Installed Building Products, Inc.

Greetings and welcome to Installed Building Products Fiscal 2020 Fourth Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jason Neiswanger. Thank you. You may begin.

Good morning, and welcome to Installed Building Products' fourth quarter 2020 conference call. Earlier today, we issued a press release on our financial results for the fourth quarter, which can be found in the investor relations section on our website. On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements include statements with respect to the housing market and the commercial market, industry conditions and trends, our financial and business model, payments of a quarterly cash dividend, the possibility of an annual variable dividend in 2022, our stock repurchase program, our efforts to manage material inflation, our ability to increase selling prices, the demand for our services and product offerings, the impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on our business and end markets, expansion of our national footprint, products and end markets, our expectations for our end markets, including our large commercial business and multifamily, our ability to strengthen our market position, our ability to pursue and integrate value-enhancing acquisitions in the expected amount of acquired revenue, our diversification efforts, our growth rates and ability to improve sales and profitability, the impact of COVID-19 crisis on our financial results, and expectations for demand for our services and our earnings in 2021. Forward-looking statements may generally be defined by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, expect, intend, plan, and will, or in each case their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Any forward-looking statement made by management during this call is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including without limitation the duration, effect, and severity of the COVID-19 crisis, the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis on our business and financial results, the economy, and the markets we serve, general economic and industry conditions, the material price environment, the timing of increases in our selling prices, the risk that the company may reduce, suspend, or eliminate dividend payments in the future, and the factors discussed in the risk factors section of the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, as the same may be updated from time to time in subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statement made by management on this call speaks only as of the date hereof. New risks and uncertainties come up from time to time, and it is impossible for the company to predict these events or their effect. The company has no obligation and does not intend to update any forward-looking statements after the date hereof, except as required by federal securities laws. In addition, management uses certain non-GAAP performance measures on this call, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, and adjusted net income per diluted share, adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross profit margin, and adjusted selling and administrative expense. You can find a reconciliation of such measures to their nearest GAAP equivalent in the company's earnings release and additional reconciliation for adjusted EBITDA for earlier fiscal years in our investor presentation, which are available on our website. This morning's conference call is hosted by Jeff Edwards, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Miller, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

