This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
spk00: Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's International Papers second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, you will have the opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw a question, press the pound key. I would now like to turn today's conference over to Guillermo Gutierrez, Vice President, Investor Relations. And, Guillermo, you may begin.
spk04: Thank you, Shalom. Good morning, and thank you for joining International Paper's second quarter 2021 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Mark Sutton, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Nichols, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
spk09: There is important information at the beginning of our presentation on Flight 2, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
spk04: We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to U.S.
spk09: GAAP financial measures is also available on our website. Our website contains copies of our second quarter of 2021 running press release and its documentation slides.
spk04: Relative to the Illinois Joint Ventures, slide two provides context around the Joint Ventures financial information and statistical measures. I will now turn the call over to Mark Sutton. Thank you, Guillermo. Good morning, everyone. We will begin our discussion on slide three. International paper delivered solid earnings growth and strong cash generation in the second quarter. We continue to see very strong demand for corrugated packaging and container board and solid demand for flood control. And in our papers business, demand recovery accelerated in the second quarter across our key geographies. We grew revenue by 15% as compared to the second quarter of last year, with price realization accelerating in all of our business segments. Our mills and converting system performed well. However, we operated with extremely low container inventory across our packaging network due to two facts, the lingering effects of the winter storm in the first quarter and then our planned maintenance outages in the second quarter. These operating conditions, along with severely stressed transportation environments, adversely affected volume and operating costs in the second quarter. Input costs and freight were significant headwind in just about every category. I would call out the sharp rise in recovered fiber costs in North America and Europe. Although it certainly had a significant cost impact, it is another indication of the strong demand environment. Our Illum joint venture delivered outstanding performance with equity earnings of $101 million in the second quarter and a strong outlook as we move into the third quarter. On capital allocation, we're making significant progress, striking our balance sheet, In the second quarter, we reduced debt by $796 million. We also returned $258 million to our shareholders, including $57 million for share repurchases. During the second quarter, we monetized our remaining stake in graphic packaging. I'm really pleased with the return on our investment. The structure of the transaction in 2018 maximized the value of the consumer packaging business for our shareholders. Looking ahead, we're making excellent progress on the spinoff of our printing papers business, which we expect to complete on October 1st. Across IP, the team is doing an outstanding job managing complexity. We remain diligent in applying COVID-19 layers of protection for our employees and contractors. And I really appreciate our team's commitment to execute well, take care of each other, and take care of our customers as we work together to build a better IP for our shareholders and really all of our stakeholders. I'm going to turn to slide four now, which shows our second quarter results. we delivered even down to $793 million and free cash flow of $633 million, which brings our free cash flow generation to more than $1 billion for the first half of 2021. Revenue increased by $750 million, or 15%, as compared to last year, driven by higher average prices in our three businesses, as well as volume growth in our packaging and papers businesses. Margins improve sequentially with price realization outpacing higher input and transportation costs. We expect margins to expand meaningfully in the second half of the year as price realization outpaces rising input and transportation costs, and importantly, as we step down from our highest maintenance quarter of the year. Now I'll turn it over to Kim, who will cover our business performance as well as our fourth quarter outlook. Kim?
spk09: Thank you, Mark. Moving to the quarter-over-quarter earnings bridge on slide five, second quarter operating earnings per share were $1.06 as compared to $0.76 in the first quarter. Price and mix improved by nearly $0.50 per share, sequentially driven by very strong price realizations across all of our business segments. Volume was essentially flat versus last quarter. Demand for corrugated packaging is very strong, and demand for fluff pulp is solid, while demand for papers continues to recover in all key regions. Second quarter volume in our North American packaging business was constrained by severely low container board inventory, and fluff pulp shipments were hampered by significant port congestion. Our mills and converting system performed well. Operating costs were adversely impacted by a highly stressed supply chain environment for both our inbound materials and outbound shipments, as well as the exceptionally low container board inventory conditions in our North America packaging system. Maintenance outage costs increased by 18 cents sequentially as we completed our highest maintenance outage quarter of the year. On an absolute level, maintenance costs were $250 million in the second quarter. Input costs were a significant headwind for most materials, and energy costs remained elevated, providing little relief following the winter storm. OCC represented about half of the sequential increase in input costs. Although some of the pressure and input costs could be transitory, such as the impact of heavy rainfall on our wood costs in the Gulf region, the extremely tight transportation environment will continue to put pressure on all inbound materials. Every mode of transportation is tight, and we expect them to remain tight as we move to the second half of the year. Corporate expenses benefited from favorable reserve adjustments. Our tax rate of 24% in the second quarter was sequentially lower primarily due to discrete period tax benefit, and equity earnings improved substantially on very strong performance from Illinois. Turning to the segments and starting with industrial packaging on slide six, we continue to see strong demand across all channels, including boxes, sheets, and container board. As Mark indicated, we operate with extremely low container board inventory in the U.S. system. These conditions impacted volume and operating costs in the quarter. We are working to replenish inventory following a winter storm and maintenance outages as we manage through a tight transportation environment. Taking a look at our second quarter performance, volume was sequentially flat. Strong demand in our North American box and container board channels offset lower seasonal demand in our EMEA business. Volume across our U.S. channels grew by 10% as compared to last year, which includes our U.S. box system, open market container board customers, as well as our recent equity partnerships with strategic sheet feeders. Price and mix increased by about $110 million in the quarter. We're making excellent progress on the realization of our March increase. Our mills and converting system performed well. However, operating costs were impacted by severely low container