Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Good morning. Welcome to the Ingersoll Rand 2019 Q1 earnings conference call. My name is Tiffany and I will be the operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and then a Q&A session. All calls are on mute. If you would like to ask a question during the Q&A session, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. Zach Nagel, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Thanks, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us for Ingersoll Rand's first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website, IngersollRand.com, where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We are also recording and archiving this call on our website. Please go to slide two. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release. Joining me on today's call are Mike Lamocke, Chairman and CEO, and Sue Carter, Senior Vice President and CFO. With that, please go to slide three and I'll turn the call over to Mike. Mike? Thanks, Zach.

Thanks everyone for joining us on the call today. Our global business strategy is at the nexus of environmental sustainability and impact. The world is continuing to urbanize while becoming warmer and more resource constrained as time passes. We excel at reducing the energy intensity in buildings, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing waste of food and other perishable goods, and we excel in our ability to generate productivity for our customers, all enabled by technology. Our business portfolio creates a platform for the company to consistently grow above average global economic conditions, aided by the strong secular tailwinds that I've outlined. This morning we announced a transaction to separate our industrial businesses by way of a spinoff to Ingersoll Rand shareholders, and then combining it with Gardner Denver to create a leading global industrial company and to maintain our climate control assets to create a premier pure-play climate business. Our pure-play climate business squarely focuses 100% of our portfolio at the nexus of sustainability and impact, where our products and services can have the most significant impact on the global challenges I outlined earlier. The press release and presentation outlining the transaction in detail is on the Ingersoll Rand website under the investor relations section. We also held a joint call with Gardner Denver management this morning at 8 a.m. and replay of the webcast will be available on our website. So I'm not going to spend any time discussing the transaction further on this earnings call. We will, however, be taking Q&A related to both our Q1 earnings and this morning's announcement during our Q&A session following our prepared remarks. Moving to slide four, we're off to a strong start in 2019. Focused and consistent execution of our business strategy enabled us to deliver top tier revenue growth, margin expansion, and EPS growth in the first quarter. We saw strong leverage from both top to bottom on the P&L with 8% organic revenue growth, leveraging up to 27% EPS growth in the quarter. We delivered another quarter of robust revenue growth led by our climate segment despite tough growth comps from the prior year quarter. Climate's 10% organic revenue growth in the quarter was as high as any quarter in the past two years and was compounded on 8% growth in the prior year. Industrial's organic revenue growth was up 3%, representing good growth against the tough 9% growth comp in the prior year. Headline bookings growth for the enterprise and for climate of negative low single digits is driven by a significant year over year decline in bookings isolated to our transport business. Which I'll lay out in more detail in a minute. In order to more fully understand the health of the portfolio, we believe it's constructive to look at the underlying bookings growth trends in each of our key business units. For example, our commercial HVAC North America, commercial HVAC Europe, residential HVAC, and compression technologies North America business reach up in the mid to high single digit range in the quarter. China had flattish bookings in the quarter, but still healthy when you consider the growth comp in the prior year quarter was in the mid-20s growth range. As we expected, transport bookings were significantly lower in quarter one after the extraordinary bookings growth we saw in every quarter of 2018. As an example, in 2018 we booked one and a half years of North America trailer backlog and two years of auxiliary power unit backlog resulting in record transport backlog at the beginning of 2019. With the record backlog and continued underlying market demand, our revenue outlook for transport looks healthy into 2020 with the key constraint being trailer manufacturer's capacity. As you've seen, the ACT data is consistent with this view showing very high levels of demand through their forecast horizon which goes out to 2020. As I mentioned earlier, margin expansion was strong in the quarter with adjusted enterprise margins expanding 90 basis points. We're very successfully mitigating tariff and inflation impacts through price with a price versus material inflation spread of 70 basis points. Operating leverage was healthy at 26% and slightly ahead of our guidance for 2019 of 25%. Overall, our end markets are healthy and performing largely as expected. As we discussed last quarter, we continue to monitor geopolitical uncertainties related to Brexit in Europe and tariffs and trade in China. In quarter one, we also continued to execute our balanced capital deployment strategy. After investing in the business, we deployed approximately $380 million between dividends and share repurchases. Lastly, while it's still early in the year and with the cooling season on deck, we haven't seen anything through the first quarter that diminishes our confidence in our full year guidance. We're bullish on the effectiveness of our strategy, bullish on our end markets, and bullish on our ability to execute in 2019. As a result, we're raising our annual guidance to the top end of our prior adjusted DPS range of $6.15 to $6.35 to approximately $6.35. Please go to slide five. As we discussed in the previous slide, we delivered robust revenue growth led by our climate segment with organic growth across all business units. We also delivered strong bookings growth in virtually all of our key businesses with commercial HVAC North America, commercial HVAC Europe, residential HVAC, and compression technologies all up mid to high single digits. These results reflect continued strong execution of our strategy, capitalizing on healthy end markets. Please turn to slide six. We've outlined a number of takeaways for each major business on the next two slides, and you can read through those for some additional color. The most important thing I'd like for you to take away from these slides, however, is that our outlook by key business is largely unchanged from when we gave guidance in January, and we haven't seen anything that would cause us to change our outlook for the year at this time. Turning to slide seven, again, we've added some comments to provide additional color on the slides, and you can read through those. The key takeaway remains that we didn't see anything significant in quarter one that would change our outlook for the year at this juncture. And now I'll turn it over to Sue to provide more details on the quarter. Sue?

