Installed Building Products, Inc.

Greetings. Welcome to the Installed Building Products Fiscal 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Jason Neismonger. You may begin.

Good morning, and welcome to Installed Building Products' third quarter 2021 conference call. Earlier today, we issued a press release on our financial results for the third quarter, which can be found in the investor relations section of our website. On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements include statements about future expectations, anticipation, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, plans, and prospects. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Any forward-looking statement made by management during this call is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially as a result of various factors, including without limitation the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis, general economic and industry conditions, the material price and supply environment, the timing of increases in our selling prices, and the factors discussed in the risk factors section of the company's annual report on Form 10-K, as may be updated from time to time in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof. The company undertakes no duty or obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. except as required by federal securities laws. In addition, management uses certain non-GAAP performance measures on this call, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, and adjusted net income for diluted share, adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross profit margin, and adjusted selling and administrative expense. You can find a reconciliation of such measures to their nearest GAAP equivalent in a company's earnings release and additional reconciliation for adjusted EBITDA for earlier fiscal years in our investor presentation, which are available on our website. This morning's conference call is hosted by Jeff Edwards, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Miller, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

Thanks, Jason, and good morning to everyone joining us on today's call. As usual, I will start the call with some highlights on the quarter and then turn the call over to Michael Miller, IDP CFO, who will discuss our financial results and capital position in more detail before we take your questions. I'm proud to report another quarter of record revenues and strong profitability as our team members remain focused on serving our customers and strategically growing our business. During the third quarter, we experienced double-digit year-over-year sales growth across our single-family, multifamily, and commercial end markets, reflecting robust demand for our installation services, the benefit of recent price increases, and the contribution of acquired residential and commercial revenue. Third quarter sales increased 21.2% from the third quarter of 2020. Price mix increased 7.2%, which is the highest increase we have experienced in six quarters. This not only reflects the underlying demand for our installation services, but also the hard work of our local branches to keep our pricing aligned with the value we offer our customers. On the same branch basis, volume growth increased nearly 5% from the prior year, demonstrating the high demand we are experiencing for our installation services across our end markets. Importantly, we achieved record third-quarter profitability as GAAP net income increased 24% to $1.18 per diluted share, and our adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to a quarterly record of $78.1 million. We continue to attract, develop, and retain strong team members as a result of the entrepreneurial and empowering culture we have created, and I am proud to report labor trends remain extremely strong across IDP's platform. To everyone at the company, thank you for your continued contributions and dedication to IDP. In addition, I am proud to announce that we issued our inaugural Environmental, Social, and Governance Report on October 18th. Our primary insulation installation services are a critical component to improve energy efficiency in residential and commercial structures. Within our report, we've highlighted the environmental benefits of insulation as well as our internal initiatives on topics such as health and safety, greenhouse gas emissions, and diversity and equity and inclusion. We are dedicated to doing our part to improve the world around us by implementing critical ESG initiatives. As our ESG program expands, I'm excited by the opportunities we have to create additional value for our employees, communities, customers, vendors, and shareholders. In the third quarter, we continue to navigate several unique dynamics that exist across our markets. As expected, the supply chain for many of the building products and materials we install remain constrained during the third quarter. We anticipate that supply chain challenges will continue for the foreseeable future, but our asset-light business model enables us to remain flexible and generate strong cash flow in spite of continued disruptions. In addition, we continue to benefit from our national scale, material buying advantage, and strategic plans aimed at diversifying and expanding our products and markets in geographic presence. Overall, trends throughout the U.S. housing industry remain robust. We believe the recent decline in residential completions is attributable to increased cycle times