Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (The)

Good morning, my name is Audra and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Hartford Financial first quarter 2024 results webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our call and webcast on first quarter 2024 earnings. Yesterday, we reported results and posted all of the earnings related materials on our website. Now, I'd like to introduce our speakers. To start, we have Chris Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Beth Costello, our Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will begin taking your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team. Just a few comments before Chris begins. Today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results could be materially different. We do not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. Investors should also consider the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from these statements. A detailed description of those risks and uncertainties can be found in our SEC filings. Our commentary today includes non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are included in our SEC filings, as well as in the news release and financial supplement. Finally, please note that no portion of this conference call may be reproduced or rebroadcast in any form without the Hartford's prior written consent. Replays of this webcast and an official transcript will be available on the Hartford's website for one year. I'll now turn the call over to Chris.

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. The Hartford had a strong start to the year, sustaining outstanding financial results through the first quarter. Our strategy and ongoing investments, combined with disciplined underwriting and pricing execution, exceptional talent, and innovative customer-centric technology continue to drive outperformance. Let me call your attention to some highlights achieved in the quarter. Top line growth in commercial lines of 8%, with an underlying combined ratio of 88.4. Strong renewal written pricing increases, in commercial and personal lines, group benefits, core earnings margin of 6.1%, and solid performance in our investment portfolio. All these contributed to an outstanding and industry-leading trailing 12-month core earnings ROE of 16.6%, reflecting consistency of our margins and continued growth generated by our businesses. Now let me share a few details from the quarter. Commercial lines performance reflects strong top line growth at highly profitable margins. In the marketplace, we are prudently taking advantage of elevated submission flow, in part driven by the investments we have made to expand our product capabilities and the efficiency of the broker and agent experience. From that flow, we are using our data science advancements, pricing expertise, and industry leading underwriting tools to drive profitable double-digit new business growth in each of our three businesses. In addition, retention is steady and exposure growth remains solid, although moderating from the elevated levels seen the past couple of years. In small commercial, we are shattering previous quarterly written premium records while sustaining underlying margins. New business growth was 11% in the quarter, driven by strong submission flow and growth in E&S binding. We are particularly pleased with E&S binding, a key area of focus, which is on track to grow annual written premiums by approximately 50% in 2024 to nearly 300 million. I remain incredibly pleased with the overall performance in small commercial and bullish on its outlook. We expect to sustain outstanding financial results by reliably serving agents and customers with industry-leading products, an unmatched ease of conducting business, and unrivaled pricing accuracy. Moving to middle and large commercial, the financial performance continues to be exceptional. Written premium growth reflects strong renewal rate execution and new business growth of 18%, and especially good quarter and guaranteed cost construction and general industries. We are building a track record of delivering meaningful growth while consistently maintaining underlying margins. The stellar performance in this business is a direct result of our underwriting discipline enabled by the investments we have made to enhance our capabilities. Combining these advantages with our best in class talent, and the strength of our distribution relationships, we remain well positioned to profitably grow this business. In global specialty, results were excellent with underlying margins consistent with last year and solid top line growth reflecting our competitive position, breadth of products, and strong renewal written pricing. Written premium growth was propelled by 20% increase in our wholesale business with significant contributions from primary and excess casualty lines. We are particularly pleased with wholesale construction activity found in the quarter, as well as overall increased emission flow, both meaningful drivers of new business growth. We remain excited about the global specialty business including our position in wholesale and reinsurance market, and from a broadened product portfolio. Looking across commercial lines, we continue to grow our property book, another key area of focus. We are capitalizing on favorable market conditions with a disciplined approach, including no change in our catastrophe risk appetite. Property written premium for the quarter was approximately 17% higher than in 2023. Turning to pricing, excluding workers' compensation, commercial lines renewal written pricing rose seven-tenths from the fourth quarter to 9%, with strong low double-digit pricing in property and auto and high single-digit in general liability. Public D&O pricing is still pressured, though relatively stable with the fourth quarter. ex-comp renewal written pricing in commercial lines remained comfortably above lost cost trends. In workers' compensation, renewal written pricing remained slightly positive in the quarter. In summary, commercial lines delivered an outstanding first quarter result with ongoing momentum in the market. Moving to personal lines, our first quarter financial performance demonstrates progress towards restoring targeted profitability in auto as we continue to address current loss trends. Auto renewal written price increases of nearly 26% have likely peaked given our view of moderating loss trends for the remainder of the year. In addition, we have achieved new business rate adequacy in the vast majority of states, and as a result, have resumed national advertising this month. In homeowners, renewal written pricing of 15% during the quarter comprised of net rate and insured value increases outpaced underlying lost cost trends. This year, we are celebrating our 40th anniversary with AARP. In 1984, we embarked on this journey with a shared vision and commitment to serve mature market customers. Our focus on this preferred segment Coupled with our modern, innovative, and digitally enhanced product and platform, Prevail is a competitive advantage. Our updated offering is currently available in 42 states and represents approximately 60% of our new business premium this quarter. With pricing gains, enhanced risk segmentation, and moderating loss trends, I expect Personalized to meaningfully contribute to core earnings as it returns to profitability in 2024 and reaches target margins in 2025. Turning to group benefits, our core earnings margin of 6.1% for the quarter included improved mortality trends from the prior year and continued strong long-term disability claim recoveries. Fully insured ongoing premium growth of 2% reflects strong but slightly lower persistency and a 6% decline in sales, primarily driven by group life, where we are being disciplined with pricing and underwriting in this competitive marketplace. We continue to strengthen our capabilities for customer service with an extensive suite of tools for HR platform integration, member enrollment, process simplification, and analytics. As part of our strategy to grow amongst small and mid-sized businesses, we are investing in our platform. This includes strengthening distribution relationships and actively seeking out new partnerships. Employers are more focused than ever on the needs of their employees, and our products and services are a key part of that value proposition. Moving to investments, the portfolio continues to support the Hartford's financial and strategic goals, performing well across a range of asset classes, and market conditions, and Beth will provide more details. In summary, Hartford delivered another strong quarter with sustained momentum heading into the remainder of the year. Let me reiterate why I am so bullish about the future. First, our financial results continue to prove the effectiveness of our strategy and the impact of ongoing investments in our business. Second, Personal lines results are showing improvement. We are achieving necessary rate increases and expect 2024 margins to progress towards targeted profitability. Third, with our disciplined underwriting and pricing execution, exceptional talent, and innovative customer-centric technology, we will continue to sustain superior results. Fourth, investment income remains solid supported by elevated yields and a diversified and durable portfolio of assets. And finally, we remain dedicated to enhancing shareholder value through supporting organic growth, continued investment in our business, and proactively managing our excess capital. All these factors contribute to my excitement and confidence about the future of the Hartford and our ability to extend our track record of delivering industry-leading financial performance. Now I'll turn the call over to Beth to provide more detailed commentary on the quarter.