Thank you, Mike. Please go to slide number eight. I'll begin with a summary of a few main points to take away from today's call. As Mike discussed, we drove strong operating and financial results in the first quarter with adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, an increase of 27% versus the year ago period. Our Q1 performance gives us increased confidence in our ability to execute against our full year growth and margin targets. As a result, though it's still early in the year, we are raising our full year adjusted continuing earnings per share guidance to approximately $6.35 at the high end of our prior guidance range. First quarter organic revenue growth was solid in both our climate and industrial segments. Bookings and healthy end markets drove 105% book to bill and generated record backlog for the enterprise. Climate organic revenues were very strong, up 10% building on a Q1 2018 organic revenue growth of 8%. Organic revenues were particularly strong in commercial HVAC North America and Europe. Transport organic revenues were also strong. Residential HVAC and China HVAC were up low single digits and flattish respectively against tough prior year comparisons of low teens growth and greater than 25% growth respectively. As Mike discussed, HVAC organic bookings were strong with mid single to high single digit growth rates for commercial HVAC North America and Europe and for residential HVAC. In our industrial segment, we delivered healthy 3% organic revenue growth compounding on a 9% organic growth rate in the prior year. Organic bookings growth was healthy in the first quarter with compression technologies North America bookings up mid single digits. China growth was flattish with demand strengthening throughout the quarter providing cautious optimism going forward. When we're with investors, we often get questions around free cash flow timing for the year. Consistent with typical seasonality, we are building inventory in the first half of the year to support the expected growth during the cooling season and we expect cash flow improvement to ramp in the second half of the year. Our free cash flow targets remain unchanged. Leveraging our business operating system across the enterprise, we continue to manage direct material, tariff related and other inflationary headwinds in the quarter. During Q1, we expanded adjusted operating margins 90 basis points and delivered 26% operating leverage slightly ahead of our full year expectations. Importantly, we also delivered on our dynamic capital allocation strategy in Q1. We deployed $128 million in dividends and $250 million on share buybacks as our shares continued to trade below our calculated intrinsic value. Looking forward, we expect to consistently deploy 100% excess cash over time. Additionally, our offer to acquire precision flow systems was accepted by the seller during the quarter. Expectations for regulatory approval for the pending acquisition remains unchanged by mid-year 2019. Please go to slide number nine. We delivered organic revenue growth of 8%, adjusted operating margin improvement of 90 basis points and adjusted earnings per share growth of 27%. We drove strong organic revenue growth across all businesses and in virtually all products and geographies. Continued disciplined focus on pricing and productivity actions enabled us to effectively manage inflation and tariff related headwinds and drive margin expansion across the enterprise. Please go to slide number 10. Our climate segment delivered another strong quarter of operating income growth enabling us to drive solid year over year earnings per share growth in the quarter. Our industrial segment delivered solid results that were negatively impacted by a supplier disruption in our small electric vehicles business. Excluding the disruption, industrial adjusted operating margins were up 50 basis points. Of note, our full year industrial margin outlook remains intact. Below the operating income line, other expenses included expected pension cost increases plus a legal settlement related to a legacy business which negatively impacted results by approximately five cents. All in, we delivered strong 27% earnings per share growth in the quarter. Please go to slide number 11. Strong execution drove 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin improvement in the quarter. Price versus material inflation was positive for the fourth consecutive quarter. Pricing expanded margins by 70 basis points reflecting strong carryover price from 2018 and incremental pricing actions in 2019. Consistent with our full year expectations, we delivered productivity to exceed other inflation. We continued to reinvest heavily in our business. Incremental Q1 investments of approximately 50 basis points were fairly evenly weighted between growth and operating expense reduction projects. Please go to slide number 12. Our climate segment delivered another strong quarter with 10% organic revenue growth and adjusted operating margin expansion of 130 basis points. Consistent with our expectations, results were strong across the segment. Please go to slide 13. Our industrial business delivered solid organic revenue growth of 3% against a tough comparison of 9% growth in Q1 of 2018. As I mentioned previously, our industrial segment margins were negatively impacted by a supplier disruption in our small electric vehicles business. Excluding the disruption, industrial adjusted operating margins were solid, up 50 basis points. We expect the supplier disruption to be resolved during Q2 with full year industrial margin expectations unchanged. Please go to slide 14. We remain committed to a dynamic capital allocation strategy that consistently deploys excess cash to the opportunities with the highest returns for shareholders. We maintain a healthy level of business investments in high ROI technology, innovation, and operational excellence projects, which are vital to our continued growth, product leadership, and margin expansion. We have a longstanding commitment to a reliable, strong, and growing dividend that increases at or above the rate of earnings growth over time. We continue to make strategic investments in acquisitions that further improve long-term shareholder returns like the pending PFS acquisition announced during the quarter. We are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and triple B rating that provides us with continued optionality as our markets evolve. We continue to see value in share repurchases when shares trade below their intrinsic value, and in Q1 we deployed approximately $250 million. Please go to slide 16. With the extraordinary bookings in our transport business in 2018, we thought it might be useful if we gave a bit of background in what drove the outsized orders and how to assess the impact to the overall enterprise. During 2018, tight trucking capacity and the use of electronic driver logs drove strong demand for Class A trailers throughout the year. Additionally, the tax law changes under the U.S. Tax Cuts and Job Act further incentivized trucking companies to invest in their fleets. With such strong demand, OEMs experienced capacity constraints driving trucking companies to place orders months in advance. As the trucking companies placed preorders for trailers, they also placed preorders with us for trailer refrigerated units and auxiliary power units. As Mike mentioned earlier, we've booked one and a half years of trailer unit orders and two years of auxiliary power unit orders resulting in record transport backlog at the end of the year. With the record backlog and an underlying healthy market, our revenue outlook for transport is healthy into 2020. Please go to slide 17. Since Q2 of last year, we have effectively managed both material inflation and tariffs delivering price cost margin expansion in each quarter. With that track record, we frequently get questions around our price cost outlook for 2019, and I'd like to give you some background to understand how we expect price costs to play out. First of all, we're off to a good start in Q1. With strong carryover price from 2018 and incremental 2019 pricing actions, price costs delivered 70 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter. As we move into Q2, our -over-year pricing comps get tougher, and by the time we get to the back half of 2019, we'll be lapping our full pricing actions from the prior year. Any incremental price at that point will be mainly from 2019 pricing actions. For the inflation part of the equation, we expect continued commodity inflation in Q2. We expect moderating inflation in both Tier 1 materials and Tier 2 components in the second half of the year. During 2018, tariffs ramped throughout the year with the implementation of Section 232 tariffs, followed by Lists 1, 2, and 3 Section 301 tariffs. As such, we won't fully lap current Section 301 tariffs until Q4 of this year. All in, we have successfully managed inflation in tariffs, and we expect to continue to do so through purposeful, active use of our business operating system. Net, we continue to expect 20 to 30 basis points of positive price versus cost in 2019. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.

