JP Morgan Chase & Co.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Piepsak. Ms. Piepsak, please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. The presentation, as always, is available on our website, and we ask that you please refer to the disclaimer at the back. It's slightly longer this quarter, given we're not having Investor Day, and so after I review our results, I'll spend some time on our outlook for 2021, as well as touch on a few important balance sheet topics that are top of mind for us. So starting on page one for the fourth quarter, the firm reported net income of $12.1 billion, EPS of $3.79 on revenue of $30.2 billion and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 24%. Included in these results are approximately $3 billion of credit reserve releases. Before we get into more detail on our performance, I'll just touch on a few highlights. First off, our customers and clients continue to demonstrate strong financial resilience in the face of an unprecedented pandemic as evidenced in our credit metrics thus far. We saw continued momentum in investment banking and grew our share to 9.2%. In CIB markets, revenue was up 20% year on year, driven by strong client activity and elevated volatility in the quarter. And in AWM, we had record revenue, up 10% year on year. On deposits, we saw another quarter of strong growth, up 35% year on year and 6% sequentially, as Fed balance sheet expansion continues to increase the overall amount of cash in the system. while loan growth remains muted, up 1%, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. On to page two for more on our fourth quarter results. Revenue of $30.2 billion was up $1 billion, or 3%, year-on-year. Net interest income was down approximately $900 million, or 7%, primarily driven by lower rates and mix, partly offset by balance sheet growth and higher markets NII. Non-interest revenue was up $1.9 billion, or 13%, on higher IB fees, legacy investment gains in corporate, and higher production revenue in home lending. Expenses of $16 billion were down 2% year-on-year on lower volume and revenue-related expenses, partially offset by continued investments. Credit costs were a net benefit of $1.9 billion, down $3.3 billion year-on-year primarily driven by reserve releases of $2.9 billion that I'll cover in more detail shortly. Turning to the full year results on page 3. The firm reported net income of $29.1 billion, ETFs of $8.88, on record revenue of nearly $123 billion, and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 14%. Revenue was up $4.5 billion, or 4% year-on-year, as net interest income was down $2.8 billion, or 5%, on lower rates, partly offset by higher markets NII and balance sheet growth. And non-interest revenue was up $7.3 billion, or 12%, on higher markets and IV fees, as well as higher production revenue and home lending. Expenses of $66.7 billion were up 2% year-on-year, driven by volume and revenue-related expenses, higher legal and continued investments, partially offset by lower structural expenses. And credit costs were $17.5 billion, reflecting a net reserve bill of $12.2 billion due to the impacts of COVID-19 and net charge-offs that were down year on year. Now turning to reserves on page four. We released approximately $3 billion of reserves this quarter across wholesale and home lending. Starting with wholesale, we released $2 billion due to improving macroeconomic scenarios and the continued ability of our clients to access capital markets and liquidity. In home lending, we released $900 million primarily on improvement in HPI expectations and to a lesser extent portfolio runoff. And in card, we held reserves flat as we remained cautious about the near term, especially with the number of unemployed still nearly two times pre-pandemic levels and potential payment shock coming to consumers from expiring benefits. And so with the near term outlook still quite uncertain, we remain heavily weighted to our downside scenarios, and at nearly $31 billion, we are reserved at approximately $9 billion above the current base case. And to touch on net charge-offs for the quarter, they were down about $450 million year-on-year and remain relatively low across our portfolios. Looking forward, we still don't expect any meaningful increases in charge-offs until the second half of 2021, and with the recent stimulus, it could be even later. Turning to page five, We've included here an update on our customer assistance programs, and you can see the trends are largely similar to last quarter and further evidence of the resilience of our customers. The vast majority of what's left in deferral is in mortgage, with $10 billion of own loans and $13 billion in our service portfolio. And in terms of what we're seeing from our customers that have exited relief, more than 90% of accounts remain current. Turning to balance sheet and capital on page six, We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.1%, flat versus the prior quarter, on strong earnings generation, largely offset by dividends of $2.8 billion and higher RWA. As we stated in our press release last month, the board has authorized share repurchases, and we plan to resume buybacks in the first quarter up to our Fed-authorized capacity of $4.5 billion after paying our $0.90 dividends. You can see here on the page we've included the liquidity coverage ratio for both the firm and the bank, which we believe is important to look at together in order to better understand the liquidity profile of our balance sheets. The firm is at a healthy LCR of 110%. However, the bank LCR is 160%, reflecting the extraordinary deposit growth that has meaningfully outpaced loan demand. Now let's go to our businesses, starting with consumer and community banking on page seven. In the fourth quarter, CCB reported net income of $4.3 billion and an ROE of 32%. Revenue of $12.7 billion was down 8% year-on-year, reflecting deposit margin compression and lower card NII on lower balances, largely offset by strong deposit growth and higher home lending production revenue. Deposit growth was 30% year-on-year, up over $200 billion, as balances remain elevated and as we continue to acquire new customers and deepen primary relationships. Loans were down 6% year-on-year, with home lending down due to portfolio runoff and car down on lower spend, offset by business banking, which was up due to PPP loans. Client investment assets were up 17% year-on-year, driven by both net inflows and market performance. On spend, Combined debit and credit card sales volume in the quarter was up 1% year on year, which reflected debit sales up 12%, largely driven by retail and everyday spend, and credit sales down 4%, largely driven by T&E. In home lending, overall production margins remained strong. Total originations were down 2% year on year, but were up 12% quarter on quarter, both driven by correspondence as we lean into the channel after pulling back earlier in the year. For the year, Total originations were 114 billion, including nearly 73 billion of consumer originations, both the highest since 2013. In auto, loan and lease origination volume was 11 billion, up 29% year on year. And across the franchise, digital engagement continues to accelerate. Our customers use Quick Deposit for more than 40% of all check deposits, which is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago. And in home lending, nearly two-thirds of our consumer applications were completed digitally using Chase My Home, and that has tripled since the first quarter. Overall, 69% of our customers are digitally active, with business banking at 86%, a little higher than a year ago. Expenses of $7 billion were down 1% year-on-year, and credit costs were a net benefit of $83 million, driven by $900 million of reserve releases in home lending, largely offset by net charge option card of $767 million. Now turning to the Corporate and Investment Bank on page 8. CID reported net income of $5.3 billion and an ROE of 26% on revenue of $11.4 billion for the fourth quarter and an ROE of 20% on revenue of $49 billion for the full year. The extraordinary nature of this year has meant that we had records in almost every category for both the quarter and the full year. In investment banking, IVPs were up 25% for the year and we grew share to its highest level in a decade. For the quarter, investment banking revenue of $2.5 billion was up 37% year-on-year and up 20% sequentially. The quarter's performance was driven by the continued momentum in the equity issuance market as well as strong performances in DCM and M&A. In advisory, we were up 19% year-on-year, driven by the closing of several large transactions. The M&A market continued to strengthen this quarter and, in fact, announced volumes exceeded pre-COVID levels. Debt underwriting fees were up 23% year-on-year, driven by leveraged finance activity, and we maintained our number one rank overall. In equity underwriting, fees were up 88% year-on-year, primarily driven by our strong performance in follow-ons and IPOs. Looking forward, we expect IBCs to be up modestly for the first quarter, and the overall pipeline remains robust. We expect M&A to remain active on improved overall CEO confidence, and the momentum in equity capital markets is expected to continue, of course, dependent on a successful containment of COVID. Moving to markets, total revenue was $5.9 billion, up 20% year-on-year against a record fourth quarter last year. Fixed income was up 15% year-on-year, driven by good client activity across businesses, particularly in spread products, as well as a favorable trading environment in currencies and emerging markets, credit, and commodities. Equities was up 32% year-on-year, driven by strong client activity in equity derivatives and cash throughout the quarter across both flow trading and large episodic transactions. Looking forward, We expect markets to remain active in the first quarter, and we have seen strong performance since the start of January, but it's obviously too early to predict the full quarter. And for the remaining quarters of this year and the full year, the comparisons will be particularly challenging given the extraordinary performance of markets in 2020. Wholesale payments revenue of $1.4 billion was down 4% year-on-year, primarily reflecting the reporting requests in merchant services. and security services revenue of $1.1 billion was down 1% year-on-year. On a full-year basis, the headwinds from lower rates were almost entirely offset