rather than softening market demand, as according to the U.S. Census Bureau housing data, the backlog in units authorized but not started is up 42% from the end of last year, and units under construction continue to remain near cycle highs. During the third quarter of 2021, total residential completions decreased by 1.9% year-over-year. as a 2% increase in single-family completions was offset by a 12.1% decrease in multifamily completions. Single-family housing demand continues to benefit from low mortgage rates and favorable demographics that have driven an increase in demand for entry-level housing. We believe these trends will continue, supporting further growth as the industry approaches stabilization in the years to come. Our same-branch volume growth increased by nearly 5% during the 2021 third quarter, demonstrating strong demand across our core single-family end markets. Notably, price mix trends have improved sequentially throughout 2021, and for the third quarter, price mix increased 7.2% over the prior year period. Continued realization of higher selling price increases combined with comparable mix of revenue relative to the prior year contributed to the positive price mix trend in the quarter. Turning to our multifamily end market, demand also remains strong within this segment of the housing industry and across many of our markets. As a result, our multifamily sales grew 18.2% during the 2021 third quarter, including a 10.9% increase on the same branch basis. Our commercial markets continue to be impacted by COVID-19 pandemic, less consistent material availability relative to pre-pandemic periods, and supply chain disruptions. Our commercial end market sales increased 16.3% for the third quarter was driven by recent acquisitions as same branch sales declined 5.6%. Large commercial same branch sales decreased modestly by 1.1% on a year-over-year basis as a result of timing related to the completion of projects in our large commercial backlog of business. Bidding activity remains strong, and project bid acceptance continues to improve, which we believe supports a continued improvement in this end market. The large commercial construction market continues to represent a significant long-term growth opportunity for IDP, and we remain focused on improving our operational efficiency while expanding our exposure within compelling commercial markets across the U.S. Looking at our acquisition strategy in more detail, we continue to prioritize profitable growth through acquiring well-run installers of insulation and complementary building products. I'm pleased to report that as of today's call, we have completed nine acquisitions representing over $130 million of annual revenues, surpassing our $100 million of acquired revenue target for this year. During the 2021 third quarter, we acquired a Utah-based installer of fiberglass and garage doors for residential and multifamily customers with annual revenue of approximately $25 million. We also acquired a Pennsylvania-based installer of insulation and gutter services to residential and commercial customers with annual revenue of approximately $4 million during the quarter. Since the third quarter ended, we have announced two additional acquisitions, an Oregon-based installer of insulation, gutters, windows, and siding, and a Texas-based installer of glass, mirrors, and related products. Our acquisition pipeline remains robust, and we expect to be active through the end of the year. With less than two months left in 2021, we remain encouraged by our strong year-to-date performance and compelling outlook. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts are up almost 20% this year, which we believe supports continued demand for our install services. We anticipate the supply chain for many of our products will be constrained for the remainder of the year and into 2022. In addition, materials needed for spray foam applications continue to be in short supply after chemical processing facilities went offline during the February 2021 winter storms and additional supply chain challenges impacted certain suppliers throughout the year. The supply chain issues were compounded by high demand for spray chrome components in other industries. As many of you know, insulation manufacturers, including large fiberglass suppliers, announced price increases that went into effect throughout the summer and as recently as September of this year. Additional fiberglass price increases are set to take effect in December and into the beginning of next year. With access to labor, a strong position with our customers and suppliers, a healthy housing industry, demand dynamics. We believe we are well positioned to navigate the current inflationary environment better than any other period in our history. It's also important to note that although prices have been rising, insulation represents a small portion of the total cost to build a home, which we believe allows us greater flexibility to maintain margins by prudently increasing prices with our customers. I'm pleased with our third quarter and year-to-date performance as our team continues to work tirelessly to respond to customer needs and support the growth of our business. As we enter the fourth quarter, we believe 2021 will be another record year for IBP, and I'm excited by the opportunities ahead in 2022. So with this overview, I'd like to turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on our third quarter results. Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

