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spk03: Good morning. My name is Todd and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Granite REIT second quarter 2024 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two. Thank you. Speaking to you on the call this morning is Kevin Gorey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Teresa Netto, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Teresa Netto to go over certain advisory.
spk00: Good morning, everyone. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast, or projection. These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements or information. These risks and uncertainties and material factors and assumptions applied in making forward-looking statements or information are discussed in grants and materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time, including the Risk Factors section of its Annual Information Form for 2023 and Grants Management's Discussion and Analysis for the year-end of December 31, 2023, filed on February 28, 2024. As usual, I'll commence the call and then turn it over to Kevin for his operational update. Granite posted Q2 2024 results ahead of Q1 and in line with management's annual forecast and guidance, largely driven by strong NOI growth, partially offset by slightly higher interest costs. FFO per unit in Q2 was $1.32, representing a $0.02 or 1.5% increase from Q1 2024, and an 11 cent or 9.1% increase relative to the same quarter in the prior year. The growth in NOI this quarter is primarily derived from strong same property NOI growth, enhanced by the double-digit leasing spreads in Canada and the U.S., the expiration of the free rent period of the recently completed development property in Brantford, and lease closeout fees earned on a disposed property in Canada, partially offset by a new vacancy in the U.S. NOI growth was further enhanced by foreign exchange as the US dollar and Euro were 1.4% and 0.6% stronger, respectively, in comparison to Q1. AFFO per unit in Q2 was $1.17, which is 5 cents lower relative to Q1 and 8 cents higher relative to the same quarter last year, with the variances mostly tied to FFO growth, partially offset by higher capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances, incurred due to timing of leasing turnover and seasonality. AFFO-related capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances incurred in the quarter totaled $7.1 million, which is an increase of $5.7 million over Q1 and $2.6 million over the same quarter last year. For 2024, we continue to expect maintenance capex, leasing costs, and tenant allowances to come in at approximately $28 million for the year, unchanged from our estimates last quarter. Same property NOI for Q2-24 was strong relative to the same for last year, increasing 6% on a constant currency basis and up 7.3% when foreign currency effects are included. For 2024, we are updating our forecast for constant currency same property NOI based on a four-quarter average to be in the range of 6% to 6.5%, a reduction from the previous forecast of 7% to 8% as a result of new vacancy commencing June 1st and some revised leasing assumptions on certain vacant properties. Kevin will provide some further color on the forecast of the same property on OI later. G&A for the quarter was $7.7 million, which was $1.2 million lower than the same quarter last year and $2 million lower than Q1. The main variance relative to Q1 is the $2.5 million favorable fair value variance in non-cash compensation liabilities partially offset by $0.9 million of corporate restructuring costs relating to the uncoupling of Granite's stapled unit structure, both of which do not impact Granite's FFO or AFFO metrics. G&A expenses that impact FFO and AFFO were approximately $0.2 million lower than Q1, which is mostly related to an approximate $0.7 million capital tax refund resulting from changes in tax regulation in the state of Tennessee and related to prior tax years. partially offset by costs pertaining to Granite's annual general meeting and other timing differences and expenses. For 2024, we do continue to expect G&A expenses that impact FFO and AFFO of approximately $10 million per quarter or roughly 7% of revenues. Interest expense was higher in Q2 relative to Q1 by $0.6 million, while interest income also decreased by $0.2 million as compared to Q1. The increase in interest expense was primarily due to the reduction in capitalized interest as a result of the completion of the majority of development projects, together with the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates on foreign-denominated debt. The decrease in interest income was a result of lower uninvested cash balances on hand due to utilizing excess cash to repurchase units under Granite's NCIB program, together with a slight reduction in interest rates in Canada and Europe due to interest rate cuts. Although interest income earned is lower from lower cash balances, the impact to both SFO and ASFO per unit is more than offset from repurchased units under the NCIB. Granite's weighted average cost of debt is currently 2.6%. For 2024, given that there is no debt maturing until late December, Granite's interest expense run rate is expected to remain at current levels of approximately $21.7 million per quarter which will be offset by some interest income of approximately $1 million per quarter. For income tax, Q2 current income tax was $2.6 million, which is $0.5 million higher than the prior year and $0.1 million higher as compared to Q1. The movement in current tax relative to Q2 last year is mostly attributable to increased taxable income in Europe due to the rental growth together with the strengthening of the euro relative to the Canadian dollar. as all of our