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Kinder Morgan, Inc.
4/16/2025
all include forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Before making any investment decisions, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release, as well as review our latest filings with the SEC for important material assumptions, expectations, and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements. On several of these investor calls, I've expressed my view and that of other leaders and experts in our industry about the potential for extraordinary growth in the demand for natural gas in America and abroad. This optimistic view of the market and its favorable impact on the growth and prosperity of midstream energy companies like Kinder Morgan was embraced during the last year or so by a significant number of investors and analysts. That view seemed to accelerate with the perceived opportunity for natural gas to fuel AI and data centers. Recently, that optimistic view has been questioned by some on a couple of different grounds. First, in the aftermath of the Deep Seek announcement, it seemed to some critics that growth in gas demand for data centers and electric power in general was too optimistic. Secondly, the announcement of expanded tariffs by the Trump administration inspired others to question whether this would result in less demand for US LNG, thereby reducing the amount of feed gas required in this country. Let me try to put all of this in perspective by detailing how we view the drivers of natural gas demand growth over the rest of this decade. Let's start with some history as prologue to the future. In 2005, U.S. demand for natural gas was approximately 60 BCF a day. In 2024, that demand was almost 109 BCF a day, an increase of roughly 80%. That's pretty astounding growth over that 20-year span. Now let's look at the future growth between now and the end of this decade, with all due deference to Mark Twain's famous quip that making predictions is very difficult, especially if they concern the future. Most estimates of growth between now and 2030 range between 20 and 28 BCF a day, and our internal projections also fall in that range. The overwhelming driver of that growth is increased LNG export demand. We estimate that growth to be somewhere around 16 BCF a day, with the great bulk of that coming from facilities already under construction or that have been FID. To FID a project means it is supported by long-term contracts with creditworthy entities. Otherwise, these facilities simply could not be financed. I might add parenthetically that our contracts with LNG export facilities are also supported by long-term contracts. But notwithstanding those facts, the naysayers argue that a trade war with China will lead to a diminution in need for U.S. LNG. In response, let me mention two countervailing factors. First, China has not imported any U.S. LNG since February, and yet feed gas demand is setting records. averaging 15.5 BCF a day in the first quarter and approaching 17 BCF a day on several recent days. Secondly, our view is that any loss of the Chinese market will be more than offset by the efforts of governments in the EU and Asia to increase the imports of U.S. LNG to reduce trade imbalances and put themselves in a better negotiating position with regard to U.S. tariffs. South Korea and Indonesia, for example, are already in specific discussions on that strategy. And regarding the EU, we believe Europe's apparent and off-stated reluctance to ever again allow Russia to be the dominant supplier of natural gas to Europe will obviously increase its use of US LNG. Based on all these factors, we remain very bullish on growth in US LNG exports. Now, in addition to growth in LNG feed gas demand, we see NYSEC upticks in exports to Mexico, power demand driven in part by the surge in AI and data centers, and residential commercial use. Anecdotally, the new projects we have announced at Kinder Morgan over the last couple of quarters are supported in large part by long-term contracts with utilities in the southeastern U.S., an indication of the need for more gas to feed electric generation. The point of all this detail is to put into perspective the drivers of demand for the product we transport so that any intelligent investor can make a reasoned assessment of the natural gas market for the rest of this decade and not be whipsawed by the perceived ups and downs of just one or two facets of the growth story. In truth, that growth is supported, we believe, by an array of factors that reflect the strength of natural gas as an important source of energy for years to come. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kim.
Okay, thanks, Rich. We had a good quarter. The financial results, which David will take you through, are essentially in line with our expectations. For the year, we currently expect to exceed budget by at least the contribution from the outrigger acquisition. Our natural gas performance versus budget is very strong. In the first quarter, we saw record natural gas demand with demand in the market growing by 6.8 billion cubic feet a day, driven by 10% increase in residential and commercial demand and a 15% increase in LNG demand. Future natural gas fundamentals continue to be strong with demand expected to grow between now and 2030 as Rich just took you through. And I would add that even if a portion of the roughly $7 trillion in new U.S. investment the administration has announced occurs, we believe that would drive demand that is not currently captured in projection. During the quarter, we added approximately $900 million to our project backlog, taking the backlog to $8.8 billion after adjusting for the projects placed in service. Of the 900 million, over 70% is primarily focused on serving power demand. The largest project, Bridge, is a $430 million extension of our Elba Express pipeline supported by a 30-year contract. It will deliver about 325 million cubic feet a day into South Carolina to primarily serve increased power demand and is easily expandable to over a BCF a day. Of course, there's been a lot of attention paid to tariffs. At this point, we do not believe that the tariffs will have a significant impact on project economics. For our new large projects, Mississippi Crossing, South System Expansion IV, Trident, GCX, and Bridge, that together comprise approximately two-thirds of our backlog, we currently estimate the impact of tariffs to be roughly 1% of project costs. We've worked to mitigate the potential impact by pre-ordering certain equipment, negotiating caps on tariff impacts, and securing domestic steel and mill capacity. For these projects, we've locked in the cost of the finished steel pipe and less than 10% is exposed to tariffs. In addition, to the extent we get some permitting relief, there may be the opportunity to bring these projects or portions of the project in service earlier than planned helping to offset any impact of tariffs. From an operations perspective, we're still in the process of evaluating the impact of tariffs. We don't expect it to be material to 2025, but the uncertainty of tariffs along with commodity prices did cause us to be a little bit more conservative in communicating our outlook for the year at this point. During the quarter, we closed on the previously announced $640 million acquisition of the Bakken Gathering and Processing System, which nicely complements our existing assets in that Basement. When you look at the results for the quarter, there isn't much impact from this acquisition, given that we only owned it for 45 days and all the transaction costs were expensed in the quarter. But it is performing in line with our expectations. Despite the volatility in the market, we have a very resilient business. Almost two-thirds of the EBITDA is generated from take-or-pay contracts. Roughly 30% is fee-based or hedged, with only 5% of our EBITDA exposed to commodity prices. We expect to continue to generate nice cash flow and fund our attractive backlog of projects, which are substantially backed by long-term contracts from creditworthy entities while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Finally, on management succession, Tom Martin has announced his intention to retire in January 2026, at which time he will assume an advisory role to the board of directors and to the office of the chairman. In that role, he will continue to help the company execute on our tremendous backlog of natural gas projects. At that time, Dax Sanders, who many of you already know, will succeed Tom as president. Dax is currently president of the products business segment and has a thorough understanding of the company, having been here for approximately 23 years and served in a variety of different roles. Tom and Dax will start the transition process in August, at which time Mike Garthwaite will become president of Products Pipeline. This is the plan we contemplated and prepared for in our succession planning. And with that, I'll turn it over to Tom to give you more details on the business performance for the quarter.
Thanks, Kim. Starting with the natural gas business unit, Transport volumes were up 3% in the quarter versus the first quarter of 2024.
New peak day volume records.