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Hayward Holdings, Inc.
7/30/2025
Greetings. Welcome to Hayward Holdings second quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Latonya and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. During the question and answer session. If you have questions, please press star one then on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Masca, Vice President of Investor Relations and FNP&A. Mr. Masca, you may begin please.
Thank you and good morning everyone. We issued our second quarter 2025 earnings press release this morning, which has been posted to the investor relations section of our website at .hayward.com. There you can also find the earnings slide presentation reference during this call. I'm joined today by Kevin Holleran, President and Chief Executive Officer and Ivy and Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that are considered forward looking in nature, including management outlook for 2025 and future periods. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our most recent forms 10 K and 10 Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that could cause actual results to differ materially. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward looking statements. Additionally, during today's call, the company Non-GAAP measures, reconciliation of historical non-GAAP measures discussed on this call to the comparable GAAP measures and be found in our earnings release and the appendix to the slide presentation. All comparisons will be made on a year over year basis unless otherwise indicated. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Holleran.
Thank you, Kevin and good morning. It's my pleasure to welcome all of you to Hayward's second quarter earnings call. I'll begin on slide four of our earnings presentation with today's key messages. I'm pleased to report second quarter results exceeded expectations. Net sales increased 5% with growth across both our North America and Europe and rest of world segments. We delivered strong profitability with gross profit margins increasing to a record .7% and adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 29.5%. This represents the 10th consecutive quarter of year over year gross margin expansion, a direct result of the strong performance of our commercial and operations teams. Robust sales growth and profitability coupled with effective working capital management enabled us to significantly reduce net leverage to 2.1 times. This is near the low end of our targeted range of two to three times and the lowest level in over three years, providing enhanced financial flexibility as we execute our strategic growth plans. During this period of tariff uncertainty, we continue to aggressively execute our plans to mitigate the impact of tariffs, support margins, and deliver on our commitments to shareholders and customers. We have a resilient business model with approximately 85% of our sales aligned with serving the aftermarket needs of the existing installed base. I'm confident in our team's ability to navigate this dynamic environment. We are refining our guidance for the full year 2025, raising the low end of our guidance range for net sales. We now expect net sales to increase approximately two to 5% and we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA of 280 to $290 million. Turning now to slide five, highlighting the results of the second quarter. Net sales increased 5% to approximately $300 million, driven by a 5% increase in net price, 2% lower volumes, and a 2% contribution from the Clark King acquisition. By segment, total net sales increased 6% in North America and 3% in Europe and the rest of the world. End demand improved in June, resulting in customer orders generally in line with normal seasonal patterns for the quarter. Non-discretionary aftermarket maintenance demand remains resilient, but the more discretionary elements of the market have been pressured. Consistent with the trend of prior quarters, homeowners building new pools or remodeling existing pools are increasingly electing to add technology to deliver the desired ambiance and experience, rather than cutting costs to de-feature their pool investment. Last quarter, we introduced you to OmniX, an industry-first suite of innovative products for the aftermarket. This automation platform provides a cost-effective way to accelerate technology adoption in the install base, increasing aftermarket equipment content per pool pad, and advance our technology leadership position in the market. We are pleased with the initial dealer response to the new OmniX-enabled variable speed pump and will launch other product categories with embedded OmniX control capabilities in the coming quarters. In addition, our commercial pool business continues to grow organically and benefit from the addition of the Clark King acquisition in June of 2024. As I reflect on our first full year of ownership, this has been a very successful integration for Hayward, providing a key building block as we expand our commercial pool business, delivering the expected sales and operational synergies. -to-date, our commercial sales in North America have approximately doubled while generating strong profitability. Consolidated gross profit margins increased 170 basis points to a quarterly record 52.7%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 7% to $88 million and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 50 basis points to 29.5%. We continue to make SG&A investments in the business to drive future growth. We