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Kosmos Energy Ltd.
5/9/2023
Good day, everyone. Welcome to Cosmos Energy's first quarter 2023 conference call. Just a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, let me turn the call over to Jamie Buckman, Vice President of Investor Relations at Cosmos Energy.
Thank you, Operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, we issued our first quarter earnings release. This release and the slide presentation to accompany today's call are available on the Investors page of our website. Joining me on the call today to go through the materials are Andy Ingalls, Chairman and CEO, and Neil Shah, CFO. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note in this presentation and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement, and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website. At this time, I will turn the call over to Andy.
Thanks, Jamie, and good morning and afternoon to everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our first quarter results call. I'm going to run through the progress we've made during the quarter before handing over to Neil to take you through the financials. We'll then open up the call for questions. Starting on slide three, it's been just over two months since our fourth quarter earnings call, which brings us closer to the anticipated mid-year pre-cash flow inflection point we talked about at our year-end results. Over that period, we made steady progress on advancing our strategic agenda, and one cue was another quarter of solid delivery. On production, we averaged approximately 59,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net during the quarter, in line with guidance. We expect production to rise in the third and fourth quarters as new wells come online primarily at Jubilee. Our development project, which we expect to collectively increase the company's production by around 50% from now to 2024, continue to make good progress. On Jubilee Southeast, we are targeting first oil next month. On Tortue Phase 1, we're targeting first gas at the end of the fourth quarter. And on Winterfell, we're targeting first oil at the end of the first quarter next year. While we're focused on the delivery of these near-term development projects, we're also progressing our future growth pipeline beyond that. We plan to drill the Tiberias Infrastructure Lead Exploration, or ILX, well in the Gulf of Mexico next quarter. We're making progress on the second phase of TORCHU with our partners in Mauritania and Senegal. The LNG concept has been selected and the project is moving into pre-feed. Elsewhere in Mauritania and Senegal, we're continuing to optimize the development concept for the Borrella and Yacaturanga discoveries to advance our next gas development. Turning to slide four, this slide looks at operations across our three production hubs during the quarter and highlights the upcoming activity steps. As I said, net production of around 59,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day was consistent with 1Q guidance, and full-year guidance remains unchanged at 65,000, 69,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net. In Ghana, Jubilee gross oil production averaged around 72,000 barrels per day, down from the fourth quarter due to reduced water injection, primarily to manage reservoir pressure during Jubilee southeast drilling. Production is now stable since we re-established normal water injection levels in February. Five wells in total, comprising four producers and one injector, are expected to online from the end of the second quarter through the end of the third quarter. These wells should drive a material increase in Jubilee production over the coming month. I'll talk about that in more detail on the next slide. At 10, gross oil production averaged just over 20,000 barrels per day. During the second quarter, the operator submitted to the Ministry of Energy the draft plan of development for a high-graded activity set of additional wells at 10. The plan includes a combined associated gas sales agreement which covers all future gas sales for both Jubilee and TEN fields. This activity set aims to maintain TEN oil production around current levels whilst increasing gas exports. Securing additional domestic gas is a priority for the government, and we look forward to advancing this proposed oil and gas development at TEN. Moving to Equestrial Guinea, gross oil production averaged just over 27,000 barrels per day during the quarter, in line with expectations. The three-well infill drilling campaign is expected to begin in the fourth quarter, with the first well online around the end of the year. The Aking D-Biolex well is planned for the end of the first quarter next year, on the back of the infill drilling campaign. Lastly, in the Gulf of Mexico, net production was approximately 16,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with guidance. On Kodiak, we've contracted the vessel for the work over at the Kodiak 3 well, with work expected to start in the fourth quarter. The odd job subsea pump project continues to make good progress and is expected online in mid-2024 as planned. As I mentioned on the previous slide, we're on track to spud the Tiberius ILX well next quarter, which is a high-graded prospect within the outer Wilcox trend. And on Winterfell, additional long-lead items have been ordered. The export and host platform agreements are expected to be executed around mid-year. Drillings on track to commence in 3Q with first oil targeted at the end of the first quarter next year. Also in the latest Gulf of Mexico lease sale, Cosmos, in a joint bid with a Winterfell operator, was the apparent high bidder on a neighboring block to