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spk14: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gartner's third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm David Kahn, SVP of Investor Relations. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After comments by Gene Hall, Gartner's chief executive officer, and Craig Safian, Gartner's chief financial officer, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. This call will include a discussion of third quarter 2023 financial results and Gartner's outlook for 2023 as disclosed in today's earnings release and earnings supplement, both posted to our website, investor.gartner.com. On the call, unless stated otherwise, all references to EBITDA are for adjusted EBITDA with the adjustments as described in earnings release and supplement. All contract values and associated growth rates we discuss are based on 2023 foreign exchange rates and exclude contributions related to the first quarter divestiture and the 2022 Russia exit. All growth rates and jeans comments are FX neutral unless stated otherwise. All references to share counts are for fully diluted weighted average share counts unless stated otherwise. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP numbers we use are available in the investor relations section of the garter.com website. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, certain statements made on this call might constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's 2022 annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as well as in other filings with the SEC. I encourage all of you to review your risk factors listed in these documents. Now, I'll turn the call over to Gartner's Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall.
spk05: Good morning and thanks for joining us today.
spk02: Gartner drove another strong performance in Q3. We delivered high signal-digit growth in contract value. Revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS came in above expectations. Free cash flow in the quarter was excellent. The external environment remains volatile and uncertain. The tech sector is still adjusting to post-pandemic demand. The banking industry continues to grapple with rising interest rates. Supply chain challenges are still impacting many industries.
spk04: There's heightened geopolitical volatility and more. Leaders know they need help, and they know Gartner is the best source for that help.
spk02: Gartner delivers actionable, objective insight that drives smarter decisions and stronger performance on our clients' mission-critical priorities. Whether they're thriving, struggling, or anywhere in between, Our insights, tools, and advice often mean the difference between success and failure for leaders and the enterprises they serve. We continue to be agile and adapt to the changing environment. Research continues to be our largest and most profitable segment. We guide leaders across all major enterprise functions in every industry around the world. Our market opportunity is vast across all sectors, sizes, and geographies. We estimate our opportunity at around $200 billion. In the third quarter, we continued to help clients with a wide range of topics, such as cybersecurity, data analytics, artificial intelligence, remote work, cost optimization, and more.
spk04: In the third quarter, research revenue grew 5%.
spk02: Subscription revenue grew 8% on an organic basis. Total contract value growth was 8%. Contract value for enterprise function leaders continue to grow at double-digit rates. We serve executives and their teams through distinct sales channels. Global Technology Sales, or GTS, serves leaders and their teams within IT. GTS also serves leaders at technology vendors, including CEOs, chief marketing officers, and senior product leaders. GTS contract value grew 7%. GTS sales to enterprise function leaders performed well in the quarter. GTS sales to leaders at technology vendors were affected by technology sector dynamics and tough year over year comparisons. We expect sales to technology vendors will return to normal growth rates over the next 12 to 18 months. Global business sales, or GBS, serves leaders and their teams beyond IT.
spk04: This includes HR, supply chain, finance, marketing,
spk02: sales, legal, and more. GBS contract value grew 14%. Through a relentless execution of proven practices, we're able to deliver unparalleled value to our clients. Our business remains resilient despite a persistent, complicated external environment and tough compares for the technology vendor market. Partner conferences deliver extraordinarily valuable insights to an engaged and qualified audience. This will be the first full year of in-person conferences since 2019. We're having a great year. In-person attendance and advanced bookings are at record levels. The fourth quarter is off to a great start, and our outlook for the year remains strong. IT Symposium Expo is our flagship conference series. I recently attended this conference in Orlando. Attendance was strong. Our sales teams were highly engaged with clients and prospects. and feedback from the conference continues to be excellent. Gartner Consulting is an extension of Gartner Research. Consulting helps clients execute their most strategic initiatives through deeper extended project-based work. Consulting is an important compliment to our IT research business. Consulting revenue grew 23% in the third quarter with record results in contract optimization. Given the strong performances across our business, We've increased our 2023 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow.
spk04: Craig will take you through the details. We're well positioned to have a strong close to the year and get off to a fast start in 2024. In closing, Gartner achieved another strong quarter of growth.
