11/19/2024
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Keysight Technologies Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Joel, and I will be your lead operator today. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please dial star zero. This call is being recorded today, Tuesday, November 19th, 2024, at 1.30 p.m. Pacific time. I would now like to hand the call over to Paulina Sims, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Sims.
Thank you and welcome everyone to Keysight's fourth quarter earnings conference call for fiscal year 2024. Joining me are Keysight's president and CEO, Satish Dhanasekaran, and our CFO, Neil Doherty. In the Q&A session, we will be joined by Chief Customer Officer, Mark Wallace. The press release and information to supplement today's discussion are on our website at investor.keysight.com under financial information and quarterly reports. Today's comments will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We will also make reference to core growth, which excludes the impact of currency movements and acquisitions or divestitures completed within the last 12 months. The most directly comparable GAAP financial metrics and reconciliations are on our website, and all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted. We will make forward-looking statements about the financial performance of the company on today's call. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and are only valid as of today. We assume no obligation to update them and encourage you to review our recent SEC filings for a more complete view of these risks and other factors. Lastly, management is scheduled to participate in upcoming investor conferences hosted by Wells Fargo and Barclays. And now, I will turn the call over to Satish.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. my comments will focus on three key headlines. First, Keysight executed well and delivered fourth quarter revenue and earnings per share above the high end of our guidance range under market conditions which remain consistent with our expectations. Orders finished slightly above our expectations and grew 1% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, driven by ongoing strength in AI and strong year-end bookings in our U.S. aerospace, defense, and government business. Second, strong execution and cost discipline drove full-year revenue of $5 billion and earnings per share of $6.27, which were down from record highs of 2023. Results were paced by gradual improvement throughout the year with better performance in the second half as expected. Under challenging market conditions, we demonstrated the resilience of our business model by delivering 26% operating profit and over $900 million in free cash flow. We also returned approximately 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through repurchases. Third, we progressed our software-centric solution strategy by investing to realize organic growth opportunities through innovation and industry collaborations while expanding the breadth of our solutions through selective M&A. As we look ahead, the strength of our differentiated portfolio, deep engagement with customers, and the accelerating pace of technology innovation gives us confidence in our ability to outperform as markets recover. Now let's begin with an overview of Keysight's fourth quarter business performance. Communication Solutions Group revenue was flat year-over-year and grew 6% sequentially, with growth across both commercial communications and aerospace defense and government. CSG orders returned to growth for the full year, reflecting AI momentum in wireline, stability in wireless, and consistent strength in ADG. In wireline markets, demand remained strong due to ongoing expansion in AI data center infrastructure, even as telco investments continue to be muted. As the timeline for 800 gig and 1.6 terabit adoption accelerates, the industry is investing in advanced technologies, including silicon photonics, chiplets, and high-speed electrical and optical interconnects. Keysight continued to expand its portfolio of solutions across the technology stack, to enable customers in both R&D and manufacturing. At the Open Compute project in San Jose, Keysight showcased our newly introduced AI workload and system emulation solution in collaboration with Academia and Hyperscalers. Our solution provides high-fidelity emulation of AI model training and inferencing workloads to optimize training time and benchmark AI infrastructure performance. At ECOC conference, Keysight showcased physical and protocol layer solutions with industry leaders to enable 800 gig interoperability with critical optical and electrical interface technologies. In wireless, demand was stable as smartphone industry nears the end of its inventory correction and telco capex normalizes from peak levels. Investment continues in Open RAN, expansion, ongoing standards progression with emphasis on non-terrestrial networks, and early 6G research. This quarter, we announced multiple ORAN collaborations with industry leaders such as NTT DoCoMo, DISH Networks, and Pegatron. We also collaborated with Qualcomm to establish industry's first end-to-end interoperability and data connection in the candidate frequency band for 6G, FR3. We're also well poised to drive industry innovation forward with our differentiated full-stack solutions. Turning to aerospace, defense, and government, stronger-than-expected seasonality drove orders to an all-time high. The funnel of opportunities remains strong. The U.S. defense budget is expected to grow low single digits, while government investment in defense modernization in Europe and Asia is projected to increase. Customer engagements on electromagnetic spectrum operations, radar, and advanced communication use cases remains high. Satellite communication investments is expected to continue as more LEOs constellations are launched