JP Morgan Chase & Co.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go live to the presentation. The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website. Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements. Please stand by. At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, the firm reported net income of $13 billion and EPS of $4.63, with an ROTCE of 18%. These results included the previously announced reserve build of $2.2 billion in CCB related to the forward purchase commitment of the Apple Card portfolio. Revenue of $46.8 billion was up 7% year-on-year on higher markets revenue as well as higher asset management fees and auto lease income. The increase in NIIX markets was primarily driven by higher farm-wide deposit balances and revolving balances in card, largely offset by the impact of lower rates. Expenses of $24 billion were up 5% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher volume and revenue-related expenses and compensation growth, including from office hiring, partially offset by the release of an FDIC special assessment accrual. Turning to the full-year results, I'll remind you that there were a few significant items in 2025 which are listed in the footnote. Excluding those items, the firm reported full-year net income of $57.5 billion, EPS of $20.18, revenue of $185 billion, with an ROTCE of 20%. And in terms of the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with a standardized CG1 ratio of 14.5%, down 30 basis points versus the prior quarter, as net income was more than offset by capital distributions and higher RWA. This quarter's higher standardized RWA is driven by increases in lending across both wholesale and retail, including the Apple Card purchase commitment, which contributed about $23 billion of standardized RWA, partially offset by lower market risk RWA. You'll see that sequentially, the advanced RWA is up more significantly than standardized. And as you know, our SCB is now at the 2.5% floor, which makes advanced RWA more relevant, so we have added it to the page. The Apple Card transaction's advanced RWA contribution was about $110 billion, based on the sum of expected drawn balances and undrawn lines on closing. The elevated level of advanced RWA is temporary and is expected to reduce to approximately $30 billion in the near term. Moving to our businesses, CCP reported net income of $3.6 billion, or $5.3 billion, excluding the reserve bill for the Apple Card portfolio. Revenue of $19.4 billion was up 6% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher NII on higher revolving balances in card and a higher deposit margin in banking and wealth management. A few points to highlight. Consumers and small businesses remain resilient. We continue to monitor leading indicators for any signs of stress, and despite weak consumer sentiment, trends in our data are largely consistent with historical norms, and we are not currently seeing deterioration. Across income groups, Debit and credit sales volume continued to perform well, up 7% year-on-year. For the full year, we had strong growth in our franchise with 1.7 million net new checking accounts, 10.4 million new card accounts, and record households in wealth management across digital and advised channels. Next, the CIB reported net income of $7.3 billion. Revenue of $19.4 billion was up 10% year-on-year, driven by higher revenues in markets, payments, and security services. Even with more color, IVPs were down 5% year-on-year, reflecting a strong prior year compare and the timing of some deals that were pushed to 2026. In terms of the outlook, we expect strong client engagement and deal activity in 2026, supported by constructive market dynamics, which is reflected in our pipeline. Markets, fixed income was up 7% year-on-year, with strong performance in securitized products, rates, and currencies in emerging markets, largely offset by lower revenue and credit trading. Equities was up 40% with robust performance across the franchise, particularly in crime. Turning to asset and wealth management, AWM reported net income of $1.8 billion with pre-tax margin of 38%. Revenue of $6.5 billion was up 13% year-on-year, predominantly driven by growth in management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows, as well as higher performance fees. Long-term net inflows were 52 billion for the quarter and 209 billion for the full year, positive across all channels, regions, and asset classes. In liquidity, we saw net inflows of 105 billion for the quarter and 183 billion for the year. And we saw record client asset net inflows of 553 billion for the year. To finish up the fourth quarter results, corporate reported net income of $307 million and revenue of $1.5 billion. Before I go over the outlook, I want to make a few points on non-bank financial institution lending, given the attention it received last quarter. When we look at NVFI lending internally, we use a narrower definition than what the call report uses. Our definition focuses on exposure to non-bank financial institutions that is collateralized by the loans the NVFIs are making to end borrowers. At the top of the page, we've provided a reconciliation of the regulatory definition, our definition, and as you can see, that results in excluding, for example, subscription lending to private equity funds, resulting in about $160 billion of exposure as of the fourth quarter. We've also given you categories of the exposure that we believe are a bit more intuitive and mapped to recognizable industry categories and business models of the NBFIs. Now, looking at the bottom left, you can see that even though our narrower definition produces a smaller absolute number, the growth over the last seven years has been quite significant no matter how you look at it. And the drivers of that growth are well understood in terms of market dynamics and regulatory pressures. In terms of risk, on the bottom right of the page, We've given you some detail on the structural features associated with different versions of this lending and the different asset classes. Given the significant amount of credit enhancement involved in this activity, as well as the absence of a traditional credit cycle during the period, it's not surprising that when we look at the loss history since 2018, we've only seen one charge-off, one related to apparent fraud. Stepping back, in light of the growth and the novel elements of some components of this activity, we are quite mindful of the risks. Given the structural protections, you would generally expect losses in this NBFI category to appear either as a result of additional instances of fraud-like problems or as a result of a particularly deep recession that erodes all the credit enhancement. In that scenario, losses associated with traditional lending to end borrowers would likely be the greater concern for the industry. Now, turning to the outlook for 2026, we continue to expect NIIX markets to be about $95 billion. The drivers we explained last quarter remain largely the same, so I'll cover them quickly. As usual, the outlook follows the forward curve, which currently assumes two rate cuts. Offsetting that is the expectation for continued loan growth in CARD, although slightly less than last year as the revolved normalization tailwind is behind us, as well as modest firm-wide deposit growth. For completeness, we expect total NII to be about $103 billion for the year as a function of markets NII increasing to about $8 billion due to lower funding costs from the rate cuts, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR. On expense, as we told you at an industry conference in December, we expect 2026 adjusted expense to be about $105 billion. Broadly, the expense growth continues to align with where we see the greatest opportunities across our businesses. The details of the thematic drivers are listed on the page and are broadly consistent with what we've told you before. On the slide, we've shown you 2024 and 2025, as well as 2026. and called out the foundation contribution in the FDIC special assessment. In adjusting for those, the 2026 growth looks a bit more in line. So, 2026 in isolation clearly represents meaningful expense growth in both dollar and percentage terms. And that growth reflects our structural optimism about the opportunity set for the company when we look through the cycle, as well as some optimism about the near-term revenue outlook. More generally, The environment is only getting more competitive, and so it remains critical to ensure that we are making the necessary investments to secure our position against both traditional and non-traditional competitors. To wrap up on credit, we expect the 2026 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4% on favorable delinquency trends driven by the continued resilience of the consumer. We're now happy to take your questions, so let's open the line for Q&A.

Thank you. Please stand by. Our first question comes from the line of Glenn Shore with Evercore. Your line is open.