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Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to LP's second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To remove yourself from the queue, please press star 1-1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Aaron Howell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. You may begin.
Aaron Howell
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the second quarter of 2023 and our outlook for Q3 and the remainder of the year. My name is Aaron Howell, and I am LP's Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. Joining me this morning are Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer, and Alan Hockey, LP's Chief Financial Officer. During this morning's call, we will refer to an accompanying presentation that is available on LP's IR webpage, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing is also available there, along with our earnings press release and other materials detailing LP's strategy and sustainable business model. Today's discussion will contain certain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics, as described on slides two and three of the earnings presentation. I will incorporate those slides by reference rather than reading them. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. And with that, I will turn the call over to Brad. Thanks, Aaron. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us.
Aaron Howell
I'll briefly describe LP's results for the quarter before I turn my attention to the future and discuss LP's strategy of growth, innovation, and efficiency and how it positions us exceptionally well to benefit not only from the ongoing rebound and new construction, but also from the improvement in repair and remodeling that we expect will eventually follow. The second quarter ended with encouraging signs of an improving housing market. While single-family starts are down 21% for the first half of the year compared to 2022, May and June saw stronger-than-expected building activity. As housing stocks have rebounded, demand for LP's oriented strand board has followed, pushing prices meaningfully higher and improving LP's EBITDA and cash flow outlook. By contrast, the repair and remodeling market appears to be comparatively weak and softening, likely due, at least in part, to constrained home inventory and reduced home sales. Existing home sales, which in a typical year outnumber stocks by four or five to one, are down 23% for the first half of the year, and vacancy rates and active listing counts suggest that trend will persist. The shed market, where LP has a dominant share of exterior siding panels, closely follows existing home sales and has been similarly weaker so far in 2023. Against this backdrop, LP generated $611 million in net sales, $93 million in EBITDA, $88 million in operating cash flow, and $0.55 in adjusted diluted earnings per share. While our EBITDA performance exceeded guidance from the prior quarter, siting revenue was lower than expected, with sheds the softest component of the siting business in the quarter. Overall siting volume dropped 16% versus prior year quarter, roughly equal to the drop in single family starts for the quarter. Partially offsetting this, siding prices were 6% higher than prior year, with the result that net sales were 11% below prior year. On slide six, you can see that while single-family startups dropped 22% on a trailing 12-month basis, siding volume was flat and siding prices were up 11%. Comparing the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2019 before the pandemic, Siding revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 14%. Over the same four-year period, single-family starts were essentially flat. The first half of this year is certainly softer compared to the COVID year when siding was on allocation, but siding growth consistently exceeds that of the underlying market. A bright spot for the quarter was expert-finished pre-finished siding, which saw flat volume in Q2 compared to prior year despite the general R&R slowdown. Our newest expert finished facility located in Bath, New York, will open in Q3, bringing increased automation and improved efficiency to LP's pre-finished siding production. To support ongoing product innovation, in the second quarter, LP opened our new Innovation Center at the Natural Resource Research Institute in collaboration with the University of Minnesota Duluth. The Innovation Center will accelerate our development of high-performance and sustainable building solutions. We're also happy to announce the introduction of two new additions to the siding product portfolio. The new products are brushed smooth expert finish lap and pebbled stucco panels. These new offerings retain smart size durability, efficiency of installation, and industry-leading sustainability, and will help us gain share in markets that prefer these aesthetic characteristics. For the OSB segment, the ongoing improvement in single-family new construction has led to increased demand for OSB, which has in turn led to higher prices. Given the two- to three-week OSB order file, the price increases in the last days of Q2 will mostly be reflected in Q3. But impressive operating efficiency and a sequentially higher structural solutions mix of 54% helped the OSB business contribute $37 million in EBITDA in Q2. Both businesses have done an impressive job so far this year operating efficiently despite lower capacity utilization as we manage our operating footprint with discipline. While the current market environment for repair and remodeling and siting may be softer than anticipated, our commitment to our strategy is unwavering. We will continue to grow through innovation, manage our capacity with discipline and efficiency, and