are investing in advanced engineering and new product development to continue bringing innovative, industry-leading products to market. On the commercial side, we are increasing investments in customer care and executing targeted sales and marketing strategies to further increase our presence in high-growth regions and capture market share. During the quarter, Hayward sponsored the prestigious 2025 Pool and Spa Network Top 50 Builder Awards event. As we continue to invest in the industry and build upon our unified customer-first approach, we are seeing greater traction with higher-end builders and servicers. Finally, adjusted diluted EPS increased 14% to $0.24. Turning now to slide six, the tariff environment continues to evolve and will likely remain unsettled for some time. As of our last earnings call, the incremental tariffs were 145% for China and 10% for the rest of the world. Since then, we have seen movement in those rates, most significantly a reduction to 30% incremental for China. As a reminder, we are predominantly a domestic manufacturer with approximately 85% of our North America sales produced in the United States and increasing, as I'll discuss in a moment. However, we do source certain products from our Hayward facility in China and other third-party Chinese suppliers who are also impacted by the tariffs. Based on the latest available information, we estimate a total annualized tariff impact of approximately $30 million, with a partial year impact in 2025 of approximately $18 million, most related to China. This is down from an annualized impact of approximately $85 million when the China tariff was 145%. Our planning assumption is the current tariff arrangements remain in place and our outlook does not consider any changes that may potentially take effect in August. We remain agile and prepared to respond as needed. Our team is focused on aggressively executing our mitigation action plans. As previously communicated, we expect our direct sourcing from China into the U.S. as a percent of cost of goods sold to decline from approximately 10% to 3% by year end. We intend to achieve that target regardless of the eventual tariff resolution as it de-risks our supply chain and limits exposure to geopolitical uncertainty. On the pricing side, we announced a 3% tariff-related price increase in North America effective late April. This will remain in place. However, we elected not to implement a previously announced second price increase after the 145% China tariff was reduced. Our teams are working diligently to support our customers while protecting profitability. At this point, we expect to fully offset the current tariff-related cost increases. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Ivan to discuss our financial results in more detail.
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. I'll start on slide seven. As Kevin stated, we are pleased with our second quarter financial performance. Net sales increased 5% and exceeded expectations. We delivered strong growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to .7% and .5% respectively and significantly reduced net leverage to 2.1 times. Looking at the results in more detail, the net sales increase of 5% to approximately $300 million was driven by 5% positive net price realization, 2% lower volume, and a 2% contribution from the acquisition of corking. Gross profit in the second quarter increased 9% to $158 million. Gross profit margin increased 170 basis points to a record 52.7%, with a 220 basis point increase in North America offsetting a reduction in Europe and the rest of the world. We took steps in recent quarters to improve the performance in Europe and the rest of the world. And I'm pleased to see the sequential margin progress again this quarter, increasing 390 basis points from 35% in the first quarter and 750 basis points from .4% in the fourth quarter 2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased 7% to $88 million in the second quarter and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 50 basis points to 29.5%. As a reminder, we are strategically reinvesting in the business to drive future growth with targeted initiatives in sales and marketing, customer service, and engineering. Our effective tax rate was approximately 25% in the second quarter, consistent with our guidance. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 14% to $0.24, turning to slide 8 for a review of reportable segment results for the second quarter. North American net sales increased 6% to $255 million, driven by 6% net price realization, 3% lower volume, and 3% from the clocking acquisition. Net sales in the US increased 6% and Canada was down modestly. Seasonal demand increased as expected as we entered the peak of the 2025 cool season. Income and orders were healthy and consistent with our expectations for the quarter and strong in commercial up double digits organically. Gross profit margin increased 220 basis points to a robust .1% and adjusted segment income margin increased 110 basis points to 34.9%. Turning to Europe and the rest of the world, net sales for the quarter increased 3% to $44 million, driven by 1% favorable net pricing, 1% lower volume, and 3% favorable foreign currency translation. Net sales reduced 4% in Europe and increased 16% in the rest of the world. Certain Middle Eastern and Asian markets were significantly impacted in the prior year by macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions and we are encouraged by the improving year to date trends. We are pleased to see the