over the next few years. Keysight is capitalizing on the growing investment in defense modernization around the globe. At the recent European Microwave Conference, we showcased our leading capabilities in phased array, over-the-air compact antenna design and test in collaboration with analog devices. We also highlighted our latest flagship performance network analyzer. Its differentiated and industry-leading capabilities include wide band, high dynamic range, pre-selected receivers for faster S-parameter measurements to enable customers' high-frequency component design. Turning to electronic industrial solutions group, revenue was down year-over-year as expected, but grew mid-single digits sequentially. Orders were mixed with year-over-year growth in semi and general electronics, offset by automotive market headwinds. In semiconductor, robust demand drove strong order growth for our parametric wafer test solutions. We saw broad-based foundry investment to expand capacity and address leading-edge applications driven by AI. This included advanced DRAM technologies such as high-bandwidth memory and DDR5, as well as silicon photonics. Enabling further advances in power semiconductor production and efficiency, this quarter Keysight introduced an innovative single-pass, three-kilowatt high-voltage wafer test solution. In automotive, The industry is facing challenges and we expect the headwinds to continue in 2025. This quarter, production-related demand was sequentially stable while we saw incrementally cautious pending due to slowing EV sales and battery oversupply. Even with near-term headwinds, we remain focused on customers' emerging innovation and design needs. Our R&D engagements for software-defined vehicle as well as broader electrical and physical design applications remain high. ESI grew its solution business this year through steady renewals and new customer additions. Over this period, the ESI team also made significant contributions through the use of AI to improve product performance simulations and offering workflow solutions with immersive visualization to validate assembly and servicing. In general electronics, we saw stable manufacturing demand, albeit at lower levels, and a modest sequential improvement in consumer and industrial high-speed connectivity applications. Public and private sector investment in support of advanced research and technology workforce development grew this quarter, and digital health application demand was again strong. Turning to software and services, revenues grew 8% this quarter and accounted for 39% of total Keysight revenue. Annual recurring revenue from software and services also grew 16% to approximately $1.5 billion and accounted for roughly 30% of Keysight overall. We saw solid growth in our design engineering software portfolio in 2024, reflecting the expansion of virtual prototyping across a broad range of industries. As a recognized thought leader in RFEDA, Keysight was selected to lead a U.S. government joint public and private sector effort to leverage AI and machine learning to automate and bring efficiencies to complex RF integrated circuit designs. In summary, Keysight has continued to sustain strategic progress and momentum through the downturn. The flexibility and discipline of our operating model has proven our ability to deliver strong financial results and healthy cash flows in a variety of economic conditions. We have positioned the business to emerge stronger as markets recover, to capitalize on the opportunities ahead of us, and to create value for all stakeholders. Before I conclude, I'd like to sincerely thank our employees once again for all their outstanding contributions, commitment, and strong track record of execution under a variety of market conditions. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil to discuss our financial performance and outlook.
Thank you, Satish, and hello, everyone. Fourth quarter revenue of $1,287,000,000 was above the high end of our guidance range and down 2%, or down 5% on a core basis. Orders of $1,345,000,000 were up 1% as reported or down 1% on a core basis. Backlog increased $53,000,000 in the quarter to finish at $2.4 billion. Looking at our operational results for Q4, we reported gross margin of 64.5%. Operating expenses of $497,000,000 were up 5% year over year. Q4 operating margin was 26% or 28% on a core basis. Turning to earnings, we achieved $288 million of net income and delivered earnings per share of $1.65. Our weighted average share count for the quarter was 174 million shares. For the full year, Keysight generated revenue of $4,979,000,000, down 9% as reported or down 12% on a core basis. Gross margin was 65%, down 60 basis points versus the prior year. We sustained investment in R&D at $871 million, or 17.5% of revenue, while driving further operating efficiencies in SG&A, which declined 7%, excluding acquisitions. Full year core operating margin of 26.5%, was down 370 basis points, continuing to outperform Keysight's down cycle model and demonstrating the financial resilience of the business. Net income of $1.1 billion resulted in earnings per share of $6.27. Moving to the performance of our segments, the Communications Solutions Group generated fourth quarter revenue of $894 million, flat as reported or down 2% on a core basis. Commercial communications revenue of $591 million grew 4%, while aerospace defense and government revenue of $303 million declined 6%. Altogether, CSG delivered gross margin of 67% and operating margin of 28%. The Electronic Industrial Solutions Group generated revenue of $393 million, down 6% or 11% on a core basis. EISG reported gross margin of 58% and operating margin of 21%, an increase of approximately 100 basis points versus the prior quarter. