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Operator
Good day and welcome to the Lamb Weston first quarter 2021 earnings call.
Tom
Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dexter Congolet, VP Investor Relations of Lamb Weston. Please go ahead.
Dexter Congolet
Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's first quarter 2021 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website, lambweston.com. Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release. With me today are Tom Warner, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Rob McNutt, our Chief Financial Officer. Tom will provide an overview of the current operating environment as well as other business updates. Rob will then provide some details on our first quarter results as well as some trends that we're seeing so far in the second quarter. With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom.
Lamb Weston 's
Thank you, Dexter. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. I hope that you and your families continue to be well. Let me just start off by saying that I feel good about our performance in the quarter and how we are executing as a company. This is a testament to the Lamb-Weston team, and I want to thank them for their commitment to each other and our company as well as their continued service to our customers, suppliers, and communities. As we navigate this challenging environment, our first priority remains ensuring the health and safety of our employees. Since the onset of the pandemic, we have instituted more rigorous operating protocols across the company, especially for our production and frontline teams that work to keep feeding the world while keeping our manufacturing facilities and products safe. In some cases, this has created additional burdens for our team members and their families, and I want to thank them for their commitment and understanding. I continue to be inspired by the spirit of teamwork that our employees show every day, and that makes me proud to be a part of this great company. In addition to the hard work by our team, our improved financial performance versus our fourth quarter of 2020 reflects two broad factors. First, the operating environment has steadily recovered over the past few months with restaurant traffic and fry demand improving in North America and most of our key markets. Second, we have gotten better at managing through the disruption that the pandemic has created in our manufacturing operations, as well as controlling costs across the business. With respect to the operating environment, We are optimistic about the sequential improvement, breadth and pace of recovery in restaurant traffic and fry demand. However, we also remain cautious about the uncertainty of the recovery stability with COVID continuing to be a challenge in the U.S. and some key international markets. In the U.S., overall restaurant traffic and fry demand steadily improved early in the quarter, then largely stabilized at levels that were below what we saw just before the pandemic. Traffic at large quick-service chain restaurants approached prior-year levels, especially during the latter half of the quarter, by leveraging drive-through, take-out, and delivery formats. Full-service restaurant traffic also improved as the quarter progressed, then stabilized at about 75% to 80% of prior-year levels as governments relaxed restrictions for on-premise dining, and restaurants leaned more on carry-out delivery and outdoor dining to generate sales. Traffic and demand at noncommercial customers, which includes lodging and hospitality, healthcare, schools and universities, sports and entertainment, and workplace environments remain at less than 50% of prior year levels for the entire quarter, although it did improve modestly as the quarter progressed. In retail, demand growth in the quarter was strong. After peaking at more than 50% weekly category volume growth in April and May, weekly volume growth steadily moderated to between 15% and 20% growth by August as restrictions on restaurants eased. In Europe, which is served by our Lamb, West, and Meyer joint venture, fry demand approached prior year levels by the end of the quarter, although it's important to note that demand at this time last year was somewhat soft for us due to a poor potato crop. Demand improvement in our other key international markets was mixed. In China and Australia, demand steadily improved and approached prior levels by the end of the quarter. In our other key markets in Asia and Latin America, the improvement in demand was uneven as governments employed differing approaches to contain the spread of the virus. In short, demand steadily improved in the U.S. and across most of our international markets as summer progressed, then stabilized below pre-pandemic levels. Along with that steady recovery in demand, our teams leveraged lessons learned when COVID first hit and have adapted our operations to better manage through the current environment. As I noted earlier, since the onset of the pandemic, we've stepped up our employee safety and sanitation protocols at each of our manufacturing, commercial and support locations, which has resulted in earlier detection of COVID among our workforce. We've also steadily become more efficient in minimizing disruptions to our manufacturing facilities and service levels, including isolating specific areas of our facilities that would be needed to shut down, sanitize and restart after members of our production team are affected by the virus, as well as increasing flexibility to adjust production schedules and runtimes across the network. Our supply chain team has been able to significantly reduce our incremental production costs and inefficiency as compared to what we incurred in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. We've also taken a range of steps to aggressively manage our selling, general, and administrative expenses, including shutting down all travel and large meetings and deferring other discretionary expenditures and projects. However, one project that we did not defer was implementing phase one of our new enterprise resource planning system, as we believe it will be a key enabler to driving efficiencies over the long term. We are currently evaluating options for when to begin implementing phase two. Before handing the call off to Rob, let me update you on the