Thanks, Sue. Please go to slide 18. In summary, we're pleased with how 2019 is shaping up. We expect to deliver strong revenue, EPS, and free cash flow in 2019. Looking forward, we believe the company is extremely well positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns over the next several years. Our global business strategy is at the nexus of environmental sustainability and impact. The world continues to urbanize, while becoming warmer and more resource constrained as time passes. We excel at reducing the energy intensity in buildings, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing waste of food and other perishable goods, and we excel in our ability to generate productivity for our customers, all enabled by technology. We've been investing heavily for years to build franchise brands and to advance our leadership market positions to enable consistent, profitable growth. We have an experienced management team and a high performing culture that breathes operational excellence into everything we do. And lastly, we're committed to dynamic and balanced deployment of capital, and we have a strong track record of deploying excess cash to deliver strong shareholder returns over the years. And with that, Sue and I will be happy to take your questions. Operator?

As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Again, we do ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Your first question comes from a line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Hey, Jeff.

Hey, Mike. I was on the first half of the first call this morning and not the back half. I looked through some of the notes, but I was wondering if you could just spend a minute or two to kind of talk about the range of kind of strategic comparatives for kind of new climate company and, you know, obviously not mentioning things by name. But, you know, where do you see the portfolio headed? What are, you know, some of the interesting opportunities maybe beyond the kind of excellent organic execution that you've had?

Yeah, Jeff, first to you and all the folks on the call today, thanks for we're occupying a lot of your time today. So thanks for the coverage and for following us. The answer to your question, really the strategic comparatives don't change for climate. The strategic focus around being able to really pinpoint the strategy, the investments, and really create the most agile structure that we can come up with from a customer perspective is critical. And then we'll continue to invest like we have in innovation and in the channel. So nothing changes. It's a sharper focus, you know, on running faster and being successful.

And just a quick nuance on the separation costs. It appeared when GDI was mentioning the $450 million cost to achieve, they mentioned $100 million separation costs for IR. I'm a little confused by that. Are they somehow eating or absorbing, you know, the stranded costs associated with your side of the equation? Could you clarify that?

Yeah, Jeff, no, that's not what they were intending. So the $450 million is the cost to achieve the synergies. And then they have an additional $100 million that is their advisors and their cost to actually separate the Ingersoll Rand and include the Ingersoll Rand businesses and all their stuff. So in other words, they'll have tax and all of those things as well. And then it came out that way simply because they're taking the name. But that is their cost, one-time cost of the transaction and the $450 million is the cost of achieving the synergies. Okay, great. Oliver Thayer, thank you.

