8/3/2020

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Cosmos Energy's second quarter 2020 conference call. Just a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, let me turn the call over to Jamie Buckland, Vice President of Investor Relations at Cosmos Energy.

speaker
Jamie Buckland
Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Operator. And thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, we issued our second quarter earnings release. This release and the slide presentation to accompany today's call are available on the Investors page of our website. Joining me on the call today to go through that material are Andy Ingalls, Chairman and CEO, and Neil Shah, CFO. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note in this presentation and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement, and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website. At this time, I will turn the call over to Andy.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning and good afternoon to everyone. I'll start today's presentation with the highlights for the quarter before passing over to Neil, who will talk through the financials and the balance sheets. I'll then finish with a look forward to the second half of the year and into 2021. Turning the slide to the highlights for the quarter. Cosmos delivered strong operational performance in a challenging quarter for the sector, which saw record low oil prices and unprecedented volatility. We delivered production of around 60,000 barrels oil equivalent per day, which is in line with the guidance we gave at the first quarter and reflects the May shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, which reduced overall company production by around 6,000 barrels oil equivalent per day in the quarter. We remain on track to deliver the cost reduction set out early in the year, with reductions across OPEX per barrel and G&A of around 5% to 15% for the first quarter. We project an increased impact in the third and fourth quarters as additional OPEX and G&A reductions are reflected and CapEx reduces in line with a decrease in activity set. Importantly, these cost savings are not expected to have a long-term impact to the portfolio or our operations, and they will help position Cosmos as a leaner company that can perform strongly as the sector recovers over time. In addition to these sustainable cost savings, we also took steps to ensure the balance sheet remains in a solid position. During the quarter, we increased our liquidity position through a prepayment agreement with Trafigura, which Neil will talk about in more detail shortly. We ended June with around $600 million of liquidity. Importantly, at current oil prices, we've reached a cash flow inflection point. meaning we expect to generate free cash flow to the second half of the year and into 2021, which we expect to use to reduce our year-end net debt and enhance liquidity. As we look to the future, we continue to make good progress on the greater torture development, despite COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in Mauritania and Senegal. Phase one of the project is now around 40% complete, with an increase of 7% in the quarter, with activity ramping up in key areas. On exploration, we're high-grading our prospects for 2021 with a combination of proven basin infrastructure-led targets and self-funded basin opening tests expected in 2021. Turning to slide three. As I mentioned on the previous slide, COSMOS delivered strong operational performance in the second quarter with net production of 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in line with previous guidance. In Ghana, net production of 29,000 barrels of oil per day was at the high end of our guidance. Jubilee continues to perform well with high reliability, delivering gross production of around 90,000 barrels of oil per day within the quarter. This was achieved through consistent water injection and gas offtake. More recently, we've continued to make further progress with record water injection rates since the field was commissioned, coupled with increased gas offtake, supporting our objective of lowering the field-wide gas-oil ratio. We remain encouraged by the enhanced collaboration with the operator and alignment of the partnership to focus on consistent delivery and improving reliability. A 10 growth production of around 50,000 barrels of oil per day was in line with guidance. The NT09, while expected online shortly, is expected to increase 10 production to the second half of the year. In Extraordinary Guinea, net production of 11,000 barrels of oil per day was in line with guidance. In the Gulf of Mexico, net production was around 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter past. which is in line with our guidance reflecting the May shut-ins that we flagged in our first quarter results. In addition, the Tornado 4 well has completed drilling, and we are now completing the well. We expect the well to be online around the beginning of the fourth quarter. Late in July, we experienced a hydrate in the gas export line of the Delta House platform, resulting in a temporary shut-in of the facilities. The operator is currently working to remove the hydrate blockage, which we expect to occur later this month. Full year guidance for the Gulf of Mexico remains at the low end of the guidance range. Turning to slide four, I want to talk briefly about our COVID-19 response. Since the pandemic began, we've focused on guiding the company through a challenging period. However, we haven't lost sight of our responsibility to the countries and local communities where we operate. This slide shows a few examples of how we're doing our part. Working with governments and local communities, we've procured and donated medical supplies and other vital equipment to assist COVID-19 response efforts. While the slide features four countries in West Africa, We have been involved in similar projects across our entire portfolio. This important work reflects our commitment to be a force for good. It's consistent on how we have supported communities in the past, particularly during the 2014 Ebola outbreak. With that, I'll now hand over to Neil, who will take you through the financials for the quarter in more detail.

