Hafnia Limited Common Shares

Welcome to Hafnir's first quarter 2024 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. You will be brought through the presentation by Hafnir CEO Michael Skov, CFO Perry van Echtelt, EVP Commercial Jens Christoffersen and EVP Head of Investor Relations Thomas Anderson. They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation. Should you have any questions, you can submit them via the chat function or use the raise hand function to be unmuted or to ask your question verbally. Questions will be answered at the end of the presentation. You will receive further instructions as required. Certain statements in this conference call may constitute forward looking statements based upon management's current expectations and include known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which Hafnir is unable to predict or control that may cause Hafnir's actual results, performance or plans to differ materially from any future results, performance or plans expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. In addition, nothing in this conference call constitutes an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnir's CEO, Michael Skov.

Thank you very much. Hello, everyone.

My name is Michael Skov and I'm the CEO of Hafnir. Thank you for joining Hafnir's first quarter 2024 conference call. With me here today are our CFO Perry van Echtelt, our EVP Commercial Jens Christoffersen, and EVP Head of Investor Relations Thomas Andersen. We will present Hafnir's performance for the first quarter 2024 together. Today's presentation agenda will cover four key areas. First, I will provide an overview of Hafnir and key highlights during the quarter. Then we will present the first quarter financial performance. Subsequently, we will provide commercial updates and an outlook on the product anchor market and finally conclude the presentation with an overview of our ESG projects.

Let's move to slide number two. Before proceeding, you should all be aware and take note of the mandatory disclaimer.

Some statements in this call may be forward looking and carry inherent risks. This call does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.

Thank you for your attention and let's start the presentation.

So let's start with an overview of Hafnir and the key highlights in the first quarter of 2024. Moving to slide number four. Hafner is one of the world's leading tanker owners and operators. We primarily transport refined oil products and chemicals, as shown in the simplified tanker market overview. As owners and operators of more than 200 modern vessels across eight commercial pools, we offer a fully integrated shipping platform, encompassing in-house technical management and chartering teams spanning Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the USA. We also have a bunker procurement desk that serviced over 1,400 vessels within our pool platform and for external ship owners. At the end of the quarter, we owned and chartered a diversified portfolio of 131 vessels, with the owned fleet having an average broker valuation of approximately $5 billion, giving us a net asset value of around $4.3 billion. Following our dual listing in April, we are now listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker code Hafni and Hafn on the New York Stock Exchange.

Let's move on to the next slide. Hafni's value proposition today runs deeper than ever.

This has been achieved through our active management approach, including good understanding of market dynamics. Since our merger with BW Tangers in 2019, our growth trajectory has been significant, and we are now one of the world's leading product and chemical tanger companies. Our approach to market assessment is to continually seeking advantages, opportunities as part of our active management strategy. Over the past five years, we have executed numerous strategic acquisitions and joint ventures, seamlessly aligning with our overall goals. Most recently, in 2023, we formed a joint venture with Socatra securing orders for four dual-fuel methanol MR new builds. We remain focused on pursuing strategic acquisitions and joint ventures that drive sustainable growth and position us for long-term success. Apart from that, we're also committed to delivering strong and sustainable shareholder value. We last updated our dividend policy at the end of 2022 to align our dividend payout strategy with our overall financial performance by allowing for an increase in dividend payout ratios should we reach certain leverage ratio targets. Since then, the strong markets in 2023 resulted in very high earnings, and upon careful consideration, we decided earlier in April to increase the dividend payout ratio further. This update includes increasing the payout ratio from 70% to 80% when the net loan to value is above 20%, but equal to or below 30%. Additionally, as the net loan to value equals or below 20%, we will increase the ratio even further to 90% from the previous 80%. This decision highlights our commitment to strong shareholder value while safeguarding financial stability. Additionally, our vessels continuous upward valuation is contributing to our net leverage ratios downward movement. To illustrate, within our time-sharded in-vessels portfolio, we hold eight purchase options. With this strong asset price environment, the value of these purchase options is now approximately $120 million, highlighting our ability to capitalize on this value appreciation. Perry will take you all through the financials in the next section. Thank you.