Your next question comes from live, Nigel Coe with Wolf Research. Your line is open.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Mike, I know you want to keep this kind of more on the quarter and the outlook. But again, I wasn't on the Q&A portion of the quarter as well. But I'm a bit curious, maybe as to what to see when we look at the free cash conversion for the past few years, was there a significant difference between climate and industrial? And I'm just, I guess my question is, how does standalone train free cash flow look on a go-forward basis?

So the answer, Nigel, is there's not a significant difference between the climate businesses and the industrial businesses. So what we challenge the businesses with, and actually they deliver, is achieving 100% of operating income as their operating cash flow. And then as I look through that and convert operating cash flow into free cash flow, you know, again, they're both in sort of that 1% to 2% range on capex. From a tax rate perspective, I would call tax for climate to be slightly on the lower end of our range and industrial slightly higher. But what you end up with, as I parse through all of that, is that both of those businesses deliver about 100% of net income on free cash flow.

Nigel, I would say that once we get closer to the actual effect of the spend and Climaco giving some guidance, clearly the quarterly working capital will change a bit because of the seasonality of the business. But other than that, it's exactly right on point with 100% or better conversion, which is the goal.

Understood. Thanks, Mike. And then just switching to Rezzy, you know, you've maintained a low single digit growth. Sounds like two Qs starting off okay, but if we maintain this kind of weather pattern through the summer, would we expect to be more in a low single digit zone? And then on top of that, have you seen any market share shifts so far this year?

We've seen a good market so far this year, and, you know, even with the weather being less supportive, it was still a good quarter for us. So good revenue growth in the quarter, good bookings, good margin expansion, new regulations, I'm sure helping with that, and also some pricing opportunities on new furnace rugs. In terms of share, really, if you look at any rolling 12-month period, pretty much any quarter over the last four years, we've gained share, and we would have gained share again over the last rolling 12 quarters. So I think it will be the fifth year in a row that we'll see pretty significant share gain again. Okay, thanks,

Mike. Thank

you.

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning, Steve. Good morning. Just I wasn't – I also was not on the call this morning. I'm just curious as to the timing of this. I mean, I know that this is something that probably was evaluated, you know, several years ago when you split off Legion. I don't know if somebody already asked it earlier in the morning, but what was kind of the mindset around why now?

Yeah, I think that when you look at the company today, the disenergies that we see are about $150 million in terms of how we integrated the company from, you know, manufacturing to sourcing to engineering to shared services. And so spinning off a company without something of scale to merge with and develop synergies is a pure headwind. So, you know, when you find a situation like this, you've got a $250 million synergy opportunity, not including the growth side of this, but 250 on the cost side of this thing. It's really fully offsetting, you know, any headwind we have on the disenergies, also avoiding that public company duplicate startup, you know, cost around that and then allowing us to really streamline the way we go to market, you know, in the climate space, Steve. So, you know, it takes some timing, you know, some valuations that work. The math has to work and it takes a willing and good partner. It takes confidence on both sides that the management team going forward can execute on the strategies. So that is our confidence in Desente and the go-forward industrial company team, as well as our confidence in the management team at Climaco being able to execute that. So, you know, all things point to the right valuations, right timing, and the right partner to be able to affect a net positive versus a disenergy number in the math.

What's your updated thoughts on the, I guess, the daily question around HVAC industry consolidation? I know that, you know, your view in the past has been, you know, you can't kind of narrowly define it as, you know, just U.S. markets. You know, do you think kind of an open playing field here on that front or, you know, after further review, there aren't a lot of opportunities?

Well, nothing's changed in our view that we've been talking about for two or three years around this in terms of the market and consolidation and what can happen between willing partners that want to do that. But I will tell you that strategically it's the same place we were and we don't need to do something. We could if it made sense for shareholders. I think we've got great optionality either way it goes. But it does create a much sharper focus and ability for us to think about being just faster in everything that we do, you know, from a customer and from an innovation perspective. And I mean, to me, it's really exciting to think about what's possible going forward as a sharper focused climate company.

Okay. So one last one. Can you just I know you don't want to do quarterly orders guidance, but just should we just think about like the comps for the rest of the year and model that out? I mean, it can be lumpy. Is there any unusual lumpiness that you want to, you know, get out in front of for the second quarter just to kind of set expectations? I know the negative 3%, you know, was, you know, a little bit weaker than I was expecting. But just curious as to how you see the pipeline kind of playing out over the course of the year. So I think we should think about for second quarter on the climate order front.