continued margin progression in the quarter. On a sequential basis, gross profit margins increased 390 basis points to .9% compared to 35% in the first quarter and adjusted segment income margins increased 150 basis points to 18.1%. Turning to slide nine for a review of our balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We are pleased with the quality of our balance sheet and the significant reduction in net leverage during the quarter and over the last two years. Net debt to adjust the dividend improved to 2.1 times compared to 2.8 times at the end of the first quarter and 2.8 times in the year ago period. Reduced leverage provides additional flexibility as we invest in the business and execute on our strategic growth plans. Total liquidity at the end of the second quarter was 528 million including 365 million in cash and equivalents plus availability under credit facilities of 163 million. We have no near term maturities on our debt as term debt and the undrawn ABL mature in 2028. A borrowing rate benefits from 600 million in debt currently tied to fixed interest rate swap agreements maturing in 2026 through 2028 limiting our cash interest rate on our term facilities to 6% in the quarter. Our average interest rate earned on global cash deposits for the quarter was 3.8%. Our business has strong free cash flow generation characteristics driven by high quality earnings. Cash flows are seasonal and the company typically has strong cash generation in the second quarter related collection of early buyer receivables. Year to date cash flow from operations was 188 million compared to 210 million in the year ago period. Largely reflecting strategic inventory management ahead of tariff related cost increases. Our outlook for the full year is unchanged. CapEx of 13 million in the first half was modestly higher than the prior year reflecting strategic growth investments and project timing. Consequently free cash flow was 175 million. Turning now to capital allocation on slide 10. We maintain a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation. Emphasizing strategic growth investments and manufacturing asset investments, tariff mitigation, maximizing long term shareholder returns while maintaining prudent financial leverage. We continue to pursue additional acquisition opportunities to augment our organic growth plans in addition to potential share repurchases. Hayward's board of directors recently authorized the repurchase of up to 450 million in shares over three years to replace a similar expired authorization. Turning now to slide 11 for our full year 2025 outlook. We are refining our guidance for the year raising the low end of our guidance range for net sales. For fiscal year 2025, Hayward now expects the net sales to increase approximately 2% to 5% to 1.07 billion to 1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of 280 to 290 million. We continue to expect solid execution across the organization, positive price realization and continued product technology adoption. We expect non-discretionary aftermarket maintenance demand to remain resilient with pressure on the more discretionary elements of the market. In April, we implemented an out of cycle price increase of approximately 3% in North America to offset the anticipated tariff related inflation. As a result of the partial year benefit of this increase, we now anticipate a positive full year net price contribution of at least 4%. Our guidance does not contemplate potential new tariffs effective on or after July the 27th. If these do materialize, we will take mitigation actions to offset as appropriate. We continue to expect solid cash flow generation in 2025 with a conversion of greater than 100% of net income at approximately 150 million. We are confident in our ability to successfully execute in a dynamic environment and remain very positive about the long term growth outlook for the pool industry, particularly the strength of the aftermarket. With that, I'll turn the call back to Kevin.
Thanks Ivan. I'll pick back up on slide 12. Before we close, let me reiterate how appreciative I am of the team's strong performance. In a continued challenging and uncertain environment, Hayward delivered another strong quarter, exceeding expectations. Net sales increased 5% and margins continue to expand, including a record gross margin. We significantly delivered the balance sheet 2.1 times while investing in the business to drive future growth. We refined our guidance for the full year, raising the low end of our net sales guidance and effectively implementing measures to counter the current tariff headwinds. As the macroeconomic and tariff environments continue to evolve, we are excited about the fundamentals that drive our business and confident in our ability to execute our growth strategies and create shareholder value. With that, we're now ready to open the line for questions.
Thank you. We will now conduct a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in a question queue. You may press star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Once again, that's star one at this time. One moment while we poll for the questions. The first question comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning all and congrats on a nice quarter and a tough market.
Morning. Thanks, Ryan.
My first question is on gross margin. You know, it really pops off the page. Just curious in your thoughts on the outlook for the second half, because it feels like you're not really raising the expectations there. So a little color there would be helpful.