potato crop and the pricing environment. With respect to the crop, On a preliminary basis, we believe the crop in our growing areas in the Columbia Basin, Idaho, Alberta, and the Upper Midwest will be consistent with historical averages in the aggregate. Our early read on the European potato crop is that it will also be consistent with historical averages, and that's a welcome sign given the poor crops in recent years. As usual, we'll provide our updated view of the crop's yield and quality and how we expect the crop to hold up in storage when we report our second quarter results in early January. With respect to contract discussions and pricing, we're largely through the negotiations for the domestic large chain restaurant contracts that are up for renewal this year. And in the aggregate, we have maintained stable pricing in the portfolio. For those contracts yet to be finalized, we'll remain disciplined and take an approach designed to maintain and reinforce our strategic customer relationships. Outside of these large chain restaurant contracts, on balance, domestic pricing continues to hold up well. However, we have begun to see increased competitive activity in some domestic market segments as well as more value-oriented product segments in some international markets. As demand continues to strengthen, we expect pricing pressure in these segments will lessen. In summary, we feel good about our performance in the quarter and how we're executing as a company. We're optimistic about the positive demand trends in the U.S. and in our key international markets, but we remain cautious due to the continued uncertainty with the current operating environment. We're navigating through the crisis by prioritizing the health and safety of our employees, leveraging our manufacturing footprint and operational agility to make sure we service customers, and aggressively controlling costs across the entire company. And finally, we're encouraged about the health of this year's crop, as well as the overall pricing stability across our portfolio. These are challenging times, which we expect will be around for a while, but we also believe that by focusing on our strategies and our commitment to our employees and servicing our customers, we'll emerge as a stronger company. Now let me turn the call over to Rob. Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. As Tom noted, we believe that we weathered the worst of the pandemic's effect on our operations during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. Demand across most restaurant sectors has improved from the lows of Q4, providing a backdrop for us to deliver a 3% sequential sales growth in our first quarter. The sequential increase in earnings was more dramatic. We nearly doubled gross profit from $111 million to $214 million. and increased EBITDA, including joint ventures, by more than 2.5 times, from $78 million to $202 million, as we increased operating leverage and we greatly improved our ability to control costs and manage through the disruption that the pandemic has on our manufacturing network and distribution chain. While our results remain below pre-pandemic levels and down versus prior year, this sequential improvement in the demand environment and our financial performance is encouraging. Now turning to our year-over-year results. Net sales declined 12% versus prior year quarter to $872 million. Sales volume was down 14% as frozen potato demand outside the home continued to be affected by government-imposed restrictions on restaurant traffic and other food service operations. However, after realizing some benefit from customers reloading inventories early in the first quarter, our weekly shipment trends in each of our domestic channels and most of our international markets steadily improved as the quarter progressed. I'll discuss this in more detail when reviewing our business segment performance. Price mix increased 2% due to improvements in both the food service and retail segments. Gross profit declined $35 million with about $16 million due to pandemic-related costs on our manufacturing and supply chain operations. That $16 million is down from $47 million of pandemic-related production costs that we incurred in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. Of the 16 million, about six were utilization-related costs and inefficiencies arising from disruptions to our manufacturing network. That compares to about $25 million of costs for utilization-related costs that we incurred in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, these costs largely relate to labor and other costs to shut down, sanitize, and restart manufacturing facilities impacted by COVID. costs associated with modifying production schedules and reducing run times across our network to compensate for facilities impacted by COVID, and incremental costs and inefficiencies related to manufacturing retail products on lines primarily designed for food service products. The other 10 of the $16 million consists of non-utilization-related costs, and included about $3 million of expense to the remaining crop year 2019 raw potato purchase obligations, and about $7 million for enhanced employee safety, sanitation protocols, as well as for incremental warehousing, transportation, and supply chain costs. As we previously discussed, we expect to incur utilization and non-utilization related costs and inefficiencies as long as our manufacturing and supply chain operations are impacted by the pandemic. The remaining $19 million decline in gross profit largely reflects lower sales volumes, partially offset by favorable price mix, a $5 million year-over-year change in mark-to-market adjustments, and cost efficiency savings. SG&A in the quarter was essentially flat. Cost management efforts including a $3.5 million reduction in advertising and promotional expense, offset $1 million of non-recurring expenses associated with implementing our new ERP system, and $4 million of pandemic-related expenses largely related to net costs of retaining certain sales employees. Equity method earnings were $12 million, up $1 million from last year. However, excluding the impact of unrealized mark-to-market adjustments, equity earnings declined $2 million, with half due to pandemic-related costs similar to what we incurred in our base business. While down versus last year, equity earnings increased sequentially as a result of significant decline in pandemic-related costs in the first quarter, as well as steady improvements in our weekly shipments by our European joint venture. EBITDA, including joint ventures, was $202 million, down $31 million. About $21 million of the decline was due to pandemic-related costs I've discussed. The remainder of the EBITDA decline was driven by lower sales and gross profit. Diluted EPS in the quarter was $0.61, down $0.18 or 23% from last year. Now moving to our segments. Sales for our global segment, which includes the top 100 U.S.