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spk03: Shalom to everyone, thank you for your attention. Welcome to the next meeting of the ICA Zoom to summarize the Arab Spring and the year 2023 as a whole. As with every conversation, we invite you to ask questions during the Q&A session of the Zoom. Anyone who is willing to send a question, she is a member of the financial services committee, she knows the addresses on WhatsApp. Anyone who wants to open the line, come and sign with me at the handrail. With us today on the conversation, Aviv Tzoler, the President and CEO of ICA, and Aviram Lavs, the CEO of KSATIM. Before I take the floor to Raviv, I would like to note that except for the story data, all the data and the results that will be recorded in the future talks include risks and uncertainty. The company's results will not change in a positive way and will cause changes according to the company's investment and its decisions. I now hand over the floor to Raviv.
spk07: Raviv, please. Thank you, Oded, and best wishes to everyone. We are excited to update you on the annual and quarterly results. Let's start with the general one. All in all, prices of 7.5 billion dollars a year, with 1.8 billion dollars per year. We continue to focus on creating the required revenue, a strong 1.6 billion revenue, a revenue of 0.8 billion, completely in line with our plans. The revenue allocated to the pension is 55 cents, from which we have divided half as a dividend. The dividend rate is close to 5%, and we continue to lead the industry in the dividend rate. In terms of our plans for recovery and recovery, we have actually completed them in the third quarter. With the tough spirit, I don't know what it's called, of the war, we decided to take the road with another stage in the emergency plan, and Biran will talk about it later. But it's recovery that we actually advanced from next year, and we feel that we will continue in this direction. Of course, we have all kinds of challenges during the war. You know that because we joined you. Basically, the biggest challenge is people with disabilities. Right now, about 70% have recovered from disabilities. So our challenges in supply, production, and so on, no longer exist, or exist on the lines. What remains, of course, is the Red Sea, the issue of lines, which is not only our challenge, but everyone's challenge. On the other hand, it is not only a challenge, but it will also lead, probably, to easy prices. We can already see that this is happening, and it can happen in a set. If there is no change in the situation, of course, the change in the situation can be relatively quick. Regarding the long-term view of the trade, if we look at the past three years, we see that all our prices have returned to the normal trade after the end of last year. The weakness in the last year was in the industrial sector, where the profit margins are very high. So when we lost profit there, and we split in prices and in profit and loss in other bonds, then in the end we had a loss in profit for the nation of 2021, and of course we hope to fix it very quickly. You can see here the rate, a very strong, continuous rate, due to the rise and fall in the recurring rate. In the first place, if we look at the three years, we see that the $800 million is the average rate of the free rate in these three years. The cap is also relatively stable in these years, and therefore, the difference between the medical rate and the free rate is relatively constant. So if we go back to the industrial line, here in the BROM sector, as you know, it's weak in the electronics and construction markets. First of all, we see a certain return in electronics. In construction, we see a much higher demand, and we also expected that. First of all, we are currently... We are focusing on the strategy of aiming for a maximum production in our existing long-term trade. In other words, we are taking back the market share. It is good for us to be strong against markets that are weaker and are struggling to survive in the current economic crisis. We, of course, have the advantage of lower interest rates in the Gulf, and we are saving it to increase the market share. We saw that in the third quarter we reached some kind of drop, some kind of drop. The fourth quarter is already rising. We see that the EBITDA rose by 30% between the third quarter and the fourth quarter. It should also be noted that there was a very strong year in the flow rates. After all, there was a C both in prices and in profitability. page down. When we look at the phosphate allocation, after all, we had a strong year, we are going to increase the package of specialties on a commodity basis to this level, which we have already reached in our program, where we are at almost 70% specialty, and we basically said that in the second quarter we are at 70% specialty, so the allocation is provided by special products and the commodities we sell. The commodities we sell are the rest of the production in the capacity we offer, and we offer all of our capacity. In terms of food, the markets were strong, the prices held. We continue to sell material for batteries. Our plan for the long-term market for the world of cathodic material for batteries is progressing well. In our joint agreement with China, we also saw strong results, and we have also established two new commercial businesses in the field of specialties, and we continue in this direction. First of all, we see a return to the numbers of 2020 and 2021, both in terms of prices and in terms of profitability. EBITDA is 24%. I did not note that in the industrial line, with all that we had in the year of Sheffel, we were at 23% EBITDA. not only when we think that we are on the rise. On the subject of phosphate, there was also a slightly different demand for phosphate doses in Brazil at the end of the year, so we increased prices a bit from 2024 to 2023. So, the same amount of $20.5 million went from 2024 to 2023. This is one of the reasons we did a little better than we expected in the fourth quarter. In terms of the stock, the stock prices have settled. In fact, the prices in the fourth quarter were very similar to the third quarter, and so was the stock market, very similar to the stock market of the third quarter. It should be noted that in December and January, there were actually low prices in Brazil. This is not the case in Brazil, and the prices and demand have relaxed. But it should be noted that in recent days, prices have started to rise in Brazil. We see a strong rise in the market for buyers. There are high demand for trade, and it looks very positive at the moment. If you ask them a few weeks ago if we see a rise in prices, they would probably say no. But in recent days, we see a really strong rise. And considering what is happening in the Red Sea, we don't see We don't see prices falling in the east, so this is good news in the future regarding the flood. First of all, we sold more than we produced. We sold everything we could, everything we could, until the end. Of course, we suffered a bit from the war, mainly from the indignation of people with disabilities. First of all, we lost tens of thousands of tons of production, which is not little. because our complaints in the process were such that when systems fell, it took more time to fix them, as some experts said, we did the best we could to give them limits and we got out of it, and it's really one-off, it shouldn't happen. If we could have added this to the profit, we would have added this to the profit, but it is not acceptable to add to the profit issues that cannot be measured accurately. But we definitely went through a not simple test, to hold people in more long-term security. to deal with special repairs that the experts for these special repairs did not have. And I am very pleased with our system, that we managed to manage, and everyone was approved, and everyone was given a hand. And really, this is behind us, and regarding this, for now, at least, the other screens are not yet opened, so we do not need to worry about the future. We also have a second year completion of the profitability of the magnesium business. I told you that after 26 years, this is the first year of profit in the past year, so we also spent the year on magnesium. And I can also say that we finished selling all the results for the year 2024 of the magnesium, so the magnesium also looks like we will have a third year of profitability, and that's very promising. In terms of prices, as I said, the second and fourth quarters were stable. Of course, we increased the list of European prices significantly, especially for