current income taxes generated from the European region. The increase in current tax relative to Q1 is mostly related to the strengthening of the Euro relative to the Canadian dollar. For 2024, we are expecting current income taxes to remain at current levels of approximately 2.6 million per quarter. As in prior years, Granite may realize a credit to current income taxes of approximately 1.8 million in Q4 due to the reversal of prior year tax provisions However, we cannot confirm the certainty of such credit until December 31st, and therefore, our guidance does not factor in any tax provision reversals. Looking out to the 2024 estimates for AFFO per unit, our guidance has been adjusted slightly from last quarter to narrow the range to 530 to 540, representing an increase of 7% to 9% versus 2023. Similarly, for AFFO per unit, we are narrowing our forecast range to 460 to 470, representing an increase of 2% to 4% versus 2023. The 5 cent reduction at the top end of the range is reflective of a slight reduction in NOI due mostly to one new vacancy in the U.S. and some revised leasing assumptions on certain vacant properties, offset by reductions in G&A expenses, most of which have been realized to date. Granite has not made any changes to FX rate assumptions pertaining to the forecast period that will be July to December of 2024. The high end of the range continues to reflect FX rates of the Canadian dollar to Euro of 1.48 and Canadian dollar to USD of 1.38. The low end of the range continues to reflect FX rates of the Canadian dollar to Euro of 1.43 and Canadian dollar to USD of 1.32. As usual, we will continue to provide updates on our guidance each quarter as warranted. Granite's balance sheet, comprising of total assets of $9.3 billion at the end of the quarter, was positively impacted by $60 million of translation gains on Granite's foreign-based investment properties, primarily due to the 1.2% and 0.3% increases in the spot USD and euro exchange rates. relative to Q1, partially offset by approximately $0.8 million in fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio in the second quarter. The Trust's overall weighted average cap rate of 5.3% on in-place NOI increased seven basis points from the end of Q1 and has increased 25 basis points since the same quarter last year. Our net leverage at the end of the quarter was 32%, and net debt to EBITDA dropped 7.1 times, which is lower relative to Q1 and lower than Q2 2023, as a result of the NOI growth, including the completion of stabilization of a good majority of the grant's development properties. Our current liquidity remains at $1.1 million, representing cash on hand of about $100 million, and the undrawn operating line of $997 million. As of today, we have no borrowings under the credit facility, and there are $2.8 million in letters of credit outstanding. And lastly, during the second quarter, Granite did repurchase 644,300 stapled units under its NCIB at an average price of $68.62 for a total consideration of $44.2 million, excluding commissions and taxes on the net repurchases of stapled units. Now I'll turn over the call to Kevin.
spk04: Thanks, Teresa. I'll begin with a few introductory comments on our results, and then I'd like to turn it over to Lauren and Michael to provide an update on our development and leasing activity and provide some perspectives on the investment markets in our jurisdictions. I will then finish with our outlook for the remainder of the year before opening up the floor to any questions. As Teresa mentioned, our results for the quarter were in line with expectations. Despite the unplanned vacancy related to one of our tenants, And NOI grew by 2.3 million, or 2%, over the first quarter and represented the 12th consecutive quarter of NOI growth. As Teresa also mentioned, we lowered the upper end of our FFO for unit range, as it's common to tighten the range approaching the latter half of the year. And we also lowered our guidance for St. Croix BNY to 6% to 6.5% due primarily to the impact of the tenant insolvency. and a period of free rent on a large renewal subsequent to quarter end, as Lorne will discuss somewhat in his comments. With that said, same property NOI growth on a constant currency basis was strong in the quarter at 6%, led by gains in Canada and the US at 12.5% and 5.1% respectively. As outlined in a press release in MD&A, the team achieved an average increase in rent rate of 25% on our Q2 2024 maturity, led by strong renewal spreads in the US and the GTA. As Teresa discussed, and it feels like deja vu all over again, we opportunistically utilize cash on hand to purchase roughly 644,000 units at an average price of 68.62. As I have stated, previously, unit buybacks are not our first choice for capital allocation, but we will not hesitate to capitalize when the unit price is that far below now. It's also worth noting that despite allocating over $44 million on those unit buybacks in a quarter, in addition to funding ongoing development in CapEx programs, we managed to finish the quarter with over $100 million in cash and cash equivalents, which I think speaks to the power of preserving conservative capital ratios and generating free cash flow to drive accretion per unit cash flow. In conjunction with our quarterly results, we are also pleased to announce the release of our annual ESG report for 2023, which I think summarizes well our activities and achievements against a number of our key targets and objectives. There are frankly too many highlights to discuss here, but I invite you all to review the report, which is now available on our website. At this point, I would like to turn a call over to Lorne for an update on our development leasing programs, followed by Michael's comments on the investment market.
