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Operator
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Hormel Foods third quarter 2022 earnings webcast and conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star and then one. To remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to David Dahlstrom, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
David Dahlstrom
Good morning. Welcome to the Hormel Foods conference call for the third quarter of fiscal 2022. We released our results this morning before the market opened, around 6.30 a.m. Eastern. If you did not receive a copy of the release, you can find it on our website at HormelFoods.com under the Investor section. On our call today is Jim Snee, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jacinthe Smiley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Jim will provide a review of the company's third quarter results, an update on business initiatives, and a perspective on the remainder of fiscal 2022. Jacinthe will provide detailed financial results and further commentary on the third quarter and our outlook. The line will be open for questions following Jacinthe's remarks. As a courtesy to the other analysts, please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If you have additional questions, you are welcome to get back into the queue. An audio replay of this call will be available beginning at noon today Central Standard Time. The dial-in number is 877-344-7529 and the access code is 187-4087. It will also be posted to our website and archived for one year. Before we get started, I need to reference the Safe Harbor Statement. Some of the comments made today will be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the statements we will be making. Please refer to our most recent annual report and Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which can be accessed at HormelFoods.com under the Investors section. Additionally, please note the company uses non-GAAP results to provide investors with a better understanding of the company's operating performance. These non-GAAP measures include organic volume, organic net sales, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating margin, adjusted diluted earnings per share, and net debt to EBITDA. Discussion on non-GAAP information is detailed in our press release and third quarter earnings supplement, which can be accessed from our corporate website or located on our investor website, investor.hormelfoods.com. I will now turn the call over to Jim Snee.
Eastern
Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. With the results we announced this morning, we have successfully achieved seven straight quarters of record sales and four consecutive quarters of earnings growth. In the current environment, this is an especially notable achievement. Over the last 12 months, we have delivered four consecutive quarters of record sales in excess of $3 billion. We've grown diluted earnings per share 15% compared to the trailing 12-month period. We've made considerable progress across our supply chain, including investments in capacity to support high growth categories and improvements in staffing levels, production volumes, inventories, and fill rates. We've integrated our largest acquisition to date with the planter's snack nuts business, We began transformational work on the Genio Turkey Store segment while simultaneously managing through the impacts of HPAI. We further de-risked commodity profitability with a new pork supply agreement. We've generated over $1 billion in operating cash flow. And we've increased the dividend for the 56th consecutive year. Our experience management team has again proven their ability to navigate and grow the business in volatile market conditions. And these results demonstrate that our business is built for growth, our brands remain vibrant and relevant, our strategies remain effective, and our inspired team members around the world truly embody our results matter mentality. In the third quarter, we delivered another quarter of record sales and double-digit operating income growth. Our team's execution again played a pivotal role in growth this quarter, as together we overcame significant challenges, including continued broad-based inflationary pressures, persistent upstream and downstream supply chain disruptions, limited turkey supply, and impacts in China from COVID-related restrictions and temporary plant shutdowns. Double-digit operating income growth this quarter was led by outstanding contributions from Genio Turkey Store and refrigerated foods. The Genio Turkey Store team significantly outperformed our profit expectations for the as the team effectively managed limited turkey supply and maximized operational performance, all while working to restore the impacted turkey farms across the supply chain. Refrigerated foods delivered double digit value added earnings growth on retail and food service items, more than offsetting lower commodity profitability. Similar to prior quarters, Our balanced business model was able to offset inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, which were both significant headwinds during the quarter. Most importantly, our performance indicates our brands remain healthy and are generating growth. Consumers and operators have continued to engage with our brands due to their value, convenience, and versatility. The team drove volume, sales, and change at retail for brands such as Skippy, Hormel Gatherings, Hormel Chili, Dinty Moore, and Merry Kitchen. I would like to acknowledge the tremendous work and coordinated efforts of the Skippy team, who supported our customers and the category this past quarter. We continue to drive growth across our premium retail brands for products such as Applegate natural and organic meats and Columbus charcuterie. We also experienced an acceleration across our center store portfolio, which is firmly aligned with the value shopper. The grocery product segment delivered strong organic volume and sales growth during the quarter and is well positioned to grow as consumers seek flexibility, versatility, and yield at lower price points. Demand for food service products remained elevated as well as operators again turned to our items to help mitigate labor pressures and diversify menu offerings. Value-added products such as our premium bacon and sausage, sliced meats, and line of premium prepared proteins performed exceptionally well this quarter. We saw great demand for brands including Austin Blues, Natural Choice, Bacon One, Cafe H, and Old Smokehouse. Regardless of channel, our brands have responded well to the pricing actions we have taken over the past 18 months. Even as current macroeconomic conditions pressure some of our customers, consumers, and operators. The demand environment has remained favorable. especially for food and convenient meal solutions. We have seen this in the positive syndicated data for many of our grocery