Brazil. Right now, we see the price a little lower than it was in the fourth quarter, but we see that it is on the rise because there is no market in which prices are currently falling, and there are directions of rise. From the point of view of the growing solutions, the special changes, here we did not exactly follow our plans in the fourth quarter. The two main reasons, one is of course the war, which lowered the demand and the ability to sell in Israel, which is relatively small numbers. But what else happened is, due to air pollution, the application window in Europe Excuse me. In this context, I will soon mention that we have also signed a contract for this ship in Brazil, a contract that we very much wanted and are very excited about, which helps us to increase the production capacity in the field of biologic additives for printing. We also received a briefing today in parallel, so you can see a little bit more in detail. We were able to produce more than a million tons of polysulfate in our warehouse in Bulbi, one of our goals, and we also increased market share in Brazil and China. In China, our market share is still very small, but we are doing well. And in Brazil, our market share is large, and we are continuing to increase it, and our activity there is doing very well. We have also managed to establish new products that are still small in terms of sales and profit, but they will grow in the near future and we feel comfortable. Regarding existence, we have really exploded with many achievements this year. I am very proud of each and every one of these achievements, but I will not comment on all of these things. I do want to note that we managed to reduce our supply chain by another 4% this year, which is already 22% since the year of the foundation. Our external commitment is 30% to 20-30%, so it seems that we will reduce it. And it goes directly to us according to the programs. In Israel, the hardest part for us Because the plans we have in Israel are very difficult to get all the regulations, the profit institutions are very, very slow in Israel. I hope it will change, and then if we don't have a backbone, it will rise less. There is definitely potential for it. It also does us good, because our products, as long as they are classified as green, it helps us with the customers, especially with the special products. In addition, I would like to point out the upgrade that MSCI has made to our DIRUG, our existing DIRUG. We have moved to Triple B. We want this year to reach level A. We are definitely worthy of it, and we are in very, very small gaps there. We must also note this year that the interest rate range, due to the existence that we took in the first part of the year, of 1.55 billion dollars, which replaced the old interest rate range, which was 1 billion dollars, we increased our financial capacity, we did it perfectly, before the difficulties that were during the year in the markets. And now that the rates are falling and we are creating sponsorships, and we have the opportunity of purchasing in the market, and with the growth of new businesses and the establishment of new stores and so on, it has put us in a very good position. In terms of business development, I told you just now that we sold a purchase in Brazil, There are many things on the table. It is very encouraging to see that we have succeeded in such a short period of time to receive the first decision in the cadence of Uri Perlman, who joined us as the leader of M&A. We are also continuing to advance the solutions of our AI, especially through Our subsidiary, Agmatics, the startup that we founded within ICL, which is now a global leader in field trials and the use of quantum intelligence, and maybe in the future we will be able to carry out synthetic field trials, without even being in the field itself. And, of course, we took advantage of this year to establish our new products through new partnerships, distribution partnerships, such as our fruit-mag product, which deals with the maintenance of fruit and vegetables. We signed with European Mobile and put it in a good position for next year. We have already announced the establishment of our pilot operation for cathodic material. The goal is to make a qualification for future products, for the storage of batteries of our customers, which we are still dealing with, in order to turn our customers into manufacturers for them. And this allows us to advance our research and development capabilities, our ability to work together with our customers in order to adapt the product to their needs. And we are trying to establish this center in less than a year, that is, to complete it before the end of 2014. And if so, it will be a significant achievement, and it will put us in a leading position in the United States, at least in this area. We continue, of course, to be in contact with customers. We have already notified the first customer. We have already signed with the second customer. I assume that things will continue according to the plan. In general, we are building the company in the direction of two very significant goals. One trend is related to environmental protection, which is becoming a more and more central issue, as there is more population and less land where it is possible to lose the land. Today, we are consuming, according to research we did with a foreign aid company, an average of 400 million people every day. i.e. our food, and our food products, which provide food, and provide food supplies, allow 5% of the world population to live. And when you, as owners of our businesses, look at our work, remember that in the end, every employee of our company got up in the morning to eat 5% of the world population every day. And you, as owners, are partners in this and can enjoy the industry, but even more so the fruits, because this is a trend that is growing and gaining importance, and there are not many companies in the world that are able to adapt to these data. Also in the matter of energy saving, we are talking about a significant global trend of the transition to green electricity, We intend to enjoy this movement and do everything we can to make it happen, both in the field of biochemicals and biochemicals, as well as in the field of electrical equipment, and also in the field of air pollution. But not only that, but also in the field of phosphate, where we are promoting the use of cathode materials, and we are becoming a leading producer in the United States. And of course, we are also currently organizing for Europe together with partners, and when we can talk about it, we will talk about it. The idea is to prepare the company in such a way that it will have the solutions, the manufacturing companies, the ability to sell, and mainly the ability to cooperate with customers in research and development and in product development, so that the inflection points of these platforms will arrive, And we see these things happening in the 20th, 26th and 27th. When there will really be a large number of requests on the part of the IDF that we are ready from all directions to serve these requests, to take the market share and to create leadership. That is where we are aiming, and that is what we are doing, so that we can manage the daily business Contrary to our competitions, we are also involved in programs and events, and every time we come to talk about revenue, we mainly want to prove to you that we are doing everything we can to advance our programs and stand in the long-term programs where the real value is created. And here I will stop and just say, as always, thank you to all our employees and managers, especially at this time, who have done above and beyond in levels that are very difficult to describe, also to make sure that we are in the design plans, also to maintain the social status, also to volunteer in the community and do everything possible to help those in need. The society did not give up on any effort. We are very, very focused in the south, and everything that happens in the south affects us mentally and emotionally, and we did not stop doing everything we could to help our communities. and our employees really enjoyed it, and I'm very proud of that, that in addition to businesses, we were a very significant factor in the State of Israel, in getting out of the terrible pain that we are all in, and in trying to help those in need. In the end, we are one nation and one state, and we represent Israel in the world, everywhere. And they do it with great pride and with tremendous strength that comes also from our industry in the south. And here I want to pass the mic to Aviram who will focus on the financial issues.