spk02: We deliver unparalleled value to enterprise leaders and their teams across every major function, whether they're thriving, struggling, or anywhere in between. We're essentially agile and continuously adapt to the changing world. We know the right things to do to be successful in any environment. Looking ahead, we are well positioned to continue our strong record of success far into the future. Our client value proposition and addressable market opportunity will allow us to drive long-term, sustained, double-digit revenue growth. We expect margins will expand modestly over time. and we generate significant free cash flow well in excess of net income. Even as we invest for future growth, we'll return significant levels of excess capital to our shareholders. This reduces shares outstanding and increases returns over time. With that, I'll hand the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Sapien. Thank you, Gene, and good morning. Third quarter results were strong with high single-digit growth in contract value. Revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow were better than expected with outstanding performance in consulting and disciplined cost management. With strong results in the quarter and good visibility into Q4, we are increasing our 2023 guidance. Third quarter revenue was $1.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year as reported, and 5% FX neutral. In addition, total contribution margin was 68% compared to 69% in the prior year as the 2022 hiring catch-up continued to flow through the P&L as expected. EBITDA was $333 million ahead of our guidance and about in line with last year. Adjusted EPS was $2.56, up 6% from Q3 of last year. And free cash flow was $302 million. We finished the quarter with 20,253 associates, up 6% from the prior year and 1% from the end of the second quarter. We remain well positioned from a talent perspective as our associates continue to move up the 10-year curve. Research revenue in the third quarter grew 6% year-over-year as reported and 5% on an FX-neutral basis. Subscription revenue grew 8% on an organic FX-neutral basis. Non-subscription revenue performance was similar to Q2. Third quarter research contribution was 73% compared to 74% in the prior year period as we have caught up on hiring and return to the new expected levels of travel. Contract value or CV was $4.7 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 8% versus the prior year. The third quarter last year was a very strong research quarter with outstanding performance across most key metrics. CV growth is FX neutral and excludes the first quarter 2023 divestiture. CV from enterprise function leaders across GTS and GBS grew at double-digit rates. New business with enterprise function leaders increased double digits as well. CV from tech vendors grew low single digits compared to mid-teens growth in the third quarter of 2022. Quarterly net contract value increase, or NCVI, was $101 million. As we've discussed in the past, there is notable seasonality in this metric. TV growth was broad-based across practices, industry sectors, company sizes, and geographic regions. Across our combined practices, the majority of the industry sectors grew at double-digit rates, led by the transportation, services, and public sectors. We had high single-digit growth across all of our enterprise size categories other than the small category, which has the largest tech vendor mix and grew low single digits. We also drove double-digit or high single-digit growth in the majority of our top 10 countries. Global technology sales contract value was $3.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 7% versus the prior year. GTS-CV increased $65 million from the second quarter. Wallet retention for GTS was 102% for the quarter, which compares to 107% in the prior year when we saw a near record high for this metric. IT and enterprise function leaders' wallet retention remained above historical GTS levels during the third quarter. GTS new business was up 7% versus last year. New business with IT enterprise function leaders increased mid-teens compared to the prior year. GTS quota-bearing headcount was up 5% year-over-year. With the dynamic territory planning we introduced a few years ago, the catch-up hiring we did last year, and our teams moving up the tenure curve, we're well positioned for growth moving into 2024. Our regular full set of GTS metrics can be found in the appendix of our earnings supplement. Global business sales contract value was $1 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 14% year over year. All of our GBS practices grew at double-digit or high single-digit rates other than sales, which grew mid-single digits. Growth was again led by supply chain and HR. GBS CV increased $36 million from the second quarter. While retention for GBS was 108% for the quarter, which compares to 114% in the prior year when we saw one of the highest ever results for this metric. GBS new business was up 10% compared to last year. GBS quarter-bearing headcount was up 10% year over year. This excludes headcount associated with the Q1 divestiture. As with GTS, our regular full set of GBS metrics can be found in the appendix of our earnings supplement. Conferences revenue for the third quarter was $57 million, ahead of our expectations during a seasonally small period. We delivered strong growth for the conferences we held in Q3 compared to the same conferences in 2022. The calendar shifted significantly from 2022 to 2023 with the return to in-person. Contribution margin in the quarter was 36%, consistent with typical seasonality and reflecting investments for future growth. We held nine destination conferences in the quarter, all in-person. Third quarter consulting revenues increased by 24% year-over-year to $133 million. On an FX neutral basis, revenues were up 23%. Consulting contribution margin was 37% in the third quarter. Labor-based revenues were $100 million, up 10% versus Q3 of last year as reported and on an FX-neutral basis. Backlog at June 30th was $180 million, increasing 15% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis with continued booking strength. Our contract optimization business is highly variable. We delivered $33 million of revenue in the quarter, with some of the revenue pulled forward from the fourth quarter relative to our prior outlook. Consolidated cost of services increased 8% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and 7% on an FX-neutral basis. The biggest driver of the increase was higher headcount to support our future growth. SG&A increased 8% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and 