Thank you, Chris. Core earnings for the quarter were $709 million, or $2.34 per diluted share, with a trailing 12-month core earnings ROE of 16.6%. Commercial lines had an outstanding quarter, with core earnings of $546 million and an underlying combined ratio of 88.4, in line with our expectations and slightly better than the prior year first quarter. Small commercial continues to deliver excellent results with written premium growth of 8% and an underlying combined ratio of 89.6, further building on its impressive track record of delivering an underlying combined ratio below 90. Middle and large commercial also delivered outstanding results with 9% growth over the prior year, and this marks the fourth consecutive quarter of written premium exceeding $1 billion. The underlying combined ratio was excellent at 89.2, a .7-point improvement over first quarter 2023, primarily due to a lower expense ratio driven by the impact of strong earned premium growth. Global specialties underlying combined ratio was an exceptional 85.3, relatively flat to the prior year. Written premium growth of 8% was driven by accelerating renewal written price increases and new business growth of 17% excluding global RE. In personal lines, core earnings for the quarter were 33 million with an underlying combined ratio of 96.1 including a strong homeowners underlying combined ratio of 77. The auto underlying combined ratio of 104.4 was in line with our expectations and is a year-over-year improvement of 3.7 points once the reported ratio for the first quarter of 2023 is increased for the three points of development that occurred in the second quarter of 2023. This result is consistent with achieving the five to six point full year improvement we previously discussed. Written premium and personal lines increased 13% over the prior year, driven by steady and successful rate actions. In auto, we achieved written pricing increases of 25.7% and earned pricing increases of 19.1%. In homeowners, written pricing increases were 15.2% for the quarter and 14.4% on an earned basis. The total personalized expense ratio improved by 1.2 points, primarily driven by the impact of higher earned premium, partially offset by higher direct marketing costs as we increase our marketing spend to drive new business growth in those states where rates are adequate. With respect to catastrophes, P&C current accident year caps were 161 million before tax, or 4.2 combined ratio points, which compares to 185 million in 2023, or 5.3 points on the combined ratio. Total net favorable prior accident year development within core earnings was 32 million, primarily due to reserve reductions in workers' compensation, which were partially offset by reserve increases in general liability, assumed reinsurance, and ocean marine. In addition, we had $7 million of favorable development in personal auto physical damage. We also recorded $24 million before tax in deferred gain amortization related to the navigator's ADC. This positively impacted net income with no impact on core earnings. Based on our estimate of payment patterns, we expect total amortization of the deferred gain in 2024 will be approximately $125 million before tax, with the remaining balance amortized in 2025. We have provided additional information in the appendix of our earnings slide deck on both this ADC and the A&E ADC for your reference. Turning to group benefits. Core earnings in the first quarter of $107 million and the 6.1% core earnings margin reflect improved life results, continued strong disability performance, and fully insured premium growth. As a reminder, from a seasonality perspective, we tend to experience higher underlying loss costs in the first quarter. The group disability loss ratio of 70.1 improved 0.3 points from 2023 driven by continued strong claim recoveries, partially offset by higher incidents in paid family leave and short-term disability products. The group life loss ratio of 82.6 improved 4.1 points versus prior year, reflecting improved mortality. Fully insured ongoing premium growth of 2% was driven by exposure growth, which remained positive, albeit at a lower rate than in the prior year. Book persistency in the first quarter of 2024 was strong at over 90%, but approximately 1.5 points below record high levels in 2023. Turning to investments, our diversified investment portfolio continues to produce solid results. For the quarter, net investment income was $593 million. The total annualized portfolio yield, excluding limited partnerships, was 4.3% before tax consistent with the fourth quarter of 2023. Our annualized LP returns were 1.3% and included positive returns from our private equity portfolio. Our real estate equity portfolio returns were impacted by lower valuations and the absence of real estate JV equity sales. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, limited partnership returns in the second quarter are likely to be similar to first quarter results with private equity returns being offset by declines in real estate valuations and property depreciation with no sales activity. We continue to believe our real estate holdings are durable, and we will be patient as it relates to any sales in order to maximize value. Although we anticipate LTU returns for the full year could be below 2023 results, we continue to believe that over the long term, results will continue to add value and be consistent with historical returns. The overall credit quality of the portfolio remains high, with an average credit rating of A+. Net credit losses remain insignificant. Turning to capital, during the quarter, we repurchased 3.8 million shares under our share repurchase program for $350 million, and we expect to remain at that level of repurchases in the second quarter. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $1 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2024. To wrap up, our first quarter results reflect another quarter of delivering on our target return to enhance value for all of our stakeholders. I will now turn the call back to Susan.

