James Hardie Industries plc

Welcome to the James Hardy Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks by management, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I would now like to hand the call over to Chris Russell, Senior Vice President of Global Strategy and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Operator, and thank you to everyone for joining today's call. I am joined today by Aaron Erter, Chief Executive Officer of James Hardy, Brian Lotta, Chief Financial Officer of James Hardy, and John Skelly, President and General Manager of James Hardy North America Building Products. Before we begin the call, please note that during prepared remarks and Q&A, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures and make forward-looking statements. You can refer to several related cautionary and other notes on slide two of our earnings presentation for more information. Forward-looking statements made during today's conference call and in the earnings materials speak only as of the date of this presentation. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. In addition, non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed today can be found in our earnings presentation, which is posted on our website. Also, unless otherwise indicated, our materials and comments refer to figures in U.S. dollars, and any comparisons made are to the corresponding period in the prior fiscal year. Organic net sales comparisons exclude the impact of the ASIC acquisition as well as the impact of exiting our Philippines business in Q2 fiscal year 25. With that opening, I'm pleased to hand the call to Aaron.

Thanks, Chris. I'd like to take a moment to thank Chris for his contributions during this transition period in investor relations and to welcome Bill Seymour, our new Vice President of Investor Relations. Bill brings extensive IR experience to the role and a strong track record in the field. In my remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights for Q4 and fiscal 2026, discuss our strategy, and end with our outlook. We delivered a solid fiscal fourth quarter and full year, despite a challenging construction market. The result of staying focused on what we can control execution, cost, and serving our customers. For the fourth quarter, we delivered net sales of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $381 million ahead of expectations with adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.1%. Demand held up across our core categories despite weather-related softness early in the quarter in the United States. and our teams executed well, protecting price, managing costs, and supporting demand as conditions improved. For the full fiscal year, we delivered net sales of $4.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion with adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.2%. Reflecting the resilience of our portfolio, and the actions we took across the business. Free cash flow for the year was $314 million, reflecting tightly managed operations in the year, and despite significant one-time integration and acquisition-related costs. While organic net sales declined in our fiber cement business during the year, We are confident in the underlying demand drivers and expect this business to grow in fiscal 2027. This confidence is reinforced by our great products, leading brands, and best in class sales force, which together position us to outperform the market and capture long-term growth opportunities. As I look back on fiscal 2026, we delivered against a number of objectives. A key differentiator for us is the hardy operating system. Through HOSS, we've taken out and offset significant inflationary costs by improving procurement, driving productivity in our plants, and applying operational discipline. Even with lower volumes, we were able to maintain best-in-class margins and keep the business performing at a high level. As we continue to bring the companies together, We are applying the Hardy operating system to the ASAC manufacturing network. We are encouraged by the early progress in the ASAC plants and believe that Haas will drive productivity and savings over the long term. We utilized a Haas framework to make the difficult decision to close two of our legacy fiber cement plants in January 2026. As we move forward, we will continue to leverage Haas as a critical tool to drive productivity, manage costs, and support both margin expansion and reinvestment and growth. Another milestone in the integration we recently completed was combining our sales forces. We believe we have the largest, most downstream-focused sales team in our space. One sales force, one company. and a portfolio of leading pro brands, James Hardy, TimberTech, AZAC, and more. We are seeing commercial synergy momentum build as a result of the combination, with early wins validating the strength of our integrated go-to-market approach. These wins are both numerous and broad-based. You can see two examples in our earnings presentation. One example is our expanded relationship with Lansing Building Products. Lansing has been a longtime and valued partner of James Hardy, and through this expansion, we are consolidating multiple PVC trim brands to Azac across their footprint. This simplifies the offering for the channel, increases attachment of Azac trim on our fiber cement siding jobs, and strengthens our ability to deliver a more complete exterior solution. Another example is our recently announced expansion with CBUSA. This exclusive agreement adds TimberTech to an existing relationship between James Hardy and CBUSA, expanding our share of Wallet, while positioning us as a single source provider of exterior products for custom builders. These are just two examples. The breadth of opportunities and early traction reinforces our confidence in hitting $125 million in run rate commercial revenue synergies exiting fiscal 2027. On cost synergies, we're ahead of schedule without sacrificing service or execution. Integration continues and our conviction in this combination grows. Next, I'd like to discuss our go-to-market strategy in our largest market, North America, starting with the size of the prize. Our $23 billion exterior total addressable market remains heavily underpenetrated by more resilient materials. Wood and vinyl still dominate siding, decking, railing, and outdoor structures, despite real limits on durability and maintenance. a $17 billion plus conversion opportunity. The James Hardy-Azak combination positions us to capture it, build a leading exterior platform with the best brands, and win in both R&R and new construction. To capture it, we're executing against five pillars that drive our growth and margin expansion. First, material conversions. We're replacing wood and vinyl with materials that are more resilient, need less maintenance, and resist fire. We're seeing this play out in real time. Contractors who trust our brands are switching competitive decking to timber tech, and longtime Hardy Siding contractors are adding composite decking to their service offerings. There are approximately 60 million