spk15: Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I will begin my comments with a short update on our remaining development projects. As mentioned in our past quarter, the lease on our 409,000 square foot building in Brantford, Ontario, has commenced. We are completing the finishing touches to the base building and the exterior landscaping commenced last week. The ongoing 50,000 square foot expansion in Ajax, Ontario, is expected to be substantially completed in Q3 2024, with our pre-lease tenant of approximately 30,000 square feet taking possession in the same quarter. Lastly, our 52,000 square foot expansion in Weird remains on schedule for a Q3 2024 delivery. As a reminder, we also have approximately 160 acres of land capable of delivering 2.4 million square feet of space once constructed. While we continue to move some of these developments forward from a permitting perspective, to ensure we are as ready as possible to entertain build-to-suit opportunities, we are not contemplating any speculative construction at this time. On the leasing front, leasing markets in general started off the first half of 2024 with some relatively positive momentum. In the latter half of 2023, we saw users starting to survey the market with limited deals progressing past that stage. After back-to-back historical net absorption years in 2021 and 2022, Markets entered 2023 with fears of a recession, lender caution, increased construction costs, and softer supply and demand fundamentals. It was not surprising that tenants decided to pause on long-term capital commitments and assess their current and future corporate needs. The impacts of the economic uncertainty were felt mostly in the first half of 2023. By the start of 2024, it starts to feel like tenants were back in the market and prepared to make some leasing decisions again, creating a more optimistic outlook for 2024. So far, we are encouraged with the year-to-date U.S. and Europe leasing statistics, but less so with the GTA figures. The hyper-leasing pace we saw in 2021 and 2022 has not returned, but we think the market is moving to a normalized state. That being said, tenants continue to take their time to evaluate their real estate decisions, much like they did prior to the pandemic. As you would expect, we are seeing a general flight to quality assets and locations, and encouraged to see that big box activity is starting to gain traction again. A pickup in decision making at the C-suite level, coupled with a significant construction slowdown, should lead to a stronger demand market. The three PL companies continue to have the most dominant share of tenant demand, followed by the general retailers and the F&B industries. Notably, e-commerce segment has been showing strength again recently with stronger absorption numbers. With the US representing over 50% of our portfolio and where most of our short-term leasing initiatives are occurring, we are further encouraged with the generally improving leasing statistics. While the US net absorption numbers increase in Q2 from Q1, again, it's important to understand the numbers are still down from recent highs. As a reminder, Granite's markets accounted for seven of the ten highest net absorption locations for the first half of 2024, which represented approximately 72% of the overall net absorption across the entire country. Asking rents within the Granite portfolio remain relatively stable and reiterate a strong mark-to-market opportunity on both the IPP and development pro forma leases. Vacancy rates have generally been increasing over the past several quarters, but seem to be moderating due to the significant slowing of new construction completions coupled with improved leasing activity. If these dynamics continue, we believe we may be approaching peak vacancy rates in most markets. During Q2 of 2024, granted achieved average rental rates fed, as previously mentioned, about 25% over expiring rents, representing approximately 890,000 square feet of new and renewal leasing completed in the quarter, led by renewals in the US and GTA. With respect to the 2024 lease maturities, we have renewed or extended approximately 89% of the 9.8 million square feet expiring and an approximate 16% increase in rental revenue. Again, an increase which is muted by the grads renewal. We continue to believe that we will achieve over a 90% retention rate on the overall 2024 expiries, which we believe is a strong outcome. With respect to the 2025 maturities, while it is still early days, we have renewed or extended approximately 23% of the 5.5 million square feet and continue to believe that we will achieve greater than 30% renewal spreads on these expiries. As it relates to our occupancy, we dipped slightly by 50 basis points from 95% in Q1 due to an unforeseen tenant bankruptcy in the U.S. and then no vacancy here in the GTA. Subsequent to quarter end, we completed a blend and extend with a tenant in Indianapolis, whereby we coterminously extended the lease on 400,000 square feet expiring in 2024 and an additional 197,000 square feet expiring in 2025 to the end of September, 2029 now. This simplified the lease structure and resulted in an immediate overall increase in rent of approximately 18%. Currently, we are in advanced discussions on approximately 400,000 square feet of new leasing and 800,000 square feet of renewals. With that said, our leasing teams continue to work very hard and are encouraged by the level of engagement and activity we're experiencing and believe it will lead to stronger occupancy for the upcoming quarters. And with that, I'll hand it over to Mike.
spk02: Thank you, Lauren, and good morning, everyone. Investment markets continue to show relative strength and stability in Q2 based on transaction data, particularly for new and higher quality offerings, in part due to availability relative to vast amounts of opportunistic capital in the market allocated for industrial deployment. Resulting year-to-date investment volumes, generally speaking, are flat to trail in North America and up in continental Europe when compared to those numbers from the same period in 2023, but however, are significantly off-peak numbers seen in 2021 and 2022. Investors continue to favor high-quality asset deals in prime locations with inherent rental growth opportunities as evidenced by deep bidding pools and ultimately sharp pricing. We are seeing this broadly across our global markets, regardless of any local supply-demand differentials. The buyer profile continues to be largely dominated by private capital, such as closed-end institutional funds, private equity, sovereigns, and high-net-worth privates. As there are significant dry powder and liquidity strengthening, we are starting to see appetite for larger-sized deals and well-located, high-quality core offerings. That being said, we do and have been expecting to see select opportunities to acquire miscapitalized projects where developers, for example, need an exit for low-rate leveraged assets that require refinancing. With Canada and the ECB already cutting interest rates and the U.S. Fed projected to start imminently, this forward economic environment should be generally embraced by the real estate sector and viewed as a stimulating and positive period. Deal pricing, investment volumes, and quality publicly traded real estate companies should benefit from meaningfully lower rates. Deal liquidity continues to improve as spreads tighten and treasuries continue to recede. At this time, both the Canadian and the U.S. 10-year bonds have come in at least 50 basis points in the last 90 days, compressing coupon rates for core loans. Also, there are seemingly more active lenders bidding for deals, and while the landscape is still dominated by life codes and debt funds, banks are selectively re-emerging for quality deals and sponsors alike. With our balance sheet, liquidity and leverage metrics always top of mind, and as mentioned last quarter, our team continues to underwrite and pursue selective opportunities that feature quality, growth and value as key focal points. We continue to be disciplined and patient in our deployment, ensuring our next acquisition is meaningful, on strategy, drives accretion, and we are optimistic this is not far in the future. With that, I'll hand it back over to Kevin.
