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spk08: Good morning, thank you for attending today's Independent Realty Trust Incorporated Q3 Earnings Conference call. My name is Forum and I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will remain muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to pass the conference over to our host, Lauren Torres.
spk01: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to review Independence Realty Trust's third quarter 2022 financial results. On the call with me today are Scott Schaefer, Chief Executive Officer, Ellen Nalen, Chief Operating Officer, Farrell Ender, President of IRT, and Jim Sebra, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being webcast on our website at irtliving.com. There will be a replay of the call available via webcast on our investor relations website and telephonically beginning at approximately 12 p.m. Eastern time today. Before I turn the call over to Scott, I'd like to remind everyone that there may be forward-looking statements made on this call. These forward-looking statements reflect IRT's current views with respect to future events, financial performance, and the merger with Steadfast Apartment REIT, which will be referenced herein as star. Actual results could differ substantially and materially from what IRT has projected. Such statements are made in good faith pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please refer to IRT's press release, supplemental information, and filings with the SEC for factors that could affect the accuracy of our expectations or cause our future results to differ materially from those expectations. Participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures during this call. A copy of IRT's earnings press release and supplemental information containing financial information, other statistical information, and a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most direct comparable GAAP financial measure is attached to IRT's parent report on the Form 8-K available at IRT's website under Investor Relations. IRT's other SEC filings are also available through this link. IRT does not undertake to update forward-looking statements on this call with respect to matters described herein, except as may be required by law. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott Schaefer.
spk14: Thank you, Lauren, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I would like to begin our call today by thanking our on-site teams who played an integral part in ensuring the safety of our residents and communities that felt the effects of Hurricane Ian in Florida and the Carolinas. I'm happy to report that we did not experience any significant damage to any of our properties. And now onto our results. In the third quarter, we delivered 11.5% combined same-store NOI growth and 33% core FFO per share growth on a year-over-year basis. We attribute this strength to our portfolio concentration in non-gateway markets in the attractive Sunbelt region, where demand continues to outweigh supply. In addition, we achieved double-digit average rental rate growth of 13.3% in the quarter. We continue to balance occupancy and rental rate growth to maximize revenue for the long term. To that point, this rental rate growth combined with the start of eight new value-add projects in the third quarter put some pressure on occupancy, but locked in attractive lease rates, generating a strong revenue earn in for 2023. As of today, our occupancy is 95.4% in our non-value add communities. Over the past quarter, and as part of our capital recycling strategy, we entered into agreements of sale for two communities, one in Louisville, Kentucky, and one in Terre Haute, Indiana. We also acquired a community in Charlotte, North Carolina, and another in Tampa, Florida, expanding our footprint in these attractive markets. And we entered into a joint venture for the development of a community in Las Colinas, Texas, which is part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area and is experiencing strong job growth and population migration. These are all exciting opportunities to grow the portfolio in core IRT markets that have favorable fundamentals. We believe it is important to be patient and selective as we allocate company capital in the current economic environment and will only acquire new communities or invest in joint ventures as part of our capital recycling strategy. We are also making progress with our value-add program, having renovated 795 units this year and achieving a return on investment of 27.1%. While we remain excited about our value-add program and the increased units to be added from our merger with Star, we expect to moderate our plan in 2023 by delaying the start of renovations at communities in new value-add markets until we have better clarity on the state of the economy. Currently, we expect to complete between 2,500 and 3,000 units next year. While acknowledging current macroeconomic uncertainty, we at IRT remain confident in our portfolio and strategy that will enable us to continue to drive outsized returns. Our confidence is underlined by the following. First, real estate fundamentals remain strong, and we are encouraged about our position in the multifamily sector. Second, we have an optimal portfolio footprint across key Sunbelt markets that continue to see significant migration and job growth, and we expect to outperform during all points of market cycles. Third, this position of strength has been further bolstered by the Star merger, which has added scale in our top markets as well enhanced our operating platform. Fourth, as you can see with our performance year to date, we continue to successfully execute our portfolio strategy, combining the creative leasing activity with progress on our value-add renovations and capital recycling initiatives, all which will ultimately drive long-term value for our business. And finally, all of this has been done while achieving the most robust balance sheet in IRT's history, a true signal of strength as we move forward through the current operating environment. With all that said, we are reiterating our full 2022 guidance that we previously raised for combined same-store NOI growth of 13.75% and core FFO per share growth of 28%, each at the midpoint of our guided ranges. Looking forward, it is important to note that we expect 2023 to be a year of continued NOI and core FFO per share growth and provide a more detailed outlook for the next year during our year-end earnings call. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Ella for an operational update.