Net sales for the third quarter increased to a quarterly record of $509.8 million, compared to $420.5 million for the same period last year. The $89.3 million, or 21.2% year-over-year improvement in sales during the quarter, was mainly driven by an increase in price mix, higher volume of customer jobs completed, growth in other complementary products, and the revenue contribution from recent acquisitions. On a same-branch basis, net revenue improved 11.2% from the prior year quarter, driven by single-family same-brand sales growth of 15.2%. Multi-family same-brand sales growth increased 10.9%, which resulted in a combined total residential same-brand sales growth of 14.5%. This result outpaced total U.S. housing completions, which declined by 1.9% during the third quarter. However, the pandemic's lingering effects continue to impact our commercial and market. Same-brand commercial sales decreased 5.6% in the 2021 third quarter. Large commercial same-brand sales continued to improve sequentially, declining by 1.1% in the quarter, while multifamily high-rise projects helped total same-branch growth in our large commercial branches increase by 7.2%. Adjusted gross profit margin declined 70 basis points, 30.7%, compared to 31.4% for the same period last year, primarily due to inflationary pressure and supply shortages. We estimate that overall material inflation in the third quarter of 2021 was in the low double digits and material supply shortages had an impact of approximately $2 million on gross profit during the quarter. The impact from just the supply shortages reduced adjusted gross profit margin by approximately 40 basis points. Administrative expenses as a percent of third quarter sales were 13.4% of 50 basis point improvement from the prior year period. Adjusted SG&A as a percent of third quarter sales also improved 50 basis points from the prior year period. The year-over-year improvements in SG&A expense relative to sales during the third quarter reflects our ability to leverage administrative costs during strong volume growth periods. On a gap basis, our third quarter net income increased 24.3% from the prior year quarter to $34.9 million or $1.18 per diluted share. Our adjusted net income improved 22.6% to $44 million or $1.49 per diluted share compared to $35.9 million or $1.21 for diluted share in the prior year quarter. We estimate the material supply shortages impact earnings per share by approximately 5 cents per diluted share. During the third quarter of 2021, The acquisition of new businesses drove an increase in our recorded amortization expense to $9.2 million compared to $7 million for the same period last year. This non-cash adjustment impacts net income, which is why we continue to believe that adjusted EBITDA is the most useful measure of profitability. Based on the acquisitions completed year-to-date, we expect a fourth quarter 2021 amortization expense of approximately $9.5 million. and full-year 2021 expense of approximately $36.3 million. This figure will change with any acquisitions we close in future periods. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2021 improved to a quarterly record of $78.1 million, representing an increase of 18% from $66.2 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of net revenue was 15.3% for the 2021 third quarter compared to 15.7% for the same period last year. Same branch incremental adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.2% for the third quarter. Similar to the impact on gross profit, we estimate that material supply shortages during the quarter impacted adjusted EBITDA by approximately $2 million, reducing our adjusted EBITDA margin by approximately 40 basis points. For the 2021 third quarter, our effective tax rate was approximately 26.1%, and we continue to expect an effective tax rate of 25% to 27% for the full year ending December 31, 2021. Now let's look at our liquidity balance sheet to capital requirements in more detail. Our business model continues to generate strong operating cash flow. For the nine months ended September 30th, 2021, we have generated $116.5 million in cash flow from operations compared to $143.9 million in the prior year period. This year-over-year decline in operating cash flow was primarily associated with elevated working capital requirements needed to support robust year-over-year sales growth in a highly inflationary environment. At September 30th, 2021, we had $196.7 million in working capital, excluding cash and cash equivalents, while capital expenditures and total incurred finance leases for the nine months ending September 30th, 2021 were $27.9 million, while total incurred finance leases were $1.9 million. Capital expenditures and finance capital leases as a percent of revenue were 2.1% for the nine months ending September 30th, 2021, compared to 2.2% for the nine months ending September 30, 2020. At September 30, 2021, we had total cash and short-term investments of $191.4 million, compared to $231.5 million at December 31, 2020. Total debt at September 31, 2021 was $571.9 million, compared compared to $569.9 million at December 31, 2020, and $573.4 million at September 30, 2020. Our net total debt was approximately $380.5 million at September 30, 2021, compared to $338.4 million at December 31, 2020, and $304.8 million at September 30, 2020. At September 30, 2021, we had a net debt to adjusted trailing 12-month EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.4 times, well below our stated expectation of a leverage ratio of less than two times. We continue to prioritize profitable growth through our proven strategy of acquiring well-run installers of insulation and complementary building products. For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, we have invested over $95 million in acquisitions, compared to operating cash flow of $116.5 million. We also continue to return capital to shareholders, and today we announced that IVP's Board of Directors approved our fourth quarter dividend of $0.30 per share, which is payable on December 31, 2021, to stockholders of record on December 15, 2021. Year-to-date, the company has not repurchased any shares of its common stock, compared to $15.8 million of shares repurchased during the same period last year. $100 million of availability remains under our current share repurchase program, which expires March 1, 2022, unless extended by our Board of Directors. We continue to believe we have considerable financial flexibility, supported by a strong cash position and limited financial covenants. In addition, with no significant debt maturities until 2025 and strong liquidity, we have considerable financial resources to invest in our long-term growth opportunities. With that, I will now turn the call back to Jeff for closing remarks.