Yeah, thanks to the question. That's why we try to give a bit more color this quarter around the other pieces of this because when you think about, you know, the North American business, both res and commercial, it was really an excellent quarter again. You know, mid to high single digit growth rates, North American unitary, particularly strong. We saw strength in office. We saw strength in industrial and as a subset of that, so data centers driving that component. We see the manufacturing warehouses, labs as well. Applied, no surprise there, that continues to be running incredibly well with great backlog and great order rates. Even China sequentially, and this would apply both to the industrial businesses and the HVAC businesses, showed sequential progress in the quarter where we came out of March with strong bookings and some healthy optimism around that. You know, Europe was a little bit weaker, but there's a lot going on in weaker, I mean Europe. And, you know, I think that from a HVAC perspective in Europe, we'll continue to capitalize on the megatrends that are driving growth outside of sort of the general economy. But it has impacted things around transport and some of the industrial economy in Europe as well. The industrial market seemed to be doing okay as well. There again is a moderation in China, which we thought was positive. US industrial productivity remains strong, capacity utilization is at record levels in the US. Cat box projections in the US are low single digits, so it supports our forecast there. In the EU, the PMI didn't decelerate further, so that's I guess a bit of a win that it sort of flash-rode, flattened. In China, PMI is still down again, but it was up sequentially, so, you know, things are looking better, I think, in China. And

Steve, if I can add a broad comment on top of the excellent color that Mike gave, if you think about transport orders throughout 2018, they got tough comps going, you know, in all of those quarters. I would also say that if you think about the enterprise and where our growth came from in 2018, the second quarter, I don't care which business you have, is a tough comp when you look at it. So again, that's not to indicate that we're not going to have great bookings growth, but those tough transport comps are going to be there. And the second quarter was a particularly high enterprise type of growth in 2018, so tough comps. Okay.

Thanks for the comment.

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barcraze. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. Where is your line? Maybe a first question on the incremental margins firm-wide. I think you said they were around 26% in Q1, the year's 25. Included in the guide, though, is the sort of moderation from price, cost, tailwind to margin. So maybe just explain, you know, what countervailing factors kind of step up through the balance of the year to offset that diminishing tailwind from price cost.

So Julian, as you think about it, what is going to happen in actuality is you're going to start lapping the price in the second quarter. So in other words, you know, the great pricing that we saw carry over from 2018 into 2019, you know, as you go throughout the year, you've got tougher compares on the overall pricing dynamic, which is why we talked about that price cost really sort of moderates as you go throughout the year and gets you back more into that, you know, 20 to 30 basis points spread type of environment. And, you know, and again, you've got, you know, a first quarter. We'll see what happens as we go into the cooling season. But it really is the pricing comparisons and, you know, the material inflation sort of staying where it's at.

Oh, sure. But does the maybe the tailwind from volume mix or the tailwind from productivity, does that step up later in the year? And that kind of mitigates the shrinking tailwind from price cost.

Yeah, as always, the productivity, we're going to get more ideas as we go throughout the year and it does ramp up. So it balances throughout the portfolio between price and material inflation and productivity and other inflation.

Yeah, Julian, I guess the last thing I say is, you know, if there's a place probably in your guidance where there could be opportunity, it's certainly in price cost, which we continue to surprise ourselves with, you know, what we're able to affect there and still continue to gain share in the process. So, you know, we're careful about that, but that's going very well.

Thank you. And then just the second topic. So you emphasize transport, order comps very tough throughout the whole year. That's very clear. Just on the revenue side of transport, just wondered how you were thinking about that this year, maybe just parse out kind of expectations around the Americas. And then I think in MIA, you'd thought about a flattish market previously for this year.

Yeah, so I guess I would start the conversation by saying that, you know, with the amount of backlog that we built in North America trailer and in APUs throughout 2018 and again in the first quarter of 2019, we've got, you know, really solid footing on revenues going into 2020. So the only point on the tough comps was that there wasn't just one quarter of transport booking. So I would expect, just as you said, that we'll see, you know, strong North America revenues coming off of the backlog that we have in North America and APUs. Europe is, you know, going to be slightly impacted by Brexit and perhaps not as strong with the backlog and the overall order. So I'd say transport is going to have a very good year in 2019 and 2020.

Yeah, Julie, I think one way to think about it is a little bit like the applied business right now. You're booking this backlog. You've got great visibility into it. We take out the noise of the compares on the bookings because of transport. You end up with this mid single digit revenue stream, which looks pretty solid through 2020.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Richey with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning again and congratulations again, everyone.

Thank you, Joe. Thanks.

So I want to piggyback on that price cost question, Sue. I just want to make sure I understand what's embedded in the guide for this year. And so at one point, I think even last quarter, you guys were expecting a step up of 25% on the tariff side. So I wanted to make sure that that was still part of the guidance. And then secondly, what are you anticipating from a pricing standpoint, moderating commodity inflation this year?

Yeah. So as you think about how we thought about price cost going throughout the 2019 period is, we obviously had some tailwind coming off of the 2018 pricing. And, you know, we obviously have left the tariffs that we put in the original guidance in. So they might have moved out a month and that might have created a little bit of, you know, less material inflation, if you will, in that guidance, but it's not significant. So, you know, again, what we talked about when we gave the guidance and what we've continued to talk about is that, you know, if the tariffs don't materialize, you know, our pricing will adjust. If the tariffs materialize or they're greater or there's more inflation, we'll adjust as needed. But the pricing that's in there is our normal pricing for what we see. And again, if the tariffs don't materialize, we'll not do price increases to cover something that didn't actually happen, if that makes sense.

Yeah, I know that makes sense. So appreciate the clarification. And if I could piggyback on some of the order discussion that we've had so far, Mike, you mentioned in your prepared commentary that China commercials strengthened through the quarter. I was wondering if you can maybe just provide a little bit more commentary around what commercial HVAC did regionally throughout the quarter as we exited.