preserve the strong balance sheet that lets us invest in our future. Our strategy is working. We will continue to invest in capacity to produce and deliver the best siding and structural solutions products in the industry. The acquisition of what will become our next siding mill in Wawa, Ontario is an example of this. We are pleased with the progress we have made integrating the Wawa team into LP's siding business. We are engaging with the local community and First Nations as we prepare to sustainably harvest the local aspen fiber. and we have begun the engineering work necessary to prepare Wawa to become a state-of-the-art siding mill so that we can meet growing customer demand. Our capital allocation strategy gives us the flexibility to adjust the timing of investments and growth to match customer demand, decoupled from the volatile cash flow generated from OSB price fluctuations. Before I turn the call over to Alan, I want to conclude by spending a moment talking about safety. which is a core value at LP. Our goal is zero injuries. While we will never be perfect, we work every day to continuously improve safety at LP. We were recently notified that LP won the 2022 Safest Company Award from APA, the Engineered Wood Association. This is the 11th time in 15 years that LP has earned this award. But safety is not about winning awards. It's about building a culture where we look out for ourselves and each other so we can all go home to our families safely every single day. I'm happy to say that LP's safety performance in Q2 has continued to build on our safety legacy. In the second quarter of 2023, LP's siding business had a single recordable injury. The rest of our North American employees, including the OSB business and all corporate functions, ended the quarter without a single recordable injury. That means LP team members in North America completed almost 2 million work hours with only one recordable injury. One is too many and we will learn from it and improve, but we are incredibly proud of this result. And I know that every employee shares my commitment to being the safest company in our industry. And with that, I will turn the call over to Alan for a more detailed review of the financial results before we take your questions.
Wawa
Thanks, Brett. The waterfall on page 7 of the earnings deck shows Siding's results for the second quarter compared to the prior year. The reduction in volume is the largest driver of both the year-over-year revenue decline and the revenue guidance miss. This 16% volume decline resulted in $54 million less revenue and $26 million less EBITDA given Siding's high variable margin. Price increases partly offset the volume decline, The combination of list price increases last July and this January lifted net prices by about 6%. Outside of volume and price, other factors in the quarter include continuing mill conversion costs. On our first quarter call, we identified $16 million of such costs embedded within EBITDA. As predicted, that cost has fallen to roughly $10 million this quarter as Cigola ramps up production. $5 million of this is identified on the waterfall, and a further $5 million is a repeat cost from last year. Same cost, different mill, and so does not pop as a variance, but it's there nonetheless. On the plus side, input prices have stabilized and in some cases already falling. Year over year, freight costs fell by $4 million, partially offsetting a $6 million headwind from raw material inflation. Thankfully, a much smaller impact than in recent quarters. The resulting EBITDA of $59 million at a margin of 18% would have been three points higher but for the mill conversion and ramp-up costs, which I must stress are entirely discretionary and incurred in the interest of long-term growth. The OSB waterfall on page eight is similar to those of previous quarters in that the price change dwarfs all other factors. And as in recent quarters, I will dispense with price and describe the remarkable performance delivered by the OSB team managing the business safely and efficiently in a challenging market environment. Commodity volume was down 12% year-over-year, with market curtailments and the removal of Segola partially offset by substantial improvements in operating efficiency. Structural solutions mix was up sequentially and year-over-year, accounting for 54% of second quarter volume. As in siding, raw material inflation plateaued and is receding for many input categories. Perhaps most impressive, the OSB business achieved a 5% reduction in cash cost of production compared to the second quarter of last year, despite volumes being nearly 20% lower. The $17 million benefit from lower cost of production, combined with $4 million in freight savings and the transfer of Segola overhead to the siding business, added $32 million of year-over-year EBITDA benefit in the quarter, more than offsetting all other non-price factors. This highlights the considerable value of our strategy of operating OSB efficiently while maximizing the incremental contribution from the structural solutions portfolio. Cash flow is shown on slide 9. As expected, it improved sharply in the second quarter with a net outflow of $56 million compared with a $257 million outflow in the first quarter. Clearly then, Absent the $80 million payment for the Wawa facility, cash flow would have been positive in the quarter, even with ongoing investments in Segola, Bath, and other maintenance and growth capital spending. In addition to spending $74 million on CapEx and acquiring Wawa, LP paid $17 million in dividends and paid $12 million in cash taxes. We ended the quarter with $30 million drawn on our revolver, leaving us with about $600 million of liquidity. Cash flow has continued to improve in recent weeks, in large