Thanks, Michael. I'd like to conclude our prepared remarks by once again thanking IDP employees for their hard work, dedication, and commitment to our company during this very challenging period. Our success over the years and more recently is made possible because of you. Operator, let's open up the call for questions.

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star, too, if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. And our first question is from Mike Riott with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, Zach. Good morning, everyone.

First question, I'd love to dig in a little bit on the gross margins and price mix dynamics that you're seeing currently. Obviously, on the price mix side, you finally turned positive. Actually, I think you kind of were a little ahead of what we were expecting, so very strong improvement there. At the same time, the gross margins are still down year over year, and obviously you highlighted some of the challenges in material purchases. What's interesting is that, you know, the year-over-year growth margin decline narrowed from the second quarter, and also the headwind from the retail purchases also narrowed, but still down. And so I was hoping if you could just kind of delve into some of the drivers of those dynamics. I know you've mentioned that a mixed shift to production builders has been a drag year over year. if perhaps you can update or kind of quantify even what that drag is and, you know, how should we think about those dynamics as you're starting to lap the year-over-year and we're approaching the fourth quarter? Hey, Mike. Good morning. This is Michael Miller. So there's a lot to unpack from that question. But primarily what I would say is that, yes, the price mix trends continue to go well. They're continuing to go well into the fourth quarter. Clearly, the challenges that we had relative to gross margin in the quarter were really all around, quite frankly, material inflation. And to some extent, a little bit of mixed shift to the production builders as well as some of the other products. But the mixed headwind associated with the shift to the production builders and the other products was much less this quarter than it has been particularly this in the beginning or the first half of this year. And I would say that, you know, it's really our – we feel that we're, you know, the strength that we're starting to see on the price mix side as we exit the quarter, go into the fourth quarter, we feel very constructive about. But there's no doubt that the supply disruptions, mature inflation, have been, you know, very significant. You know, a lot of companies have talked about it. The other thing that impacts gross margin as well in the quarter is higher fuel costs. We use a lot of fuel, and as everybody knows, the cost of fuel has gone up considerably as well.

I'm glad Michael added supply disruptions again on top of inflation because the dollar amounts that we associate with and kind of disclose around buying out of non-normal channels, meaning either retailers or out of distribution channels, That's just what that is, exactly that. And it doesn't count times where we've maybe been forced to go maybe direct, but to a different supplier because there's a supply chain issue with our predominant supplier that, again, because you're there at their doorstep with the day's notice, the price is not the same.

Right. No, I appreciate that.

You know, I guess just, you know, you mentioned, Michael, the price mix turning positive and seeing strength into 4Q. Any types of thoughts around how we should think about 4Q gross margins, given that trend in price mix may be strengthening also? You're seeing the headwind of the retail purchases lessening a little bit. Should we still be looking for a – gross margin on a year-over-year basis that would be down but maybe less so than the 70 bits of 3Q? Could it turn positive? Any type of directional guidance on a year-over-year or sequential basis would be helpful. Yeah, Mike, as you know, we don't provide guidance in obviously any – Positive momentum that we continue to have on price mix is constructive, but I would say that the inflationary environment, it continues to be unprecedented, quite frankly. So obviously that weighs on the price mix improvements that we're seeing. I would say, though, that we ended the quarter in September with a fairly solid inventory position. And I would say that the supply chain disruptions that we experienced in the beginning of the quarter did slowly abate. They were still there, and we expect them to continue into 22, but they definitely improved and have been improving, particularly since July and August.

That, what Mike was commenting about, is primarily related to fiberglass, which obviously is a large, large portion of what we do, but the foam supply market and chain is still struggling. Yeah.

It's actually remarkable how struggling it is. But it sounds like from that comment that if your inventory position has maybe further solidified and supply chain disruption is lessening, that that $2 million headwind that was closer to $3 million in the second quarter could continue to decline in the fourth quarter. Is that fair? Well, I think back to Jeff's answer to your first question is, I mean, we're expecting that those purchases out of distribution and retail will be mitigated in the fourth quarter. But what's not included in that number, which is extremely important, is the inflation that we're seeing in products that we're buying direct from distribution, or excuse me, direct from the manufacturers, whether that be spray foam, aluminum, or gutter coil, garage doors, and fiberglass. So as I think everyone knows, there's a fiberglass price increase out there. So there definitely continues to be I would say an unprecedented level and frequency of inflation in the market right now.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from the line of Susan McLary with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning. Good morning, Sue.

My first question is, you know, obviously the builders have had a lot of headwinds and, you know, the three big builders have taken down their closings guide for this year. Can you just talk about, you know, the volume trends that you're seeing on the ground and, you know, any color on how you're thinking about the backlogs into the end of this year and then through maybe early 2022? Sure.

Yeah, so this is Michael. I mean, the backlogs are obviously at, as everyone knows, are at cycle highs. I mean, it's incredible that, you know, the authorized but not started number is up 40% from last year. As you know, basically completions in the quarter were in essence sort of flat and starts were up 20%. So the backlog just continues to build. I would say that, you know, The building product chain continues to see supply disruptions and material disruptions as well as labor issues. Fortunately for us as a company, you know, the labor situation has been pretty solid for us. But as we've talked about in both our prepared remarks as well as the answer to Mike's question, you know, supply has really been the challenge for us is getting enough supply and getting that levels that we would expect given the current demand environment, as well as getting it at the pricing that we would expect as well. So it's a challenge that we're working to meet, but it clearly is an extremely strong volume demand environment, and we expect, just given the length of the backlogs and the increase in cycle times, that it will continue well into 2022.