Good morning, Ryan. Let me just first kind of highlight what drove Q2 and then we'll transition into how we see the second half. It was great to report a strong result, which really was driven by that margin performance and the record at 52.7. It does represent great work collectively that the Hayward team across the operations supply chain and the commercial teams are doing. You know, in some ways, I really think what we just posted in Q2, you know, shows the possibilities for what we can deliver. We looked at it across kind of four main pillars. You know, firstly, we've talked about this publicly before, but just to reiterate, you know, from a productivity standpoint, things going on inside our four walls. They don't really grab headlines and they're ongoing, whether they're, you know, our continuous improvement culture or weekly kaizons, things that drive productivity and some investments we're making in automation to be more efficient and more productive with the volume that we have. Secondly, is really what we're doing with the product line as we're rationalizing out some lower volume and some low margin skews at the same time introducing, you know, higher value, higher margin, new products to the marketplace. Q2 was better volume than we have kind of in Q1 or Q3. So, you know, again, we show there what can occur as we start utilizing more of our capacity in our global footprint. And then, of course, from a price cost standpoint, we continue to expect to be able to deliver price cost neutrality, you know, as we face inflation and more recently tariffs. As for the second half, I'll, and going forward, I'll ask Ijian to address how we pull that guide and the outlook together.
Sure. Ryan, as we step into the second half, you know, the incremental tariff price action that we took in April in North America, you know, that will benefit the entire second half and is expected to offset approximately dollar for dollar the tariff that we expect to incur in the second half. That will keep the absolute gross profit margin dollars protected, but will obviously moderate the gross profit margin percentage, you know, given net sales is priced up and gross profit dollars remain the same as we anticipated. You know, as we complete our operational mitigation programs, that will be the driver to open back up again the gross profit margin percentage. And as we've discussed, you know, those programs will progress and they will take, you know, through the end of this year into next year to fully execute. I think what's super positive is despite a moderating gross profit margin percentage in the second half, our full year guidance implies year over year gross profit margin percentage improvement, which, you know, we're super proud of. And as Kevin mentioned, you know, it takes a village here to tackle the entirety of what's being thrown at us and we feel really positive about how things have developed through the second quarter here.
Thanks for that. That was great, Keller. My second question is on the new pool outlook, I guess, a near term question and a long term question. So near term, what are you expecting for new pool for this year? And then it seems to me that the new pool market has been a category that's corrected the most since COVID. And, you know, do you feel like we're at a durable bottom here at this point?
Yeah, in terms of our outlook, I think it remains consistent with our original guide, Ryan, and that is, you know, we were calling for modestly down PK data, as you well know, the industry source there in the US calculated or communicated low 60s last year. We believe in as we continue to look closely at the permit data, there's a couple sources for that. But as we triangulate, I would say that it's still tracking to sort of mid single digit count off year on year, but is but is improving as we're working through the year. And again, the values, I know it wasn't asked in your question, but the value of what is being built continues to be positive as folks are doing it right and are putting features on their pools. As for, you know, where it can go from here, it's a great question. You know, this is near trough levels, you know, going back to, you know, immediately coming out of the GFC, it got a little bit lower. At that point, I'd like to think that the macro, you know, today isn't isn't isn't quite what it was back 15 years ago. You know, there's an interesting thing we talk about here around new construction and by no means are any of us proud of a 60,000 account coming off, you know, the more recent highs. But if you go back 10 years ago, you know, when when interest rates were very different than they are today when housing market. Or at least turnover existing homes, which is a big driver of remodeling activity, you know, was far different. We were building 60,000 pools then. So I think, you know, while the home owner is under much more pressure today, you know, in mortgage rates or call it 300 basis points higher than they were at that point. You know, we're building the same number of pools, which I think really underscores both the migration that's that's that's taken place to warmer climates where a pool is desired or maybe even needed. And, you know, I just think that there's a bit of a of a coiled spring here that as as interest rates and housing market starts to improve that we can we can inflect upward from the new construction standpoint.
That's really helpful. Thanks for that. I'll pass it on.
The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just want on the guidance to start off. I know the macro environment tariffs. All of that's pretty fluid. So last quarter, you guys, with the information at hand at that time, it talked about net price increase of five to 6% for the year. Now you're talking about four. But in that same context, you raise the low end of the revenue guidance range for the year. So, You know, presumably that's coming from a better volume outlook. Is that is that a fair assumption and is that coming from the US is it coming from Europe is it is it aftermarket maybe walk us through sort of the the revenue guidance uptake in the face of slightly lower. You know, net price increase view.
