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ICL Group Ltd
8/6/2025
Good morning, thank you for the presentation, and welcome to the next meeting of the ICA's meeting for the second quarter of 2025. In any case, we invite you to ask a lot of questions through the chat of the system, or if you are interested, you can contact me, Oded Ben-Khorin, from Kishon Meshkiyim, directly to the WhatsApp. . . . . .
Thank you, Oded. Good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. We are concluding the second quarter. After all, a quarter with many ups and downs in the global market, also here in Israel. But despite all these things, we are bringing you results of a quarter that matches our expectations. And I will explain later. So, in terms of prices, all in all, this return is estimated at more than $1.8 billion in prices, $80 million above the current return last year, with an increase of 5% compared to last year and 4% compared to the previous return. From this, about 1.5 billion dollars in specialties driven bonds, that is, industrial products, agricultural and phosphate solutions. This is already an increase of 8% compared to the previous period and 6% compared to the previous quarter. In EBITDA, the sum is $351 million, a little less than last year, and also the EBITDA of the Specialty Driven, $259 million, a slight decrease compared to last year. But the profit for a mixed and dilapidated investment is similar to the previous quarter. In terms of the share price, 269 million dollars, 100 million dollars more than the previous quarter, and in all, a nice rise. From what we see in the market, in the second quarter, in general, the prices in the various markets continued to increase. We will talk about this later, also in Ashlag, in Gom and in other places. Regarding the extreme markets, from the point of view of requests, it changes a bit between the markets, but overall it's quite consistent, there are no very big dramas. In the agriculture market, in general, the basics are quite stable, it of course changes between state to state, between market to market, we'll talk about that a bit later, but there too there are no big dramas. So, from here I will go into our links and I will start with the link of the industrial products. So, the link of the IP, the link of the industrial products, in total the prices are quite similar to last year with a slight improvement. In EBITDA, there was a slight decrease compared to the past year, even though the BROM prices increased, but there was a change in the mix of the products that we sold, and that explains the decrease in EBITDA. . . . . . . We see that the demand is still a bit weak. On the other hand, in the markets that are based on sugarcane, we actually see better prices and better demands. Of course, the anti-dumping process in the United States also helped, and we really see an increase in prices there due to these things. On the other hand, other markets, especially oil and gas, look better. Along with that, regarding oil and gas, we need to be careful. Traditionally, the first half of the year is half as strong in this market as the second half, so I'm not sure it's the same thing. But in this quarter, we saw nice prices for oil and gas, especially for oil and gas. To North America, I will not use the name of the institute in order not to argue with anyone. That's it. As for the rest of the year in this activity, we feel that it will last at least the same thing, even in the second half of the year. So that's about the IP allocation. From here I will move to the IP allocation. So, as you can see, the prices have dropped, in contrast to last year, $383 million, and the EBITDA dropped slightly, $115 million. And this is on the basis of an increase in prices. The estimated price for the US dollar in the current quarter, in Q2, was $333 for the CIF dollar, in contrast to $300 in the previous quarter, and also in the previous quarter last year, more or less the same thing. So in terms of price per ton, this is an increase of 11%. In terms of prices, we sold another 971,000 tons of ice, which is low at 182,000 tons from the previous quarter last year. And here comes the story of what happened in Israel. Most of this decline in the prices of ice comes from activity in the Sea of Salt. This activity is affected, we all live here and know what is happening, it is also affected by one-time events and also by more ongoing events, and I will explain. One, we had in this quarter, at the end of April, a planned suspension of production, a little longer than usually, 8 days of suspension of production, which was in the plan, and we took it into account and managed it smoothly. On the other hand, we had the program with Iran, a program of 12 days, in which the production was more difficult because of all sorts of limitations. I will not discuss all of them here, but more importantly, a very