7% on an FX-neutral basis. SG&A increased in the quarter as a result of headcount growth. EBITDA for the third quarter was $333 million, about in line with last year. Third quarter EBITDA upside to our guidance primarily reflected revenue exceeding our expectations in consulting and prudent expense management. Depreciation in the quarter of $25 million was up modestly compared to 2022. Net interest expense excluding deferred financing costs in the quarter was $21 million. This was down $8 million versus the third quarter of 2022 due to higher interest income on our cash balances. The modest floating rate debt we have is fully hedged through maturity. The Q3 adjusted tax rate, which we used for the calculation of adjusted debt income, was 22% for the quarter. The tax rate for the items used to adjust that income was 35% for the quarter. Adjusted EPS in Q3 was $2.56, up 6% compared with last year. We had 80 million shares outstanding in the third quarter. This is a reduction of close to 1 million shares or about 1% year-over-year. We exited the third quarter with about 79 million shares on an unweighted basis. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $331 million, up 5% compared to last year. CapEx for the quarter was $28 million, down 11% year-over-year as a result of catch-up spend on technology investments in 2022, which normalized this year. Free cash flow for the quarter was $302 million. Free cash flow as a percent of revenue on a rolling four-quarter basis was 18% of revenue and 67% of EBITDA. Adjusted for the after-tax impact of the Q1 divestiture, free cash flow conversion from gap net income was 122%. Our free cash flow conversion is generally higher when CV growth is accelerating. At the end of the third quarter, we had about $1.2 billion of cash. Our September 30th debt balance was about $2.5 billion. Our reported gross debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA was under two times. Our expected free cash flow generation, available revolver, and excess cash remaining on the balance sheet provide ample liquidity to deliver on our capital allocation strategy of share purchases and strategic tuck-in M&A. Our balance sheet is very strong with $2.2 billion of liquidity, low levels of leverage, and effectively fixed interest rates. We repurchased $209 million of stock during the third quarter and about $100 million in October. The board increased the authorization by $500 million earlier this week, and we expect they will continue to refresh the repurchase authorization as needed going forward. At the end of October, following the increased authorization, we had about $1 billion available for repurchases. As we continue to repurchase shares, our capital base will shrink. Over time, this is accretive to earnings per share and, combined with growing profits, also delivers increasing returns on invested capital. We are raising our full-year guidance to reflect the better-than-expected G3 performance and good visibility into the fourth quarter. For research, we continue to innovate and provide a very compelling value proposition for clients and prospects. Subscription research growth will reflect recent trends in contract value. We continue to expect stronger growth from the subscription business than the non-subscription part of the segment, consistent with the third quarter. For conferences, we still expect Q4 to be the largest quarter of the year. For consulting revenues, the labor business continues to perform well. We have very tough contract optimization compares in Q4 and pulled some revenue into Q3 relative to our prior expectations. We will continue both to manage expenses prudently to support future growth and deliver strong margins. Our updated 2023 guidance is as follows. We expect research revenue of at least $4.875 billion, which is FX neutral growth of about 6% or 7% excluding the Q1 divestiture. The update to the research revenue guidance reflects better than planned NCVI performance in Q3. With continued stability in the non-subscription part of the business, there is modest incremental upside relative to the expectations we built into the guidance last quarter. We expect conferences revenue of at least $500 million, which is FX neutral growth of about 27%. We have increased our outlet for conferences by $10 million to reflect a good start to the fourth quarter. We expect consulting revenue of at least $515 million, which is growth of about 8% FX neutral, reflecting the very strong performance of Q3 and timing in the contract optimization business. The result is an outlook for consolidated revenue of at least $5.89 billion, which is FX neutral growth of 8%. We now expect full-year EBITDA of at least $1.44 billion, up $80 million from our prior guidance. With the strong performance in Q3, we have increased confidence in the margin forecast for the fourth quarter. We expect typical operating expense seasonality from Q3 to Q4. We now expect 2023 adjusted EPS of at least $10.90 per share. For 2023, we now expect free cash flow of at least $1.025 billion, up $50 million from our prior guidance. The higher free cash flow reflects a conversion from gap net income of 136%, excluding the after-tax divestiture proceeds. Our guidance is based on 80 million fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding, which reflects the repurchases made through the end of October. We were performing well this year despite continuing global macro uncertainty and a dynamic tech vendor market. CV grew high single digits in the quarter. Revenue and EBITDA performance exceeded our expectations and we increased our guidance. Free cash flow was strong in the quarter and we increased the guidance for the full year. We repurchased about $550 million in stock year-to-date through October and remain eager to return excess capital to our shareholders. We will continue to be disciplined, opportunistic, and price sensitive. Looking out over the medium term, our financial model and expectations are unchanged. With 12% to 16% research CV growth, we will deliver double-digit revenue growth. With gross margin expansion, sales costs growing about in line with CV growth, and G&A leverage, we will expand EBITDA margins modestly over time. We can grow free cash flow at least as fast as EBITDA because of our modest CapEx needs and the benefits of our clients paying us up front. And we'll continue to deploy our capital on share purchases, which will lower the share count over time and on strategic value enhancing tuck-in M&A. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator and we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator?