I would say what you laid out there is accurate. This time a quarter ago, we were talking, you know, five to 6% price based upon That announced a second off cycle increase that was really stem. That was what we backed off of that shortly thereafter when China incremental was changed meaningfully. So price correct your correct at 4% and with less price being put into the marketplace. We did. We do assume a stronger volume. Performance that we had still slightly negative. We were talking about negative two and a half this time last quarter to more of a negative one overall on on volume. And I would say since the pricing. That we're talking about off cycle pricing was only going towards us as that is moderated. That's where we expect the volume gains to come back from as that price is no longer placed into the market.
Okay, fair enough. Now that's helpful. And then maybe just another question on on the gross margin performance here because it's it's so notable. I'm kudos to you guys. It seems like there's still a lot of torque in that though. If you think about where utilization rates are for you. And also some of these mitigation efforts, which it sounds like would put you on a path to To start expanding margins again. But can you maybe quantify those those two buckets. If you think they're The right two buckets that could drive the most amount of incremental leverage on margins just sort of as utilization rates increase from this sort of, I would think it's 65 70% Level. What, what sort of the drop through to the margin and then also how are you thinking about you understand the timeline on the cost mitigation and moving on to China, but what's the actual margin implications and over what timeframe. Could we see that materialize
Good morning, Brian. You know, we have talked about this before. When we think about gross profit margin development. Approximately 10% of our cost of goods sold, we would say is fixed. So if we see 10% growth on the top line, we'd expect 1% leverage to come through the business of the gross margin line that that's the easy math on that one. When you think about adjusted EBITDA, you know, we have mid 20s. In terms of combined research, development, engineering, SG&A, we do expect to continue to level that as the top line grows. It's not all fixed. Obviously, we'll continue to make investments, but there will be leverage Opportunity there. In terms of the second bucket, which is the mitigation actions that we're taking to, you know, open up the margin again once we get through, you know, tariff management here. You know, there's a range of outcomes that Manufacturing teams, you know, step into each new year with with targets to develop the gross profit margin through lean practices and supply chain management initiatives. We've said this previously that we would expect somewhere around about a 25 bit increase year on year at a minimum coming from those types of activities. It won't be linear. There'll be years where we get more, years where we get more moderated results. But every single year our team set about to to improve the cost of goods sold outlook for our business.
All right, I appreciate all that color. Thanks, guys.
The next question comes from Sari Borodzki with Jeffreese. Please proceed.
Good morning. This is James from Sari. I just wanted to touch on the SG&A. So, gross margin was very strong, but SG&A as a percentage of sales increase. So, could you please share what kind of what drove the higher SG&A and whether this level should be expected kind of going forward?
We laid out, you know, earlier in the year, our plan for some very targeted incremental investments around SG&A. And that's what you're seeing with the with the SG&A percentage increase specifically around some advanced engineering and some product development, augmented by some additional resource around customer care. And some commercial resources, both selling as well as as well as marketing. So, we laid that out. We're spending mass. We're seeing benefits for it very strategically placed. And that's what's driving the incremental SG&A.
Overall, we would continue to expect, like I mentioned in the previous question, we'd expect to continue to lever our installed SG&A base. You know, this is a period of investment to grow the top line and to make sure our new product pipelines are robust. But as we go forward, we will continue to leverage our SG&A base. And I've been pretty vocal about our ambition here, which is to drive SG&A as a percentage of sales in the lower 20s. What happened this year, but we will continue to march towards that goal in the medium term.
Great. Thanks for the caller. And I guess I just wanted to get like more color on this commentary that you guys put on the press release that like timing of the orders for 2025 season kind of impacted the volume. So can you kind of elaborate on this comment?