-based QSR and full-service restaurant chains, as well as all sales outside of North America, were down 14% in the quarter. Price mix declined 1% as a result of negative mix. Volume sell 13% due to the decline in demand for fries outside of the home. However, weekly shipments to large QSR chains, which historically comprise about one-half of global segment sales, improved from around 85% of prior year levels at the end of May to near prior year levels by the end of the first quarter. Weekly shipments to large full-service chains, which historically comprised about 10% of global sales, improved from 45% to 50% in May to 70% to 80% by the end of the first quarter as governments relaxed restrictions on on-premise dining and as restaurants improved carryout and delivery capabilities. International sales, which historically comprised about 40% of segment sales, were mixed. As Tom noted, monthly shipments in China and Australia approached prior year levels by the end of the quarter as demand steadily improved. Monthly shipment trends in other markets in Asia Pacific and Latin America were uneven. This mirrored pattern in demand recovery, but also generally lagged the rate of improvement as customers and distributors in these markets continued to right-size their inventories. Global's product contribution margin, which is gross profit less A&P expense, declined $25 million to $78 million. Pandemic-related costs accounted for about $9 million of the decline, with the remainder driven by lower sales. Sales for our food service segment, which services North American food service distributors and restaurant chains outside the top 100 North American restaurant customers, declined 22% in the quarter. Price mix increased 6%, behind the carryover benefit of pricing actions taken in the latter half of fiscal 20. Mix was unfavorable for two reasons. First, independent restaurants, which purchase a high amount of Lamb Weston branded products, have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. And second, some customers have traded down to more value-oriented products in order to reduce costs. It's important to note that this impact was more pronounced in the fiscal fourth quarter, and we've steadily regained much of this business as restaurant traffic improved in recent months. Volume declined 28%, reflecting the continued impact that government-imposed restrictions have had on consumer traffic. Our weekly shipments to full-service and small and regional quick-service restaurants which together have historically compromised three-quarters of the segment's sales, improved to 80% to 85% of prior year sales by the end of the first quarter. Our weekly shipments to non-commercial outlets, which have historically compromised the other 25% of the segment's sales, modestly improved as the quarter progressed, but were soft at about 50% of prior year levels. Food services product contribution margin declined $17 million to $86 million, with pandemic-related costs accounting for $4 million of the decline. The remainder was primarily driven by lower sales, offset by a favorable price mix. Sales in our retail segment increased 19% in the quarter. Volume increased 11%. although this masks the performance of our branded portfolio, which historically has compromised about 40% of the segment's volume. Our brands are winning. Volume growth of our grown-in Idaho, Alexia, and licensed brand products was up together more than 30% in the quarter. That's well above weekly category volume growth rates, which ranged between 15% and 25%. However, retail segments' volume growth was partially offset by a decline in private label shipments, which reflects the loss of certain low-margin private label business that largely began during the third quarter of fiscal 2020. Price mix increased 8%, reflecting that favorable mix of more branded products. Retail's product contribution margin increased $7 million to $36 million and was driven by higher sales volumes, favorable mix, and lower NP expense. This increase was partially offset by $3 million of pandemic-related costs. Moving to our cash flow and liquidity position, in the first quarter, we generated more than $250 million of cash from operations. That's up $12 million versus last year. Our top priorities in deploying cash continue to be investing to grow the business and returning cash to shareholders. In the quarter, we spent $33 million in CapEx, including for our new ERP system. Given the outlook for the business, cash flow, and improved liquidity position, we're increasing our capital expenditures target for the year to $180 million from $140 million. as we invest in productivity and optimization projects, as well as some targeted growth capacity. With respect to capital returns, we declared our regular quarterly dividend two weeks ago. Since the pandemic began, we've taken steps to enhance our liquidity and further strengthen our financial position by entering into a new $325 million term loan and completing a $500 million In September, we amended our credit agreement to put in place a new three-year $750 million revolver to replace the $500 million facility that was set to expire in November of 2021. The new revolver remains undrawn and fully available. In conjunction with the revolver, with more than $1 billion of cash on hand, we chose to prepay the approximately $270 million outstanding balance on the term loan that was due in November 2021. All in, the financing actions we've taken since the pandemic began have increased our liquidity by nearly $1 billion, lowered our weighted average interest rate, and stretched our debt amortization, while only increasing our expected annual after-tax interest payments by about $11 million. So along with our ability to continue to generate cash, we feel good about our current liquidity position.