decks in the United States, and the vast majority are wood, representing a long runway as the installed base weathers in the elements. These two-way winds are exactly what we expected from the combination. With our brands, products, and contractor relationships, we are positioned to continue to deliver above-market growth. Second, channel expansion. in scaling what each business does best across the combined footprint. In the south, approximately 2,500 locations stock Hardy, but not TimberTech yet. A clear runway for our outdoor portfolio into accounts where we have established relationships. In the north, the inverse. Approximately 700 strong TimberTech and AZEC locations where Hardy isn't yet stocked. Disciplined approach. real growth opportunities. The third pillar is innovation. The product and R&D teams from both companies are now combined, focused on solutions that accelerate exterior conversion. Innovation has been a key element of ASAC's 500 to 700 basis points above market growth per year. We're applying that same playbook to fiber cement to expand our market and drive new product growth over time. Fourth, brand preference. James Hardy, Azak, and TimberTech are among the most recognized brands in our categories, and we're extending that lead through targeted marketing, contractor education, and innovation, most of it in-house. The impact is clear. In our DRNA business, brand search volume has increased at a 40% CAGR over the past three years, while customer sample orders, a leading indicator of future demand, have grown at nearly 15% annually over the same period. This marketing strength also carries through to our loyal TimberTech pros, where our data suggests that the consumer demand we are generating has established TimberTech as the leader in brand awareness among contractors. This positions us for sustained share gains over time. As we move forward, we have combined the marketing teams and are applying the ASAC in-house marketing approach to the fiber cement side of the business. As we scale this competency, we expect to drive increased awareness, consideration, and brand preference. Fifth, simplifying the consumer journey. We're making it easier for homeowners to choose and purchase our products. A key part of this has been a full replatforming of our website, designed to improve how homeowners research, compare, and ultimately select products for their homes. Just as important, it better connects homeowners to our contractor network, helping turn interest into action. Underpinning it all is the Hardy operating system. Continuous improvement in safety, quality, service, and cost. Together, this is a clear path to sustainable growth, margin resilience, and long-term value. Now let me talk a little bit about our fiber cement growth plan. Beyond these five pillars, our fiber cement growth plan is central to the strategy. We have clear plans to re-accelerate siding and trim. And as noted, we expect fiber cement to return to organic volume growth in fiscal 2027. Step one, a deliberate focus on the Northeast and Midwest, where we're underpenetrated, and where R&R would and would look siting alone is an approximately $1 billion conversion opportunity. ASAC gives us immediate relevance, established channels, strong relationships, and complementary products. In these markets, we're actively pursuing the opportunity across multiple fronts. including expanded dealer engagement, targeted training programs, and scaled contractor conversion initiatives. Central to this effort is the continued rollout of expanded statement and statement essentials, which ensure James Hardy has the right offering for each contractor in our value chain. We launched this program with a Midwest pilot in April 2025, and the results to date provide clear evidence that the strategy is working. We are seeing consistent acceleration and shift to revenue across each quarter, with growth culminating in double-digit percentage gains. This reflects improved execution in the market and early success in converting demand into realized revenue, and we are scaling this approach to other regions throughout our footprint. We're hitting these markets on multiple fronts. Hardy Pro Lab, a series of mobile training units, supports contractor adoption with hands-on training on ease, speed, and economics of fiber cement install. Based on Midwest pilot success, we've expanded the program across approximately 50 dealer locations in the broader Midwest and Northeast with strong early traction. Our approach focuses on three opportunities. One, converting vinyl siding. Two, winning against all wood siding types. And three, expanding our presence in premium products. First, vinyl. We're accelerating penetration in the Northeast, Midwest, Carolinas, and Canada, backed by new products, expanded Color Plus rollout, and more contractor engagement and training. Second, winning against wood. We are rolling out easier and faster to install products, targeted downstream sales and marketing, and expanded channel access, including the legacy AZAC dealer network. Fire resilience is becoming an increasingly critical factor in this dynamic. As building codes evolve, insurance requirements tighten, and homeowners place greater emphasis on durability and risk mitigation, fiber cement's non-combustible properties are emerging as a more meaningful differentiator versus wood and other combustible materials. While this is most pronounced in higher-risk regions, we are also seeing broader awareness and adoption across markets, reinforcing the structural advantage of our portfolio and supporting continued material conversion. Third, premium products. Timber hue and enhancements to artisan and other premium lines target custom builders and high-end remodelers. leveraging our independent channel strength where design and durability drive the decision. Together, these priorities position us to accelerate conversion, take share, and drive durable volume growth and fiber cement siting. Let me talk to you a little bit about our external environment and outlook. Ryan will cover our outlook in more detail, but let me quickly frame how we see the external environment and touch on our approach to fiscal 2027. The market has shifted substantially in the last few months. At the start of the year, we planned for broadly flat market demand in fiscal 2027. Since then, key variables have changed. 30-year mortgage rates below 6% late February moved meaningfully higher after the Middle East escalation. Builder confidence and consumer sentiment have softened. Across our dealers and contractors, nearly half cite economic uncertainty as their biggest challenge. While the broader market remains somewhat challenging, I want to be clear, we are optimistic about our path forward. We are seeing solid momentum in the business and are intensely focused on execution. We expect to deliver market outperformance, a return to growth in fiber cement, adjusted EBITDA expansion, and we expect to significantly grow our free cash flow, which will drive meaningful deleveraging. Now, over to Ryan, who will take us through the financials.

