Dorian LPG Ltd.

Good morning and welcome to the Dorian LPG third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would like to now turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us for our third quarter 2024 results conference call. With me today are John Hajibateris, Chairman, President, and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited, John Lucouris, Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG USA, and Tim Hanson, Chief Commercial Officer. As a reminder, This conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through February 8, 2024. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe, or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we expressed today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended December 31, 2023 that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our filings on Form 10-K, where you'll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Finally, please also refer to the investor highlights slides posted this morning on our website, to which we will refer during the call. With that, I'll turn over the call to John Haji-Bateras.

Thank you. And thank you for joining us, John, of course, Ted, Tim, and me to discuss our third quarter financial 2024 results. As you will hear in more detail from Ted, in the financial years to date, we earned record average TCE, record spot TCE, and record EBITDA. While maintaining a strong balance sheet and capital to invest in our segment and in our decarbonization initiatives, we continue to return capital to our shareholders, including our recently declared dollar For share dividend, we will have returned over $690 million to shareholders since our IPO. As one of the largest share operators in our segment, we believe we are well positioned to continue our profitable performance in the LPG sector and beyond. More than 40 shares were absorbed into the fleet in 2023, a 12% addition. This was the largest number of ships delivered in a single year since the delivery in 2016 of 46 ships, which represented 23% of the then existing fleet. Of the 17 new buildings slated for delivery in 2024, four have already started trading. We view the market volatility of 2023 and particularly the big rate spikes as evidence of demand and supply being close to equilibrium. The recent near total elimination of waiting times for the canal, which is still draft restricted, is not sustainable. The Canal Authority is prioritizing container ships and LNG ships over LPG. There are 109 NEO Panamax container ships and 73 LNG ships slated for delivery this year. For these reasons, as well as the power reduction resulting in slower speeds, which didn't happen last year, we are optimistic. On the HR side, we continue to invest in improving the quality of life of our displaced Ukrainian seafarers and their families. We recently introduced a simplified payment system through an e-wallet that enables them to receive their monthly allowments quickly and with less hassle. On the social front, we will enter our Cheyenne in a pilot program through the All Aboard Alliance, a global maritime forum-sponsored initiative, which will enable accelerated data collection regarding diversity and increase opportunities for all genders at sea. We are evaluating compelling emission-saving devices and low-friction paints for our ships. During Q3, we painted one of our dry dock ships with silicone paint and have signed new contracts for energy-saving devices that will be retrofitted in the coming year. We also continue our real-time emission monitoring program and have enhanced the initiative by installing MAN's EcoTorque engine diagnostics tool on 20 of our own chips. We have expanded our performance team in Denmark by adding a mechanical engineer. We ordered a new building, VLGC, VLAC, from Hanwha Shipyard in Korea for delivery in 2026, and are investigating opportunities to upgrade some of our existing ships to carry ammonia. John Licorice will speak further on this topic. Ted, your floor.