Thanks, Michael. In the first quarter of 2024, we've seen another continuation of very strong markets, mainly driven by additional ton miles arising from the ongoing issues around the Red Sea. This has led to spikes in spot rates across all segments, reaching higher average TCE rates than those during the fourth quarter of last year. As a result, we've achieved a net income of $219.6 million in Q1. During the quarter, we further optimize our balance sheet by reducing leverage. Our net LTV ratio has further decreased to 24.2% due to accelerated debt repayment and higher asset prices. Our net LTV has been on a steady downward trajectory, reducing by more than 7% if we compare it to the first quarter of last year. This deleveraging has gone in parallel with increased shareholder distributions in the form of cash dividends. In line with our recently updated dividend policy that Michael has just outlined, I'm pleased to announce that a dividend payout ratio of 80% of net income for the quarter will be distributed. This means we will distribute the total of $175.7 million for the quarter, which corresponds to $0.3443 per share, or approximately 3.7 Norwegian kroner for the quarter. This is Hafni's highest quarterly dividend payout ratio and amount to date and will continue to have further upside potential as we continue to further reduce our leverage in these strong markets. If we move to the next page, for the first quarter, we generated a TCE income of $378.8 million, similar to levels we generated last year. For this quarter, the IFRS 15 load-to-discharge adjustment has resulted in a negative TCE adjustment of $7.2 million. Including this, we ended the quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of $287.1 million and, as I said, a net profit of $219.6 million. Also, our fee-focused business has also benefited from this strong rate environment, generating close to $10 million, or 9.8, from our commercial pool and bunkering business. These adjacent business streams have continuously performed well and I will explain later in more detail on the pool and bunker economics later in this presentation. Our balance sheet is very strong with a cash balance of $129 million and a total liquidity of over $410 million. This includes undrawn facilities of $283 million. At the end of Q1, around 82% of our loans were hedged at a weighted average of 1.7% base rate, or the SOFR basis. This hedging strategy has largely protected us against a high interest rate environment, thereby controlling our financing costs. As a forward-looking company, we will continue monitoring our key leverage ratios and work on refinancing parts of our balance sheet to further reduce our funding costs and cash flow breakeven levels. This will enable us to deliver strong shareholder returns and to seize upon any opportunities that may arise. Even with the increased payout of dividends, as we've just announced, we continue to reduce our outstanding debt levels by further repayments. Then moving on to the operating summary. In the first quarter, our TCE was based on 10,455 earning days, and we generated an average TCE per day of $36,230. This improved largely from $30,732 per day in the fourth quarter. OPEX costs, which consists of vessel operating costs and technical management expenses, were based on 9,555 calendar days in the quarters, leading to an average of $7,886 per day, higher than Q1 last year, mainly due to timing differences in vessel supplies. Looking into the rest of the year in terms of current coverage levels for 2024, the product tanker market is still showing tremendous strength in the second quarter and in the remainder of the year due to factors like shifts in refinery capacity and firm oil demand in developing economies. So as of the 10th of May of 2024, 68% of the total earning days in Q2 2024 have been covered at an average of $37,896 per day. For Q2 to Q4, so for the rest of the year of 2024, 32% of the earning days were covered at an average of $33,901 per day. We then move to the next page. We'd also like to re-emphasize the strength and the importance of our pool and bunker service business. As an introduction, Hafenia currently operates a fleet of over 200 vessels across eight commercial pools, and they range from the largest product tankers to small specialized chemical tankers of under 20,000 that weigh a ton. Our highly specialized and dedicated chartering and commercial departments are responsible for developing, marketing, and negotiating all contracts for vessels that the pools operate. Firstly, Hafenia receives pool management commission in the form of a fixed fee and then a percentage of all net pool income. For all our pools, apart from the specialized and chemical pools, we charge a fixed fee of $271.5 per calendar day per vessel, plus 2.25% of net TCE earnings made by the vessel per own hire day. For specialized and chemical pools, we charge a bit higher fee of $296.5 per day and a 2.75% of net TCE earnings. For our bunker buying business, we receive bunker commission only in the form of a fixed fee of $2 to $3 per metric ton delivered to the vessel where Hafnia bunkers have acted as a broker. We have over the years increased our pool offerings and have consistently performed well in this business stream. With this success, we will continue to invest in our commercial platform to increase the service level and build skill in the pools and bunker business by adding external vessels with the right pool partners. Then moving to the next page, benefiting from solid fundamentals and anticipated increased oil demand, we can expect 2024 to be another strong year. We're well prepared for this market through our strategically positioned fleet and high spot market exposure. This page represents a comparative analysis of the three scenarios outlining Hafnia's potential earnings for this year. These scenarios include firstly, the consensus forecast from the equity analysts, Secondly, an extrapolation of the Q2 covered rates applied to the available earnings in 2024. And a third scenario based on Q2 to Q4 covered rates, similarly applied to the available earnings in 2024. In each of the three scenarios, the indications indicate yet another exceptionally robust year for Hafnia, with net profits in these scenarios in the range of $800 to $900 million. Moving on to the next topic. I'm sure you're aware that we have in April completed our dual listing of our common shares on the New York Stock Exchange, in addition to the current Oslo Stock Exchange listing. This listing marks a significant milestone in our growth journey, and we believe it will broaden our investor base and enhance our access to the capital markets. Our presence in the US market will provide investors direct access to our commercial performance and our proven track record of shareholder returns, while also generating increased value for our current shareholders through additional trading liquidity, now also in dollars. We can already see the trading activity picking up in the US, representing about 15% of the total trading volume, bearing in mind that our dual listing earlier was not associated with any capital raise. With that, Jens will now be sharing an industry review and market outlook.