Thanks, Jason, and good morning to everyone joining us on today's call. As usual, I will start the call with some highlights on the quarter and then turn the call over to Michael Miller, IBP's CFO, who will discuss our results and capital position in more detail before we take your questions. IBP produced another strong year of record operating and financial performance. For 2020, revenue increased 9.4% to a record $1.7 billion, Earnings increased 43.4% to a record $3.27 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA increased 24.8% to a record $245.6 million. I am proud and humbled by our performance as we achieved these record results despite the unprecedented effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which demonstrates the hard work, dedication, and commitment of our nearly 9,000 team members nationwide. Throughout 2020, we maintained our commitment to quality and dedication to providing our customers unparalleled service while protecting the health, safety, and well-being of our employees, customers, partners, and communities. The most important part of our business is the men and women working in our locations throughout the U.S. We strive to provide an environment where people want to work and succeed, focusing our resources on attracting, retaining, and developing talent. I'm pleased to report that we've continued to maintain employee turnover well below industry averages, a direct result of the employee programs we've introduced since 2017 and the culture we value. Our record results also demonstrate the success and the resiliency of our proven business model, our strong position within compelling geographies and end markets, the strength of our balance sheet and capital position, and the experience of our senior leadership team. In addition, since our IPO in 2014, the compound annual growth rates of revenue, net income from continuing operations, and adjusted EBITDA have grown at 21%, 38%, and 33%, respectively. Our consistently strong performance is encouraging, and we believe we are well positioned for the future as we continue to focus on creating sustainable value for our shareholders. Before discussing our operating performance and outlook in more detail, I want to review this week's announcement outlining our capital allocation priorities. The strong free cash flow of our business model and our strong balance sheet provide us with considerable flexibility to pursue our growth-oriented acquisition strategy while also returning capital to shareholders and supporting the long-term capital needs of our business. As a result, I am pleased to announce IBP's Board of Directors approved the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend. The first quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share is payable on March 31st, 2021 to shareholders of record on March 15th, 2021. In addition to the quarterly cash dividend, the Board of Directors will consider an annual variable dividend to be paid during the first quarter of each year commencing in 2022. The variable dividend will be determined based on the cash flow generated by operations with consideration for planned and expected cash obligations for acquisitions and other factors as determined by the Board. The Board of Directors has also increased the existing share repurchase program to $100 million and extended the program to March 1, 2022. It is important to note we will continue to prioritize capital investments on profitable growth through our proven acquisition strategy. Acquisitions typically contribute to profitability immediately and generate strong returns on investment. In addition, we have been able to self-fund our acquisition strategy through IVP's strong free cash flow while simultaneously strengthening our balance sheet. We believe we can support these capital priorities while targeting a net debt leverage ratio under two times trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. As you can see, we have come a long way since our IPO, and I'm extremely pleased with our ability to support our growth plan while simultaneously returning capital to our shareholders. With this update, let's review 2020 performance and favorable outlook in more detail. Looking at our end markets, 2020 was another strong year of residential, multifamily, and commercial growth across many of our geographies despite the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. Total residential completions in the United States increased 2.5% in 2020, which included a nine-tenths of 1% increase in single-family completions. Single-family housing demand continues to benefit from low mortgage rates and favorable demographics have driven an increase in demand for entry-level housing. In response, homebuilders' land positions improved throughout the year, and many adjusted their communities to develop more affordably-priced entry-level homes. We believe these trends will continue, supporting further growth as the industry approaches stabilization in the years to come. In the 2020 fourth quarter, our model family revenue increased approximately 34% compared to the prior year quarter and increased nearly 38% over the full 2019. We continue to perform well in the model family end market as a direct result of our enhanced sales strategy as we are growing the end market in locations that had previously been over indexed to single family construction. As expected, 2020 also benefited from a pricing environment more in line with historical trends. For the year, our price mix improved 2.8%, and on a two-year stack basis, price mix was up over 8%. The 4.5% decline in fourth quarter price mix was not a result of pricing deflation, but reflects a mixed shift in the single-family end market. During the fourth quarter, we experienced a higher volume of sales to production builders compared to last year, and overall same branch volume was up 7%. This shift within the single-family end market impacted price mix as the average insulation selling price for entry-level production builder jobs is typically lower than a move-up or custom home. Given consumer demand for entry-level homes, we believe this trend in mix may continue over the near term. Even with the decline in fourth quarter price mix, fourth quarter gross margin increased 70 basis points, as profitability benefited from higher volumes, increased efficiencies, and the contribution from sales of complementary building products. Early into 2021, we are experiencing inflation in many of the products we install. The January 2021 price increase for fiberglass insulation materials was in line with our expectations and was followed with another price increase effective in April of 2021. While the timing of the fiberglass increase is similar to what the industry experienced in 2018, the current housing demand environment is considerably different. With our availability of labor and our strong position with our customers and suppliers, we believe we are well positioned to navigate the inflationary environment in 2021. Furthermore, we believe single-family industry dynamics remain strong and support the continued demand for our services. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, single-family starts in the fourth quarter were up over 12%, and single-family homes under construction increased to 590,000 units, the highest level since November of 2007. We also believe we are well positioned for continued multifamily growth as a result of our suburban market focus and success of our expanding multifamily sales strategy. COVID-related safety protocols on large commercial construction sites affected our commercial operations throughout the year. Despite these unique challenges, Large commercial sales growth increased 15.3% for the year, and on a same branch basis increased 2.8%. Our total pipeline and bid activity within the large commercial market has improved over the past three months, and based on the long lead time nature of our project, we believe this trend will benefit our large commercial end market in the second half of 2021. We also believe our solid pipeline and growing presence within the large commercial end market will help us navigate any near-term softness in the commercial market. Long-term fundamentals are expected to remain intact, and diversifying our end market exposure continues to be an important component of our growth strategy. In addition, we continue to pursue additional opportunistic commercial acquisitions that increase our scale and competitiveness. 2020 was another strong year of acquisition growth, and we completed nine acquisitions representing over $107 million of annual revenues. During the fourth quarter alone, we completed four acquisitions representing nearly $50 million of annual revenues. Acquisitions included a Georgia-based installer of complimentary building products to residential and multifamily customers, a Virginia-based installer of insulation services to residential customers, a Washington-based provider of insulation, waterproofing, and fire-stopping installation services to commercial and multifamily customers. and a Washington-based installer of specialty coatings for fire protection, insulation, and acoustics in commercial and industrial applications. Our acquisition pipeline remains robust, and we continue to actively pursue acquisitions of well-run residential, multifamily, and commercial installers that support our geographic, end-product, and end-market diversification strategies. Our acquisition strategy is supported by our solid and flexible capital structure and we are targeting approximately $100 million of acquired revenue in 2021. We may exceed this target depending on the timing of acquisitions within our large and growing pipeline. Before I turn the call over to Michael, I want to provide additional information on our expectations for 2021 in our longer-term outlook, which was included in our investor deck and is available on the investor relations section of our website. We believe most of our markets will remain strong in 2021 and we expect 2021 will be another good year of growth and profitability for IVP despite the continued effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For 2021, we expect single family completions to increase in the mid to high single digit range. The increased lag between starts and completions combined with the dramatically increased order volumes from our builder customers are expected to continue throughout the year, which may positively impact the seasonal trends in our business that we historically encounter. We believe our multifamily end markets will remain strong during 2021, and while near-term demand remains uncertain within the commercial end market, we expect a rebound to occur in the second half of the year. Gross margins are anticipated to remain favorable despite the impacts of material inflation and higher mix of sales to entry-level single-family homes. We continue to proactively manage our expenses anticipate higher sales will continue to leverage administrative expenses throughout the year. As a result, we believe 2021 will be another strong year of profitable growth with annual adjusted EBITDA margins expected to be in line with our long-term mid-teens expectations. So to conclude my prepared remarks, I am extremely pleased with how our team has responded to the unique challenges that have occurred throughout the year. Our continued success reflects the power of our business model, the experience of our management team, the longstanding customer relationships we have developed, and the strength of our balance sheet in operating cash flow. We are off to a strong start to the year, and 2021 is expected to be another great year for IBP. As always, I'd like to thank all those in the field who are hard at work every day representing IBP and serving our customers. On behalf of the entire leadership team, we recognize your efforts, and I want to personally thank you for your dedication. With this overview, I'd like to turn the call over to Michael to provide more details on our fourth quarter results.