spk03: Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star one one and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by. Our first question is from Jeff Mueller with Baird. Please proceed.
spk05: Jeff, your line is open. All right, sir. Can we continue with the next question? One moment.
spk03: Next question is from Heather Balsky with the Bank of America. Please proceed.
spk01: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I was hoping to ask a question about expense management. As you look into next year, assuming that tech vendor spending potentially starts to lapse with these comparisons, there's an opportunity to win back those sales. Do you think you need to invest behind that? Or do you think you have an opportunity with your existing Salesforce? And then also just your thoughts around expense management as you head into 2024 more broadly.
spk02: Hey Heather, it's Gene. So as we look at our market opportunity, as you know, our market opportunity is very vast. Over time, we intend to grow our Salesforce, you know, in line with capturing that market opportunity. Over the last couple of years, we've grown our Salesforce dramatically. And we feel like we're in really good position as we go into the end of 23 and 24, the capacity we have.
spk05: Again, over time, we will continue to grow that capacity.
spk01: And so, just to clarify then, when you think about the tax vendor opportunity, do you think you can win back those sales with the sales force you have then? That's the fair assumption.
spk02: Over time, Heather, we think that the tech vendor market will return the kind of growth we've seen historically. Again, our perspective on it is a lot of the business they had was pulled forward, their own sales. As a result, they kind of over-hired and have been having some retrenchment, which has impacted our business. We think, again, that the tech business is going to grow over time. Their revenues will grow, and our business will get back to normal growth over time. And Heather, the other thing I would add is, you know, as our tech business, as the contract value growth accelerated, you know, over the last two years, we also increased the number of territories we have serving that market. And so we did a lot of hiring across all of both GTS and GBS, as Gene mentioned, you know, over the last couple of years, tech vendor market included. And so a lot of new people joined the company in 2022 in selling positions. And they are coming up the tenure curve. And so as we think about our territory coverage, you know, if you will, heading into 2024 and beyond, as well as the maturation of our sales force heading into 2024, we feel like we're in a really good position to return to the kind of target growth that we want to over the medium term.
spk05: Great. Thank you. Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Comes from the line of Tony Kaplan.
spk00: Thank you. I was hoping you could give us some metrics around the current average tenure of your salespeople compared to, you know, sort of any reference point. Maybe it's year over year or pre-pandemic or versus a historical average. Just want to get a sense of, you know, where we are now versus, you know, some historical point. Thanks.
spk02: Good morning, Toni. Thanks for the question. So, you know, the way to think about it is if you look at all of the net and gross ads we did in 2022, effectively, when we entered this year, we had the least tenured or least experienced Salesforce that we've ever had, is sort of order of magnitude, you know, we're, we're typically, you know, Jean and I both talked about this in the past, like, in normal times, call it 35 to 40% of our Salesforce is on the newish side. We were in the 50 plus percent range being brand new to Gartner. As we've made our way through this year, obviously all those people we hired in 2022 have gained experience and tenure. We were very back-end loaded last year in terms of the hiring, and so those people we hired in the third and fourth quarter of last year are now approaching or have just crossed over their one-year anniversary. And again, that's sort of getting back to Heather's question, you know, Jean, around do we have enough capacity, etc., we have enough capacity and the tenuring will look more quote unquote normal as we roll into 2024, but significantly better than what we experienced or more tenured than we experienced over the course of 2023.