Thank you.

We will now take your questions. Operator, could you please repeat the instructions for asking a question?

Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. We'll take our first question from Andrew Kligerman at TD Securities.

Hey, good morning. Chris, I noticed in your opening remarks you talked about some pressure on group life sales. Is that something that you foresee going forward? I mean, overall sales were, I think revenues were up about 2% in the quarter. So do you see that line being a bit pressured? And maybe you could give us a little color on what's happening in the group life area.

Happy to, Andrew. Welcome.

Yeah, we did call out a little lighter sales volume, you know, during the quarter. I'm looking at Jonathan Bennett. He could give you additional color also. But I think, Andrew, you might recall we've talked about being fairly disciplined in our thinking about where mortality is trending, you know, particularly coming out after the pandemic. And, yeah, the trends are downward, you know, but we probably – We believe we're still operating in an endemic state of mortality, which means it's going to be higher than normal, which we think will continue for at least the next couple of years. And we've been pricing our product with that view, which obviously has an impact then on sales if market participants don't have a similar view. I think it's all good. It's all healthy for us. Again, key message. I want you to know we're being disciplined, but it might come at a cost of slightly lower group life sales than we maybe have enjoyed in the past. But Jonathan, what would you add?

Yeah, Chris, I agree with everything you've said. And I think Andrew just reinforced the importance of us having our point of view and executing on that in the marketplace. If you think about where we are in the group life cycle, we're looking to the future, we're seeing improvements. When you look back at your trends, which is where you start in thinking about your pricing philosophy, a lot of that data is loaded with excess mortality and COVID losses. So the first step you have to do is figure out what to extract, how to normalize, if you will, for that data. And it might sound obvious to say, well, just take all the COVID claims out, but That's not how they always get reported. And so as a result, there is a fair amount of variation in judgment applied as you do that. And then looking forward, you need to make a call on where you feel like mortality will be in the next three to five years. And as we sit here today, if you were to pull some CDC data, I think you would see that, you know, the reported deaths are still trending, are still a bit higher than they were prior to the pandemic. So when we weave all that in, we have our conviction about where we think things are going. But I would say that the range right now in the marketplace and pricing is about as wide as it's been ever based on all of those ambiguities in how pricing can be developed. And that really is, I think, what the cause for some uncertainty in the marketplace is. But as Chris said, we have a strong point of view on where we are. We're confident and comfortable with that. And we'll continue to compete. Our capabilities are actually as strong as ever in that marketplace, and we feel quite good about our positioning.

That's very helpful. And then my follow-up is there's been a ton of talk now about long tail reserving. I mean, for a while it's been 16 to 19 underwriting years. Now people are talking about 20 to 22 or 23. And when we looked at your reserves this quarter, I mean, it looked pretty modest in general liability and soon green and marine, you know, and those were 16 to 19 years per year releases. Any concerns? I mean, you looked great, but some of your competitors didn't. And so anything to read into going forward? Any concerns on your part?

You know, Andrew, I'll start, and I'll let Mo and Beth add their commentary. But, yeah, I'm not going to speak to, you know, competitors because everyone's just, you know, slightly different. But, you know, the confidence that we have, you know, particularly in our current loss picks are very, very high. And I think the context that I think Mo and Beth will explain to you is that, you know, we've been hard at work in sort of improving our underwriting, our book, you know, re-underwriting it. looking at different classes of business, changing terms and conditions, and we'll give you more color. Beth can talk about the actuarial analysis that we do on a quarterly basis, which is very robust and gives us a high degree of confidence in our picks, particularly for the most recent years. But we're also humble enough to admit we didn't get everything right over the last year. you know, five years. And when we feel that adjustments are made, we're pretty clear and transparent about why we're making those adjustments and that'll continue going forward. But Andrew, as we sit here today, I think you got it right. We feel good. We're not immune, but on a relative basis, I think we'll be better than most. But Mo, Beth, what would you add?