board inventories and a stressed transportation environment with congestion across all modes. Maintenance outage costs increased sequentially as we completed the highest maintenance outage quarter of the year. In our industrial packaging business, we've completed about 75% of our planned maintenance outages in the first half of the year. Input costs were a significant headwind in the quarter, primarily driven by higher costs for OCC, chemicals, and distribution. About $10 million of the sequential increase in input costs occurred in our EMEA packaging business, primarily for OCC and enterprise. Taking a closer look at OCC, we consume about 5 million tons annually across our U.S. mill system and Spain. We see the rise in OCC cost as a reflection of the underlying strength in global demand for corrugated packaging. We expect OCC costs to rise further in the third quarter, even as seasonal generation improves. We expect continued U.S. and export demand, especially from India and Southeast Asia. which are largely offsetting pre-restriction OCC exports to China. Turning to slide seven, we're well positioned for strong earnings growth and margin expansion in our packaging business in the third and fourth quarter. Demand is strong across all of our channels. We expect continued robust volume growth across our U.S. channels, and we are making excellent progress on the price realization of our margin increase. Our mills and box plants are positioned for strong second-half performance following the impact of the winter storms and the significant maintenance outages in the second quarter. Replenishing our container board inventories will enable operational and supply chain efficiencies as we move through the second half of the year. We do expect further input cost inflation in the third quarter with substantial pressure on OCC and transportation costs. Our teams are doing an admirable job managing cost in a tough environment. We expect further opportunities to be more efficient as inventories liberalize. In addition, our commercial initiatives are outpacing cost pressure and position us for strong margin expansion in the second half of the year. Turning to global cellulose fibers on slide eight, demand for flood fault is solid, and the end-use demand signal for absorbent hygiene products is healthy. Looking at our sequential earnings price and mix improved by $104 million in the second quarter with price realization accelerating across all regions and segments as expected. Volume was moderately lower due to significant U.S. port congestion and frequent vessel schedule changes which delayed our shipments. Mill performance was strong. However, operating costs were impacted by the tight supply chain environment. We expect these conditions to continue in the third quarter. Maintenance outage costs decreased as expected and input costs were moderately higher with lower wood costs in the mid-Atlantic region offset by higher chemical and energy costs. Turning to printing papers on slide nine, our paper business delivered earnings of $76 million in the second quarter with continued strong cash generation. Our printing papers business carries strong momentum as we approach the spinoff on October 1st. and then continues to recover in all of our key regions. Additionally, our volume recovery is outpacing the industry through the strength of our global brands and commercial excellence. Looking at the second quarter performance, price and mix improved by nearly $30 million with price realization across all regions. Fixed cost absorption improved with no economic downtime in our North American mill system. However, operating costs were impacted by the tight transportation environment. We executed the heaviest maintenance outage quarter of the year as well. And on input costs, we experienced pressure on wood, chemicals, and drift. As I said earlier, we're on track to spin off the paper's business on October 1st. Separation planning is progressing well, and we expect to file the Form 10 with details of the spin-off in the first half of August. As you would expect, there is significant complexity. Our teams are doing an outstanding job managing the business as we prepare for a successful separation. Looking at the ELM results on slide 10, the joint venture delivered equity earnings of $101 million in the second quarter with an EBITDA margin of 47%, driven by strong price realization for pulp and container board. Volume improved sequentially on strong demand for pulp and container board, as well as more shipping days in the second quarter following the impact of the Chinese New Year in the prior quarter. Underlying demand is stable following inventory restructuring during the first half of 2021. Shipping capacity is tight and supply chains to China are stretched. Third quarter volume is expected to decrease moderately as Illum executes the majority of its annual maintenance program. So now we'll turn to the outlook for the third quarter on slide 12. As Mark said earlier, We expect meaningful earnings and margin expansion as we move to the third quarter. Looking at industrial packaging, we expect price and mix to improve by $110 million on the continued realization of our March 2021 price increase. Volume in North America is expected to improve by $10 million, while volume in Europe is expected to decrease by $10 million. Operations and costs are expected to improve by $5 million, with the North American system benefiting from a gradual recovery in container board inventory levels. Staying with industrial packaging, maintenance outage expenses are expected to be down by $122 million. Input costs are expected to increase by $85 million, with OCC representing about 60% of the expected increase. In global cellulose fibers, we expect price and mix to increase by $60 million on realization of prior price movements. Volume is expected to increase by $10 million. Operations and costs are expected to decrease earnings by $5 million on continued supply chain stress due to port congestion. Maintenance outage expense is expected to decrease by $15 million. and input costs are expected to increase by $10 million on higher wood and chemical costs. In printing papers, we expect price and mix to increase by $25 million. Volume is expected to increase by $5 million. Operations and costs are expected to be unchanged. Maintenance outage expense is expected to decrease by $23 million, and input costs are expected to increase by $10 million, primarily due to higher wood costs. And under the equity earnings, you'll see the outlook for our LM joint venture. I want to take a moment to update you on our capital allocation actions in the quarter. We're committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet We're comfortable taking a leverage below the target range of 2.5 to 2.8 times debt to EBITDA on a Moody's basis. In the second quarter, we reduced debt by $796 million, bringing our debt reduction to $904 million in the first half of 2020. Returning cash to shareholders is a meaningful part of our capital allocation framework. In the second quarter, we returned $258 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Share repurchases were $57 million, which represented 1 million shares and an average price of $60.80. We have about $1.5 billion available under the company's share repurchase authorization at the end of the second quarter. Lastly, in the second quarter, we monetized our remaining stake in graphic packaging for about $400 million. This brings our total cash proceeds on the investment to $1.3 billion before expected cash taxes of about $300 million in the second half of 2021. As a reminder, we also have a tax receivable agreement with graphic packaging. under which we expect to receive about $100 million in cash proceeds during the second half of 2021.