spk07: Thank you, Scott. We delivered a solid third quarter led by our ability to drive rent growth in our markets. As Scott mentioned, our average rental rate increased 13.3% in Q3, which is even stronger than the 12% increase delivered in Q2 of this year. More specifically, markets where we saw the highest lease-over-lease effective rent growth in Q3 were Tampa at 22%, Myrtle Beach at 21%, Atlanta at 15%, and Dallas at 14%. To put it in perspective, our markets with the lowest rent growth were Chicago, Birmingham, and Houston, but they were still averaging 9% to 10% rent growth in the quarter. These rental rate increases put some pressure on our Q3 occupancy levels, along with the addition of eight new properties which started value-add renovations in the quarter. In response, we offered some upfront concessions to fill vacant units and balance our occupancy goal with our rent growth goal. This was a strategic decision to lock in a higher rental rate as we head into the end of the year and considering the economic uncertainty. These efforts increased our occupancy at our same store non-value add communities to 95.4% as of today. Looking at rental rate trends in the fourth quarter to date, New leases for our combined same-store portfolio have increased 7.1%, while renewed leases are up 8%. For a blended lease-over-lease rental rate increase of 7.7%. This lease-over-lease rent growth in Q4 2022 is in line with our guidance and is on top of the 14.2% growth delivered in the fourth quarter of last year. Our favorable loss to lease stood at 12% as of September 30th. giving us continued pricing power in 2023. We continue to see good retention throughout the portfolio with a Q3 average resident retention rate of 57%. While our Q4 resident retention rate is 50%, it's still a bit early, and we expect it to rise over the coming months as our residents make their renewal decisions. The rate at which residents who are moving out to buy or rent a home is declining, and stands at approximately 18% of move outs for Q3 2022. This is down from approximately 21% in Q2. For the residents who are moving into our communities, we continue to see good demand and demographic statistics. New residents over the last 90 days have had an average income of approximately $90,000 with 22% migrating into our markets from other states. We continue to see in-migration from the West Coast Northeast, and the Northern Illinois markets. I echo Scott's comments that we believe we are well positioned for continued growth into 2023 with our earn-in, loss-to-lease, and solid rent or demand fundamentals in our markets. I would like to now turn the call over to Farrell to provide you with an update on our investment opportunities.