by robust deposit growth. Expenses of $4.9 billion were down 9% compared to the prior year, driven by lower compensation and legal expenses. Now let's go to commercial banking on page 9. Commercial banking reported net income of $2 billion and an ROE of 36%. Revenue of $2.5 billion was up 7% year-on-year, with higher lending and investment banking revenue partially offset by lower deposit revenue. Record gross investment banking revenue of $971 million was up 53% year-on-year. And the full year was also a record, finishing at $3.3 billion, surpassing our previously established $3 billion long-term target. And given our investments in banker coverage, we believe there's continued upside from here. Expenses with $950 million were flat year-on-year. Deposits with $277 billion were up 52% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter as client balances remain elevated. Average loans were up 1% year-on-year but down 3% sequentially. C&I loans were down 4% on lower revolver balances with utilization rates nearing record lows as clients continue to access capital markets for liquidity. And CRE loans were down 1% on higher prepayment activity in both CTL and real estate banking. Finally, credit calls were a net benefit of $1.2 billion driven by reserve releases. Now on to asset and wealth management on page 10. Asset and wealth management reported net income of $786 million with pre-tax margin and ROE of 29%. And for the year, AWM generated record net income of $3 billion with pre-tax margin and ROE of 28%. For the quarter, revenue of $3.9 billion was up 10% year-on-year as higher performance and management fees, as well as growth in deposit and loan balances, were partially offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses at $2.8 billion were up 13% year-on-year, primarily due to higher legal expenses related to the resolution of matters previously announced. But excluding this, expenses would have been up 4% year on year on volume and revenue-related expenses. For the quarter, net long-term inflows were $33 billion, positive across all channels, asset classes, and regions. And this was true of the $92 billion for the full year as well. In liquidity, we saw net outflows of $36 billion for the quarter and net inflows of $104 billion for the full year. AUM of $2.7 trillion and overall client assets of $3.7 trillion, up 17% and 18% year-on-year respectively, were driven by net inflows into both liquidity and long-term products, as well as higher market levels. And finally, deposits were up 31% year-on-year, and loans were up 15% as clients continued to increase their liquidity and look for investment opportunities. Now onto corporate on page 11. Corporate reported net loss of $358 million. Revenue was a loss of approximately $250 million, relatively flat year-on-year. Net interest income was down $730 million on lower rates, including the impact of faster prepays on mortgage securities, as well as limited deployment opportunities on the back of continued deposit growth. Declines in net interest income were largely offset by net gains this quarter of approximately $540 million on several legacy equity investments. And expenses of $361 million were roughly flat year on year as well. Now shifting gears, I'll turn to our outlook for 2021, which I'll cover over the next few pages, starting with NII on page 12. As you can see on the page, we expect NII to be around $55.5 billion in 2021. And this is based on the latest implies, which reflects the steepening yield curve we've seen over the past few weeks. So you can see that we do expect to be able to more than offset the impact of low rates in 2021 from continued deposit growth and higher markets NII. But it's important to note that it takes a loan growth to truly realize the benefits of a steeper yield curve. I'll also just remind you that the increase in CIV markets NII is largely offset in NIR, and this component is highly market dependent. And so as it relates to loan growth, while there should be some opportunities in AWM and wholesale, We expect headwinds at least in the near term as corporate cash balances are at all-time highs, card payment rates are elevated, and there continues to be significant prepayments in home lending. But we do expect these to normalize and see loan growth pick up in the second half of the year, particularly in cards. Therefore, our fourth quarter 2021 NII estimate of $14 billion or more is a reasonable exit rate. And notably, that's in the zip code of our 4Q19 NII when rates were significantly higher than they are today. We've also included on the right side of the page some risks and opportunities, and obviously this isn't an exhaustive list, but are the drivers that could be most impactful to this year's NII outlook. Now turning to expenses on page 13. As Jamie mentioned last month, we do expect our expenses to increase in 2021, and based on our latest work, we expect that number to be around $68 billion. Up versus the prior guidance of $67 billion, largely due to higher volume and revenue-related expenses and the impact of FX, both of which have offsets in the revenue line, as well as the impact of expenses from our recent acquisition of CX Loyalty. Then taking a look at the year-over-year expense