So I'll start and then I'll let Mo provide some color and just add on to what Chris indicated. But As you noted, Andrew, in the general liability reserves, the prior year development that we recorded this quarter was related to the 2016 to 2019 years, some large loss activity. And as Chris said, we do evaluate these reserves, you know, quarter to quarter. And when we see activity, we do react to it. As it relates to the more current years, those, you know, tend to trend very well. As you know, these are long-tail liabilities, so even if in the short term they're looking strong, we don't react to that because, as I said, these are long-tailed in nature. But overall, we've not seen things in the more recent years that would cause us to change our picks at this point. And when I look at a variety of measures, and I know you do as well, IV&R levels, paid activity, I think our more recent accident years stand out as being strong. But it's also really important to understand, as Chris was indicating, actions that we've taken over this period to improve the overall book, which even adds to how we feel about our overall reserves in the more current years. But maybe, Mo, I'll turn it to you to talk about some of the things that you and your team have been doing over the last several years in this area.

ANDREA, MAYBE THREE THEMES JUST TO BUILD ON BETH'S POINT ABOUT ACTIONS WE'VE TAKEN OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. SO FIRST IS OBVIOUSLY WE'VE PUT SIGNIFICANT RATE IN EACH OF THOSE YEARS SINCE 2019 IN EACH OF THE THREE BOOKS, AND THAT IS WELL IN ACCESS OF SOME HEALTHY TREND. SECOND THEME I WOULD PUT OUT THERE IS JUST REMEMBER THE SME NATURE OF OUR BOOK. I MEAN, WE JUST HAVE A LOWER UNDERLYING, FOR EXAMPLE, AUTO EXPOSURE. JUST TO GIVE YOU ONE STAT. 79% of our middle market umbrella book attaches for clients with less than 10 vehicles. So it gives you a sense of the size of fleets, which is where a lot of the pressure is coming from. It's just auto. We don't have a transportation book of any real note. We've never deployed limits of greater than $25 million gross, and we have important reinsurance involved there. And the third, Andrew, I think we've taken significant underwriting actions, as both Chris and Beth referred to, since 2019. That's industry-related. It's related to litigation hotspots. We've managed limits. Just as one example in our global specialty book, we got out of all primary GL high hazard in 2017. We just didn't think we could make money, and we haven't gone back in just because we still don't think that marketplace is there. And so, Andrew, I hope that gives you a sense of the book, and we continue to invest in tools that are allowing our underwriters to make choices based on litigation hotspots based on industry, based on underlying auto. So we've worked really hard at this, and I think that contributes to some of the lack of news that you're seeing here.

Yes, very helpful. Thanks very much.

We'll move to our next question from Elise Greenspan at Wells Fargo.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the personal line side. Just kind of following up, I think, Chris, you said that you guys are kind of turning on, you know, new business growth or did turn on this quarter, that you're at, you know, rate adequacy in the vast majority of states. Can you just give us a sense, I guess, what are you seeing from a frequency and severity perspective right now And what do you expect, I guess, looking out over the next 12 months? You know, you said when you put the expectation out that you expect to get to profitability this year and then reach the target in 2025.

Elise, thank you for the question and joining us. We're pretty pleased, you know, with the start on personal lines in totality. You saw the, you know, the metrics that we've talked about, you know, 25.7% written rate increase. uh, you know, for auto, you know, 15 ish in, in home. And I think the team is, uh, you know, executing, you know, very, very well. I would give you a couple of data points to have you consider, you know, as we, as we think about the full year in 24, it was, we still see auto getting about 20 points a rate, uh, plus or minus. So we, we still have that conviction, which then lays the foundation for the targeted profitability in 2025, you know, that we've been talking about. I would say we're beginning to see, you know, moderation, both in our auto loss cost trends on a BI and a PD basis. I'm not going to give you precise numbers just because it could be bouncy, any one quarter to one quarter, but, you know, overall trends, you know, for 23, let's say we're in the mid single digits, And I expect, excuse me, mid double digits. And I expect that to, you know, come down into the, you know, low double digits, you know, range, you know, here in 24. And maybe there could be more improvement from there. But that's our best call, you know, at this point in time. And I think Beth importantly reiterated our point of view that we do see five to six points of underlying auto loss ratio improvement in 2024. I think that, again, will put us on the right track to hitting targeted profitability in 2025. So, yeah, we are rate adequate in 80% of our states. There's a couple states that are going to be laggards for a while. They'll go nameless. But we feel good about what we're doing with auto. And then, you know, likewise with home, you saw the underlying combined ratios improved over years. I thought our CAT performance in total FOR THE QUARTER, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO EXPECTATIONS, WAS STILL IN LINE OR WITHIN A RANGE OF LONG-TERM TRENDS. SO PLEASED WITH THE TEAM AND WHAT THEY'RE DOING BOTH IN AUTO AND HOME IN PERSONAL LINES. BETH, WOULD YOU ADD ANYTHING?