spk04: With that, I'll turn it back over to Mark. Tim, thank you very much for all the detail. As we look forward, we are positioned for strong earnings and margin expansion in the second half of 2021. My confidence in making this statement is based on the following. Our commercial initiatives are driving revenue growth, and our milling and converting systems will regain meaningful operational and supply chain efficiencies as we replenish inventories. Although rising input costs will likely linger, I'm certain we can successfully navigate the environment given the strong demand backdrop. Our papers business carries strong momentum as we approach the October 1st spinoff. Our team is doing an outstanding job managing the business and taking care of customers. I want to take this opportunity to thank our employees for their tireless efforts as we plan for a successful separation. As we move through 2021, we have a significant operating and non-operating cash catalyst, and we are laser-focused on the capital allocation framework that Tim just described. All of our cash will flow through our framework with one objective, maximizing value creation for our shareholders. I'm excited about the actions we're taking to build a better IP. We're accelerating earnings growth and building a foundation for long-term success. We're looking forward to sharing more about that with you in the months ahead. With that, we're ready to take your questions.
spk00: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, press star 1. To withdraw a question, press the pound key. Again, that is star one to ask a question. For consideration of time, please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. We will pause a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of George from Bank of America.
spk02: Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Thanks for taking my question. I guess my first question, Mark, You and Tim have talked about this in the past, about running the cash flow generation that the company has, both from an operating standpoint and non-operating, since you have so many transactions that have been occurring this year and will continue to occur this year through your framework. What should we take away from that in terms of what you know, tools that you have in your quiver may be more applicable now versus what might have been the case, you know, three and six months ago. And, Tim, what gives you comfort and why do you think it's appropriate, in your view, for leverage to drop below your target range? You know, what are the things that you think make that a prudent strategy? You can give us a couple of thoughts here, and then I had a follow-on.
spk09: Sure. Good morning, George. Good morning, Tim. The way we're thinking about it is we are trying to maximize value. We have a lot of cash coming in in a moment. We do, you know, everything looks positive as we go forward, but we recognize this is a cyclical business to some extent. And so in relation to the balance sheet where we are trying to build strength, reduce risk, but also flexibility and optionality, and so taking it down below the target range, which is really a target range through a cycle. Sometimes we'll be below it, sometimes we might be a little bit above, but we just view it that coupled with our pension performance as de-risking the company. Share repurchases and dividend is very important. Um, and, and so that is, um, over, over time as we, you know, not necessarily quarter by quarter, but over, you know, year by year, uh, we look to be returning, uh, substantial amounts of cash to shareholders and then everything else gets tested, whether it's organic or small bolt on types of acquisitions gets tested against that.
spk02: You know, as a follow on, would the accelerating performance that you are seeing into the second half be any way a guide, a compass point for you in terms of how you may further allocate capital, especially to value return over the rest of the year into 22? Or is it really not so much because you look at this on a longer-term basis, and what are the whys and why not on that? And then my related question, I'll turn it over for everyone. Do you have any kind of view that you could share with how much cash Silvamo will need to operate on an ongoing basis? Thank you very much.
spk09: Yeah, just one last we do, and that will be, you know, the 410 is going to be coming out here in short order, and I think that will answer a lot of questions. To your first part of your question, I think we try to look at both. We try to look at circumstances in the moment, but we definitely have a long-term view of and we're thinking about how to create value and what our value is over time. So I hope we try to take those into account over time.
spk04: Tim, if I could, and George, just wrap up. There was a lot of ground covered in the capital allocation questions that you asked. And we do take a long-term view. And as I said last quarter, one of the things we're really excited about is that we've got IP positions for the first time in really almost forever or definitely recent memory where our entire capital allocation lever set strong balance sheet, ability to pay a strong dividend, share repurchases at the right time, and very importantly, smart investments in our business, as Tim said, organic or inorganic. We have all of those levers available at the same time. And our past history, as all of you know, is we've had two or three or maybe two out of four, sometimes only one out of four, And that's what we really are excited about as we're going forward. As we separate into two companies, the new IP is going to have a capital allocation posture that we haven't had in a long time. And that's very exciting for our shareholders. It's very exciting for the company because we have options to grow the businesses that are growing, to manage our return of cash, all generating hopefully outstanding shareholder return.