spk04: Thanks, Mike, and thank you, Lauren, for your comments. So overall, our results, again, were in line with expectations. NY and cash NY increased once again this quarter, and our liquidity position remained very strong at over $1.1 billion in cash and available credit at this time. The tenant insult we see was unfortunate news for us and will negatively impact our St. Croix NY growth for at least two quarters. But the fact that the in-place rent is well below market, combined with the quality of the asset and location, should positively impact NOI growth for us in 2025. Similarly, the free rent on the large renewal in the quarter that Lauren spoke about will further mute NOI growth in Q3, but will help drive strong NOI growth in Q4 and subsequent quarters. I do want to say that, granted, we've never lost sight of what's important, and we're frankly comfortable living with the high expectations that are placed on us by others because we hold ourselves to a very high standard, which is to generate actual returns over the long term for our unit holders while maintaining a very strong balance sheet. To that end, we have delivered NOI growth of just over 45% in the past three years since the second quarter of 2021, representing an average increase of over 13% annually. Similarly, we have generated growth in FFO per unit of just over 33% over that same period, or 10% per year on average, including 9% year over year this quarter. And equally as important, we remain very well positioned to continue to deliver on our growth targets for 2024 and 2025. And on that, I will open up the line for questions.
spk03: Thank you. The floor is now open for your questions. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Again, that's star one to ask a question. Our first question will come from Sam Demiani with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
spk11: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And, you know, the extensive commentary was very much appreciated. So thank you. Thank you very much for that. You know, with the quarter and sort of changing near-term outlook, changing guidance, how are you feeling about 2025 today versus 90 days ago?
spk04: I don't think that there's any difference. I think, like I said, I think the insolvency we had is a bit of a hiccup. It's a minor setback. But if you're talking about a rent, I don't want to say the specific market. We're talking about a rent that's below $4 a square foot in a market that's north of $5 a square foot. So I think from that aspect, I think there's huge potential to drive growth in NY in the future. So it has no impact on our view of 2025 at this time.
spk11: Okay. And then I think last quarter, you know, in the guidance commentary or maybe in the Q&A, I can't remember, there was some occupancy target set for the year end. I didn't see that, and I apologize if I missed it in the disclosures. Do you have an updated view as to where committed and in-place occupancy will likely be at the end of 2024?
spk04: Yes, Sam, on that, we don't disclose it in the MD&A or the press release. I think it came up on the call last quarter, and I think we said, including committed, we expect to be between 96% and 97%. That has not changed. I think just based on Lauren's comments about deals that are active right now and the activity that we're seeing, we're still confident we will finish the year, including committed between 96 and 97%. Okay, great.
spk11: And then last one for me, I guess, you know, Mike, given your comments on the investment market seems to be kind of, kind of, you know, recovering a bit here. There's more, more, you know, liquidity coming in, interest rates are a tailwind, hopefully going forward. Does Granite look at any opportunities to, to recycle capital in this, in this environment, just given, I guess everything on the table, including a unit price that's still low enough.
spk02: Yeah, Sam, we're always looking at opportunities to recycle capital. But again, it's got to be the right opportunity, the right transaction for us.
spk14: We're not forced to sell anything at the moment, and we have to make sure that we get the right transaction.
spk11: Okay, great. Thank you. And I'll turn it back.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Brad Sturgis with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hey, good morning. Just following up on Sam's line of questions and appreciate some of the commentary you've already given to the 25 lease maturities. Would you, at this stage, I know it's probably in some cases a little early to talk about all the expiries, but would you be expecting generally a similar retention rate or renewal rate for 25 as what you're expecting for 24?
spk04: I'll let Lauren chime in on that. But just to say, I mean, I think, like Lauren said, anything over 90% is rather exceptional. And I think it is early days, although we seem to be encouraged by the sort of level discussions we're having already on those. Would you say 80 to 90? Is he comfortable with?
spk15: Yeah, I I still think it's early days Brad, but you know, I think as Kevin said, we're encouraged by what we had so far. I I really don't want to put an exact percentage on it right now. I think maybe in the next quarter to have a little bit better clarity, but I do think it will be a a very strong outcome based on what we've experienced today.
spk05: You know, I guess the releasing that you've already done, the 23% of those 25 maturities, how do those releasing spreads compare to your overall expectations of maybe over 30% for the lease rollover exposure next year?
spk04: Kevin, I just want to chime in on that, Brad. I think it is consistent, but keep in mind, even if it wasn't, sort of forecast of 30 to 35 percent for the year takes it into account so i'm not even sure what the number really is but i don't know how consequential that is to the to the guidance because it would be built in so i think it's consistent but all to say 30 to 35 percent for the year is the guidance for next year okay and and no
spk05: no change to the committed occupancy range that you're expecting by year. And I guess I'm curious to dig in a little bit to the Midwest in terms of the availability you have there in terms of leasing velocity or just general market conditions. Are you seeing any incremental change from the last quarter in Indianapolis and maybe in Louisville?
spk04: Thank you.