spk06: Thanks, Alice. I'd like to first provide an update on our longstanding Value-Add program. In the third quarter, we completed renovations on 457 units. For these completed renovations, our renovation cost was $14,022 per unit, and these units achieved on average a $262 per unit increase in monthly rents over comparable unrenovated units. This yields an unlevered return on investment of 22.4%. Year to date, we've completed 795 units and achieved a return on investment 27.1%. For full year 2022, we now expect to renovate approximately 1,400 units. Down from our previously guided target of 1,800 units, this change is primarily due to a significantly higher retention rate on our unrenovated units at our value-add communities. Beginning in the fourth quarter and throughout 2023, we will be including an additional 10 properties to our value-add programs. These 10 properties are comprised of 3,350 units, and we expect to achieve a return on investment with these properties consistent with prior value-add projects. As Scott mentioned earlier, for 2023, we now expect to renovate between 2,500 and 3,000 units. We made the decision to delay some renovations at communities mostly located in new markets where we do not yet have established renovation teams on the ground. So starting these is not a question of if, but rather a question of when. Now onto our capital recycling program, which is focused on building our presence in markets with strong fundamentals and exiting properties with less attractive growth opportunities. As of the quarter end, we had two properties, one in Louisville, Kentucky, the other in Terre Haute, Indiana, classified as held for sale, with the sale of the Louisville property closing yesterday. These dispositions are expected to generate an aggregate sales price of approximately $103 million and expected blended cap rate of 4.7%. Regarding acquisitions, we expanded our presence in Charlotte, North Carolina by acquiring in August a recently constructed 234-unit multifamily community for $80 million. In September, we acquired a 348-unit multifamily community in Tampa for $98 million. This community was built in 2012 and is an ideal candidate for a value-add program in a top market position for long-term consistent growth. Combined, these properties were purchased at a blended, stabilized economic cap rate of 5.2%. And lastly, we entered into a joint venture for the development of a 275-unit multifamily community to be built in Dallas, Texas. More specifically, the property is located in Las Colinas, a master-planned community with residential and retail space as well as 25 million square feet of office space, home to over 30 Fortune 500 companies. We expect this project to be completed in the third quarter of 2024 and have committed to invest an aggregate $25.6 million into this joint venture, of which 9.3 was funded last month. Currently, we have $100 million committed to six different projects with $71.5 million funded to date. We expect the opportunity to purchase these communities as they complete construction and stabilize between late 2023 and late 2024. Before turning the call over to Jim, I'd like to provide some brief information on our expectations for new deliveries in our submarkets for 2023. Currently, COSTAR has projected new unit deliveries in our submarkets based on our weighted average exposure at 2.2% of existing inventory, dropping to 1.8% in 2024. The vast majority of these new deliveries are Class A, which do not compete directly with our well-located infill Class B communities. Asking rents at newly built communities on average are priced $521 per month higher than our communities. Additionally, we do not solely evaluate the growth in supply for our markets, but we also consider growing demand. Over the past several years, our submarkets have experienced robust demand for apartments, and that trend is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024. Currently, CoStar expects demand for apartments in our markets to grow by 2.3% in 2023 and by another 2.4% in 2024. I'd like to now turn the call over to Jim.
spk13: Thanks, Cheryl, and good morning, everyone. Beginning with our third quarter 2022 performance update, net income available to common shareholders was $16.2 million, as compared to $11.5 million in the third quarter of 2021. During the third quarter, core FFO grew to $64.3 million, up from $22.7 million a year ago, and core FFO per share grew 33% to $0.28 per share, up from $0.21 per share in Q3 2021. This growth is a result of the earnings accretion associated with our merger with SAR, as well as the sizable organic rent and NOI growth we've experienced throughout the combined portfolio this year. We started 2022 with two key goals. First, we sought to fully integrate the operations of SAR, and second, secure the identified synergies and related accretion. We're excited to remind you that we've accomplished both of these goals and are delivering 33% core FFO per share growth year over year. IRT's third quarter combined same-store NOI growth was 11.5%, driven by revenue growth of 10.6%. This growth was driven by a 13.3% increase in our average rental rates. While this NOI growth includes value-add communities, we did see similar NOI growth of 11.9% at our same-store non-value-add communities, which reinforces the fundamental strength of our core markets. On the property operating expense side, combined same-store operating expenses grew 9.1% in the third quarter, led by higher repairs and maintenance