spk00: Yeah, that makes sense. I wanted to ask about client retention, sort of a step down in both GTS and GBS. The levels, I think, are still pretty within historical range, but, like, I guess, is there anything you're doing to put in place initiatives to address retention, or do you feel like you're at sort of more normal levels? And, you know, I guess, what's driving that and any concern to call out?
spk02: No. So, you know, on the GTS side, while we're still at or above historical levels, it's really tech vendor drag, and it's really small tech vendor drag there. If you actually broke apart our enterprise function leader in DTS, those client retention rates are at or above you know, historical levels for DTS. And so it's really just the tech vendor market impacting that client retention rate. You know, on the DTS side, yeah, it's down a little, but it's still, you know, four or 500 basis points higher than GTS. And so we feel really good about that. That said, we're never done on retention. So I'll let Dean talk a little bit about that. Yeah, Tony, I mean, as Craig said, even with the rates we have now, we are never satisfied. And so we have a whole set of programs designed to improve those retention rates over time. And it includes things like how we use our conferences, the support tools we give to our service delivery associates, as well as the training we have when people first come on board and then current trains throughout their careers, et cetera. So we are never satisfied with the amount of work.
spk04: No matter how good it is, we always want it to be better.
spk00: Terrific. Thanks a lot.
spk05: Thank you. One moment, please, for our next question.
spk12: comes from the line of seth weber with wells fargo please proceed hey guys good morning um i wanted to go back to the uh expense question just for a second i mean your your margin guidance for this year is you know pretty well ahead of the initial framework that you guys were talking about um you know earlier in the year or last year and i'm just trying to think through are there any you know big cost buckets that could come back next year. I think, Craig, you mentioned travel is kind of back, T&E. So I'm just trying to think through the margin leverage going forward in a higher revenue, in a revenue growth rate environment, if there's anything we should be considering.
spk02: Yeah, good morning, Seth. Great question. So I think there's a couple of things going on within your question. So from an operating expense perspective, You know, we are, I guess, relatively back to a sort of normalized level of expenses. There are obviously, you know, always going to be puts and takes, but a relatively normalized level of expenses. You know, I would note, and this is obviously embedded in the guidance, that there's a pretty significant step up in OPX sequentially from Q3 to Q4, just given our conference schedule, our travel related to conferences, in the fourth quarter and other client activity, marketing related conferences and Q4 activity, et cetera. So it reflects sort of normal Q3 to Q4 step up, but just make sure you kind of bake that into the OpEx. I think the only thing just to keep in mind is that obviously our largest revenue line is our research. And there is a lag between when contract value does start accelerating and then the revenue flows through. And so we're just very mindful of watching that. And that can have a pretty significant impact. on margins, you know, on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.
spk12: Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. And then just, you know, following on that, is there any reason to think that pricing would be softer next year than it was in 2023? Hey, Seth.
spk02: It's Jay. What we're seeing in the marketplace is clients value our products greatly, and we expect the pricing part will be the same next year as it is this year.
spk04: Perfect. Okay. Thank you, guys.
spk03: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Comes from the line of Jeff Mueller with Wells Fargo.
spk05: Please proceed. Jeff? One moment, please.
spk03: Hello? Your line is open. Please proceed.
spk11: Can you hear me now?
spk03: Yes.
spk11: Okay. Thank you. Sorry to drag you back to it. I know you said you have sufficient sales capacity. I just want to make sure I'm understanding the management of sales headcount appropriately. So is this that you've already seen a slowing environment and you've already rebuilt your sales capacity, so with those dynamics you're well calibrated in Or should we be reading into it that there's any sort of like incremental weakening you're seeing because we're not seeing that in any of your externally reported metrics?
spk02: Yeah, Jeff. So you should not read into it in any way that we're seeing any kind of weakening. It's what we talked about earlier, which is that we expanded our sales force a lot over the last two years. For example, GTS, it's up about 18% since the end of 2021. That's a lot of capacity. So we've added a lot of capacity. On top of that, as Craig mentioned, a lot of those people are now coming into tenure. And so as we look, especially for 24, we feel like we're really well situated in terms of actual capacity between the larger number of additions we've made in the last two years and the fact that those people were coming up the tenure curve and kind of being at the really, you know, a really good spot at the tenure curve during 24, and by the way, in 25 as well.