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Andy. Turning to side five, the key financial items for the quarter. As mentioned, production of 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day was in line with previous guidance and included the impact of the May shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico. One area I want to draw your attention to is the price realization during the quarter. As Andy talked about in May when we reported 1Q results, there was a significant dislocation between quoted oil prices and those realized. The dislocation was largely due to lower demand and buyers passing through materially higher shipping costs to the producers. In addition, the timing of our sold volumes played a large role in our realized pricing. Due to listing timing, we sold approximately 60% of our volume in the second quarter in the month of April, where benchmark prices were at their lowest. Realizations have now returned to normal, with GOM production and international cargoes sold at benchmark prices or slightly above. I don't plan to talk through every line item on this slide, but as you can see, we are in line with guidance in most instances. On CapEx, we remain on target for full-year guidance, as the second half is expected to be materially lower than the first half due to the phasing of expenditures. Similarly, in OpEx, we expect costs to trend lower in the second half. We are making no change to our full year 2020 guidance. Turning to slide six, the balance sheet. We ended Q2 with over $600 million of liquidity, including $160 million of cash. The prepayment agreement with Trafigura announced in June enhanced our liquidity position and provides Cosmos with a new source of liquidity secured against our future Gulf of Mexico production primarily in 2022 and 2023. It provides Cosmos with low-cost capital and gives us the flexibility to potentially take advantage of opportunities that may arise in a dislocated market. In addition, if oil prices rise, we can repay the prepayment earlier and benefit from higher oil prices. Net debt increased in 2Q by around $65 million in the second quarter. the majority of which was the result of a build in working capital. Net debt should start to reverse in the second half of the year as the business is expected to generate free cash flow in the current environment. As a result of the lower realized prices we discussed earlier, EBITDAX in the second quarter was lower than forecast and will impact our net debt to EBITDAX covenant as we move through the year. At the full year, we anticipate that leverage could get higher than our original three and a half times net debt covenant. As a result, we have proactively sought out a waiver from our banks, which provides additional temporary headroom until the end of 2021. Even with the waiver in place, we are working to minimize future leverage. We continue to have a very constructive dialogue with our banks and appreciate all of their support to ensure Cosmos remains well-positioned take advantage of the current market. Early actions taken to reduce costs have resulted in low cash flow breakeven of around $35 per barrel for the 2Q to 4Q period and positioned the company well to generate free cash flow in the second half of the year. At current prices, we expect to generate material free cash flow going forward, allowing us to pay down debt in the second half of the year and into 2021 while continuing to fund selective growth opportunities. With that, I'll hand it back to Andy for the remainder of the presentation.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Neil. Turning to slide seven. In Mauritania and Senegal, despite COVID-19 mitigations, the Greater Tortue Project continues to advance. The four key work streams detailed on this slide have all seen meaningful progress since we last reported in May. The FPSO, which has been constructed in China, is now around 40% complete, and the floating LNG vessel being built in Singapore is over 50% complete. In Senegal, the case of construction yard in Dakar is closed due to COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, progress on the breakwater work stream continues with delivery of rock from the quarry in Mauritania. The progress made during the pandemic continues to de-risk the overall project schedule, which is now 40% complete. The good progress has helped create further momentum in the sell-down process, which remains ongoing. Turning to slide eight. As we start to generate free cash flow to the second half of the year and into 2021, we plan to prioritize the pay down of debt in the near term. That said, we still expect to be active with a high-quality portfolio of exploration assets, both proven base and ILX, and frontier opportunities. Our first use of discretionary cash is expected to be short-cycle, high-return, lower-risk ILX opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico and Equatorial Guinea, where we're excited by our high-graded opportunity set. We also remain focused on reducing our interest in Suriname, Namibia, in principle, which would allow us to retain upside of future drilling activity at very little to no cost to COSMOS. These processes continue to make good progress. We expect to provide a full update on our 2021 exploration plans when we report our 3Q numbers in November. Turning to slide 9 and to conclude today's presentation, I'd like to summarize the key points we've made today before opening up the Q&A. Cosmos delivered good underlying performance while navigating a challenging second quarter. Operationally, we delivered in line with prior guidance, and we've maintained company guidance for the full year. The balance sheet is in a solid position, and at current strip prices, we've reached a free cash flow inflection point. And finally, we're preparing for the future with growth through LNG and high return, fast payback expiration in 2021 and beyond. Thank you, and I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator to open the session for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your lines in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Charles Mead with Johnson Rice.