and utility costs, as well as higher real estate taxes and property insurance. The increase in repairs and maintenance, as mentioned last quarter, was driven mainly by the timing of projects, as well as inflationary pressure on both supplies and services for unit terms. The increase in real estate taxes is primarily driven by some appeals we won in Q3 last year, causing our expense last year to be lower than normal. We continue to be focused on managing expenses and inflationary pressure, and are excited about some of the centralized initiatives we are rolling out now that will save us approximately $2 million a year in future payroll costs. Now turning to our balance sheet, as of September 30th, our liquidity position was $326 million. We had approximately $24 million of unrestricted cash and $302 million available on our line of credit. At the end of September, we settled in full the 2 million shares that were previously sold on a forward basis under the ATM program. The forward shares were settled at the weighted average sales price of $25 per share, and IRT received net proceeds of $50 million. At quarter end, our net debt to EBITDA was 7.2 times, down from 8.2 times a year ago, and we continue to target low sevens by the end of this year and mid-sixes by year end 2023. The proceeds from our upcoming sale of our two Health for Sale assets will be used to repay outstanding indebtedness and will increase our liquidity by approximately $50 million. As you think about managing the portfolio through a dynamic macro environment in the near term, it is important to stress the strength of our capital structure. In addition to a strong liquidity position, our debt refinancing that was completed in July enhances our financial flexibility with 90% of our debt fixed under hedge and with 90% of our maturities in 2026 and beyond. Regarding our full year 2022 outlook, we are maintaining our guidance for combined same-store NOI growth of 13.75% at the midpoint. We are raising our core per share growth guidance by half a penny to $1.07 and a half a penny at the midpoint. While we're slightly lowering our property revenue growth guidance to 10.7% at the midpoint, We're also lowering our projections for operating expense growth to 5.5% from 6.3%, both also at the midpoint. This better reflects our performance today and greater clarity on expenses for the remainder of this year. Looking ahead to 2023, we expect inflationary pressure to impact various expenses, including payroll, repairs and maintenance, and contract services. We see lease-as-a-lease rent growth moderating, but given our strong rent growth in 2022, we have a 5% earning that will contribute to 2023 revenue growth. Our operating focus will include the further implementation of automation and realization of efficiencies within our business. We will provide full-year 2023 guidance in February, but to note that we expect 2023 to be another year of growth for both NOI and core FFO per share. Now, I'll turn the call back to Scott. Scott? Thanks, Jim.
spk14: As we enter the last two months of our calendar year and the anniversary of our merger with Star, I'd like to reiterate the confidence we have as a team in our expanded portfolio, which has undoubtedly strengthened over the past year as we seamlessly integrated Star and exceeded our initial expectation for annual synergies. I'm proud to say that we have successfully executed our strategy under volatile market conditions and continue to invest in our business while delivering 33% core FFO per share growth on a year-over-year basis in our most recent quarter. Going forward, we will remain disciplined in our capital allocation efforts, which will be focused on continued debt reduction and selective investments in our value add and capital recycling programs. We are also committed to driving shareholder value and returning capital to our shareholders. This was proven earlier this year when we increased our quarterly dividend payout and put into place a share repurchase program. IRT is incredibly well positioned to succeed in the multifamily space due to the strength of our dedicated team and our 121 communities across resilient, high-growth markets. We thank you for joining us today and look forward to seeing you at NAREACH ReadWorld Conference in San Francisco next month. Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.
spk08: Absolutely. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If, for any reason, you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by 2. Again, to ask a question, press star one. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. Our first question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Brad, your line is now open.
spk11: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Can you walk through how demand looks currently? Are we at a normal sort of seasonal level? And then on the concessions, are those at what you would consider to be a normal seasonal level as well?
spk06: On the demand side, as I mentioned in the call, I mean, what we're seeing from a high level is demand matching up with supply overall. Obviously, every market's a little bit different. And we're seeing in some of our smaller markets, your Myrtle Beach, your Wilmington, Huntsville, maybe getting a little bit ahead on the supply side. But our larger markets like Dallas and Atlanta and Denver, you know, they're seeing 2% to 3% supply with, you know, significant population growth that should be able to more than, you know, meet the supply.