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow, we ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, generating cash flow from operations of $359 million and free cash flow of $328 million. Share purchases this quarter totaled 974,000 shares and an average price per share of approximately $154 for a total consideration of $150 million. Full year share purchases total $439 million or 49% of the $905 million in free cash flow generated this year. Now turning to our outlook. We expect the demand environment to remain mixed and for recovery to occur gradually through the year barring any further macro degradation. Our base case assumptions for FY25 are for revenue growth at the low end of our 5% to 7% long-term target and earnings growth in line with our 10% target. As a reminder, the timing of ESI's annual contract renewals typically results in 40% to 45% of their full-year revenue being recognized in our fiscal first quarter, with the balance recognized relatively evenly over the remainder of the fiscal year. For the rest of the business, we are modeling the typical mid-single-digit seasonal decline in revenue from Q4 to Q1. As a result, we expect first quarter revenue to be in the range of $1,265,000,000 to $1,285,000,000, and Q1 earnings per share in the range of $1.65 to $1.71, based on a weighted diluted share count of approximately 174 million shares. Now a few modeling considerations for the full year. Given the annual ESI contract renewals in Q1, we expect a material sequential decrease in ESI revenue in Q2. And over the same period, we expect a low single-digit increase in core Keysight revenue. At current debt levels, annual interest expense is expected to be approximately $70 million. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $150 million. and we are modeling a 14% non-GAAP effective tax rate for FY25. With that, I will now turn it back to Paulina for the Q&A.
Thank you, Neil. Operator, will you please give the instructions for the Q&A?
Absolutely. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. To withdraw your question, press star two. Please hold while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Yeah, thanks for taking the question and congrats on the results. I guess my first question is I want to ask you about the wireless piece of the business. It seems to be recovering. I think it was kind of You know, mid single digit, if I'm correct from the presentation, order growth in the quarter. I'm just curious of how you, you know, I guess the past conversations suggested that's more of a stabilizing business as we move through this year. Has that started to change as your view of growth kind of recovery in that business, you know, started to evolve or deepen, you know, as we look through this next fiscal year?
Yeah, thank you, Aaron. Indeed, a good quarter. We executed well and capitalized on the opportunities we saw. Specific to your question on wireless, we continue to feel more confident, I would say, after two quarters where the business has stabilized. And we're seeing more strengths on the infrastructure side where there's more activity from customers around Open RAN and 6G research. So that drives that. And on the devices side, it's lagging a little bit where customers still continue to be focused on ongoing standards evolutions. So, I mean, at this point, we continue to believe that the business will remain stable in 25. We'll call it when we see it. But we continue to feel good about the ongoing momentum we're seeing in our wireline business that's driven growth for commercial communications.
Yep. And then as a quick follow-up, kind of sticking with looking at some of the segments, the aerospace and defense segment, I'm curious because this question has come up with some investors. You know, it sounds like you're pretty confident that that business continues to progress on the growth profile that you outlined. But, you know, have you seen any, you know, areas of concern or any kind of, you know, churn in programs, et cetera, around some of the federal dynamics of spend? Any uncertainties around that that you would point to?
Yeah, I think, Aaron, the long-term trajectory of that business is actually the one that is easiest to forecast given the budget clarity that typically gets and the priorities that get set both in the U.S. and in allied nations. And if you look at electromagnetic spectrum operations, space and satellite and other areas, Those are the areas where defense modernization investments are moving to, and we feel good about our position. Relative to the year, obviously, orders were slightly down year over year, but off of a record compare from a year ago. And some of the wins that we had were systems wins, which take us a little longer to ship, so you haven't yet seen that in the revenue lines. But as we look ahead, obviously, the short term with the administration change in the U.S. does bring some uncertainties. But even at times like in 2016 where that happened, we just had some business morale between quarters. And so we'll monitor the situation, but we feel good about the current situation with regard to our business there. Yep. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Rob Mason with Baird. Your line is now open. I apologize. The next question is from Tim Long with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Yeah, two for me as well. First, you mentioned AI leading the strength in Wireline, obviously, a lot. William Boschelli, M.D.: : going on there a lot of activity could you maybe expand a little bit on on how big that business is getting for you, and maybe some examples of. William Boschelli, M.D.: : Newer areas that key side is being pulled into because of the move in Ai and then the second one, I just wanted to follow up on the the software services. William Boschelli, M.D.: : You know to 39% of revenues here, maybe just talk a little bit about that evolving part of the business model and how. how KeyTide is going to be able to move that number further and maybe impact on gross margin as that moves higher as well. Thank you.