and refrigerated products and in the memento behind our branded food service items. In some cases, demand is still outpacing our ability to fully supply. Our broad portfolio of products spanning value tiers, eating occasions, and channels positions as well. We anticipate some additional impact from elasticities as new pricing actions are reflected in the marketplace, and we have accounted for this in our outlook. To date, the impact of price elasticities has been and as we have increased production to drive improved fill rates. Our teams remain keenly focused on the long-term needs of the business, our strategic priorities, and protecting the equity of our brands. Hormel Foods has a history of continuously evolving to become a better, more agile, and more balanced global branded food company. In early August, we announced the next step in our strategic evolution, our Go Forward initiative. Effective October 31st of this year, the beginning of fiscal 2023, we will be organizing the business into three empowered segments, retail, food service, and international. As a result of this initiative, we expect to Elevate our clear strategic growth priorities. Better align the business to the needs of our customers, consumers, and operators. Deepen our sales capabilities. Simplify our approach to customers and operators. And enable faster decision making. The three new segments will continue to be supported by the company's One Supply Chain team, and corporate functions. We are a much different company today than we were even a decade ago. Since the acquisition of Skippy in 2013, we have shifted to becoming a global branded food company with a food forward mentality and a growing set of leading brands across channels. This shift has involved a series of intentional and strategic actions, including numerous strategic acquisitions focused on snacking and entertaining, growing our branded leadership positions in retail and food service, and expanding our geographic footprint. It includes regular evaluations of the portfolio, which in some cases led to divestitures of businesses where we identified a better long-term owner. It includes a right-sizing of our pork supply chain, including the divestiture of two hog harvest facilities and the entry into long-term pork supply agreements. It includes the creation of one supply chain, which centralized operations, logistics, and sourcing decisions to drive efficiencies for the total company. The modernization of our technology and e-commerce capabilities, including Project Orion and the creation of the Digital Experience Group, and most recently, the transformational efforts at Genio Turkey Store. This next step, a new operating model, is a culmination of these recent strategic actions. As part of the Go Forward initiative, we will be folding in the important work we've been doing to transform the Genio Turkey Store segment. As we said when we announced the transformational efforts, turkey will continue to play an important role in our company and will contribute to growth in both retail and food service. We remain on track to integrate all business functions, combine the Gen EO turkey store supply chain into the broader Hormel Foods One supply chain, and drive SG&A cost synergies of approximately $20 million to $30 million annually by fiscal 2023. Our successful transition to the new strategic operating model is dependent on strong leadership and execution from our teams. As previously disclosed, Deanna Brady, Mark Arata, and Sven Neufeld will be leading the retail, food service, and international segments, respectively. Each of these leaders has over 25 years of experience with the company and reputations for delivering results. Under their leadership, we expect to drive sustainable growth in line with our long-term growth goals of 2 to 3 percent top-line growth and 5 to 7 percent bottom-line growth. There has been a tremendous amount of work done on this initiative and more work to do in the coming months as we create the Hormel Foods of the future. We will provide more information on Go Forward next week at the Barclays Global Consumer Staple Conference. We will also be releasing recast financial information during the first quarter of fiscal 2023 to aid in comparability to historical financial data. Earlier this week, we released our 2021 Global Impact Report, which details how we are advancing corporate responsibility, ESG, and our food journey at Hormel Foods. This is the 16th year we have published a report of this kind. Thanks to the incredible work and dedication of our team members, partners, and suppliers, Hormel Foods is making a difference. We remain committed to our mission to be one of the top corporate citizens in the world and encourage you to review the report and the progress we have made to advance efforts through our 20 by 30 challenge. Our business remains healthy. Even as we continue to navigate some of the most difficult operating conditions in the company's 130-year history, our revised full-year guidance reflects both the continued top-line strength we expect to see across our business and escalated cost pressures which are impacting the back half of the year. For the full year, we are increasing our net sales expectations to $12.2 to $12.8 billion, and we are lowering our diluted earnings per share guidance range to $1.78 to $1.85 per share. There are two key takeaways from our guidance revision. One, we expect top line strength across our businesses to continue as our portfolio is well positioned for the current macroeconomic climate. And two, an escalation in certain operational, logistical, and inflationary costs, which began impacting results in the third quarter, has lowered our earnings expectations for the back half of the year. However, we believe the majority of these cost pressures to be transient in nature and to subside over time. First, from a top-line perspective, momentum remains very strong. We are confident in our ability to exceed our previous sales guidance due to strong demand for our food service and center store grocery brands, higher turkey markets, and the pricing actions we have taken across the portfolio. Our long-term strategy to meet consumers where they want to eat with a broad portfolio of products has been a key differentiator in the current environment. Second, we expect to absorb incremental costs in the fourth quarter related to certain operational, logistical, and inflationary headwinds, similar to what we experienced in the third quarter. In terms of magnitude, we view each of these cost buckets similarly. Starting with operational costs, we have made progress across our supply chain over the past year as a recovery in staffing levels has contributed to higher production volumes, inventories, and fill rates. As we said last quarter, inefficiencies related to new team members and turnover have impacted operations leading to higher costs. We continue to see this pressure in the third quarter