part due to increased OSB prices, with the result that the revolver has now been fully paid down. LP's capital allocation strategy is unchanged, as is our commitment to it. We'll continue to earn cash, invest in growth, and return a significant portion of the remainder to investors via dividends and share buybacks, in that order. With Segola producing A-grade lap siding and Bath starting soon, the bulk of 2023's capex is behind us, so the rate of expenditure should be significantly lower in the back half of the year. As a reminder, LPE retains $200 million in board authorization for share repurchases, and as OSB prices and cash flows improve, so too does the probability of share buybacks. Now, it was rather a busy quarter regarding the reconciliations of net income to both EBITDA and adjusted net income, so let me spend a moment to describe three items that appear on slide 10 of the presentation covering, in this instance, the net income to EBITDA reconciliation. Reading top to bottom on the slide, the first item of note is the $21 million tax provision. We decided to repatriate $45 million of cash from LPSA in the second quarter. This means that we can obviously no longer assert that cash held in South America is permanently invested there. which triggers the obligation to book a tax entry to reflect the potential tax we would pay if and only if we choose to repatriate the remainder of LPSA's cash. That charge was about $22 million, $5 million of which relates to the $45 million actually repatriated, leaving $17 million of the $22 million charge as a non-cash entry. The next item on the list is a $17 million other operating charge, of which $60 million relates to the resolution and settlement of a patent dispute within the OSB business. And finally, you'll note $34 million in business exit charges in the quarter. This refers to Intecra, the exit of which was referenced on our first quarter earnings call and is mostly non-cash. Which brings us to guidance. I've already mentioned the near completion of 2023's major capital projects, so that's where I'll start. Remaining expenditures for the year should bring full-year capex to about $300 million, implying roughly $110 million of spending in the second half of the year, with a roughly 60-40 split between growth and sustaining maintenance. With reference to siding growth, in previous quarters, the long lead times resulting from our managed order file enabled greater near-term visibility and made quarterly revenue guidance both useful and meaningful. But the combined effects of moving off a managed order file and our increased focus on one-step distribution has resulted in a new normal order file of roughly two weeks. Now, while this makes us much more responsive to our customers, it also makes quarterly revenue less predictable. So we'll take a longer-term focus going forward. First, recall that the third and fourth quarters of last year set records for siding volume and revenue. And while we expect second-half revenue to be roughly 5% higher than first-half revenue, this will result in a year-over-year decline in the second half of 12% to 13%, and therefore a full-year siding revenue decline of roughly 10%. With respect to OSB, the rapid increase in OSB prices also complicates our algorithmic approach to revenue guidance, in part because LP's price realization tends to lag price movements in either direction. That being said, if we assume that prices remain flat at last Friday's levels published by random lengths, and if we adjust for the lag time induced by our order file and other factors, we would expect OSB revenue to be at least 50% higher sequentially compared to the second quarter of this year. And it should go without saying, but just for the avoidance of doubt, this is not a price prediction, merely an assumption for modeling purposes. Under these assumptions, and including the costs of a third quarter press rebuild in siding, as well as some maintenance in the OSB business deferred from earlier in the year, we would expect total company EBITDA to be between $160 and $180 million in the third quarter. And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please wait for your name to be announced. We ask that you please limit your questions to one with one follow-up. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from Susan McLaury with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Susan McLaury
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. My first question is, can you talk... Good morning. Can you talk a bit about the volumes in siting as we think about the back half? Any color perhaps on where the channel inventories are? And then as we think about you increasingly lapping the pricing actions that were taken last year and even earlier this year, is it fair to assume that a lot of that decline in the back half comes through volumes?
Aaron Howell
So, Susan, let me start with inventory questions. So, yeah, we're still experiencing higher inventories than what would have been normal pre-COVID, in our opinion. Those inventories were worked down, say, really starting in March through the second quarter. But for certain parts of our distribution channel, they're still elevated higher than we would like to see, though I do think we'll work through all that in Q3. From a pricing standpoint, just to remind everyone, we did do a price increase mid-year last year and the beginning of this year. So, you know, all that price that we'll be lapping in your terminology, that mid-year last year price increase during Q3, and then we'll obviously enjoy the increase that we had this year. So, you know, the revenue guidance that we have given does incorporate those two elements. price increases but doesn't anticipate another mid-year price increase.