Thanks, Aaron. I will walk through our results and then get into our planning assumptions. Q4, total net sales grew 45% to $1.4 billion, including $445 million of acquired exact revenue. Organic net sales declined 1% in the quarter. For the full year, total net sales grew 25% to $4.8 billion, with organic net sales down 2%. The organic decline in fiber cement reflects the market environment Aaron described. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $381 million, Margin was 27.1%. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $1.27 billion. Margin was 26.2%. A few items to highlight. Adjusted corporate and unallocated R&D was $45.5 million in Q4. For modeling purposes, keep in mind that approximately 40% of our full year 2026 cost of energy benefits are in that line. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 23.4% for the quarter and 20.2% for the full year, slightly above our prior 20% cap. Adjusted net interest was $65 million. Weighted average diluted shares were approximately $585 million. We expect both to remain consistent in fiscal 2027. Q4 adjusted net income was $173 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.30. Free cash flow for fiscal 26 was $314 million, including the benefit of a completed Australia land sale in Q3. Integration costs continue to weigh on cash, but those stepped down meaningfully in fiscal 2027. Combined with higher EBITDA from Synergy Realization and Discipline CapEx, free cash flow will improve significantly, and deleveraging remains a clear priority. In Siding and Trim, we delivered against our objectives despite unfavorable weather. In Q4, net sales were $767 million, up 7%, with adjusted EBITDA of $253 million at a 33% margin. Cold, storms, and above-average precipitation, most pronounced in February and early March, limited job site activity, and delayed project starts in both new construction and R&R. We estimate the weather impact to our fiber cement sales was approximately $20 million in the quarter. Activity rebounded later in the quarter as conditions improved. Our manufacturing footprint optimization and expense management is already delivering, with initial P&L benefits in Q4, an example of actively managing the business for stronger profitability. For the full year, Siding and Trim delivered net sales of $2.96 billion, up 3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $951 million at a 32.1% margin. In deck rail and accessories, Q4 net sales were $345 million, up 5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $97.5 million. Margin was 28.2%. Sell-through grew low single digits. January was solid. February and early March were disrupted by weather, but activity recovered to the end of the month. We grew DRNA again this quarter, lapping strong Q4 growth in the prior year, delivering against the down market. Over the past few years, we've meaningfully expanded our shelf position with continued gains this year across both pro and retail channels. During Q4, we shipped to support those new shelf wins and saw pockets of sell through delayed by weather. Working with our channel partners, we are taking a slightly more conservative inventory position in Q1 to set up a strong back half of the year. Q1 sales and margins will be softer as a result. Underlying demand is intact. We expect positive sell through in both Q1 and for the full year. Full year on three quarters of contribution, net sales were 795.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was 224.8 million. Margin was 28.3%. We outperformed a market that declined low to mid single digits by more than 700 basis points. In Australia and New Zealand, our fiber cement business remains highly profitable across new construction and R&R. Q4 net sales were $140 million, up 18%, mainly driven by FX, with adjusted EBITDA of $50 million at 35.8% margin. Software volumes in certain markets were partially offset by pricing realization and disciplined cost management, with long-term tailwinds from durability requirements and consumer preference for low-maintenance materials. For the full year, A&D delivered net sales of $521 million, which is flat, and adjusted EBITDA of $178 million at 34.1% margin. We remained focused on innovation, mix, and contractor engagement to extend our leadership in the region. In Europe, Q4 net sales were $152 million, up 13%, mainly driven by FX. Adjusted EBITDA was $23 million. Margin was 14.9%. Fiber gypsum demand was strong, and we improved profitability through expense management and increased manufacturing efficiency. For the full year, Europe delivered net sales of $557 million, up 13%. Adjusted EBITDA was $82 million, at a margin of 14.8%. Turning to our fiscal 2027 outlook. The environment is more challenging than we expected entering the year. Mortgage rates are higher. Builder confidence and consumer sentiment have softened. And economic uncertainty remains a top concern across our dealer and contractor base. New construction will remain under pressure. R&R activity is compressed. Our base case assumes the addressable market declines approximately 3% in fiscal 2027. With that said, our guidance contemplates a range of outcomes. on both the macro and the cost side. We are not assuming conditions improve. We are planning on what we can execute. On cost, the Middle East conflict has driven real inflation across raw materials, freight, and energy. We expect approximately 80 to 100 million of cost pressure in fiscal 2027, roughly two-thirds in North America. Pricing actions announced in late April directly offset this pressure. Separately, The $25 million in annualized savings from Fontana and Somerville, hot discipline across sourcing, productivity, formulation, and deal cost synergies, where we are ahead of schedule, reflect structural improvement work already underway, independent of the macro environment. One technical note on commercial synergies. As we convert customers, some wins involve buyback of their inventory in the channel. This is mechanical, transitory, and not fully modeled into our guidance. We will quantify it where material. Our objectives are clear, organic volume growth in siding and trim in deck rail and accessories, margin expansion, and a significant step up in free cash flow as integration costs step down. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 6% to 7% of net sales. These primarily include maintenance, safety, and targeted growth investments. On page 17 of the presentation, we have outlined our planning assumptions for fiscal 2027. At a high level, our fiscal 2027 planning assumptions are for net sales of 5.25 to 5.41 billion, which equates to 0% to 3% growth on a pro forma basis. On an organic basis, it's a sales growth of 1% to 4%. For adjusted EBITDA, we are planning for a range of $1.45 to $1.5 billion or 4.1 to 7.7% growth on a pro forma basis. On free cash flow, this is where the combination of the business shows up. We expect to exceed $500 million in fiscal 2027, up from $314 million in fiscal year 2026. Higher profitability, integration and acquisition costs rolling off, and disciplined capital spending all driving in the same direction. Turning to T1, for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, we expect net sales of $1.32 to $1.35 billion, or growth of flat to 3% on a pro forma basis. On an organic basis, this translates to sales growth of 4.3 to 7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $354 million and $375 million, or 0.5 to 6.5% growth on a pro forma basis. In siding and trim, we expect net sales of $758 to $781 million. Channel inventory is normalized. We expect continued execution in new construction and early traction in the Midwest and Northeast fiber cement expansion. In deck rail and accessories, we expect net sales of $291 million to $300 million. As flagged in results, Q1 reflects the channel inventory normalization dynamic. Across both siding and trim and deck rail and accessories, pricing actions, plant cost savings, and cost synergies are all driving in the same direction on margins. And with that, I'll turn the call back to Aaron.