spk06: Please, Aviram.
spk05: Okay, good morning everyone. Thank you, Aviv. I will take this to some additional data that will be in front of us, and at the end, the last slide, which I assume will open the questions, will also be our guidelines for the year 2024. So first of all, in terms of the business environment, the macro environment, very significant things are happening in the world today on the side of inflation. In general, there is a decrease in inflation over time. We can have a full conversation here, we won't get into it, but inflation is the main thing, inflation as a whole. But in the end, we see, above all, stability, with a certain decrease over time. In terms of the rest of the cities that operate in the different geographies that we work in, they are usually quite high, but they are at a high level. and these are things that we all know. Gradually, we are seeing in parts like this and others, that planting is returning to the world. Of course, the difference is very big between the geographic areas, and this, of course, has an impact. ICL plays a role on the entire globe. There are places where there is healthier planting, there are places where there is less. As far as the construction market is concerned, We see the beginning of a rebound, especially in the Western world. Of course, everything I said here about China is not entirely true. There are other problems. In our country, it is, above all, a pretty bad situation. In terms of agricultural prices, they are at a fairly stable level. which is located somewhere in the middle, within the integral, at a high historical level. Of course, they are not in the peak when they were in the mid-2022s, but they are mostly at a fairly high level. What is special about this is, of course, the rice. which is rising in price for various reasons. In terms of the sentiment, let's say the farmers' mood, this is very, very important because it indicates their desire for inputs, for their growth. After all, they are in a good place. We must remember that this sentiment is influenced by many, many elements, that the pollinators, the pollination is only part of them, Some are still in a fairly stable trend, but with a big decline. Some, like phosphate, show an increase at the end of the year. It continues to 24% in one way or another. And in terms of yield, after a significant period of time, they have dropped. They have returned to rise. Many of this is thanks and congratulations to geopolitics. In short, you can see here the inflation rates and the interest rates. You can see that those who are above, especially in the interest rates, note that this is Brazil, this is a significant figure. Brazil is about 20% higher than the prices of ICL. By the way, Brazil is also somewhere between 15% to 20% of the total crop of agricultural products in the world. The Brazilian currency, for example, for a long time has been holding the capital at a very high level. And by doing so, as you can see, the inflation has dropped very quickly. This indicates that the real market is stable. This has caused a lot of damage in the last two years, in contrast to what Brazil had historically. This, of course, also has a significant impact. I'm looking at the bottom left side, the industrial plants are actually located at the beginning of the harvest and also at the beginning of the construction in the United States. If I go on, we talked about the central crops, which are wheat, rice, wheat and soy, and overall we see that most of them in the decline are high, The sentiment, you see the beginning of the improvement, you see here two more things about the inputs and also about the price of the leads. If I go on to the energy sector, we actually see from the top left that, after all, the increase in electricity prices is increasing and will continue to rise. in the coming years. There is a little volatility around this regression line, but overall, we see a very significant rise here, which is expected in the coming years. As a result of this, we see the three inputs that are relevant and that ICL is in them. One is the growth over the years, which is expected in the white curve, which you see on the right, At the top, the growth in the LFP-based cells, which is the main category that we deal with. And on the bottom left, we also see the growth in the main material that contains the cathode component in the cell, which is the MAP. And here, of course, very significant growth is expected. If we try to go for a moment, briefly, between the results of 2023 and 2022, which of course was a one-off peak year, we see that in fact, you see on the left side, that in all our stocks, in front of the 22nd price, we are in a decline. If we look at the magnitude of this decline, we see on the right side, we see a certain quantitative decline, and a very sharp decline, In the prices, there is a decrease of over 2.62 billion dollars, which is almost a picture of what we saw in addition in the year 2022 itself. If we look at the EBITDA between 2022 and 2023, on the left side, we see a decrease in all the bonds, and again, in fact, the total decrease is evident, you can see it on the right side, from the price decrease, the price decrease, of course, It has a permanent impact on the prices and on the EBITDA line. The rest of the factors were largely good for the society. Of course, I've already spoken about it, but in terms of the alternatives, they were all good for the society. Among the rest, the reduction of the shekel, the strengthening of certain currencies against the dollar and so on. In terms of raw materials, of course, a better situation. Of course, here it was very important, and the company actually sold the supplies that were collected in the years of 1912 and 1922. This is a very important figure when it enters the 24th century, in fact, without a trace of precious treasures, and this means that at the exchange rate, it actually builds its assets. This issue was definitely important, it brought us parts of the 23rd century, and it will no longer bring us to our joy in the 24th century. If I continue, in terms of the quarter, the fourth quarter itself, we also see here, on the left side, the decrease in prices, from 2.1 billion to 1.7 billion, a very similar figure to what it was at the annual level, and we again see on the right side, the increase in quantity this time, in the fourth quarter of the year, as well as in the West, also in the BROM, also in other parts, we actually increase in