YEAH, JUST A COUPLE THINGS. ALSO, I POINT OUT THAT WE DID SEE SOME FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE 23 ACCIDENT YEAR, PRIMARILY COMING OUT OF THE FOURTH QUARTER FOR AUTO PHYSICAL DAMAGE. We see that as an important proof point, too. I just want to clarify on Chris's comment on the book Lost Trend, mid-teens, so that is mid-double digit, but just to be clear, mid-teens, and we do expect that to decline over the period, but as Chris said, we're being cautious and looking at it very carefully and feel very good to be on track to get to the improvement that we laid out at the beginning of the year.

Thanks, and then my follow-up is on commercial lines, looking at, you know, the price disclosure, you know, stable on a reported basis, right, but that obviously reflects the comp concentration. How do you guys see just pricing across commercial lines, you know, playing out, you know, as we move through this year?

Yeah, I'll add my color, and then, you know, Mo will add his. I hope you felt it in our tone, at least. We're really pleased. The team's working hard from an execution side. To have X comp, our written renewal rate increase to increase 70 basis points, I thought was healthy. That doesn't include an element of exposure that X has rate, which we call out in the general 2.3 points range or 25%. exposure, 75% rate base. So I think we see a lot of stability in the marketplace and still very optimistic as we play out 2024 here. So I think that, again, why we talked about early on of the year of the stability of our margins and generally having a consistent outcome compared to 2020. I think it's still alive and well in our thesis as we execute, you know, here through mid-year. But, Mo, what would you add?

Yeah, at least I would say it's competitive but generally supportive, you know, because we talked about properties moderating a little bit outside of our BOP. And the BOP is still accelerating just in terms of what we're able to get there in terms of rate. The access and umbrella is accelerating again. Auto is accelerating again. So broadly, I think we feel like the market is being fairly disciplined and supportive of what we're trying to get done for the year.

Thank you.

We'll take our next question from Gregory Peters at Raymond James.

Great. Good morning, everyone. So, Chris, in your prepared comments, you talked about the no change and sort of the catastrophe profile of your property business. And yet you said that you're growing your property business. I think the number you cited was 17% higher in the quarter. Maybe you can help reconcile how you grow your property business and not change your cap profile.

Well, cat profile versus risk appetite, I see a little difference. I mean, you know, we're not increasing our, you know, property cat, you know, appetite per se. We've always, you know, said that we're willing to write a property if it comes with, you know, some incremental small elements of cat, which I think we've been managing, you know, perfectly and Mo could give you, you know, more colors, but You know, I would say, and let me just give you a couple of stats, is that, you know, pricing in our property book, our global rebusiness is about 14% up compared to 14.4% in the fourth quarter. As I said, we're growing that, you know, 17%. And, you know, we're growing it in an important line. Spectrum, E&S binding, our general industries properties, our large property capabilities are up almost 35%. And again, the pricing, I think, is still firm and holding up pretty well.

But Mo, what would you add? Greg, I would just say that there are a couple of CAT metrics that the team were really focused on. And, you know, for example, AAL, so annual aggregate loss to premium ratios, trying to keep those flat. So as premium goes up, obviously, we would like the AAL to stay relatively flat. And the same thing as we think about tail, we don't want to put on the risk without thinking about the tail risk. So we are closely looking at tail multiples like, you know, for example, 100-year PMLs over premiums. So those are the types of ratios that we're watching. So yes, the exposure itself is growing, certainly from a cap perspective, but we're trying to keep it in balance as to the same rate as premium growth.

Okay, that makes sense. So then, you know, building on some of your previous answers, You know, I'm looking at the stats on new business production, policy counts inside your commercial business, and things look like they're going really well. I do remember, you know, a couple quarters ago, you calling out some price competition in the middle market area. Just trying to get an update on, you know, it seems pretty stable and the outlook seems pretty bullish, but when you look forward, you know, What are the areas that you're concerned about for potential competitive challenges?

Yeah, it's a competitive market, and I would say especially in the larger end of each of our segments. So the larger end of small, we are finding more competitive. The larger end of middle is more competitive, and the larger end of the specialty business. So anything with a lot of premium on the slip typically has a little more competition to it. But the only area that we're dramatically pulling back on is, as we've talked about many times, is public DNO. We just haven't seen that market stabilize the way we would like to. So you will see that book continue to shrink. Outside of that, Greg, I think we feel pretty good about the rest of the portfolio.

Makes sense. Thanks for the answers.

We'll go next to Josh Shanker at Bank of America.

Thank you for taking my call. You know, looking at the rate that you're pushing through on auto in particular, obviously it's sizable. Year over year, the policy countdown is down to about 5%, which that might be a good outcome given how much rate you're pushing through. One of your, probably the largest direct competitor in the market, they raise prices not as much as you over the last couple of years and lost 20% of their business. What is the experience of retaining clients given that you are a direct carrier and You only can present them with Hartford product. Are they wanting to change and you're convincing them to stay? Are they doing buy downs? How is that experience coming with the retention?