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Net sales for the fourth quarter increased to a quarterly record of $441.5 million compared to $401.2 million for the same period last year. The 10% year-over-year improvement in sales was mainly driven by a higher volume of customer jobs completed during the quarter, growth in other complementary products, and the contribution from our recent acquisitions. On the same branch basis, net revenue improved 2.8% from the prior year quarter. Multi-family sales increased 33.6%, contributing to an 11.3% increase in total residential sales during the fourth quarter. Sales in our large commercial construction business increased 40.4%, and on the same branch basis, increased 6.4%. It is important to note that sales from our large commercial construction business are not included in the volume and price metric price mix metrics we disclosed. Profitability remained very strong during the quarter. Adjusted gross profit margin was 30.6% for the 2020 fourth quarter. The 70 basis point increase over the prior year period primarily reflects the benefits of our product diversification strategies and a higher volume of completed jobs. Administrative expenses as a percent of fourth quarter sales were 13.7%. an 80 basis point improvement from the prior year period. Adjusted SG&A as a percent of fourth quarter sales improved 80 basis points from the prior year period and improved 20 basis points from the 2020 third quarter. The improvements in SG&A are primarily due to higher sales, leveraging expenses, and the benefits of gross profit improvement over the prior year quarter. On a GAAP basis, our fourth quarter net income increased 45 percent from the prior year quarter to $27.8 million, or $0.94 per diluted share. Our adjusted net income improved 32.5 percent to $36.6 million, or $1.23 per diluted share, compared to $27.6 million, or $0.92 per diluted share, in the prior year quarter. During the 2024 quarter, we recorded $8.2 million of amortization expense, compared to $6.4 million for the same period last year. as a result of our acquisition strategy. This non-cash adjustment impacts that income, which is why we continue to believe that adjusted EBITDA is the most useful measure of profitability. Based on our acquisitions completed to date, we expect first quarter 2021 amortization expense of approximately $8.2 million and full year 2021 expense of approximately $32.4 million. This figure will, of course, change with any subsequent acquisitions. For the 2020 fourth quarter, our effective tax rate was approximately 25.2%, and we continue to expect a full year effective tax rate of 25 to 27% for 2021. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2020 improved to a record $67.1 million, representing an increase of 20.7% from 55.6 million in the prior year. Same branch, incremental adjusted EBITDA margins were 55.9% for the fourth quarter as a result of our higher sales and operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of net revenue increased 130 basis points from the prior year period to 15.2%. Now let's look at our liquidity, balance sheet, and capital requirements in more detail. Our business model continues to generate strong operating cash flows. With the 12 months ended December 31st, 2020, We generated $180.8 million in cash flow from operations compared to $123.1 million in the prior year period, an increase of 46.9%. Our asset-light business model does not require a significant amount of capital expenditures, and our primary capital requirement is to fund working capital needs. On December 31, 2020, we had $155.9 million in working capital, excluding $231.5 million of cash and cash equivalents. Capital expenditures at December 31st, 2020 were $33.6 million, while total incurred finance leases were $1 million. Capital expenditures and finance capital leases as a percent of revenue were 2.1% at December 31st, 2020, compared to 3.5% at December 31st, 2019. At December 31st, 2020, we had total cash and short-term investments of $231.5 million compared to $215.9 million at December 31, 2019. Total debt at December 31, 2020 was $565.3 million compared to $569.2 million at December 31, 2019. Considering cash and short-term investments at December 31, 2020, Our net total debt was approximately $334 million compared to $353 million at December 31st, 2019. At December 31st, 2020, we had a net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.4 times and well within our stated expectation of maintaining a leverage ratio of less than two times. Looking at our capital allocation priorities in more detail, we continue to prioritize profitable growth through our proven strategy of acquiring well-run installers of insulation and complementary building products. During 2020, we invested over $76 million in acquisitions compared to operating cash flow of nearly $181 million. As a result of the cash generation strength of our operations, IBP's Board of Directors approved the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend. The first quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share is payable on March 31st, 2021 to stockholders of record on March 15th, 2021. In addition to the quarterly cash dividend, the Board of Directors will consider an annual variable dividend to be paid during the first quarter of each year commencing in 2022. The variable dividend will be determined based on the cash flow generated by operations with consideration for planned and expected cash obligations for acquisitions and other factors as determined by the Board. This week, IVP's Board of Directors also increased and extended our stock repurchase program, effective as of February 26, 2021, pursuant to which we may repurchase up to $100 million of our outstanding common stock. The program will remain in effect until March 1, 2022, and less extended by the Board of Directors. The Board previously approved a stock repurchase program effective as of November 6, 2018, for up to $100 million of the company's outstanding common stock, and there was $26.7 million remaining availability. Under this prior authorization, IVP repurchased $33.9 million of its common stock for the year ended December 31, 2020, which included $18.2 million during the fourth quarter. We continue to believe we have considerable financial flexibility as we have nothing drawn on our $200 million revolving line of credit, a strong cash position, dagger debt maturities, and limited financial covenants. In addition, with no significant debt maturities until 2025 and strong liquidity, we have considerable financial resources to withstand the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. while investing in our long-term growth opportunities. With that, I will now turn the call back to Jeff for closing remarks.

Thanks, Michael. I'd like to conclude our prepared remarks by once again thanking IBP employees for their hard work, dedication, and commitment to our company during this very challenging period. Our success over the years, and more recently, wouldn't be possible if it wasn't for you, and our thanks goes out to you for a tough job always done well. Operator, let's open up the call for questions.

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. We ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start out just on the outlook and, I guess, more on the macro side, but something that would be guiding your expectations, too, with the mid-single-digit, high-single-digit completions, you know, certainly appreciate that there are some constraints in the market, whether it's product availability in some cases or labor. But given the trends in kind of units under construction, builder backlogs, from a lagged completion standpoint or lagged start standpoint, that still seems a bit low. So can you just walk us through kind of puts and takes around your, you know, what's behind those assumptions there on the completions growth and how to think about your volume relative to that.

Sure, Mike. This is Michael Miller. Good morning. You know, as we've said in previous calls, you know, we believe that the building products, the construction industry, on a macro level, not on an individual builder basis, but on a macro level really has the ability to grow sort of, given where we are at the current levels, at a high single-digit rate from a completions perspective. We said that, I think, the last couple of quarterly calls, and we still feel that's the case. I mean, clearly there has been an unprecedented extension of the backlog and the cycle times to build a new home. You know, right now, as Jeff mentioned in his prepared remarks, you know, authorized but not started single-family homes or equivalent to where they were back in 2007. So we're really at an unprecedented point, quite frankly, in the cycle. But what it does is it gives us an extreme level of confidence around the ability of us to perform over the next couple of years because we think constructively that we are in a multi-year, you know, situation where we're going to continue to work through this very heavy backlog. We think it's providing an extremely constructive environment for us. We have a lot of confidence around the business.