spk02: Thank you very much.
spk00: Your next question comes on of Gabe Haji from Wells Fargo Securities.
spk08: Good morning, Mark and Tim. Thanks for taking the question. I guess not to belabor the point here, but I appreciate that there is somewhat of a wall of worry out there. But I think, you know, one of your peers kind of talked about potentially, you know, a structurally higher level of demand for corrugated for various reasons, whether it's e-commerce or potential entrepreneur manufacturing activities. So I guess, ask the question a little bit differently um you know your balance sheet and pension probably have not been in this good shape for you know two or three decades is there something that you see around the corner that gives you pause in terms of any of your businesses and and you know it sounds like again you're pretty near constructed near-term outlook um i'll stop there
spk04: Now, Gabe, I think we also view the corrugated packaging market as potentially having a bit of a reset through this last year and a half. We listen to our customers on that. I'm not sure it's 8% every quarter, year quarter, and quarter out like it was in the last quarter, but definitely a step up from the lowest single-digit growth rates. And that's what we want to be positioned for. When we talk about growing at a minimum with the market, we mean over time. and a reasonable assumption of growth on the U.S. market. And that's a number that I think is leaning toward the higher end just because of a couple of things, the adoption of e-commerce through the pandemic, which has, I think, proven to be very sticky, and the valuable proposition that fiber-based packaging presents to people in terms of its circularity to yield the natural resources making energy in carbon-neutral biomass way and a high recycling rate is finally, with all the talk about sustainability and climate and a number of other issues, finally getting attention all the way down to the consumer level. So we're very excited about the corrugated packaging outlook, and we want to make sure we're there with the right asset base, the right customer list, the right technical capabilities to grow, to share in that growth.
spk08: All right. Thank you, Mark. And I guess switching gears, are you guys prepared at all? It's been, call it eight months or so since you've announced the $350 to $400 million of cost reduction to provide maybe a little bit more detail, either cadence of that, of how we might expect it to flow through. I'm assuming maybe we've seen a little bit here in the first half, and then maybe by segment what you expect to see, or is that something you maybe prefer to wait to talk about?
spk09: Yeah, Gabe, we plan on starting that as we head towards the third quarter release and then for the end of the year to get an expectation about 2022 performance.
spk00: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Passaneri from Citi.
spk08: Good morning. Good morning. On industrial packaging, the FBA and AFPA data would suggest that industry inventories are closer back to a normal or more of a normally historic level for July. I'm just wondering if it's possible to quantify or put a finer point on you know, how far below you are, sort of normal or comfortable levels of inventory and sort of where that was exiting the quarter and maybe as we, you know, we're here at the end of July.
spk09: Yeah, it's, I mean, through the second quarter, we saw the lowest inventory levels in our system that we've probably ever experienced. Coming out of the second quarter into July, we're able to start recovering a little bit of that. But look, I mean, the winter storm impact hit us hard. 145,000 tons followed by an abnormally high outage quarter in the second quarter. So it's going to take a little bit of time for us to recover that as we go through third quarter and probably into the fourth quarter to some extent. So, yeah, we were at our lowest levels we've ever seen in the second quarter.
spk04: Anthony, I think the other perspective on inventories, and I've seen a lot written by analysts on normal inventories, and one just thing to remember in the way we look at it, normal inventories and averages from the past tend to correlate with more normal supply chain environments. So normal transportation velocity, so forth and so on. And we are nowhere near any kind of normal supply chain. by third-party partners in the transportation world. So our inventory view in IP for the next quarter and the quarter after that is also influenced and adjusted by what's happening in the transportation and supply chain network. So I would expect that normal right now should be higher levels of inventory to perform better.
spk08: Okay, that's very helpful and a point well taken. And then just maybe following up on capital allocation, in terms of, you talked about the willingness to potentially go under the 2.5 to 2.8 range at what is, I think, a pretty positive part of the cycle. As you look to the spin, would you look at revisiting that 2.5 to 2.8 target range, you know, either up or down? I mean, you're going to have a more durable, higher quality business with industrial packaging and pulp. At the same time, you have a publicly traded competitor and container board that's been operating, you know, closer to one turn or certainly below two turns. So just wondering if you talk about that range and maybe your willingness to revisit it over the long term.
spk09: Yeah, it's a great question, Anthony, and certainly none of this is static, right? So we want it to be understood and we want to be consistent and true to the framework as we talk about it, but that doesn't bar us from reevaluating based on portfolio and other specifics potential changes that we think are beneficial to our investors and stakeholders. Nothing now, but something that we will definitely look at over time.
spk04: Anthony, I think the way you should probably think about how we make that decision together, Tim and his team and me, is we try to look at the company and its optimal weighted average cost of capital. A portion of that is what credit rating we need to have that delivers that. and supports that. So you're absolutely right. We're going to be a different company going forward. That analysis is something that we do continuously. We've arrived at the credit rating target we have based on the company. We will continue to look at that and try to make sure that our ROIC is constructed in the most effective way to get the best, solid, high-quality return we can for shareholders. And definitely debt ratios and credit ratings are a part of that.