Thank you, John. My comments this morning will focus on our financial position and liquidity, our unaudited third quarter results, and our capital allocation decisions. At December 31, 2023, we reported $208.5 million of free cash, which represented a very solid increase from the $192 million reported at the end of September. The $208.5 million is, of course, reported after the payment of the $40 million dividend that was declared and paid during the December quarter. As of January 31, we had an unrestricted cash balance of $215 million which is net of the $23.8 million down payment made on our BLGCAC new building during January, 2024. We do not consolidate the P&L or balance sheet accounts of the Helios pool, which has the effect of understating our reported cash. As of January 31st, 2023, the pool held cash of 36.2 million. And since we have a roughly 86% economic interest in the pool, It equates to cash of approximately $31 million, which is not otherwise reported on our balance sheet. With a debt balance of quarter end of $623.8 million, our debt to total book capitalization is set at 38.8% and net debt to total book capitalization at 25.8%. As we have previously reported, our banks agreed to increase our revolving credit facility from $20 million to $50 million, and to add a $100 million accordion line for vessel acquisitions to the facility. We are grateful for their support and for their endorsement of our stewardship of their capital. We've begun to evaluate various pre- and post-delivery financing options for our VLGCAC with an aim of maintaining our low debt costs and high level of financial flexibility. Looking forward, we expect our cash costs per day for the coming year to be in the range of $25,000 to $26,000 per day, excluding capital expenditures for dry docking and potentially upgrades for ammonia capability in our existing fleet, which John will discuss later. For the discussion of our third quarter results, you also may find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. I would also remind you that my remarks will include a number of terms such as TCE, operating days, available days, and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to our filings for the definitions of these terms. For our third quarter chartering results, we achieved a TCE of $76,337 per operating day with a total utilization of 93.6%, yielding utilization adjusted TCE of about $71,431. This TCE result represents the best in the company's history. As our entire spot trading program is conducted through the Helios pool, the spot results for Helios are the best measure of our spot chartering performance. For the December 31st quarter, the Helios pool earned a spot TCE of $91,417 per day, which is the highest spot rate the pool has ever earned for a quarter. On page four of the investor highlights material, you can see that we have five Dorian vessels on time chartered within the pool, plus one MOL Energia vessel indicating spot exposure of about 75 to 80% for the 27 vessels in the Helios pool. Turning to the quarter ending March 31, 2024, we currently have over 60% of the available days in the Helios pool booked at a time charter equivalent in excess of $100,000 per day, reflecting the very strong rates booked earlier for voyages that will be carried out this calendar quarter. Please note that that rate includes both spot fixtures and time charters. Our OPEX per calendar day, excluding dry docking costs, was $9,909, which was down somewhat sequentially from the prior quarter. Reductions in lubricants and spares in stores drove the decline. Our time charter in expense for the four time charter in vessels came in at $8.4 million. which is lower than budgeted due to some fuel efficiency under performance claims. Total G&A for the quarter was $7.7 million, and cash G&A, that is G&A excluding non-cash compensation expense, was about $6.3 million. Of that $6.3 million, about $500,000 included aid to our Ukrainian seafarers and some employee bonuses. Thus, our core G&A came in at roughly $5.8 million, which is consistent with our expectations. Non-cash compensation expense for the quarter was $1.4 million, which is consistent with the guidance that we gave last quarter. Our reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $133 million, which is the best quarterly adjusted EBITDA in our corporate history. Our adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months is nearly $415 million. Turning to debt service, our cash interest expense, which we calculated as the sum of the line items, interest expense, excluding deferred financing fees and other loan expenses, and realized gain loss on interest rate swap derivatives for the quarter was $7.5 million, a decline of about $200,000 from the prior quarter, reflecting lower average debt and our all-in cost of debt of about 4.7%, which I would note is below current floating SOFA rates. Quarterly principal amortization remained steady at $13.3 million. Our trailing 12-month net income is about $304 million, And with average book shareholders of equity for the same 12-month period of roughly $911 million, we generated a 33.4% return on shareholders' equity. We are proud of this result because it not only reflects the strong profitability that our platform can generate, it also shows that we've managed to keep our shareholders' equity at an appropriate level, balancing retention of capital while still paying out meaningful dividends to our shareholders. The $1 per share dividend declared last week and payable on February 27th to shareholders of record February 5th, 2024 brings our total dividends paid to $11.50 per share or nearly $465 million in aggregate.

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. We're experiencing technical difficulties and our conference will begin momentarily.

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please remain on the line. Your teleconference will resume momentarily. Thank you. Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen.

Ted, please continue.

Thanks, Rob. Again, we're positive on the long-term prospects of our business, but we are mindful of the near-term headwinds. With that, I'll pass it over to Tim Hansen.