We feel great about our position. Let's just say that it is higher than high single digits. We're not worried about our ability to perform at a higher level than that. We're in great shape on our labor As I mentioned, again, turnover has remained well below industry averages. Productivity is great. So if, in fact, the trades that come before us are able to push more houses through the pipeline or grow faster than what we believe to be the case, then we'll be prepared to do the work.

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we've talked a lot about this before, Mike, is that we're not the bottleneck. The bottleneck are the trades that come before us.

Yeah, okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you. My second question is related to price mix and how to think through the moving pieces. And I guess not to put words in your mouth, but it does sound like you're fairly supportive of the trajectory of price increases that have been announced given the dynamics in terms of demand and supply, but then you've got this potential for what at least in 4Q is a pretty meaningful mixed headwind. So when you kind of layer in kind of cumulative pricing versus some of the mixed headwinds we should be contemplating, any ballpark on just kind of magnitude of how we should be thinking about all-in price mix for this year?

Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt that the – particularly our largest customers, the production builders that are building entry-level homes, are seeing a much higher, and you've seen this in the public disclosures from the public builders, right? You know, the heavily weighted entry-level builders are seeing much higher sales growth than other builders are. And, you know, we have very strong relationships with those builders, and we continue to believe that you know, some of the kind of move up and kind of custom homes and the sort of regional and local builders are still playing to some extent a bit of catch up, if you will, with some of the other big production builders. And it's going to take time as we go through the course of the year to get a more historical balance, if you will, from a mixed perspective in terms of, you know, the more even growth coming from, you know, kind of all of our customers, if you will. But certainly we're seeing the trends of the strength of that entry-level market continuing. But – and we've talked a lot about this before. Well, yes, absolutely, it is a lower-priced job because it's a lower-cost house. It does give us very strong volumes, as we demonstrated in the fourth quarter, which then gives us very strong G&A leverage because of the efficiency of doing that work. So – we are extremely confident and very constructive around the strength that we're seeing in that entry-level market and in our market share with those customers that are performing extremely well. Now, it does create noise, if I can use that word, around the price mix, but these price increases that you referred to, I mean, yes, we do think that we are constructive on them, and we've always talked about a rising price environment ends up being constructive for us, and we are supportive of that. And the reality is that there's a lot of demand out there, and in a very tight demand environment, it creates a favorable pricing environment as well. So I think through the course of the year, what you'll see is perhaps some pressure on price mix in the first half of the year that will be abated in the second half of the year, as we continue to get higher selling prices combined with a more even trajectory of sales growth among all of our customers.

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Ken Zimmer with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, gentlemen.

Morning, Ken.

All right. Let's try this another way. I think people are just misinterpreting the price mix and the revenue. Okay. Didn't you just say in your presentation gross margins are going to be favorable in FY21 versus FY20, which means positive growth year over year. Is that correct? Correct. And that stands in contrast to 2020. where gross margins fell 100 basis points year over year as you were behind price announcements because they happened so quickly. And then on SG&A, you just mentioned leverage is going to be lower. And if that's the case, your margins are expanding, and the actual negative price mix we see in the REV line is actually not affecting the operating leverage. It's just a revenue component. It's not actually compressing the margins, right?

Yeah, that's absolutely right, and the volumes help that SG&A leverage. Exactly. Just to be clear, we don't think SG&A is going to decline in an absolute dollar perspective, but we would expect that we would continue to see operating leverage from an SG&A perspective.

Correct.

And to your point, which is extremely important, and Jeff pointed this out in his prepared remarks, is that the current demand environment that we're in now is 180 degrees different from the demand environment in 2018 and even the beginning of 2019.

Right. And other, I mean, look, you all have perhaps, you know, along with another company, the most direct contact to new construction given you're upwards of 30% share. So I think you're speaking from some degree of insight that others lack. Now, The incrementals that you guys usually give, and Michael, correct me, but I mean 20%, 25%. That's where you guys are at, right, for incremental EBIT? Yep. Would you say there is any strong cadence, first half versus second half, that you see in your business based on backlogs on the EBIT line, not the gross or SG&A?

Yeah, so historically we would have, In the first half of the year, we would have lower incrementals than in the second half of the year. Admittedly, 2020 was, from so many levels, an extraordinary year. And, you know, we saw incredibly strong incrementals in the second and third quarter. But, you know, 2020 was, I mean, every quarter was a record for us. And, you know, it was a remarkable year. performance by our team. Just, I mean, as Jeff gave them a shout out in his prepared remarks, we can't say enough what an incredible job everyone in the field has done this year, given the environment. But we would expect that 21, and we talked about this previously, that given the current demand environment and that, you know, we are seeing a lot of demand from what is typically parts of the country that build all year round. Obviously, you know, there was a big disruption in Texas recently. But, you know, we would expect that the seasonality in the business would flatten out a little bit. And as a consequence, then you would probably see incremental margins being more stable across the year as opposed to getting that back half weighting of incremental margins.

And could we look at that sequentially given the stability? I mean, it suggests that sequentiality might be as applicable as year over year.

Yeah, I think that's probably a reasonable comment.

Great. And the last question, Jeff, to you, annual variable dividend, does this, can you, what does that mean? I mean, does that mean if you guys have 100 million extra, you know, or 50 million on the balance sheet, it's basically elective to the board to have a special dividend? Is that what, how I should interpret that or how do you want to communicate that?