speaker
Charles Mead
Analyst, Johnson Rice

Good morning, Andy, to you and your team there, or afternoon as it may be. I wanted to ask a question. You mentioned the Tortue sell-down efforts are ongoing. Is there any more color to add there? Is there a time frame that we should be thinking about for when an announcement may be more probable or less probable?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, hi, Charles. I think if you just sort of step back and look at the whole sell-down process, I think 2020 was really about, you know, first phase of activity was to get the data room set up with all of the input from the exploration success we had at the back end of last year and differentiate the buyers between those looking for the broader resource play and those that were looking to participate in the Tour 2 project. Clearly with the COVID-19 mitigation measures, we had a project in Torchu that was kind of stalled at the beginning of the quarter. I think what we've demonstrated is that we continue to make really good progress on the project in 2Q, which was important for those buyers looking at Torchu. And, you know, we've worked alongside BP to reestablish the timelines and I think build confidence around that. So I think now the process is about engagement with those buyers, particularly around Tortue on the back of the progress we've made and a project that ultimately is going to come forward with first gas at a time when we see opportunity in the LNG market. And I think it's just worth sort of reminding that it is because the innovative development concept, a scheme that is top quartile in terms of cost, and is a vast resource in terms of the potential to continue to grow the project to a 10 million ton per annum scheme. So that's where we are in the process, Charles. I think I don't want to, you know, get boxed in with timelines. But what I would say is that the conversations are ongoing with the buyer pool. And for us, ultimately, It is obviously getting to the right deal, a deal that enables us to build a project go forward, which is self-financing, but still is a meaningful contribution to Cosmos.

speaker
Charles Mead
Analyst, Johnson Rice

Got it. That's all very helpful commentary, Andy. If I could ask a question about Suriname. Apache, I think since the last time we spoke, Apache has had a couple of discoveries on the block inboard from you guys, Campanian and Santonian. And I'm just curious if what they have found there would either elevate or maybe elevate your Suriname prospects for 21 or alternatively maybe cause you to rethink your targets there.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

No, look, I think what's been important about the Apache well results, and particularly the last well result, is the Santonian. Clearly, you know, it's come in. I think there's still some work to do, I think, on the typing of the hydrocarbon there. But I think that they have, you know, Apache have demonstrated both hydrocarbon-bearing zones in the Campanian and in the Santonian. So as you look at the block, we're looking at a play where we know that's quality reservoir, and we know that that exists down dip, and the down dip locations that we're targeting are the same reservoir sections that Apache have drilled in the campaign in the San Antonio. So from a reservoir perspective, it is encouraging. We know it's a supercharged basin, And I think the success that Apache have had in sort of replicating the Lisa-type structure on the shelf has demonstrated that. And then, clearly, we're targeting a different play type. We're targeting a play type which is down-dip and outboard. But I think the success in the Santonian and the quality of the reservoir is clearly an important part of of understanding the overall prospectivity in the basin, and particularly in Block 42. Thanks for those thoughts, Andy. Great, thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from the line of David Round with BMO Capital Markets. Pleased to see you with your question.