spk15: I think we're encouraged in that there still is activity that we're seeing at both locations. I'd say probably Louisville, I'd say is a little bit more encouraging at this time. But we are seeing activity at both locations. I'd say in Indy, probably a little bit more activity on the smaller building than the larger building. but there is activity at both locations.
spk04: Yeah, which is funny because I think last quarter we felt activity on the large one. Right now it seems to be on the smaller one. And it can fluctuate from quarter to quarter, but that's a fair point.
spk05: And just remind me, is there other availability on the larger box side, or is there limited availability on some of the larger boxes within those two markets right now?
spk15: I think in Indy, again, one of the things you've got to think about is, yes, there is more availability in big box. We are in a sub-market that has a much tighter vacancy than the overall vacancy in Indy. In Louisville, we are one of one, over 600,000 feet, so we're well-positioned, and there really is very little supply there, so it's a pretty tight market. I think we're well positioned in Louisville for a large user.
spk04: And I think just to add to that, Brad, those are very good points that Lawrence brought up. And just on Indy, the location we're in, which you know, I would compare it to Mississauga across the street from the airport. It's never going to be a lowest cost option in that market, nor do we want it to be. So I think it has to be the right deal for us. And big differences. and not just in Indy, but in any market, there are big differences between some markets, availability rates between some markets, and certainly that's what we're seeing in Indy between our market and markets to the southeast, for example.
spk05: I can appreciate that, and I appreciate the comments. I'll turn it back.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Kyle Stanley with Desjardins. Please go ahead. Thanks.
spk12: Good morning, everyone. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned, you know, seeing maybe a bit more renewed demand for big box space. I know, obviously, what we're just talking about on Indy, maybe seeing that shift a little bit, maybe towards a smaller space. But just generally, can you talk about maybe what's driving some renewed demand in that big box space right now?
spk15: Um, I think, you know, I mean, there's, there's lots of different drivers in it. I think that one of the things that's just happening is, is that it was probably a takedown of a lot of space over the pandemic. And I think that's rationalized now, uh, e-commerce is still growing. And so there is a renewed interest in those types of larger spaces. Um, and as well, I just think that, you know, when I look at, you know, one quarter we could be telling you which mark we see the most activity and then they're flip-flopping all over the place but right now louisville seems to be also uh taking advantage of the airport right nearby and there's uh some renewed interest there as well so i just think it's probably you know i think some of the companies the c-suite people as i mentioned in my early remarks i think people are realizing that it's time to move on and they need to start to make commitments based on their business plans. And so that's what we're at least experiencing at this time.
spk04: Yeah, definitely. I would say, too, on top of that, we are seeing consolidation, a fair amount of consolidation. So it is sort of Peter, Robin, Paul, smaller sort of spaces consolidating into larger spaces. I don't think that's a big part of it. I think it's more what Lauren's talking about. But certainly we've seen a couple of deals involving prospects that are consolidating into larger spaces, which is normal.
spk12: Okay, okay, that's very helpful color. Maybe just my last question. I mean, I think you guys have mentioned it a few times in recent calls, and it was mentioned a bit earlier today. You know, what is it that you're seeing in the kind of leasing environment in the GTA that does make that be the market that maybe you're less, you know, less constructive on currently versus some of your other markets?
spk04: I'll start with it. I think if you look at the absorption, I mean, we understand as much as anybody the supply-demand dynamics in a market. But when you look at Toronto, you have negative, I think, 6 million feet over the past five quarters. I mean, this has been successive quarters of negative, zero to negative absorption. So what that tells me is that occupied space itself is going down. and demand is going down. When you look at some markets that have high supply, I always use Dallas, has a lot of supply and makes the market more competitive to be sure, but it's still generating 7 million square feet a quarter or more in net absorption. So that's telling us that businesses and our customers are continuing to move and invest in those markets. But when you see Toronto where there's been no growth, Montreal, I think it's had five or six quarters of negative absorption. Now there's a question about where that demand is going to come from and where that level of investment is going to come from. So that's sort of our view of Toronto in the context of our portfolio.
spk12: Okay, I think that's very helpful. Maybe just adding to that, In your opinion, maybe what is the driver of the demand retrenchment that we've seen? Obviously, we've seen a bit of a pickup in supply in some nodes, but generally it seems like what's going on in Canada is a little more on the demand side as opposed to the U.S. The issue has been more on the supply side. So just curious if you have a high-level thought there.
spk04: I think everyone looks at the U.S. I think in terms of the U.S., which has a much more active market, the things that I would say is we are still continuing to see investment in in electrification, if I can call it that. That is attracting manufacturing, which of course we don't build manufacturing sites, but they can use our buildings. It's rather generic that way. But also there's a lot of near-shoring from Asia to Mexico, and that is positively impacting a number of our markets, I think. That's one thing that we're seeing clearly. It's positively impacting Houston. It's positively impacting Dallas right through the Midwest. And is that a dynamic that continues? I don't know. But that certainly is a sort of tailwind in terms of absorption and demand for our markets that we're seeing.
spk12: Okay. Thank you very much for the caller. I will turn it back.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Mike Markitis with BMO. Please go ahead.