Yeah, I mean, starting with China, it's demand strengthened throughout the quarter. And it's a testament to what's been happening with the direct sales strategy to drive those above market rates. In China, generally, you know, we saw acceleration in even auto and pharma. So that was a positive. And there was less concern both in HVAC and in the compressor business around exporter activity. So it's certainly a more positive, constructive environment there. The rest of Asia, with the exception of Taiwan, is pretty good for HVAC. So, you know, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, you know, all Thailand, you know, all positive. And just Korea is a bit weak for us there. Europe continued to outperform the market. It's not really so much connected to GDP as it is connected to regulations and around some of the transformation there. We're doing very well in Latin America, but it's difficult because if you think about the currency translation there, you get hurt in a lot of places. But it's a healthy business in Latin America from an organic perspective. And the U.S. continues to be strong and I think will stay strong for the balance of the year in all aspects of the HVAC business. Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from line of Andrew Oben with Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Yes. Good morning and congratulations on the deal and great quarter. Just a question on orders, not to get this sort of horse to death, but given how tough the comps get, particularly in the second half, should we expect a couple of more negative comps on orders this year? Overall, orders turning negative for the company. Bookings.

Inferring is hard, Andrew, because we don't really forecast sort of that way around orders. We're just looking around the pipeline, so I don't know if you've gotten the math on that.

Yeah. I think, Andrew, when you think about it, if you just did modeling with those comparisons, you've also got a large HVAC order that was in Q4. So if I pulled that out as well as the transport pieces, again, you're going to get enterprise bookings that are going to average out. So I don't really see an issue with that in the back half of the year. So what I pointed out to you is that transport had heavy orders throughout the year in 2018 and tough comps, that the overall business had a really excellent booking quarter in the second quarter, but also the fourth quarter had the large commercial HVAC order. So if you take that noise out of there, I think we have very good bookings. And if you think about Q1, I mean, you had Q1 bookings that exceeded our revenue, the 105% ratio that bookings ratio, -to-bill ratio that I talked about. So I wouldn't get concerned about that. I think it's just more color for your expectations. Yeah,

Andrew, I think to that point on color, we'll just need to provide more color because I don't think the story is going to be in the headline bookings. It's going to be understanding the health of the components and HVAC on a totally different trajectory and globally on a different by region trajectory than it would be for transport in North America, which has gone through a heck of a boom here in the 18, early 19 timeframe. So we'll give more color to help you understand that.

And as I said, I also missed the Q&A portion of the earlier call, but can you talk about what have given the more concentrated portfolio focus on HVAC, what's happening with the CCCV and, you know, the New York grocery, the RF market in North America? Thank you.

Well, it's been a great success, the JV itself. So it's been something that I'm glad we did. In fact, I'm heading to Japan next week and look forward to sitting down with the CEO and going through performance at this point. But we couldn't be any happier with what has transpired at this point in time. Really, in our view, number one in the market, particularly where we participate together, we're number one. And the dynamics are the same, where you're seeing good ductless growth in the U.S., slightly above the ducted revenues. You're seeing ducted revenues outside the U.S. and typically ducted markets growing faster than ductless revenue. So it goes to the theory that at the end of the day, it's going to be companies and channels that can sell a full suite of products and services that are going to win. So we're very happy with that joint venture and I would say succeeding expectations.

But effectively, within this product category, you're going to do everything within the context of this venture, within that technology, right? You're not going to do something by yourself.

Well, we do a lot by ourselves today. I guess that probably helps to put some color on that. For really sort of the premium end of the market, trained Mitsubishi is what we're going with. For the entry-level point in the market, we've got everything from making it ourselves, doing both variable refrigerant and variable water flow systems, along with ducted offerings in Europe that we produce ourselves all the way through to some source product we use in various applications around the world. But when we think about the premium offering, it's going to be a trained Mitsubishi offering for us. Terrific. Thank you for clearing it up. There's a lot of segmentation here, which is I appreciate the question, because that is an important factor, is understanding the segmentation of the market and make sure we've got a product and a solution for every part of the world and every price point that we need to plan. Thanks a lot.

Your next question comes from the line of John Walsh with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning and congratulations on the transaction announcement this morning.

Thanks, John.

You know, I guess just thinking about the industrial margin impact from the supplier disruption, should we put another $4 million in our model for Q2 or would you expect it to be less than that?

No, we killed that in quarter one, so no, we're good to go. I wouldn't put anything in the model. That one's complete. Run the ground.

Gotcha. And then, you know, just thinking about the good growth we've seen in climate last year, this year, you know, over the last several years, I mean, how is the supply chain on the climate side of the house? I mean, are there pockets where things are stretched or do you feel very comfortable that you have all that taken care of?