Yeah, more or less. I mean, we haven't disclosed the circumstance, you know, the exact criteria that we'll use, but we certainly do have criteria. We're not, it's not just a Ouija board. So, and it is, it's based on, it's based on all the things we said, you know, kind of how much we acquire in a year, where we sit from a cash perspective, you know, how much cash we generated in the year, et cetera. And if we, you know, have performed on the other things that we believe take priority, mostly, you know, both acquisitions and then ultimately if we feel, you know, it's appropriate stock buybacks, then what's left, if it's excess, we're going to end up returning to shareholders.

And I think a key here, and it was both in my prepared remarks and in Jeff's prepared remarks, our number one priority from a capital allocation perspective continues to be, without a doubt, acquisitions. And, you know, we have a very robust pipeline, and, you know, just like we've been performing record quarters from earnings and revenue, we want to do record years in terms of acquired revenue as well. There's no reason why, given the cash flow that the company is generating, given our view over the next several years, particularly about single-family residential, that, you know, we shouldn't be looking toward multiple ways to create shareholder value.

Absolutely.

Thank you, gentlemen.

Sure. Thanks, Ken.

Our next question comes from Adam Baumgarten with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just maybe, again, on the acquisition strategy, I mean, it seems like you guys are pretty clear that it's very much intact, yet the business has grown and you're kind of guiding to $100 million or above. an acquired revenue, I guess, given the bandwidth you have, why not go much bigger? I mean, some of your, one of your peers was talking about some pretty sizable opportunities out there and you guys do seem to have a lot of white space within even just your existing markets, especially in commercial and some of the ancillary products. So, you know, has there been any change in acquisition strategy in terms of the aggregate amount that you guys are willing to do, or maybe the opportunities that are out there? Just if we could get a finer point on that.

I would say, if anything, there's more opportunities at higher dollar revenues. And it's why I just stated as an answer to Ken's question that we want every year to be a bigger year from an acquired revenue perspective. I will say, though, and I'll let Jeff talk about this as well, we are extremely disciplined about our acquisition criteria and the multiples that we pay for businesses. We will not period, overpay for a company. And that's been the case for the past 20 plus years, and it's going to be the case for the next 20 years.

Yeah, so we, I mean, you know, there are bigger deals out there, and when the right bigger deal presents itself to us under the right circumstances, we'll get it done. But we can't force people to sell who aren't yet sellers. So, you know, and we have a tendency, as you may or may not remember, I mean, I think when we originally came out, you know, the IPO, we had suggested maybe we might do 40 million a year in acquisition, you know, revenue acquisition, and we've ended up averaging closer to the 100 million. So, you know, it's kind of we're a little conservative, I guess, and we don't like to give guidance, as you know, but we're conservative and usually stating what it is that we want to try to get done. So I think the step up from us saying $40 to $100 million is actually kind of big, and we hope to outperform that considerably. But at least we're now on record as saying $100 million at least is a habit, right?

Yeah, no, that's helpful. Makes sense. And then just on price mix, I mean, Can you maybe give us a sense for what like-for-like pricing looked like in the quarter and how much of a headwind you saw, if you could size it, from this entry-level mix? Maybe if there was any deflation across some of the ancillary products or spray foam.

It had nothing to do with price. It was all mix. It was mix related to the production builder, entry-level, and greater growth in the other products. which we've talked, you know, I think every quarter for the past couple of years about, that that strategy is great from a leverage perspective in terms of creating, you know, G&A leverage, but it does create a negative price mix. So it had nothing to do with price deflation at all. Got it.

Really helpful. Thanks.

Sure. Our next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

My first question is, you know, Michael, you touched on this a bit in one of your previous comments, but, you know, obviously we've seen some extreme weather, especially in Texas and even in some parts of the East Coast and the Northeast over the last month or so. Can you just talk to any implications that you're seeing from that or what you are hearing on the ground there?

Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt there's been significant, as everyone knows, there's been significant weather events in the month. I would say that the east and northeast, they are accustomed to lots of snow and bad weather. So it had really little disruption there. The branches that may have had a day or two where they were shut down up there, they made it up over the weekend. So, you know, there's not pressure there. I would say, though, and I mean, you know, we use this word a lot over the past 12 months, but the weather event in Texas was a bit unprecedented, quite frankly. And all of our operations, quite frankly, in Texas were shut down for the week. And just as a context for people, Texas, both residential and commercial, represents about 12%, 13% of total revenue. Now, the good news is, is that on a couple of fronts is that we did start working again on the weekend. A lot of our branches actually worked Sunday as well to try and catch up. The work is there. As we've talked about before, it's not as if we've lost the revenue. It's just a question of when we get to the revenue. I would also say is that it wasn't just us that wasn't doing work. Basically, all trades were shut down in Texas for basically a full week. You know, that work is coming to us, but again, it can only come to us as quickly as the framers and the masons and everybody else can get their job done.

Gotcha. Okay, that's very helpful. And then, you know, not to beat this, but going back to the shift between volume and price mix, over the last couple of years, you know, maybe two years or so, it's really been the price mix that has led the revenue growth. But if we go back further... we've seen that they were either more balanced or that it was actually the volume that really kind of led that growth. As we think about coming into this kind of a multi-year housing growth environment, should we expect that it'll go back, that volume will really likely be what leads more of your growth versus the price mix, or that those two will move much more closely in line together?