extensive supply of supplies. But the thing that might have affected more than everything is precisely the expansion of the program in Gaza, or the regional program, which has been with us for almost 22 months. . . . . . . . And what we saw in the second quarter in terms of production, which also depends on the amount of the price, the connection of these two events, also one-time, the planned shutdown and the deal with Iran, which was over and behind us, but also the longer-lasting impact of the general deal here, the nuclear bombs, And as time goes by and more people are not present, or the same number of people are not present, then of course they start to see more of the damage. So that's the medical issue, and we'll get back to it at the end. As far as markets are concerned, as always, we're trying to give the best to the market that gives us the best netback in this quarter. It was Europe, but of course, with the development of the commitments we have, so we sold another 100,000 tons to China and India in the year-end contracts of 2024. which, as you remember, are significantly lower than the prices we have today. In the 70s, 73 dollars per ton are lower than the existing prices that we have signed with China and India, which were 346 and 349 dollars per ton. So that's about the stock market. Again, in my opinion, the prices are relatively high, and in terms of production, I believe that we will settle, so I assume that the future will be better. From here I will move on to the phosphate solutions. Here there is a very strong return in terms of prices, $637 million, 11% higher than the previous year's direct return, with a loss of $134 million. . . . . . . . . . The release is limited due to the Chinese regulation and the result is that the prices of both phosphates are relatively high. Along with this, it should be said, the raw materials and mainly the fertilizer that serves this activity, its price has risen a lot in the recent period, and this, of course, is due to our profits. In recent weeks, we have seen a slight decrease, but there are still fillers that need to be filled, so the rise in raw materials is relatively high. Regarding the special phosphates activity, So in the food industry, there is no significant change. There is good growth in the area of milk-based dairy and vegetable dairy. Regarding phosphate for industrial uses, and in general this is also the subject of phosphates for battery industry, the batteries. So here we have a very nice plant in the second quarter. Our activity is actually divided into two. Phosphate is an industrial product. We produce it in several continuing industries that are located in different countries and serve the local markets. On the other hand, the subject of the battery material was produced at YPH, our joint venture in China, and there we also registered a MAP production C, mainly for the opening of a new production plant at YPH, and there really is a very beautiful plant here. In this regard, I will say that YPH has the ability to make production plans between the areas of activity, and we are constantly verifying and updating the production according to those products that know how to bring the largest netback, and today it is between the raw materials and the products of Growing Solutions, which are also produced in YPH, and we are optimizing every month regarding the continuation. So this is about the phosphate allocation. From here I will move on to growing solutions, which presented a very strong return, I have to say another very strong return, with an increase in prices to $540 million. And perhaps more importantly, an increase in the EBITDA to $56 million, which is an increase of 24% compared to last year, which is very impressive. This includes an increase in activity in North America, despite all the uncertainty with the US economy. and the regulatory changes, we see an increase, we see very nice margins, both in the United States, by the way, and also in Canada and Mexico, this whole area looks excellent. In Europe, we continue to implement our strategic plan, which is mainly a mix change, both of the products and of the countries, so although the prices have dropped a bit intentionally, but the profits have risen, as a result of a shift to the most special products in the growing solutions portfolio. Also in Asia, where the main market is China, the profit has increased, the prices were similar to last year, and this is also a result of a change in the mix. Regarding Brazil, I remind you that Brazil, the online market, started now, in the southern half of the globe, But nevertheless, there were good prices in the second quarter, with a higher price level. The share price dropped a little, also because of some movements in the capital city of Chalifin, and also because the most profitable years, what is called the Folier, the years that were put into bankruptcy, . . . . Okay.