Well, I mean, this has been a factor, I think, competitively, and I think we've been able to win by being able to have the capacity or at least change the playbook and have the playbook with different tack times to be able to hit different customer demand patterns. And so this has played out well and I'm really proud of what our whole team has been able to accomplish there. And it's been tremendous growth and we've reacted well to that. With that being said, sure, I mean, you've got suppliers that are stressed and, you know, in some situations, you know, we're needing to pay extra close attention and some situations where we're needing, where we can to be able to carry more inventory.

Maybe just one last quick one. Didn't hear any commentary around controls and what that did in the quarter and the trend you're kind of expecting there.

Yes, services and controls are actually continuing both the CTS business and the HVAC business globally exceed equipment growth rates. The strategies there are working and, you know, our controls growth rate continues to be kind of the double digit growth rate. And it's not unusual. I mean, everything you're seeing in terms of products and systems today, going as a system, you know, controls in our view is really, you know, part and parcel to a system that we sell.

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you,

John.

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Weiss with Baird. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, everybody. And I want to extend my congrats on the deal as well. Just had a couple of cleanup questions here on climate. So I guess relative to overall segment margin expectations for 19, would you expect any of the sub businesses to have any sort of outsized margin performance in 2019? Or do you think all three sub segments expand margins kind of similar to the overall segment? And then secondly, what was price realization in climate in the first quarter relative to the 10 percent organic growth? Thanks.

Yeah, I think, Tim, you're saying for res commercial and TK, do we do we do we expect margins to increase? And we do across all three of the sub portfolios and climate to your second question. I think we're looking for an answer on that.

I'm trying to realize.

Yeah, I think price realization was good. We wouldn't provide a specific break out of what exactly what our price numbers.

OK, OK. Yeah, I guess my first question is more of I think all three businesses will expand. But but is there any sort of outsized margin performance in any one of the businesses or should they all kind of expand at a similar level?

It depends on who you ask. If you ask the president's running the business, they'll tell you it's really outsized. But from our point of view, they're all doing what they need to be doing and they're doing a great job. So no, no, there's nobody. There's three gold medals. That's what we're going to hand out at the end of the year.

OK, sounds good. Good luck on the rest of your here. Thank you.

Your next question comes from a line of Steve Volkman with Jeffries. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, guys. This is my question to answer. But, Mike, I'm wondering just a very big picture question around cyclicality of the global HVAC business. You know, obviously, some investors are thinking we might be toward the peak of the cycle. Things continue to seem pretty good. You've mentioned a number of kind of secular changes, whether it's energy or regulations or anything like that. But just how would you encourage us to think about cyclicality of the remainder as we go forward now with the next iteration of your life?

Yeah, well, I'd say cycles are not telling the story anymore. I mean, you've got to look at the regulations and what's happening in various parts of the world. You've got to think about, you know, a billion more people coming into the middle class and needing air conditioning and the demands on power and the grid and sustainability of all that. You've got to think that, you know, 15 plus percent of greenhouse gas emissions are happening through HVAC systems. And if you fast forward and we do nothing about it, 25 percent would be through air conditioning in homes and buildings by 2030 on that larger population urbanizing. So the way to solve that, I mean, you know, is to do what we're doing. I mean, you know, we alone with the technology we have today can cut out 2 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions just by doing what we're doing today by 2030. You can imagine if 50 other companies joined that, you wouldn't have a problem or at least the problem would be totally recast. So I think this is totally different. And then if I take it down to sort of ground level today, I mean, this is also why the services businesses are so critically important to us to help, you know, kind of these mini cycles around what happens with office building or institutional in one part of the world or, you know, some geopolitical disruption in a part of the world. You know, we'll have to deal with those. But long term, you know, whatever those sort of mini cycles are, the trend is up and to the right about what needs to happen in the world between now and say 2050 for that matter.

OK, that's a good color. Thanks. And then just one real specific one, maybe for Sue, is there anything that happens with respect to this transaction? Is there any impact on free cash flow or your ability to repurchase shares as we go forward?

So the answer is no, there's no impact on free cash flow and no, there's no restrictions on our ability to buy back shares if the price is below our intrinsic value going forward. No.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from a line of Josh Paculinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning, good afternoon, guys. Hey, Josh. Just to follow up a little bit on, you know, some of the RSI questions from earlier, you know, understanding that, you know, there's a competitor out there who's, you know, kind of fighting to reclaim some share. How does that color your view on what pricing does over the balance of the year? And Mike, how do you feel about inventories in the channel right now? I know, you know, some of that is company owned and you manage that, but, you know, maybe from the independent side, you know, what's your sense on loading levels versus normal?

Yeah, I mean, it is normal for us. You know, if anything, you know, you might have seen, well, it depends on what competitor is launching the furnace platform, when and when their pricing increases go into effect and you can get some disruptions from quarter to quarter. But, you know, the right way to look at that is not quarter to quarter. It's over a longer period of time, over only four quarters makes a lot more sense on that. You know, with all that being said, you know, I continue to like our strategy. We've continued to penetrate the market with brands at various price points, with staying in front of regulations, with full utilized, very efficient, you know, plant and supply chain structures. So we're going to keep on doing what we're doing and, you know, competitors are going to do what they do. But frankly, through the first quarter, everything looked great. I mean, sort of price of realization, cost position, bookings, revenue, you know, there was nothing but positive news there from our point of view.