Yeah, see, that's actually a great question. And you're absolutely right. If you look at it historically, they've been much more balanced. I mean, I think this is probably the most pronounced quarter we've ever had in terms of a delta between the two. And it's for the reasons that we talked about. But we would expect, particularly given the pricing environment that we talked about as it relates to, you know, kind of the inflationary environment, that as we go through 21, that we would probably get more balance between the two, certainly more balance than we have currently, or we did, I should say, in the fourth quarter. So... You know, we think that over time, and because you asked the question from a multi-year perspective, I think from a multi-year perspective, we would be more in balance from a price mix and a volume perspective. But again, we are leaning in hard to the, you know, very strong, tight relationships that we have with the production builders that are heavily focused on entry level It's great work for us. Yes, it is. It creates a price-mix headwind, but it's also super efficient, and those are great customers that we're working hard to gain market share with.

Okay, that's great, Collar. Thank you, and good luck.

Thanks. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Michael Rahat with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. First question, I just wanted to dial in a little bit more on the drivers of the gross margin in the fourth quarter. You kind of went through, I guess, year over year, you know, being driven a little bit more by some product mix diversification and higher volumes in terms of the year over year expansion. I was hoping to get a sense of the sequential move down. I think, you know, that, you know, was a little bit of a surprise to us. And then, you know, as you look at, you know, 21, you clarified that your outlook for gross margins to be favorable would mean a year-over-year expansion, in effect, over the 30.9 for 2020. If, you know, if that year-over-year improvement would be kind of across quarters or if it would be more back half weighted?

Well, as you know, we don't provide guidance, but, you know, we believe that, you know, again, on a full year basis that we would see improved gross margin. As we sit here today, there's no reason to not think that we would have improvement, you know, quarter over quarter from the prior year. But, you know, obviously things, you know, can change from quarter to quarter and you can have, you know, you know, changes to that. But right now, we feel extremely constructive about kind of the overall volume environment and, you know, our ability to get price, you know, given the demand environment. And we believe that that ends up being constructive from, you know, a quarter over quarter improvement in gross margin. And as we've been talking about, obviously, you know, volume is – you know, a good contributor to G&A leverage.

And thanks for that. And then just about the first part of the question around the sequential move in gross margins that declined about 80 basis points, 4Q from 3Q.

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, we've always talked about the seasonality of the business and that we, generally speaking, generate our highest gross margin in the third quarter. which has a lot to do with the type of work that we're installing in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. So, you know, we fully expected that we would see improvement like we did from the fourth quarter of 19, and it's very typical that we see this sort of slight compression, if you will, in gross margin from third quarter to fourth quarter.

Okay. I guess that seasonality wasn't the case in the last couple of years, which again was why I was a little surprised. Secondly, I just wanted to go back to the thoughts around capital allocation. I don't want to beat a dead horse, but I think it's an important point for investors. I think you've kind of said repeatedly that you remain very comfortable with the acquisition pipeline and you're targeting to continue that $100 million per year, or at least in 2021, and perhaps it could be, you know, you'd always like it to even be bigger year after year. You know, I guess just to, again, kind of clarify here, you know, the idea of, you know, dividends and perhaps even a special dividend at the beginning of the year is, that is not at all a reflection on, you know, the opportunity set in front of you diminishing. In other words, you know, certainly, you know, it's a positive thing to say your number one priority remains acquisitions and also, you know, the fact that, you know, you're looking to continue that $100 million per year, which I think is consistent with how we've understood acquisitions your goals in terms of M&A. But just, you know, to kind of round out the overall discourse on this, you know, the other part of it is that, you know, while it remains a number one priority, you could think, okay, it's still the number one priority, but maybe the opportunity set is diminished. And that's part of why you're looking at this more well-rounded, you know, capital allocation approach. So just wanted your thoughts on that. You know, that this move in capital allocation, you know, again, doesn't reflect the view that, you know, while still the number one priority, you just have less opportunities in front of you.

Yeah, I'll start to answer that question and let Jeff kind of complete it. But absolutely, 100%, the opportunity set in front of us from an acquisition perspective is better than it's ever been. The dividend is absolutely a signal of our confidence of where we are in the cycle, that we have a multi-year benefit that we can see in front of ourselves, and our absolute confidence in the business and our ability to continue to generate record cash flow.

Yeah, and I'll just say, and these are round numbers. We've stated them. But, I mean, more or less, we started – The year last year, let's say December 31 of 19, so January 1 of 20 more or less, with roughly $250 million of cash on the balance sheet, we acquired $107 million worth of revenue throughout the year. We ended the year with roughly $250 million of cash on the balance sheet, and we've got undrawn lines of credit. And debt is easy to get. So if an opportunity presents itself, we feel very confident of our ability to If it outstretches kind of what we've said in relation to the $100 million and the right deal comes along, we will absolutely look very hard at it and go ahead and hopefully get the deal done. But at the time, and part of the reason for the idea behind the variable is if that deal isn't in front of you at that moment, then we should probably return some dollars to the shareholders.

Great.

Thank you.

Sure. Our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. Did I hear you correctly? You reiterated your longer-term mid-teen EBITDA margin target, but you may have a chance to get there this year. And I guess longer-term, just given the momentum and demand profile you've seen, you're calling out, you know, what's an aspirational longer-term target?

Well, we have reconfirmed and have always talked about the mid-teens EBITDA margin. I guess it sort of depends on how you define mid-teens. I mean, because basically this year we were at 15%. And I think what we're saying is that we believe that over the course of 21, that's going to improve. So, you know, and once we continue to make that improvement, you know, we're not going to stop, right? This is a continual process to continue to improve margins. So, you know, The mid-teens is definitely what we've talked about, and arguably we're there now, but we continue to believe that, especially given the current demand environment, that we can continue to improve gross margin and also continue to leverage G&A.

Great. That's helpful. The strength in commercial has been really impressive. I mean, you were up in the fourth quarter again. Can you expand on what's driving that and appreciating that you called out more of a recovery in the back half just due to the timing and the lag in your backlogs. But do you expect commercial to be up in the first half?