Susan McLaury
Okay. And then perhaps turning to the margin in siting, can you give any color on how you're thinking about the cost structure in the back half, any potential relief in terms of raw materials, transportation that could come through in there? And as you think about that coming through, Is it possible that we could see those second half margins in siting moving closer to perhaps that 20% range, even as the volumes continue to be lower?
Wawa
Well, that's a tough call, Sue. Certainly, we are seeing some raw material cost relief, which is beginning to show through. I did mention the existence of a press rebuilding Q3, specifically so that that wasn't treated as being sort of incremental because we will have the fall-off from Q2 to the second half of some of the ramp-up costs to be kind of replaced by the cost of the press rebuild. And then, so there's nothing sort of particularly unusual that we're modeling in the cost base within siding for the second half of the year.
Susan McLaury
Okay.
Wawa
Yes, there's a little bit of relief on raw materials.
Susan McLaury
Yeah, are you seeing that there's some year-over-year deflation that could come through on those raws and maybe transportation as well?
Wawa
Yeah, there's some, yeah.
Susan McLaury
Yeah, okay.
Wawa
There's certainly a good tailwind there, yeah.
Susan McLaury
Yes, okay, all right. Thank you for the color. Good luck with everything. Thank you.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Rocklin with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
Michael Rocklin
Thank you, Brad, Alan, Aaron, for taking my questions. Can you, just following up with signing, can you help us think about the future volume growth in signing? Obviously, you know, shed demand, which I think is about 20% of your mix, was notably weaker this quarter. Demand was also pulled forward during COVID. So, um, just trying to figure out how you, how you see demand shaping up and signing on a go forward basis and look what type of growth we should ultimately expect. Maybe once channel inventory is clear.
Aaron Howell
Yeah. So, so yeah, we're, we're optimistic about growth going forward in siting. And if you think about the, all the work and effort and product innovation that has gone into, uh, start with our expert finish pre-finish program. the facility that we're building in Bath, New York to provide East Coast volume in an efficient way. We really feel like we're positioned well and from starting with a pretty low market share in the repair and remodel area outside of the Midwest to really grow that repair and remodel through our expert finish penetration across the country. And then from, you know, we launched builder series early last year And that's a product that is focused on the large national builders who we all know are taking market share in this current environment. And we feel like that really positions us well to grow. Because within new construction, we are underpenetrated with large national builders. And now that we have this product in place, really encourage that as housing continues to improve, as a large... Builders continue to take share really in a fine position from a competitive product standpoint to take advantage of that growth. So we're super optimistic about the portfolio. And let me just add one other thing. We do have an initiative to place lap and trim at consumer retail, which is another area where we've been very underpenetrated historically. So all that really gives us a lot of confidence to believe that After this year, we're going to be back on that solid growth rate that we've enjoyed over the last decade in siding. Plus, we've got 200 salespeople whose job it is and whose comp is related to growing siding. We feel like we've got the right product, we've got a good brand, a really, really good value proposition, and we've got a sales force that is in the process of transitioning from two years of operating under a managed order file to actively selling and picking up market share. So super excited about continued growth in siding over the mid-term to long-term time horizon.
Michael Rocklin
Thanks, Brad. Just in terms of your forecast, does your forecast in terms of siding growth still assume that sheds comprise 20% of the mix, or is the growth predicated more on you know, new construction and areas, other areas where you may be under penetrating.
Aaron Howell
Yeah, I would say still around that, I'll make one little caveat. You know, we do have to estimate that somewhat because some of the shed SKUs are accessed by the shed manufacturers through regular two-step distribution. But certainly, we can kind of tell from our panel sales. And, you know, during COVID, as we talked about, that was a really strong part of our portfolio. When you look at panel sales this year versus 2019, it's still going to be way up, but it is certainly off of what we experienced during COVID. I would say that is certainly a weak market right now. We feel like we're holding our own everywhere else, but the first half and SHED was extremely weak. And the second quarter actually, you know, caught us by surprise how weak it was. I mean, I don't think there's any long-term, I'm sorry, just one more. I don't think there's any long-term issues with SHED. You know, historically there, we've had, we've been able to grow market share in SHED during kind of downward trend periods in SHED. But our panel market share is pretty dominant there. So we're going to, you know, we're in a position where we have to ride through the ups and downs in the shed market because our ability to gain market share, at least with panel product and shed, is pretty low right now given our position.