and do not expect meaningful improvement for the balance of the year. We are also experiencing higher than expected freight and warehousing costs, both domestically and for our international business. Freight rates have moderated recently, but this benefit has been more than offset by elevated fuel surcharges and significantly higher warehousing costs. Protein prices on key inputs have remained elevated compared to our expectations and historical averages. While we have mechanisms in place to manage the impact of elevated and volatile protein costs, markets have generally sustained higher price levels for longer than we anticipated in our previous outlook. We believe these cost pressures are transient and likely to subside over the coming quarters. We fully expect our one supply chain team to continue to improve over time as our teams effectively onboard, train, and retain our new team members while striving to provide a best-in-class workplace experience. This is in addition to the investments we are making in automation and supply chain optimization. and capture the benefits from our recently expanded logistics network. Finally, we are starting to see relief across key input cost markets that are better aligned to our expectations, which should present the opportunity for margin expansion in the coming quarters. The revision to guidance for the year is disappointing, but we will continue to manage the business for the long term. as we navigate these difficult business conditions, leveraging our balanced business model and experienced management team. As I look beyond the fourth quarter, I have a high level of optimism regarding our future. We expect our brands to continue to perform well and plan to introduce an exciting slate of innovation in 2023. We anticipate improvements in our supply chain and the industry-wide supply chain as the broader markets stabilize. We expect turkey supply to normalize, allowing our teams to continue their work to create a demand-oriented and optimized turkey portfolio. We fully expect our international business to be a significant growth driver for the company and to benefit from the investments we have made during the year. including the new Asia Pacific Innovation Center. And once implemented, our new strategic operating model will better align the businesses to the needs of our customers, consumers, and operators to drive sustainable long-term growth. For all of these reasons, and from the inspired work of our 20,000 team members around the world, I could not be more excited for the future of our company. At this time, I will turn the call over to Jacinthe Smiley to discuss financial information relating to the quarter and provide more color on key drivers to the outlook.
David
Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone. Record third quarter sales were $3 billion. Net sales and organic net sales increased 6% and 3%, respectively, compared to last year. Volume for the quarter was 1.1 billion pounds, down 9% compared to last year. Organic volume declined 11%. These declines were in line with our expectations and are attributable to our efforts to rationalize lower margin commodity port volume and lower turkey sales as a result of HPAI. These volume declines generally hit strong underlying growth for many of the value-added businesses. Gross profit increased $83 million compared to last year, a 20% increase. Gross profit margin was 16.7% compared to 14.8% last year. Improvement was driven primarily by strength in Genio Turkey Store and refrigerated food. in addition to strategic pricing actions to help offset inflationary pressures. SG&A expenses declined 2% in the third quarter as we left the planters acquisition related expenses last year. SG&A as a percentage of sales for the third quarter decreased to 7.3% from 7.9% last year. We continued to generate strong sales and demonstrate disciplined cost management. We again increased support for our leading brands. For the quarter, advertising expense increased 21% or approximately one cent per share. Advertising expenses have increased 29% year to date. Operating income increased 40% to $200. On a comparable basis, which removes the impact of planters' one-time costs last year, adjusted operating income increased 17%. Operating margin for the quarter was 9.6% compared to 7.2% last year. Adjusted operating margin was 8.7% last year. The effective tax rate was 24.5% for the quarter, up from 13.3% for the same period last year. Last year's rate reflected the benefit from a large volume of stock auction exercises and a one-time foreign tax benefit. Our effective tax rate guidance range of 20.5% to 22.5% remains unchanged. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share of $0.40 represented a 25% increase compared to last year. On a comparable basis, adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 3%. The company continued to generate consistent and strong cash flows. Operating cash flow for the third quarter increased 143% to $186 million and operating cash flow through the first three quarters increased 74% to $763 million. We paid our 376th consecutive quarterly dividend effective August 15th at an annual rate of $1.04 per share. This completes the 94th consecutive year of uninterrupted dividend payments to our shareholders. Capital expenditures in the third quarter were $61 million compared to $54 million last year. The fiscal 2022 target for capital expenditures is unchanged at $310 million. We are benefiting from new production capacity we have added to our system over the past year and remain on track to open new capacity for SPAM in the first half of fiscal 2023. Remaining investment grade is a top priority for the company. Since acquiring Planter's business last year, we have grown our cash position and EBITDA. On a net basis, we're now well within the stated goal of 1.5 to 2 times EBITDA by 2023. Turning to our segment results for the quarter, refrigerated foods volume declined 18% and organic volume decreased 19% compared to last year. As referenced earlier, this anticipated decline in volume was primarily due to lower commodity sales resulting from the company's new pork supply agreement. Sales increased 2% and organic sales increased 1%. Retail products such as Applegate natural and organic meats, Hormel gatherings party trays, Hormel natural choice sliced meats, Hormel square table entrees, and Lloyd's BBQ products grew volume in sales for the quarter, while the food service businesses delivered another excellent quarter. Refrigerated foods' segment profit increased 16%, driven by strong results from the value-added businesses, more than offsetting higher operational and logistics costs and lower commodity profitability. Gross to product volume increased 15%, and sales increased 25%, led by strong demand across the nut butters, Mexican and simple meals portfolios, and the addition of the planters business. Organic volume increased 8%, and organic sales increased 