spk11: Okay. And then, Craig, you just alluded to this, but... I guess I was surprised to see subscription revenue perform as well as it did in research, and I'm not sure if there's some FX impact or divestiture impact or something, but to see it on slide seven actually accelerate while CV's still been decelerating, if you can just address why research subscription revenue would be accelerating with those dynamics.
spk02: Yeah, Jeff. So, you know, I think there's a little bit of FX in there. Obviously, I do think, you know, over the course of Q3, and this is part of the reason why we're able to increase the research guide a little bit too, is NCVI or growth came in earlier in the quarter than we had originally anticipated. And so, again, the combination of You know, if it books in July, we get to take two months of it. If it books at the end of September, it's all in Q4. And so, we got a little bit of that benefit flowing through into Q3. And then, obviously, we were able to raise the full year guide for the research segment as well because of the, you know, beating our expectations for the third quarter in NCBI. Okay. Thank you.
spk03: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. It comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. Please proceed.
spk13: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to, again, ask on the headcount question and maybe ask it a different way, which is, Given where you feel you are with headcount and territory coverage and the ramp for what was previously a lower tenured sales force, is it fair for us to expect next year for a bigger gap between CB growth and headcount growth than maybe the 4% to 5% that you've talked about historically as all those dynamics kind of come together?
spk02: Hey, good morning. Good morning, Andrew. It's Craig. I think the way we're thinking about it, again, we'll provide full guidance in February. But as we've mentioned throughout the course of this year, we are constantly recalibrating based on the external situation and how our business is performing. looking at the headcount, you know, sort of quarter to quarter, there can obviously be a little bit of noise in those numbers. And so, you know, as Gene and I both alluded to, there's really nothing to see there. And as we roll into next year and beyond, you know, the algorithm that we continue to think about is we're going to grow our territories and our headcount in that kind of, you know, within four points, four or five points of contract value growth. And the four to five points is really dependent on what we're seeing from wage inflation perspective. And so if wage inflation is abating a little bit, we'll be closer to CV minus four. If wage inflation is higher, it'll be CV minus five or whatever. But that's the algorithm over the long term or medium term. Quarter to quarter, it may shift a little bit just given what's going on. But over the long term, given the huge addressable market opportunity, that's the algorithm we're going to go after.
spk05: Makes sense. Thank you.
spk13: And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to ask, I'm curious how the last year or so, given all the macro uncertainty, geopolitical dynamics, tech vendor weakness, all these different kind of noisy items, that performance and that growth has remained very strong and within your medium-term target. So I'm just wondering if you know, having been through that the past couple years, if you have any kind of updated views on kind of the cyclicality of that business specifically, because it does seem to have been more resilient than I would have expected, particularly off difficult comps last year. Thank you.
spk02: Hey, Andrew, sorry, you cut out at the very beginning. Are you talking about consulting?
spk13: Sorry, no, I was asking about GBS, TV Girls, just kind of the the resilience of the CB growth there?
spk02: Yeah, I mean, I think it's just consistent with the story and the facts we've been telling for a while, which is business leaders outside of IT and HR and finance and legal and sales need help on their mission critical priorities. And we have great products that offer tremendous value in that space. That's really the headline there. We've gotten better at the insights we create. We've gotten better with our selling motions. We've gotten better you know, in everything we do. But the net of it is, is that business leaders have problems and we have great products to help them solve those problems. And, you know, again, we believe that that won't change moving forward.
spk05: Does that answer your question, Andrew? Yes, thank you. You're welcome. One moment for our next question, please. And it's from the line of Josh Shan with UBS.
spk03: Please proceed.
spk09: Hi, good morning, Jean, Craig, David. Thanks for taking my questions. You mentioned that NCVI was better this quarter than you expected. Is there any themes in terms of types of clients to call out? And do you think that the strength is more a function of the market turning or is it your sales force gaining traction there?
spk02: Yeah, I guess, Josh, I'd say that we saw a pretty consistent market environment between Q2 and Q3. You know, if we get to what Craig was saying a minute ago, which is that, you know, our experts look at what are the most important issues facing executives in each of their functional areas, and we have, you know, we give them advice on how to address those things. That's valid in all kinds of environments, whether it's a really robust environment or not as robust for that individual enterprise. And so I think what you see is just, you know, that clients It gives a lot of value out of our research, and it's been true over time.
spk09: Right. Okay. Thank you for that, Gene. And I guess on the consulting side, I appreciate that you mentioned there was some timing pull forward there, but do you think the contract optimization string is more a function of where we are in the cycle and clients looking to, I guess, optimize their spend, or is that more of kind of a one-time type of event for you? Do you expect... kind of sustained strength in the contract optimization business for the next couple of quarters, I guess?