speaker
David Round
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hi, Andy. Thanks for the presentation. Can I start with Jubilee? $90,000 a day seems to be a pretty good outcome so far, so really just trying to gauge your thoughts about the second half. If I look at your guidance, it certainly seems to imply that it's possible to maintain production up at these levels, but just sort of wondering how likely you think it is that you can maintain production at or around 90,000. And I might just ask on the GOM as well, you mentioned some high return projects there. Obviously, there's still an element of exploration risk attached to the ILX stuff. So, do the high return projects you talked about also come with very high chance of success? I'm really just trying to gauge the risk appetite at the moment, whether that's changed and how quickly we could potentially see activity ramp up there.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, okay, thanks, David. Yeah, just on Jubilee, I think, you know, I think it's just worth sort of stabbing back and just sort of looking at the numbers. I think, you know, Year to date, through the end of July, production is around 85,000 barrels a day, and that included the shutdowns in the first quarter. As you said, production was strong in the second quarter at 89,000 barrels a day, and the field is currently doing around 90,000. You know, the most important thing is in terms of sustaining that is managing the GOR. And as I said, we're managing to sort of inject record levels of water, actually higher since the first year of commissioning, actually, and with consistent gas offtake. So I think that, you know, all of that, I think, you know, underpins our confidence in the forward projections that we have. You know, today's performance is absolutely sort of representative. of what we think is possible going forward. Gulf of Mexico, you know, it's interesting, you know, sort of taking the interregnum, as it were, and pausing allows us to go back and really, you know, high-grade the hopper. And you're not rigged ribbon. You have the opportunity to absolutely sort through and make sure you're drilling the very best first. And I think the opportunities that we've identified in the Mississippi Canyon area are high quality. And, you know, we're genuinely excited. We've had a chance to sort of rework the seismic. And therefore, I think it is about, you know, exploration success comes from having quality through choice, focusing on the very best things. and ensuring that you're doing the lowest risk opportunities first. And the reminder is in that Mississippi Canyon area, you know, the former, you know, DG had a success rate of around 60%. And I think we're absolutely targeting that type of quality of opportunity. So I don't think it's actually about changing our risk appetite in any way. I think we're going sort of back to the future in terms of the nature of the prospects we'd be drilling. And actually taking a time out allows you to get absolutely confident that you're executing on that strategy, that the data supports it, and you've got time to do it. So, you know, I'm very much sort of, you know, genuinely looking forward to getting on with that ILX program now because I think we've got a really quality set of opportunities. Okay.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thanks, Andy. Great. Thanks, David. The next question is from the line of Richard Tullis with Capital One. Please proceed with your question.

speaker
Richard Tullis
Analyst, Capital One

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Andy, in the press release, you talked a little bit about free cash flow possibility into 2021. What kind of free cash flow range might you be able to achieve next year using current, say, oil outlook, $40 WTI, roughly $45 Brent?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, okay. Thanks, Richard. I think I want to be slightly cautious about giving hard numbers for next year because I think we're at a point where we're still optimizing the activity set. What I would say is in the second half of the year, we are going to see us move into a free cash flow positive zone. Why? We're obviously seeing higher prices. We've actually got more of our production in the second half of the year than we have in the first half of the year, 60% in the second half of the year. We're going to see the cost actions flow through, and we believe those are sustainable, and we're going to see the reverse of the working capital build. So I think that we're definitely at that point of inflection where we're confident about the scale of free cash flow, generation, the direction. I think the absolute amount, it will be around just the pace at which some of the working capital movements unwind. And that's about the pace in which the forward activity sets. But I think what I can say today is that we're confident it's material at the current prices. And I think at 3Q, we can give you a much more accurate prognosis as to what the figures will be. But it's material, and we're at the point now where we can actually see that trajectory emerging.

speaker
Richard Tullis
Analyst, Capital One

Okay, and that's helpful. Thank you. And just as a follow-up, at this point, what do you think or estimate the CapEx level is to hold production flat next year, say, with what you expect for a 4Q20 average?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, you see, what I would say is it's going to be pretty consistent to this year, yeah? So, you know, we were in the sort of 200, 225 range. I think it's absolutely within that range, yeah? Maybe a little better, actually, as you say, because you're sort of coming down to a normalized level. So I think in terms of the capex required to sustain the business going forward, we're absolutely in that range. Okay. Okay. Thanks a bunch. I appreciate it. Great. Thanks, Richard.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from the line of Nick Stefano with Renaissance Capital. Please receive your questions.

speaker
Nick Stefano
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Hi, guys. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple to ask them. The first one is just going to go back to David's question for production in Ghana. Is that the guidance you offer early to the operators that they are quite substantially dependent So could you maybe outline what the main differences are in your assumptions, especially what Taro assumes there for production, both at Jubilee and 10, for example, half of the year? And then my second question is in regards to liquidity and finding maybe a total capex for next year in case you don't manage to farm it down Would it be possible to refinance the RBL and include the Gulf of Mexico in Tortue Reserve to increase the borrowing base in order to fund the cost there? Or is it not something that you would explore doing?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Thank you. All right. Thanks, Nick. Why don't I take the Jubilee question and I'll pass it over to Neil just to sort of talk through where we are on liquidity and then the RBL and then the reserve base in Tortue, yeah? Look on Jubilee, I think all I'd repeat is fundamentally our forecast is based on the current performance of the asset. And, you know, what is that performance? You know, year to date, it's done 85,000 barrels a day. That included a significant shutdown in the first quarter. 2Q was 89. We're currently, you know, you know, at or around 90,000 barrels a day. And, you know, we're putting enhanced amounts of water in the reservoir and consistently taking gas out, which actually manages the GLR. So I think, you know, those are the fundamental, you know, so I think we'd say our forecast really has been consistent. You know, we haven't changed guidance on Jubilee from the start of the year to where we are now. We're seven months in and the performance of the field is replicating exactly what we initially forecast at the beginning. So I think that's the fundamental point that I want to get across is that, you know, we've had a very consistent approach to it. Performance has actually been in line with that. And we continue to make good progress on the key performance parameter, which is ensuring that we get water in the ground and gas out of the reservoir. So, Neil, do you want to cover the question on liquidity, RBL, borrowing base for Torchoo?