Okay, that's helpful. And kind of building on that, you know, you mentioned labor, and that's been a really big topic lately, obviously. You've done a lot around labor and putting in very specific programs over the last several years. Can you talk a little bit about your labor position, how you're thinking about it, and, you know, the relative advantages maybe that you're seeing from that that are allowing you to incrementally gain further share in this kind of environment?

Yeah, so we still feel pretty good about our labor position. I mean, we've struggled like everyone else in terms of getting new applicants in the door for sure during the period of time where there was a lot of federal and state money floating around. And now that that's over, most everywhere, hopefully that trend starts to change and we can get a continual supply of good. We're clearly in a position to be able to kind of continue to do what we've been doing as it relates to market opportunity. And turnover, again, remains, we believe, quite a bit below industry averages. So it's still working in our favor.

Yeah, and I think one of the things that I would point to is that our residential same-branch sales growth, so organic sales growth, was up basically 15% in the quarter. And you need to size up with the labor force to get that done. And we've been able to very effectively do that. It's not as if it's easy, but it's a lot easier to source labor than it is to source material right now.

Well, Susan, I didn't mean to imply, too. I mean, there's definitely wage pressure. We know that, right? I mean, there is the occasional installer now that, let's say, decides to go work for Amazon for $28 an hour. but it's very infrequent, and, you know, and what we're doing is we're making sure that we're taking care in this environment where those kind of jobs are available, we're making sure that we're taking care of our installers. Yeah.

But, you know, the issues that we face on a margin perspective are not on labor efficiency. No.

Yes. Okay. That's helpful, Collar. Thank you, and good luck.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, this is Joe Allersmeyer. I'm for Steve. Thanks for taking my questions. Sure. Just first, should we expect that the mixed normalization that you've seen now in the back half, should that continue in the first half of next year, or does that growing backlog of residential builder projects activity indicate that you could once again over-index to those builders in the first couple quarters? And then assuming that, you know, we can make our own volume and price assumptions, just want to follow up on Mike's question from earlier. You know, we should sort of know what the volume and price mix impacts were for the first half of this year. Would you mind just maybe calling those out so we can be mindful of that lapping as we look at the front half?

So on the mix headwinds from production builders and other products, You know, we would expect that, or I would say that within the third quarter and really the second half, the headwind, which has been mitigated significantly in the second half of this year, we would expect that trend to continue into 2022. That being said, you know, we still are seeing higher growth rates and would expect to continue to see higher growth rates in the first half of 2022 from production builders. It's just not the delta in that growth rate relative to our other builders is not as high. And as a consequence, the mixed headwind is a little bit lighter. In terms of – I'm not sure the second part of your question about what the price mix and volume was during the year, but so for the nine months, price mix growth was basically flat and volume was up 10%, and in the quarter it was up. 5% on volume and about 7% on price mix. But was that your question?

I guess it was more you knew you had a headwind in the first couple quarters of this year on the price mix because you were having those greater job numbers within the volume. I guess if the mix has normalized and you're then going to be lapping that greater mix of production from 21, that should sort of distort your volume and price mix that you'll report in the first half of next year.

Yes. I think the comparison to both volumes, again, the headwind that we experienced in the first half of this year as it relates to mix, you know, is mitigated in the back half of this year and will continue to be sort of at a more stabilized level in the first half of next year.

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then just quickly on the commercial business, you talked about timing and Is that a reference to delays maybe in other building products ahead of you in the process? And would you then have already seen those delayed projects realized in your P&L for October, similar to what we've heard from other, well, I guess from manufacturers that sell into commercial projects?

Yeah, the timing delay is a combination of the trades that come before us and also just projects taking place. longer than the GCs would have expected. I would say that all of that is not unwound for sure in October. We expect that it's going to continue to unwind in the fourth quarter as well as into 22, depending on the project. I do think it's important to point out, though, when we disclose our large commercial same-brand sales growth, it excludes high-rise or large commercial multifamily. That's in the multifamily numbers that we disclosed. If you incorporated the large commercial multifamily sales growth on the same branch basis within the large commercial organic number, sales for the large commercial business would have been up on an organic basis, again, over 7%. So we feel good about what that business is doing. You know, but there's definitely – there's no doubt that it's facing more challenges, if you will, than the residential side of the business. But our backlogs are good there. You know, they're up double digits from last year. And, you know, we're continuing to see good both bidding activity and bidding acceptance there.

All right, great. Thanks a lot, guys. Good luck.

Sure.

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgartner with Zellman & Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just kind of think about sort of industry manufacturing capacity versus your ability to get supply. I mean, it's our understanding that the industry can supply about 1.5 million starts, and we're now trending from a completions perspective below that. So, I guess, help us square your ability – or your difficult ability to get insulation in an environment where, you know, on the ground demand is actually lower than overall capacity for the manufacturers?