You know, we talked about this, I think, the past couple of calls where, you know, we do think the first half of 21 in the commercial business on the same branch basis. And you probably saw that we've added additional disclosures in the release this quarter. just to help give people more insight into that business. But we would expect that it is going to be challenged in the first half of 21 on a same branch basis. But based on the backlogs and the bidding that we're seeing, we feel pretty good about the second half of this year. Quite frankly, and this is not news to anybody, what we're seeing is GCs and owners stretching out their decision-making process around certain projects and waiting to award bids. So when we look at our kind of backlog of work that we've bided, but that hasn't been awarded yet, you know, it gives us that confidence around kind of the back half of 21. Okay.

Thank you.

Appreciate it.

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Just two questions. First, talk a lot about bargains and of this call, I guess the bottom line is you've got a 20 to 25% EBITDA contribution margin goal that you beat in 2020. Is that still on the table for 21, getting a lot of moving parts on margins?

You mean beating it or the 20 to 25?

Start with the 20 to 25. Is that hittable for what's going on in this year?

Yeah, we feel extremely confident that on a full year basis we'll be in the 20 to 25% incrementals, if not better. Right, right. Okay, great.

Second question, back to the capital allocation. You made very clear acquisitions are the priority, but there's only so many you can do in a year. I guess the question is, what's next? I mean, is the dividend both special and reoccurring? Is that now the next choice of use of cash before share repurchase?

It's really going to depend because, as you know, we've been very opportunistic from a share repurchase perspective. We did acquire $33 million of shares during 2020, and the bulk of that was in the fourth quarter of this year, or more than 50% of that was in the fourth quarter of this year. So we're extremely opportunistic with it, and we will remain in that case. But I would say from a capital priority perspective, You know, we definitely believe that, you know, again, we're going to use multiple ways to return, quote, unquote, excess capital to shareholders. But, you know, we do think that the dividend is an important component of that, just, you know, given kind of where we are as a company. So, again, the main focus is, you know, capital, deploying capital to do acquisitions, You know, obviously investing in the existing business, you know, maintaining a very strong balance sheet with a lot of financial flexibility. But then clearly, you know, the dividends are going to be an important component of, you know, increasing shareholder returns going forward. Okay. Thank you.

Sure. Our next question comes from Justin Spear with Zellman & Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, guys. Thank you. Just starting off, thinking about your comments on the completion, if you could reiterate what you're thinking that the industry can do and then maybe juxtapose that with what you think you can do in a completion environment that you're looking for, at least for the single family side of things. Just trying to get a sense for volumetrically what you're thinking or what you're trying to message there.

Yeah, I mean, as we stated in previous calls, we do think that on a macro level, that, you know, a high single digits completions, and we're talking primarily about single family here and not multifamily or total completions, but that single family completions, just given the constraints that the industry has, and particularly some of the material disruptions that have occurred because of, you know, production, and I'm not speaking necessarily about just insulation, but old building products, the disruption that they've seen from, you know, curtailments or manufacturing that had capacity that had been taken down during the spring. That's really just catching up with the industry right now, quite frankly, because what happened is most manufacturers during the summer just worked off of existing inventories. So that's why you're seeing, you know, incredible tightness, quite frankly, across the building products market now as builders, excuse me, as manufacturers are trying to rebuild inventories and get product out. As you all know, there's been, you know, quite a bit of disruption from a shipping perspective or transportation perspective across the country, which has sort of exacerbated that issue. But, you know, we think all of those things, plus thin labor, particularly for subcontracted labor at the, you know, say the framing level, is just, you know, the ability to size that up, given where we are today, greater than a high single digit is, You know, we just don't currently see that happening, quite frankly. Now, obviously, there's going to be exceptions. There are certain builders that are absolutely going to perform well above that. But we're thinking about it in more of a macro-level basis. And when we think of the bottlenecks that are being created in the industry right now, the material that I just talked about, getting permitting done, and the challenges that builders are experiencing there across the board, not all builders, that it's just So again, from our perspective, I'm not saying we're right. I'm just saying that's our perspective. We think it's a high single-digit single-family completions number.

So as you think about, I guess, if you think about that, I guess, within the context of that kind of an environment, maybe historically you've taken pretty, I guess, considerable share in, I guess, in a market backdrop like that. Do you think that still continues today? And on top of that, just that price mix comment, I guess we've got two price increases this year. I'm guessing you're assuming there's going to be a third. Are you prepared for that in this kind of environment? You're obviously messaging that you can, but do you expect there might be any friction or maybe lagged impact to your profitability in the course of the year from that kind of cadence of price increases?

Yeah, this is Jeff. I don't think so at all, really. And as we've said, it's a far different environment than it was in 2018. You know, and not in any way to make light of it, but whatever we're doing on insulation pales in comparison to the things that builders are dealing with otherwise. I'm going to think about lumber for a moment, right? So we are a distant afterthought, which we've always said. Basically, everything we install, you know, we lovingly call nuisance products, But they're typically small ticket items, and we're the least of the worries, I think, when it comes to home price increases and builder cost increases.

Yeah, and I think, too, to the kind of first part of that question in terms of our ability to grow above the market, honestly, if you look at our volumes this quarter compared to completions, we grew way above the market. And we're really the only major installer contractor that buys from all four fiberglass manufacturers. which we believe gives us the opportunity to have greater access to material. And, you know, as Jeff commented earlier, you know, our turnover is well below industry averages. We continue to see labor productivity. So we're very confident that if the trades before us can come quality, you know, 13, 14%, we absolutely can meet that demand or exceed that demand.

Excellent. And then just kind of following up on that question, and thinking about the SG&A needs and requirements of the business, the overhead requirements. I know there's maybe some temporal good guys in 2020 that maybe don't repeat. Maybe could you give us a sense for your SG&A expense growth or design as you think about mapping out 2021 at any kind of high level directionally? I guess how much is it going to need to increase to accommodate the growth?