Michael Rocklin
Got it. I appreciate all the comment. And one final question before I turn it over. Just in terms of pricing on the side, you mentioned obviously it's up year over year, but sequentially pricing was down. Can you provide some color on what drove the decline on a sequential basis? Is it a mixed factor? Is it concessions? Just trying to get a sense of why pricing would decline sequentially.
Wawa
Yeah, it was mostly, it was entirely mix, mix of product within the portfolio that drove it down. It wasn't a function of list price increases or anything like that.
Michael Rocklin
Just mix. Got it. Thank you very much and good luck in the second half. Yes, Michael.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of George Staffos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.
George Staffos
Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. A couple of sort of micro questions to start, and then I had some other questions on siting. So you called down capital spending a bit earlier. And comparing the slides, 1Q versus 2Q, there's both some trimming both on the conversion and also strategic growth capital. Obviously, maybe with the year proceeding a little bit less quickly than you would have expected, that'd be natural. But if there's any other color you could share in terms of why those numbers moved. And then on the $16 million of OSB patent-related claims, if you could Remind us what's behind that, recognizing it's now in the past, but what was in those figures and drove the settlement claim.
Wawa
So let me start in order then with the capex. There's a little bit of modest trimming, but the majority of this is that we were fairly conservative on both the upfront payments we may need to make for Wawa, as well as payments to which we were committed for Holton 2 prior to us putting Wawa next in line and therefore delaying Holton 2 by virtue of Wawa going in front of that. So the team's done a sort of an excellent job in negotiating our way out of some of the payments that we would have had to make for Holton 2. That's the primary, that conservatism in Wawa and negotiating our way out of certain payments for Holton 2 were the primary reasons for the reduction in capital. Good news already.
George Staffos
Got it. And on the patent claim?
Wawa
Yes. I'm not really at liberty to disclose a great deal. It was – I just – yeah, thank you. I can't disclose the – but it's – the matter is closed and behind us, and it's settled. And in case it's not clear, it relates to something within the OSB business.
George Staffos
Okay. Now, we'll leave it there. Can you talk to us a bit about how the distribution strategy has evolved for siding over the last couple of years? And, you know, are there any reasons, again, in answering some of the earlier questions, a lot of the weakness in 2Q is with sheds, we get it, but Are you finding your distribution strategy is allowing you to grow at the pace you want? How does your distro strategy compare with some of the other signing companies? So any changes, any needs to change tactics at all? How does it compare versus peers?
Aaron Howell
Great question, George. So going into COVID in 2019, let me just take a macro answer to that question and move to our strategies. So pro-retailer, well, there's consolidation going on in the channel, and pro-retailers and other one-step market access vehicles through consolidation have grown in importance. Traditionally, we have been a two-step distribution as our primary means of accessing the builder and contractors historically. And look, two-step distribution is still really important to us, but our ability to access the large national builders through the pro retail channel really speaks to a need to have a more direct relationship, more direct sales into pro retail. And by the way, not that this is ever that controversial, but also similarly for the one-steppers that access repair and remodel. So we had an initiative going into 2019 of placing reloads in strategic urban populations and having a more direct access for certain parts of our portfolio to access national builders and contractors. Obviously, during COVID and the demand for the product, we put that initiative on hold and we did everything we could do just to keep up with the orders. But as product became available this year and we had inventory internally, we have stepped up the pace of This kind of reload strategy in the marketplace to have the more direct access so So while there and there can be some pain associated with that right, you know as we as we build that infrastructure to access that directly I am confident that that is going to pay off in the long term as we continue to execute our big builder strategy and our repair and remodel strategy and as you implied in your question That is consistent with what other large specialty manufacturers have done over the years to make sure the market access is keeping up with the times. And so let me say, so no, I am not, you know, I didn't in no way want to imply that this year's volume is somehow constrained by lack of distribution quality or anything like that. We have really good distribution in place, but we are in this transitionary period where We're going more direct with the pro retailer and one stepper for R&R. And so that, because we have the inventory available to do that and open these reloads. So it is a bit of a transitionary period for us. But in the long run, I believe it's going to pay off or we wouldn't be doing it. For sure, Brett.
George Staffos
Okay, thanks. I'll turn it over and come back. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
One moment for our next question, please. Question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtoora with BMO. Your line is now open.