Yeah, good day, everyone, and thanks for inviting me. As always, the VLTC market created some interesting times for the participants. as a record-setting strength of December, contrasted sharply with the market during January 2024. The quarter ending December 31st in 23 saw record-breaking high freight levels for VLDCs. The primary drivers of the firm freight market were the widening U.S. to Asia arbitrage, several new restrictions applying to the Panama Canal, and subsequent vessel routing decisions amidst the uncertainty about the Panama and the Suez Canal transits. Turning first to the arbitrage in North America, production of natural gas liquids continued to increase inventories to record levels. This was amidst an unseasonably warm start to the winter. The increased supply of LPG lowered the U.S. export prices, offsetting some of the short-term concerns about Asia import demand, as the latter was also experiencing. a warm winter. The effect of the drought in Panama has been widely discussed. The Panama Canal introduced new restrictions on VLDC transits at the end of October. A severe reduction of water level necessitated a reduction in daily transits, with the cost of booking transits of VLDCs becoming more expensive. By the first week of November, auctions for new Panama Canal transits reached a peak of just under $4 million. and some operators faced the real possibility of not being able to secure a northbound transit. VLCs were opting for alternative routes, some turning around mid-Pacific to avoid uncertainty of the Panama Canal, and a few opting to ballast around South America, resulting in increased ton miles, as well as impacting lead time for owners and charters in estimating arrival in the U.S. Gulf for loading. The scheduling impact was eventually prized into the freight levels and lay currents were fixed almost two months forward of the fixing window. The uncertainties about scheduling and the cost impact applied for vessels in both ballast and in laden, with charters facing potentially restrictive high auction prices at the Panama Canal or choosing the longer laden passage via the Suez Canal. On average, the quarter ending December 23 averaged 25 VLTCs ballasting to the U.S. Gulf via Suez per month. This compared to an average of 13 VLTCs per month on the quarter prior. The Suez Canal routing was preferred for vessels in ballast and laden to such a degree that in December, the Baltic Index saw few rates fixed under the agreed index of Houston cheaper via Panama with the bulk of fixtures being reported on a Houston cheaper via sewers rate. The shift in pricing norms made assessment of the market more difficult, but testifies to the significant shift in trading routes for the VMDCs over the period. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East made the routing via sewers a short-lived solution. When drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea escalated during December, operators began to decline the Red Sea route on grounds of safety, and VLTCs were pushed towards routing via the Cape of Good Hope. For the first time in several years, more than 10 VLTCs ballasted via the Cape of Good Hope in one month. As a result, the added 10 miles supported the freight market in the short term. Now, reflecting on how conditions can change, at the beginning of January, several factors increased the fleet lengths. Forecast of a cold snap in January in the U.S. created an anticipation of a sudden increase in domestic LPG consumption, which began to be priced into the product market and reducing the West to East arbitrage, one of the key drivers. Also, the Far East index prices were on the decline amidst Asian importers anticipating reduced import demand due to lower demand for heating. Therefore, the arbitrage started to narrow, impacting the normal arbitrage economics. During January, six new buildings, or 29% of the expected deliveries in 2024, were delivered, creating a sudden increase in investment supply for the first calendar quarter of 2024. Congestion in the Panama Canal declined significantly and rapidly this month. Contributing factors include the rerouting of ELTCs via CAVE, lighter container vessel traffic and increased rainfall in the Panama Canal. Initially, this unfortunately will create a temporal oversupply in both the U.S. Gulf and Far East ports, putting pressure on the rates as we've seen during this quarter, which should normalize as vessel supply is absorbed. Our freight market can be volatile and is subject to a wide range of factors that may influence short-term freight rates. we also have a number of strong cyclical and peculiar factors in our favor a warmer spring climate in north america will contribute to more lpg supply at more favorable prices the anticipation going forward is therefore more widening uh east the west to east up we expect Only 15 remaining new buildings to deliver this year. Compared to the 42 that were successfully absorbed last year, we expect the new buildings deliveries to be absorbed based on the forecasted increase in exports. We continue to see LPG take market share from other fuel sources. And in 2024, significant growth in propane dehydration and steam cracking plants are expected, particularly in Asia. The Panama Canal congestion issues are far from solved. The daily transit numbers are still 10 transits less per day than in July 23, and it's only expected to revert to the normal levels during the summer. Rerouting of VLTCs and other segments back towards the Panama Canal will again increase the congestion, and in addition to the VLTC new buildings, there's expected delivery of 73 LNG and 109 new Panamax container ships in 2024. This will increase the demand for passage of the canal and we thus expect congestion to return and to be the norm rather than the exception in the canal. Routing via sewers and cave from via DCs thus is expected to become more pronounced in 2024 due to the uncertainties of forecasting the Panama Canal transit and costs. Thus, we do remain positive on the medium to long-term prospects for our business while acknowledging that short-term volatility is ever-present. With that, I'll pass you over to Mr. John DeCourish.