Thanks, Ryan. Before we open it up to questions, let me leave you with a few thoughts. Fiscal 2026 was a solid performance in a challenging market, a testament to the discipline and focus of our team. and our commitment to control what we can control. And it sets us up well for what's ahead. Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, we expect fiber cement to return to growth. We expect to outperform the market across our portfolio. The early returns and execution from the ASAC acquisitions are encouraging. resulting in $125 million in run rate of commercial revenue synergies exiting this fiscal year and ahead of scheduled progress on cost synergies. We expect adjusted EBITDA to expand. And finally, we expect significant free cash flow improvement in fiscal 2027, which will drive deleveraging and give us continued flexibility to invest behind our brands innovation, and go-to-market capabilities. We look forward to telling you more about all of this at our Investor Day, which we will host in New York City this September. Members of our leadership team will provide an in-depth update on our strategy, growth priorities, and long-term financial outlook. And a formal invitation to register for the in-person or virtual attendance will follow in the coming weeks. Before we go to questions, I want to thank our team. None of this happens without them. They've done an excellent job navigating change while servicing our customers at a high level and delivering solid results. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality, and if muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks for all the great color. I guess a question for you, Aaron. You know, still a pretty challenging backdrop. Help us kind of think through the key drivers that you have that gives you confidence you can deliver, you know, positive and organic growth in your signing and training business. You know, it would be helpful to kind of tease out the big buckets, whether it's pricing, some of these commercial synergies, how that kind of ramps up, and any other self-help party-specific initiatives.

Yeah, thanks for the question, Bill. Look, quite simply, when we think about the priorities in our business, our number one priority is a company is getting our fiber cement business back to growth. Look, we've had a strong history of growth in this category over the last decade, but we haven't been happy with our growth in the last couple of years. We can talk about the markets being tough, but quite simply, those are excuses and we won't have any excuses anymore. There's enough available share for us to go out and So we're going to go out and get it. Let me tell you a little bit of how I think we're going to be able to do this. We talked a little bit about it on the call, Phil, but, look, we have a tremendous opportunity in our R&R business. We think that we can really take advantage of over a $1 billion type of opportunity in the Northeast and the Midwest that have been really underpenetrated for us. We're going to be able to do this by making the product easier to install with our trim over method. We're going to be able to reduce costs to our contractors, to our homeowners who take on these jobs with contractors by the labor savings that we're going to be able to provide. And that's going to help contractors go out there and do more jobs. And we're going to make the product more accessible. We're having more and more of our dealer partners bring in our statement essentials product And I guess the question is, all right, what's the proof point? How do we know this is working? We've piloted this at the Midwest for about a year now, and we're seeing really strong growth. In fact, over the last year, we saw low double-digit growth in the Midwest, so we're extremely excited about this. We're going to roll this out to other areas right now. We're rolling it out to the north, to the mid-Atlantic, to the Carolinas, to the south. So this is the number one priority for our team. And as you know, we have a combined sales force. As we think about their objectives, this is number one for them to be able to grow this fiber cement business. The other opportunity we believe we have that has been untapped for us and not fully focused on is really getting after these regional home builders. We believe this is about a $750 million opportunity out there. We have the product to be able to do it. We have the team. We have the value proposition. And I think the proof point of this, when we think about synergies out there, is the agreement we just signed with CBUSA to help us really get after a lot of those regional home builders, not just with fiber cement, but with our whole selection of products out there. And then if we think about this, Phil, you know, just from a fiber cement standpoint, you know, we do believe there's competitive share to go out there and get. We have a competitor that's vacating the space. add to that the synergies that we believe we're going to be able to give with the combined sales team. And then, you know, we look at our inventory levels, which are in a good space right now, and we look at our Q1. We have pretty favorable comps. You add all that together, Phil, and it gives us a lot of confidence for us to be able to get this business back to growth this year at FY27.