So from a – I mean, sales are really – or selling expense, excuse me, are really directly correlated or directly variable, if you will, to sales. So they're going to run between 4.5% to 5%. On the G&A side, we, you know, obviously got leverage this quarter, and we would expect that we would see, you know, a lower rate of growth on a same branch basis. Obviously, when we acquire acquisitions, they bring in G&A. With one of the notable exceptions, and we've talked about this in previous calls, is that our field management team, the vast majority of their compensation is tied to profitability. So as we increase profitability, that increases the G&A costs associated with that variable component to their compensation. But structurally, there's nothing significant within our G&A. Currently, as we look towards 21, that's going to substantially change that outlook to be more than a typical sort of inflationary rate I would say to the kind of first part of your question in terms of good guys that we had in 20, you know, really at this point, the only thing looking in 20 that's, you know, still from an expense perspective that's benefiting us, quite frankly, is at lower fuel costs. I mean, fuel has been, if you look over the past 10 years, you know, fuel has been, you know, and it continues to be. Obviously, it's changing a little bit. with, you know, fuel has been, you know, a good guy, if you will, in going into or throughout 2020. And we would expect that that would normalize more as we go through 21. And to give you a sense of context, you know, right now, we probably have a benefit of about a million dollars a quarter from the lower fuel costs.

Okay. Okay. And then just follow up on that last question for me is on the cash flow side. Is Do you think about free cash conversion for 2021 and your capital needs? Do you have any thoughts there in terms of not just for 2021, but just try to normalize free cash conversion on net income going forward?

I would say that it's going to be consistent with historical trends. Obviously, since the tax rates have been lowered, it would be consistent with those trends. We don't see anything especially unique relative to, you know, kind of 21 and 22, with the one exception, which this is true really, I don't think many companies talk about it, but it's true of every company, is that as part of, you know, the first COVID Relief Act, we were able to defer, we still expense it, but we've been able to defer the employer portion of certain taxes that are paid to the government, and we have to pay that back in the end of this year and the end of 22. So that will slightly, just slightly impact cash flows in 21 and 22. Not expense. Again, it's all been expense. It's just that it's a deferral. But other than that, there's really nothing significant from historical trends.

Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it. I'll get you on the other side.

Yep. Our next question comes from Ryan Gilbert with BTIG. Pleased to see you with your question.

Hi. Thanks, guys. Good morning. Really appreciate all the detail that you've provided on this call. Just one question for me on multifamily, really strong growth over the last couple of quarters, and it's pretty clear that the new bidding system that you put in place has allowed you to take some market share. Just looking at the, I guess, nationally, the multifamily permits and starts numbers, we've seen a pretty meaningful year-over-year decline over the last few months. So I'm just wondering if you could, you know, add a little detail or give us some color on what you're seeing in your multifamily markets just in terms of permits, starts, or just overall construction activity.

Yeah, you're absolutely right in your question and comments there. We feel from a multifamily perspective that we still have a lot of opportunity because we're sort of under-indexed to multifamily, if you will. And the focus of our multifamily is really suburban as opposed to urban, which we think if you kind of break apart where permits and starts are, it is more suburban rather than urban driven right now from a multifamily perspective. And we have performed extremely well with our strategy of gaining market share in markets where we weren't doing multifamily. We're going to continue to do that. That being said, I mean, you know, as we continue to perform on this strategy, the comps become incredibly difficult, right? I mean, you know, talk about growing extremely well against the market. I mean, we've really, you know, just honestly, our team there has just done an incredible job of performing well above any market expectation as it relates to the multifamily opportunity. So we would continue or we believe we will continue to you know, to outperform the relative market. But, you know, when you grow sales almost 40%, it becomes a really tough comp going into the next year.

Yeah, but, I mean, I'd just reiterate, our specific market opportunity absolutely runs against, in a good way, the tide, really, in multifamily. There's so much market opportunity for us.

Yep. Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Sure. Our next question is from Ruben Gardner with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Good morning, guys, and thanks for squeezing me in. Most of my questions have been answered. I just have one kind of high-level macro question. I think one of the headwinds for just the broader industry coming into 2020 was kind of a shrinking, you know, household and, you know, if you guys already talked about this, apologies. I've been in and out of the call with the connection issues. But what are you guys seeing or hearing anything from the builders about maybe that trend turning around and, you know, even in a high single-digit completions growth environment, maybe, you know, the amount of material needed is, you know, maybe a tailwind instead of the headwind it had been for the last several years?

Well, I think it goes back to the, you know, as entry level continues to gain share, if you will, or continues to come back to, you know, its more historic levels as a percentage of total single family starts and completions. I think that naturally means that square footage comes down because those are obviously much smaller homes than move up or custom homes. That being said, from a fiberglass demand perspective, you know, that entry-level product is pretty much almost exclusively fiberglass as opposed to spray foam or cellulose. So I do think it creates good demand for fiberglass and, you know, for our services. But it definitely will, if you look at the aggregate macro numbers, I would imagine that, again, as we get back to a more normalized mix between entry-level move-up and custom, that you would see square footages come down. But I don't think people are building a smaller house in the same category, if you know what I mean. So they're not building smaller entry-level houses. They're not building smaller move-up houses. I think, if anything, there's probably a bit of a weighting towards building the houses a little bit bigger, given some of the obvious things that are happening from a work-from-home perspective.

Perfect. Thank you, guys, and congrats on the close to 2020. Good luck this year.

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

We've reached the end of the question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff Edwards for closing comments.

Thank you all for your questions, and I look forward to our next quarterly call. Thanks again.

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.