JP Morgan Chase & Co.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's second quarter 2021 earnings call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. And before we get going, I'd just like to say how honored I am to be on my first earnings call, following in the footsteps of Marianne and Jen, both of whom taught me so much during my time working for them, and whose shoes will be very difficult to fill, but I'm gonna try. So with that, this presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back. Starting on page one. The firm reported net income of $11.9 billion EPS of $3.78 on revenue of $31.4 billion and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 23%. These results include $3 billion of credit reserve releases, which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Touching on a few highlights, combined debit and credit spend was up 45% year-on-year and, more importantly, up 22% versus the more normal pre-COVID second quarter of 2019. It was an all-time record for IVPs, up 25% year-on-year, driven by advisory and debt underwriting. We saw particularly strong growth in AWM, with record long-term flows as well as record revenue. And finally, credit continues to be quite healthy, as evidenced by our exceptionally low net charge-offs across the board. Regarding our balance sheet, the trends from recent quarters have largely continued. Deposits are up 23% year-on-year and 4% sequentially, and loan growth remains low, flat year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, although we have bright spots in certain pockets and the consumer spend trends are encouraging. So now turning to page two for more detail. As I go through this page, I'm going to provide you some context about the prior year quarter because the year-on-year comparisons are a bit noisy. So with respect to revenue, the second quarter of 2020 was an all-time record for markets with revenue of over $9.7 billion, and we recorded approximately 700 million of games in our bridge book. With that in mind, revenue of $31.4 billion was down $2.4 billion or 7% year-on-year. Non-interest revenue was down $1.3 billion or 7% due to the prior year items I just mentioned, partially offset by strong fee generation and investment banking in AWM, as well as from card-related fees on higher spend. And net interest income was down $1.1 billion, or 8%, driven by lower markets on AI and lower balances in card. Expenses of $17.7 billion were up 4% year-on-year, largely on continued investments. And then on credit costs, going back to last year again, you will recall in last year's second quarter, we built $8.9 billion in credit reserves during the height of the pandemic, whereas this year we released $3 billion. So in this quarter, credit costs were a net benefit of $2.3 billion. And setting aside the reserve release, it's also worth noting that net charge-offs of just over $700 million were half of last year's second quarter number and continued to trend near historical lows. On the next page, let's go over the reserves. We released $3 billion this quarter as we grow increasingly confident about the economy in light of continued improvement in COVID, especially in the U.S. In consumer, we released $2.6 billion, including $1.8 billion in card and $600 million in home lending. And in wholesale, we released nearly $450 million. So this leaves us with reserves of $22.6 billion, which, as a result of elevated remaining uncertainty about COVID and the shape of the economic recovery, are higher than would otherwise be implied by our central economic forecast. Now moving to balancing and capital on page four. We ended the quarter with a CT1 ratio of 13%, down slightly versus the prior quarter, as net growth and retained earnings was more than offset by higher RWA across both retail and wholesale lending. This quarter also reflects the exploration of the temporary SLR exclusions, and as we anticipated, leverage is now our binding constraint. As you know, we finished CCAR a couple of weeks ago, and our SCB will be 3.2%, which reflects the board's intention to increase the dividend to $1 per share in the third quarter. Okay, now let's go to our businesses, starting with consumer and community banking on page five. CCB reported net income of $5.6 billion including reserve releases of $2.6 billion on revenue of $12.8 billion, up 3% year-on-year. Of particular note this quarter is the acceleration of card spend. And so while card outstandings remain lower than pre-pandemic levels, this quarter's trends make us optimistic. Total debit and credit spend was up 45% year-on-year, and more importantly, up 22% versus the second quarter of 2019. And within that, compared to 2019, June total spend was up 24%, indicating some healthy acceleration throughout the quarter. And travel and entertainment has really turned a corner, with spend flat versus the second quarter of 2019 accelerating from down 11% in April to actually up 13% in June. The rest of the CCB story remains consistent with prior quarters. Consumer and small business cash balances remain elevated, resulting in depressed loan growth. Overall loans were down 3% year-on-year from continued elevated prepayments and mortgage and on lower card outstandings, partially offset by strong growth in auto and the impact of PPP. Home lending and auto continued to have strong originations with home lending up 64% to $40 billion, the highest quarterly figure since the third quarter of 2013, and auto up 61% to a record $12.4 billion. Deposits were up 25% year-on-year, or approximately $200 billion, and client investment assets were up 36%, driven by market appreciation and positive net flows across our advisor and digital channels. And our omnichannel strategy continues to deliver, We are more than halfway through our initial market expansion commitment as we have opened more than 200 new branches out of our goal of 400, which have exceeded our expectations by generating $7 billion in deposits and investments. And we are planning to be in all 48 contiguous states by the end of the summer. Digital trends continue to be strong as retail mobility recovers at a faster pace than branch transactions, which are still down more than 20% versus 2019. Active mobile users grew 10% year-on-year to over 42 million, and total digital transactions per engaged customer were up 12%. Expenses of $7.1 billion were up 4% year-on-year, driven by continued investments and higher volume and revenue-related expenses. Looking forward, the obvious question is the outlook for loan growth, especially in cards. And we are quite optimistic that the current spend trends will convert into resumption of loan growth through the end of this year and into next. And while we wait, the exceptionally low level of net charge-offs provides a substantial offset to the NII headwind. Next, the Corporate and Investment Bank on page six. CIB reported net income of $5 billion and an ROE of 23% on revenue of $13.2 billion. IB fees of $3.6 billion were up 25% year-on-year and up 20% quarter-on-quarter, an all-time record driven by advisory and debt underwriting, leading to a year-to-date global IB wallet share of 9.4% and a number one ranking. In advisory, we were up 52% year-on-year, benefiting from the surge in announcement activity that has continued into the second quarter. Debt underwriting fees were up 26%, driven by an active acquisition finance market offset by lower investment grade issuance. And in equity underwriting, fees were up 9%, primarily driven by a strong performance in IPOs. The resulting investment banking revenue of $3.4 billion was roughly flat year on year due to the headwind of the prior year's markup in the bridge book. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the pipeline remains very strong. We expect M&A activity in the IPO markets to remain active, and while IVCs are likely to be down sequentially, we still expect them to be up year on year. Moving to markets, total revenue was $6.8 billion, down 30%, compared to an all-time record quarter last year. While normalization has been more prevalent in macro, overall, we ran above 2019 levels throughout the quarter on the back of strong client activity. of performing our own expectations from earlier in the year. Fixed income was down 44% compared to last year's exceptional results, but up 11% compared to the second quarter of 19. Equity markets was up 13% driven by record balances in prime, as well as strong performance in cash and equity derivatives where we matched last year's great results. Looking forward, While we expect normalization to continue across both investment banking and markets, and most notably in fixed income, the timing and the extent of the normalization is obviously hard to predict. Wholesale payments revenue was $1.5 billion, up 5%, driven by higher deposits and fees, largely offset by deposit margin compression. And security services revenue was $1.1 billion, down 1%, as deposit margin compression was predominantly offset by growth in deposits and fees. Expenses of $6.5 billion were down 4% year-on-year, driven by lower performance-related compensation, partially offset by higher volume-related expense. Moving to commercial banking on page 7. Commercial banking reported net income of $1.4 billion and an ROE of 23%. Revenue of $2.5 billion was up 3% year-on-year, with higher investment banking, lending, and wholesale payments revenue largely offset by lower deposit revenue and the absence of a prior year equity investment gain. Record gross investment banking revenue of $1.2 billion was up 37% from increased M&A and acquisition-related financing activity compared to prior year lows. Expenses of $981 million were up 10% year-on-year, driven by higher volume and revenue-related expenses and investments. Deposits of $290 billion were up 22% year-on-year, as client balances remain elevated. Loans of $2.5 billion were down 12% year-on-year, driven by lower revolver utilization compared to the prior year quarter, and down 1% sequentially. CNI loans were down 1% quarter on quarter, with lower utilization partially offset by new loan activity in middle market. And CRE loans were down 1%, but we saw pockets of growth in affordable housing activity. Finally, credit costs were a net benefit of $377 million, driven by reserve releases, with net charge-offs of only one basis point. And to complete our lines of business, On to asset and wealth management on page eight. Asset and wealth management reported net income of $1.2 billion with pre-tax margin of 37% and an ROE of 32%. Record revenue of $4.1 billion was up 20% year on year as higher management fees and growth in deposit and loan balances were partially offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses of $2.6 billion were up 11% year-on-year, driven by higher performance-related compensation and distribution expenses. For the quarter, net long-term inflows of $49 billion continued to be positive across all channels, with notable strength in equities, fixed income, and alternatives. AUM was $3 trillion, and for the first time, overall client assets were over $4 trillion, up 21% and 25% year-on-year respectively, driven by higher market levels and strong net inflows. And finally, loans were up 21% year-on-year, with continued strength in securities-based lending, custom lending, and mortgages, while deposits were up 37%. Turning to corporate on page nine. Corporate reported a net loss of $1.2 billion, Revenue was a loss of $1.2 billion, down $415 million year-on-year. And AI was down $274 million, primarily on limited deployment opportunities as deposit growth continued. And we realized $155 million of net investment securities losses in the quarter. Expenses of $515 million were up $368 million year-on-year. So with that, on page 10, the outlook. Our 2021 NII outlook of around $52.5 billion remains in line with the updated guidance we provided last month. But as you'll note, we've also lowered our outlook for the card net charge-off rate to less than 250 basis points, which, as I mentioned in CCB, provides a meaningful offset to the NII headline. And it's worth mentioning that the current environment makes forecasting NII, even in the near term, unusually challenging. So while $52.5 billion remains our current central case, you should expect some elevated uncertainty around that number, not only because of the ongoing impact of stimulus on consumer balance sheets, but also due to volatility coming from markets, among other things. And as a reminder, most of any fluctuation in markets NII, whether up or down, is likely to be offset in NIR. On expenses, we've increased our guidance to approximately $71 billion, driven by higher volume and revenue-related expenses. So, to wrap up, we are encouraged by the continued progress against the virus and the economic recovery that is underway, especially in the United States. Although we want to acknowledge the challenges that much of the rest of the world is facing, and we're hopeful that a global recovery will follow closely behind. Our performance this quarter once again showcases the power of our diversified business model as headwinds in NII from consumer delivering are offset by strong pre-generation across AWM and CIB and exceptionally low net charge-offs across the board. While we're proud of the performance of the company and of our people through the crisis, the competition in every business from banks fintechs, and others is as intense as ever. So, as we look forward to an increasingly normal environment, we are enthusiastically focused on competing for every piece of share in every market, product, and business where we operate and making the necessary investments to win.

With that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.