Well, that sounds exciting, Aaron. If anything, it almost feels – look conservative in terms of how you frame the guidance for this year. So looking forward to that unfolding this year. I guess the question for Ryan, your full year guidance for EBITDA margins calling for, I think, roughly 140 basis points of expansion. And you're calling out, call it 80 to 100 million in inflation. So tough environment from that standpoint. Just give us, you know, the levers you have that you're disposable to offset some of this. You talked about POS and perhaps some pricing, but just kind of help us think through how that kind of ramped up and in the ability to drive that margin expansion this year?

Yeah, so if you think about this back last year, right, I mean, we had a lot of cost synergies that we took action on that, you know, when we realized here in fiscal year 27. Additionally, we took 25 million of plant actions at the end of the year in Q4 that was really started hitting and backing up. So those are nice regardless of what the market has. And then second, you know, we do already think about 80 to 100 million of cost inflation due to the current conflict. You know, we are working through hot savings as well as other procurement initiatives to go after that, as well as we have opportunity to price against that collectively with our, you know, partnering with our customers. So I think the fact of that as well as a little bit of growth and getting utilization in our factories, those just set us up really nice for 2027 from an email perspective.

Okay. Really helpful. Really helpful, Ryan. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Lee Power with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

The decking and riling pace, I... You obviously talked to an inventory impact in the first quarter. Of the inventory, as we look to this FY27 number, how important are the price increases that you've announced to hitting that guidance? And kind of what's the feedback that you're getting from your customers, given there's obviously a couple of your peers that are probably not going as hard on price at the moment? Yeah.

Hey, Lee, good to hear from you. I'll start out here and then I'll turn it over to Ryan and then John at AnyColor. I think the first thing, you know, to note is our DRNA business is healthy. And we expect we're going to continue the trajectory traditionally that AZAC has had, you know, in the 27. And we're going to grow the business and we're going to improve the price and the mix of the business. Look, the last couple of years, we've really meaningfully expanded our shelf position with gains. this year in the pro channel and also the retail channels. So as we think about, you know, our stack and our growth algorithm, the biggest part of this is for us to have contractor and customer conversion, which will continue to do that. And, look, from a pricing standpoint, we're taking price to offset inflation and also to hold our margins here. Look, guys, you want to chime in here, Brian? Yeah, I think those are the major drivers there, right?

We've hit the full year. We had a modest inventory build due to the weather after a successful early buy. So that normalizes past Q1, and then we're back to kind of growth from a, you know, that perspective. So I think those are the key things. I don't know, John, anything else you'd add?

I think that's well said. I'd just add that we have history of taking just selective price actions, and it's still driving that 5% or 6% market growth.

Okay, excellent. And then just a follow-up, if I can. Just going on from Phil's question around kind of bridging that top line. So market volume just sounds like they're going to be down three. You've got a couple of points. of growth at the top line. So there's a decent gap there. You've obviously kind of outlined a bunch of initiatives that sound really exciting on getting back to that 500 to 700 points of growth. When we think about 27, is it real, is it going to be that growth above market that does the most of that heavy lifting or is it a pricing perspective? Just trying to think about how we go from, you know, down three to the, you know, the low single digits. Right.

Hey, Lee, I think that, you know, the short answer is we're guiding to a number we believe that's appropriate, given the uncertainty that we see out in the marketplace right now, and also one that we believe that can handle, you know, continued potential challenges.

Yep. Thank you. I'll leave someone else to go into the conservativeness of it. Really appreciate the call. Thank you very much. Thanks, Lee.

Your next question comes from Ryan Merkle with William Blair. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the question. Good afternoon. I wanted to ask on slide eight, you know, it's new disclosure. I think it's a case study of the Midwest. And I guess my question is, do you expect to see this kind of growth when you roll it out to the other regions? And then what could it mean for fiber cement growth if it has the success that you think it might?

Yeah, Ryan, really good question. I'll start out and I'll hand it over to John to talk about a little more. Look, as we think about our fiber cement growth, as I mentioned before, we, you know, have not been pleased with it. This has been an on-purpose effort that we've had in the works over the last couple years. How do we get after repair and remodel? How do we close that gap versus inferior material like vinyl from a pricing standpoint? And we get after what we think is the largest opportunity in the marketplace. We talk always about these homes that are 40 years or older, 40 million homes. So we believe that we have the right formula now. It is the early days, right? When we were citing this case study here, we've been doing this for about a year. The results are very promising. So we're taking the template of that and we're rolling it out region by region where there's this opportunity. So we talked about the Midwest, the mid-Atlantic. We think we can do this in other areas of the country. So, Ryan, as we get into our investor day in September, we can talk about from a longer-term perspective what that means. Our focus right now, as I mentioned in the beginning – is getting this business back to growth and getting it back to volume growth. And that's our target, and we believe this is going to help us be able to do that, even in what is a challenging market. John, do you have anything else you want to throw in there?