spk08: Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.
spk00: Your next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research.
spk06: Thank you. I wanted first just to give maybe more color On the cargated volumes, again, solid up 3.9%. Industry, though, was up 8.2%. You mentioned supply chain and other challenges you had. Did that actually suppress where your volumes otherwise would have been? And if that was the case, is that business that, when your system's operating, easily comes back? Or can you kind of give us some color on how to understand the volume situation?
spk04: Well, Mark, I think the way to think about the, you know, I was looking at what we sort of put in our outlook in the first quarter call, and we actually had stronger performance than we thought we were going to have. We didn't know, like a lot of people didn't know, the market was going to grow 8%. We had the inability during the quarter, in some cases, to pick up incremental business. We didn't lose any business with our core customer list that was coming into the quarter as businesses. There may be some business that we didn't bid. Most of it is short-term business. So the answer is yes. We have people still calling us today, can you supply me more boxes? In some cases, we can. We just couldn't do it in the second quarter. So I'm not concerned about losing anything permanently. We basically had a classic mismatch between the available capacity in our system and the demand in a 90-day period.
spk06: And when you say the available capacity, is that because your capacity during these nine days were constrained by unusual factors, or basically you were just pretty much running full to your bottom?
spk04: The two factors I mentioned, Mark, in my opening comments, we have more than one quarter of recovery from the winter storm, 140,000 tons that just evaporated from our container board supply chains. the last 10 years. So if you just normalize what was above normal maintenance plus that winter storm, that's a chunk of container work capacity that could not be converted into a box. And that's coming back. It's just going to take a little while to get it back. So what we had available ran wide open. But we had capacity offline for maintenance, and we had the lingering effect of the 140,000 tons from the first quarter. all of those will be significantly improved as we navigate through the second half.
spk06: Got it. And then just on pulp, obviously great price mix showing in the quarter, and you pointed to another, I think it was $60 million or so for the third quarter. Does that pretty much reflect all of the benefit from the pricing that's already happened, forgetting about what happens from here, or the way your contract's set up? Is there meaningful additional lag that might come through based on what happened previously with posted prices?
spk04: That's a complicated question because of the nature of some of these contracts by customer type, by region. Let me just restate what we talked about the last two quarters. A, you could expect quarter-over-quarter improvement in this business, steady improvement margins in this business that reflect the value that PluckPult provides for the end-use customers. So we're taking a very structured, very measured approach to each market segment and to the agreements we currently have in those segments with individual customers. And so as we implement this approach, we would expect that there will be some volume shifts and movement between segments. And our goal is to have mixed improvement, better agreements, with better economics that reflect the value of fluff call. And that is a kind of customer by customer, region of the world by region of the world. And I would expect, and we're making progress, good progress on that. But given the length of some of these agreements and the way they're structured, we should expect to continue to see margins improve over the next several quarters. So that's a long, complicated answer to will we have any more price flow through. It's not just value for this product.
spk06: I appreciate the color. Thank you.
spk00: Your next question comes on the line of Mark Wilde from Bank of Montreal.
spk08: Good morning, Mark. Good morning, Tim.
spk09: Good morning.
spk08: I wondered, Mark or Tim, if you can just help us a little bit with kind of cadencing the pass-through of the spring container board hike, and then I don't think you said anything about this perspective early August hike. So maybe if you could just give us some color around that as well, just as we think about the next couple of quarters and into 2022.
spk09: Hey, Mark. It's Tim. So I think the increase from the fall, as we talked about last quarter, went through a record amount of time. It was the fastest I've ever seen. The pace on the second one, You know, we were kind of expecting a normal historical ramp on it. It seems to be going faster, not as fast as the first, but still faster than what we've seen over time. We'll see, you know, as August comes, we'll see how that one plays out. But, you know, right now we see our fundamentals looking very strong. We see strong demand and, you know, You know, as Mark talked about, all of the complications with supply chain are really stretching inventory tighter than they would normally be. So, so far through the first two price increase implementations, we feel really good.
spk08: Well, so can you give us a sense, Kim, of how much benefit from that spring hike you've had in the second quarter and just order of magnitude what we might expect in the third and fourth quarters?
spk09: Yeah, I think if you look at the two of them combined, we'd be about 80% complete on implementation at this point.
spk08: Okay. All right. And then any thoughts on sort of how August would roll in?
spk09: Yeah, I mean, you know, that's forward-looking, and, you know, we feel very confident at the moment, but I don't want to speak to forecasting price at this point.