Thank you very much, Elad. I will move on to other parts, beyond what Elad presented. Let's start with a little insight. You saw the results of the company. Now let's give it some context. Let's try to look at the business environment or the business environments and what happens in them. So as Elad said, this revolution will be characterized by a lot of volatility on a global level. I think that what happened to us in June, to a certain extent, was such a catharsis that it fell on things that happened in the world economy, the non-war. A war began to take place of a different kind, the war of Sakhar, the war of Mechassin. I remember that on April 5th, if I remember correctly, it was April 5th, it was the famous Trump Liberation Day, which means that The beginning of the process of planting very, very high differential crops all over the world. This has far-reaching effects. on the world's demand maps. This is something that will not disappear, of course, until today. Some of the countries have already signed agreements with it, some less. I will not go over them. You, of course, follow after all the things. What actually happened, if we look, I start from the upper left part, the inflation level. The inflation level, there is a great difference between the inflations in different parts of the world. In fact, in the European group, we see a constant decrease in inflation. In China, we see a slow inflation. They are always afraid of deflation. After, of course, a dramatic decline in requests, in the different levels, the industrial security of the population, and so on and so forth. In the United States, inflation in a certain extent has decreased, but we have to see what will happen now. Israel, we know, all the pressures that are here, I don't need to explain. And the last, and perhaps less prominent in this area, is Brazil. In Brazil, in fact, and soon we will move to the fourth quarter, so we will be able to see how the Brazilian Central Bank responds, there are inflation pressures that lead to extensive policy, Not always with this expansion by the government. To remind you, today Lula returned to power, Bolsonaro is following him. There were big doubts, perhaps Brazil is a little less known to us here, the world's most important market in agriculture, and there are significant impacts here. Inflation is relatively high and does not expand, you see it on the left, a lot, On the right hand side, it is the highest share, the share that the Brazilian Central Bank holds, and it has also risen, notice the graph, it is rising, it is a nominal share of about 15%, in terms of inflation, it is a real share of 10%. Such a real share, add the decline in the market, which is a very, very problematic decline, and we are receiving a country that is perhaps the most important in the world's agriculture world, but a country that must always be in good shape, there is a lot of potential there, there are a lot of risks, and that is exactly what ICL is doing, and I must say, it is a great success. If we look at the lower left part, at GDP, at global production, global industrial production, You can see that during the period it went down and went down, and it is expected that this decline will subside over time and will start to rise. But at the end of the day, if you look at the part that is most highlighted here, we are in a global period of a certain decline in global production here. It is clear why this is happening. Of course, in the short term, we will not enter into a collapse, and in different geographical areas, there are different effects, but there is no doubt that one of the things that the closed policy creates is, in the end, a change in terms of global industry and in terms of global productivity. This is the great minus that is always present in a closed policy. In terms of construction beginnings in the United States, we see that in the end there is a certain tolerance, but in the end, and this is also a kind of paradigm, that whoever is there, the prices are high, but the quantities are low, the buildings are low, and in the end, we sign with it, because this also affects, of course, some of our activities, especially in the gates of the gate. If I continue to say things that are even closer to our hearts, so from the left side upwards, we see the global agricultural commodities prices. This is the rice, this is the rice, of course, the wheat, the soy, and the general index, most of them are, after all, one goes down, one goes up, but at the end of the day, if we look at the integral, which shows the spread of the price of commodities, we are in the lower part of it. On the other hand, we know that the fertilizer prices, they go up and up, they go up in phosphate and they go up in nitrogen as well. There is something here that, of course, needs to be followed, because the result of this is that there is a bad sentiment on the upper right side of the farmers. Again, in different geographical areas, this sentiment is different, but it has a very big importance. I think that in previous meetings we talked about this once. It is not just that sentiment is talked about here, about feelings. Because farmers often, based on these feelings, make decision-making decisions in such a situation where the printing is in a good place, the commodities in a less good place. This means that, to a certain extent, there is a problem here with value reduction or quantity reduction and, of course, we need to follow up on that. Again, the results of the society, which you already know, are very good results and you can see them in this context. . . . . . If we look from the bottom right, we see the prices of the global