13%. Organic sales gains were led by products such as Skippy Spreads, Holy Guacamole, Hormel Chili, Dinty Moore Beef Stew, and Mary Kitchen Hash. Segment profit declined 5% due to the impact from continued inflationary pressures and lower results from Megamex. Then your turkey store delivered another outstanding quarter despite challenges related to HPAI. Volume and sales declines were less than expected, and segment profit increased by more than $30 million due to higher commodity prices and food service sales. For the international and other segments, volume was down 11%, and organic volume declined 12%. Net sales declined 5%, and organic sales fell 6%. Higher global sales of spam luncheon meat and improved results in Brazil did not overcome an overall decline in export sales and lower sales in China. Export volumes declined because of current export logistics challenge and lower commodity sales due to the company's new pork supply agreement. Sales in China was negatively impacted by COVID-related restrictions and temporary planned shutdowns. Segment profit declined 9% as growth in China did not offset the impact of lower export sales. We have revised our full year fiscal 2022 sales and earnings guidance ranges. Consolidated net sales are expected to exceed our previous expectations benefiting from continued top-line strength and pricing actions implemented across the Grocer Products portfolio at the start of the quarter. We project elasticities to remain below historical levels. From a segment perspective, we anticipate profit growth from the Genio Turkey store and international and other segments and anticipate declines for refrigerated foods and grocery products. As a reminder, all segments benefited from an additional week of sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Genuine Turkey Store remains on pace to exceed profit expectations for the year with significant profit growth in the fourth quarter. Sales volumes are projected to decline approximately 30% in the fourth quarter due to continued supply gaps in its vertically integrated supply chain and whole bird sales pulled forward into the third quarter. Further, with the positive cases identified earlier this week in our supply chain, we expect the impact from HPAI to reduce production volume in our turkey facilities through at least the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. The international and other segments anticipate growth in the fourth quarter driven by branded exports and improved profitability in China. Persistent shipping interruptions pose a risk to export sales and profit growth, while additional covert-related restrictions in China could pressure in-country results. Refrigerated food expects continued trends in the food service businesses and strong demand for its retail products. Profits will be pressured by higher raw material and operational and logistics costs. Lastly, grocery products expect improved results sequentially due to demand across the business and from pricing actions effective at the beginning of the fourth quarter. As Jim detailed, we continue to battle extreme input cost volatility and inflation during the third quarter and expect this to continue for the balance of the year. Our previous outlook assumed key protein markets to move seasonally lower into the fourth quarter. Given that prices on key inputs remained elevated for the majority of August, we are managing through higher than expected inventory costs to begin the quarter. We have seen some relief in these key markets over the past week, which, if sustained, would benefit margins in the back half of the fourth quarter. Lower industrial-wide turkey supplies are expected to keep prices higher near term. Breast meat prices set a record in the third quarter and have yet to moderate. Our team has done an exceptional job managing through disruptions caused by HPAI. We continue to see increased hiring and applicants low at our production facilities. Inefficiencies and elevated production costs related to newer team members, turnover, absenteeism, and overtime have affected operations but should ease over time. Investments in value-added capacity are paying off strategically, including our pepperoni expansion in Omaha, new bacon lines at the Austin facility, and the addition of co-manufacturing partners to support multiple product lines. We expect freight and warehousing costs for the domestic and international businesses to remain elevated, and our One Supply Chain team is actively looking for ways to drive efficiencies and control costs. In closing, I am excited for the next step in our evolution as a global branded food company, the Go Forward Initiative. This will create greater focus on our six strategic priorities, better align our business to the needs of our customers, consumers, and operators, and position us well to drive sustainable long-term growth and shareholder values. At this time, I'll turn the call over to the operator for the question and answer portion of the call.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, I'll begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your touchtone telephones. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset prior to pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Once again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. Our first question today comes from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead with your question.
spk10
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to start with a longer-term question. I'm guessing this may have to wait until next week, but with your Go Forward initiative, which segments do you think will see the greatest impact from the structure change?
Eastern
Yeah, good morning, Rupesh. So obviously the biggest impact is going to happen in our retail segment. And that's really the segment that we're excited about all of them. But as we think about the opportunities for us to really accelerate progress on our six strategic priorities, that's the one that's going to have the biggest impact. So really being able to align the operating model with the strategic initiatives in a bigger way than we ever have before is really going to be exciting. Food service will have some impact as we move some of our affiliated business in there and then also move the Genio food service business in there. It'll strengthen us in certain channels or segments like K through 12. International will be the least impacted of all the three. So really retail, then food service, and then international.
spk10
Okay, great. And then maybe one additional question. I'm not sure if you guys can comment on it. But if you look towards next year, like any early puts and takes on the operating margin line, I'm just trying to get a sense, just given all the moving parts this year, Johnny, you know, some of the cost pressures, whether you think you can actually expand operating margins versus your current guidance for this year.