Well, what I would say is that as a result of 2020 and the kind of the slowdown of production and actually, you know, turning the furnaces down and the spinners down, right after COVID when nobody knew what was going to happen, that was a shock to the system in terms of... And then sales to the contractor, sales to the builder, and the actual work did not slow down at all. So it takes a long time, I think, for the industry to recover from kind of going to the point where the coverage were bare in terms of inventory and mixing stock. And that's what's taken a long period of time to build back up. I think... based on where we are with our suppliers and kind of based on our ability to now build inventory, I think they're finally getting on top of it to a degree. And a lot of times it's a product mix. I mean, it's not that there's not enough glass out there, per se, or pounds out there. In a lot of cases where we've gone to distribution or we've gone to retail, it was for a single specific project, you know, product in little quantities. It wasn't big, you know, for the most part. you know, major full trailer loads of one of your standard products. And then there was logistical issues, too, in terms of filling loads and trucking and other things like that. But I think it's getting better, I guess is what we would say. But I understand why you would ask that question, because if you're at $1,368,000 or whatever the number is or something short of $1,004,000 and the industry says they can do $1,005,000, you know, that's a logical question to ask, and that's where I think we are.

Yeah, I think the fiberglass supply chain, I would say, has improved faster than we thought it was going to, where the other supply chains for things like spray foam and drive stores and other things have gotten worse, and we expect them to get better.

Well, the other thing that's happening is that in those other industries, and even sometimes inside of fiberglass, the manufacturers are making decisions because things are tight everywhere. of what industry to sell the product that they make if it's got multiple uses, what industry to sell it into where they get a higher price.

Does that make sense? I mean, some of the capacity that's coming online, somebody recently announced new capacity that's coming online, we believe all of that is obviously very constructive for the industry. And it's a very strong sign from the manufacturers that they're willing to invest you know, very significant sums of money to bring on new capacity. I think it's extremely productive.

Got it. And then just, you know, going back to maybe earlier in the year when you guys were a bit more skeptical on industry growth, at least with the builders, we're kind of putting it out there earlier in the year, and that's since, you know, kind of corrected a bit closer to where you guys initially were. I guess as we look at the next year with some of the supply from manufacturers improving a little bit and, you know, maybe some of the constraints across the industry easing. Any thoughts on the industry's ability to grow next year, similar to maybe this year? Or what are the puts and takes you kind of see as you look out today?

Honestly, so much of it is going to depend upon the supply chain and the supply chain getting in a more stabilized position. From what we can tell, it feels as if that's going to happen in 2022. It might not be until the back half of 22. So we think that allows the industry to, you know, this year if you assume completions growth is a little bit better than the year-to-date sort of 6%. Maybe it gets to a little bit higher single digits. It seems plausible that with the supply chain getting back to a more, you know, normal cadence that, you know, we could definitely see, low double-digit growth next year in completion.

Got it. Thanks, Marcus.

My next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, this is Chris Collado from Mike. Thanks for taking my questions. Going back to the gross margin dynamics this quarter, obviously it sounds like mixes improving and the headwinds from sourcing products from alternative channels is diminishing. But I guess from a core price-cost perspective, how much progress have you guys made this quarter and what's your outlook on 4Q in terms of raising traditional pricing over your inflation?

Obviously, it's our objective to raise prices above the inflationary pressure that we're seeing on the material side. But it is one of those things that and given just the, and I'm not speaking necessarily about fiberglass here, because the fiberglass manufacturers have continued to give pretty decent notice of when they announce a price increase and when it becomes effective. I would say the rest of the materials that we buy does not fall in that category, and there have been many instances where we've received price increases the same day that they're effective. And I would say to you that it is, it's very difficult to raise a price on something that you're installing that day or next week. So there's definitely some compression there that we're seeing, and we're working hard to get on top of. But it definitely – there's no doubt about it that it's a challenge. Our team, we believe, is doing an excellent job trying to stay on top of it. But it is definitely a constant challenge.

Well, I'm an engineer. The overarching comment would be that we feel good about getting price and about kind of improving in that regard. But as I said, every time we've had a conversation about raising prices, it's, you know, if you stand back, you know, a mile away and look at it, it looks smooth, like it's a smooth upward, you know, trend. But what I can tell you if you look closely is that it's a very, you know, I've said that like the times on a saw, I mean, it's a little uglier than that getting, you know, getting to that point. And so you're To Michael's point, fiberglass is fine. It's relatively easy for us to perform in that regard because we do get such long notice in advance, and you can set a builder up for that and have good constructive conversations with them about it, and they can do the same with buyers and price of the home, et cetera. But it's all the other instances on the other product lines, quite frankly, that are the ones that are tough.