Keaton
Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Perhaps starting with Q2's siding volume drop, is there any way you can quantify, you've mentioned several times that the shed business was weak. Can you quantify how much volumes in the shed business were down in Q2 and has that trend changed at all so far in Q3?
Aaron Howell
Yeah, well, fortunately there has been a little, there has been a shift where some of those shed manufacturers are back in our order file, which is where it was very little of that activity in the first half, particularly in Q2. So we have seen a bit of a strengthening there. And then as far as the quantifying the amount down, um about we were we were down about 20 percent over prior say first half volumes in in a shed versus prior year you know and look it's a you know we're we're estimating you know our shed business to be you know somewhere around 30 percent of our volume you know 25 again it's hard to get to find a point on it because some of it goes through distribution but just given the weakness in the in the direct set direct shed and direct shed distributors volumes that we've seen in the second half and our conversations with shed manufacturers, that segment is down significantly.
Keaton
Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-on, can you give us some sense in terms of the inventory destocking that you saw in siding? How much, you know, kind of that impacted your volumes in Q2? Or to put it differently, you know, can you give us some sense of sell-through trends, the underlying customer demand in siding in Q2 and what you are seeing there?
Aaron Howell
Yes. So, sell-through demand at our distribution, you know, given the best information we have, which isn't 100%, has been obviously been stronger than our sales into distribution. Because we do know the inventories have been worked down since March. And so the sell-through is going to be healthier than what we're experiencing right now. And again, as you know, Keaton, and you've been following us for a while, once we get to a stable inventory situation and distribution, then all that volume will show up in our order file, where it's not doing that today. You know, I will just add a little color to it. You know, it is complex right now. I think distribution is still trying to figure out what the new normal inventory level should be given, you know, given the COVID experience, given the fact that, you know, throughout COVID, I don't mean to keep speaking to COVID, but during that period of time, I just saw that two year period, you know, the introduction of expert finish, which carries a lot, requires a lot more inventory to carry the color palette. Our distribution and us, LP, are trying to figure out what is the right amount of inventory needed to service the market. So I think there's some of that uncertainty is playing into the order strategy of our distributors. But once again, once we get to a point where all folks are comfortable with the inventory level, then we'll see that direct sale through showing up in our order file. But it certainly has been a contributing factor in the first half to our overall volume. It's just that the inventory level that we've had to work through.
Keaton
Got it. That's helpful perspective. I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you.
Keaton
Thank you, Keith.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Sean Stewart with TD Securities. Your line is now open.
Sean Stewart
Thank you. Good morning. I won't ask any siding questions. I think those are uncovered there. On CapEx, Alan, you touched on some of the nuance with the Holton payments being deferred. Can you give us a sense, as you look ahead to 2024, the spending on siding conversions next year, how that would stock up versus $120 to $130 million this year?
Wawa
You know, it is actually genuinely too early for me to make a good call on that. Gut call, though, right now, as we're developing our plans, probably similar is my gut call right now. No significant change. It's a weak answer, but that's closest to the truth, thankfully.
Sean Stewart
That's good enough for me. Another question on OSB. Brad, I'd be interested in your thoughts on the run we've seen year to date, but especially of late. It feels like new home construction is surprised versus muted expectations, but your perspective on what's driven the run we've seen and at what point do you consider industry supply growth as a mitigating factor that could undermine the momentum we've seen of late?
Aaron Howell
Well, you know, I think what we've experienced this year has been, you know, manufacturers and LP coming in the year predicting a soft housing market and kind of gearing production plans. And then speaking for what we did, gearing our production plans accordingly and then having, you know, stronger than pretty much every month, stronger than expected housing forecast. I'll also say, unlike siding, you know, OSB inventories were lean. coming into the year as distributors work those inventories down. And so, you know, minimal to low, not minimal, but low inventories in the channel, say in February, so that when the building season hit and was stronger than anticipated, you know, there was some scrambling for volume. And, you know, it's, I mean, even as big as the OSB business is, the industry, I mean, Once distribution gets behind on inventory, but sales are strong, it's difficult to catch up and that translates into pricing. I'll just say, listen, I've predicted OSB pricing to our board of directors and got it wrong every time. The last six years, I can no longer even pretend that I know what's going to happen tomorrow with OSB pricing. But I would just say this is August, and we've got three more months of really good housing, building, and construction weather ahead of us. It's typically September and October are really strong demand months in this industry for both OSB and siding. And so we feel good about the outlook for the next little while. I'm not saying the pricing can't bounce around up or down given the elevated levels that we're seeing today, but I mean, the channel's still pretty tight, and I feel good about our near-term outlook for OSB. And then I think once we get to Thanksgiving, we'll have to reassess, and we're already doing that analysis of what we're going to do in order to match our capacity to the demand that we see in our order file. So I guess we'll talk about that on the next call, but I feel good about the outlook in the near term as far as the demand and capacity situation for our production and for the industry.