spk13: Thanks, Operator. Good morning, everybody. I just wanted to just focus in again on the committed occupancy target of 96-97. So I guess you guys were 94-5 committed at the end of the quarter. And I think Lauren had spoke to 400,000 square feet of discussions of new leasing currently underway. Were there any other new leases that have been signed subsequent to the quarter that I might have missed?
spk04: Is there anything that's been signed?
spk06: Are you talking about new leases, Mike, so not renewals, just new leases?
spk04: Yes. I'm not sure we had anything subsequent to the quarter.
spk06: Not subsequent, not subsequent. During the quarter, during the quarter.
spk13: No, I was asking subsequent to the quarter.
spk00: Oh, sorry. I thought you meant in the quarter. Apology. Nothing subsequent.
spk06: No.
spk13: Okay. All right. So, okay. So, 400,000 square feet. And then from just then looking towards your 2025 maturities, I guess you said 30% to 35% was the anticipated spread. overall, if I'm not mistaken. I think you got a pretty significant or a bigger contribution or weighting to Canada or the GTA in 2025. So how would we break that out between sort of the GTA and your expectations for the U.S., just given the change in the amount coming through in the GTA?
spk04: I can't remember where exactly we had the list of the GTA. I think we talked about it on the last call, Mike, and I don't think anything's changed in terms of the splits and what we expect from each one of the geographies.
spk13: Okay. And then last one for me, just on the U.S., and again, I think we talked about this last call, but you were precious. I think the cadence of the U.S. expires, you know, rolling in 2025 are somewhat back-end loaded. Is that the case? Is it concentrated to a few specific ones at the end of the year, or is it pretty consistent?
spk04: I think it's more consistent. I think it is second half and loaded, not the first half, and that includes actually the GTA as well. I think the majority of our leasing is in the second half of 2025, not the first.
spk13: In the US? Overall. Overall. Okay. Okay. Okay. That's it for me. Thanks so much.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Matt Cornack with National Bank Financial.
spk10: Hi, guys. You seem to have pretty high confidence in the rate for Canada. Are you relatively confident that the tenants, I guess, 1.4 million square feet will renew in that space in Toronto?
spk04: Yeah, I think we're relatively confident. Yeah, no promises at this point, obviously, but I think discussions indicate to us that we should be relatively confident that they would run in.
spk10: So presumably their business and everything is going fine. I don't know if you can provide who it is actually that's maturing in 2025 in Canada. We can't, sorry. Okay, all good. And then I guess, broadly speaking, and taking a bit of a step back, obviously, the Canadian consumer has been under more pressure than the US consumer. But this recent route in the markets, there was some talk about maybe the US is seeing a bit of pressure. Do you think that will translate into some demand side issues going forward? Or how should we think about that from a fundamental standpoint? Presumably, lower rates help everybody. But in Canada, I think lower rates are probably going to have maybe a bit more economic clout, hopefully.
spk04: Yeah, I mean, I think that that's fair. And I mean, to be clear, we don't we don't believe a recession is good for anyone. It seems to trade more with interest rates and not with GDP and consumer behavior, which we always pay attention to. The one thing I would say is to get back to one of Lauren's points. It does feel like we have been in a bit of a goods recession for a while. And I think really the shoe to drop here is more on the service side than on the good side. So from that aspect, I don't think we should be as discouraged about GDP or recessionary pressures as some other sectors of the economy. But that being said, to Lauren's point, what it feels like, and we had a very long conversation with a leading broker in Europe, And I think there's a similar dynamic. Because of the economic pressures and the uncertainty, CFOs and executive teams have been loathe to make financial commitments. And that's understandable. But what we're seeing on the ground is they have the real estate need. It is there. They're just delaying the decision. And our conversations objectively with people in Europe are exactly the same. Those needs have come to the forefront. and the delays can no longer be tolerated. So companies are, I don't want to use the word reluctantly or begrudgingly, but they're making the decisions they've had to make. They've delayed it long enough and now they have to make that decision. And so recessionary pressures for sure could have an impact on that moving forward. But in real time, what we're seeing is that these tenants are in need of the space and We expect over the coming quarters that activity will be better than it is today and certainly better than it has been the past few quarters.
spk10: Sorry, I missed that. We've had the benefit of touring some of the assets that you guys own. And there were clearly certain tenants that have invested significantly into their space. Through this, I mean, you've had some occupancy grind, obviously, some of it was new development. But for the tenants that are leaving, would you characterize them as tenants that haven't invested a space? And maybe can you give us a sense as to the breakdown between those very stable tenants that have invested significantly versus maybe more generic space in the portfolio?
spk04: It just feels more like we're more in a sort of normal state. To Lauren's point, probably a bit lower than that, but it seems to be getting, hopefully by the end of this year, we're getting back to that level. But remember, a lot of these spaces in general, the needs of the tenants and the retailers and wholesalers in general can change. They may want to consolidate in one market for whatever reason. It depends on whether manufacturing or customer base is as well. So I think these are just normal decisions that are made, but I mean, over 90% renewal rate is crazy. It's crazy. And I think it's going to be positive next year as well. And I think that speaks to, you know, as I've said before, the relative quality of the portfolio and the stability of our tenant. Makes sense.