Understood. Appreciate the color there. And just switching over to commercial outlook for next quarter, where you sit today and given what you're seeing in your backlogs, are you expecting similar types of same store declines as you saw this quarter?

Yeah, this is Michael. So, again, as you know, we don't provide guidance, but we're feeling constructive about that business. And as I said in answer to an earlier question, you know, based on including the multifamily high-rise large commercial work in our large commercial business, sales in the quarter would have been up a little over 7%. So we feel good that that business is continuing to make forward progress. And as I said, the backlogs and bidding activity is good. It's solid. And, yeah, we continue to be encouraged. Clearly, it is not – the growth rates that we're seeing on the residential side of the business right now and believe that will continue. But it definitely has good medium and long-term prospects.

I appreciate you taking my questions. Sure.

And our next question comes from the line of Noah Mercusco with Stevens Inc. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Sure, sure. So, yeah, you know, it's been said, strong pricing in the quarter. It sounds like there's some manufacturing capacity coming on later this year, early next year. But I guess at a high level, it still sounds like this supply-demand dynamic will be similar for next year. If that's the case, you know, in terms of frequency and magnitude, what are you expecting from the manufacturers on price increases?

On the fiberglass side? I mean, there's already a price increase in essence announced for 22, right? Because it's December slash January. Given the early timing associated with the one for this year, I mean, I think you could see another three price increase announcements for a total of four for the year. Or at least three.

Yeah. Yeah. Even though we used to say that more than two was relatively unprecedented. Gotcha.

That's helpful. And then...

I'm sorry to just follow up on that question because I think this is a very important point that Jeff made in answering the last question is that the fiberglass manufacturers continue to give us advance notice and that advance notice is critical to us getting a better matching of the price inflation or material inflation and selling price increases as it relates to fiberglass. The other product manufacturers they're not doing as good a job, particularly on the spray foam side, of being able to give us that kind of forward look into what pricing will look like. And that's where more of the challenge comes in.

I mean, go back to a statement we've said probably on every call we've ever been on, and that is a rising price environment is a good thing, not a bad thing. Now, is it tiresome? And do you have to fight the battle every day? Yes. But a rising price environment is still a good thing.

Yeah, that's helpful. Thank you. And then for my follow-up, the organic incremental EBITDA margins have been running a little lower than your target range so far this year. You know, I know there's some tough comps there, but for next year, do you think that 20% to 25% is a good bogey?

Yeah, I mean, we believe that on a full-year basis – You know, obviously, you know, this year is going to be difficult as it relates to the 20% to 25%. But on a full-year basis, the 20% to 25% still absolutely makes sense. I mean, obviously, the critical component to getting there is a smooth supply chain that, you know, has a much better cadence and less frequency of price increases and also, you know, sufficient material to meet the demand that's out there. I think this is obvious to everyone on the call and based on our comments. For us, this has been a material supply issue, but everything else, whether it be labor or other costs with the exception of fuel, have really been not what is causing us the same kind of issues that we have on the material side.

Got you. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll leave it there. Sure.

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. It's Maggie. I'm for Phil. Thanks for taking my questions. Sure. I go first. When you look at your volumes this quarter, you know, well ahead of completions, what are some of the areas of strength where you feel you're outperforming the market?

I mean, I think we're outperforming the market, you know, with pretty much all of our customers relative, and particularly on the multifamily side. And I would say, you know, in a large part, you know, even though the mixed headwind from the production builders has mitigated, we're still seeing very, very strong, you know, sales growth within the production builders. And I think we're continuing to do very well relative to the overall market. And I think that's a reflection of the quality of service that, you know, we're providing.

Okay, got it. And then I know we've talked a lot about fiberglass supply, and we do have some incremental supply coming on in the next few quarters, but how are you thinking about supply chains normalizing for some of the other products you mentioned, like spray foam and garage drawers that you're also, you know, seeing challenges with this year?

The other products, as I said earlier, we would have expected that they would have normalized by now, but they're just continuing to have significant issues. And as a consequence, now we would expect that those supply chains don't normalize until the back half of next year.

I'd say in one word, murky. Really. Because even when we're told that by a supplier that they've got something figured out or straightened around, it usually hasn't worked out. At least the way they had described to us that it would.

Yeah. Okay.

Thanks, guys.

Sure.