Yeah, sure. I think the only thing I'd add is, I had to get after that billion-dollar R&R opportunity that Aaron highlighted by making sure we narrowed the gap between, you know, dependent and pure materials. And we allow both the homeowner and the contractor to benefit from a better value proposition from a pricing perspective.

All right. That's great. Great to see. And then my next question is just on the first quarter DRNA. The Ether got a little light. Can you just talk about what's the impact of the production cut in 1Q to EBITDA, and then when do you think the channel will be destocked for decking?

Yeah, I'll turn it over to Ryan here. Look, when we talk about elevated inventory levels, this is less than $20 million. So just full disclosure here. But Ryan can talk a little bit about the impact from reducing the production.

Yeah, Ryan, I would say, you know, basically half the decline year-over-year is probably limited to the production there, so we did pull a little bit of volume out. Some of it was related to that inventory detox that we were mentioning, and then some of it was, you know, we've been producing a little bit ahead for some of the synergies, and now we're kind of normalizing that production. So our goal was to get that all behind us as we acted a Q4 and a Q1. The rest is really just the volume, that $20 million that we went to repeat in. So if you go through those two, that really normalizes the year-over-year production.

All right. Got it. That's a lot.

Your next question comes from Sam Seow with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Evening, Aaron. Ryan. Just a quick question on the guide and really how your modeling costs over the full year. You know, when we think about the margin assumption you've got there, are you using kind of like... thoughts to things like freight, et cetera, or how are you thinking about the assumptions you're building into the margin? Thanks.

Yeah. Hey, Sam, good to hear from you, and I'll start out. Look, we're thinking about when we look at, you know, inflation and FY27, we're thinking about an $80 to $100 million type of cost headwind. You know, and certainly the Middle East conflict has driven real input costs of inflation across certain raw materials, in particular, you know, freight and production inputs. So, you know, the majority of this, you know, call it about 70% is in North America. But that's how we're looking at it. You know, as far as how we offset it, certainly we're looking at this from a party operating system standpoint. You know, the team has done a really fabulous job, even with slowed volumes, of operating very efficiently. And we've certainly taken out costs last year. This is going to help us this year. And then we're working with our customer partners, you know, where we need to, you know, from a pricing standpoint. But that's kind of how we're looking at this. But, Ryan, do you want to add into this?

Yeah. I mean, I think the other way to look at it, too, from a phasing perspective, right, is pretty So what we're seeing for oil prices now in terms of freight and input, we're modeling that through the year. If it were, that could get better. You know, we're monitoring it daily and we would continue to report costs on that.

Got it. That's really helpful. And then a quick question on cash. You obviously did 300-odd GCU. If we had an additional ASIC quarter, you know, in reverse of the integration costs, we kind of get above $600 or well above your guide before even kind of considering organic growth or declining capex. Can we just kind of talk about if there's another moving piece there or if the guidance is just conservative on cash as well?

Yeah, so we were starting with the building blocks that we knew And then, you know, we were really working on an assumption of, you know, we didn't need the market to help stabilize that. We did have a land sale that won't repeat year over year, so that's part of the step down. So, you know, although CapEx is coming down, we won't get the benefit from the Australian land sale, so that's kind of offsetting some of that. But, yeah, generally, you know, we were set in $500 million at the floor. We can absolutely do that.

Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Clueson's on siting and trim and the guidance and the organic numbers you talk. Can you give us a feel, just directionally, how much price and volume are going to play a role in that number for the guides?

Thank you. It's Ryan. Yeah, so when you think about combined market down 3%, right, I mean, we think new home construction is going to be down a little bit more than that. When you think about that growth there, I'd say about half of it's price and then half is initiatives at this point. We could do a little bit better on pricing, but the reality of it is it's about 50-50 in our current time.

So do you think volume will be up for that segment of the year if you hit the guide?

Yeah, so I would look at it as the price is kind of offsetting the market decline of 3%, and then that other 0 to 3 would be the volume and initiatives that we're driving.

Okay. So, okay. One other question, then. It does look as you work through the numbers, like a pretty big margin ramp coming in, deck railing and accessories. I know your first quarter is going to be hit with the production slowdowns. Can you just talk about, you know, production rates and what you anticipate to see for the rest of the year in that segment?

Yeah, I think, you know, we're pretty consistent where we were the last couple years, just under 70% utilization across the decking network. I would say that probably stays pretty consistent throughout the year. It is a little bit lower in Q1. So if you normalize for the Q1 blip, it's back to more, I'd say, kind of run rate, what we've seen for DRA. So I think taps in a Q1, the run rate kind of holds the track record and kind of trend that we're on. Okay, thank you.

Thanks, Gene.

Your next question comes from Peter Stein with Macquarie. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good evening, Aaron and Ryan. Chris and John, thanks for your time. May I just ask you, after the sales organization integration in mid-March, if you could just sort of dig in a little deeper for us, Aaron, and give us a sense of where the team is at, what the balance is like between the two businesses, and how comfortable you are that the team is set up to be able to switch and work and shift between businesses and drive the outcomes that you're needing both on site and the DRNA?