quantity in our prices, but of course, What takes us down is the prices, after the price, which are in the equivalent of about $600 million, and in translation to EBITDA, as I said, on the left side is a similar picture in the annual level, and in the surgery we see again the impact of the quantitative increase, which is added to about $86 million, and on the contrary, the price drop that caused more than 600 billion dollars, while the rest of the factors are positive in quarter four. If we look specifically at the opening, what we see here is that from the left side, the productivity rate of the company, especially in the salt sea, continues to be very good. foreign foreign foreign foreign You brought us here, you know the situation. The profit margin of the company on the left is excellent, the best profit margin. It also has the ability to supply the largest inflows. On the other hand, of course, there are many markets that have joined. The profit margin is much less good. They have focused on the price of the price when the market demands are limited. During the year, the company started the year with an increase in high-price values of value and volume. We understood that we needed to change this, we changed it already in the middle of the year, as Raviv has done, and we, in the second half of the year, are selling quantities that are close to our full supply, and take market share from our markets. In terms of efficiencies, we have already implemented one significant program in 2023, and we are currently in the second phase, which will start in July 2023 and will enter into the year 2024, in which we are taking significant steps, both in North America and in terms of proteins, which we are actually doing there, a new organization of businesses in North America and also in Europe. In terms of the IP, the IP integration, we are focusing, under one measure, on the development of this, and we are working on a plan for a planned launch that will reduce the company's high costs. A number of financial data, we were able to reduce the annual sales and general sales price by about 8%, which is very significant. We are producing cash consistently and in a good way. As Raviv has established, we have almost 2 billion dollars in bonds and we have a high demand for almost 2 billion dollars. We have a low ratio of 1.1 to EBITDA. And we have a high dividend share of 50% of the profit on a quarterly basis. As I said, now we come to the last slide before the questions. where we made a certain change, and I want to share it with you. In fact, we look at our company within 24 and say, we have two very clear categories here. We have one category of the opening, of the asset, where, as we saw in the last two years, there are very significant movements in the price of the asset, on the EBITDA that comes from the POTASH, but to point out that we estimate that we will sell somewhere between 4.6 to 4.9 million tons. When we, at the end of the day, when we look at the price level, we are only in February. As the Arab people said, Brazil is not in the year. All in all, recently we see that there is stability, and to some extent, there is also an increase. we say that the best indication at this time is to take a closer look at what was the current price range in quarter four of the year, which of course gives some indication. Later, we will see where it goes. We also note in the sensitivity test that at $20, less or more, in the price of a ton, can lead to a plus or minus of $100 million. In fact, a very significant number. This calculation is quite simple, you can try it yourself, but it is clear here that the risk here can be substantial, and therefore this way of building guidance It makes us more careful, and this is in addition to what large companies have done with us in the past, that to some extent, they are also major sellers in the market. Regarding everything that is not cash, here we give a clear guidance that the expected EBITDA should be between 0.7 billion dollars, to the point of 9 billion dollars per year in 2024, and the last figure is that we estimate that the mass education of the society is expected to be around 30%. This is a number that has a lot of impact on it, certain conditions have been established, but overall, we are already in the last year and a half Since we came to the decision of Shishinsky, we came with this number, and we are, after all, entering this number one way or another in the rankings, as long as they fall, and they continue to give this number for the year 2024. So here I will stop. Thank you very much for listening, and we will open it to questions. Thank you very much.
spk03: Thank you, Raviv. Thank you, Aviram. We will start. Okay, let's start with Yaron Avraham from Bank HaPoalim. Yaron, can you open the line?
spk04: Alan, can you hear me? Yes, Yaron. First of all, I'm Yaron Friedman. Yaron Avraham is from Temet Bank.
spk03: Good morning to everyone.
spk04: I have a lot of questions, but I don't want to take up everyone's time. I'll focus on the main ones. First of all, regarding, how do you call it, mass hoarding. Tama, anireti shaluta haovala baribon, if I'm not mistaken, is 5 million dollars distributed. To me, that sounds very little. So, I'm curious to get a little more details on how much it's really possible to invest, let's say, every month of such a situation.
spk07: This is a good question, Yaron. Regarding the lines, first of all, factually, despite all the difficulties, we managed to withdraw all the money in the last quarter, and it is true for today, also in the first quarter. The driving expenses rise not only in the Red Sea, they rise across the board. Because of this, I said that we assume that if it continues, even if it is a very short period, it will affect the customers. And therefore, I do not think that it would be the right answer to say that it is another $5 million, because it could be another $5 million, but it is a relative assumption in contrast to the impact it could have if it began to affect the prices. So it is a matter of time. As long as it continues, on the one hand, we will have a greater headache, On the other hand, the prices for the customers have increased. Now, the prices will rise also because of matters of interest and also because of psychological reasons. Especially if we decide to take it around Africa, which then will increase the supply times and of course will also increase the shipping costs. You still have quite a long way to go, don't you?