spk07: Thanks for that, Colin.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Gaurav Mathur with Green Street. Please go ahead.
spk08: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Now, just staying on the line of questioning for a moment, would it be fair to say that the occupancy pressures that are felt in the GTA and the US market are comparatively higher than what would be felt in Europe at this point in time?
spk04: I think that that would be fair. I think in general, I mean, Europe, for a number of reasons, barriers to entry, et cetera, is generally lower than what we're seeing. I mean, the availability rate in the GTA is just over 5%. That's where it was in 2012, to be honest with you. So in Europe, it feels like it would be in the sort of, depending on the individual market you're in, somewhere between 3% to 5%. So it would be lower, certainly lower than what we're seeing in the US. And that's That's a long historical norm for us in our sector.
spk08: And given that there are quite a few macro concerns in Europe itself, you're not seeing that availability rate rise just yet?
spk04: No, it has gone up. And I think leasing has slowed down. Again, this is sort of a demand thing and not a supply thing. It has slowed down. Rental rates have continued to rise across most of our markets, and we haven't seen a big uptick in availability. Okay.
spk08: And this last question, I'm going to switch gears here to the acquisitions market, but any opportunities that we could potentially see being executed on in the second half of the year? And how should we think about balancing that with the NCIB activity?
spk04: I don't think anything's changed in a row. Look, as Mike pointed out, we have pursued select acquisitions, nothing that's too large. And frankly, I think, and Mike can add to this, I don't think we've seen anything that's that compelling to us, to be honest. But we would not hesitate, I think, to move forward with a transaction. I'm not saying anything that would be know so transformational but if it was the right deal we would move forward and we would figure out how to capitalize without compromising the balance sheet so in terms of the ncib again this is why we love to have the liquidity that we have that we can take advantage of those situations it doesn't feel good but we can take advantage of what we do so no comment really on any future plans for the ncib there's nothing set in stone But I think it would be my personal preference and our preference to do an acquisition or to do a design build, for example, on one of our sites and add value that way. But in the absence of that, if we have cash on hand, then the NCIB at the right price remains an option for us, obviously.
spk08: Perfect. Well, thank you for the call, Kevin.
spk03: I'll turn it back to the operator. Thank you. Our next question will come from Himanshu Gupta with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thank you and good morning. So there was a new vacancy, I think, starting from 1st June. Which market was that? I mean, it looks like there was a tenant insolvency.
spk04: I'll say it was in Ohio. It was one of our assets in Ohio. We don't want to provide much more comment than that. We're certainly now marketing the space.
spk01: Okay. And any other tenant on the watch list, Kevin?
spk04: Nothing material. Mind you, we always keep a close eye on mostly our smaller tenants, and I mean quite small tenants, under 50,000 feet. So nothing material at this time. There's surprises in that. Through the process, we were under the impression that Peter Haslund, Even though there was going to be a restructuring they're going to continue to use that space. Peter Haslund, And only found out in May that that they would not be continuing their their occupancy in the space and do that at the end of May. Peter Haslund, So the bit of surprise for us, but again we're very comfortable that we will be able to earn a very decent mark to mark on that rent when it's released and we're very comfortable with the location and the quality of that asset.
spk01: Okay. And then just moving on the leasing side, how's the progress on Memphis vacancies? I mean, is that the one where you are in advanced discussions on that $400,000?
spk04: Yeah, we can't. We're not trying to be evasive. We don't want to provide any specific locations in any of these discussions. We're in active discussions, and we don't want to do anything that compromises that. So All I would say is in terms of Memphis, we see decent activity, and we continue to see decent activity in that market.
spk01: Okay, fair enough. Yeah, fair enough. Maybe in a broader question, what is tougher here, you know, like leasing up the new development in Indianapolis or like the older assets in Memphis or Louisville, for example?
spk04: That's a great question. That's a great question, and I think, as Lauren pointed out, it changes from quarter to quarter. And it still remains a sort of mystery and interesting to me how real estate decisions can be made so quickly in such large spaces in our sector, but that's what we continue to see. So if I said to you, right now there seems to be more activity on even second-generation space in Memphis versus first-generation space in Indy, That certainly won't be the case in the next quarter. But this is one of the reasons why we embark on such an ambitious development program the way that we did, is these newer generation spaces are going to be very competitive, and we're going to be okay. And so if you ask me, what would I rather own today, I'd rather own new generation in Indy than I would second generation in Memphis.
spk01: Yeah, no, thanks. And how would you answer in the context of the asking rents? I mean, would you say the asking rents are much higher on the new development compared to the older ones? And probably that's why, you know, it's taking a bit more longer to lease up those assets?
spk04: I think that that would be fair. And I think one of the good things for us is that, you know, the way land costs and construction costs have appreciated so much over, I don't think there's a lot of wiggle room for owners of real estate, particularly newer real estate, to move down in rents rates and asking rates. And that's what we're seeing. We're seeing asking rates for the most part, lots of markets holding up very well. Some even went up over the first quarter. So I think there's going to be a lot of continued pressure to keep rents and face rates where they are, at least for the next number of quarters.
spk01: Okay, thanks for that. And then just turning on the guidance, FFO guidance, Teresa, you know, USD and Euro has moved a bit, you know, compared to Canadian dollars. And just to clarify that you do not consider that in your midpoint. So, you know, there could be an upside to your midpoint just from an FX point of view.