Got it. And then just shifting over to commercial, obviously, you know, some great order intake, especially in 2018. I think some large projects you called out, particularly in the fourth quarter, if I remember right, should we think about those converting, you know, a little lower margin, at a little lower margin, you know, this year, just given that there's probably some, you know, third party source content, you know, etc. And, you know, if so, what does that look like? When does that happen? You know, any color around, you know, what that margin mix, when those hit, would be helpful.

Yeah, the easiest way to think about that is those larger projects really have the kitchen sink costed into them. So on a contribution basis, we're making sure it's created with the margins that we're trying to post from an -of-income standpoint. So the gross margins may be lower, but you're talking about all-in costs and to execute. So I don't think you see any dip, you know, in operating margins.

Okay. Perfect. Thanks for the talk.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from a line of Nicole DeBless with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning.

Hey, Nicole. Good to hear from you again.

Yeah, likewise. So I guess maybe starting off with climate, I know you guys aren't updating your organic growth outlook for the full year, but obviously organic growth came in really strong in the first quarter, and so five to six is looking a little bit conservative for the full year, particularly since the comps don't really get a whole lot harder. So if you could just comment on, you know, the potential for climate to surprise to the upside throughout the rest of the year.

Well, there's a lot of year left. You know, when you're talking about something less than 15% in the quarter, you know, I think there's a natural hesitation to go out and win. I think it's given us the confidence to raise the top end of our guidance, but I think we really need to see something more than the second quarter. You're really looking to see July and August, too, to, you know, dramatically change that, Nicole. But I think the first leg of this is a lot of confidence in the first quarter to go to the high end of the range. That's not something we typically do.

Okay, totally understood and definitely fair. And then I guess the second one, just a tie-up question on the deal. So the synergy guidance that you guys have provided for the industrial business, does that include PFS synergies or would those be separate?

It's all in. It's assuming that PFS with our industrial portfolio is merged into Gardner Denver and the total of all of the combination is $250.

Got it. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Dean Dre with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Ed, my congratulations.

Hey, Dave. Morning.

Hey, I just wanted to follow up on the question on PFS. And maybe this got covered in the Q&A earlier, the first call this morning. But is it fair to consider that PFS was the missing piece of the puzzle in order to qualify for the RMT?

No, it wouldn't have anything to do with the RMT structure. I mean, the way that two important strategic assets would be looked at, had to be looked at independent. So when you think about PFS being something that for a long time we thought was a great fit with our fluid business, we had to be prepared in that process and that process's timing and to be successful. And then concurrently and somewhat in parallel as we're having discussions with GDI around the RMT structure, you're thinking about, well, look, if I'm successful one way or the other, depending on the timing, does it make sense in combination, if you will, the three businesses, you know, GDI's business, PFS's business, and our industrial segment? And the answer was yes. We felt like, look, you know, we need to get after that asset because there's no guarantee that we come to an agreement with GDI. And if that's the case, we're going to go build a bigger fluid management organization and go forward. And if we did, then it's going to be even more productive in terms of putting that combination together, particularly with their medical segment, which is a lot in common. So we figured we couldn't really lose in that. So we had to work within the process as we were working it.

That's real helpful. And then is there, are there any contingent liabilities or any encumbrances on Climate Remain Co. in doing the RMT? I would imagine that if something were to happen to the tax-free treatment, that would come back to Climate Co. Is there any, are you restricted on any asset sales or, you know, just take us through some of those nuances?

Yeah, it's, the answer to your question is no, there's no restrictions to us, but it is complex and nuanced. And, you know, to have a full sort of discussion on this, it would depend on the situation itself. And it's probably, you know, best left toward the end of the transaction or maybe into disclosures. But to answer your question broadly, no, there's no encumbrances or restrictions about how we run the company going forward.

Great. Just last one, just sort of a structural question for Sue. Is it fair to say there'll be three segments reported in the Climate Co.?

TBD will do some work on how we want to, you know, structure all of that going forward, Dean. So don't have a definitive answer on that, but we'll come back to you as soon as we do have one of those. I'd also like to add on your previous question, the tax-free nature of the SPIN is really a condition of the actual transaction closing, not anything that would impact the climate business. You know, if that tax-free nature didn't happen, it would impact the transaction, not Climate Co. That's helpful. Well, thanks,

Sue. And, Dean, maybe to piggyback on the segment question. I mean, the way that we think about this is an opportunity to create an organization that is how we want to manage the organization, how we want to lead the organization in as efficient and agile a way as we possibly can. From that, some segmentation will pop out of that, but you really got to go through the hard work of looking at all the designs going forward. And frankly, that's the exciting part of what we're doing. We really could take a clean sheet of paper and think pretty boldly about that. And then however the segmentation spills out of that will be the way we run the business.

Sounds good. Thank you. Thank

you.

I will now turn the call back over to Zach Nagel for closing comments.

I'd like to thank everyone for joining today. And as always, Shane and I will be available in the coming days to take any questions that you may have. So have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.