spk08: Okay. All right. That's fair. Mark, I just want to, as a follow-up, turn to the container board business from just a kind of a supply and demand standpoint. Does this continued strength in global container board demand, is it altering your thinking at all about investing in either bottlenecking projects with existing mills or potentially the timing on that second conversion at Riverdale? And are you also doing anything to kind of gear up capacity on the converting side
spk04: as e-commerce continues to grow as a bigger and bigger percentage of the market that's a great question mark and the answer is you know coming into you know maybe the middle of 2020 we were saying and i was saying we feel really good about our container board capacity we have what we need the amount the type of grades um you know when everything's running we have enough capacity um but everything isn't running every day with colleges and of course events that you don't predict, like that winter storm issue. But yes, we are looking continuously at de-bottlenecking. We've done a bunch of that in the last several years, thankfully, because we need that container board now. We are looking at different options for adding container board into our system. It looks like this kind of demand level is going to be consistent. Remember, we are structured maybe a little bit uniquely in the sense that we bring container board to market through three distinct channels, our own box network, open market in North America to companies that provide a certain service in the box market, have been long-term partners of ours, but we don't make the box, and then our export. So what you have seen and will continue to see is movement of container board within those three channels. And obviously we have favored the U.S. box market as much as we can. not just in the second quarter of 2021, but over time, get the highest possible margins in our business by participating in all three of those channels. Container boards, you're right, is a high-demand product all over the world, both recycled and virgin. We obviously only export the virgin version of it. Box capacity, we've been actively investing. Luckily, with early part of the past period, we've had a lot of opportunities to fill out existing plans by adding single or double lines of box-making equipment. We've built a few plants and we've acquired a couple of partnerships, but there's definitely opportunity for us to continue to invest in our converting network. The other option with converting, as you well know, Mark, is when you know demand looks like it's going to be solid, you can bring on more employees and actually fill out an extra shift in many plants and you've got latent capacity turned into productive capacity. you obviously want to do that when you're pretty sure. And you first do it with overtime, and then you do it with permanent employees. That's a challenge right now, given the labor market dynamics. But we've got several levers to pull to continue to invest in not only box capacity, but the kinds of capability we have. E-commerce-specific assets, for example, is something that we're also willing to market.
spk08: Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Mark. I'll turn it over.
spk00: Your next question comes from the line of Mark Connolly from Stevens.
spk05: Mark Connolly Thanks. Tim mentioned that white paper price mix gave you about $30 million, but when I look at overall revenue per ton in this segment, we've got only a couple of bucks, which implies that maybe overseas price mix was flat or even down. Can you talk about price mix across your system, particularly outside the U.S., on the white paper side, sir?
spk09: Mark Connolly White papers, Mark? Yeah, it's just a little bit muffled coming through. So were you talking about looking forward, Mark?
spk05: No, I'm curious what's happening in the system right now. You know, it looks like you got some gains in the U.S., but you didn't really get much across the entire white paper business.
spk09: Yeah, well, I mean, all the regions were seeing price increases or realization of price increases to some degree. Some of this in other regions started earlier in the year. So Russia was kind of on the forefront earlier in the year implementing a price increase. Brazil as well, domestically. So those are running their course and playing out. Where we still see traction is... in North America and in some of the export markets as well.
spk05: Okay. Okay. That's very helpful. And Mark, just to switch gears completely, I'm curious what your position is on this packaging stewardship legislation that we're starting to see as states try to create incentives to reduce waste. You've pointed to the growth in e-commerce, which some of these states are pointing to as part of the problem. But how do you – we know AFPA is against container boards being included. So how do you think about container board industry responsibility? What should it be if the legislation should not apply to you?
spk04: Well, I think if you look at the legislation in detail, there's a federal view that's kind of in its nascent stage, and there's a state-by-state view. And we are actively working in the state-by-state legislatures. The big issue and the big goal of this extended producer responsibility type legislation was really targeted non-recyclable or hard-to-recycle, in many cases, plastics. In some cases, that has led people to believe all packaging should be included. So the first thing is separating the facts of what corrugated packaging can do. And actually, corrugated packaging can be a solution to the problem because of the high recycling rates. But that message has to get to policymakers, and we work very hard on that. I spend a fair amount of my personal time talking to people about that. And in many cases, it's a new learning mark for people at the local level that there is a completely different story on fiber-based packaging that's made from the renewable resource and a high recycling rate in the 90% range versus many of the other substrate choices. So I think that's the case we're making, that it's actually part of the solution, not part of the problem. But as usual in legislation, sometimes it starts with a blanket, you know, all packaging needs to be managed in a different way and people need to be responsible for their packaging that they put out there when we have a system. So, for example, we spent a lot of time and it's in there right now on the infrastructure that Congress is working on. In that bipartisan agreement they made yesterday, a significant amount of investment in recycling networks in the country is part of that. We'll see if it stays in there, but that's the answer, is improving recycling ways for eating to recycle and reuse materials. That's the value proposition for corrugated packaging, not being included in the intent of some of that legislation.
spk05: That's super helpful. Thank you.
spk00: Your next question comes from the line of Phil Ng from Jefferies.
spk03: Hey, good morning, everyone. You know, appreciating the winter storms was a big hit for you guys. But Tim or Mark, do you expect inventory getting back to a more manageable level for container board and 3Q where you'll be able to better capitalize on the growth we're seeing and get operating costs back to more of a normalized level? I think in the past you've always kind of targeted to grow faster than the market, but any color on kind of getting back on track on that goal?
spk04: Phillip, we think it'll be steady progress. It won't be all solved in the third quarter. We think we'll make steady progress through the second half of the year. We have targeted to grow at or slightly above the market over time. We've really hampered our ability to do that in the last couple of quarters because of the issues you just mentioned. But we will definitely have more options available for incremental growth as we go forward, just based on the fact that we won't have so much of our system down for maintenance. But it will take slow, steady progress month after month through the second half.