spk02: Yeah, the contract optimization business we've talked about in the past is a very lumpy business. And so you can't really take one quarter and sort of say and extrapolate as something different in the market or whatever. It's really just a matter of when deals happen to come in and what clients have to be looking for that point in time. And so the only way you really look at that business is kind of like over a year-long period or something. From quarter to quarter, you can't really draw many conclusions. I do think, Josh, the one other thing I'd add is that clients like saving money in any operating environment. So, you know, again, I think it's obviously a really strong value proposition, you know, even in a not choppy economic environment.
spk09: That's great, Tyler. Thank you, and congrats on a good quarter.
spk03: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. and it's from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed.
spk08: Thank you. Good morning. Craig, just to ask the expense question a little differently, I mean, you know, obviously there's the seasonal tick-up going into 4Q, but if you look at the full year thus far, like, has that expense base been more normal, or are there any other puts and takes we need to, you know, consider as we, you know, go into next year?
spk02: Yeah, good morning, Manav. I think it's, I would characterize it as roughly normal. You know, I do think that as we pivot into next year, you know, we are likely to get back to a little bit faster headcount and territory growth. And so, you know, we need to model that in. But that's probably the biggest lever on that operating expense base, you know, other than timing of you know, conferences and things like that. It's just, you know, as Gene mentioned earlier, we grew a lot, particularly in 2022. And so this year, we have been sort of operationalizing, maturing, and digesting a lot of that growth. And so there was, you know, there has not been a huge amount of net headcount growth baked into the 2023 numbers there is some but not you know as much as we've had historically i think we get back to a more normal level of that next year so that would have to be modeled in our normal wage inflation you know and merit increase uh and things like that but um you know that that the other stuff is generally normal course
spk08: Got it. Okay. And then my second question was just around the new sales environment. Obviously, you know, fourth quarter is the big quarter. Any color on that? Plus, you know, just I think the new sales numbers you gave for GTS and GBS were positive, mid to high signal digits. Like how much of that was comps versus, you know, and just talk about the momentum there, I guess.
spk02: So in terms of the selling environment, again, I think it's unchanged. You know, we see the same ceiling grind sort of Q2, Q3, and we're expecting the same environment Q4. In terms of the comp, I look correct? Yeah, I mean, I think you're referring to the headcount numbers. And so, yeah, I mean, you know, GBS headcount was up 10% year-over-year, GTS up 4.5%. You know, again, we are constantly, as we've talked about, you're probably tired of hearing me say it, recalibrating those numbers. around a variety of different scenarios for the end of the year. Obviously, there's only another, you know, two months left in the year. But, yeah, you know, we expect the end of the year sort of aligned from an account perspective, you know, and CV perspective so that we roll into next year with, you know, the right size sales force. And then we'll, you know, continue to grow that sales force moving forward to go after that, huge market opportunity.
spk08: Apologies, Craig. I was referring to the new business number, but I appreciate the headcount color as well.
spk02: Yeah. Okay, great. Sorry about that. So, yeah, on the new business side, you know, I think it's a combination of a little bit easier costs and the maturation of the sales force coming off the 10-year curve. Okay. Thank you so much.
spk03: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And he comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
spk07: Hi, thanks. Good morning. Going back to tech vendor trends, you mentioned that research non-subscription revenues were similar in terms of performance to 2Q and tech vendor CV growth was in the low single digits. Can you elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing with tech vendors and if your updated 2023 guides assumes stabilization or improvement in performance?
spk02: So I'd say for Q3, we didn't see any change in the tech vendor environment. It's just the same as we see in Q2 in terms of the guidance outlet credit. Yeah, I mean, I think it's stabilization, George. So, you know, we haven't yet seen signs that that market, you know, has shifted yet. You know, we do believe, again, over the medium term or you know, the next year, year and a half that, you know, we will get back to more normal growth trends there. But I'd say, you know, what we saw in Q3 and what's embedded in the guidance And again, I mean, the reality, just also remember that contract value or growth we sell in Q4 really has almost at the minimus impact on the full year research revenue numbers from a subscription revenue perspective. And so stabilization baked in there. And similarly, on the non-sub line, you know, we have not assumed any, you know, crazy rebound. Sort of what we're seeing is stabilization, and that's what we've modeled into the guide.