Dexter
Now turning to some demand trends that we're seeing in the second quarter.
Lamb Weston 's
As Tom mentioned, in the aggregate, the demand environment and our weekly shipments have largely stabilized during the latter half of the first quarter and into the first four weeks of September. Specifically, in the US, shipments to date in the second quarter are approximately 90% of prior year levels. In our global segment, weekly shipments to our large QSR and full service chain restaurant customers in the US are trending at around 95% of prior year levels. While QSRs are likely to be largely unaffected, we anticipate that shipments to full service restaurants could take a step back as outdoor dining options become more limited with the onset of colder weather. In our food service segment, weekly shipments to our full-service restaurants, regional and small QSRs, and non-commercial customers in aggregate are trending at approximately 80% of prior year levels. Shipments to full-service restaurants and small and regional QSRs have been trending above that rate but could soften due to colder weather. Shipments to non-commercial customers have been trending well below that rate and are likely to remain so until the spread of COVID is broadly contained. In our retail segment, weekly shipments are trending even with prior year levels. with strong volume growth of our branded products offset by a decline in shipments of private label products. In Europe, weekly shipments to date in the second quarter by our European joint venture are approaching prior year levels, although consumer demand at this time last year was somewhat soft due to high prices and quality concerns as a result of the poor crop. As in the U.S., we believe that shipments to full-service restaurants in Europe may also begin to soften as cold weather reduces outdoor dining options. Shipment trends in our other international markets are mixed. In China and Australia, shipments are approaching prior year levels. In other markets in Asia Pacific and Latin America, demand has improved since the end of the first quarter, although our shipments continue to generally lag demand improvements as customers, and distributors continue to right-size their inventories. As a reminder, all of our international sales are included as part of our global segments results. In short, overall demand across our markets is largely consistent with what we observed during the latter half of the first quarter, although we remain cautious about the effect of the onset of colder weather on outdoor dining. as well as the continuing spread of the virus in the U.S. and its resurgence in some key international markets. In addition, when estimating sales for the quarter, recall that our second quarter results last year benefited from strong sales of customized products, including limited-time offerings, as well as from additional shipping days related to the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday. With respect to costs, as we've previously discussed, We plan to process potatoes from the 2019 crop through early September, which is a couple of months longer than usual. We stretched out the old crop in order to manage inventories in light of the pandemic's impact on fry demand. Processing older crop results in higher cost as a result of higher raw potato storage fees and lower recovery rates. Since we typically carry upwards of 60 days of finished goods inventory, we'll realize the impact of these higher costs in our second quarter income statement as we sell that inventory over the coming months. Now here's Tom for some closing comments. Thanks, Rob. Let me just quickly sum up by saying it was a solid quarter in the context of the current operating environment, and I'm proud of how our manufacturing, commercial, and support teams have continued to focus on the right strategic and and operating priorities to serve our customers. We're optimistic about the steady improvement in restaurant traffic and fry demand in most of our markets, as well as our ability to control costs and manage through the pandemic's impact on our operations. However, we do expect some choppiness in demand as the world continues to manage through the crisis. We remain confident that Land Weston is well positioned to emerge as a strong company once we get to the other side of the pandemic and create value for our stakeholders over the long term. Thank you for joining us today, and we're now ready to take your questions.
Tom
If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question, and we'll take our first question from Chris Grau with Stiefel.
Dexter
Hi, good morning. Good morning, Chris.
Chris
Hi, thank you for the time. I just had a, just to start off, I had a question for you on the gross margin. Obviously, there was a marked improvement sequentially. You talked about the leverage. You talked about you had lower COVID costs as an example. You know, one other element of this that we've seen is stronger price and mix. It was stronger than I expected, especially in the food service division. I just want to get a sense of it. It sounded like mix was positive. You have some pricing coming through as well. I guess I'm trying to think about the first quarter versus the fourth quarter and how important that component was to the gross margin performance, or was it more the leverage than that price mix improvement?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Chris, this is Tom. You know, the important thing comparing to Q4, it's really about the volume returning. And because Q4, we just fell off a cliff in food service, and as you guys know, that's one of our stronger margin segments. So, you know, it's a combination of pricing flow through, and really the restaurant's reopenings and volume starting to recover in Q1 that really drove the sequential improvement.