growth, you can see it's primarily due to investments, which I'll cover in more detail on the next page. Our volume and revenue-related expenses are up slightly with some puts and takes there. That's obviously market-dependent, but remember any changes there do come with corresponding changes to our top line. And in structural, we expect a net reduction of approximately $200 million. Notably, this includes a decrease of $500 million, reflecting the realization of continued cost efficiencies in what is largely our fixed cost base. And you can see that it is partially offset by the impact of FX on our non-US dollar expenses. It's important to note that while structural is coming down, it doesn't represent the full extent of our productivity. We're realizing efficiencies in each category here. For example, our software engineers are becoming more productive and we are reducing our cost to serve as we see more customers use our digital tools to self-serve. Moving to page 14 to take a closer look at our investment spend. Over the past two years, our investment spend has been around $10 billion and we expect that to increase to nearly $12.5 billion in 2021. You can see that we've highlighted on the page the major areas of focus that we've been consistently investing in for years, which have continued to strengthen our franchise and drive revenue growth. Starting on the bottom with technology, this represents roughly half of the overall investment spend, and these tech investments are across the board as we look to better meet our customer and client needs, improve our customer's digital experience, strengthen our fraud detection capabilities, as well as modernize and improve our technology infrastructure, cloud, and data capabilities. Moving to non-tech investments, we expect marketing spend, largely in CCB, to return to pre-COVID levels this year after being down in 2020. We continue to invest in our distribution capabilities across all of our businesses. This includes hiring bankers and advisors, not only in the U.S., but also internationally, as well as expanding our physical footprint. We've been continuing to execute against our branch expansion plans in new markets, having opened 170 branches so far out of our plan 400, and expect to be in all continuous 48 states by mid-2021. Jamie's clapping. And the other bucket on the page is a catch-all for everything else, including real estate and other various investments across our businesses. These expenses were fairly stable the past two years, and the increase in 2021 is largely related to our $30 billion commitment to the path forward, which includes promoting affordable housing, expanding home ownership for underserved communities, and supporting minority-owned businesses, and then as well as expenses related to our acquisition of CX Loyalty. So in summary, you can see that we continue to invest through the cycle, and it's these investments that we believe position us well to outperform on a relative basis, regardless of the environment. Now I'll turn to a few balance sheet and capital-related topics starting on page 15. Over the next few slides, I'd like to provide you some insight on how recent monetary expansion and corresponding growth in the financial system is creating new challenges for bank balance sheets. More specifically, this expansion is putting significant pressure on size-based capital requirements, which is likely to impact business decisions, including capital targets. We'll start with what has happened this year. In response to the COVID crisis, the Fed's balance sheet has significantly expanded, which has resulted in $3 trillion of domestic deposit growth across the U.S. commercial banks. What's important to note is that this QE is unlike anything we've seen before. In the current QE, we have experienced a much bigger and faster expansion, and that expansion has come without meaningful loan demand beyond PPP, as you can see in the loan-to-deposit ratio on the page. This has resulted in bank balance sheets which are larger, but more liquid and less risky. From a bank capital perspective, the key question to ask is how long will this persist? On the chart, you can see that the QE3 unwind kept the Fed on pause for several years before a modest pace of reductions. So even if the Fed immediately signals tapering, which of course is not the base case, and follows the pace of the last unwind, it will take many years to return to pre-COVID levels. Of course, the unwind speed is uncertain, but I think we can all agree that bank balance sheets will remain elevated for some time. Now let's go to page 16 and see how this will impact capital going forward. Two factors that are top of mind for us are GSIB, which we've been talking about for a long time, and also SLR, which is not something we typically talk about, but given the overall system expansion is now in focus. On the graph, what you can see here are the historical trends of G-SIB and SLR-based requirements, overlaid with the path of the Fed's securities holdings. You can see that during the original calibration of these rules, which included significant gold plating, the Fed balance sheet was notably lower. With the recent growth in the Fed balance sheet, we are seeing upward pressure and