Josh, thank you for joining us. Yeah, that's the trade off we're making right now. Lower retention. for a more profitable cohort, you know, to get us back to that targeted profitability. So I don't think it's outside of, uh, you know, the range of, you know, expectations, you know, that we've had as, as far as, um, you know, that, that trade-off, um, I think we've talked about, you know, sort of the PIF count, you know, decline compared to 2023 before we still see that in the, in that 4% range. So again, that speaks to our conviction to, um, to get, you know, the necessary rate in, in the book. And you're, you're, you're right. I mean, it's a direct response business. I mean, it's middle America, you know, from a, from a customer side. So there's not a lot of, I'll call it financial engineer or engineering we're doing vis-a-vis rate buy downs on auto or home deductibles, things like that. It's, it's pretty straightforward. We're sort of, and again, strictly in the admitted business. Um, but I think, I think, generally, you know, people understand, you know, the need to keep up with trend, the inflationary pressures, the weather, you know, patterns are changing. All the social litigation and legal abuse systems that we've talked about is keeping pressure on our loss cost. And again, we've been able to work with our regulators to get rates approved either on a pre-approved basis or file in use. So I think we're executing well, and it's still a very dynamic and challenged environment.

I don't mean to belabor the point, but I'm just curious if the customers are giving you a chance to retain them, are they calling up and asking, what can we do to help me? Or are you just getting a notification that they've left to a competitor?

I think it's more the latter. I don't think we're having very many negotiations over the phone as far as our product and our offer. We're being empathetic when we talk to our customers, particularly the mature customers, but there's not a negotiation.

Okay. Thank you for the clarifications and answers.

We'll take our next question from Mike Ward at Citi.

Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could maybe help us with some of the puts and takes driving the underlying loss ratio in commercial, and I guess across the commercial sub-segment.

Mike, when you say puts and takes, compared to prior year, what do you have in mind? What are you trying to get at? yeah well i think you know last year you had mentioned i think commercial small commercial was hotter um just trying to see how the underlying um is doing year over year yeah i i would just share with you i get from an expectation side everything is pretty much right online i mean if you obviously you can see we improved you know slightly on a loss ratio basis you know from prior year our non-cat property is pretty consistent with prior year and maybe even slightly ahead of our expectations so i don't want to avoid a i don't want you to feel like we're avoiding a question but there's nothing to call out okay thanks um and then maybe just on the lost trend i know you know you said uh pricing was still um ahead of lost trend just curious how um how loss trend uh assumptions if they're steady in the first quarter relative to i guess you know 23. i would say generally our views on loss trends from 23 have increased modestly and that's obviously reflected in what we're trying to execute from a written rate side and the discipline we have there and You know, again, the guidance that we try to give our underwriters, you know, with appropriate discretion. But, yeah, I would say lost trend is up modestly in 24 compared to 23.

Okay. Thank you.

We'll move next to Brian Meredith at UBS.

Yeah, thanks. Hey, Chris. I was hoping, could you give us what your kind of E&S growth was in the quarter in your commercial line space? And just maybe your thoughts is, is that a market that you continue to expect to grow at a pretty healthy rate here going forward?

Yeah, Brian, I'll look to Moda at any of his color, but there's two E&S components I'd have you think about. One is in small, right? Our E&S binding business, which we've called out and We'd like to try to get to that $300 million level. And then obviously all our E&S capabilities within global specialty, whether it be property or casualty, that is an important component of what we're trying to do in the marketplace. But Mo, what would you add from an overall growth rate perspective?

No, Brian, I would say we're excited about the flow in both of the channels that Chris talks about, both in that binding, which is the small commercial, and the flow into our brokerage. That continues to grow nicely. We continue to see the growth, as Chris called out in his prepared remarks, on the binding side. And we're seeing really good growth in the brokerage side, which sits on our global specialty business in both primary casualty, excess casualty. That rate environment continues to accelerate, as I talked about earlier. We're undersized in property brokerage and in global specialty. We're undersized in inland marine. We're undersized in auto. So we just see that, especially on the global specialty side, there's plenty of opportunity, and the flow is there to support it.

Great. That's helpful. And then second question, Chris, bigger picture question here. Looking at your personalized business and understanding that the last couple of years have been challenging from inflation and stuff, but if I look at your homeowner's business, You know, it's been close to a decade since you've grown unit volume there. In auto, it's probably six, seven years, you know, maybe a blip here and there. I'm just curious, you know, maybe what is kind of what's going on during that period? And is the Prevail product kind of the answer to that now, where maybe at some point here, we'll see Hartford actually start to grow unit in the, in the purse line space?

Brian, I appreciate the question. I'm going to spare the torture, you know, going back seven, eight years for everyone on what didn't go right. But I think more importantly, and we've talked about it in the various settings that, you know, the prevailed product and platform does give us a step change in our abilities to effectively compete in our core market, which is a mature preferred segment through an AARP endorsement. that will allow us to be more competitive in auto, in home. And as much as I said, you know, we do continue to expect PIF count, particularly in auto, to decline, you know, this year by 4%. We've also talked about, you know, that we feel like we could start to grow PIF count modestly in 25, and then maybe more meaningfully in 26. So I think that's where we're at. We've made the investment. We're in 42 states. We should be in 46 by the end of the year, and a couple of other states will lag a little bit. But I think it gives us every opportunity to be growth-orientated, and then we'll see where we can take the Prevail platform. Right now, it's obviously geared towards a direct response platform and channel, but maybe there's others we would explore getting into at the right time. Once we finish off the implementation of prevail in all the states feasible, we'll start to think about the future a little bit differently. But we want to take care of the core right now. We want to get it back to overall profitability, particularly in auto, and then we'll build from there, Brian.