spk03: So we should still expect you to lag the market a little bit in 3Q and obviously continue to make progress?
spk04: Not necessarily. Part of what happens in 90 days, that's a pretty short period of time. part of what happens in the 90-day period is your segment exposure and what happens in seasonality if you've got more of this versus that. And so I think you shouldn't – I wouldn't automatically assume we'll lag the market, but I think it will take us the next, you know, second half of the year to get to the point where we feel comfortable that our inventories are more sustainable. I think the first thing we'll see is we won't miss any sales. The second thing we'll see is our costs will come down.
spk03: Super helpful. And in pulp prices, appreciating its volatile nature, its commodity, both softwood and fluff pulp prices really surged this year, but the market appears to have softened up a bit. What's your crystal ball saying in terms of pricing for fluff and softwood pulp globally? And do you have a view in terms of how much inventory levels are in the channel? It's tougher to gauge, just given some of the logistical bottlenecks you guys are seeing in the market.
spk09: Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't want to forecast price looking forward. I talk about how we think about it at the moment, what we believe we're seeing. We're seeing a bit of a pullback in some of the markets, but our view at the moment is that things are more stable than not. And, you know, you have to look at not only the underlying demand levels, but at the transportation difficulties, which are really, in effect, extraordinary. ending supply chains at this point. So you're right, full commodity product, but our view at the moment is this is a bit of a correction, not a complete turn.
spk03: Okay. Super helpful, guys.
spk00: Your next question comes from the line of Adam Josephson from KeyBank.
spk08: Mark and Tim, good morning. Hope you're well. Mark, Mark, one more on pulp, and then I have a container work question. I appreciate your comments that you expect segment margins to improve over the next several quarters. But when I look at the last 10 quarters, it's been a pretty tough slog for the business. And as Phil just said, prices in China have been coming down of late. So I guess what gives you confidence, just given what's happened over the past two to three years, that this is a business in which you have a meaningful competitive advantage?
spk04: Well, if you think about the remarks I made a couple of questions ago about what we're changing in the business versus the last 10 months or the last 10 quarters, that's what gives me confidence that this is a very value-creating material for our business. happen to always extract that proper value that gives us a value-creating return, and that's what we're working on. I think the growth rate will stay solid as economies around the world improve, so there's a growth component, but we're going to run the business in a different way than it's been run before. When we made the decision to invest in the business, it changes the profile of this being a legitimate first-rate business for a company versus in many cases a smaller sideline type of business. And some of that's reflected in some of the way the commercial agreements have been made, and we're working on changing that for the better.
spk08: I appreciate that, Mark. And just one on Boxden, and I think you mentioned earlier in the call that long-term you think the market could be at the high end of that 1% to 2% range that you were talking about. I just want to make sure I understand. Let's say the market's up another 4% this year after 3.5% last year. You're talking about kind of an 8% step change upward post-pandemic in a market that had been growing at 1% per annum. Are you thinking that we're going to stay at these higher levels and grow on top of that, or that there could be some correction as retail sales normalize, and then we'll get back to some kind of growth trend?
spk04: Yeah, I mean, it's hard to predict that with certainty, obviously, but we believe that part of what's happening is the role that fiber-based packaging is playing in general commerce, driven by a few segments, has taken a step change up. And so we think the base will be stronger. It depends on a lot of things, and number one, the structure of the U.S. economy. And so if If there is really action on some of the things that are being learned now around supply chains and global issues with supply chains, and we do have more manufacturing that actually occurs in the U.S. for certain components, I think that will bode well for the business. And how strong the consumer is going forward coming out of this, I think you're looking at maybe what's going to be close to two years of pent-up demand by consumers because of will play a big role in what that growth rate is going to be. I think the data, you know, we have this model we use. I know others have models. There's third parties that have models. A correlation around GDP that has been slightly less has been what's happened in the box market, and we think that'll still stand. And it looks like we're poised to have a stronger consumption-oriented GDP or at least as far as you can see right now.
spk08: Thanks a lot, Mark.
spk00: Our next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn from RBC Capital.
spk08: Yeah, thanks very much. Just a question on Paul. I understand you guys are making some operational improvements, and I'm just trying to balance that with the Q3 guide here where you've got ops and costs up $5 million. So is there something on the cost side that more than offsetting the operational improvement that you're seeing? And then if you could give us sort of a scope as to what the big bogey is out there for, you know, three to five years out in terms of the things that you guys can control, i.e., how much improvement do you expect that segment to have over that period of time?
spk04: On the longer-term part, I'll ask Tim to look for that cost offset part of your question. But on the longer term, we believe the combination of how we operate, so in the manufacturing sector and the cost structure of our mill system, and I've said this before, especially the part that was the legacy IP mill system, which is mostly converted mills from other products versus what we acquire with warehouse, which is mostly all built for purpose, so they tend to have a better efficiency and lower cost. We've got opportunities to lower the cost, primarily in the arrangements, improvements that we're talking about and that we're doing now, you put those two together, we should hit the margin structure to have a solid business above the cost of capital with a slight growth potential. So that's what we are working on, and we see a path to that. It'll be a steady path quarter by quarter, and that's where we're headed. And the question on the cost offset, Tim?
