able to compete strongly against that building in terms of rental rate. And so I think we don't need a very strong recovery overall in the market, I think, to perform this year. But for us, the other thing I would say in terms of tenant demand is it seems like we are seeing a return of the e-commerce users to the market. We have seen Amazon return to a number of our markets looking for space. And so if there was a catalyst for you know, above expectation growth, it would be sort of the return of e-commerce users to the market.

Okay. No, that's very helpful. Just next on your, you know, assumption of kind of high 80% or 90% renewals for 2024, what's driving maybe that elevated level of renewal activity in your view?

I just think it's good buildings. I think it's good assets. I think they're well-located. You know, when we underwrite assets, tenant covenant and the quality of the tenants is important to us. And I think that plays into, I think that plays as a factor as well in this. But I would just speak to just the quality of the location, the quality of the assets more than anything else.

Okay.

And I would say that I've listened to calls on some of the larger U.S. REITs and they're all in the 70s. Some of them are in the low 70s in terms of retention rates. So the V in the mid-80s is very strong, and I think it's a feather in our cap regarding the quality of the portfolio.

Agreed, and exactly why I asked the question, so I know that makes sense. Just the last one for me. On your AFFO guidance, what kind of leasing costs have you baked in as part of that guidance for the year?

So of the 25, about 10 is for maintenance capex, and the rest are for leasing and TA, so about $15 million.

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. I will turn it back.

Our next question comes from Sumaya Syed with CIBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Thanks. Good morning. Kevin, earlier you mentioned that for the U.S. lease that presumes all current availability will be dealt with by H-2. So should we take it that that's based on current active discussions, i.e. you would have really decent visibility to those leases being firmed up?

Yeah, I don't want to get into specific deals, certainly, or specific markets, but we're probably, I would say, in advanced discussions, in roughly half a million feet of space on the current availabilities. And other than that, you know, there are prospects in the markets that we expect to, at some point, be dealing with, but it would be early days.

Okay. And then, can you just talk a little bit about your contractual rent bumps and what you're including in your... the newer leases you're assigning?

I think just generally in North America, both the GTA, and I've got the team here if I'm wrong, the GTA in the U.S., we've been 3.5% and above. That's been what we've been achieving in the U.S. and the GTA.

Okay, so that's still holding steady.

Okay, that's all I have.

Okay, thank you.

Our next question comes from Matt Cornack with National Bank Financial. Please proceed.

Hi, guys. Just a quick broader one and then some technical stuff. But just with regards to your comments around opportunities potentially given your balance sheet, if you were looking at the market today – and opportunities were to arise, would you deploy capital into the same geographies, look to diversify, or how should we think about capital allocation if you do take advantage of your balance sheet strength?

I don't want to mention specific markets, but I think that there are one or two new markets, or I would say non-markets we haven't telegraphed before, but markets we're not currently in. Certainly that would be a consideration for us. But again, there have to be a few conditions that have to be met for us to do that. And I would say, we talked about this with our board yesterday. It doesn't feel like we've seen any deals that have been that compelling or deals that we've missed. Certainly, we've been surprised by some pricing, some massive pricing on deals, but nothing that's been that compelling. So not to say that there's anything that's imminent. Matt, to be honest with you, we've been sort of waiting for distress. in the system, in the markets, and we've been, I don't know, somewhat disappointed, I guess, that we haven't seen it. We're not quite sure why not. But if we're right and we do see those deals, we do have two or three markets that we're quite focused on right now if opportunities arise.

And even to the extent that there is distress, is your view that there's still capital on the sidelines looking to get into industrial longer term and that It may not necessarily be pricing adjusts.

Yes, yes. I mean, obviously the levered buyers are sort of kind of on the sidelines, and I think a number of the private equity players have been quietly selling assets. So is it distress? Was it planned all along? I'm not really sure. So there are fewer of the levered buyers around for sure, but it looks like people have stepped into, you know, whether it's pension funds, or lower leverage of private equity have stepped in to fill the void, for sure. There seems to be no shortage of buyers.

And then for Teresa, just on the amortization of tenant incentives, I think most of that relates to the 2014 renewal in Grasse. So should we assume that amortization goes to zero or something much lower than the current?

That is right. So we'll just have like one month, right? Because the gratuity will reveal in February and then you can assume zero for the rest of the year.

Okay. And then similarly on straight line rent, you did convert some straight line to cash rent. It looked like this quarter. But is there more to go? I know there were some free rent periods that were wearing off.

Yeah, they were wearing off exactly. So that's why we're about a million lower this quarter. So I think you can expect Q1 to be a little bit similar to Q4. And it should be more or less similar. But then as we lease up some of these developments or the vacant developments, then you'll get a bump up, assuming we have some straight line rent in those lease deals.

Okay, so there may be some free rent in the new leasing, so you'll probably see an FFO, not necessarily an ASFO for this year, and then you'd get the ASFO conversion into 25. And then lastly, SP&OI, including expansions, do you have a sense as to whether expansions were a contributor in Q4 and then maybe a sense of how much they'd contribute in 2024 as well.

The expansion was very little. I think it makes a difference of 0.1%. Yeah, so it's not very much.

Okay, that's it. Thanks, guys.

There are no further questions at this time.

All right, operator. Well, on behalf of Granite's management team, thank you for being a part of the Q4 call and look forward to speaking with you again in May.

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.