spk13: Yeah, I think, Brad, this is Jim. This is just timing there. I think, you know, if I was right there, I think, you know, with respect to Q4, I think, you know, certainly the level of, You know, normal, I would say pre-COVID seasonality has returned to the business, but we still see good leasing demand for our units given a lower expiration curve in Q4. You know, we do, we certainly do kind of obviously track all that stats and look at it every period. The concessions that were offered were offered in September and early part of October, and we're not offering concessions currently.
spk11: Okay, got it. Thanks. And then Jim, maybe sticking with you, you know, the fourth quarter guide implies a pretty low OPEX figure. I know you mentioned that the third quarter number was affected by the comps from the prior year. So is that improvement largely just comps? And then you gave a little commentary on 2023 OPEX, but, you know, is there any sort of direction that you can give us? Would you expect it to be higher than this year or lower than this year?
spk13: Yeah, good question. I want to try to not answer the 2023 question. But I think for 2022, the big change is just real estate taxes. We received some relatively high assessments. We pushed back pretty aggressively and are getting some good feedback and some good results from those assessments with the tax assessors. And as a result, we've modified guidance for the year, given that new intelligence around real estate taxes. So that's a real kind of big change. In terms of 2023, we certainly see the inflationary pressures continuing on some of those key categories, repairs and maintenance, utilities, et cetera. Probably in the kind of the mid single digit growth ultimately for next year. But, you know, I would say that's kind of in line with where we are this year. But as I mentioned, we're excited about all these efficiencies of rolling out some of these centralization services that will even help us, you know, further kind of keep those inflationary pressures in check for next year.
spk11: Okay, thank you.
spk08: Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Austin Werschmitt with KeyBank Capital Markets. Austin, your line is now open.
spk03: Hey, good morning, everybody. I just wanted one quick follow-up to Brad's question on concessions. Were those concentrated within the value-add pool or any specific markets? Just any additional detail you could offer up?
spk14: No, they weren't really. Well, yes. Let me start over. They were concentrated in properties where we saw higher vacancy, and they were upfront concessions in order to jumpstart occupancy and get it back to where it has historically been, which we have accomplished. And the important thing is that those concessions have now ended and have largely burned off. So from this point forward, you know, it's a full rent collection, you know, for the next 12 months.
spk03: Got it. Appreciate the detail. And then Scott, you kind of highlighted that economic uncertainty, you know, drove the decision to dial back the renovation, you know, goals for 2023. But is the 2,500 to 3,000 units the right pace of redevelopment just for the current size of the portfolio? Or do you envision ramping to that 4,000 units if and when sort of the fog of uncertainty begins to lift?
spk14: I do anticipate ramping to the 4,000 once the uncertainty is behind us. You know, and we just felt, Austin, that, you know, occupancy is, it's obviously a headline risk. I mean, you look at all the questions that we've received on occupancy. And the value add clearly puts pressure on it. I mean, if you think about it, every unit that turns, when we start the value add process within a community, every unit that turns goes vacant for 30 to 35 days. And that clearly has a downward pressure or puts a downward pressure on occupancy. So in the current environment, we decided that we were going to dial it back a little bit. And all we did was we eliminated largely the markets where we were beginning the value-add process and didn't have any historical experience or work going on. So that way we did not have to go out and build teams to do the – because remember, we do it all in-house, largely in-house. We didn't have to go out and build value-add teams in those markets, again, with the fog of uncertainty that you mentioned.
spk03: So you've talked historically about stabilized occupancy, I think, in the mid-95% range. How do we think about that value add pool of what the right level of occupancy is as sort of the size of that moves around and you look to manage occupancy for the overall portfolio?
spk14: Well, I think if you look at the portfolio, you know, excluding the value add, we're at 95.5% today. We are 94, Jim, what is it, 94.2?
spk13: Yeah, average for the third quarter.
spk14: So, you know, it's about 120 basis points on the portfolio as a whole. But I think if you then look at the value add, it's about 92. So, it's about a 3 to 350 basis point, you know, reduction in occupancy because of the value add process.