Eastern
Yeah, I mean, you know, it's early to look into 2023. I mean, you know, as we're thinking about it, you know, so far, we expect that our brands will continue to perform well in face of pricing. You know, we talked about some of the innovation that we'll be able to bring to the marketplace as supply chain improves. We do expect to see some supply chain improvements. We talked about some of the operational challenges that we've had with new labor, turnover, some variances that we hadn't planned for. We know that we've got to get better on that side. So, you know, there's certainly going to be opportunities for us in 2023. Also, recovery in our international segment as we think about, you know, maybe lockdowns not being as frequent in China, exports being able to pick up. And then we do expect, you know, a benefit from our go-forward initiative as we think about how we can really accelerate the progress on our six priorities.
Michael
Great. Thank you. I'll pass it along. And our next question comes from Ben Thier from Barclays.
Operator
Please go ahead with your question.
Ben
Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I actually wanted to elaborate a little bit and you alluded to it on the sensitivity. So I want to understand if you could share a few more details in between the volume performance versus the pricing performance because it really feels pricing was a big driver during the quarter. volume down. I get it in refrigerated just because of the change in the business model. But then obviously, if we put it all together, it feels like volume was a little more under pressure. Would you assign this to certain elasticities because of the pricing actions? And how do you think you're going to be able to recover some of the volume over time if we look into fiscal 23?
Eastern
Yeah, I mean, as we think about the business, Ben, you know, clearly really pleased with the overall health of the business, the performance in the quarter. You know, you touched on it. We knew we were going to have some refrigerated volume declines. You know, Genio clearly had volume declines tied to HPAI. You know, our grocery products business has strong volume growth. As you dig into some of the specific brands and categories, I would say probably the most softness we had was in the area of bacon, and a lot of that would be tied to the belly market and some of the escalated pricing that we saw throughout the quarter. Okay.
Ben
Perfect. And then just a quick follow-up, if I may, on the new operating model, and obviously we can explore this more in detail next week. But if we kind of, and you said it about the importance of it, and we've seen obviously retail performing year-to-date relatively strong, up 12%, but food service even more. Can you give us a little bit of a preview in terms of the distribution of these segments in terms of relevance? It clearly feels like retail is most likely more than 50% of it, and that's why this is the most focus where you're most excited about, correct?
Eastern
Yeah, I mean, obviously retail will be roughly about 60%. You know, we've talked about food service in total being just over 30% and, you know, international high single digits. So, you know, we're excited about all of them. And really, when we talk about retail being the most impacted, it is we are bringing together our retail refrigerated, our grocery products unit, our Genio retail. So you do have the most change occurring there, but we also have the most opportunity to really generate the alignment that we need. And so a perfect example of that, I believe, is when we've talked about entertaining and snacking in a bigger way being a strategic priority for our organization. Historically, we've had pepperoni in refrigerated retail. We've had our gatherings party trays in our deli organization. We've had, of course, now planters in our grocery products organization. And now the ability to bring those together under one pillar and really talk to customers and consumers in a way that we haven't before really excites us for the future.
David
Yeah, and just a quick add there, Ben, you know, as Jim described all of that from a strategic standpoint, if you think about how we go to market as well, what this model actually does, it really just bolsters how we go to market as a company and just bringing that one hormone to bear, and that's truly going to be a strategic advantage for us.
Ben
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow from Bank of Montreal. Please go ahead with your question.
Ken Zaslow
Hey, good morning, guys.
Operator
Good morning.
Ken Zaslow
My first question is, on Skippy, with all the volume that was created there, where did the profit go to? It seemed like there would be a greater association with the increased opportunity created there. Did you guys have co-packers? Was there a shortfall of supply? It just seems like there was a lot of top line, but it didn't really translate to the bottom line.
Eastern
Yeah. Good morning, Ken. There definitely was a benefit from Skippy in the quarter. Really, as we talked about it with the escalation in cost, it's really across the board. We talked about the operational inefficiencies. So even though in aggregate we're at a good place with our total number of employees, those employees are younger, less experienced, and we are seeing that turnover. And then we talked about some of the input costs, so continued escalation. for across the supply chain and then specifically towards the, you know, the end of the quarter as we saw some of the raw materials run up. And so that really is what created that erosion of the benefit from Skippy. But we definitely did see a benefit in the quarter.
Ken Zaslow
Okay. And then my second question is, is when you think about your long-term guidance, look, the last couple of years, you really haven't been within that. What is it that changes, and is 2023, 2024 back into that long-term guidance range, or is it going to still take time to reestablish your growth algorithm on a more consistent basis? How do you think about that?