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, sure. And so, hi, Nick. Yeah, I mean, in terms of liquidity, as you mentioned, we have around $600 million on the books today. And we expect to generate free cash both in the second half of this year and into 2021. So we're good from that perspective. One of the options that we have looked at is sort of a fallback option or backup option to the financing or to the sales process in TOR2 is can you put financing against it and you're right that we have flexibility within the RBL to put it within the RBL. So that's something we got from the banks actually in 2018 when we refinanced that facility. And so there is the option to put it within the RBL. There is project financing available, options that we've looked at to provide some competitive tension within the RBL. the overall sales process. And so we know those options exist and we'll continue to sort of pursue those. But it is a valid option that we have the capability to push forward.

speaker
Nick Stefano
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Okay, very clear. And just a quick follow-up. That prepayment advance, is it treated as debt by the banks or credit rating agencies?

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so it's not debt. from an accounting perspective. But as part of the waiver process we mentioned on the call, what we agreed with the banks is ultimately we would count what was accelerated or advanced payments from the prepayment in the leverage calculation. And so even though it's not debt, we'll include it within the calculation in the exchange for getting the waiver on the absolute leverage limits.

speaker
Nick Stefano
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Got it.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of James Carmichael with Berenberg. Pleased to see you with your questions.

speaker
James Carmichael
Analyst, Berenberg

Hi. Afternoon, guys. Just to, I think, firstly on the covenant waiver, I think you said that was in place until the end of 2021. I'm just interested to know, at current oil prices, how long do you expect to actually need that waiver or is that just there to give you a bit of headroom? And then on tour two, are you thinking about the delay to that project? Is that giving the JV the chance to take some time out and maybe reassess the cost profile of phase one, or is everything locked in there now? Thanks. Yeah, thanks, James.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

I'll take the tour two question and then pass over to Neil on the covenants. Yeah, look, I think on Tortue, it's actually been a really constructive process in the quarter. The operator has sort of, you know, been able to step back and look at each of the individual work streams, ensure the work streams that could progress, you know, have progressed at the right pace, and reschedule the key area, which is around the placement of the caissons, which was, you know, the interreg number caused the year shift. I think what you get out from all of that is you get two things, which is by really being sharply focused on the cash flows, we've worked hard to preserve the economics of the project. And then I think the second part about it is you're actually sort of de-risking delivery, which has been an important conversation with buyers because, you know, we shot a little photograph. on the slide of the quarrying work in Mauritania has actually continued. So we're building up a stockpile of rock, which means that when we start to build the caissons, we're not worried about that particular critical path. The FPSO was always the tightest part of the critical path from the offshore facility side. And again, we've had the opportunity now to sort of rephrase that and ensure that it's no longer on the critical path. So actually, you know, I sort of look at the project now and actually feel as though, you know, do we have a very credible timeline? Yes, we do. You know, does it have appropriate contingency in it? Yes, it does. And have we managed to rephrase the contracts to secure the economics? You know, yes, we have. So actually, you know, in some respects, it's actually a, quote, a better project. So with that, I'll pass over to Neil just to talk about the covenants and the waiver.