spk00: That is true. That is true. So we baked in, you know, more favorable FX generally in Q2. than we were originally forecasting, but you're right that there could be upside just given where the Euro and USD are trading today. That's fair.
spk01: Okay. Thank you. And then, you know, lastly, just talking about the balance sheet, it looks like leverage will come down further, you know, once these lease-ups are done. So can you qualify for a credit rating upgrade down the line? I mean, I know it's already high, but is that a possibility here?
spk00: I'd say that's a very low possibility. I think certainly with DBRS, we would have to sustain, I think, debt to EBITDAs in the five times range, and that's just not going to happen. And certainly with Moody's, just even given our size, we would have to be, again, quite low, probably closer to the low five, high four times. on debt to EBITDA on a sustained basis in order to get an upgrade. So no, it's not in the cards in the future.
spk01: Okay, fair enough. Last question. And I know I'm between, you know, you and lunch. So on asset valuation, I mean, cost of debt financing has improved a bit in the last, you know, three, four months, call it. So Kevin, is the capital expansion cycle almost over? Or, you know, it's over and Do you see, you know, capital moving down from here?
spk04: I'm looking at Michael as I'm kind of saying this, but I think I was asked this question on the last call, just the movement of a bond rate and some of the deals that we're seeing in the market suggests that there's more money coming into the market and not less transactions are picking up. We're now seeing a return of large portfolios transactions taking place. We've seen a couple of high profile ones in the US. So it feels like cap rates have stabilized and are continuing to strengthen. And I do want to point this out too, I think it was mentioned, maybe Theresa did, in terms of the cap rate versus a year ago. Remember that also depends very much on asking rents where rents are and where NOI is. So if you were to look last year, and we've discussed this, if you were to look at an average cap rate last year, and say, okay, it's moved 10, 15 basis points to this year. It doesn't seem like that much. Keep in mind that also what impacts that is where rates have gone, rental rates have gone since that period of time. So you could have a larger movement in cap rates, but it's moderated by the growth in market rent and the growth in NOI. So I just want to make that clear because I've seen that in certain analyses where that doesn't take into account how rents have moved from year to year. It certainly feels like there's been a stabilization like anything out on the cap rates. Yeah, that's fair.
spk14: I think we have. We are seeing sort of the peak of the expansion on the cap rates, as Machin mentioned, and where the curve goes from here all depends. Yeah.
spk01: Yeah. Fair enough. Great color, and thank you, guys, and I'll turn it back.
spk04: No more questions from Machin. That's a lot.
spk01: We can enjoy lunch here.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question will come from Tommy Burr with RBC Capital Markets.
spk09: Wow, sorry. I look like I might be able to squeeze one in here. Kevin, I wanted to come back to your comments on the capital deployment. You mentioned you wouldn't hesitate if the right opportunities surface, but I'm curious, where would you want to raise your exposure, either from an acquisition standpoint or if you were prepared to kickstart a development?
spk04: I wouldn't want to name a specific market, Pommy, but I would point out I think we have discussed in the past certain markets. The GTA continues to be a really important market for us. Now, we have not seen anything at a pricing level that's really compelling for us, but this is a market we will continue and always continue to focus on. There are select markets in Europe and the U.S. that we like and have mentioned as target markets in the past. that we're paying attention to if the right deal comes along. But they would be new markets for us. We have discussed them in the past, but they would not be necessarily in existing markets that we're in today.
spk09: I hope that helps. Yep. No, that's helpful. Okay, last one. I just wanted to clarify that 96% to 97% committed occupancy that you mentioned you expect to get to by year end, Does that assume the releasing of that bankruptcy in Ohio? And as we think about next year, any larger known vacancies coming back to you?
spk04: No, it's not predicated on a lease-up of the Ohio asset. I'm sorry, what was the second part of the question?
spk09: Yeah, any known vacancies that might be coming back to you next year. Known vacancies?
spk04: No, not at this time.
spk03: Great, okay, I'll turn it back. Thank you, and we do have a follow-up question from Sam Damiani with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
spk11: Thank you very much. I just wanted to maybe tie together some commentary that we've heard over the last hour. We've got pretty good renewal spreads next year. We've got a pretty, sounds like a pretty short watch list of tenants that might give back space. You're talking about high retention without putting a number to it potentially next year. Is there any reason we shouldn't expect same property NOI growth to notably accelerate in 2025 versus 2024?
spk04: I think the way I would put that, Sam, is I think I was asked this question last year. I'll just repeat my answer to it, and I don't think anything has changed. At this point, I think last year, 2023, I said that I expected same property NOI to accelerate through 2025. So 2024 should be higher than 23 and 2025 should be higher than 24. I don't think anything has changed in our expectations on that basis.
spk11: That's perfect. Thank you very much.
spk03: Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will turn the call back to Kevin Gorey for any additional or closing remarks.
spk04: All right. Thank you, moderator. Just on behalf of the management team and trustees here at Granite, thanks again for being part of our Q2 call, and we look forward to touching base with you again in November for our Q3 call. Thank you.
spk03: This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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