spk04: We are currently in the last quarter and also in the current quarter.
spk07: including today, they extract all our supplies from where they are needed. That is, about a third of our supplies go to the east, they come out of the Red Sea, right now. Where we are surrounding Europe is mainly in other products, which are mainly containers, Brom and other products, where the amount of transport is relatively low. And it doesn't have much impact on the customers. As long as we get the orders on time, even if the time is extended, because it's something like 16 additional days, then we manage to organize ourselves in accordance with the customers. Over time, it can affect our iso-tank output, because there's a circle that... If this happens, it will lead again to rising prices in the Middle East. Because the majority of the world, about 70% of the world, comes from the Gulf. The Jordanians, by the way, have even more difficult problems than we do. Because many billionaires don't want to get there, and they only have one option, and that is to enter Aqaba. We always have an option, which we lead with Eilat, to also lead with Ashdod or Haifa.
spk04: I understand. Another question. You both talked about the idea of taking market shares in the IP. What is the question here? After all, you are the most profitable player. If we talk about the strategy of Netashub, which is to say, the price calculation, I imagine, and then what does it mean regarding the future?
spk07: Without this activity, the gradual return of requests creates increases in prices. We are currently providing the additional request, because in the current price, it is very difficult for some of our competitors to survive. And so, in terms of value, it's more convenient for us to maximize over time than to maximize the near future. And that's where it comes from. I mean, you don't... I'm trying to understand, is that what you're saying, that you're going to reduce the prices, or... It means that we're going to do everything we can to make sure that the prices will rise very gradually, instead of rising in one place, and that it will be easy for our markets to stay in the short term. That's the point.
spk04: So first of all, both in China and Brazil there are relatively high fill-ups now.
spk07: Contrary to other places, in Jordan there is a very low flood rate, in Europe there is a low flood rate, in the United States it is starting now, in a few days, the father's season, which is a very, very important season. Regarding China, you will hear soon, it depends on the issue of the Red Sea. I will explain. For example, in the last few months, we are not paying any more taxes because it is less expensive for us. In the current prices, including driving expenses, it is less expensive for us. Now, how do the Odins solve the problem? Very simply, they buy more from the Russians and Belarusians. But the water that the Russians and Belarusians, because it needs more water, they need to cover both Europe and Africa now. Their expenses have gone up very, very, very, very. And so, if we don't solve the problem in the Red Sea, what will happen is that when Nutrient comes... to trade with the Chinese, because they don't have the trade with the Chinese. So if the Russians and Belarusians are in a situation where prices can no longer drop, then the Nutrients will be very strong in the trade. Now, part of the fact that the Chinese have fully occupied is because they are wise and understand the situation, and that's why they agreed to it. Again, it all depends on time. In the end, we are not in the trade room. Also, the previous time, by the way, We were disappointed. We were disappointed with the bad results of the past year. The previous year we were disappointed with the good results, so everything can happen. It is very, very dependent currently on the rates of the tariffs. Currently, the current price of China is at the limit of the liquidity that it carries by train from Belarus and Russia to China, and it is below the liquidity that it carries around Europe and Africa in units. And therefore, if the story of the Red Sea does not work out and the price of the transportation does not decrease, then it will fall under the price of China. Maybe you can say a word about the requests? Yes, and regarding the requests, then... The places where we need to make a significant demand, which will actually determine the overall dynamics, together with the market, with the issue of supply chains, are the demands in Brazil and the United States. Now, at the moment, I can say that in recent days there have been very positive signs. One of the positive signs is that we had something like 60,000 tons in what is called an open price. That is to say, it is calculated according to the prices of different professional advertisements, when the customer can increase the price whenever he wants. And when do they do this? They do this when the customer thinks that the price is going to drop, and when the customer thinks that the price is going to rise, then you can make deals of this kind. And really, I don't remember if it was last week or at the end of last week, within two days, all the buyers around 60,000, within two days, closed the price according to the advertisements. They wanted to get the prices before the upticks that they are seeing. Now, if it was just one customer, it was less of a sign, but because it is a number of customers in one unit and customized customers that lead the market, so we see it as a very positive sign. If there really is a good application year in the United States, as Nutrien and Mosaic think there will be, then the demands will be very high. In any case, we are seeing demands of more than 68 million tons a year compared to 1965, in the year of 23, and 60 in the year of 22. For several reasons. One, because prices have dropped. And two, there is a great lack of nutrients in the land because two years of Aplikatsiya Chilkit, yatsa achsha mechkar she bememutsa, a nutrient deficiency, a hosser sheyeh shele shlagan ba karakaot ba olam, 44% ze nispar metoraf. Avshar noladad kam evshaar nimtoach et a karka, aval ze bahur sheyeh pitzoy mesuyam ha-shana al shanim kotmon. Lachen, a bikush tsefuy bichol mikra liyot chazak. that geopolitics, including the Red Sea, and it's not just the Red Sea, it's also Panama. Panama is currently leading only less than 50% of the population due to a problem of sea level. So, apart from the Red Sea and Panama, all global geopolitics can play a very important role this year. But without geopolitics, there is the demand, and the question is how the suppliers, and especially the Canadians, will manage their policy.