Gotcha. And on the homeowners, are there geographic constraints, just given where a lot of your customers may be as far as growth?

No, I mean, we're obviously in all 50 states on an admitted basis. You know, we paused our new homeowners in California, which is writing new homeowners business until the regulatory reforms get enacted to allow us to match price and risk appropriately. So that's the only self-imposed constraint we have. There's no other constraint besides our longstanding Not writing any new homeowners business in Florida since 15, 16, you know, years, almost 20 years ago, I bet.

Gotcha. Thank you.

We'll go next to Mike Ceremski at BMO.

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Did you comment on what drove the pricing increases in commercial? I think it came from global specialty. Any color there, if that's a trend or just maybe something that's mixed, one-off?

Ask the question again, Michael.

I don't think I understood you. Sorry. The commercial pricing, renewal-ridden pricing, increased XCOM from 8.3 to 9. I think that was driven by the global specialty segment. Did you comment kind of if there's a trend there that's that's causing pricing to move north?

Yeah, I would say that the components that are driving that is primarily global. Global had a good quarter. I'm looking at my sheets and all the casualty lines, property lines, international rebounded in a good way. So That's what I would call out, but Mo, what would you add?

No, I think we are continuing to see moderation in the negative rates on public D&O. We're certainly seeing a shift in our portfolio towards more of the management and professional liability, so there's a next coming through there. That's part of it. I don't want to get too nuanced on you, but just that's the only additional detail I would give to Chris's comments.

The only other thing I would add to that is When you look at the small commercial side, ex-comp, you know, definitely saw rate increase there coming from the spectrum product. So, again, obviously, workers' comp is a large portion of small commercial, but if you X that out, that contributed to the ex-comp growth as well.

Okay. That's helpful, Collar. And I guess lastly, just, you know, Not trying to nitpick, but, you know, you mentioned in your comments, Chris, that larger end of, I think, small, more competitive. Yes, you know, you're successfully accelerating growth on new business and small commercial. So, you know, any kind of color you'd want to offer there on those dynamics?

Well, the only thing I'll say before Mo jumps in is, our small commercial franchise is world-class.

Hard to build on that, but I will try. I think the nuance we're trying to strike for you is that there are competitive spots in the marketplace, and we're just really proud of how well our underwriters are navigating what is increased flow, and that increased flow doesn't come you know, as all businesses we want to write, and that's the same in small, middle, and global. The flow is up significantly in all three businesses, and we're just trying to get underwriters to really pick their spots, and that's what we were trying to call out. Mike, thanks.

And I guess just, it's a small, you've brought up E&S many times, and there's different levels of different types of E&S. It's been in your prepared remarks for a number of quarters. Is part of the E&S growth off of your small commercial business

chassis which is kind of you know the world-class product or is it just is it totally separate um that type of uh underwrite platform thanks no that's the beauty of the model mike we're taking all the strengths that we've had in the retail channel and applying the same business model to the wholesale channel and that's why we're so excited thanks next we'll move to aaron kinnar at jeffries

I think in your prepared comments and also in response to an earlier question, you talked about some of the pressure that you're seeing in the group life sales, just given your mortality expectations. That said, I think we're also seeing some slowdown in disability and voluntary. Can you maybe talk about the drivers for that slowdown?

Yeah, I'll just give you my point of view, and then I'll ask Jonathan to add. I think disability is performing exceptionally well, whether it be claim recoveries and terminations and getting people back to work. I think growth has been solid. I was just referring specifically to the top line, to the NPE. Yes. I'm giving you all the good stuff and then we'll get to that. Um, sorry. So no, thank you. So again, I want you to feel like the book is, uh, is, is healthy. And the top line is I tried to address in, in my commentary is, uh, is a little challenge. Some of that is the exceptional 2023 we had, you know, but some of it is challenged as, as we mentioned, due to, our views on life insurance and how we're going to be disciplined there. Jonathan can give you additional color. So JB, what would you say?

Yeah, Yaron, just a couple of things on there. In terms of the top line, 23, of course, was pretty exceptional on all the key metrics, the drive result. But I think we are seeing really strong results here even in the first quarter of 2024, comparatively speaking. But from a persistency standpoint, We still have book persistency in the low 90s, which is historically quite good. We're very excited about that. It was even higher a year ago. And I think that does reflect a little bit the competitive nature of the market and the more likelihood that a customer may, in fact, take a case or take their business out to market. So we're addressing all of that. I think we're working through those renewal challenges and being quite successful with it and very much picking our spots. On the new sales, also a bit more competitive in that market. We're excited adding new lines of coverage to existing cases. That's always important. And I think one of the best opportunities we have to continue sales growth is rounding that out. There can be a little bit of a downside with that, of course, in some cases around voluntary as an example. You know, it's a smaller set of lines. If the bigger lines like disability move, perhaps voluntary goes with it. So those kinds of effects in the marketplace as we're working through and addressing them, but we continue to have really strong results on supplemental health. And we've had some very exciting growth. It's a little bit more tapered right now, but an area that we continue to expand in and see a lot of big opportunities. That trend into the future in 2024 and beyond I can already see continues to accelerate. a place that we will stay focused and continue to deliver results.