Thank you. Thank you, Perry.

Hafnir primarily operates within the cyclical and volatile product tanker segment. Charter rates and tanker capacities depend on several factors, and over the next few pages, we will provide current market updates and our expectations. Since the beginning of 2024, the product tanker market has been positively impacted by ongoing safety issues in the Red Sea, which caused shifts in trade routes, so vessels are now sailing south of Africa. In addition to the usual northern hemisphere winter seasonality, droughts in the Panama Canal and low diesel inventories in Europe have contributed to a strong first quarter. Consequently, CPP on water, which usually is a proxy for transportation demand, has also surpassed all-time highs. The growth in oil on water is driven by longer voyages, not only from the Middle East to the West, but also across the Pacific, where the West Coast Americas are to a greater extent being supplied from the Far East. This represents a positive outlook as periods of high CBP on water and ton days have historically corresponded with periods of strong earnings. Looking at the volume over the past five years, we're witnessing a steady rise in daily CBP and chemical loadings and longer transportation distances compared to previous years. This more than proportionate increase in ton miles can be attributed primarily to Eastern refineries supplying many Atlantic consumers. Dirty petroleum products and crude oil, on the other hand, have seen a slight decline in cargo volumes as they've been struggling due to OPEC production cuts. We can expect these high ton mile levels to continue accommodating the dislocation between refining capacity and end users of refined products. Slide 16. While the impact of sanctions on Russia's products has been fully felt, with market inefficiencies and new trading lanes being calibrated and eventually settled upon, there remains an impact on inventories which have yet to be addressed. Worldwide product inventories remain below average, especially Europe's distillate inventories, and there will be a need to replenish them. This potential increase in European imports to replenish inventories will likely be through long-haul trades from the Middle East, where refinery capacities focused on middle distillates continue to open. With firm global oil demand anticipated, we expect a further drawdown of inventories to support product tanker demand and ton-mile growth. Slide 17. Apart from inventory levels and firm oil demand, The evolving refinery landscape is poised to bolster the product-tanker market. In 2023, export-driven volume gains were largely driven by refinery startups in the Middle East, such as Alsawa in Kuwait and Dukem in Oman. Both refineries, amongst others, coming online in Africa and Asia, are expected to continue ramping up production this year. The Nigerian Dangote Refinery has also commenced exports. It is generally understood that this refinery will be an export facility as its product specs go beyond Nigerian regulatory demands. When all these four refineries run at full capacity, global exports will increase by 0.7 to 1 million barrels per day from these refineries. On the other hand, Continued refinery closures are anticipated in regions such as the US and in Europe, necessitating these regions to replace volumes with imports. This continued dislocation of refineries and oil consuming regions will continue to shift global oil trade flows and add to products on miles. Next slide. Looking at the product tanker supply, the outlook remains positive. As a start, the global product tanker fleet is getting increasingly old. When we look into individual segments, the number of vessels reaching the above 20-year age bracket will increase significantly in the next few years, and the number of new builds on order are not enough to replace this tonnage. We're seeing a substantial reduction in utilization for