right-wing change as an indication. After all, there was a certain margin, and we know that at the level of... shiluach haolami, kol zot lema'et, cherek ma'a shiluach, shekashur la'izor aspecifi shelanu, la'medina shelanu, shepo ha'ashpa'ot hageo-politiot, hem ma'afilot, benigam suyemet, kazot o'acheret, al ma'a shekore ba'olam. Ba'olam, yesh nachon la'ayom, kapasiti gavoa, shel yacholet shinua, itmatnut mesuimet, b'vikushim ze shinua, ve'atotzaa, kamovani, bilti nimna'at, yeridat mechrim olamit. From the point of view of Brom's prices, Elad spoke about this, we see a certain rise, although the extreme demands of the products, including those from the Be'erah chain and others, are still in an unoptimized place, but overall, from the point of view of the prices in Brom, is at a certain level. Part of that, of course, is our strategy, as world leaders of Abram, and it's better to value the flow. If we look from the top right, we see the correlation between the price of phosphate, which is on a high level, and it remains, and even went up in the market, as a high price, which also went up. This is the large amount, of course, outside the phosphate layer, in the shape of the phosphate. At the end of the day, the profits, As you can see, they are very good. We choose to point out this, since these two vectors are not necessarily comfortable in correlation between them. In this period, yes, in terms of the volume, it is ahead. There are indications that the prices are going up. This is, of course, a byproduct of the oil industry in general, and the markets are different, but in the end it will be a sign of a certain decline along the way. If we look from the bottom left, and this is only regarding the United States, in terms of what we call durable goods, we see that during this period there is a certain supply after a period of rising in the previous year. A significant part of this is due to the macro data that comes from the United States. As long as it is related to the fragmentation of the barriers to the products themselves. And of course, this fragmentation depends on the power and the need of each product separately, of course, beyond this meeting. And if we look at the latest data, the macro data, which is the retail prices of food products, the importance of this, of course, is very great. It's a huge market in the United States. And here, too, we see an increase in demand until the 24th, and a certain demand at this time. Again, it all depends on the trend of the customer, the customer at the American end, to rush, to buy, and so on. If we look at our prices, And again, we see the parallel between the parallel to the parallel to the vertical. We see it also from the right-hand side, the amount, the price, and the rest of the alternatives. And on the left-hand side, we see it according to our segments. All of these data Elad already talked about them, so I will cut here. We see that we elevated all the segments. On the left-hand side, of course, the snow that we talked about. And on the right side, we see a certain annual volume of quantity, but a much higher price range. And FX, the rest of the alternatives, a market that will affect the prices for the best, you will see that in terms of the Y, it will hardly affect it. If we go to the EBITDA, we see that our EBITDA is 351, on the other hand, 377 in the next quarter of the quarter. And in fact, we see, first of all, on the right side, we see where it comes from, a very positive price trend, on the other hand, a trend in raw materials. which is negative radiation, mainly physical radiation. We also see a certain level of energy, we see in the fields, we talked about it. As I said earlier, in terms of effective replacement cells, including tanks and so on, the radiation is minimal, there is almost no radiation at the level of Hawaii. Yerida nesonet bakamuyot, v'ma sheimtzeinu mugdar ki Adder, sheze gam kamuyot stiyot nefach, shel kamuyot haitzur, otsoot achzaka, yechaz chelkan harigot vkdome, anachnu royim stiya shel 95 milyon, vbasach ekol mekablim 351 milyon ebida barivon. Yim anachnu mistakim, ayinu netonim sheitem mekirim otam, vpo ani mamash hekater, atem royim sheinachnu nimtsayim b'yam ha-melach, Right now, we are in certain manufacturing phases that we are over-experiencing, but in terms of the price, we are in the 20th percentile, that is, in terms of our prices there, manufacturing prices, they are very good prices. In terms of the prices that we are getting, from the bottom left, we are usually enjoying, also from proper management, our very professionalism, also from a certain point of view, I call it advantages to the outside, because we are fighting between the different markets, and especially in the previous period, we fought mainly in the West of Israel, where the prices were better, and the leads were less damaged as a result of the war. At the end of the day, again, as Elad mentioned, we are in the second quarter, We had to close the gates of obligations that we took, partly at the price levels that were set a year ago, to India and China. And therefore, our expectation is that in the future, we will see a movement upwards, from a 3rd quarter of the estimated price to the ICL. From the point of view of the stock market, there is nothing new here. We are with the biggest, with the best cross-position, and we are on par with the markets, and this continues, and this means that at the end of the day, in the world of the stock market, the final demands that we have, we have no control over them, we talked about this earlier, and in fact, as long as it is related to the values and quantities that we send to the market, And at the end of