spk09: It's modest, but it's really transportation. I mean, we're continuing... to battle the transportation generals.
spk04: I think part of the transportation issue in this business, Paul, is export port congestion, much more exposed to international ocean freight than the other businesses in the company.
spk08: Right. Thanks very much. That's helpful. Thanks a lot.
spk00: Your next question comes from Neil Kumar from Morgan Stanley.
spk07: Hi, good morning. You mentioned would cost being higher sequentially partly because of the wet weather. We just getting a sense of the magnitude inflation you're seeing there and you said this being more of a 3Q issue or could it carry over into the fourth quarter as well?
spk09: Yeah, it's I mean it's it's really due to having access to. The fiber and being able to get it out of the woods based on the rainfall that we've had so. know we look at very long lead time in terms of how we manage uh wood inventories at mills and across basins and it's really been the gulf states that have been more heavily impacted um by some of the southeastern mills as well so it'll depend on the weather as we go through the rest of this quarter into the fourth but um our inventories are in decent shape but they're a little on the low side and it's just going to cost more to to get the wood out and get it to the mills. Transportation is not helping either. I mean, we referenced inbound materials and whatnot, and that's seemingly impacting everything.
spk07: All right. I think that's helpful. And then in terms of your maintenance college expenses, you're now forecasting $642 million for the full year. I know it's early, but I'm just curious how you're thinking about 2022 maintenance. Do you expect it to step down year over year or generally remain near 2021 levels?
spk09: Well, we're still working through that. I mean, I think a good way to look at it, the way I've looked at it, last year was an abnormally low year. This year is a little bit of an out-of-range high year. When you put the two of them together, it looks roughly in line. I mean, our outages can be anywhere from 500 to... $500 million to a little bit less, or maybe some years a little bit more, pushing $550. Last year, given all the uncertainty we pulled back and curtailed this year, we're catching up on some of those outages from last year. So we put the two of them together. It looks more normal. Next year, we have to finish our planning. We always provide that as we near the end of the year and look into the coming year.
spk07: All right. Thank you.
spk00: Our last question for today comes from the line of Kyle White from Dolce Bank.
spk01: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to talk about some of your end markets in corrugated packaging. How is e-commerce performing relative to your initial expectations at the start of the quarter? Any slowdowns there that you see? How is the recovery in food service going? Just any details on the end markets that you can provide.
spk04: Thank you. On e-commerce, no disappointment, still very, very strong. And then we're getting into the period of the year where you start to build for the year-end. Demand increases as you move toward holiday season. So still a very strong story. We're continuing to invest in that segment. Food service, continuing to improve. I guess there's a question mark about what happens with the Delta variant and COVID-19. and whether everything continues to open, I think a big question or a big potential upside is schools and events start to open. Food service related to those, which obviously hasn't been open during the summer, is another potential upside. If that in any way, shape, or form gets delayed, then the food service growth could slow a little bit. The only segment that I think, and it's kind of predictable, less stocking up of, you know, kind of the center of the grocery store, if you will. So good strong performance across the key segments, and we believe listening to our customers and looking at order patterns, that's continuing as we go into the third quarter.
spk01: That's helpful. And then focusing on transportation, I know it's early, but when you look to next year, do you see any relief or kind of stabilization in transportation costs, or do you anticipate kind of continuing inflation headwinds? Is there anything internally maybe that you can do to provide some relief against these costs?
spk04: Well, internally, the best thing we can do on the cost side is to have our system optimized with the right inventories. And what that means is, you know, make a product in the right factory so that the transportation board for box plants that are nearby, not box plants that are all the way across the country. So that's the number one thing on cost that we can do internally. We don't have our own trucking company or anything like that. It's about really optimizing our supply chain, and there's dramatic improvements we can make on cost. To your first part of your question, I don't know this for sure, but looking at what the analysts that follow the is that there is a belief that labor and some of the impediments to truck capacity and the training that's required to bring on more employees and more assets in the rail industry will get better, that people will want to return to those industries. Many of those companies laid off a lot of people. You can't just bring people back in real. There's required training and other things. Same thing for Trump. And the belief is that that'll get better. So capacity should get better. If the economy stays kind of red hot, it's a good problem to have, but then I think capacity will get absorbed pretty quickly. So the jury's on that, but we think it's really disrupted right now. The velocity is really slow for a lot of reasons. We think part of that, at least on the human labor side, will get better.
spk01: Thank you for all the details.
spk04: Thank you. Let me go ahead and wrap up. Just a couple of takeaways I would... like to leave with investors. First, you heard today that we are really positive on the strong momentum we're building for the second half in both earnings and margin expansion. We're absolutely laser-focused on capital allocation and a balanced approach to that, and we're in very good shape on all elements of our capital allocation framework. And we're very excited about the prospects we have in front of us as we separate IP into two companies and we work on building a better IP going forward. So thank you for your interest in international paper. We look forward to talking with all of you next quarter.
spk00: Thank you for participating in today's international paper second quarter 2021 earnest conference call. You may now disconnect.
Disclaimer