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Hi, James. Yeah, so as far as the waiver goes, what we're really trying to solve around was the impact to 2Q. So 2Q is clearly impacted by the differentials and the cargo timing. So really the inclusion of that Q2 number within the LTM EBITDAX calc, it's really what creates the temporary pressure on the covenant. And so given that it's temporary and a result of sort of the oil price crunch last quarter, the banks were happy to support us around that. And we pushed to extend that into the second half of 21 beyond that ratio just to provide extra cushion given volatility in oil prices and ultimately continue to de-risk the story. So Q2 is a real impact. Once you get beyond that, it sort of normalizes by itself.

speaker
James Carmichael
Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Thanks very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Great. Thanks. The next question is from the line of James Hoisey with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

speaker
James Hoisey
Analyst, Barclays

Hello, good morning or afternoon. Yeah, I've just got a question on the $56 million of your debt classified as current. Is that just an indication of how you expect availability under your RBL to change in the next 12 months? And are you assuming any of it is needing to be repaid at the next redetermination in September?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

All right, I'll pass the over to Neil.

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

The 56 is really a forecasting artifact based on the borrowing-based model that was approved in March. We will go through another exercise here in September to pre-forecast that based on where prices are now and where the production profile ends up going, but seeing as Prices have broadly improved since we went through the last redetermination. The major issue or the issue that we will eventually encounter is sort of a loan life issue. And how we plan to address that is in the normal course of business every few years, we will extend the time period on the RBL. Okay. Yeah, I think there is, you know, we will plan to do that at some point, probably next year.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Okay, thank you.

speaker
James Carmichael
Analyst, Berenberg

Yes, thank you.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Great, thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please receive your questions.

speaker
Emily Chang
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, guys. This is Emily Chang on behalf of Neil. My first question is just around capital spend for next year. I know you mentioned probably it'll be fairly consistent with what you're seeing this year, but perhaps in the case that we don't see a sell-down in Tortue by year-end, maybe could you provide some color around what perhaps the capital layout might have to be? In other words, what's the work program ahead for the next couple of years for that project?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yes, Emily, if you sort of step back, we've talked around the fact that we've got a low level of maintenance capex going into the business. So we think it's around that sort of $200 million mark, sort of around where we've spoken about. We sort of underpinned the cash flow break even at 35. We've got then pre-cash flow generation, The objective of that is to ensure that we have the ability to pay down debt, as Neil's talked about, and pursue what we believe is a very promising high return, fast payback set of opportunities, in particular in the Gulf of Mexico. And again, as we've said on the call, our objective is that we have a self-funded gas business. We'll do that. through the sell-down process or we'll do that through financing. You know, we've already been around the fact we have the potential to do that from an RBL or a project finance perspective. In terms of the frontier wells, our objective is to ensure that is a self-funded program going forward. So I think that, you know, we're clear about where the CapEx level needs to be to sustain the business. We're clear about what we'll do with the additional cash flow. And our objective is to use that to kick off the ILX program and the Gulf of Mexico, where we see a really good set of opportunities.

speaker
Emily Chang
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. Thanks. And then my follow-up is just around the hedging program for 2021. How are you guys thinking about, you know, in terms of protecting the business from macro volatility there.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Okay, great. I'll let Neil pick that one up.

speaker
Neil Shah
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, Emily, in terms of what we plan to do for 21 on the hedging program, it will be broadly consistent with what we've done in the past. So continue to layer in hedges on a regular quarterly basis. And the floors will sort of move around based on what we can achieve. But we're trying to provide the downside security knowing that that there's going to be volatility, so continue to enter into that program, but keep as much access to the upside as possible. And so we have about 35% of our production hedged at the moment, and the goal will be over the second half of the year to get that to around two-thirds. And so we're about adding about a million barrels a month, largely in collars, but... may include some swaps at some point as well.

speaker
Emily Chang
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Pavel Mohav with Raymond James.

speaker
Pavel Mohav
Analyst, Raymond James

Thanks for taking the question. Can I ask kind of a little conceptually, what are the measures you guys are taking at your offshore platforms? to prevent a COVID outbreak? If you can just kind of paint a visual picture for us of how operations have changed versus, you know, 100 days ago, 120 days ago.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, sure, Pablo. I think that, again, you know, if you look at our offshore operations, you know, we're not drilling currently, so therefore it is the sort of non-operated world, yeah? What has the operator done in both Ghana and Equatorial Guinea? They've used a very strict quarantining process. So, you know, basically the way that the quarantine works is person's tested before they come in, quarantined for two weeks, retested on exit, then go offshore. So, you know, a very comprehensive process. You know, has it been flawless? Sort of no. There was a breakdown in the protocol in Ghana, which led to some cases on the construction support vessel. It was isolated quickly, contained. We know where the issue was, how it broke down, and I think the process is actually stronger as a result. In Ecuador or Guinea, there was a case offshore. And actually, it was because one of the government inspectors, actually, who wasn't following the same routine, went offshore. That's now been corrected by the government. So what I'd say is, you know, interesting question. It's sort of like, if you're like 100 days in, we've learned a lot about how you do this and how you sustain it. So that, you know, is this good for the future? Absolutely. And I think that by bringing the rigor and discipline to it, you've managed a situation whereby, you know, there hasn't been an impact to production. and we've learned as we've gone along. So I actually feel quite positive now around our ability to continue to execute our business with these measures in place.