the day, these are strategic decisions that we make. If we look at the company's portfolio, again, a slide that shows its importance is to show the geographical spread of the company, you can see it on the right side, and the financial spread of the company. In fact, without going into details, you can see how balanced the company is, how much the company It works in different markets, and for some time, for different reasons, for macro reasons, the vectors work in the same direction. The portfolio, in the end, in the geographical distribution, causes a balance. It's different, significant, from our friends at ANAF, who are much more focused. If you look at companies like Mosaic, for example, they are focused. They are focused on commodities, and they are not focused on a lot of things that we have. We have a nutrient channel, a KNS channel, a channel for a lot of competitions, so that, from the point of view of the company, . . . . In terms of the capabilities of the company, in terms of the resources, I'm going from the top left, according to the order, right, and then down. In fact, the company has the ability to implement very large projects. um um In terms of cash flow, as you saw earlier, we have a daily cash flow of 270 million dollars. We did, we implemented, the UNPACAT or the UNPACAT, the GACHIM, BARRI and ONAZE. It's not the local rating, it's the global rating, triple B minus. In terms of the world currency markets, we can talk about it a lot. If there are questions, we will talk about it. But of course, we have an investment. Our company is a dollar-functional currency, very large values and different currencies, including the shekel, euro, real, etc. In terms of our return to our investors, we have a dividend of 55 million dollars in the quarter. Thank you very much. And I return the speech to Elad, who will inform us about the guidance for the future, and then open it up for questions. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Aviram. A little bit about ACADEMA. We just talked about the second quarter. We'll talk about the guidance for the entire year. So, regarding the first parameter of the EBITDA, of what we call the specialties driven, that is, all three categories, industrial products, growing solutions, and phosphate solutions, In the first place, we leave this parameter unchanged between $950 billion and $1.15 billion EBITDA per year in these three bonds. The second goal we are a bit excited about, following what I mentioned earlier, the prices, as we understand them now, will be in the full year between 4.3 million tons to 4.5 million tons. And I will say here only in the most general context, first of all, in my eyes it is very beautiful and I am very pleased with our workers who succeed in everything that is happening here in the region, and specifically what happened in Iran, to continue to create all the time in all the sites. But in the end, these are the numbers. And the second thing that needs to be taken into account in this context is that the price of ice is good, beautiful, better than last year, and they are not included in the parameter. So, this is regarding the ice, and the third parameter of the annual yield, we will leave it unchanged, is around 30%. So that's about the guidance. A few last words before we open it up to questions. So overall, I think you can see in this review, continued growth in the activities of our products and special solutions. Everyone has their own story, but overall, a very beautiful growth that we are very proud of, and will continue to be in the heart of our strategy, and maybe we will also encourage it. . . . . . . . . . Newness continues to be our focus, new products, more customized, more sustainable as well. We will continue with this, but or not but. In addition to this, we are also aiming to carry out projects that will advance the strategy in the field of specialties. The global presence, or the global presence, may be a good point to follow up on. We will certainly talk about assets and I don't know what the sanctions are in Europe. For this company, for ICL, there is a very big advantage. We have a very wide geographical range. Ten, eleven companies in Brazil, six in the United States, ten in Europe, companies in China, and now we are also establishing a new company in Odoo. So a big part of what we sell is local to local, from Europe to Europe, from the United States to the United States. In this sense, I think that we are ready for all this de-globalization, all the soccer wars, in a better way than most of our actual competitions. So we will continue, and also the decisions we made, if it is the last decision in the United States at the end of last year, are very much in favor of us now, when the American relations are growing. That's it. And if we talked about barriers, then we will continue to follow up after the situation. It is true for now, perhaps it is worth noting that there is no barrier to the United States at all, it is excluded, and most of the things that we include in the United States, as I said, are local products in the United States. Therefore, in this sense, we do not see anything special that needs to be updated or that will change, but we will continue to follow up after the developments. So that's it from my side. I suggest we move on to some questions and answers.
Thank you. Excellent. Thank you very much. I remind you that you can send me a message via WhatsApp or via the Q&A or via the webinar chat. Let's start. A few questions regarding Zara Ashlag. You explained that the production in Ravon was low due to security concerns. When will the price be reduced? You have a deal that can be sold.