In terms of the order profile, you know, what we typically see is, you know, Q4 is a strong order period for us. As we get early by orders coming in this time last year, we had some additional orders come into Q4 related to some in season activity, including the hurricane. And as we saw in the first half of this year, seasonal orders were as expected, which is, which was great to see, you know, in aggregate, the order profile coming into the business was sound. But, you know, we don't typically see a tremendous amount of orders in Q1 given the early by orders that we had received in the previous quarter. But in Q2 this year, the order profile came in as expected, which was growth year over year. So that was good to see. Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBank. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning, guys. Can you maybe just talk about what you're seeing on sell in versus sell through and just how you're thinking about channel inventories as we, you know, kind of get into the second half of the season?
Yeah, I
would say, you know, the
sales, Q2, well, let me step back. Q1, as you know, is kind of finishing off early by the year round markets are obviously open for business. As you get into Q2 is when some of the early by inventories get sold through, you're replenishing. And then obviously as we work through this quarter, Q3 is when those inventories will be drawn down from a days on hand standpoint, which really allows both the channel and the dealer network to consider the early by program, which will be publishing in the next several weeks and starting to dilute. And then we'll deliver later this year into first quarter next year. In terms of what we see in terms of days on hand, we're very pleased with the progress and how things look there. I think that we're well positioned here in the upcoming quarter here in Q3. And we would expect inventories to be in a position for our channel partners and our dealers to participate at a, you know, at a historically normal level as we get into the early by. So much more attention is paid today than maybe pre-COVID, you know, in partnering with the channel to make sure we've got the right product at the right time in the right locations. And I'm very pleased with how that's working to support the channel in the overall market.
Okay, Kevin, I think you had a question on new, but maybe just update us on what you're seeing on remodel upgrade. I know maybe you were expecting that to be most challenged. And then I think one of the distributors talked about, you know, repair versus replace dynamic and more people repairing versus replacement equipment. And just wondering if you're seeing the same.
Yeah, you know, on that last point, we are seeing, you know, parts as a percentage on a year over year basis is up pretty meaningfully. I do think that that points to the comment made last week around, you know, some of the aftermarket is looking to repair versus, you know, full scale. Sorry to repair rather than replace. I think that is that is happening to some extent. In terms of remodel, Jeff. You know, I think it's still a bit tempered, kind of like the new construction. It's still largely discretionary. As you know, the overall installed base is continuing to age, you know, somewhere up around 24 years. So there is some kind of limit to how long it can be pushed to the right before some form of remodel takes place. And we think that that is something that will improve as interest rates improve. And housing market gets going again. That is a big, it is a big part of the remodel. I think folks, you know, maybe before they're about to sell, they, they, they spend a little bit of money sprucing up the backyard and the pool or certainly what a new when someone buys into an existing home. They look to put their own personal touch on that pool that they bought with the home. And I think that that's going to that's going to improve as existing home sales starts to starts to increase, hopefully in the near future.
Okay, great, Kevin.
Thanks. The next question comes from Nigel Cole with Wolf's Research. Please proceed.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for all the follow up on Jeff's question on the this repair dynamic because it's something that Penta called out as well. How long has this been sort of developing? Is it something that's been a reaction to the latest price increases? And what we're talking about here, we're talking about, you know, reconditioning pumps. I'm just not sure I understand exactly, you know, number one, the extent to this is happening and, you know, and based on sort of prior history, you know, when we've seen this before and is this like a multi-year thing or is it something you see as a very, as very temporary?
I would say it's it's the the parts volume has been a couple quarters now of, you know, I mean, we would expect our parts business to always increase. You know, it's, it's another revenue stream in the overall business. But I would say, you know, the example that you gave is is is perhaps the easiest to talk to understand or to explain. You know, you can you can use the wet end of a pump and you can you can put a new motor on it or replace or repair a model. Sorry, a motor before you have to fully replace it. So that is being considered. I think I don't know if it's I would say it's the most recent round of pricing increases. As you know, you know, there there's there's been pricing put into the marketplace due to inflation before the more recent tariffs, Nigel. So, you know, parts have have increased in in in revenue for several quarters. But I'd say over the last few, we've seen perhaps a little bit more escalation in the year on year part sales.