Our next question comes from the line of Denny's Clementine, please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning. This is Dennis Comanti of In4Key Fuse. Thank you for taking my questions. Appreciate it. So just to touch briefly on multifamily, same-branch sales growth. Looks like there was actually quite a bit of an acceleration this quarter against, even though it was like a slightly easier, a slightly easier ability to challenge income from the prior year than last quarter. And I think you mentioned there was a tailwind from high-rise growth. And I was curious as to whether you anticipate this tailwind lasting into 4K or even into 2022.

Yeah, we continue to feel good about the multifamily, same branch and multifamily overall sales growth. Our backlogs continue to be very strong in that business. I think some of the challenges we faced earlier in the year on a same branch basis with multifamily had to do with material supply issues and material supply constraints. And I think you're seeing that even in the Census Bureau, just looking at the weakness in completions recently on the multifamily side. So we feel good about that. There's certainly a tremendous amount of demand on the multifamily side, and backlogs there are elevated. And I would say that our backlogs are elevated at a higher level than the overall market as we continue to take market share in multifamily.

Great. Thank you. Very helpful. And then just one other one. If you could just comment on just the M&A pipeline for installers, where do you see valuations at this current point in time? Do you feel like they're running above the lower at your current expectations? Thank you.

They're not inconsistent at all. I mean, for any real substantive way, I suppose on average from what we've historically paid, they've maybe up a little bit. And I think, honestly, our expectation probably is is that they would be up a little bit in this environment. So really it's pretty much same thing.

And I would say, you know, the pipeline is very robust. We've had a very robust year. We've acquired almost a little over $139 of revenue so far. And we don't think we're done for the year.

Okay, great. Thank you. Sure.

And our next question comes from the line of Ken Zinner with KeyBank Capital Management. Please proceed with your question.

Morning, everybody. Good morning. Jeff, I wonder if we could just take a step back here. I mean, kind of like the best of times and the worst of times in the sense that demand's high, supply's tight. And I'm just thinking about, you know, you've talked about everyone's obviously focused on incremental as soon as you can't recover your input cost effectively. And you're calling that out as it relates to the hard materials for fiberglass, but it seems the message today has been more, or if you could quantify it, I mean, it's not just fiberglass, right? It's steel items. It's other items that you can't get that visibility on. So I guess my first question is, you know, as this is unfolding, does that change how you think about these total take, if you will, the process that you've been pursuing in terms of, you know, ancillary products? And how is that changing your bidding as you think to next year, realizing you don't expect these, you know, bottlenecks to shift anytime soon? You know, you have a lot of bids that you need to lay out. for next year, right? If that's still going to be the case, how are you changing your behavior?

Well, it definitely does not, the environment does not change kind of our 20-some-year-old strategy. And we still believe that's absolutely the right course to pursue. You know, and I guess another blanket statement would be that, you know, all things, you know, come to pass. And so, you know, we have always, I'm realizing that we have to get on the phone once a quarter and talk about what happened in that prior quarter, we're still running a marathon, honestly, and the long haul and our strategy we think is still the right strategy to pursue. And again, maybe not on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but ultimately even a rising price environment on those other products is something that we can get on top of. It's a little bumpy getting on top of it sometimes because of the lack of notice or some other relative calamity that ends up in your lap from a supply perspective. but ultimately we will get on top of it. And they're very much, you know, contributory in terms of both take per house and then ultimately, as we've said on a lot of calls before too, you know, from kind of a net margin perspective, they end up kind of being good products for us to install like everything else, you know, like fiber nuts and, you know, our basically main insulation products.

Right, and I guess I was looking maybe a little more – and I guess a marathon versus a quarter. I'm just wondering if, right, with these inflationary pressures still persisting, and obviously everyone focuses on the fiberglass side for all sorts of reasons, but it sounds as though your net – you know, if we think about net pricing – It sounds like you're actually behind on net pricing more in the other products than fiberglass. Is that a proper interpretation of your comments about inflation visibility?

Yeah, I would agree. That is a proper interpretation. You know, as much as you'd like to have a sales – I mean – Let's say we are a profit-driven business, right, on purpose, and we don't really talk about sales with managers, et cetera, with regional presidents. We talk about profitability. And as much as you'd like to convince a salesperson to look into a crystal ball about where material pricing is going to be and, therefore, what the selling price needs to be in the future when that future is murky and unknown – It's not a terribly, even with encouragement, you want them to do that, you still, you're sitting there doing margin calculations and kind of net profit around individual jobs. And without the insight into exactly what's going to happen, it's harder to get on top of that. And that's the reality.

Thank you.

Sure.

And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Jeff Edwards for his closing remarks.

Thank you for your questions, and I look forward to our next quarterly call. Thank you.

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.