vessels above 20 years of age, even during the current strong market. This disparity has also become increasingly large in recent years. This is mainly due to increased downtime and longer commercial waiting periods between voyages and partly due to Russian trading tonnage ballasting longer for subsequent employment. Even for vessels aged between 15 and 19 years, we see lower utilization than those aged below 15 years. The market will benefit from increased scrapping and a less efficient and generally older fleet profile. Slide 19. Looking forward, the outlook for product tankers remains very positive. Global oil demand is now largely driven by macroeconomic factors and market fundamentals rather than policy decisions. Although global oil demand in 2024 began to lose momentum, decreasing by 0.3 million barrels in the first quarter compared to 102 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, there is still an anticipated increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024. On the supply side, despite an uptake in ordering activities in 2023, the order book remains moderate and most of the orders placed are set to materialize in 2025 onwards. Overall, the fundamentals for the product tanker market remain strong, mainly attributed to firm oil demand, low inventories and the dislocation of refineries. The supply side further adds to this, as we can expect higher utilization of the existing fleet as older vessels become less efficient or gets phased out. And with that, Michael, over to you for the next couple of slides.

Thank you. We're now on slide 21.

So moving on, I would like to touch upon Hafnir's ESG strategy and targets. As we navigate through the evolving maritime landscape, Hafnir remains very committed to minimizing our environmental footprint, promoting diversity and inclusion, and upholding high standards of corporate governance. By setting ambitious targets, we strive for outstanding performance in all aspects of our operations. Moreover, we actively engage and partner with various industry peers, international organizations, and other key stakeholders to collaboratively address challenges our sector faces. By aligning our intentions with our actions, we aim to demonstrate that excellent commercial performance and sustainability are not mutually exclusive, but rather mutually reinforcing paths.

Slide 22.

Next, let me share a few highlights of Hafnir's ESG projects. In 2023, we took a first step into the methanol landscape through our joint venture with Socatra of four chemical IMO2MR dual-fuel methanol vessels. This is in line with Hafnir's sustainability values and ambitions to transition towards a greener future and a greener maritime sector. Furthermore, we are looking into a joint venture with Big Hill on the development of hydrocarbon fuel plants to produce low-CI blue methanol and sustainable aviation fuel at a later stage. Still subject to FID, this project will develop new sustainable shipping opportunities within the CO2 and methanol and sustainable fuel sector. EST remains a focal point on our agenda and believe we will further demonstrate great progress over the coming years toward our net zero ambition.

Slide 23.

To conclude, I hold a positive outlook on Hafnir's ongoing commitment to fostering a greener maritime sector and leveraging our strategically positioned modern fleet. I also look forward to the new chapter following our dual listing in the US. we will continue to build on this strong momentum to produce even greater results. This will allow us to pursue our objectives, invest in a greener future, and to also allow for greater shareholder returns. This comes to the end of our presentation, and I would like to open up the call for questions.

We will begin our Q&A session now. Should you wish to ask questions, you can submit them via the chat function or use the raise hand function to be unmuted to ask your questions verbally.