Yeah, Peter, that's a really good question. And as, you know, we think about keys to our success, that certainly is. Just a note, as we sit here in Chicago, we're having our sales organization have their sales meeting right now. So if we think about this, you know, as we sign the deal, you know, we're getting to almost a year of finalizing it, you know, and we've integrated the two teams starting on April 1st. We're still in our infancy here. With that said, we're seeing a lot of success. When we talk about, you know, synergies, which certainly is a proof point for us from a commercial standpoint, we are seeing very good progress and we're confident. And our run rate actually, you know, FY27, $125 million run rate. But, look, I think that's – we've got John sitting right here who runs this group, and he can give some more color to you. Yeah, I have to do that, Aaron.

So, again, I think ultimately the number one business test is the customer, and that's where – is leveraged, you know, the strength of the team. And you still have that specialist model out on the street, but that's being, you know, coordinated as a team. And then we have a channel manager that's considered that person the quarterback at the customer level. So the customer has one point of contact and then is able to leverage, you know, The customers' feedback has been really positive. The data and the sales growth coming from that has been key to my expectations. And then Ryan just quoted, that's a big driver of the initiative growth that we expect next year is going to be driven by that client sales team.

Awesome. Could I just indulge one quick follow-up? You know, you shared a number of years ago A number of years ago, you entered a range of exclusives, deeper relationships, particularly with the large builders, and some of those have probably played out in some of the sales performance over the last two years, just from a mix and location point of view. But what I'm curious about is, as a lot of those contracts probably are starting to extend now towards some form of renewal, how are you thinking about those last How positioned do you feel for extension of those relationships?

Yeah, Peter, you were a little choppy. I think I got the gist of it. It's just the contract renewals for some of the large home builders. Look, that remains a key focus and a very important part of our business, and we will defend that rigorously, and we have. And we believe, you know, not only is there opportunity to continue to defend that business, but to deepen those relationships and expand those relationships with offering a full suite of products that now we have at our disposal, whether that be AZAC trim or TimberTech type of decking. So our focus is to defend that business but also to expand it. And as we think about opportunities from a revenue synergy standpoint, certainly this is a key one for us.

Thanks, Howard. That's useful. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Tim Weiss with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, everybody. Good afternoon. maybe just starting with price mix in the siding insurance business. I think it was the second consecutive quarter where that's been up mid-single digits. And so I'm just curious if there's anything in there that we should think about in terms of pure price versus mix. Because, Ryan, it did sound like maybe that number could step down a little bit as you think about fiscal 2027. So could you just kind of talk about what price mix kind of landed in the fourth quarter and kind of the sustainability of that in 2027, especially against higher inflation?

Yeah, I think as we talked about before, you know, on the fiber cement side, we'd expect it to be a little more than 3% in terms of price realization, and then DRNA would be closer to that 2%. We did end Q4 in a little bit better position, so I think price was net about 4.8%. You know, we did see a little bit higher realization on price, and then that was offset by some negative mix. based on the regional demand scale. We'd expect that to normalize closer to that 3%, 3.5% as we enter full year 27 here. And then DRNA consistent, we would expect that 2% to 3%, depending on the annual price increase, as well as, you know, we're working to offset inflation.

Okay. Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just, is there a way just to kind of give us a little bit more precision on what the realized cost synergies, you know, that are kind of embedded in the guidance are?

Yeah, so I think, you know, as we exited full year 26, we're approximately at an $80 million run rate versus our original target of about $42 million in exiting the year. So I would say you expect, like, a $35 to $40 million incremental of cost energy to be realized during full year 27, you know, driven, you know, by manufacturing optimizations, you know, procurement, organization efficiency, and just continuing to integrate on the ASIC platform. You know, content. where the cost synergies would be.

Okay, super helpful. Thank you so much. Good, thanks.

Your next question comes from Keith Chow with MST Marquis. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, Aaron and Ryan. Thanks for taking my question. The first one, never just put it simply. So, you know, we're all trying to get a gauge of What's in the FY27 guide? I just want to focus on market share. So, you know, important to give a bit of context for signing insurance last year. I think there was a $75 million destocking impact at the revenue level for signing insurance. So if you take that into consideration, I'm just trying to back out what your market share assumption is for FY27. So maybe if you can just give us that one number, that would be useful. Thank you.

Yeah, Keith, if you're talking about PDG, I mean, look, what we're looking at is how do we have positive PDG as we go into FY27. Certainly a lot of challenges in FY27. Our focus is to outperform the market, and we believe, you know, with the commercial synergies, you know, the R&R expansion we talked about, you know, you mentioned it, you know, some of the comps that we have, that we're going to be able to do that. and bring this business back to, you know, volume growth. So if you're looking for a PDG number, our focus is to be able to have positive PDG as we contemplate, you know, our guide and we look to the year. One thing, you know, I think everyone knows this, but as we look at our guide, we're not only guiding through this year. We're lapping the calendar, and we have to guide through March 31st. So, you know, the visibility is limited, but, you know, we are confident in our ability to be able to grow and be able to have positive market share gains.