Eastern
Yeah, we're very positive about the business. We know that the brands are strong, the business is strong. We continue to fight the escalation in costs. We know that we have work to do on the operational front. We talked about our need to really capture the synergies and the value in our expanded logistics model. We've taken appropriate pricing. We are starting to see some relief on input costs here in the fourth quarter. that should translate into 2023. We've got back to pricing the full year impact of some of the pricing that we've put in place. I think for us, it is a better internal supply chain performance. That'll be a key driver for us. We do expect brands to continue to perform well. And so we're confident in our ability to deliver our long-term growth algorithm. We do have some work to do, but we're confident that we can get it done.
David
And just to add to that, we also are currently underway executing the automation and really optimizing in different fronts from an operations standpoint. So that should certainly add to us being successful at executing on our long-term goals as well.
Michael
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Tom Palmer from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Tom Palmer
Good morning, and thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the grocery product side, is the pricing that you've taken enough to offset the inflation that you're facing? Do you need additional rounds of pricing to address the still mounting inflation? Or maybe given your view that costs ease
Eastern
added rounds of pricing maybe not planned at this point just trying to understand that that dynamic and what kind of causes the inflection in grocery yeah thanks Tom you know obviously we're pleased with the strong organic top-line growth you know the strong demand for the grocery products portfolio and I You described the cost and pricing scenario very well. With the relief that we've recently seen from some of the key inputs, we don't believe that additional pricing is going to be necessary, that the pricing that is now going into effect in Q4 will be sufficient. But we did have pressure at the end of Q3 and in the early part of Q4 because of those elevated markets.
Tom Palmer
Understood. Thank you. And then maybe ask another question on the 4Q outlook. So it sounds like the third quarter overall was pretty consistent with what you had talked about a quarter ago. So it would seem that... Essentially the guidance cut was mainly for reduced expectations around the fourth quarter. From the comments today, it sounds like the kind of greatest incremental pressure was on refrigerated food. Is that accurate? And then to what extent do these easing costs that you mentioned in the last week, are they factored into the guidance range?
Eastern
It's a couple of things. The refrigerated foods group is impacted by the elevated markets as well. As we think about the fourth quarter, there's always going to be the puts and takes. We've obviously seen a reoccurrence of HPAI with JOTS. watching to see how that plays out throughout the quarter from an upside potential or is there some risk. Really understanding what will happen with the consumer with this last round, most recent round of GP pricing. And then the other part that is on our radar is although we've seen this market relief, we've also seen just an incredible amount of market volatility throughout the year. And so we've seen significant moves up and down. And so while we're in a better position today, we'll be watching that closely because we know how quickly that can change.
Michael
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Yep. Our next question comes from Robert Moscow from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Moscow
Hi. A couple of questions. In the grocery division, I'm now forecasting, based on your guidance, I think a decline in profits for the year of about $20 million, $30 million. And that's despite having seven months incremental of the planter's acquisition. So I guess I'd like to know, is planter's weaker than you thought i didn't hear you you uh uh reiterate planters as a double accretion uh number today maybe maybe that's just uh it's still there but and if it's not that you know what is it is it uh which of the other brands and then a follow-up please yeah uh rob so so a couple of things your your assessment of the gp division is is correct um
Eastern
you know, that will be down for the full year. When we think about planters, although we probably weren't as intentional, the sales of, you know, we're on track for the sales guidance that we've provided in line with our billion-dollar guide. Our earnings continue to be at the high end of that accretion model. And really, for us, the long-term strategy is intact, right? As we think about this being an important part of our entertaining and stacking platform, the work that we're doing in C-Stores, the business is still performing the way we want it. There's always opportunities within categories, but overall the business is well in line with our expectations. And really what it is, It's the inflation that we've experienced in grocery products. And so we've had significant packaging inflation. You know, we've taken incremental pricing along the way. This most recent round of pricing should be very positive and favorable as we head into 2023. Okay.
Robert Moscow
Maybe a follow-up then. You know, when you talked about transitioning to a one supply chain model, it sounded like a great idea and uh it consolidated a lot of the information consolidated a lot of the uh uh i guess the decision making and yet you know here we are in a year where your your warehousing costs are higher than you thought your your freight is and you're having you know still you know lingering labor issues and i guess i have to ask did this transition Did it exacerbate any issues? Did it make any of these issues incrementally easier? Why didn't the transition help prevent a lot of these situations?
Eastern
Great question, Rob. As I sit here, I can't imagine us having gone through what we've gone through over the last several years without having our one supply chain in place. Everything you described to have one purview of the supply chain has really helped us throughout COVID and some of these labor challenges. You know, we're not alone in what's happening. You know, you can go across industry and the conversation about turnover and these manufacturing variances. I mean, they're everywhere. We have work to do. And so we do. You know, we're getting people through the door. We're getting people hired. There's work to do in terms of training and retaining those people so that we do, over time, develop that experience. That is a problem today. That's not a one supply chain issue. That's a broad-based issue. You know, and I think when we think about other challenges, you know, we continue to see countless upstream challenges from our suppliers. So industry-wide issues persist, and I'll finish where I started in that I just can't imagine us having gone through what we went through the last several years without having our one supply chain in place.