Thank you. And my second question, I want to make sure I heard, Chris, your comment correctly with regards to loss trends and personal auto. Did you say that they're currently in the low teens or you expect them to be in the low teens for 24?

I was trying to do a compare to 23 to 24, mid-teens and 23. low double digits in 24 for the full year. And what I was just trying to say is it bounces around from quarter to quarter. So I'd rather have you see the bigger picture trend that going from mid-teens down to even high double digits is a pretty meaningful move.

And I guess the reason I'm asking this is it does seem to be a little bit higher than what we're seeing industry-wide right now? Is there something unique to the AARP book or to the policies that you're writing that that would keep the loss trend a bit above maybe mid to high single digits?

I would just say our judgment and prudence is leading us to call that number where we sit today.

And if it changes during the year, we'll let you know. Okay.

Thank you.

Moving next, we'll go to Meyer Shields at KBW.

Great. Thank you so much for putting me in. I just had one question. Can you give us some guidance on how to think about how much lower the current personal line expense ratio is compared to when you're in normal growth mode?

So I would say on the expense ratio, I would have you think of the full year 23 compared to the full year 24 about being the same. Beth, I don't know if you would add any.

Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, as we go through 24, you might see a slight uptick in Q2, because as we said, we are turning on marketing. Again, as the rate continues to earn into the book, that'll start to level off. But our overall expectation right now for personal lines expense ratio, as Chris said, full year this year to full year last year will be relatively flat.

Okay. Is it fair to think of it as being a little bit depressed just because of the, I guess, the states where growth doesn't make sense yet?

I don't think I understood the question. It was just hard to hear you. I'm sorry.

No. I was just trying to get a sense as to whether we should expect, you know, when we look out to whenever personal auto is normalized, that the expense ratio should be a little bit higher than where it's been running for the past couple of years.

Not necessarily, right? I mean, there's a volume issue, dollars, and then a rate. so again with the amount of rate we're getting the book i think it's helping keep the ratio the same we might actually be increasing dollars which we are sort of in a j curve model this year but from a ratio side that's why i tried to give you that full year number to sort of manage your expectation okay that's perfect thank you so much

And we'll move next to David Motemandem at Evercore ISI.

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in. Just a question on the expense ratio and commercial lines. You have 20 basis points year-over-year improvement, obviously following a strong year last year. You know, I was wondering, is there anything one-off or anything that prevented us from seeing more expense ratio improvement year-over-year?

So if you're looking at just quarter one to where we ended last year, I'll just remind you that in first quarter we tend to see a higher expense ratio just because of some expense items that hit more heavily in Q1. When I think about commercial lines, sort of full year this year for 24 compared to 23, expecting it to be relatively flat as we go through the year. Again, any one quarter, you can have some movements relative to bad debt reserve adjustments and things like that. But overall, we see it relatively consistent.

Got it. Thanks. That's helpful.

And we'll go next to Bob Wang at Morgan Stanley.

Thank you. Just maybe a follow up on reserving. I think this is for either Beth or Mo. When we think about the favorable reserving in workers comp, just curious if there's a dollar amount that you can give us in terms of how favorable it was and how adverse general liability was.

Sure, I'll take that. We actually have very detailed disclosures in our 10Q and our IFS on that. So for workers' compensation releases, we're about $67 million, and then we always have the workers' discount accretion that comes in for $12 that goes offset against that. And then general liability was $17, and marine was $7, and assumed reinsurance was $9. But You could go to page 38 in our 10Q, and it lays it all out for you.

Yeah, sorry for that. I must have missed it, so that's totally my fault. So maybe just a follow-up on that. Can you maybe talk about the current just reserving environment for workers' comp in terms of as we now, three years after COVID, are there still quite a bit of a favorable uplift, so to speak, post-COVID, or do you think the workers' comp books from a reserving perspective is likely to kind of normalize back down to more of a, you know, pre-2019 environment.

Yeah. It's a complicated question, but I would say I think it's normalized.

You know, obviously during COVID, you know, there were a lot of assumptions made as far as, you know, where trends were. that obviously turned out to be prudent. But, you know, sort of two years out from sort of the official end of, you know, workers' comp, I think trends are behaving as we would expect. You know, frequency continues to be positive. Severity, you know, is still within our expectations, which we always talked about, Bob, of being a 5% trend, which, again, severity is behaving within that expectation. So, yeah, as I think about 23 and 24, there's a lot of continuity and consistency in workers' comp trends.

Really appreciate that. Thank you very much.

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Susan Spivak for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining us today. And as always, please reach out with any additional questions. Have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.