spk04: um
spk05: It's not a big company. It has a relatively low value for money. But it's a very important value. Because, in fact, the field of biologicals, after many years of not so much progress, hype about it has existed for many, many years. but only in recent years have we seen a significant increase in biological use. In all aspects, both in the protection of the plant, and in the better uptake of nutrients, also in the area of higher growth, and this area is slowly becoming more and more accessible. This is also an area that we talked about before, which is actually lucrative, and players from both the world of printing and the world of plant protection are actually playing in this field. And the number one country both in the global agriculture and in the adoption of the biologicals, is Brazil. Therefore, for a long period of time, we have been trying to enter the main door to this topic of biologists in Brazil. There were many different projects, some very, very important, And here, the company has the opportunity to create a significant platform that also our purchasing power, which is very significant in Brazil, can deal with, which will in fact serve as the basis for our biological effort in Brazil. And from here, the great importance, which is far beyond the actual size of the company. By the way, this is an area that is being developed, which will become an area that will grow to $20 billion and more in five years. Now, these are very, very high numbers, because for years this area has been rotating between two to three and reached $4 billion, no more than that. That's it, more or less. There are no additional transitions that you want in this regard.
spk07: I might add that we actually have innovative capabilities and R&D and even investments in leading startups in the field of the future developments of Biologicals, and we have the best price selection in Brazil. And what was missing for us was expertise in the production of products of this type and a suitable manufacturing capacity. And they received both expertise and manufacturing capacity, and additional purchasing power for what we have and from which they offer. So the synergies here in the business are very, very high, and so we really create a lot more value than the value of the purchasing value. By the way, this is after we were forced, it's not pleasant to say, to complete another business because of a loan. Therefore, it was very important for us not to waste time, and we did it our way, with a lot of luck, and we achieved the opportunity.
spk04: Thank you very much, friends.
spk03: Thank you. Thank you. The next question, we're opening the line to Elafrid from the National Bank.
spk01: Good morning. Yaon closed some of my questions, but I would like to do a follow-up, two follow-ups on the ice. First, to give a few numbers on what is going on, at least in the foreign publications and in the prices, they really talked about a price increase of $280 for the ice. Haim ze mechir she beitsem lo lokeh b'chushbon neta ta'abura? Ki ze loor, ma she shamatim mekem, ze nishma meyod meyod namuch. On the other hand, the last price of $308, which was mentioned as a reference, like, if it's possible to relate to prices that, from your point of view, and to note, if... Just why?
spk07: Why is it $280? I just don't understand.
spk01: $280 for the ton of ice, that's what foreign analysts quoted, and also all kinds of publications, as some kind of... Regarding what? Regarding the ton of ice.
spk07: No, but regarding what? Regarding the expected price?
spk01: The expected Chinese price. I probably don't hear you well. Yes, Chinese, Chinese, in China. And on the other hand, there are publications that say that at least it's $308, the last price. And how to relate to the driving force in light of what you said? It's not included there. Ah, it's not included there, so that's what I understood.
spk07: Now, just to give you an idea, yes, so in the first quarter, because I don't know how it developed, but if for us the cost was $41-$42 to bring China to a tone in the first quarter, then for the Russians and Belarusians it was $95. so that you understand the significance of surrounding Europe and Africa. So we, from our point of view, from a logistical point of view, we are in an Egyptian situation. Therefore, as soon as we don't pay, it affects the market.
spk05: I also want to mention that China is up to 15% of our annual prices. China is not in control of everything, and there is a very large variance between the prices in Europe, which they lead, And they are almost 100 dollars higher than the United States, which is around $50 more. Brazil, which is currently, now that you're talking about Brazil, where prices are not the same, and they were low, but they operate like the West, between China and India, and Southeast Asia. That is, you have to look, and you want, in the end, to scale. You have to make a price for geography. Price, weight, and geography.
spk01: Yes, first of all, of course, but simply, it was very important to hear from you that all these price ranges do not include at all the price range. No, this is the final price for everything. I understand. Okay, so another question that is a little technical. On the 21st century, You give the 1st and 2nd places in the price chart, but in the cost chart, you don't say where the 1st and 2nd places are. In my opinion, and I assume it's true who the 1st and 2nd places are, or if you want to mark its geography, where are those competitions located? In the part between Israel and Israel?
spk07: It's more complex, because the Canadians that I'm referring to are also partially on our left and also on our right. That is, part of their creation is less expensive and part of it is more expensive. Their crop is more expensive than ours.
spk01: Yes, but in the coming year, excuse me, if Mosaic closes Colosseum, I guess, then... No, no, even the other properties, I mean, they have one property that is especially good, that is significant, that is to our left, but really close to us.
spk07: The one that is most to the left is the European East, it's between Russia and Russia, and it comes from the labor cost. In addition, their logistics cost is the most important.
spk01: But they still have, at least they had, the transportation in trains. Yes, but the transportation in trains is expensive, which is not to be confused.
spk07: That is, today they are on the border of their citizenship. They also created... Also in trains? Yes.
spk01: Also in trains?
spk07: In China, they are on the border of their citizenship.
spk01: Okay, thank you. I don't want to talk about that, because I have a few more questions. Regarding Europe and Spain, it's still just a matter of time. How do you see this year and the next year in terms of quantities and sales? In short, the process, where does it stand today?