speaker
Pavel Mohav
Analyst, Raymond James

And one more about the sell-down. Obviously, you're not giving any timetables, and rightly so, but is it fair to say that under current conditions, your focus is on getting it done at the right multiple levels, rather than getting it done quickly for the sake of getting it done quickly. So timing is less important than the outcome.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, look, great question, Pablo. Again, it's a balance, okay? We're not being sort of romantic about the price expectations. I think the world's moving at the moment. Deals are getting done, and they're getting done at credible prices. So I think we've clearly got options as well. Do you pursue the financing route that Neil's talked about? There's competitive tension there between the sell-down process. And we do need to get it done. So I think it's a balance between the two. All I want to reinforce is that we don't have crazy price expectations. We're realistic, but equally well, we want to ensure that we get to the point where we do have the ability to continue to execute the business because we've got it to a point where it is self-funded. So I think it's just a combination of pulling all of that together and making sure that we make the right choice and we have options. So I think that's the fundamental balance we're trying to get right.

speaker
Neil

I appreciate it.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Great.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thanks, Pavel. The next question is from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. Pleased to see you with your questions.

speaker
Bob Brackett
Analyst, Bernstein Research

Great. Thank you. We saw recently a combination of a large integrated company and a successful LNG explorer. What's your appetite for a similar type merger or agreement?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Yeah, interesting, Bob. Look, you know, I'd say the world is – the world is moving forward yeah um i think we are seeing um more asset deals and we're also seeing more uh more corporate deals so i think is that a surprise but not really um it's what you would expect um so i i do believe that that um that restructuring of the uh of the sector is is ongoing and quote will continue almost sort of irrespective of price actually and in good assets fundamentally will be uh coveted so you know ultimately it it is about creating value for our uh our shareholders so um you know i i i think that we've got Absolutely the ability to execute on our current business plans. We have a great organic portfolio and we have the ability to grow the cash flow from the business. And ultimately, that's our first order of priority is to make sure that we have a business looking forward into 2021, which is cash flow generative. and can continue to access and execute on a very strong organic portfolio. So that's where our focus is. But, you know, clearly, you know, the industry around us is throwing up opportunities, and we want to make sure that we can participate in them. Great.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Appreciate that.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Great. Thanks, Bob.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from the line of Al Stanton with RBC Capital Markets. Please just use your questions.

speaker
Al Stanton
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yes. Good morning, folks. Neil's been asked most of the questions I was going to ask him. So just two random ones, then, if I may. We still talk about a sell-down in Senegal and Mauritania, but I hear what you're saying, Andy, about deals being done and prices. So when will we start calling it a disposal rather than a sell-down?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

Well, I think whichever words you want to use, Al, I'm open to. I think, you know, the real point about this is how do we create value for our shareholders? Yeah, we've done well so far with our Mauritania-Senegal process. You know, we were 100%. We brought BP in. We got a project moving. It'll be the fastest project from discovery to first production, even despite the years in direct them that we've suffered. So we've got a great resource base there and we've managed to monetize it, I believe, in a very credible way. And I think that's the word that I would like to use is we're monetizing it and ensuring that we're creating value as a result. And that's what we've done so far and that's what we'll continue to do.

speaker
Al Stanton
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, and then just changing tack but sticking with consolidation, I probably missed it, I'm sorry, but was there a decision on the shareship consolidation?

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

No, it's open. So, you know, we're clearly, you know, we're trading in the right zone at the moment. And so, you know, we have the approval at the AGM to do it and the board will consider it going forward.

speaker
Al Stanton
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

All right, okay. It's not a, fair enough, I understand. Perfect, thank you.

speaker
Andy Ingalls
Chairman and CEO

All right. Thanks, Alan.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Since there are no further questions at this time, I would like to bring the call to a close. Thanks to everyone joining today. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

Disclaimer

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