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Kinder Morgan, Inc.
10/22/2025
Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. Your lines are in a listen only mode until the question and answer session of today's conference. At that time, you may press star followed by the number one to ask a question. Please unmute your phone and state your first and last name when prompted. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan.
Thank you, Michelle. As usual, before we begin, I'd like to remind you that KMI's earnings released today and this call include forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Before making any investment decision, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosure on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release, as well as review our latest filings with the SEC for important material assumptions, expectations, and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements. I think we all recognize the positives and negatives of publicly traded companies. One of the biggest pitfalls is the undue concentration on quarter-to-quarter or even day-to-day issues, many of which are relatively inconsequential in terms of the long-term success of the enterprise. With that in mind, I thought I'd take this opportunity to stress two important substantive factors that will impact the future of Kendra Morgan, the natural gas story, and the long-term strategy of our company. Obviously, the two are intimately related. On the natural gas demand front, there are two huge drivers. The first is a continued rapid growth in LNG feed gas demand driven by the enormous expansion of export facilities primarily along the Gulf Coast. While industry experts differ somewhat, there's a pretty broad consensus that demand will at least double between 2024 and 2030. In fact, S&P's Commodity Insights recently estimated that increase at 130%, which implies a demand of 31 to 32 BCF a day in 2030. As an example of this growing demand, six LNG projects have reached FID so far in 2025. Feed gas demand for those facilities alone when completed will be 9 PCF a day. Now there's more variance in assessing the impact of the second driver, which is the increasing demand for electricity, primarily to serve AI data centers. There will clearly be huge additional demand for electricity, but how much of that will be captured by natural gas? Let's look at the alternatives. Certainly renewables will play a major role, but can't handle the entire load given AI needs for uninterrupted power 24-7 not just when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing but can't this be fixed by pairing wind or solar farms with massive batteries to store power and release it in a steady stream when needed well that sounds intriguing but there's serious drawbacks to this option because batteries are expensive and limited in the time they can cover and renewables of the size to serve ai centers require enormous space a recent article in the new york times of all places estimated that to continuously produce just one gigawatt, a solar farm would need 12.5 million solar panels, enough to cover 5,000 football fields, and wind turbines would require even more space. Another source of power is nuclear, which generates steady power from relatively small footprint, but this is an industry that unfortunately has been basically dormant for over 40 years, and new nuclear facilities are very expensive, and would likely take 7 to 10 years to come online. This means that AI sponsor would not have the facilities when needed and would be gambling billions of dollars that the demand will still be there a decade or so from now. That leaves natural gas, which is abundant and reasonably priced, and the infrastructure to produce power from natural gas is relatively quick to build. Reasonably, like I've just outlined, is why we believe that AI data center needs will supplement in a very meaningful way the tremendous increases in LNG feed gas demand. And in combination, the two drivers will ensure a huge and growing market for natural gas in the years and decades to come. Now, let me conclude by again emphasizing the long-term strategy at Kinder Morgan. We are a prolific generator of cash and are fortunate to have the majority of our assets employed in a true growth segment of the energy business, namely the transportation of natural gas. These two characteristics dovetail nicely. The tremendous growth in natural gas demand drives the opportunity for expanding and extending our pipeline and terminal networks and adding new facilities as evidenced by the 9 billion plus of projects already approved by our board. And we generate the cash internally to fund those projects while maintaining a healthy and modestly growing dividend. Now, to be clear, we have to complete these projects on time and on budget, but our track record in that regard is good, and we're benefiting from a federal regulatory process that is more supportive of projects like ours. While our base business is relatively flat, these capital projects will drive substantial growth in EBITDA and EPS for years to come. This is a simple, but in my mind, very compelling strategy. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kim.
Okay, thanks, Rich. We're pleased to report another strong quarter with EBITDA up 6% and adjusted EPS growing 16% year on year. These results reflect the strength of our underlying business and the continued execution on our growth projects. We currently expect to exceed our full year budget due to the contributions from the outrigger acquisition. This outperformance would be greater if not for lower than budgeted D3 REN prices and RNG volumes. Currently, the RNG volumes are much closer to budget, but rent prices remain weak. The natural gas segment, which accounts for two thirds of our business is outperforming its budget, even excluding outrigger. Our expansion backlog remains flat at 9.3 billion. With the approximately 500Million of new projects offset by projects placed in service. The backlog multiple continues to be below six times, consistent with our disciplined approach to capital deployment. The mix of new projects added to the backlog this quarter has split roughly 50% natural gas, primarily supporting power generation, and 50% the refined product tankage. Looking ahead, our opportunity set remains exceptionally compelling. We're actively pursuing over $10 billion in potential projects primarily in natural gas, underscoring the continued demand for our services and the strength of our platform. As I mentioned last quarter, the scale of opportunities we're evaluating today is comparable to when our backlog stood at just $3 billion, highlighting the consistency and the resiliency of our growth pipeline. Our gas infrastructure, more than 66,000 miles of pipeline connecting all major basins and demand centers positions us as a critical player in energy infrastructure. Today we transport over 40% of the natural gas in the United States, including more than 40% of the volume headed to LNG export facilities, 25% of the gas fueling U.S. natural gas power plants, and 50% of the gas exported to Mexico. Looking forward, our internal projections estimate 28 BCF a day increase in natural gas demand by 2030, driven primarily by growth in LNG exports as well as power and exports to Mexico. Wood Mackenzie forecast a similar trend, projecting 22 BCF a day of growth in overall natural gas demand. With our strategically located assets, we are well positioned to capture a meaningful share of this expansion. Our current $9.3 billion backlog is a strong foundation for long-term, high-quality growth. A very significant portion of this backlog is supported by take or pay contracts, providing both stability and visibility into future cash flows. And as we continue to advance our development pipeline, we expect to convert a portion of the $10 billion opportunity set into additional backlog, further reinforcing our growth trajectory. We remain confident in our strategy, our execution, and our ability to deliver long-term value for our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn it over to Tom Martin to walk through the business performance in more detail.
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