Thank you very much, Tim.

At Dorian LPG, we firmly believe that we should be part of and provide long-term solutions to the world's decarbonization objectives and goals. Our investment in scrappers continues to derive strong returns. Our average daily net savings over the quarter on our scrubber vessels stood at about $3,000 per day, or about $3.4 million for the quarter. Fuel differentials between high sulfur fuel oil and low sulfur fuel oil averaged about $202 in the last quarter of 2023. The pricing differential of the LPG as fuel versus fuel fuel oil, low sulfur fuel oil stood at about $183 per metric ton, which was helpful to fuel fuel engine vessels when operating with LPG. We now have a total of 14 scrubber fitted vessels and one charted in vessel. And we plan to retrofit another vessel with a scrubber unit in the second quarter of 2024. The installations of energy saving devices and the silicon hull coatings to our vessels have provided significant performance improvements in fuel savings, reduction of the fleet's CO2 emissions, and improved CII ratings. Besides our vessel Captain John NP, which was originally built as a VLGC, VLAC, as they are now called, we are upgrading some of our vessels to carry ammonia, as it is quite feasible for a good portion of the world fleet to carry out such upgrades. The EU emissions trading system that came into effect in January 1st, 2024 is applicable to all ships calling at EU ports. Shipping companies will surrender their year 2024 EU allowances latest by September 2025, and every year thereafter, and it will reflect the CO2 emissions while their vessels were trading in EU waters. In line with end-user pays principle, the cost of complying with the EU ETS is passed by the owner to the time charterer, who is ultimately responsible for the purchase and transfer of the monthly EU allowances to the owner's account. For spot voyages, we expect the EU allowances to be added to the freight invoice in line with the end-user space rule. In continuation of Dorian's commitment to sustainability and improving the company greenhouse gas profile, we have recently invested into companies to seek solutions to climate issues from carbon and methane emissions. IONADA is planning to market a compact modular carbon capture system for small and mid-sized carbon emitters that will be applicable to many industries, including marine applications. The patented technology claims 30% better efficiency than conventional carbon capture technologies as it works with a large array of hollow fiber contactor membranes of absorbent solution, achieving about 90% capture of carbon dioxide in post-combustion flue gases. The second is Envolon, which focuses on the avoidance of methane gas emissions from wasted resources, such as landfill gas, biogas, and waste biomass. These emissions, instead of being vented or burned on site, are converted into high-value carbon negative and carbon neutral fuels like bio-LNG, bio-LPG, green methanol, and green ammonia. The modular and scalable technology can be situated at methane emission sites where it can be transformed into high-quality thin gas and after treatment consolidated and delivered to the energy, marine, and aviation industries. Finally, Our recent new building contract to build a new VLGC VLAC at Hanwha Ocean Yard in South Korea is in line with our commitment to employ capital where we see commercial and financial opportunities for investment. We believe that the future green hydrogen economy will largely depend on large quantities of ammonia applying the seas on dedicated vessels. Besides earning good economic returns on such trades, We also firmly believe that we should be part of and provide long-term solutions to the world's decarbonization objectives and goals. And now, I would like to pass it over to John Hedipatera for the closing comments.

Thank you very much, John. We're happy to take questions from anyone who cares to ask them, please.