Winterfell, which could grow the resource from this hub beyond the two phases currently planned. Turning to slide five, which provides more detail on Jubilee, which is expected to drive our near-term production growth this year. Now, fall year results in late February talked about the significant upside potential of Jubilee over the coming years. This is a big field that continues to get bigger, with an estimated resource of over 2 billion barrels in place, and over a billion barrels equivalent expected to be recoverable. Less than 40% of these recoverable barrels have been produced since the field came online in late 2010, which creates the opportunity to extend the plateau of this high-margin production. Over the year, we expect to see production growth coming from both the main field and through the new Jubilee Southeast infrastructure as additional wells are brought online. In the main field, the partnership is planning to add two producer wells and one water injection well this year, with the first producer expected online shortly. The other producer and injector should be online during the third quarter. On Jubilee's southeast, first production is expected to start up in June. Two producer wells and one injector well have been drilled, with the producers anticipated online in late 2Q and early 3Q, respectively, with the water injector coming online in early 2024. The chart on the right shows the expected impact of the new wells coming on stream, with gross production expected to rise over 50%, from the first quarter to more than 110,000 barrels of oil per day in the fourth quarter. With over 30 identified development drilling opportunities, the partnership is aiming to maintain gross production above 100,000 barrels of oil per day through the end of the decade. Following the oxytransaction in late 2021, Cosmos increased its stake in Jubilee from 24% to around 39%. The investment has already paid back in 14 months. Looking ahead, the real benefit of this transaction is yet to come as we work to increase production and maintain the plateau. On the chart on the right, we've also flagged the likely timing of cargo listings from Jubilee, which Neil will talk about shortly. Due to the ramp-up through the third quarter, the Jubilee cargo listing schedule is heavily weighted towards the second half of the year, with only two Jubilee cargos expected in the second quarter. In summary, it's an exciting time for our core assets at Jubilee. Initial production from the new wells is the first major step of the anticipated production and cash flow inflection point. Turn to slide six, which shows the first phase of the Torchy project with good progress across the four key work streams during the quarter. Firstly, the subsea. The wells have been drilled, completed, and flowed back ready for production. The Amazon vessel is now laying the deepwater pipeline, which will then be followed by the infield flow lines and installation of the subsea structure. Timely execution of this subsea work scope is now the critical path to the first gap by the end of the year. Pre-commissioning work on the FPSO advanced during its scheduled stop in Singapore. The vessel is expected to arrive on location around the end of the second quarter. Construction of the hub terminal is now complete with handover to operations expected at the end of this quarter. And finally, construction and mechanical completion of the floating LNG vessel is finishing and commissioning work is now underway. Sail away from the shipyard is expected mid-year. At this point, the operator is focused on the integration of these key work streams and managing the critical path through the subsea to enable first gas by year end. Turning to slide 7, which looks at the future gas and LNG growth potential we have across the portfolio. While the team is fully focused on the delivery of Tortue Phase 1 this year, we have also progressed the next phase of gas development. Across the Mauritania-Senegal Basin, the partnership has discovered and de-risked around 80 PCF in place of an advantage gas resource across our acreage. This equates to around 15 TCF of recoverable gas net to COSMOS, or over 2 billion barrels oil equivalent, over four times our current 2P reserve base. Recent transactions seen across the sector have highlighted the value of strategic world-scale gas assets. Our deep resource base across Tortue, Varela, and Yakuturanga is a real differentiator for the company, a portfolio that we believe is truly unique across independent E&P companies. As you may have seen in a press release in late April, we recently strengthened the company's board of directors. Our new directors bring valuable international operations and LNG experience to the company as we execute on our strategic goals and maximize the value of our gas resources. looking specifically at future growth opportunities on the slide. At Torture Phase 2, we recently announced the gravity-based structure development concept, which was a key step to advancing the project into free feed. At Borrella, following the new PSC agreed with the government of Mauritania late last year, we're working with partners on project optimization and concept collections. And finally, at Yaka Turanga, we're progressing the domestic gas scheme with our partners and the government of Senegal with LNG export potential thereafter. In summary, we continue to advance our differentiated opportunity set across Mauritania and Senegal, progressing multiple options that we can high-grade deliver future gas and LNG growth across the basin. That concludes the portfolio review. I'll now hand over to Neil to talk about the financial highlights of the quarter.
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