Thanks, Aaron. Can I just ask a follow-up for Ryan? So, Ryan, I think you mentioned before that, you know, this history of ASIC raising prices, being able to recover costs, and also taking market share at the same time. Presumably, you're talking about that post-COVID period when price increases were fairly rampant. I guess the difference this time around is your competitors, they can have an extra price increase, whereas, you know, back in that period, everyone, you know, was raising prices, and for some competing products, it was multiple price increases. So just getting to understand how you're proposing to manage the competitive dynamic given ASIC and raising prices and tricks isn't at this juncture. Thank you.

I would say we have history, regardless of market conditions, to be able to take strategic price. And so there's a long, long track record with our ability to do so. So, again, I think we have a proven history of strategic pricing plus share gains. Nothing's changed. What we have seen historically is typically the competition has followed engine. And so we have a proven capability to take care regardless of what the competition does from a price standpoint.

Thanks, John. Thanks, John. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Trevor Allenson with Wolf Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. Another question on the synergies. You reiterated your run rate target of $125 million a year on the commercial synergies. How should you think about the contribution of these in 2027? And then on the cost side, do you see upside to your eventual cost synergies number, given you've made such good progress, or are you just seeing those come through earlier and you think you kind of land in the same spot as you originally targeted on the cost side?

Yeah, Trevor, I'll take the revenue synergy piece. Look, we haven't explicitly mentioned what these are and how they're going to be phased in. What I would say is we have clear line of sight to be able to exit the year at $125 million in revenue synergies. We gave a couple of the headlines out there. There's many headlines that we could give on some of these. The real magic is going to come, and, you know, John talked a little bit about the sales teams being together, is when we really get after it, which we are, our contractors are thousands of contractors that we can cross-sell to. So that's a big opportunity for us as we move forward. Yes, we're giving headlines, but, you know, we feel confident. We do have the line of sight to that $125 million. You want to take the cost?

Yeah, Trevor, on the cost side, right, the primary goal was to get to 125 faster. We're not necessarily raising that target. The goal is just to achieve that record, and we're on a really good run rate to be able to do that.

Okay, that makes sense. Thank you for all that, Colin. And then maybe more of a clarifying question here on some of the pricing commentary in 2027. I think I've heard you say you're expecting about 3% pricing in siding, which for you guys is a pretty normalized price increase. But you also have these inflationary pressures that you're speaking to that seem maybe to require some additional pricing. So can you confirm on siding and trim, is the 3% expectation for realization in 2027 correct? And then if so, can you kind of help reconcile why, given some of these inflationary pressures, that might not be a little bit higher in 2027?

Yeah, Trevor, if we think about this, I mean, we go out usually with a mid-single-digit type of price increase, and it usually matched to like three to three and a half. Here's what I would say. If we have to go out and take pricing because of inflation, certainly we're going to be able to do that. And on the siding and trim side of the business, we've been very selective. on certain products in certain areas where we can go take price. And that's what we've done. Certainly there's other areas that we try to make up that inflation and hold our margins. We talked a lot about the hardy operating system. So we have a number of levers at our disposal, which we'll utilize if we need them. Thanks, Sheriff.

Good luck moving forward.

Thanks. Thank you.

Your final question comes from Daniel Sykes with Jarden. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just have two. The first one was just on the exteriors business with insiding and trim on AVAC. It looks like revenue dropped kind of, I'm getting in double digits year on year, that was more than actually the organic fibers and members business. Just in the context of earlier questions around the go-to-market combined sales force, just wondered if you could help us push out, I guess, a differential in performance between those two businesses, whether there's any kind of volume and pricing mix you can give us on that 7% drop from the exteriors business.

Yeah, do you want to talk to that? I'll talk to it moving forward here.

Yeah, yeah, I think, you know, just given kind of where we ended Q4, are you talking about the results or the guided results? Yeah, yeah, I think, you know, we have a lot of the commercial synergies early on are related to the exterior product. A lot of those will materialize as we get into the season here. So I think that's really what you saw in Q4, nothing really from a fundamental demand perspective, just given timing of where the market is.

Yeah. As we move forward, and you heard from some of the headlines, we believe, and we talked about this when we signed the deal, you know, we see some low-lying fruit within, you know, being able to bring PVC to many of our traditional fiber cement customers. That's what you're seeing with Lansing, is us doing that, and we'll do that with a number of other customers. So the business is healthy. The business is going to grow for us. So... Nothing else really, you know, but I guess we have no worries about this business. We're confident of our path forward.

Okay, great. And then just another clarifying question. Just on the timing impacts of startups, I think historically you kind of talk to a one-quarter lag between, you know, sales volume and what we see on the start side. I know in the pre-prepared remarks, kind of talking to, I think it was a 20 million headwind from weather in February and March. It seems like the kind of timing has contracted. I was just wondering if you could help me understand a little bit more whether there's any kind of procedural changes that shorten that time frame and if we should expect that going forward.

Yeah, I don't think there's anything different. When we talk about, you mentioned the 20 million from weather impact, that was because we had customers that were shut down. There were job sites where people could not work. There's really nothing else to read into that. So, you know, as far as the would there be any difference from the lag between starts and realized volume, you know, we should get back on a normalized level.

Okay, good. Thank you.

Great.

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.