increases to G-SIB requirements, as well as the SLR shifting from a backstop to a binding measure, which would impact the pace of capital return. and these dynamics will likely persist for an extended period. The Fed temporary release of SLR expires after March 31st. This adjustment for cash and treasury should either be made permanent or, at a minimum, be extended. With these exclusions, you can see how this remains a backstop measure, not a binding one. Then on GSIB, there has been public dialogue about the need to index the score to GDP as a proxy to account for ordinary economic expansion over time. and this was also cited by the Fed as a possible shortcoming of their framework. For 2020, GDP was clearly not the best proxy for system expansion, but the principle still applies. G-SIB was designed as a relative measure between large and medium-sized banks, and therefore it should certainly reflect an overall system expansion which impacted small, medium, and large banks alike. By future-proofing G-SIB at inception with the adjustments outlined on the page, you can see the resulting G-SIB score profile. lower over time, but more importantly, flatter over the course of the most recent system expansion. While we recognize that prudent bank capital requirements do promote safety and soundness, satisfying these heightened requirements is certainly not costless, which is why these two areas, GSIB and leverage, are top of mind for us in 2021. Now let's look at the impact of this on marginal deposits on page 17. In addition to what we've already discussed, there are two more building blocks required to see the full picture of marginal deposit economics, and they are interest rates and loan demand. We've experienced a combination of both lower interest rates and lower loan demand, which have reduced the NIM of marginal deposits to practically zero, which you can see here on the chart. And this is an issue for all banks, not just GSIBs or JP Morgan. However, what is specific to the larger banks is that when the SLR becomes binding, we may be required to issue new debt and retain higher equity, which ultimately makes the marginal deposit a negative ROE proposition in today's ultra-low rate environment. The key question is, what could happen next? We could simply shy away from taking new deposits, redirecting them elsewhere in the system, or we can issue or retain additional capital and pass on some of that cost, which is certainly something we wouldn't want to do in this environment. And therefore, we strongly encourage a serious look at these size-based capital calibrations with an appropriate sense of urgency as we will soon be facing this critical business decision. All of this can be addressed through a few simple adjustments, namely an extension of the SLR exclusions and the G-SIB fixes we've spoken about over time. But to be clear, we believe the framework as a whole has made the banking system safer as we experienced in 2020, but we're also seeing evidence where the lack of coherence and recalibration is risking unintended consequences going forward. With all that said, before I close things out on capital, here's how we're thinking about target CET1 levels. While GC pressure remains and the need for recalibration is high, our SCV optimization can provide some offset, allowing us to manage to a 12% CET1 target. The recent stress test showed an implied 20 basis point reduction to SCV, and we have continued our optimization efforts since the resubmission. So we're hopeful for a lower SCV later this year, Of course, that's scenario dependent. At this point, it's too early to provide specific color on the impact of SLR, so it's just important to note that in the absence of any adjustments to the measure, we may have to issue prefers or carry additional CEP1 over the 12% target I just mentioned. We obviously can't emphasize these key messages enough, and these factors are clearly front and center as we think about managing our balance sheet and capital targets in the near and medium term. Now, before we conclude, Note that we've included a few additional slides on our businesses in the appendix to give you an update on their strategic highlights and performance, as well as provide the latest financial outlook. The themes and initiatives we talked about at last year's Investor Day still remain our focus, and we continue to execute and make progress against them. So to wrap up, 2020 was an incredibly challenging year, but it also showcased the benefits of our diversification and scale and the resulting earnings power of our company. while our employees relentlessly focused on supporting our customers, clients, and communities. While downside risks do remain in the near term, and they could be significant, several recent factors help us feel more optimistic as we look ahead to the recovery in the medium and longer term. So with that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.

Certainly. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We kindly... at request that you ask one question and only one related follow-up. If you would like to ask additional questions, please press star 1 to be re-entered into the queue. Your first question comes from the line of Steven Schubach with Wolf Research.