Okay, so it sounds like some of the more higher value parts, you know, maybe a bit more apparent to be there. And does that limit the ability to push through price next year? Do you expect next year to be a regular way, you know, to 3% price increase on top of what we've seen? And then maybe if you could just address the reshoring of the China production to the US, how does the unit cost of a US produced parts compared to the land that costs ex tariffs for for the China stuff? Thanks.
Yeah, I'll let Ivan address the second part of the question as for next year, we would we would expect to be able to to push through price increase based upon what we see in terms of inflation. We're starting to look at that pretty closely. We are seeing some of our input costs starting to feel a little bit of a little bit of pressure around some of them. And we see some of the metals, copper is certainly out there in the headlines. And we assume that, you know, in our basket of inputs. So but we would fully expect to be able to announce and to realize kind of price cost neutral increase next year.
Yeah, when it when it comes to the comparison of the cost of manufacturing the US versus China, it does vary by product. I would say the land the cost of Chinese manufactured goods at the current tariff levels versus the cost of manufacture that product in one of our US facilities, you know, is significantly more than it was 10 years ago. It you know, and that now informs us it makes much more sense to diversify our product manufacturing away from China and utilize undercapacitated North American facilities. You know, we've estimated the incremental COGS impact to re reorientate the entirety of our supply chain away from China to be to be less than $10 million or, you know, approximately less than 1% of net sales. We will recover that margin impact, as I mentioned, as we execute the operational mitigation programs, including investment into our North American facilities for greater automation. And, you know, we are we're moving down that line at a pace. You know, as Kevin mentioned in his prepared remarks, you know, by the end of this year, we expect, you know, greater than 90% of our North American product needs to be manufactured or sourced here in North America. But we've now determined that the differential between China and US manufacturing costs is the minimus enough for us to to make these changes. That's great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning, everybody. It's a peasant for Mike wanted to take a moment to ask about what's going on in commercial. I know, Kevin, I think you said that your commercial sales as a percentage of revenue have doubled. Can you maybe talk about how much pull through you're seeing of Hayward legacy products to clorking customers and vice versa? You know, and then more broadly, we're about a year out from close now. How are you thinking about the trajectory for that end market? And, you know, what what types of level about performance do you think you're experiencing against the market at this point?
Yeah, we're really excited about what the commercial business for us has has become and what it can continue to grow or how it can continue to grow in the future. Yeah, it's as you say, we are at the one year mark. Overall, the the combined business, I say that because the the core king team and our existing commercial team have become one under a common leader. And it has doubled kind of overall organically, I would say it's it's I don't know if we're if if we disclose it publicly, but it's but it's a meaningful pull through and growth on what was our commercial organic business before beforehand. And, you know, in terms of aspirations, you know, commercial was kind of a load amid single digit part of our business. As we round out 2025, you know, we're we're anxious to see if we can get that to double digit. Overall part of our mix. And, you know, overall, we're we're we're kind of pushing or we're striving for, you know, something in the teams overall, I think the size of the commercial market, our presence there, our team, the relationships, the product line that we're building out, I think gives us all the ingredients to be able to, to continue outperforming what we see in terms of commercial organic business. So growth overall as as as as I've said many times, it was not a focal point of the business before the last few years. And we're really excited about what the future holds for us in this commercial space.
Excellent. No, I appreciate the color. And then I guess switching gears, I'll I'll I'll ask the required questions since nobody's got to it yet. You know, balance sheet is is in a really healthy shape. You know, maybe talk about how you're thinking about the M and a pipeline, the action ability and if there's, you know, particular product categories that are sticking out as attractive in the current backdrop.
Yeah, we're really excited to be where we where we said we would be here with this, you know, kind of 2.1 times net debt. I would say our priorities remain as we've laid out, you know, to continue funding the organic first and foremost, whether that's new product development or with some of the reshoring or unshoring of some production that was in China into our US facilities. That creates the opportunity for us to make some incremental investments around some manufacturing assets and some automation. So that's going to continue to be our top priority. But second is what you asked around. We have we have a healthy pipeline of opportunities, ongoing discussions and information gathering. You know, there's there's opportunities, both domestic and international for some bolt ons around our core residential business. As we just spoke around core thing that's going to continue to get to get resources and interest. Nothing for us to talk about publicly at this point, but know that it's that's a healthy pipeline and good conversations, good opportunities that were that were weighed right now from the M and a standpoint.