spk07: Got it. That's helpful. And then perhaps to ask the margin question a little bit differently, you raised your four-year guidance for EBITDA margins once again this quarter. Can you provide your latest views on what structural EBITDA margins are and if the factors that led to your improved four-year outlook for EBITDA margins can also lead to an improved view on structural margins?
spk02: Sure, happy to. So I think the view is really not changed from prior quarters and prior discussions. So what I'd say is our view on our margin profile today is that the base or foundational margins are in the low 20s. Obviously, that is significantly higher than they were before the pandemic and before the CEB acquisition. In addition to that, as always, we believe there is operating leverage in the business and that our margins will go higher over time. We'll give guidance in February, as we always do. As we talked about on some of the other OpEx questions, this year's operating expense is a reasonable starting point to think about you know, the margins and the overall P&L for next year. But just, you know, obviously keep in mind that there are other things beyond just the OpEx level and the level of investment we put into the business next year that will impact the margins, most notably where we end this year from a contract value perspective. Because as we've talked about, you know, there is a lag in terms of, you know, the revenue and the CV relationship. or two for a lag for the sub-revenue to kind of catch up with the CV. And so, again, you know, just be mindful of that as you think about 2024 as well. We'll provide all those details in February, you know, when we come out with our initial guidance for 2024.
spk04: Got it. Thank you.
spk03: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And it comes from the line of Jeffrey Silder with BMO Capital Markets.
spk10: Thank you so much. I'm not going to ask a margin question. Actually, I wanted to talk about pricing. If I remember correctly, this is the time of year where you start instituting price increases. And I'm just wondering how that's been, if you've seen any pushback in terms of clients maybe pushing back on what they're buying. Thanks, Jeff.
spk02: Jeff, I'll get started, which is, as I mentioned earlier, we haven't seen any, it is a time of increased prices. It rolls through, obviously, as clients renew. And I'd say it's a normal environment. We haven't seen any pushback. Yeah, I mean, Jeff, so the major price increase for us went into place two days ago on November 1st. So we're obviously very, very, very early in that cycle. But again, if you think about it, the average client is spending order of magnitude, you know, $250,000 or $260,000 a year with us. So the difference between, you know, 4% and 5%, you know, is not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things. And, again, we're very focused on making sure that we're delivering, you know, value well in excess of that $250,000 or $260,000. So, you know, we're generally able to, you know, sell the price increase, again, sort of as normal course of business for us.
spk10: Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate it. Let me shift over to conferences. I know the numbers have been strong. But typically, when we're in an environment of economic uncertainty, that area of the business might tend to be a little bit weaker. Do you think we're just seeing kind of a bounce back from the pandemic and the fact that nobody was traveling and nobody was mingling? And maybe as we go into next year, you might see some softness in that business?
spk02: So, Jeff, I think the key thing driving the business is that our clients, our enterprise functional leaders, have a lot of challenges. And, you know, we've done a good job at laying out what those challenges are and how they should address them. As we market our conferences to, you know, potential attendees, we focus on here are the issues you face and here's how we're going to help you with that at the conference. And so I think the biggest single thing that's driving our contribution performance is that we're on the issues people care, you know, our attendees have a lot of issues, and we are on the, our experts have a lot of solutions to those issues that they get a lot of value from. I think that's kind of the biggest thing. In addition to that, you know, obviously we've been adding conferences back, and so we're getting, I think, some people that couldn't go to conferences in the past now can go, and so you sort of see that in terms of comparison points.
spk04: But it's really how you do more about the value, I think, most of all. Okay. Thanks so much.
spk03: Thank you. And this concludes the Q&A session. I would like to turn the call over to Eugene Hall for his closing comments.
spk02: Well, here's what I'd like you to take away from today's call. Gartner proved another strong performance in Q3. We deliver unparalleled value to enterprise leaders and their teams across every major function, whether thriving, struggling, or anywhere in between. We're exceptionally agile and continuously adapt to the changing world. We know the right things to do to be successful in any environment. Looking ahead, we're well-positioned to continue our sustained record of success far into the future. Our client value proposition and addressable market opportunity will allow us to drive long-term, sustained double-digit growth. We expect margins will expand modestly over time. We generate significant free cash flow well in excess of net income. Even as we invest for future growth, we'll return significant levels of excess capital to our shareholders. This reduces shares outstanding and increases returns over time. Thanks for joining us today, and we look forward to updating you again next week.
spk03: And thank you all for participating. And you may now disconnect.
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