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question will be coming from the line of Omar Nocta with Jefferies. Pleased to see you with your questions.

Thank you.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Congrats, obviously, on a very strong and, I guess, record quarter. And, Ted, I just wanted to ask if you could repeat maybe the guidance figure you mentioned for the bookings to date. Did you say it was $100,000 for 60% of the quarter?

Yeah, that's correct, Omar. In excess of $100,000 and in excess of 60% of the days. Okay.

And that includes the TCs?

That includes the pool TCs.

Okay. All right. Thank you. And then just wanted to ask maybe, and I know, Tim, you touched on this, but obviously, you know, last year was a very, very strong year for BLGC. You had the big jump in USF sports. You had the Panama Canal, which really all of that offset the new building. And as you mentioned, the fleet was fully absorbed in. You know, So far, things have corrected over the past few weeks and perhaps look to have maybe overshot to the downside, and especially in relation to where, say, the low point was at this time last year. What do you see as driving the pullback in rates, and when can we start to expect things to turn around?

Tim. Yeah. You asked Tim, so I let Tim out. We have the same answer anyway. Yes, yes.

Yeah. So, I mean, you're right. We have a lower point now than the drop of last year. And we're kind of seeing these drops always in the first quarter at some point. But this year it was very... quick and dramatic, but also coming from an exceptionally high point. So you can say the stars was aligned in one direction and now they are in the other direction. I think that what we see is both an overreaction and as I mentioned in the end, I think we will see U.S. inventory is still very, very high. So even with a cold winter would not create the same worries that you have seen before of the U.S. running out of gas. So I think the pricing will align again quickly as soon as the worst cold is over. And also one of the other factors is the Panama Canal, which we see every year that after the festive season in the U.S., the number of transits decline, especially for the container business, that they are less busy passing in January and up to the Chinese holiday. So we see also that situation as a temporarily blip, and we think that it will return to being congestions being the norm rather than the exceptions in there. as John mentioned, more new buildings on LNG and containers. So we see this coming, and we still see the transits are still way lower than it was last year, the number of transits available. And if you think that the new canal today only takes around seven a day transit, so if you add 100 and more, 170-some ships, almost 200 ships more that can use the canal next year. And many of them, that is the main trade route. And we see these congestions coming back. So I think to your question, when will we see a return? We think... Pretty soon within this quarter, we will see this aligned because I think it's been overshot on the downward side. So we do see these things correcting themselves. But we're coming into the holidays in China soon. So that always put a little bit of a damper on the market. And also there are some cargoes on shoulder in the water also. Iranian tons, that seems to be a problem to clear. So it could take a little while before we see the bounce back. But still, within this quarter, we do expect this to crack up.

Thanks, Tim. Thanks. Thanks. I would just add that we can never really tell which quarter it's going to happen. We can give you what we think is guidance over an average for the rest of the year or whatever, but Hopefully, the market will react.

And the question is, when it bounces, how well it bounces. So, as I said, I think before, when the market starts falling, it kind of forgets where to stop. So, I think we're going to hit bottom quickly and then bounce back. Omar, there you go.

Maybe you've got more than you were looking for.

Yeah, no, that's very helpful. And that makes sense, John, what you just said. And obviously, Tim, very good color. Appreciate you kind of going into detail there. I did just a couple more for me, and I'll turn it over. Maybe just first, sorry, next question is just on the Red Sea. Clearly, it's been very, very topical and front and center, really, over the past few weeks. How would you size up the impact of what's going on in the Red Sea with the diversions How do you size up that impact on the VLGC trade, say, in comparison to what we've been seeing or had seen in the Panama Canal last year?