Chris
And in relation from the pricing, you had that pricing in the fourth quarter. It just was masked by mix. Is that the way to say it in that food service division?
Lamb Weston 's
Well, yeah, absolutely. And, you know, we had significantly lower volume in Q4 compared So it was a mixed component of it. And, you know, as you look at, we talked about Q1, it's really volume and price flowing through and volume returning, like I said. Yeah. And in food service, Chris, that it's not a, that price increase comes through over time. I mean, it's not one customer. They're all different contracts, so they roll at a different time. So some of that has, you know, a little bit, more impact in Q1 than we saw in Q4.
Chris
I had just one more follow-on to that, and I'll let it go. But my question on the gross margin would be, as I think about it, normally from Q1 to Q2, you have a nice sequential improvement in gross margin. It sounds like you have some residual costs coming through from utilizing the old crop as an example and utilizing that inventory. You have a tough comp as well. Do we think about the gross margin? Is it just contingent on volume, or is there enough in the cost side there that we should think about as a gross margin, maybe being a little softer in Q2 versus Q1, even though sequentially that normally is better?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, I think you're spot on, Chris, that one, we've got some cost carryover that we don't normally have in Q2. Q2 normally we're selling crop that was processed directly out of field, so no storage cost to it, and they're fresh potatoes, so they process better. So that's going to have some impact on our Q2 margin. And in addition, as I mentioned, I think, in my comments, that recall the Q2 last year, we had strong performance in LTOs and other specialty products like that that help on the pricing side.
Dexter
Okay. Thank you for the time. Thank you.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.
Andrew Lazar
Good morning, everybody.
spk04
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Lazar
First thing, I think Tommy mentioned It sounds like there's some maybe increased competitive pressure in some segments of the U.S., maybe outside of some of the large chains and some of the more value-oriented, I think, international segments, you may have said. I was hoping you could just maybe go into that a little bit more and give us a sense of sort of what's happening there. And is it through sort of contracts or not necessarily contract pricing, just kind of more like spot pricing types of competitive dynamics? I'm trying to get a better handle on that.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Andrew, it's predominantly spot pricing in certain regions in North America. And I'd characterize it this way. It's a bit more pronounced than normal. And like I said, everything overall from a pricing standpoint is It's pretty stable. It's nothing we haven't seen before, you know, so we're watching it carefully. But obviously, you know, with capacity available, we just need to manage through it, and we will. The international side of it, the way to think about it, the pricing pressures on the lower line flow type items are that we characterize as non-value-added. So we play in that a little bit in a lot of these markets. But most of our focus is on the value-added, like, criss-cut, curly-fry-type items in the international markets. But, you know, it is getting competitive on the non-value-added side. Got it.
Andrew Lazar
And then, you know, you talked about sort of sequential demand trends and traffic trends certainly improving pretty dramatically. over the course of the quarter, of course, from the lows, if you will, in the fourth quarter. But that, you know, maybe the last couple of weeks, it seems to have kind of, you know, like stabilized or plateaued a little bit at some of the levels that Rob went through. Trying to get a sense of what you think is driving that sort of moderating pace, right, of sequential improvement in sort of restaurant traffic or away from home eating. Because obviously we haven't necessarily yet come into like super cold weather and things, to your point, have kind of moderated or the pace, right, of sequential improvement has moderated a bit. So trying to get a sense of what you're seeing out there and what you think is driving that. Thank you.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, some of the Q1, you know, think about it this way, Andrew. In Q1, as we reopened up, a lot of our customers said, started rebuilding stocking inventory because they dramatically decreased their orders starting in March, April, May. So there was a restock happening kind of mid-May through June, and everybody trying to get caught up. And so I think, you know, as I think about where we're at today in terms of demand, it's been pretty stable at the levels that we talked to in the script. And, you know, the thing, you know, we got our eye on is as the weather changes and, you know, you have flare-ups in COVID hotspots, we certainly have data where we look at the markets that are potentially put more restrictions on. We're watching those ordering patterns very closely. So, Those are a couple of things that we continue to remain cautious about. We just got to work through it, and it'll actualize itself over the next 90 days, but we're watching it carefully.
Dexter
Got it. Thanks very much. Yep.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Brian Spillane with Bank of America.