Yeah, I would just add as you know, we are very pleased again with what we've been able to do with the balance sheet, getting down to 2.1 times the low end of our communicated range of two to three times. You know, it's a great tick mark against against a lot of team members that have worked diligently to to improve the balance sheet to that level. We remain dedicated on our capital allocation policy to think about reinvestment in the organic side of the business. First, our capex took a tick up in the first half and will continue to to invest, invest both in automation and other initiatives around the manufacturing supply footprint. And just just to clarify on my previous remark, even though we are reorientating our supply chain away from China to service North America, we'll continue to use that Chinese facility that we have great team to to support our rest of world business. As Kevin mentioned, M&A remains a core thematic for this business. We are looking at opportunities and will continue to update you as as those opportunities may develop. And then lastly, return to shareholder given the very strong cash profile characteristics of this organization, we will have the opportunity to return to shareholder even satisfying organic and inorganic activities. And as we mentioned in the call, we have instituted the next repurchase authorization for 450 over the next three years. And as the opportunities arise, we'll execute if we feel it's appropriate to do so. So, again, super pleased with what we've been able to do. And, you know, we look forward to continued improvements.
Thanks,
everybody. I'll pass
it on.
The next question comes from Raffy Jarowicz with Bank of America. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning. It's very thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to just follow up on the trends that you saw through the quarter on sellout. I think you mentioned there was an improvement in June. So just wondering what you saw in terms of end market demand through the quarter, what maybe drove that improvement in June? Is there any difference between discretionary and non discretionary in terms of the more recent trends?
I don't think we would point to any meaningful change in trend. You know, as we look back on Q2, I know some other public comments mirror this. You know, April was a pretty strong sell through into the marketplace. Kind of, kind of, May, mid, mid May, late May into early June was not great. And then it really did pick up kind of latter half of June. And while we're not talking about the current quarter, July, you know, has kind of carried through with some of those, some of those trends. So we are feeling really positive about what the pull through into the marketplaces. You know, maybe from an OEM standpoint, whether it does an impact, an OEM quite like it may a channel or a retailer. The quarter in general was extremely hot and extremely wet, except for maybe the West Coast in terms of precipitation. So I think that, you know, that could have had some impact, at least the precipitation in the mid part of the quarter there. And as I said earlier, we are seeing permit data improve. It's still not positive on a year over year basis. But the rate of permits filed has actually improved through the second quarter. So I think that that could well play into some of the pull through race around new construction or some remodeling activity.
That's helpful. And then can you talk about the market share versus the industry, how you think you're performing? And then also like some of the SG&A investments that you talked about, but where do you see opportunity to gain share? Where do you feel like you're under penetrated? And if you could just update us on those initiatives?
Yeah, I mean, I'd say from a share standpoint, you know, we feel good about the pull through and our performance overall. You know, in terms of sales out, we believe we are net positive. You know, share gains in this industry are hard earned through relationship building, service levels, new product introduction, availability, etc. And I think we're doing, the team's doing a good job across all those different elements, Rafe. In terms of, you know, where we think our opportunities lie, we've been pretty open in discussing where we think we're under punching our weight historically. And we're targeting some of those regions with some incremental investment, whether it's with some of our hubs that we've spoken about for service and installation training to some additional field sales and customer care resources to some targeted marketing programs. So I'd say that's really what's driving some of the very targeted SG&A investments that both Ivan and I have spoken about on the call here this morning.
Helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Kevin Holleran for closing remarks.
Hi, thanks, Latonya. In closing, I'd like to sincerely thank our dedicated employees and valued partners around the world. Your hard work, passion and unwavering commitment are the driving force behind our success. Please contact our team if you have any follow up questions and we look forward to talking to you again on the third quarter earnings call. Thank you for your interest in Hayward and Latonya, you can now end the call.
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.