spk03: Right, right. Okay. And then just a last one for me. I guess you've referenced returns on redevelopment. You know, you expect them to be consistent with the prior value-add projects. Returns did come down a bit this quarter from the elevated levels you've achieved. So, one, can you remind us what the targeted returns are for redevelopment? And, you know, could we potentially see those returns reaccelerate to where you were previously achieving, I think, 30% plus, given sort of concessions have been dialed back at this point?
spk14: So, historically, our target has been 20%, and we have exceeded that over the last 18 months, as you point out, by a significant amount. We think it will normalize in that 20% range, and the real reason that I believe that it got as high as it did was because we saw, obviously, tremendous rent growth across the portfolio, including the value add, and we had not yet experienced some of the inflationary pressure on the expenses or on the costs. So now we have a little bit more cost and some of the rent growth is moderating, but we fully expect it to stay in that 20% range. And again, it's unlevered, so it's still very attractive returns.
spk03: No, understood. Thanks, John.
spk08: Thank you. Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi. Nick, your line is now open.
spk15: Hey, guys. Thanks. Good morning. It's actually Nick Kerr on for Nick Joseph right now. And so two quick ones for me. First, you touched on a little bit of the 5% earn in. Just sort of what the current loss to lease looks like as well.
spk13: Yeah, current loss to lease in the portfolio is 12%.
spk15: Okay, great. And then sort of on the renovation, so just wondering if those returns do come in lower than expected, how easily can you guys pull back on that if, say, there's like an occupancy disruption or something along those lines?
spk06: Pretty easily. I mean, it's definitely heavily managed. So as we did during COVID, we were able to pull back pretty significantly. We would do the same if we see costs increase significantly or premiums drop.
spk09: Great, thanks.
spk15: And then just one last quick one is, what are you seeing on cap rates on dispositions and sort of where those are in the market today?
spk06: Yeah, I would say, you know, in the third quarter, you know, we were seeing cap rates between 4 and 5%. You know, there's not a lot of data points. There are transactions, but obviously substantially less than there have been in past quarters. It's a little bit trickier now with the run-up in the 10-year. as people don't really know what their debt costs are. So we'll have to see. But, you know, our capital recycling, we sold at a blended, you know, five, four, five on the two deals, and we're buying at a blended five, two.
spk05: Super helpful. Thanks, guys. Yeah, thank you.
spk08: Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Neil Malkin with Capital One. Neil, your line is now open.
spk04: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. First one, on the demand side, I guess, particularly in migration, you mentioned you continue to see strong inflows, which is great. There's been some conversation or rhetoric about potentially a reversion of that in migration as, as companies, you know, kind of reinstitute return to office. I do not think that's going to happen. But can you maybe talk about, you know, that, you know, I guess in migration as a whole, if anecdotally or from, you know, people on the ground and data or something, you're seeing that there, there might be some a little bit of a reversion in migration, or if it continues to kind of just chug ahead at a very impressive rate.
spk06: I'll let Ella talk about anecdotally if there's anything she's hearing about from our teams on the ground. But just looking at the data that we're looking at, we don't see a slowdown in the Carolina markets, the Florida markets, your Dallas, Atlanta. I mean, everything we're looking at showing that population job growth is going to be pretty consistent and continue in those markets.
spk07: And to follow on that also, pre-COVID, there was already a positive in-migration to our markets for all the reasons that people saw. Jobs were being created. Businesses were moving there. They tended to be business friendly. A lot of our states had no state income tax. So during COVID, there was an acceleration of that as people moved into those markets and basically worked, played, and taught and exercised from home. That will probably moderate, but we'll still continue to see, and we still continue to see people moving in from other markets to find a quality of life and also to find a good job opportunity.
spk04: Yeah, totally agree. Thanks. Other one is on leasing trends. So two things. First, What are you sending out for renewals in November, December, January? And the second part is now that you kind of got occupancy back up and there's less exposure, concessions are gone, what are you getting on or asking for new leases? And could we actually see a slight uptick to close out the fourth quarter with those sort of short-term pressures alleviated?