Thank you, Tim. Clearly, you know, the waterline business has gained momentum this year driven by AI, but this is one of the examples of proof of concepts that I highlighted at Investor Day. uh last year and so we're quite pleased with the way the opportunity has progressed uh our waterline business has exceeded over a billion dollars in orders this year growing at double digit rates um and we service a broad set of customers um in that industry right you think about silicon designers system integrators nems hyperscalers and contract manufacturers so it's actually a broad set of customers but what's driving the activity in ai right now is actually a concentrated set of customers from hyperscalers that are investing in large infrastructure upgrades. So that's the effort. And the supply chain right now continues to be constrained. So investments are being made to unlock the supply chain to enable the scale to build. And so we're involved in that. We're capitalizing on that. But as we think about the future, we participated in some projects forums like the OCP and ECOC earlier this year, and you can start to see the scale expand. It's not yet reflected in the results yet, but we start to build scale around compute, whether it's centralized or at the edge, power and terminal being very big issues for companies. Networking technologies are being adopted, maybe even faster than they were being adopted before this AI became a big trend. And our opportunities we're excited about are not just in the physical layer, but in the protocol layer, allowing customers to emulate how traffic flows to an AI infrastructure and therefore optimize their investment. So we're pretty excited about the opportunities long-term here and capitalizing on the near-term strength.
Yeah, and then as it relates to software and services, obviously continuing to see a nice mixed shift towards those portions of our business. And, you know, as I think a part of your question addressed gross margin, you know, there could be software portions of those businesses are creative to KeySight's average gross margin. The services portions are slightly dilutive to KeySight's average gross margin. But overall, both the service business has a lower expense structure, so both contribute nicely to profitability when you think about it from the operating margin line.
And then, Tim, I would just add, this is Mark, as far as the expansion, You know, we've shown that it's more resilient to the current macro. Customers continue to invest in new methods, shifting left on virtual simulation and emulation of their systems to help reduce costs and increase efficiencies, and we're seeing that. And then the second part, of course, is the further leverage of some of our new assets like ESI It being exposed to more of our customers in different regions, the US for aerospace defense, parts of Asia with the broad key site footprint in those regions. We see that as a driver for additional growth as we go forward.
OK, thank you. Thank you, Tim.
Thank you. The next question is from Rob Jamieson with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.
Hey, guys. Congrats on the quarter. Just a couple of quick ones from me. Just first on the communications business, just what kind of benefit could we see from BEAD funding just in second half of 25? I mean, is there much benefit there if that funding does get actually released and finally comes to fruition? And then I guess, you know, also any potential risk of that, you know, being reversed, just given some of Trump's advisors at this point that have been anti-BID funding.
Yeah, I think, you know, the good thing about Keysight's business model in comms and, in fact, the rest of our business is the broad set of customers we serve, that diversity in breadth is a source of great strength during times of change. While we do pick up some incremental business every year from new logos that come up because they're funded directly or indirectly, there are some direct funding from government at times that flows into Open RAN. And we've called some of those wins out and even the CHIPS Act, but we're not heavily tethered to any one of those things. So I would just say that those are incremental in some ways, but not as... as material as maybe the headlines would suggest, especially because we're more involved in the R&D side of those labs. And so we forgot. I think the momentum we see because of our renewed focus on go-to-market expansion that we had put in place with marketing is the continued attraction of new logos that we see across our business that continues to be the focus for us moving forward as well.
That's really helpful. I appreciate that. And then I guess just on, you know, tariffs, just real quick. And just you guys have been dealing with this in one way or another for over eight years. You just talk about, you know, your previous strategies around, you know, your pivots in the APAC region. Just, you know, whether it's been Yahweh, ZTE or, you know, even the Trump tariffs, just how you've kind of managed that in the past.