. . . . . . . We know how to withdraw all the money from Ashdod and work in a flexible manner. Regarding the quantities of the production itself, I said there are several components here. There is the one-off component of the war with Iran, which was 12 days more intensive and there was one-off damage. But on the other hand, I don't want to go into the fact that the number of people who are in refineries for many, many months, in the end, also led to a certain decrease, a little more continuous, in the production in the Sea of Salt. We see improvement in recent weeks. We believe that this is due to this event. But again, we share with you what we know and the results you saw.
Thank you, Elad. There are a few questions about prices. You can ask as many as you can. What is the price you see today in the stock market, if I may ask?
So, look, in the second quarter, we said that the minimum export price was $333. Since in these days we are really finishing the stocks of India and China, the low stocks of 2024, so, overall, the mix, and also the fact that the stock prices are higher, will lead to a higher average price in the third quarter. I don't know exactly how much. I estimate that it should be 10-15 dollars more than the second quarter. But again, I'm saying this carefully. It could move a little to the right or left.
I also need to say, if I may add, that in the different geographic areas, there is a difference, there is a difference. In terms of prices, it also depends on the currency. A year ago, a year and a half ago, the prices were very high. Until now, when Europe was in a fresh appearance from the United States, Brazil and so on. Today, the prices are lower and they still exist. And after I go back to what we saw in the presentation, that we know how to navigate between the different countries, beyond the neighboring countries that we have, which are China and India, There will also be a positive and good impression of the geographical mix. Therefore, our goal, as said and explained, is to advance in terms of the effective price-to-price of the company in the course of the year. Thank you.
Let's continue with Arshlag. In what month will the new price be announced in the second, third and second months?
So basically, these days, we already supply according to the new prices. But I have to say, we are now in the beginning of August, we still had in the third quarter about 40,000 tons that we supplied on the basis of the old prices of 2024. Today, we are already in the new prices. And again, the prices of the sports are also higher. Aviram talked about it just now.
Thank you. Is the mechanism of the economy still due to the shortfall or is it back to a negative third?
So let me take that. The activity is not contributing in a positive way to the current price levels, but we must remember that it is part, it is part of the entire industry of the Sea of Salt. And therefore, the question is also how we call it, because it is also responsible for chlorine consumption, and it is also responsible for many other things, without a doubt, Thank you, Biram. I continue with phosphate. The price of phosphate continues to rise, the profit will not disappear.
Is it only due to the effect of the increase in the physical price?
I will relate to that. I have to remember that in terms of phosphate, first of all, what we are working on here is also all the activity that we will do in the body. Here it is very significant in YPH. Like the commodities, like the specialties. Now, when we look inside the package and look inside what contains the name Phosphate Solutions, we need to remember that the commodities are in a very comfortable place. In terms of quantities, we expect, in terms of prices, they are absolutely good prices, and the trend here is that it will continue. From the point of view of the specialties, and we talked about this in previous meetings, there was a clear phenomenon of a drop in capacity in the white market, and there was a drop in prices that was completely expected, and we talked about it, significantly in the last two years. This trend for our happiness, Not only did it stop, but it also changed to a certain extent, but it's only one fraction, it's still not statistically clear enough, but that means that we're seeing that the pressure on the specialty side in phosphate is small. There are two parts that combine the phosphate type, they are both organic, they are both excellent, but there is no doubt that in part of the specialty there was price pressure, we, as I said, hope that it will improve along the way.
. . .
I don't know if it's the 28th exactly, but I can say that we are in a period where the Talakim are out, but they are already out of the order of seven quarters. We definitely hope that this extravagance, of course not a word in Hebrew, will be overcome and eliminated. Let's say, from the point of view of the basic things of the society, the society does not have any inherent, clear arguments that they have drawn. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the causes, where it comes from, what it contains, and as a result of this, where it goes.
Thank you, Aviram. One more question for Ashlag. The price of the product is $330. How much of a difference is there between the increase in quantity and the increase in price?