spk07: So in Spain, I have some good news, that the year started very well. In the first two months of the year, we are at a rate of about 900,000 per year. And our plan is to be at around 850,000 to 900,000 per year, which is much more than the last year. The main reason for this is that we made a decision a year and a half ago to run in the direction where there is a more extensive production in Ashlag. We are not there yet. We're not there yet, but we'll be there by the end of the year. But because we got closer to it, we're already at higher percentages, and it's already being expressed today, and it's not expected to change during the year. So if we didn't have any problems, because last year we had a very big problem, we had... a terrible disaster in March. So, due to the fact that we have terrible disasters, it is expected that we will be much better in Spain, so I will take that into account. In fact, the difference between 4.6 and 4.9 is mainly the uncertainty of how far we will go in Spain. I understand. Right now we are optimistic.
spk01: It's good to hear. Now, two more questions, not big ones. One, the level of investments that are expected this year, maybe you've dealt with it and discussed it, and as a vector.
spk05: Our investment level has risen to a certain extent, up to 100 million dollars between 2023 and 2024. A significant part of that is in the LFP project, around the LFP in the United States. Overall, if we look at the company's investment level in what is defined as maintenance, which is maintenance of the existing, we do not rise. and we are less or more at a low level, maybe even a little less than that. In ecology, there is a certain increase, relatively moderate, mainly because of the increase in investments in our crop, our growth.
spk01: Excuse me, but I came out of focus a bit.
spk05: In numbers... In numbers, you need to add up to 100 million dollars more in 2024 compared to 2023.
spk01: So, thank you very much. I hope that I will leave the presentation to other people, and I will return to you at the end. Thank you very much.
spk03: Thank you very much. Thank you. We will take as many questions as we can from the Zoom Q&A. Regarding Campotex, it is said that they do not have the main flow rate in the Red Sea. Why? Because the price of the ice will rise. It is stated here that the flow rate will increase, and not the opposite.
spk07: Yes, I think I was referring to that. That is, when Nutrien comes to Masar Matan, he wants to maximize his profit. It is true that he can supply at the same prices, but there are opportunities. As soon as the Russians and Belarusians are on their border, then of course the Canadians know it and all of Masar Matan will act differently. So it's true that Campotex has less control of the Red Sea, but let's not get confused. What happens in the Red Sea also affects their transportation. Not like who comes from the other side, but it certainly affects them as well.
spk05: By the way, both of them say that they don't increase their capacity. Nutrien is talking about 14 million tons, and Mosaic is still increasing its capacity. He will look, he will follow the prices, and if it is not suitable for them... Last year, by the way, they said the opposite.
spk07: Last year, they said that they would increase, and in the end, they will not increase at all.
spk03: Okay, thank you. A follow-up question from Yaron Friedman from Bank of Poland. Regarding a technical question, he asks, what is the cost-effectiveness of Ashlaq among the 47 that we sell?
spk07: About 250,000 to 300,000.
spk05: It's a cost-effectiveness for the products. Yes. It's a cost-effectiveness for the next products that are expressed in the Going Solution.
spk07: That's the selling price. Ashlaq is a regular customer, but we use the products for the next products.
spk03: Okay, thank you.
spk00: I have two questions, so I'll ask one after the other. The first question is about the ice. You've already talked about it during the conversation, but still, I'd love to go a little deeper. In fact, you said in the article that you're watching in the red ice of the fourth quarter, or at the same rate, against the prices that have fallen since then. So the question is, where is the improvement? Is it in the increase, in the increase in quantity, or is it really that you're watching the price rise and return to 340, 350? Because At the moment, it's not the price, actually.
spk07: May I start and you finish? Please. So, the good thing about the Arab quarter is that its amount, the amount that I know of, is 1,170,000, which if you multiply by 4 is 4,750, which is more or less what is expected in the middle of the price that was given. So, in terms of the amounts, it's disappointing. From the price point of view, according to our survey, we were in the first quarter at $326, if I'm not mistaken, which is really lower. But, as I said, the prices in Brazil that were closed low are now rising. So we don't have much more information to give than that. We do have to pay attention that the first quarter was supposed to be a little less than this rate that we usually do in March or April, the annual rate in the SDOM. Which means that this is a quarter that we expect to have a rate of 1.5 million and not 1.5 million or 1.2 million. So, first of all, since the price in the first quarter that we see is close, and right now in the Aliyah. And because the amounts of deductions in the next year are supposed to be similar to the deductions of the fourth quarter, and remember once again that the fourth quarter and the third quarter were very similar results, so all kinds of things happen there in the middle, but in the end it's a good situation. I hope I answered.
spk00: I mean, Yaron, and I'm sorry, and you don't allow, also in terms of profitability, or...
spk07: Yes, but we did not enter our target, because these are low numbers, in contrast to the volatility in the price, which can be very, very significant. Just as we did not enter possible surprises. Temporary rise in driving prices, rise in energy prices, the north side, there are many positive things and many negative things that can happen.
spk05: By the way, Michal, one of the significant changes is the Sephardi. The cost position.
spk00: Yes, okay. Okay. Yes, okay, okay, so the second question, wait a minute, I want to clarify this again, if it's possible, because you're saying that so far the average was 326, but within the quarter we saw a drop, now you're saying we're seeing an increase in Brazil, and that's right, there's an increase in Brazil, But on the other hand, as Yaron said, if I remember correctly, in China and in India, especially in China, right now there is a great lack of awareness. So don't you have any fear that the prices there will rise? We always have a fear, no less than hope.
spk07: But that's exactly the beauty of this platform. That is, we give you all the information we have. If you think you want to be more expensive, then take a price of 326, take a lower price. We don't know more than our public what will happen today in the trade fair in China. And by the way, you know, in India, for example, we sold less than half of the amount of the year. It just didn't pay off for us. When you look at the results of the first quarter, you will see that we increased our interest rate in Europe and decreased in Brazil, because the prices were lower in Brazil. Now the prices are rising, so we will increase in Brazil. Probably not on the European account, but probably on the Chinese account. Maybe that will affect the prices in China.