Sean Stewart
That's great detail. Thanks very much. That's all I have.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Yeager with DA Davidson. Your line is now open.
Kurt Yeager
Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to stick with OSB here. Good morning for a minute. Yeah, I think you referenced some kind of deferred maintenance and some market curtailments. Maybe that was primarily a Q1 comment. But can you just help us kind of frame what the upside could be in terms of OSB volumes in the back half of the year? And then just on Peace Valley specifically, I mean, how is production going at that mill? Any recent impacts from wildfires or anything like that?
Aaron Howell
We've had no wildfire-related downtime at any of the Canadian mills. We've had some fire in the area, but not anything that's impacted wood flow or our ability to produce. We are running three shifts in Peace Valley, three in Maniwaki. And forecast no change of that throughout the rest of this year. And then as we, you know, at any given time in our production planning, as we see demand weaken, you know, we're not putting, you know, unneeded volume into the market. So we shift downtime around in our system, just giving the, you know, the cost situation or the demand situation in that given week. And so we'll continue to run that balancing act as we go through the year. And it has been part of each quarter's operating plan, moving down time around. And that's how we'll run for the rest of the year. And when you say second half versus first half, I mean, if demand is higher in the second half, we'll run more production. But when you look at the half of the year, again, let's just keep in mind you know, November and December can be light from a demand standpoint. And typically, you know, and there's really no typical OSP year, but typically, you know, we do take down time around the Christmas holiday season, you know, as demand slows and then we give, you know, use that time and we do some maintenance work. So we'll be planning, as I mentioned earlier, we'll be doing that planning throughout the rest of the year and, you know, and we'll make the right moves to make sure we have the right balance as we proceed into early next year.
Kurt Yeager
Got it. Okay, thanks for that. And then just my second question, I mean, at a high level, can you maybe just talk about what you think kind of annualized siting volumes or maybe from an operating rate perspective, what that would need to look like, kind of excluding some of these short-term factors to get back to that long-term goal of 25% EBITDA margins?
Wawa
The simple answer is, if you think about it, take a look at the Q2 waterfall. The EBITDA margin is so volume-dependent. I can't say I've actually done the math, but it's relatively simple. If you take that Q2 waterfall and you add back the volume at that high variable margins, you're very close to that. But for the volume decline this year, we'd be at that rate. And that, as we all know, is temporary. This is a business that's on a growth trajectory. Therefore, that growth will deliver the margins that we've committed to.
Kurt Yeager
Okay. Thanks for that, Alan. Good luck here in Q3, guys.
Sean Stewart
Thanks, Kurt.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question will come from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open.
Mark Weintraub
Thanks. Maybe following up a little bit on your answer, Alan, to the last question. I mean, one difference, obviously, is you now have the GOLA as well. and your EBITDA margins, for a number of different reasons, were not 25% last year either. And I guess what I'm just trying to sort through with all these different moving parts, if I look at where, including Segola, your capacity would be in kind of the indicated volumes for this year, I think you're kind of 70%, recognizing, again, Segola's not really able to run full this year, but And so kind of the first question is like, how do you think through the volume increase to that point where you are at, you know, pretty healthy utilization rates and where you need Wawa as, you know, capacity to be available? Can you sort of just walk us through the thinking there?