It's not so obvious, Omar, because the trade through the canal, through the Suez Canal, was almost kind of caused by the congestion in Panama. Also, So the Shores Canal itself, I'm not sure. The Red Sea trade, the main VLDC trade out of the Red Sea is out of Jordan. And in Jordan, sorry, not out of Jordan, out of Saudi Arabia, Yambu. And Jordan has absorbed some of the cargoes that would otherwise have gone east from Yambu. And that has displaced some cargoes that would have come from the States. So that is a negative on the ton mile. On the other hand, Saudi could divert the loading of the cargoes from Jordan to Rastanurah, which probably will happen. So that total number of ships coming out of the Red Sea was, I think, four to five a month out of Yambu, representing about 30% of the exports from Saudi Arabia. So because we're in a flux, I don't think it's easy to kind of... predict what the eventual impact of the hostilities in that region will be. Got it. I don't know.

Well, I appreciate you attempting to, or at least summarizing all that. That's helpful context as well. Thanks, John. And then maybe just a final one for me, just on the new building and just kind of thinking about John LaCruz, your comments about outfitting the existing fleet to carry ammonia. I guess just one question on that would be, you know, what does the cost look like to upgrade for ammonia? And then also, in terms of the new building, is there a price difference in ordering a VLAC versus a VLGC? And maybe just, I guess, multiple questions, but what's the difference between a VLAC and a VLGC, I guess, going forward?

Yeah, Omar, it is a cost that over a number of shifts is going to be quite low, but we have been looking into this for some years now, and we think that it is significantly less than $5 million and probably even lower than that when it is amortized over a number of ships. So it is something that is, let's say, it takes time, but it is not a significant cost to carry out those conversions.

Omar, we're mindful of that because as it applies to not all our ships, but some of our ships, it also applies to a good number of the world fleet. So people, we sort of get too carried away with new building dedicated ammonia carriers when a good part of the fleet, the existing fleet of VLGCs could be, you know, maybe less efficient than a new ship, but they could still carry ammonia with some modifications and upgrades.

Understood. Okay. Well, thank you. I appreciate the time. I'll turn it over.

Yeah.

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Oystein Wagen with Family Securities. Pleased to see you with your questions.

Hey guys, just a quick question from me. You know, as you just discussed, your rates have been quite high over the last couple of months and this winter are astonishingly high. But, you know, you booked 91,000 roughly on the spot and pool for the fourth quarter. But again, that's not really up at the highest as we saw spot rates go to 140. Now you're talking about 100k. which I guess makes sense as chip owners take some coverage on the way up. But my question is now, with spot rate indices now below cash break-even levels and close to OPEX, what kind of levels are you fixing at today? Does it work differently on the way down as well?

Well, I can say a couple of things.

First of all, just to be clear, um, you know, the, uh, results that we mentioned going forward, there's a measure of time charterships in there, which are, which are lower than the spot, the spot market rates that are booked in that forward number are, uh, they're very attractive. Um, and as for current fixing, um, like that's pretty commercially sensitive information. We, as a general matter, don't really, uh, comment on it, but, um, You know, Tim wants to give a little bit more. He may, but I'd say in general, when he's described his strategy to us, look, our guys have been proven to be pretty good at figuring out when cargoes are going to be available and how many ships are going to be available to meet the lake end and kind of flexing our planning around that. Tim, if you want to add anything to that, feel free or not.

Yeah, you can say that the drop was pretty quick. So only things that has been fixed was kind of like what was in the front. So as you say, you take a couple on the way down, but actually we had fixed pretty far forward already. So we didn't have much to fix in the fixing window when market dropped. So most of our positions comes only available more than a month ahead from now. So as the market has been dropping, then people doesn't fix that far ahead. So we're not really that much of a fixing window yet. So we'll see if it turns around before we get there. But yeah.

Thanks.

Okay. And just to add on, are you fixing window now in the market in general? Is that early March now or where are we now?

We may not. Sorry, but we don't want to go too much into this market mechanic.

It's commercially sensitive. Yeah, yeah.

Okay, understood. Thank you. Thank you.

Thanks, Christine.

Thank you. We've reached the end of the question and answer session. I'll now turn the call over to John Hadjipateris for closing remarks.

Thank you, Rob. Thank you for your questions, our two valuable questionnaires. And have a good quarter after February, and see you next time.

This will conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.