Robert Moscow
Got it.
Michael
Thank you. Yep.
Operator
Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead with your question.
Michael Lavery
Good morning. Thank you. I just wanted to come back to looking ahead a bit into fiscal 23 and maybe specifically, can you give a sense of how much of your commodity exposure is already locked in or hedged and how that might compare to what's typical?
David
So, we're currently for the moment for 2022. have hedged our grains at around 80% for the year, and we have already started hedging and have actually locked in our hedge for 2023, albeit at an elevated level, given where grain sits today. So that's, of course, another challenge, and we're not 100% hedged, so we still have a little bit of exposure to the market and working through as we think about other areas as well, you know, leaning into forward contracts where we can, where we are not able to really execute any hedges in those areas.
Michael Lavery
So for this time of the year relative to the following fiscal year, are you less or more hedged than normal?
David
We're consistent with where we're normally sitting at this stage.
Michael Lavery
Okay. And just back to Jenny Oh, you touched on the volume impact that'll run at least through 1Q23. Can you give a sense of the magnitude there? Obviously, third and fourth quarter this year, at least what you reported and expect, is pretty different in terms of the magnitude of the impact on volume. What would it look like going forward?
David
Going forward, I think it depends on what happens with HPAI, certainly. For this year, for the third quarter, our impact was about 20% less volume. Going into the fourth, we'll be off 30% volume for the fourth quarter. And, you know, our expectation is as we go into the first quarter of next year, if nothing else happened from an HPAI standpoint, we should be rebuilding our supply there and be in a good spot.
Michael Lavery
So I think you had mentioned, though, just a recent case or, you know, something that would add some pressure on 1Q. Would the volume pressure there be more like more similar to 4Q or Do you expect it to be improving?
David
Yeah, we don't expect that volume pressure. So we actually, and you're exactly right. I mean, we've had a couple of situations here within the last few days, but these were really young birds. And so it is an impact that doesn't impact Q4 at all and actually pushes into the first quarter of next year, but really will be immaterial to the quarter.
Eastern
Yeah. So, Michael, if we stay where we are today, we don't expect a material impact in Q1. As this always is, it's a developing situation, and so we'll be watching it closely. But at this point, it's really too early to tell what the impact for Q1 would be.
Michael
Okay, great. Thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stevens. Please go ahead with your question.
Ben Bienvenu
Hey, guys. Jim Solera on for Ben. I wanted to drill down a little bit more on some of the labor challenges. Is it that you're seeing more acute labor markets in the areas that you operate your facilities and maybe as the economy weakens? that loosens up a little bit and gives you an opportunity to hire more people? Or is it just, you know, pure wage issue or flexibility? You know, what are some of the specific challenges that are preventing getting those under control?
Eastern
Yeah, so the issue of hiring, getting people through the door is not a problem, right? So we're getting people hired. What we are seeing is that they're not staying. that there is higher than normal turnover. There's significant absenteeism. And we do think that's partly driven by the labor market that we've had, the ability to find many jobs elsewhere. So to your point, as the labor market potentially tightens, does that lead to lower turnover the ability to keep people longer and then build that experience and that training absolutely so it's not getting people hired it's not a labor rate it is just keeping the turnover down so that we can build the experience within our facility okay and as you expand
Ben Bienvenu
automation through your plants what's the time frame of how long it'll take to get those equipment get that equipment in the plants and up and running to supplement maybe some of the necessity for those higher term labor positions yeah so i mean that's going to vary right so we will we'll continue to always evolve and look for opportunities to take right take
David
cost out of the plan. So there isn't really any point in time I'd say that we would stop doing that. So it really is a continuing improvement in our mind.
Ben Bienvenu
Okay. And then if I could sneak in one quick question on HPAI. Yeah, I know there's been a couple cases pop up here more recently, despite the weather getting warmer. Do you guys have anything in maybe your contingency plan or if anything you can do to prepare for the possibility of this popping back up as the year progresses?
Eastern
Yeah, I mean, we've, we've obviously done a lot of work, you know, since you go back to 2015, you know, the biosecurity efforts, the investments that we've made on our farms that have been have been substantial. So we've, we've worked really hard, but clearly, you know, they're, that this is still an issue. To your point, the new development is historically warm weather or heat has really tamped this down. But you're starting to see cases in California where temperatures are higher. and then you know just making sure again that we've we've got the continued emphasis and the continued focus on training with our team members uh that we keep this top of mind so that that we are able to minimize the effect okay great thanks guys our next question comes from peter galbo from bank of america please go ahead with your question
spk09
Hey, guys. Good morning. I'll keep it pretty quick. Jim, just in the context of going back to the new operating model, I think you're going to stand up a brand, a new brand center. Just curious, are there incremental costs or restructuring actions that will come in with the resegmentation and, I guess, streamlining everything? I know you've talked about some of the synergies you expect to get, but just any of the upfront costs that we should think about?