spk00: And what is the extent of the change in the word? You can see that people, I also took it a bit to the extreme, but you can say, okay, we don't sell to China at all, we sell everything to Brazil.
spk07: Look, we don't have a lot of competition in Europe. So as long as the market gives us, we will increase the market share significantly in Europe this year. We already see that, if you noticed, in the fourth quarter, if you look at our growth compared to the competition, then from what does it mean that our competition dropped in the average price and we remained in the average price? We just increased our share in Europe, that's the main reason.
spk00: Yes, so you had a geographical change in the quarter, I understood, okay. Yes, because the market prices in the fourth quarter dropped, we just changed the quarter. Yes. Okay, so this is my second question. First of all, you gave the perspective of the different species within the specialties, but there is still an opportunity to give a little more direction regarding the species themselves, especially in plant solutions.
spk07: Yes, at IP we said that we will grow from quarter to quarter in a balanced way, because we increase quantities. In phosphate we need to be stable from quarter to quarter, and the basis of the fourth quarter is a good basis. In the growing solution, we'll see a significant improvement in the results, because all sorts of negative things that were this year, won't be this year, and we're seeing growth both in prices and in profitability.
spk00: What do you mean by all the negative parameters?
spk07: I mean that the destocking that was very significant this year, not only for us, but for the entire market, It won't happen next year, because we have removed our most precious fillings, and we are currently operating in a market where prices are rising. They are rising in a moderate way, but they are rising. We were able to include in the previous year part of our production breaks, so we can produce more. We have made a shortage of products, which this year will be enjoyed by requests after they left the market last year. And our operating and pricing power has also strengthened, and the budget cuts have been included in the results, so we can see that there will be a dramatic improvement compared to 2023. And once again, since the relative increase in the whole picture of the ICL is not that significant, even if there is a dramatic improvement, it will not make such a big difference in the whole result. So Abrom will be improved, but this year will be similar to last year, because last year started with very strong months at the beginning of the year, so we won't reach months as strong at the end of the year Okay, thank you very much.
spk03: Thank you. We have Ilja Feiner from LIDER.
spk02: Hello, can you hear me? Yes, Ilja, hello. Hello, thank you for the question. I would like to add a bit of color to the subject of the fields that are not snowy. The range from 0.7 to 0.9, what is my scenario? That is, if I look at the square, you did around 200 EBITDA in the other categories. So where do you see a possible decrease to 0.7?
spk07: So first of all, back to Michal's question, if you take 200 and multiply by 4, you get the middle point. And from here I'll give to Aviram, because I already said what I wanted to say, so Aviram can add something.
spk05: In fact, if we look at it this way, in the list of industrial products, um um and we also wrote about it that we see as time passes the emphasis on the specialties here in the WPA section we see a lower price range at 24 instead of 23 so here it can affect us to a certain extent we connect everything At the same time, we are getting a result that is quite similar to Shula or the last part of 2023, and we have still developed a range just to be on the safest path. Okay, thank you very much.
spk02: You're welcome. Thank you. Thank you.
spk03: We will move on to another question that came through the Q&A. In the fourth quarter, did you sell the stock in Sinl and Odoo, or did you buy the stock in the first quarter?
spk07: So in India, no. In China, we sold, because we had contractual obligations that we only completed at the beginning of the first quarter. What was the question? In the first quarter, we did sell in India. In the first quarter, we sold a little in India. At the moment, the situation is that they want to buy, and we also didn't want to, we didn't have money to sell to them.
spk03: Okay, thank you. Elefri from Bank Leumi would like to open again. She has a full question. Okay.
spk01: Thank you so much for the short answer. Regarding the layers, we have heard about potential layers for a really perfect storm, a very, very strong, strong storm at the end of the last quarter of 2024, at least that's what our experts say. So the question, assuming that it will happen at the end of the year, at the beginning of the year, geographically, what areas do you need, because we know that there is now a competition between the United States and this area, does it matter to you where it will happen globally, or are you there everywhere?
spk07: We're in every place. We're in Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan, the United States, you name it. We're all our customers. We're just waiting for it.
spk01: Okay, fine. So it's not geographical. Okay, so that's good to hear. A completely technical question. The line wasn't that good, at least for me. You said that you're expecting 68 million tons of waste this year. I don't know if I heard it right.
spk07: Our industry and all our competitors expect more than 68 million. If we were to quote others, because we don't have a better accurate knowledge, between 68 and 71 million.
spk01: Ah, that's from their conversations, okay.
spk07: I thought you had some analysis... No, the amount we gave is over 68, and it's based on IFA, the International Association of Contemporary Societies, which does a very good and precise research. In fact, they were right about the last two years.
spk01: It's higher than Nutrien, right?
spk07: It's less than me, but... No, Nutrien gave 68 to 71, and we gave over 68 without a doubt.
spk01: Okay, thank you. And a technical question for Aviran. Supply and demand, does the level of the fourth quarter represent... It's clear that... The fourth quarter is slightly low.
spk05: Thank you very much again. You're welcome.
spk03: Thank you. We're done, Rabbi, and we can wrap up.
spk07: Okay, so thank you to my friends, Aviram, and thank you again for being with us and being patient to listen to us. We look forward to seeing you again, and we hope to invite you to the first meeting of the year soon. Thank you for the long-term training, and thank you for the questions, and may it be a little better in this country, and may we be in your care all the time. Thank you all. Good night.
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