spk13: Yeah, I mean, good question, Neil. I think, you know, we're seeing, you know, kind of generally speaking, you know, similar rent growth trend in terms of what we're sending out for renewals and new leases as what we've already previously disclosed for the fourth quarter. You know, there might be something now that occupancy is back to that kind of mid-95 level. Excuse me. We'll probably see a slightly kind of uptick in that, but it'll be on the margin in terms of overall changing the ultimate kind of lease over lease effective rent growth for the quarter.
spk09: Okay, thanks a lot.
spk08: Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. John, your line is now open.
spk02: Thank you. Can you comment more on the discrepancy and occupancy between value-add and your overall portfolio? When you look at prior quarters, the difference is like 20 basis points, now it's 400.
spk13: Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, I think what Scott said, you know, normally, you know, we look to see, you know, from a management of occupancy, you manage occupancy in that kind of mid-95% range. Value-add does have an initial kind of, you know, impact to it. So, you know, in response to Austin's question earlier, you know, kind of how we think about occupancy at the value-add portfolio is, you know, typically averaging around that 92% range.
spk14: I think the important factor is that it's when you start the value-add process at a community, every unit that turns becomes vacant. And since we started eight new projects, every unit that turned at those communities was vacant for the better part of a month or a little bit beyond. Whereas a couple of years ago, or last year, most of the value-add work was being done at communities that were in the program for a number of years. So there were less and less units turning and being vacant for the value-add process because we had already done a lot of them. Hope that makes sense.
spk02: Okay. Yeah, it does. I was wondering if it was taking longer to turn the units over, you know, just supply chain issues or labor issues. If it is, it's not quite much.
spk05: It's got quite a bit of volume now.
spk02: Will you talk also about reducing the renovation program for next year due to higher retention? But I was wondering if there was reluctance from renters to pay, you know, significantly higher rent today than, you know, maybe a year ago.
spk14: We're not seeing any pushback from renters.
spk07: Especially on the value add because we're delivering a quality home. We're in essence delivering an apartment home that looks like an A but priced at a B. So there's a lot of demand for them.
spk02: All right. Okay. On the acquisitions you discussed, you discussed the cap rates. Those closed August, September. Since then, rates moved up, I think, 60 basis points or more. Can you comment on where pricing would be today on those assets and how deep or competitive the bidding process was?
spk06: Yeah, I mean, so for high-quality assets in good markets, there's still a pool of buyers. There's definitely not as many. I mean, I would say that, you know, Cap rates trail the Treasury, so I would imagine that there'd be some increase in cap rates. There just haven't been any real data points or closings in the past two weeks as the 10 years run up. It's pretty challenging because now it's dropped back down to four. So again, what we're seeing in this market is buyers just don't know what their debt costs are going to be. So it's challenging to commit to any price when you don't know what your overall returns are going to be. So that's what's limiting the amount of buyers. But there's still some opportunities out there. There are people that, you know, if you didn't buy in the second half of last year, there's still a lot of profit to be taken. So we do see people testing the market. It's just unclear right now what cap rates are going to settle out in this quarter with the run up in the Treasuries.
spk02: Just one final question. In a couple weeks, there's going to be the November vote, and on the ballot, Orange County, the Rent and Control Ordinance is on it. I'm just wondering how involved you are in the fight against this proposal and any other commentary you could have.
spk14: So fortunately, we have only one asset in that county. A group of landlords got together and did challenge Um, that ballot initiative and the judge that's there ruled to allow it to go forward on the ballot, but also ruled that it's contrary to existing law and basically told the landlords that if it's if it's approved, you know, you'll have your opportunity to fight it in court because it is contrary to to existing law in that state. So it remains to be seen. You know, I think. you can look at this ballot initiative, you know, throughout time, and it really is a failed initiative. So, you know, if it passes, it'll be fought. And again, fortunately, we only have one asset, so we're just watching it closely. Appreciate it.