Eastern
Yeah, nothing really significant or material. Peter, you know, we're moving some people around in chairs, focusing their expertise in areas that we need some extra emphasis. So as we think about, you know, brand fuel, which is that center of excellence, to really support all of our strategic pillars and brands in a bigger way, you know, that will consist of our digital experience group. which has been a huge benefit to our organization. We'll continue to strengthen that area. You know, making sure that our insights group is being fully utilized across the entire organization. So making a few investments there, continued our good work on innovation, and having that even more ingrained with the brand and the strategic pillars So, you know, nothing really material as much as it is moving some people in chairs and then making sure, of course, that we've got all the right financial planning and analysis to support the business in a bigger way. But really, you know, nothing from a cost perspective that we're thinking about.
David
Okay. Yeah, the other piece I'll add there, I mean, really fundamentally what it has done for us or what it will do is just to bring the synergistic brain power into one place to be able to support the business and just take away some of the silos in which we're working today and also bringing jobs as well into play as we integrate them into the organization as part of the transformation.
spk09
Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then, Jim, I just want to go back to your comments around what I'm assuming mostly pertain to the hog markets. Obviously, you've seen a little bit of relief here. Your commentary suggested over time you're expecting some relief. But just as we think out 12 to 18 months, just what are you tracking? What are you seeing that's suggesting to you maybe that you'll get some relief on the protein side? Just given some of the USDA forecasts are maybe for less protein availability next year as opposed to more, and I would think that would keep prices higher. But I'm just curious if there's anything that you're seeing that we should be aware of.
Eastern
Yeah, I think the biggest thing there, Peter, is the volatility that we continue to see. So in terms of the absolute supply, I mean, our view is consistent with what everybody else is seeing. We're obviously going to be making some forecasts that are probably tied more to slightly higher than historical averages. But really, the difference in all of this is that volatility or when some of these markets are staying elevated longer than they historically have, like we've just seen here at the end of Q3 and, for us, the first period of Q4. That's where we really start to experience some of that compression. So when you've got the elevation that's higher, longer, and then some of the volatility that has been persistent throughout the year.
Michael
And our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.
Operator
Please go ahead with your question. Yes, thanks. Good morning.
Adam
A lot of ground's been covered, but I'm hoping maybe, Jim, to get your view on trade and promotional spending here i mean you talked about the specific advertising dollars that are in sgna that are up but the the trade and promote the trade spend that would be kind of above the revenue line um kind of any color on what that looks like today relative to maybe pre-coveted and do you think that's going to have to be a bigger lever to pull over the next um over the next 12 to 18 months to combat maybe more risk of consumer price elasticity and retailers that might be a bit more wary of pricing actions.
Eastern
Yeah, I think, you know, Adam, as supply continues to improve and, you know, we talked about still having a number of categories where demand is outstripping supply, but as supply continues, to improve, you know, we do expect that to be, you know, a lever that we've, you know, historically we've always used it. We'll continue to use that in conjunction with the advertising dollars that we need to build the brand equity and build that connection with the consumer. So, yeah, we do expect to see that to continue to be an integral part of our business going forward. know and as we think about our updated operating model and we start to bring these retail businesses together you know that's also going to be a benefit for us as we'll have again a bigger purview of all the retail businesses in terms of how we're interacting with customers and consumers okay and then just quickly in food service um any color you could provide maybe by
Adam
some of the different channels or verticals within food service between quick service, institutional. You guys have a pretty broad kind of customer set there and just any color on differences and trends between them would be helpful.
Eastern
Yeah, you know, not at this point, Adam. I mean, we're seeing continued strength across all of the different channels where we compete. and would say that a big driver of that, we've talked about some of our labor issues. So many food service operators are facing those same labor issues, so they're forced to think differently about how they're going to be able to provide products. And we talked a lot about the value-added offerings that we have in our food service portfolio, really being able to help those operators move the labor that they do have from back of the house to front of the house. And we continue to see that play out. You know, we have seen a strong back-to-school season, not only with our GENEO K through 12 business, but with the work that the Hormel side does on the colleges and universities. So, again, really, really strong broad-based food service business.
Adam
Okay. I appreciate that, Collin. Thank you. Yep.
Operator
And, ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Jim Snee for any closing remarks.
Eastern
Yes, thank you. I want to thank all of you for joining us today. You know, as we've talked about this morning, our business remains incredibly healthy, even as we continue to navigate some of the most difficult operating conditions in our company's 130-year history. Our team is focused on a strong finish to 2022, but we're also incredibly excited about our future with the implementation of our Go Forward initiative to update and better align our operating model against our strategic initiatives. This is a positive and exciting time for Hormel Foods. Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day weekend.
Operator
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines.
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