Yeah, I would just say, you know, it's probably a question behind the question, if I'm understanding you right, is what are the implications of the U.S. elections and therefore the policy changes that might ensue. And so, like everybody, we're monitoring three areas, tax, trade, both tariffs and trade restrictions, right, areas, and along with defense spending that might ensue. It would be premature for us to comment on them. except to say that we've been pretty agile in ensuring compliance when there is a new government restriction and pivoting our sales resources to go after new opportunities. A potential offset could be, and again, I'm breaking my rule and speculating a little bit, is if there were to be tariffs of the orders being discussed today, Many companies are looking to more of China and to other areas in Southeast Asia, and we remain prepared to capitalize on the opportunities should that occur.
Got it. So similar to like what we saw with reshoring and everything during supply chain disruptions, you know, the benefit that we saw there. Exactly. Exactly. Great, great.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Rob Mason with Baird. Your line is now open.
Good afternoon. And again, nice jump on the quarter. Just with respect to your thoughts around 2025 revenue, Satish, I know you covered some of the segments, but just at a high level, I mean, is it fair to think you think All of your major, you know, I'll say segments, again, we're talking wireline, wireless, automotive, general electronics, some of these verticals. Would all of them have an opportunity to grow in 25, do you think, you know, within the kind of mid-single-digit profile that you're talking about? Automotive sounded like maybe it was the most challenged, but I'd just like to get your thoughts there around all.
Yeah, that's good. Look, our job number one, Rob, was to stabilize the business and return to order growth, which we set out as a priority for the second half. And I'm quite pleased that we've executed to that. Now, looking at the facts, you'd say CSG has returned to growth for the full year from an order perspective. And EISG is yet to do that. So that sort of summarizes the mixed demand environment. And just projecting forward, we expect continued sort of slow, gradual recovery as we move into 2025. We're not baking in, in our base case, all segments inflecting. And should that happen, we'll be prepared to capitalize on it. But our base case that Neil's called out in his outlook section is for 5% revenue growth and 10% EPS growth for the year.
Yes. Okay, that's helpful. Just as a follow-up, and maybe this directed to Neil, just, you know, with the higher ESI revenue in the first quarter, you know, I would assume that the gross margin, you know, will reflect that at least sequentially. You know, could you maybe give us a little bit of thoughts around your OPEX as you trend in, you know, from fourth quarter into first quarter? There's often some TAB, Mark McIntyre, Some resets and those seasonality as well influences that but i'm just kind of curious what kind of trajectory offices is on as you enter the new year.
TAB, Mark McIntyre, yeah let me just touch on a couple of seasonality related comments and she sent you both from the door to that, I think, first of all, I, as you mentioned, with regard to gross margin. With the sizable uptick in ESI revenue, we would expect some gross margin upside from that business in Q1. Similarly, though, then as you move from Q1 to Q2, you have reverse effect as that revenue comes out of the model. So just if you put it on one side, you've got to take it out on the other side. With regard to OPEX, just reminding you of some things that are kind of the norm for Keysight is, We do do salary administration for the entire company here in the first quarter of the year, so that will be impacting the P&L starting essentially now. And then as the business influx from a period of contraction back to a period of growth, we have essentially our variable pay programs turning back on, which will increase OPEX here starting in the first half of next year.
Very good. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Matt Nicknam with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Hey, guys. Thank you so much for taking the question. On macro, I'm curious if you can speak to how that backdrop has evolved over the last quarter. It seems like there's some pockets that are getting better yet. It seems like others like auto that are maybe a little bit softer. So any general commentary on the macro backdrop you can provide? And then just as a follow-up, on aerospace defense, can you talk about maybe what changed later in the quarter? You mentioned a very strong closeout to the quarter, particularly around the U.S. I'm just curious in terms of, you know, what changed and how maybe that's trended into the start of fiscal 1Q. Thanks.
Yeah, why don't I start by making some comments about macro, and then we'll let Mark Wallace make some comments about the broader aerospace defense business. You know, so first of all, as Satish mentioned in his prepared comments, you know, the results in Q4 were marginally better than we expected coming into the quarter. And so I think that's possible, a lot of that strength itself. was in aerospace defense, and so Mark will talk about that. But I think as you think about macro changes, and the previous question alluded to this as well,