Brian Spillane
Hey, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Good morning, Brian. So just a couple questions. On margins, and I guess as we're thinking about costs going forward, you know, understanding that some of the COVID costs probably, you know, stay in the base for a while, can you just give us a sense for how much expenses maybe you're deferring into, you know, the out years? So just how much cost avoidance is there? is happening this year and that we might have to think about adding back into the out years. And then also just as we're talking about cost, if you can comment at all on just what you're seeing in terms of freight costs and if that's something we should be thinking about.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, thanks, Brian. In terms of deferring costs, I mean, you know, those inefficiency costs and the COVID costs and so forth, those are flowing straight through the inventory. Now, if you're asking about are we deferring any maintenance costs or things like that that might bite us in future years, none of that. We continue to maintain our facilities as we normally do, and so nothing there. So really nothing that I would say gets deferred into out years. Now, we did mention last call that we had deferred some expansion capital. that we were looking at. But again, that's, you know, we'll reassess that as the market recovers. In terms of freight costs, you know, I've heard others have had challenge with some near-term freight. We tend to contract a lot of our trucking, as opposed to play a lot in the spot market, where we'd had some freight volatility maybe more in Q4 is – and early in Q1 was as we were trying to catch up those inventories and hot-shotting some things, our rail truck freight had some negative impact to it. But that we pretty well stabilized. And, again, so because we contract the trucking largely, we're not as exposed as maybe some others that you may have heard.
Brian Spillane
Okay. And then just tying back to Andrew's question around pricing and just the competitive – dynamics in the market. Do you have a sense now of kind of where capacity utilization rates are or just how much slack there is in the system in North America? And, you know, again, I think we spoke about this last quarter. You know, it seems like there were some older plants maybe that had been taken out of commission. And so it's a little bit difficult, I think, from the seats we're sitting in really to get an understanding of just where where the industry sits right now in terms of utilization rates. So any call that you can help us with that would be helpful.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Brian, I, you know, I'm not going to get into a specific number on utilization rate because it's really a moving target right now. And, you know, we, if you think about Land West and, you know, obviously our utilization rates below, where we've historically operated. But on top of that, you know, as we have shutdowns in startups, you know, over the past, since the pandemic started, it really muddies the waters on what your overall capacity is. Now, we know the absolute number historically, but, you know, it's about running production as much as you can. in light of the disruptions we're experiencing, and they've gotten a lot better. And we're getting a lot, like I noted in my remarks, we're a lot better at adjusting and moving production around when we have a disruption to service our customers, which also there's a cost element to that. So I think as this becomes more stabilized, Brian, we'll have a better understanding of of the overall capacity utilization across the industry. And, you know, the competitive set is experiencing some of the same things that we are, so it's a bit of a moving target right now.
Brian Spillane
All right. Yeah, I appreciate that.
Dexter
Thank you. Thanks, Brent.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Tom Palmer with JP Morgan.
Tom Palmer
Good morning, and thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the retail shipment side. I was a bit surprised the quarter-to-date figure was only flat given how robust your branded takeaway is. I appreciate branded much stronger than private label, but do you think that the quarter-to-date shipment figure is an accurate reflection of overall takeaway trends for you at retail, or are shipments maybe lagging that takeaway a bit?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, I think that – Again, as I said in prepared remarks, that on our branded business, we continue to perform very well. And private label, we've seeded some of that volume that started really in Q3 of last year. And so I think that our branded performance, you know, I think continues to be very strong, but that private label offsets that so our overall performance sales out of the retail, I think that accurately reflects it. Now, category trends out of the retail stores, I mean, you get the Nielsen data as we do, and so you see those continue to be pretty strong overall.
Dexter
But for us, it's that mixed trade. Okay. Thanks.
Tom Palmer
And you mentioned a tough comp for LTOs next quarter. We see QSR volumes at least, you know, beginning to trend more favorably. Are you seeing those customers turning back towards or starting to plan limited time offers? And, you know, to what extent might those start to flow through in the next quarter or two?
Dexter
Yes, Tom.
Lamb Weston 's
I won't get into specifics on customers and LTOs. What I will say is, you know, there's renewed interest across many of our customers, but those obviously take some time to get through the innovation and then get it on menu. So more to come on that, but all's I'll say is there's some renewed interest in it.
Dexter
All right. Thank you.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.