spk02: Thank you. Sure.
spk08: Thanks. Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays. Anthony, your line is now open.
spk12: Hi, good morning. I think you mentioned that the average income for new residents is $90,000, which seems like the top quartile income. So curious where that has been in the past and where you think that metric can go in the future.
spk13: Yeah, I mean, good question. That is a statistic for all the newly, just for the new residents that have moved into our communities over the last 90 days. That statistic has been generally rising slightly. Historically, maybe a year ago, it was 78,000, I think was the number. And before that, maybe early part of 2020, it was 72,000. So it's been steadily rising as, I guess, wages have been rising as well.
spk12: thanks and maybe one more on supply i think you talked about kind of the broader supply metric the demand metrics in your markets uh are there any markets where you think supply could actually be a challenge or and also are there any markets where you think supply risk is overstated so again our smaller markets you know your huntsville your wilmington's your myrtle beaches um you are having elevated supply and we are seeing that i think it's short-lived i mean i think by 2024 um
spk06: We'll be through that. Some larger markets that have some supply concerns are Nashville and Houston. But again, the amount of people moving to those markets should absorb that, but they are elevated in those markets. Our larger markets are Atlanta, Dallas, and Denver are really only seeing 2% to 3% supply growth, which is pretty healthy.
spk12: Thank you. That's all I have.
spk08: Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Linda, your line is now open.
spk00: Hi, good morning. What's your sense of real estate taxes next year? I know increases are appealed and volatile, but any view of how we should think about this headed into 2023?
spk13: yeah i mean um again we'll give formal guidance in february 2023 but you know some of the initial indications is that you know real estate tax growth for next year is going to be in that kind of mid single digit range again four five six percent um you know there was some talk earlier this year where we were seeing some of the high uh reassessments coming in from the tax assessors that you know given the movement in the market that you could actually see maybe uh uh negative tax growth next year. I don't think that's likely, but we're thinking it's kind of in that mid single digits right now.
spk00: Got it. And then in terms of the 2,500 to 3,000 communities you're renovating in 2023, what's the process of getting a renovation team in place?
spk06: Well, we have them in place. That's the beauty. I mean, these are markets like Atlanta, Tampa, that we have teams built out in place. So it's just a matter of, you know,
spk05: growing those teams slightly to absorb the additional properties that were added to the value-add portfolio.
spk00: Got it. Thanks.
spk08: Thank you for your question. The final question comes from Mason Guell with Baird. Mason, your line is now open.
spk10: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. How are we looking to optimize revenue going forward? Are you looking more to push occupancy during a seasonally softer period or really focus on pushing rates by capturing your loss to lease?
spk14: We're always looking to balance the occupancy with the rent growth. And we have a revenue management system and team in place that is constantly looking at available units in the market versus competitor pricing and our pricing. and just making sure that, you know, we balance the two while still capturing the rent growth that's available. You know, as we look back into the third quarter, you know, we kind of saw the volatility and we saw the tail off, you know, coming in the fourth quarter and we pushed rents a little bit harder through the end of the third quarter in order to capture as much as we could and to build that earning into 2023. And it put a little bit of pressure on occupancy. But, you know, as we've indicated, we were able to, you know, quickly rectify that. And, you know, we're now, again, at a very stabilized 95.5% occupancy in the non-value-add communities. And that's our goal, is to stay in that 95% to 96% range while capturing as much revenue growth as the market will allow.
spk10: That's all for me. Thank you.
spk14: Thank you.
spk08: Thank you for your question. This concludes our Q&A session, and I will now pass back to our management team for closing remarks. Thank you.
spk14: Thank you all for joining us today. I want you all to have a good rest of the week. Jim wants me to say, you know, go Phillies, because obviously we're here in Philadelphia and we're very excited about our baseball team. But again, thanks for joining us, and we'll talk to you again next quarter.
spk09: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
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