Wawa
I'm going to try because I'm not sure I fully understand the question and it can be a Dangerous thing to let my mouth run when I'm not sure I fully understand the question, but I'm going to make the attempt. Two things. If we look at our business right now, as I tried to point out, we are maintaining, we're ramping up Segola so that we are in a position to benefit from the upside and the growing market and the growth that is coming. And we're carrying that cost deliberately. We're already carrying some of the costs of that, essentially future growth. When we do bring on Segola, yes, you're right, that will add a fixed cost base in advance of the volume, as always happens. But it will be a smaller proportion of the whole. So the bigger we get, it's hard to run at a faster rate, bear with me on this, than one extra, one mil being ramped up per year. And so the larger we get, if you bear with me on the logic, with one extra mill being added to the fleet per year, let's imagine that's our long-term trajectory, that extra mill will be a small proportion of the whole, and the remainder of the business will continue to harvest those high margins. And we mustn't forget the continued pricing power of the business and the mixed shift towards expert finish and so on that also will continue to enhance the margin. And we should not not forget our ability, as I think we're demonstrating right now, to run our mills extremely efficiently again.
Mark Weintraub
Right. All good points. And absolutely, kind of that embedded cost is impacting the margin quite a bit this year as you wrap up. I guess sort of the heart of the question was, there's so many of these moving parts that I realize it's difficult to answer, but how do you see the track to what would be a significant increase in volume. And so, I mean, how much of it is a function that you think D-stock, and I know if you can quantify how much D-stock is suppressing, how much sheds is under normal. And then once we adjust for those two factors, how long in a kind of normal growth environment, if it's flat housing, does it take us to get to the points where your system is fully utilized? I realize it's probably unfair to ask that question on the fly like this, but I tried.
Wawa
Thank you. It is unfair and I'm going to half answer it. So just as you're being unfair, yes, I'll be unfair and say, you know, a long-term growth algorithm or promise to everybody listening is that we'll grow something like eight to 10 points better than the market. And we still believe that's the case. The definition of the market may be a bit hazy from time to time, but over the long run, just as we have over the last decade, we're highly confident in that growth trajectory as well as the pricing power of the product. So we are highly confident in our long-term strategy being able to deliver that growth. That's it. I'll stop there. Not that my mouth runs further.
Mark Weintraub
And I'll stop too. Thanks, Alan.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our final question. And our next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.
Paul Quinn
Great. Thanks, guys. Maybe just following up on this thesis of growing 8% to 10% better in the market, the guidance for 23 is down 10% on revenue. So if we flip that thesis around, do you feel quite comfortable that you're shrinking less fast than the rest of the competition? Or put it another way, how are you doing when you sit back relative to the other competition deciding how well are you performing?
Aaron Howell
I'll take it. If you allow me, I'll take that in three parts. So shed, you know, let's just say, roughly, I mean, we've been throwing out numbers, but third of our business, just for illustrative reasons, we are our competitors in shed, we're no, no worse off than anybody else, because that would, you know, that markets down, we have dominant market share. for the panel component of SHED. Repair and remodel or expert finish, I feel good about. I think we are taking share this year with that product, given that we're holding our own from a revenue standpoint. So I feel like share gain is possible there. Now, the more interesting one is new construction. I feel good about our position with new construction and that we're holding our own, if not gaining share where our strength has been historically, which is the smaller or regional builders. With a big builder, we launched a product, as you know, Builder Series, in order to have a competitive position there. And we are taking market share there, but from a tiny starting point. So we can't ring a bell about that one saving us right now because of the market share that we had with lab siding at the big builder was pretty low 18 months ago. But the product that we have there is competitive. And it's a competitive landscape to play in. But we are recording wins there that I feel like demonstrates our ability to gain market share there. It's not enough at this point in time from a volume standpoint to overcome shed being down like it has been. It's not enough to overcome housing starts being down the way they're down year over year. But for the long term, it plays well with our ability to position ourselves to take advantage of the coming upswing in housing.
Paul Quinn
All right. That's helpful. And then just any change in South America for the balance of the year versus the first half?
Aaron Howell
You know, our team down there feels like the second half could be a little stronger than the first half. But I think for modeling purposes, Paul, just replicate it. You'll be pretty accurate. And then hopefully there's a little upside to that. All right.
Aaron Howell
That's all I had. Best of luck. Thank you, Paul. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. And that concludes our Q&A portion. I would now like to hand the conference back to Mr. Aaron Holwal for closing comments.
Aaron Howell
Okay, thanks, Norma, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. With no more questions, we'll bring the second quarter call for LP Building Solutions to a close. Have a great day, stay safe, and we'll look forward to talking to you soon.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.
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