Rob Dickerson
Great. Thank you so much. Yeah, so just in terms of the crop this year, it sounds like what you were saying in the prepared remarks is basically the crop maybe in your sourcing areas sounds about average this year, which is good. But just given the reduction in number of potatoes that went into the ground this year for this year's crop and kind of where we are in terms of the harvest timing, do you kind of currently find the demand-supply equation you know, fairly healthy, you know, at this point when you look at the overall broader crop? And then just secondly, you know, could others be maybe somewhat disadvantaged, you know, given their, you know, reemergence of demand, but maybe some varied regional supply sourcing? Thanks.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Rob, I think overall how I'll characterize it is right now based on, you know, our overall demand forecast, we're balanced from a raw need. I think the industry's kind of in the same spot. So, you know, as we do every year, as you know, the, our forecasts change, um, we quickly align that with our raw needs and our ag team does a great job canvassing our growing areas and ensure that, uh, uh, we're covered to service our customers. So I think everything's pretty balanced right now.
Rob Dickerson
Okay, great. Um, and then also, You know, we've heard recently, you know, a large part of yours has restarted construction on one of their plants, right? They were constructing it, they stopped construction, you know, when COVID hit, they're back, you know, building. I know, obviously, I'm only willing to say so much, but I'm just, you know, curious, you know, if you'd be willing to comment on just maybe like, you know, if that's a signal of confidence, you know, on the overall industry, right? Structural basis of the industry as we think about, you know, even going into calendar 21, because a lot of questions will be asked around utilization now. But, you know, if we're thinking out 12 to 18 months in the large comparators back building a plant, you know, it seemed to me that the industry is saying, yes, we're trying to get through this, but we also have to be prepared for when demand comes back because, you know, the industry overall isn't structurally impaired at this point. Thanks.
Dexter
Yeah, absolutely.
Lamb Weston 's
It's a vote of confidence for the category. We feel the same way. One of the main reasons for increasing capital is we're adding chopped and formed capacity. That product category has been growing over the years. We're evaluating You know, we're thinking about two years out, and as this thing returns back to normal, you know, I think everybody's going to start dusting off their plans and move the category forward. And I think it's absolutely a vote of confidence.
Rob Dickerson
Okay, great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.
Dexter
Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Lamb Weston 's
Morning, Adam.
Adam
Maybe kind of keying off of Rob's question just on the raw supply. I believe the contract rate in the Pacific Northwest this year was up about 3%. And I'm just trying to make sure when you say pricing stable in terms of your contract negotiations with your customers, is that pricing stable a net number or is that a gross number? And so we got to think about flat top line price and there should be a kind of low to mid single digit inflation on the potato cost side.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Adam, in terms of the pricing negotiations with customers, I think what we were speaking to is that generally the pricing negotiations were consistent with expectations. And so I think there was some concern that some had expressed on our last call that there might be some pricing pressure, and we just hadn't seen that. Now, recognize that in our global business unit, those big chain customers, we tend on average to have about a third of those contracts come up every year, and those contract structures are different. Some have cost pass-through elements. Some have just cost inflation elements and so forth. And so, you know, that it's, you know, fairly variable in terms of how those contracts work. But I think overall, I think the read is that pricing in our marketplace for sales continues to be in good shape, stable from our expectations. On the raw side, you know, the crop's in good shape, and we've got what we need to serve as our customers for this year.
Adam
Okay, that's helpful. And then the follow-up, just thinking about the SG&A line and any way to help frame what that can look like this year. I know you're probably keeping a very tight lid on a lot of discretionary spending and some things like T&E are fairly easy to control in the current environment, but what that could look like and corollary is any update on the ERP project in terms of timing and completion?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, Adam, this is Tom. You know, in terms of SG&A, we've, you know, early on, like we mentioned, you know, put a lid on stopped all non-discretionary spending and projects and, you know, travel, those kind of things, and we'll continue to do that as, you know, so in terms of levels of SG&A, I think we target around, you know, eight, nine percent of sales. And, you know, with that said, as things continue to improve, you know, there's some things we may choose to invest in within SG&A. But we'll manage that tightly like we have, and the team's done a good job putting a lid on costs of non-discretionary. In terms of the ERP, Yeah, I'll take that, Tom. In terms of the ERP, you know, we have implemented release one of that ERP, which covered our financial reporting, covered our maintenance in the plants, and covered our indirect procure-to-pay cycle. And that's been implemented and is now operating. And standard ERP exercise, not perfect, but not horrible. It's fine and operating well. The team's done a great job with it. In terms of release two, that impacts more customer-facing and inventory elements. And given the current environment, we're really stepped back from that. One, to let the key people in the business run the business in this challenging time. and two, just managing through the risk. So we're going through the assessment now to determine what the timing is to do that, but we haven't relaunched it at this point.
Dexter
Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you so much.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Brian Hunt with Wells Fargo Securities.