So, regarding the price improvement, I touched, at least regarding the third quarter, regarding quantities, you have all the numbers. You know how many prices we will sell, and you know how many we sold. But so that it will not be completely one, the improvement will come from a combination of both, a relatively significant improvement in price, and a certain improvement in quantities.
Thank you, Alad. A question about the Jensen project. The question is, do you think it will surprise the market and the companies that operate in it with the beginning of the production? Maybe it will really give a bit of a background.
So look, about Jensen, it's the BHP project that BHP is building in Western Canada. It's a project that adds the largest capacity that is currently planned in the world. And Jensen, BHP, announced that they will have a break in time, a year-long order, and also an increase in interest rates. We said in the past, when we reduced the stock market, and we are saying now as well, the first step, what they are working on now, is to add 4 million tons to the market. And this will be accompanied by the increase in natural demand, which occurs every year, the increase in demand for the stock market. And therefore, it is... In our opinion, and also in the opinion of other players in the gambling sector, it will not lead to any change in the way the market is built, in terms of prices and things like that. The information of BHP is interesting, in my opinion, in a slightly different way, and that is their motivation to enter the second stage of the auction. They have another stage planned to make another round of 4 million tons. In my opinion, because of the loss in the losses and mainly in the losses, But the 4 million tons that were mined from the end of 2026 to 2027 is something that everyone took into account. It is escalating due to the increase in demand. There is no drama here.
Just what Elad said, the second part was supposed to be another 4 million tons. Yes. And if they had... And it was supposed to enter around, if I'm not mistaken, around 2030. Right. The first part, at least in a year, will probably be more than that. Potentials, just to clear your mind, from 5 billion to 7 billion. It's not a correction of a few hundred million, it's 2 billion dollars more. And if they didn't enter, and the entire global map, and the entire forward view, was based on 4 plus 4 million tons. And if that doesn't happen, then we see a different, significant map of the balance between requests and exits, which means that the relative high price level will be, over time, more significant. I think that's a very significant shift to everything that happened there now.
Great, I think we have a very broad discussion. Aviram, it's up to you.
Tell us about the decline in profit sharing in the Phosphate Commodity. Well, the Phosphate Commodity, we'll start first of all with why profit sharing is high. Profit sharing is high mainly because, as always, because of a demand that is not able to be fully secure, because of the sanctions of the Chinese. The Chinese... In terms of price, the price is expected to continue to be strong. When we talked at the beginning of the year, Tzianu ta mechir ha-gavoha, amarno ant lo edim kama zman ze imashech, bentayim ze imshach shnei rivonim, bentayim ze nira shezeh sharir ve-kayam gam ba rivon ha-shlishi, ve-bechlet itachen she me-ever le-kach. Umi neged, tzach le-izkor she gam atzuma, me-ever le-sela ha-phosphat, ha-meshmaotit me-ot shezeh ha-gufrit al-ta. והעצומה של הגופרית עלתה, אם אתם זוכרים עוד רגע מהסלייט קודם, בקצב אחר, מאשר העלייה של המחיר של הפוספת. קודם ראינו את העלייה של מחירי הפוספת, מחירי הגופרית עלו בצורה משמעותית, וצריך לזכור, זה לא רק מחיר הגופרית השולי, השולי זה מחיר הגופרית הממוצע שנכנס לפרודקשן, התעשייה אצלנו, וכמובן הוא כולל גם את המלאים הקודמים, ולכן אנחנו רואים אפקטיבית שמבחינת החברה, Thank you very much. Elad, I think we can move on to the University of Qom.
Okay, so again, thank you to everyone who joined. In the end, as I said at the opening, the second round is very much in line with our expectations, and given everything that is happening both in the global market and here in the geopolitical situation in Israel, I think this is a good round. I mainly want to thank the ICL staff here in Israel, who continue to run all the sites 24-7, with everything that is happening around, and also our staff around the world, who not always simply continue to give one more good reward. And maybe I will conclude by saying that I think that the next reward will be even a little better, maybe a little more, so we will meet at another reward. Thank you very much everyone.