Brian Hunt
Thanks for your time this morning. My question has to do with your potato supply. You know, you had said coming into the year you were contracting down 20% to 25%, and you made some earlier comments that you're balanced from a raw perspective relative to your forecast. How much latitude do you have to catch up with demand with spot potatoes, you know, if you were to see demand come in stronger than your forecast?
Lamb Weston 's
You know, we have a, like we do every time this year, we have a pretty good idea of working with our growers, strategic growers, potential open potatoes available, and we make decisions. We made decisions this year already, you know, to make sure that we have raw available based on the changing forecast, and we'll continue to make those decisions throughout the course of you know, the next 60, 90, 120 days as things change. You know, so there is some flexibility in the system. You know, and the whole industry does kind of the same playbook. So, like I said, we've made some decisions to do some things to keep it balanced right now based on our latest thinking on how the demand is going to play out for the balance of the year. And we'll continue to evaluate it. And we have a great ag team that has a very good understanding of what's available in the market. So I have no concern that we'll be, if things improve dramatically, we have a plan in place to make sure we stay balanced.
Brian Hunt
Great. My next question is that, you know, you touched on LTOs and the potential, you know, and the margin opportunity that you've seen historically in LTOs. In your discussions in contracting for the upcoming year with your QSR customers, what is their mindset around LTOs? Is there potential for more of them or less of them year over year? Can you just touch on the potential quantity of LTOs on a year over year basis?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, I think the way to think about it is there was a period where A lot of customers of all different sizes were focused on menu simplification based on the environment that unfolded in the last six months. I think now that there's a return of demand, the mindset with some of our customers is share of occasion. You know, so that's leading towards renewed discussions on, you know, LTO activity and what that could look like for some of our customers. And every customer is different. So some of them are more aggressive on menu items than others. And, you know, the thing to remember is, you know, once those discussions start, it does take some time to get them in the marketplace and on menu.
Brian Hunt
And then my last question is, and you touched on this briefly, when you look at capital allocation, you talk about growth, returning cash to shareholders. Given the lower-capacity utilization in the industry, we could see there might be, from the outside looking in, opportunities to maybe make some capacity acquisitions at more favorable multiples than you have in the not-too-distant past. Can you touch on maybe what the M&A pipeline looks like today versus, you know, a year ago? And do you feel more confident in putting money to work on acquisitions versus returning it to shareholders? That's it for me. Thank you, Tom and Rob.
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, so, you know, consistent to what I've talked about in the past, one of our strategic pillars is invest for growth, and an important part of that is M&A. And We continue to canvas the industry. Even in the last six months, we're staying as in touch with opportunities as possible. It's an environment that may lead to some opportunistic M&A. The great news is Rob and his team have done a good job getting our you know, getting the revolver done in this environment and, you know, building some additional debt. So we got cash on the balance sheet, got a lot of firepower, and, you know, if the opportunity presents itself, you know, we're ready to play. So we continue to do everything we can to move something forward, and we're ready to go.
Dexter
Thank you for your comments. Yep.
Tom
We'll take our next question from Carla Casella with JP Morgan. Hi, this is Sarah Clark on for Carla Casella.
Operator
On your COVID-related costs, thanks for breaking that out in more detail. What percent of those do you expect to recur each quarter going forward throughout this year?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, this is Rob. That's so hard to determine because what you're trying to determine forecast there is how many infections you're going to have, where they're going to come on what line, and so how you shut that down. So I think that's a challenge to forecast. So, you know, the best that we can do is disclose what has happened and disclose enough of the detail, and then, you know, I'll let you do your own forecast on COVID in these spots.
Operator
Got it. Thank you. And then how are you evaluating your shelf space at retailers? Do you feel like you have the right skews at retail? And then how are you looking at this in the food service space as well?
Lamb Weston 's
Yeah, I think from a retail standpoint, we feel good about our shelf space and facing, as Rob mentioned, you know, the branded offerings on shelf are doing pretty well. And, you know, we're continuing evaluating shelf set. So we feel good about all that. In terms of the food service, I'm not quite following your question.
Operator
Just that's fine. The retail piece is fine. And then a last question. In terms of margin differential by product, have you ever broken out the difference between branded and private label margins?
Dexter
No, we don't.
Tom
Okay, thank you.
Dexter
Thank you.
Tom
That concludes today's question and answer session. Mr. Congolet, at this time I'll turn the conference back to you for any additional remarks.
Dexter Congolet
Thanks everyone for joining the call this morning. If you would like to set up a follow-up call, please email me and we can get something set up either today or for the next couple of days. Again, thanks for joining and this ends the call.
Dexter
Thanks.
Tom
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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